You searched for: Publishing Institution Kellogg Institute for International Studies Remove constraint Publishing Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies Political Geography Latin America Remove constraint Political Geography: Latin America Publication Year within 5 Years Remove constraint Publication Year: within 5 Years Topic Governance Remove constraint Topic: Governance
- Author: Juan Andrés Moraes
- Publication Date: 03-2015
- Content Type: Working Paper
- Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract: Polarization has been always identified as a problem for Latin American democracies. Yet its determinants remain largely undertheorized and without systematic evidence. This paper tackles this shortcoming with a new explanation where polarization is conceptualized as a mobilizational tool used by parties to deliver unequivocal signals to voters about their location in the policy space. The explanation holds that Parties’ strategies depend on the electoral context in which they compete, making volatility a crucial indicator of their behavior. Low-volatility contexts inhibit parties from seeking polarization due to potential electoral punishments by voters and the internal costs of programmatic change within the party organization. High volatility, however, increases the risk of electoral survival, decreasing the costs of seeking polarization. Here, volatility makes polarization more likely. Using time-series cross-sectional regression analysis for eighteen Latin American countries for 1995–2010, this paper provides robust statistical results to support the causal link between electoral volatility and polarization.
- Topic: Democratization, Demographics, Political Economy, Governance
- Political Geography: Latin America