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101. How Italians View Military Spending

Author:
Pierangelo Isernia, Rossella Borri, and Sergio Martini
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
On 16 March, a sweeping majority in the Italian Chamber of Deputies approved order 9/3491-A/35 committing the Italian government to raise the defence budget to 2 per cent of GDP.[1] Taken in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this decision strengthens Italy’s adherence to the commitment made by NATO countries in 2004 and reiterated at the 2014 NATO summit in Newport, Wales. The announcement comes after half a decade of increasing Italian defence spending. Having decreased from 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2010 to 1.2 per cent in 2015, Italy’s military expenditures started to grow again, reaching 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2020. This figure is still considerably lower than the UK’s 2.2 per cent or France’s 2 per cent, but higher than Germany’s and Spain’s 1.4 per cent.[2] To understand the broader context within which Italy has decided to renew its commitment to the NATO target, Italian public opinion should be factored in. In this respect, opinion polls conducted prior to the war in Ukraine can shed some light on Italian attitudes toward defence spending in general and the 2 per cent NATO pledge specifically.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Budget, and Military Spending
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

102. A Perfect Recipe for the Next Escalation on the Korean Peninsula

Author:
Lorenzo Mariani and Manuel Herrera
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
North Korea has been conducting regular missile tests as part of its weapons development programme over the past year. Put bluntly, this reflects the complete stalemate in denuclearisation talks following Biden’s election in the US and a stark reminder of the meagre results of the conciliatory strategy carried out by the former South Korean President Moon Jae-in. Hypersonic as well as short-range, intermediate-range and long-range ballistic missiles have all been part of this latest series of tests. On 24 March, North Korea claimed to have successfully launched a new modern intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), denominated Hwasong-17. While the entity of the vector has yet to be confirmed, if this allegation is proven true it would mark the first time an ICBM has been fired since 2017, breaking Pyongyang's self-imposed moratorium on such tests. The volley of tests has fuelled speculations that North Korea is gearing up for the launch of a larger weapon theoretically capable of reaching the US mainland.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, Nonproliferation, and Conflict Management
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

103. The US–Italy Economic Relations in a Divided World

Author:
Adriana Castagnoli
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In 2021, bilateral trade returned to the sustained pace it had prior to the Covid pandemic. Direct investment also grew – crucially, not just Italian investment in the United States but the other way round too. While Italy’s economic ties with Russia and China remain potential hotspots, Rome has never questioned its Atlantic orientation. Nevertheless, possible austerity policies following sanctions against Russia could spread social discontent that populist parties can exploit for consensus purposes in the 2023 general election, rekindling anti-Americanism rooted in different segments of Italian society.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Policy, Trade, and Energy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Italy, and United States of America

104. Russian Youth: Their Attitude to the Ruling Elite and Political Processes

Author:
Denis Volkov
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Young Russians are different from older generations. They are confident Internet users and thus have access to independent media and are exposed to free information and a variety of opinions. They show greater disillusionment with authorities, a greater degree of Westernisation of their tastes and more openness to the world. These differences are well observed in the results of the long-term sociological surveys undertaken by the Levada-Center, an independent polling centre in Moscow. Amidst the ongoing conflict between Russia and the West, Russian youth finds itself pressured between the Russian authorities on the one side, and sanctions from Western countries aimed at isolating Russia from the outside world.
Topic:
Sanctions, Public Opinion, Youth, Elites, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

105. The EU and the Ukraine War: Making Sense of the Rise of a “Geopolitical” Union

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
By ordering Russian armed forces into Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has arguably made the greatest blunder of his twenty-two-year long rule. The Russian president seems to have underestimated not just Ukraine’s capacity to resist the invasion, but also the resolve of the United States and its partners to oppose it.[1] If that is indeed the case, the greatest surprise must have come from the European Union.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

106. Russian Energy Exports and the Conflict in Ukraine: What Options for Italy and the EU?

Author:
Margherita Bianchi and Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Putin’s war on Ukraine has shaken the European Union to its core. Implications will be long lasting in numerous domains, but it is in the security and energy dimensions that concrete changes are already becoming evident as the EU fast tracks its strategy for energy diversification. The Russian invasion has drastically changed the European energy paradigm, with the new political absolute being a fast reduction of Europe’s overdependence on Russian gas. Diversifying energy supplies away from Russia is a means to tighten the economic noose around Putin, seeking to deprive the Kremlin of billions in energy revenue given that Russia continues to export oil, gas and coal to Europe at very high prices.
Topic:
Security, Sanctions, European Union, Gas, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy

107. Russia–Ukraine Talks and the Indispensable Role of the US and Europe

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Vladimir Putin’s imperialist war of conquest in Ukraine is about to enter its fifth week. Russia’s failure to shock and awe Ukraine’s government and armed forces into submission through a poorly executed Blitzkrieg has morphed into a slow and ever more brutal three-front campaign. While Russian forces struggle to make strides in the north and east, they have been more successful in the south, where they are about to deprive Ukraine from access to the Sea of Azov.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

108. Putting Development at the Centre of G20 Policy Agenda: Lessons for the T20

Author:
Daniele Fattibene and Alice Fill
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The G20 Development Working Group has gradually evolved throughout the years, following a haphazard and contradictory path. On the one hand, it has been progressively overshadowed by a sectoralisation of G20 activities, with several action tracks (i.e., the Finance Track) taking a more prominent role in the definition of the leaders’ priorities. On the other hand, its (unexploited) potential has increased due to the emergence of several global crises that have shown the importance of rekindling multilateral solutions at the G20 level. The T20 has a strong potential to boost G20 legitimacy on development cooperation worldwide, by drafting evidence-based and pragmatic policy proposals for the decision-makers. However, although often advocating for similar solutions, the Development Working Group and T20 have not necessarily fed into each other’s policy agendas, leading to misalignment and reducing their chances to influence other G20 tracks on crucial development issues such as development finance, food security or the global climate agenda.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Governance, G20, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

109. The Mian Channu Incident and the Enduring Risk of Nuclear Escalation between India and Pakistan

Author:
Manuel Herrera
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In an international context characterised by increasing concern over the risk of nuclear war triggered by the conflict in Ukraine, it is worth noting that incidents in other regions could also lead to nuclear escalation, either by design or miscalculation. A recent incident involving India and Pakistan is a case in point, albeit the event did not receive ample coverage, overshadowed by the news of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, and Escalation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, and India

110. Constraints for Engagement with China: Dutch Ports and the BRI

Author:
Vera Kranenburg and Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Rising US–China rivalry is shaping and constraining the relations between European states and China. The Netherlands is no exception and recent tensions with China have carried over to impact its trade and cooperative engagements with Beijing. The Netherlands never formally signed onto the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)[1] – the Chinese policy framework for international transport, communication and energy development. Nevertheless, the BRI is very relevant to the Netherlands, in particular for the Dutch port of Rotterdam and its ambition to preserve its role as a major logistical hub for trade with Europe.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, Engagement, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Netherlands, and United States of America

111. A Scramble for Gas: Qatari LNG and EU Diversification Plans

Author:
Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Amidst a worsening geopolitical and energy crisis in Europe, the EU is scrambling to increase liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports as one component of its larger objective to reduce its overdependence on Russian gas. In 2021, the EU imported 155 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from Russia (140 bcm via pipeline and 15 bcm of LNG). Under its REPowerEU initiative, the European Commission aims to increase LNG imports to replace 50 bcm of Russian gas by the end of 2022.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Gas, Diversification, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Qatar

112. Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Africa–EU Partnership on Migration and Mobility: A Developmental Perspective from West Africa

Author:
Aderanti Adepoju
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The far-ranging effects of COVID-19, and subsequent impacts on migration drivers, trends and governance, have already produced significant implications for the Africa–EU partnership on migration and mobility. The socio-economic consequences of the pandemic have been particularly deep in West Africa, with Nigeria being one of the most affected countries. The region is also one of the most relevant African contexts in terms of cross-border human mobility, with well-established migratory patterns both at a regional and inter-regional level. As COVID-19-induced restrictions and the related economic consequences continue to unfold, the partnership between the EU and the countries in Western Africa will have to recalibrate the balance between improving the livelihoods of local populations, fighting irregular migration and facilitating regular channels, so as to tap into the developmental potential of migration. While the current crisis presents new challenges for both Africa and Europe, the two parties would benefit from focusing their efforts on making migration part of the post-pandemic economic recovery and longer-term socioeconomic development. Paper prepared in the framework of the project “A New European Consensus on Asylum & Migration”.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Refugees, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Nigeria

113. Media and Securitisation: The Influence on Perception

Author:
Alberto Tagliapietra
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The relationship between media and perception is essential to securitisation processes. Through the adoption of specific wordings and narratives the media can and do influence the public perception of a given phenomenon as a challenge or even an existential threat to public security, economic prosperity, social stability or cultural homogeneity. Media narratives are exploited by political actors, which promote and/or instrumentalise securitised issues in order to present themselves as the only actors able to provide a solution. During the years of the “migration crisis”, many media outlets in Europe created a perception of the magnitude of migration phenomenon that had little basis in empirical data while also portraying it as inherently threatening. The securitisation to which migration was subjected led to a much worsened perception of migrants by the public and consequently to a greater political appeal of parties that made anti-immigration the core of their public discourse.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Mass Media, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

114. Global Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Capital Allocation Strategies Between Impact Ambitions and Measurement Challenges

Author:
Sara Lovisolo
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Responsible investment as a capital allocation strategy has evolved from its ethical and political origins to embrace science-based considerations and outcome-based approaches in the context of the urgent action required in response to climate change and the Sustainable Development Goals. This shift can pose both threats and opportunities to companies seeking to get access to a diversified investor base. The investment environment companies are faced with varies depending on the geographical context and the investment style of investors. In particular, the rise of passive investment – that is the replication of financial indices in the construction of fund portfolios – is an important tool for the integration of sophisticated environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in investment strategies. The US, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Africa present different levels of maturity and strengths in the space of responsible investment, calling for ad-hoc responses from investee companies. Across all jurisdictions the challenge of effectively measuring the impact of responsible investment is one investors and policymakers alike are still grappling with. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, July 2021.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Political Economy, Foreign Direct Investment, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

115. The Belt and Road Initiative and the Internationalisation of China's Scientific Power: The Case of Italy

Author:
Lorenzo Mariani
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
What are the elements and the impact of the inclusion of scientific cooperation within the 2019 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in support of the Belt and Road Initiative between Italy and China? Like many other developed countries, Italy has played a role in contributing to China’s growth as a science and technology (S&T) power. Most S&T bilateral collaborations are decade-long and predate the MoU, suggesting that the importance of the latter is largely symbolic. Nonetheless, the MoU of March 2019 has reinforced the process of centralisation of S&T collaborations as well as a public debate that has grown to include matters regarding 5G technology and public procurement involving Chinese technology. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI project “When Italy Embraces the BRI”.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, and Research
Political Geography:
Asia and Italy

116. One Belt One Voice: Chinese Media in Italy

Author:
Francesca Ghiretti and Lorenzo Mariani
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Chinese media are the voice of the Chinese Communist Party at home and abroad. It is no surprise therefore that collaborations between Chinese and foreign media have been attracting more international attention. One issue that has not been yet explored is the nature and implications of the inclusion of two important Italian media actors such as Rai (the state-run broadcasting company) and Ansa (Italy’s main press agency) in the Memorandum of Understanding signed by Italy in support of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2019. These deals fit in a broader picture of an Italian media environment that is being increasingly targeted by Chinese media. However, the impact that such an effort has had on the Italian public opinion has been very limited so far and the Italian media landscape keeps offering free and varied information. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI project “When Italy Embraces the BRI”.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Mass Media, Public Opinion, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

117. Silk Road Academic Connections: China–Italy Cooperation in Higher Education and Its Implications for the West

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Cooperation in higher education and research is a positive aspect of the broader Italy–China relationship as it contributes to the advancement of the scientific and cultural environment in both countries. China has invested considerable sums to promote cooperation and exchanges with the Italian academy, including through the establishment of a dozen Confucius Institutes and a number of Confucius Classrooms. Italian universities have set up academic partnerships with Chinese entities on almost every subject. These have improved Italy’s research outlook, but have also posed inevitable risks of self-censorship and kowtowing to Chinese wishes. Moreover, there has been a surge of academic sponsorships by Chinese firms, in particular ICT companies such as ZTE and Huawei, which raise further concerns for Italy’s security interests and cooperation with its Western allies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Education, Science and Technology, Higher Education, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

118. China in Italy: Risk Assessment and Preventive Solutions

Author:
Beatrice Gallelli and Lorenzo Mariani
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italy’s 2019 decision to sign a Memorandum of Understanding with China in support of the Belt and Road Initiative sparked a heated debate at home and abroad. The possibility of Italy upgrading its trade and investment relations with China through the shortcut of a political endorsement of President Xi Jinping’s flagship foreign-policy initiative was framed as either a heaven-sent opportunity or a serious strategic threat. Two years on, most of the concerns pointed out in the debate, especially regarding infrastructures, have proven unsubstantiated (although the economic opportunities for which the Italian Government wished have also failed to materialise). However, cooperation initiatives between Italian and Chinese entities in sectors often overlooked in the mainstream debate, such as media and academic partnerships, do present risks. The creation of an interagency China Information and Coordination Unit would help to prevent – or, at least, to minimise – such risks. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI project “When Italy Embraces the BRI”.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Education, Science and Technology, Mass Media, Foreign Direct Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

119. Unlocking European Defence. In Search of the Long Overdue Paradigm Shift

Author:
Arnout Molenaar
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The European Union’s range of new EU security and defence initiatives are ground-breaking, but they can only deliver on their potential if member states shift the paradigm towards truly thinking, acting and working together as Europeans, based on a strategic consensus regarding the future of European defence in the changing global context. The new Strategic Compass, to be adopted by the Council in early 2022, provides a framework to develop such a shared vision. It should help to operationalise the EU’s strategic autonomy in concrete terms, in mutual reinforcement and coherence with NATO, while seizing the opportunity to strike a new transatlantic bargain with the Biden Administration. In this context, the Union should agree on concrete steps forward to become a more active security provider abroad, reinforce its resilience and protection at home, enhance its operational readiness for different scenarios, and develop new capabilities through deeper cooperation while stepping up its cooperation with partners.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

120. Between Geopolitics and Geoeconomics: The Growing Role of Gulf States in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Adel Abdel Ghafar
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The role played by countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the Eastern Mediterranean is becoming increasingly important. This calls for an assessment of their evolving relationship with countries in the region, as well as their involvement in the Libyan conflict. Increased involvement by Gulf actors may inflame existing regional rivalries and geopolitical tensions. The interests of GCC countries in the Eastern Mediterranean are first analysed in the broader context of regional rivalries. Special attention is then devoted to Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Greece and Cyprus, while considering the role of other key regional actors such as Turkey and Israel. Recommendations on why and how the new US administration should intervene to decrease regional tensions are provided. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, January 2021.
Topic:
Economics, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Libya, Lebanon, Egypt, Cyprus, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations

121. The EU One Year after the Covid-19 Outbreak: An Italian-German Perspective

Author:
Nicoletta Pirozzi, Luca Argenta, and Paweł Tokarski
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The spreading of the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic and social consequences have radically changed the reality of the 27 EU member states. After scattered reactions at the beginning of the crisis, the EU has taken an unprecedented step towards cohesion and solidarity with the Next Generation EU. However, in order to ensure recovery and resilience, the EU will need to act simultaneously on three levels: end the pandemic in the shortest time possible through mass vaccination, implement structural reforms and address the challenges of tomorrow, including also digitalisation and the fight against climate change. To realise these objectives, citizens’ engagement and mobilisation would be essential, thus giving new urgency to the Conference on the Future of Europe, which should be turned from a consultation process into a tool for the relaunch of the Union post-Covid. Paper published as a follow-up to the 2020 edition of the German-Italian Strategic Forum on Europe, jointly organised by IAI, FES and SWP on 27 November 2020.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, European Union, Economy, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Italy

122. Implications of COVID-19 on East Africa–EU Partnership on Migration and Forced Displacement

Author:
Tsio Tadesse Abebe and Ottilia Anna Maunganidze
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
he COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the current state and prospects of partnership between the East African countries and the European Union on migration and forced displacement. The pandemic has exacerbated the root causes of migration and forced displacement. This is manifested by the continuation of irregular arrivals in Europe including from East Africa, after a brief decline in the initial phase of the COVID-19 response. The strong economic impact of the pandemic on the region has also disrupted the implementation of the Global Compact on Refugees that aspires to address forced displacement challenges through facilitating refugees’ self-reliance. These challenges require East African countries and the EU to work towards establishing a better migration governance system with a people-centred approach and with a view to addressing the root causes of migration. East African states should drive their migration and forced displacement policies in ways that benefit their citizens. This should include devising ways of engaging the EU in line with its proposed talent partnerships in its New Pact on Migration and Asylum. The EU should work towards easing the economic burden of countries in East Africa including through providing additional development support and debt cancellation. Paper prepared in the framework of the project “A New European Consensus on Asylum & Migration”.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, European Union, Refugees, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

123. Lake Chad: Another Protracted Crisis in the Sahel or a Regional Exception?

Author:
Bernardo Venturi and Luca Barana
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Common narratives on the Lake Chad Basin often focus on the nexus between conflict, development and climate change. In particular, the Lake’s situation attracts international coverage due to its shrinking size and the threat of multiple crises emanating from environmental degradation. This framework appears useful for donors and local governments, but the feedback loops among climate change, social marginalisation and conflict are not as straightforward. The problem is that the dominance of this analytical framework calls for policy response tools that are not always adequate. In the security field, the role of the Multinational Joint Task Force has been growing, but a stronger push in the sphere of governance is needed in order for it to gain legitimacy and improve its effectiveness on the ground. In the meantime, the Lake Chad Basin Commission has adopted some key policy tools to manage the natural resources in the area sustainably, but these initial steps must be followed by greater investment from Commission member states to advance implementation. An integrated regional approach remains the best way forward to tackle these complex dynamics. Paper prepared in the framework of the project “Water diplomacy and culture of sustainability. The Chad Basin”.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Water, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, Chad, Sahel, and Niger

124. From Tectonic Shifts to Winds of Change in North Africa and the Middle East: Europe’s Role

Author:
Nathalie Tocci, Riccardo Alcaro, Francesca Caruso, Silvia Colombo, Dario Cristiani, Andrea Dessì, Flavio Fusco, and Daniela Huber
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Winds of change are blowing in North Africa and the Middle East. They originate from Washington, where the new Biden administration is expected to abandon its predecessor’s zero-sum, erratic approach and take steps towards supporting regional balances and cooperation. Effects are visible especially in the Gulf, with the US pondering its options to re-activate nuclear diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates grudgingly agreeing to put their feud with Qatar on ice. One way or another, these winds of change are working their way through the Levant, the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. Admittedly, they are still feeble and can easily fade out like a morning breeze. Were that to happen, Europeans would be amongst the most affected – aside, of course, from regional populations themselves. It is now high time for the EU and its member states to leave the backseat they have (un)comfortably been sitting in for years, seize the opportunity of a cooperative US administration and work to play a more proactive role in North Africa and the Middle East commensurate with their considerable financial, diplomatic and military resources.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, North Africa, United States of America, Mediterranean, and Gulf Nations

125. Europe's Quest for Digital Sovereignty: GAIA-X as a Case Study

Author:
Simona Autolitano and Agnieszka Pawlowska
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
There is currently much discussion about “digital sovereignty” in Europe. While the term encompasses very diverse connotations, it refers to a broad concept involving data, technological, regulatory and political elements. Cloud computing represents one example of the concrete materialisation of the European Union’s quest for “digital sovereignty” – especially through the development of its GAIA-X project. It is too early to assess whether or not GAIA-X will definitively help the Union to achieve this much-desired goal; however, some challenges have already emerged along the way. Looking to the future, if the EU wants to achieve “digital sovereignty”, a different strategy to the one currently under discussion will be needed. Study produced as part of the project “La geopolitica del digitale”, March 2021.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Institutions, Digital Policy, and Digital Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

126. Technological Competition: Can the EU Compete with China?

Author:
Francesca Ghiretti
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The debate on technological development and the unfolding fourth technological revolution tends to neglect the role of the EU, relegating it to follower status. The leadership positions are occupied by the US and China, who compete with one another for technological supremacy. Yet, despite lagging behind in some areas, the EU is better placed than is often assumed and still stands a chance of guaranteeing the delivery of a technological revolution that is not only environmentally but also socially sustainable. This is critical in proposing a model of technological development alternative to that of China, in particular, and especially in such sectors as artificial intelligence, supercomputing and digital skills. Study produced as part of the project “La geopolitica del digitale”, March 2021.
Topic:
Politics, Science and Technology, European Union, Institutions, Strategic Competition, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

127. The Belt and Road Initiative in Italy: The Ports of Genoa and Trieste

Author:
Francesca Ghiretti
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In March 2019, Italy signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in support of PRC President Xi Jinping’s flagship infrastructure and connectivity project, the Belt and Road Initiative. The MoU was accompanied by a series of commercial agreements, including two between the ports of Genoa and Trieste and the state-owned enterprise China Communications Construction Company (CCCC). The European Union and the United States expressed concerns about the agreements as they feared that CCCC would eventually obtain a controlling share of the ports, not unlike that recently secured by the China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO) with Greece’s Port of Piraeus. However, existing legal constraints, an open international and national debate, and the vague nature of the agreements concerned have so far kept these fears from materialising. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI project “When Italy embraces the BRI”.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

128. China's Belt and Road Initiative in Italy: An Analysis of Financial Cooperation

Author:
Nicola Bilotta
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Financial cooperation is essential to boosting bilateral economic ties, providing firms with more effective instruments to operate in foreign markets. It should come as no surprise, then, that financial cooperation was a pillar of the 2019 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) reached between Italy and China in support of the latter’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, a preliminary analysis of BRI-related commercial agreements between Italian financial institutions and their Chinese counterparts shows that they have not resulted in any ground-breaking development. These Memoranda have apparently just added a “BRI” badge to pre-existing trends of collaboration. The BRI-related MoUs in the field of financial cooperation do not, for the time being at least, justify concerns that China may gain an economic foothold in Italy large enough to win it much political influence. A more realistic risk is that these MoUs may undermine a common European approach to China, weakening the negotiating stance of the European Union’s. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI project “When Italy embraces the BRI”.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Economy, Governance, Finance, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

129. Natural Gas in South-east Asia: Key Trends and Long-term Outlook

Author:
Luca Franza and Beni Suryadi
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Given the increasing gas demand and declining domestic supply, countries in South-east Asia are bracing themselves to become net gas importers and are studying ways to enhance their security of supply. LNG will be the preferred source of gas, thanks to its flexibility and widespread availability at competitive prices in global markets. However, concerns related to excessive gas import dependency might reduce appetite for additional gas usage in South-east Asia. This could mean that coal would have a larger role, which is bad news for climate change. Countries in the ASEAN region need policies to achieve balanced, reliable, secure and cost-effective energy supply, a pre-requisite for the region’s ambitious economic development plans. A combination of solid local policies, investment by international players in the region and stability in global gas markets would enable gas to play a positive role in South-east Asia, which is a fast-growing region and an increasingly important catalyst of global energy market developments. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, May 2021.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

130. CBDCs for Dummies: Everything You Need to Know about Central Bank Digital Currency (And Why You Shouldn’t Be Afraid of It)

Author:
Nicola Bilotta
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
“No cash accepted in this store”. What might seem to some like science fiction is on its way to becoming reality. The rise of non-cash payments is a global phenomenon, although moving at different speeds around the world. To keep up with the digitalisation of payments (and of the economy), many central banks are exploring the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), a digital form of cash. Despite being confined to a technical discussion among experts, when (rather than if) launched, CBDCs concerns us all. Thus, raising awareness of what CBDCs are, and of their key economic and political dimensions, is crucial to ensure that citizens are not only passive spectators. This paper has the ambition to provide (non-expert) readers with straightforward and simple answers to some of the many questions they may have around CBDCs. It sets the ground to better understand what CBDCs are (and are not), their drivers and their possible design. It will explore the impact of CBDC systems on privacy, the geo-strategic drivers of CBDCs and the possible rivalry between public and private money. Paper prepared in the framework of a research effort on the risks and the opportunities related to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) with the support of Intesa Sanpaolo and the Bank of Italy.
Topic:
Political Economy, Governance, European Union, Finance, Currency, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

131. US Credibility and the Afghanistan Withdrawal

Author:
Riccardo Perissich
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Whatever one may think of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, a decision that President Biden shared with his predecessor Donald Trump, most observers on the two sides of the Atlantic seem to agree that both the planning and the execution phases of the withdrawal were botched. Europeans in particular, including the ever-faithful US allies in the UK, complain about not having been adequately consulted or involved in the decision and execution of the withdrawal. Whatever the merits of this debate, it has inevitably led to fundamental questions about US foreign policy and its future trajectories. After four years of Trump, many in Europe are legitimately concerned. Old and by now familiar academic debates about Washington’s priorities, credibility and handling of global affairs have resurfaced as a result. The underlining question is: to what foreign policy tribe does Biden belong? Is he an optimist or a pessimist? A realist or an idealist? A liberal internationalist or a nationalist? Is he a Wilson or a Roosevelt and if the answer leans towards latter, which of the two Roosevelts’ are we referring to?
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States of America

132. Twenty Years Later: Why 9/11 Has Not Been a Second Pearl Harbor

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In the immediate aftermath of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, an overwhelming majority of commentators drew a parallel with the surprise blitz by Imperial Japan against the US Pacific fleet in Hawaii’s Bay of Pearl Harbor, on 7 December 1941. The comparison rested on two pillars. The first had its roots in historical analogy and symbolic impact. The Pearl Harbor attack was the closest precedent of an aggression against the United States on its soil. The fact that the United States was caught by surprise, combined with the considerable toll in human lives exacted by the aggressors (more than two thousand people died in Pearl Harbor and almost three thousand on 9/11), lent legitimacy to such comparison. As all US citizens at the time would forever recall what they were doing when news of the Pearl Harbor attack came through, so do all US citizens (and not only) remember what they were busy with when the image of the Twin Towers wrapped in flames appeared on TV screens on that Tuesday back in 2001. The second reasoning underlying the parallel between Pearl Harbor and 9/11 concerned the impact on US domestic politics and, consequently, foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, History, and 9/11
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, North America, and United States of America

133. An International Digital Yuan: (Vane) Ambitions, (Excessive) Alarmism and (Pragmatic) Expectations

Author:
Nicola Bilotta
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Days after the European Central Bank (ECB) publicly disclosed its roadmap for a digital euro project on 24 July, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) published a white paper describing the advancements of its plan for a digital yuan (e-CNY). While the EU roadmap outlines an investigation phase which will end in five years, China has already introduced several pilot experiments for its e-CNY. In June 2021, the e-CNY was employed in more than 70.7 million transactions for a value of 34.5 billion yuan by 20.8 million retail users and 3.5 million corporate users.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Political Economy, Governance, Finance, Currency, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

134. The World After the Pandemic: European Unity and the Challenge of Reviving Multilateralism

Author:
Sonia Bianconi
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Covid-19 has dramatically re-focussed the world’s attention on the adverse implications of globalisation. Coming on the heels of the 2008 financial crisis, the global pandemic has further weakened the image and credibility of the United States, causing the West to lose appeal compared to a more authoritarian but equally efficient East.
Topic:
Globalization, Politics, European Union, Multilateralism, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

135. Covid-19 and the International Liberal Order: Goodbye “Global”, Hello “Regional”?

Author:
Irene Paviotti
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Covid-19 crisis is broadly recognised as a watershed moment in world history, prompting a radical rethink of social norms and accelerating a number of pre-existing geopolitical trends. When it comes to globalisation and multilateralism, two defining features of the current international order, the pandemic has accelerated a move towards regionalism on the one hand and clearly exposed the shortcomings of an unequal multilateral system on the other.
Topic:
Globalization, Health, Political Economy, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

136. Europe and Covid-19: Never Waste a Good Crisis

Author:
Chiara Andreazza
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
"Democracy is based on the promise of social mobility and improvement, a path that leads to increasing well-being, particularly for the middle class. If incomes fall and inequalities sharpen, then democracies collapse.” Italian philosopher, Massimo Cacciari, used these words to describe the present crisis that western liberal democracies are facing. Years have passed since the first signs of citizen distrust towards social institutions and governing elites became apparent. Such sentiments have led to an increase in populist politics and authoritarian tendencies, characterised by charming leaders and strongman politics, which in turn have challenged certain elements of liberal democracy.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Democracy, Legitimacy, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

137. Covid-19 and the Multilateral System: What Role for the EU?

Author:
Roberto Baccarini
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Covid-19 represents a critical juncture for the European Union. The crisis catalysed the weakening of the post-Cold War international order and the emergence of a multipolar world, presenting Europe with significant, even existential challenges.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Multilateralism, Institutions, Transatlantic Relations, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

138. G20, COP26 and the Climate Emergency: Insights from Italian Public Opinion

Author:
Margherita Bianchi and Giulia Gozzini
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Climate change is increasingly understood as the defining challenge of our times. Multiple polls underscore the extent to which citizens and government elites are united in identifying the climate emergency as the primary threat to human wellbeing and development. While prescriptions to tackle the climate crisis may diverge, the pandemic has increased the imperative to make human development and economic growth more responsive to the environment and natural ecosystems. Amidst promises to “build back better” in the wake of Covid-19, much anticipation is understandably being directed at the COP26 summit in Glasgow, that began on 1 November, one day after the conclusion of the G20 Rome summit.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Energy Policy, United Nations, Natural Resources, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

139. Europe's Polish Question

Author:
Riccardo Perissich
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
European history has on several occasions been confronted with a “Polish question”. It did not always end well, especially for Poland. This time around, the issue that has placed the Polish government led by the populist Law and Justice party (PiS), the institutions of the EU and most of its member states at loggerheads is unlikely to end in bloodshed, but it nevertheless remains dangerous. The Commission and the European Court of Justice (ECJ) have established that recent reforms to the Polish judiciary undermine the independence of the courts and the principle of a separation of powers; among them the creation of a disciplinary body under political control that can censure Polish judges. The Polish Supreme Court, conversely, has responded that such ruling is incompatible with the country’s constitution. What makes the question particularly complicated is that it is tri-dimensional.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Regional Integration, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

140. Crowdsourcing for Climate-Smart Agriculture: Insights from the Bolivian Andes

Author:
Rafael Lindemann Taborga
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The vast majority of family and smallholder farmers in developing countries do not have access to locally relevant weather forecasts, undermining their capacity to adapt to climate change. Anticipating climate related risks reduces farmers’ vulnerability as they can plan ahead and limit the damage caused by storms, extreme temperatures, pests and other weather-related events. A recent pilot experiment in the Bolivian Andes – run by a consortium of international and national non-profit organisations, research centres and Bolivia’s productive development bank – found that encouraging smallholder farmers to crowdsource agro-climatic information enhances the accuracy of local weather forecasts, increasing their adoption of climate-smart practices. As a cost-effective system, crowdsourcing can be harnessed to broaden the coverage of agro-climatic information services, while enhancing their local relevance by responding to actual needs. The basic principle of crowdsourcing is that of outsourcing a task traditionally performed by a designated agent to individuals, groups of people or a platform that share a common goal. Encouraging smallholder farmers to utilise technology to send reports from their farmlands fosters a sense of ownership and collaboration, thereby favouring forms of collective knowledge production and sharing.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Bolivia and United States of America

141. The Venezuelan Oil Industry Collapse: Economic, Social and Political Implications

Author:
Rafael Ramírez
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Venezuela’s hydrocarbons industry has completely collapsed. Seven years of mismanagement and political purges, the dismantling of Petróleos de Venezuela S.A.’s (PDVSA) managerial structures and deviations in longstanding company policy implemented by the government of Nicolás Maduro since 2014 have undermined the sector and destabilised the national economy.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Economy, and Industry
Political Geography:
Venezuela, North America, and United States of America

142. The AUKUS Partnership: A Wake-up Call for Europe

Author:
Gabriele Abbondanza
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Now that some dust has settled over the surprise announcement of AUKUS on 16 September, it is possible to analyse the implications of this partnership not just for its members, but for Europe as well.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Politics, European Union, Partnerships, Maritime, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

143. Diaspora Mobilisation and the Arab Uprisings: Opportunities and Limits of the "Back Home Effect"

Author:
Silvia Colombo and Giulia Gozzini
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Arab emigration has been growing rapidly in recent years. Approximately 26 million citizens from Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries lived abroad in mid-2020. Equivalent to 10 per cent of the international migrant stock, this figure accounts for about 6 per cent of the total population of the region, a proportion that is twice as high as the world average. Just over half – or 53 per cent – of these migrants remain in the MENA, mostly in the Arabian Peninsula, whereas Europe and North America stand out as the primary destination for the remaining percentage of MENA diasporas. Most of the literature considers diasporas as examples of transnational communities, meaning that they belong to two or more societies at the same time and display multiple forms of identification.[4] In the age of globalisation, identity maintenance has been helped by cheap air travels (Covid-permitting) and phone calls, the Internet and satellite television.[5] These factors have also facilitated the emergence of diasporas as important players at the domestic political level in origin countries (the so-called “back home effect”), through return migration, external voting, political mobilisation and remittances.[6] Nevertheless, systematic analysis of diaspora interactions with domestic politics in the MENA is lacking, apart from the cases of the Palestinian and Kurdish diasporas.
Topic:
Migration, Authoritarianism, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Mediterranean

144. The Italian G20 Presidency: A Post-Summit Assessment

Author:
Ettore Greco
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Was Prime Minister Mario Draghi correct in describing the G20 Rome Summit held under the Italian presidency a “success”? Or, rather, was UN Secretary-General António Guterres right to highlight his dissatisfaction with the Summit’s outcome? Assessments of the Italian G20 presidency depend on where the bar is set, what terms of reference are adopted and what relevance or urgency is given to each individual dossier. At the same time, the evolving international context also has to be taken into consideration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Political Economy, Governance, and G20
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

145. Four Scenarios for the Iran Nuclear Deal

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
After a hiatus of over five months, negotiations to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, have finally resumed in Vienna. Struck in July 2015 by Iran and a group of six powers – France, Germany and the UK plus China, Russia and the US, as well as the EU (E3/EU+3)–, the JCPOA placed limits on Iranian nuclear activities, while also introducing a highly intrusive inspection regime by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The deal is in a comatose state due to former US President Donald Trump’s decision to unilaterally pull out of the agreement and re-adopt all sanctions on Iran in May 2018. In response, since May 2019 Iran has progressively reduced its compliance with its non-proliferation obligations under the deal.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Disarmament, Nonproliferation, Transatlantic Relations, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

146. Europe’s Strategic Compass: Merits and Shortcomings

Author:
Riccardo Perissich
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Europe’s “Strategic Compass” proposes a number of initiatives to enable the EU to act in the security and defence domain and confront the many challenges impacting European interests. The document, prepared by the European External Action Service (EEAS) under the responsibility of Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative and Vice President of the Commission, will be debated by defence and foreign ministers over the next few months and subsequently adopted as an official strategy statement sometime during the French Presidency of the European Council next year.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Politics, Military Affairs, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

147. The Italy–France Treaty is an Example of Wise Diplomacy

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The recently concluded Treaty on Enhanced Cooperation between France and Italy[1] has created some interest in Europe. Dubbed the “Quirinale Treaty” after the sumptuous residential palace of the Italian president of the Republic where the signing ceremony was held, the agreement is indeed a significant development. It could preside over an expansion and deepening of the bilateral relationship, lead to a degree of rebalancing in Europe’s power relations and usher in a new era of greater coordination between Paris and Rome in EU negotiating formats. These three elements – the bilateral dimension, Europe’s balance of power and EU policymaking processes – make up the rationale of the treaty and are consequently worth analysing separately.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Italy

148. If you Can't Beat Them, Join Them: Should States Embrace Bitcoin?

Author:
Jesse Colzani
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Bitcoin – the most secure and well-established technology to store value[1] – was created in 2008 to challenge the state’s centralised monopoly on money. It is a digital currency worth 1 trillion US dollars that knows no boundaries and is not controlled by any central authority. Although it is considered a threat to the established order, countries and institutional actors are gradually realising Bitcoin can also be a tool to advance their economic and geopolitical interests. Today, governments find themselves in the difficult position of having to decide whether Bitcoin should be integrated into their economies and governance structures or if they should continue to oppose, block or seek to co-opt the digital currency. But to understand Bitcoin and make an informed decision, one has to first appreciate the different components of its ecosystem.
Topic:
Political Economy, Governance, Currency, Digital Policy, and Bitcoin
Political Geography:
Global Focus

149. De-Securitising and Re-Prioritising EU-Iraq Relations

Author:
Flavio Fusco
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Located at the heart of the Middle East, connecting the Levant to the Persian Gulf, Iraq has always been at the centre of regional dynamics. Yet, the country is today reduced to a quasi-failed state fundamentally damaged in its political, social and economic fabric, with long-term consequences that trace a fil rouge from the 2003 US-led invasion to the emergence of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) and the country’s current structural fragility.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and United States of America

150. COVID-19 and the Global Vaccine Race

Author:
Lorenza Errighi
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
If 2020 was the year of “mask diplomacy”, as countries raced to tackle the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and acquire the necessary protective gear and equipment, 2021 is likely to be remembered as the year of “vaccine diplomacy”. Growing competition between states to secure the necessary quantities of vaccines to inoculate their population has already become an established feature of the post-COVID international system and such trends are only likely to increase in the near future. It normally takes up to a decade to transition from the development and testing of a vaccine in a laboratory to its large-scale global distribution. Despite current challenges, the speed of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns is unprecedented. To put an end to the current pandemic – which in one year has led to the loss of 2.6 million lives and triggered the worst economic recession since the Second World War – the goal is to ensure the widest immunisation of the world population in a timeframe of 12 to 18 months. In this context, COVID vaccines emerge as instruments of soft power, as they symbolise, on the one hand, scientific and technological supremacy and, on the other, means to support existing and emerging foreign policy partnerships and alliances with relevant geopolitical implications. From their experimentation in laboratories, to their purchase and distribution, the vaccine has emerged as a significant tool for competition between powers, often associated with the promotion of competing developmental and governance models across third countries.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus