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2. Taking Stock of the Taliban’s Perspectives on Peace
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? On 29 February 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement meant to prompt peace talks between the militant group and the Afghan government. Many issues have delayed those talks, including widespread concerns about the Taliban’s willingness to compromise in a political settlement ending the war. Why does it matter? The U.S.-Taliban deal opened a fragile window of opportunity to settle the world’s deadliest conflict. But for talks among Afghans to progress, the Taliban will need to move beyond vague governing principles and put forth concrete negotiating positions on reconciliation, power sharing and governance. What should be done? The Taliban should swiftly determine clear negotiating positions and be prepared to debate – and eventually reach compromises – on these as intra-Afghan talks unfold. The U.S. and other donors should leverage prospects of post-transition assistance as encouragement, while the Afghan government and civil society should engage the group and its ideas.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Non State Actors, Taliban, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America
3. Southern Philippines: Tackling Clan Politics in the Bangsamoro
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Elections in 2022 will bring an autonomous regional government to the Bangsamoro, a part of the southern Philippines long riven by rebellion. To prepare for the 2014 peace deal’s last test, the area’s interim self-rule entity needs to accommodate the big families that dominate its politics. What’s new? One year after taking office, following a landmark peace agreement, the Bangsamoro Transition Authority is trying to set the stage for regional stability and durable peace in Muslim Mindanao. In doing so, it needs to deal with powerful political clans that may provoke tensions in the run-up to 2022 elections. Why does it matter? Clans are predominant in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region’s politics, which could lead to tensions with the new authority. Confrontations among armed families could reverse peace process gains, as could a falling-out between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, the former rebel group, and clans if the transition goes awry. What should be done? The Bangsamoro transitional government should create a strong regional institution that is pragmatic in finding arrangements with political families and capable of curbing inter-clan feuding as well as overcoming clan-linked patronage networks. Donors should support efforts to ensure the state’s primacy over kinship interests through a broad funding portfolio.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, Peace, and Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Philippines and Asia-Pacific
4. South Sudan Keeping Faith with the IGAD Peace Process
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- For more than eighteen months, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the regional body mediating peace negotiations to end South Sudan’s civil war, has struggled to secure a deal in the face of deep regional divisions and the parties’ truculence. To overcome these challenges, it announced a revised, expanded mediation – “IGAD-PLUS” – including the African Union (AU), UN, China, U.S., UK, European Union (EU), Norway and the IGAD Partners Forum (IPF). The initiative is designed to present a united international front behind IGAD to the warring sides but so far it has failed to gain necessary backing from the wider international community, much of which is disillusioned with both IGAD and the South Sudanese. Rather than distance itself from IGAD, the international community needs to support a realistic, regionally-centred strategy to end the war, underpinned by coordinated threats and inducements. Supporting IGAD-PLUS’ efforts to get the parties’ agreement on a final peace deal in the coming weeks is the best – if imperfect – chance to end the conflict and prevent further regionalisation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Treaties and Agreements, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa
5. Left in the Cold? The ELN and Colombia's Peace Talks
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Whether the National Liberation Army (ELN) joins the current peace process is one of the biggest uncertainties around Colombia's historic opportunity to end decades of deadly conflict. Exploratory contacts continue, and pressure to advance decisively is growing, as the Havana negotiations with the larger Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) approach a decisive point. However, hopes fresh negotiations with the second insurgency were imminent were repeatedly dashed in 2013. Agreeing on an agenda and procedures that satisfy the ELN and are consistent with the Havana frame-work will not be easy. The ELN thinks the government needs to make an overture or risk ongoing conflict; the government believes the ELN must show flexibility or risk being left out. But delay is in neither's long-term interest. A process from which the ELN is missing or to which it comes late would lack an essential element for the construction of sustainable peace. Both sides, therefore, should shift gears to open negotiations soonest, without waiting for a perfect alignment of stars in the long 2014 electoral season.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, War on Drugs, Insurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and Latin America
6. Turkey and the PKK: Saving the Peace Process
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The peace process to end the 30-year-old insurgency of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) against Turkey's government is at a turning point. It will either collapse as the sides squander years of work, or it will accelerate as they commit to real convergences. Both act as if they can still play for time – the government to win one more election, the PKK to further build up quasi-state structures in the country's predominantly- Kurdish south east. But despite a worrying upsurge in hostilities, they currently face few insuperable obstacles at home and have two strong leaders who can still see the process through. Without first achieving peace, they cannot cooperate in fighting their common enemy, the jihadi threat, particularly from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Increasing ceasefire violations, urban unrest and Islamist extremism spilling over into Turkey from regional conflicts underline the cost of delays. Both sides must put aside external pretexts and domestic inertia to compromise on the chief problem, the Turkey-PKK conflict inside Turkey.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia
7. Mali : dernière chance à Alger
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Alors que le Nord du Mali connait un inquiétant regain de violence, les négociations de paix à Alger constituent une chance unique de sortie de crise. Mais après deux mois de discussions, la paix semble encore loin. Le gouvernement malien et les groupes armés engagés dans les négociations peinent à trouver un terrain d'entente. Des groupes influents et radicaux qui manquent à la table des négociations sont tentés de faire dérailler le processus par la violence. La résolution du conflit passe par l'articulation complexe d'intérêts divergents qui touchent à la sécurité du Sahara, à la nature de l'Etat malien et aux équilibres locaux entre des communautés divisées. Face aux affrontements armés, la tentation est grande d'aller vite et de signer un accord à minima garantissant la sécurité à court terme. La précipitation est mauvaise conseillère. Il faut se donner les moyens et le temps de construire les fondements d'une paix durable.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa
8. Gaza and Israel: New Obstacles, New Solutions
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Israel and Hamas are locked again in combat likely to yield – beyond tragic life and property loss – a return to a destructive status quo. The immediate triggers were the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli yeshiva students, for which Israel holds Hamas responsible, and the revenge torture and murder of a Palestinian teen by vigilante Israeli Jews. The nature and extent of Hamas's involvement in the initial obscenity remains unclear, but the attack's consequences are anything but. Since Israel launched Operation Protective Edge on 8 July, 168 Palestinians have been killed (80 per cent civilians, a fifth of whom were children) and about 1,150 wounded. Some 1,000 rockets have been launched toward Israel, of which about 200 were intercepted by the Iron Dome defence system. Previous rounds ended with each side claiming at best a Pyrrhic victory, because Israel can achieve lasting stability only when Gaza does, and vice versa. Breaking this pattern is even more urgent today, because the stakes of this escalation could be higher.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Islam, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Israel
9. Water Pressures in Central Asia
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Water has long been a major cause of conflict in Central Asia. Two states – Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – have a surplus; the other three say they do not get their share from the region's great rivers, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya, which slice across it from the Tien Shan, Pamir Mountains, and the Hindu Kush to the Aral Sea's remains. Pressures are mounting, especially in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The population in Central Asia has increased by almost ten million since 2000, and limited arable land is being depleted by over-use and outdated farming methods. Extensive corruption and failing infrastructure take further toll, while climate change is likely to have long-term negative consequences. As economies become weaker and states more fragile, heightened nationalism, border disputes, and regional tensions complicate the search for a mutually acceptable solution to the region's water needs. A new approach that addresses water and related issues through an interlocking set of individually more modest bilateral agreements instead of the chimera of a single comprehensive one is urgently needed.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, and Water
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan
10. Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Negotiations underway since late 2012 between Turkey's government and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) are stalling. A ceasefire announced on 23 March 2013 remains precarious, as maximalist rhetoric gains renewed traction on both sides. While the PKK should be doing more to persuade Ankara that it wants a compromise peace, the government has a critical responsibility to fully address the longstanding democratic grievances of Turkey's Kurds. One reason it frequently gives for its hesitation is fear of a nationalist backlash. In fact, the peace process has already demonstrated how willing mainstream Turks would be to accept steps towards democratisation. A much bigger risk for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), as it heads into a two-year cycle of local, presidential and parliamentary elections, would be if the three-decade-old conflict plunges into a new cycle of violence.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Peace Studies, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan
11. Transitional Justice and Colombia's Peace Talks
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- If the Santos administration and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) are to lay the foundations for lasting peace as they continue to make head-way toward successfully concluding talks underway since late 2012, they need to agree on a clear, credible and coherent plan for dealing with human rights abuses committed by all sides. This is not easy. Any sustainable agreement must be acceptable well beyond just the two parties. Finding common ground between the guerrillas, the government, the critics of the peace talks, victims and a public largely unsym- pathetic to FARC would be difficult at the best of times but will be even harder on the cusp of the 2014 electoral cycle. However, with courts, Congress and voters all having important roles to play in ratifying and implementing transitional justice measures, both parties' long-term interest in a stable transition should outweigh the costs of agreeing to a deal that goes beyond their own narrow preferences. Otherwise, flagging popular support, political controversy and legal challenges risk undermining both justice and peace.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, Peace Studies, Torture, Treaties and Agreements, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Colombia
12. Toward a Political Settlement in Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A negotiated political settlement is a desirable outcome to the conflict in Afghanistan, but current talks with the Taliban are unlikely to result in a sustainable peace. There is a risk that negotiations under present conditions could further destabilise the country and region. Debilitated by internal political divisions and external pressures, the Karzai government is poorly positioned to cut a deal with leaders of the insurgency. Afghanistan's security forces are ill-prepared to handle the power vacuum that will occur following the exit of international troops. As political competition heats up within the country in the run-up to NATO's withdrawal of combat forces at the end of 2014, the differing priorities and preferences of the parties to the conflict – from the Afghan government to the Taliban leadership to key regional and wider international actors – will further undermine the prospects of peace. To avoid another civil war, a major course correction is needed that results in the appointment of a UN-mandated mediation team and the adoption of a more realistic approach to resolution of the conflict.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Treaties and Agreements, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban
13. The Philippines: Local Politics in the Sulu Archipelago and the Peace Process
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Politics in the Sulu archipelago could be an unforeseen stumbling block for a negotiated peace with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in the southern Philippines. So far the presumed spoilers have been Christian settlers, conservative nationalists, and recalcitrant members of the other insurgency in the Muslim south, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). The islands off the coast of Mindanao have been all but forgotten. But the provincial governors of Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi, although Muslim, are wary of any agreement that would allow the MILF, dominated by ethnically distinct groups from Central Mindanao, to extend its sway and jeopardise the patronage system they enjoy with Manila. The challenge for the government of President Benigno Aquino III is to find a way to offer more meaningful autonomy to the MILF and overcome differences between the MILF and MNLF without alienating powerful clan leaders from the Sulu archipelago with a capacity to make trouble.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Philippines
14. The P5 +1, Iran and the Perils of Nuclear Brinkmanship
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West have had their share of dashed expectations, but even by this peculiar standard, the recent diplomatic roller coaster stands out. Brimming with hope in Istanbul, negotiators crashed to earth in Baghdad, a few weeks later. That was not unexpected, given inflated hopes, mismatched expectations and – most hurtful – conviction on both sides that they had the upper hand. But if negotiations collapse now, it is hard to know what comes next. Washington and Brussels seem to count on sanctions taking their toll and forcing Iran to compromise. Tehran appears to bank on a re-elected President Obama displaying more flexibility and an economically incapacitated Europe balking at sanctions that could boomerang. Neither is likely; instead, with prospects for a deal fading, Israeli pressure for a military option may intensify. Rather than more brinkmanship, Iran and the P5+1 (UN Security Council permanent members and Germany) should agree on intensive, continuous, technicallevel negotiations to achieve a limited agreement on Iran's 20 per cent enrichment.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Middle East
15. Setting Kosovo Free: Remaining Challenges
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Kosovo has implemented much of the Ahtisaari plan – the blueprint for its democracy, providing substantial rights for Serbs and other minorities – and deserves to be fully independent, but there should be no slippage, and remaining parts of the plan should be honoured. The Pristina government mostly abides by it, and many Serbs south of the Ibar River now accept its authority, obey its laws and take part in political life in a way unimaginable four years ago. These achievements are threatened, however, by the tense Kosovo-Serbia relationship, declining Serb numbers and Pristina's frustration at its inability to extend its sovereignty to the Serb-majority northern areas and to achieve full international recognition. A surge in ethnically-motivated attacks shows peace is fragile. The government should remain committed to the Ahtisaari requirement for minorities. But the plan was not meant to work in isolation and cannot be separated from the overall Kosovo-Serbia relationship. Belgrade needs to earn Pristina's trust and acquiescence for its continued involvement on Kosovo territory, especially the south.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, and Pristina
16. Colombia: Peace at Last?
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After decades of failed negotiations and attempts to defeat the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas and the smaller National Liberation Army (ELN) militarily, a political solution to the Western Hemisphere's oldest conflict may be in sight. Following a year of secret contacts, formal peace talks with FARC are to open in Oslo in October 2012 and continue in Havana. They may be extended to the ELN. There seems a firmer willingness to reach an agreement, as the government realises military means alone cannot end the conflict and FARC appears to recognise that the armed struggle permits survival but little else. With no ceasefire in place, both sides must act with restraint on the battlefield to generate immediate humanitarian improvements. And they will need to balance the requirements of fast, discreet negotiations and those of representativeness and inclusion. The government and the guerrillas have the historic responsibility to strike a deal, but only strong social and political ownership of that deal can guarantee that it leads to the lasting peace that has been elusive for so long.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Civil War, Government, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Armed Struggle, and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and Latin America
17. Palestinian Reconciliation: Plus ÇA Change...
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Hamas and Fatah surprised all with their announcement of a reconciliation accord. What had been delayed since Hamas took over Gaza in 2007 and Palestinian Authority (PA) President Abbas asked Salam Fayyad to form a government in the West Bank was done in Cairo in hours. Shock was matched by uncertainty over what had been agreed and the course it would take. Would the factions produce a national strategy and unify fractured institutions? Or would the agreement codify the status quo? Even some of the more pessimistic scenarios were optimistic. Reconciliation stumbled at its first hurdle, naming a prime minister – though that is not the only divisive issue. Neither side wants to admit failure, so the accord is more likely to be frozen than renounced, leaving the door slightly ajar for movement. Palestinian parties but also the U.S. and Europe need to recognise that reconciliation is necessary to both minimise the risk of Israeli-Palestinian violence and help produce a leader- ship able to reach and implement peace with Israel.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Arab Countries
18. The Philippines: A New Strategy for Peace in Mindanao?
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Philippine government is experimenting with a creative but risky strategy to bring peace to Mindanao. It has three goals: demonstrate that good governance in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is possible through a two-year reform program; bring separate discussions with two insurgencies, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the much larger, better-armed Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) together; and hammer out the territory and powers of a future Moro “sub-state” in peace talks with the MILF. Until now, the government has not made clear how the three components fit together, but it may reveal its hand – at least in part – in mid-August 2011, when it is widely expected to present a new proposal to the MILF. After President Benigno S. “Noynoy” Aquino III took office in June 2010, he said that resolving the conflict in Mindanao was a priority, and the current occupants of the Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process (OPAPP) are determined to find the formula for peace that eluded their predecessors. The idea of “convergence” is the result.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Philippines
19. Curb Your Enthusiasm: Israel and Palestine after the UN
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In diplomatic lexicon, September 2011 is shorthand for a Palestinian statehood bid at the UN, ensuing Israeli and U.S. retaliation and, in fine, a train-wreck. There are legitimate fears about the fallout, but obsession with what will happen at the UN and the disproportionate energy invested in aborting it are getting in the way of clear thinking. This could well produce a cure more lethal than the ailment. Were Palestinian President Abbas to back down, he could decisively discredit his leadership, embolden his foes and trigger unrest among his people; quickly resuming peace talks as an alternative could lead to a breakdown with consequences far graver than anything that effort might induce. The focus should be on shaping a UN outcome that produces tangible gain for the Palestinians in their quest for statehood while providing some reassurance to Israelis, minimises risks of violence or the Palestinian Authority's collapse and enshrines core principles for a two-state solution. With little time remaining, the burden has shifted to the EU to craft this compromise. It has long sought that role. Now it must live up to it.
- Topic:
- Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Arabia
20. Bosnia: Europe's Time to Act
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After years of hesitancy, European Union (EU) member states should make 2011 the year when the lead international role in Bosnia and Herzegovina shifts from the Office of the High Representative (OHR) to a reinforced EU delegation. Bosnia has outgrown the OHR established in 1995 after the Dayton Peace Agreement and the creation of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC). Today the country needs EU technical assistance and political guidance to become a credible candidate for EU membership, not an international overseer to legislate for it or maintain security. Member states should rapidly install a comprehensive plan to reinforce the EU presence, including an embassy led by a strong ambassador, strengthen the membership perspective and build local credibility. OHR should withdraw from domestic politics and, unless a threat to peace emerges, focus on reviewing past decisions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Balkans
21. The Philippines: Back to the Table, Warily, in Mindanao
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Peace talks between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) are back on track, with one round of talks in Kuala Lumpur in February 2011 and another scheduled for late April. The obstacles to achieving a final peace are huge, but the administration of President Benigno S. “Noynoy” Aquino III has at least brought some fresh air to the process. A new government peace panel seems determined to find a way out of a negotiator's nightmare: multiple parties engaged in parallel and sometimes contradictory talks; powerful potential spoilers; and ethnic divisions, feuding clans and divergent political interests among the Bangsamoro – the Muslims of Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago – that make unity within the MILF's own constituency elusive.
- Topic:
- Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Philippines, and Kuala Lumpur
22. Libye/Tchad : au-delà d'une politique d'influence
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Depuis l'arrivée au pouvoir de Mouammar Kadhafi en 1969, la Libye est devenue le voisin le plus important du Tchad. Pendant la présidence d'Hissène Habré, la relation devint hostile et fut marquée par différentes interventions militaires. Depuis l'entrée en fonction d'Idriss Déby, la Libye a abandonné toute revendication territoriale sur le pays et s'est transformée en parrain régional, jouant un rôle actif dans les négociations de paix entre le régime et ses rebellions. Elle a en effet les moyens financiers et l'autorité pour amener les protagonistes à négocier, mais son suivi de la mise en oeuvre des accords passés laisse souvent à désirer. Sa diplomatie a connu de brefs succès en facilitant la cooptation des rebelles par N'Djamena mais a suscité peu de progrès à long-terme pour une stabilisation du Tchad. Le contraste entre les pressions exercées pour obtenir des signatures sur les accords de paix qu'elle chaperonne et son manque d'intérêt pour leur application suggère que les médiations de Kadhafi sont moins fondées sur un désir de stabiliser le Tchad, que sur une volonté de préserver son influence régionale.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
23. Sudan: Regional Perspectives on the Prospect of Southern Independence
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- South Sudan is just eight months away from a self-determination referendum that will likely result in its secession from the North. Much remains to be done to implement the outstanding elements of Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), and time is running out. The agreement's underlying aim of “making unity attractive” has failed, and most Southerners thus appear determined to choose independence. Neighbouring states are increasingly focused on the fragile circumstances in Sudan and the likelihood of a newly independent state in the region. Support from Sudan's neighbours for the referendum process and respect for its result will be crucial to ensuring peace and stability in the country and the region.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
24. Kosovo and Serbia after the ICJ Opinion
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In the wake of the July 2010 International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion on the legality of Kosovo's declaration of independence, Kosovo and Serbia have an opportunity to resolve differences, establish bilateral relations and unblock their paths to greater European Union (EU) integration. The obstacles are formidable, including mutual suspicion, incompatible agendas and uncertainties about the true goals of each. Failure to negotiate in the next months would probably freeze the conflict for several years, as the parties entered electoral cycles, during which the dispute would likely be used to mobilise nationalist opinion and deflect criticism of domestic corruption and government failures. Enough has changed recently, especially the development of more realistic if not yet fully public attitudes in Belgrade and Pristina, to suggest a win-win solution is possible. Without preconditions and facilitated in particular by the EU, Kosovo and Serbia should promptly open talks with the aim of reaching as comprehensive a compromise settlement as possible.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, and Southern Serbia
25. Tchad: au delà de l'apaisement
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- En cette veille d'élections, le Tchad a enfin une opportu- nité de sortir de la crise politico-militaire dans laquelle il s'est retrouvé depuis plus de cinq ans. L'apaisement per- ceptible des tensions avec le Soudan depuis le début de l'année 2010 ainsi qu'une relative accalmie dans les af- frontements entre l'armée gouvernementale et les groupes rebelles augurent d'un possible retour progressif à la normale. Cependant, le contrôle rigide de l'espace poli- tique national par le président Déby et les problèmes ré- currents du processus électoral pourraient replonger le pays dans de nouveaux troubl es. Le gouvernement tcha- dien doit profiter de l'accalmie actuelle pour poursuivre la normalisation avec le Soudan, garantir la sécurité des populations ainsi que des opé rateurs humanitaires dans l'Est comme stipulé par la résolution du Conseil de Sécu- rité 1923 (2010), réaliser les réformes intérieures qu'il s'est engagé à mener et pr oposer aux opposants armés et leurs combattants une paix honorable et durable.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Treaties and Agreements, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa
26. Indonesia: The Deepening Impasse in Papua
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The two sentiments that define the political impasse in Papua are frustration on the part of many Papuans that “special autonomy” has meant so little, and exasperation on the part of many Indonesian government officials that Papuans are not satisfied with what they have been given. The gulf between the two might be reduced by dialogue, but any prospect of serious talks is hampered by an un-willingness of Jakarta to treat the problem as essentially a political, rather than an economic one. To move forward, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono needs personally to take the lead in recognising that autonomy means more than increased budgetary allocations or accelerated economic development. He needs to explore directly with credible Papuan leaders how political autonomy can be expanded; affirmative action policies strengthened in all sectors; and Papuan fears about in-migration addressed. Unless these three issues are tackled head on in face-to-face meetings, the impasse is unlikely to be broken and increased radicalisation is likely.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Asia
27. Congo : Pas de stabilité au Kivu malgré le rapprochement avec le Rwanda
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Le plan de résolution du conf lit au Kivu consistant à pri-vilégier la solution militaire s'avère être un échec. Deux années après le début du rapprochement entre le président Congolais Joseph Kabila et son homologue rwandais Paul Kagame, les soldats gouvernementaux sont encore aux prises avec des miliciens pour le contrôle des terres et des zones minières. Bien qu'aucune des deux parties n'ait réellement les capacités de pr endre un ascendant définitif, elles ont toutes deux les ressources suffisantes pour prolonger la lutte. Dans le même temps, les civils subissent des violences extrêmes et la situation humanitaire se dété-riore. Les tensions ethniques se sont aggravées à l'annonce des plans de rapatriement de dizaines de milliers de réfu-giés congolais qui ont fui au Rwanda durant les années 1990. Le Conseil de Sécurité des Nations Unies a observé la situation se dégrader à l'est du Congo sans s'opposer aux décisions de Kagame et Kabila.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Diplomacy, Economics, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo
28. Negotiating Sudan's North-South Future
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan's fragile Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is entering its final phase, and a critical vote on Southern self-determination looms, but foundations for a constructive post-referendum relationship are yet to be laid. In addition to a handful of outstanding CPA items, future arrangements on citizenship and nationality, natural resource management (oil and water), currency, assets and liabilities, security and international treaties must be negotiated, regardless of the referendum's outcome. Many in Sudan and abroad are focused on ensuring the referendum exercise takes place on 9 January as planned. But simultaneously pursuing agreement on the broader postreferendum agenda is not only critical for a peaceful transition and long-term regional stability, but may also serve the more immediate objective of clearing the path for a mutually accepted referendum.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
29. Bosnia's Incomplete Transition: Between Dayton and Europe
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- While Bosnia and Herzegovina's time as an international protectorate is ending, which is in itself most welcome, now is the wrong time to rush the transition. The state put together by the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement after a long war will never be secure and able to take its place in the European Union (EU) until it is responsible for the consequences of its own decisions. But tensions are currently high and stability is deteriorating, as Bosniaks and Serbs play a zero-sum game to upset the Dayton settlement. Progress toward EU membership is stalled, and requirements set in 2008 for ending the protectorate have not been not met.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Religion, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans
30. Turkey and Armenia: Opening Minds, Opening Borders
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Turkey and Armenia are close to settling a dispute that has long roiled Caucasus politics, isolated Armenia and cast a shadow over Turkey's European Union (EU) ambition. For a decade and a half, relations have been poisoned by disagreement about issues including how to address a common past and compensate for crimes, territorial disputes, distrust bred in Soviet times and Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani land. But recently, progressively intense official engagement, civil society interaction and public opinion change have transformed the relationship, bringing both sides to the brink of an historic agreement to open borders, establish diplomatic ties and begin joint work on reconciliation. They should seize this opportunity to normalise. The politicised debate whether to recognise as genocide the destruction of much of the Ottoman Armenian population and the stalemated Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh should not halt momentum. The U.S., EU, Russia and others should maintain support for reconciliation and avoid harming it with statements about history at a critical and promising time.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Genocide, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Turkey, Caucasus, Asia, Soviet Union, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
31. Nagorno-Karabakh: Getting to a Breakthrough
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A preliminary breakthrough in the two-decades-old Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – a framework agreement on basic principles – may be within reach. Armenia and Azerbaijan are in substantial accord on principles first outlined by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group in 2005. A basic principles agreement, while only a foundation to build on, is crucial to maintain momentum for a peace deal. Important differences remain on specifics of a subsequent final deal. Movement toward Armenia-Turkey rapprochement after a century of hostility has brought opportunity also for ending the Nagorno-Karabakh stalemate. Sustainable regional peace requires compromises on all the quarrels, but there is backlash danger, especially in Armenia, where public discontent could derail the Nagorno-Karabakh framework agreement. Presidents Sarkisian (Armenia) and Aliyev (Azerbaijan) need to do more to prepare their publics. The U.S., Russia and France, Minsk Group co-chairs, have stepped up collective efforts, but more is needed to emphasise dangers in clinging to an untenable status quo.
- Topic:
- Peace Studies and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Asia
32. Sudan: Preventing Implosion
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan is sliding towards violent breakup. The main mechanisms to end conflicts between the central government and the peripheries – the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), the Darfur Peace Agreement and the East Sudan Peace Agreement – all suffer from lack of implementation, largely due to the intransigence of the National Congress Party (NCP). Less than thirteen months remain to ensure that national elections and the South Sudan self-determination referendum lead to democratic transformation and resolution of all the country's conflicts. Unless the international community, notably the U.S., the UN, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council and the Horn of Africa Inter-Government Authority on Development (IGAD), cooperate to support both CPA implementation and vital additional negotiations, return to North-South war and escalation of conflict in Darfur are likely.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, Middle East, and South Sudan
33. Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement: Beyond the Crisis
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 11 October 2007, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) announced it was suspending participation in the Government of National Unity because the National Congress Party (NCP) was not implementing key aspects of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended the generation-long, primarily North-South conflict. After months of highlevel meetings, military posturing and increasingly aggressive rhetoric, the parties agreed on a series of measures and drew back from the brink. The SPLM rejoined the government, which includes a reorganised cabinet, on 27 December. The immediate crisis has been defused, but underlying difficulties remain, and the risk of significant new fighting is growing in the Abyei area. Both parties must re-commit to full CPA implementation if peace is to hold, and the international community must re-engage robustly in support of the still shaky peace deal and recognise that CPA implementation would create the best environment for peace in Darfur and beyond.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and Darfur
34. CÔTE D'IVOIRE :FAUT-IL CROIRE À L'ACCORD DE OUAGADOUGOU ?
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- L'accord de paix conclu le 4 mars 2007 à Ouagadougou entre Laurent Gbagbo et Guillaume Soro constitue un tournant majeur dans la résolution du conflit armé en Côte d'Ivoire, mais ne représente qu'un premier pas dans la bonne direction. Tous les Ivoiriens qui souhaitent une paix durable doivent maintenant se mobiliser pour exiger du gouvernement de transition la délivrance effective des titres d'identité prévus, la récupération des armes encore détenues par les milices, une véritable réforme du secteur de la sécurité et un processus électoral crédible. La communauté internationale a évité à la Côte d'Ivoire de sombrer dans le chaos au cours de ces quatre dernières années et doit maintenir intact son engagement militaire, politique et financier. L'évolution du processus de paix ne doit pas être dictée par les seules ambitions des deux signataires de l'accord de Ouagadougou mais aussi par l'objectif de la construction d'une paix durable en Côte d'Ivoire qui est cruciale pour la stabilité de toute l'Afrique de l'Ouest.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Civil War, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa
35. Northern Uganda Peace Process: The Need to Maintain Momentum
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Peace talks between the Ugandan government and the insurgent Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) are moving in the right direction, but the core issues – justice, security and livelihoods – are still to be resolved and require difficult decisions, including on the fate of LRA leaders whom the International Criminal Court (ICC) has indicted. The 2 May 2007 agreement on comprehensive solutions to the conflict and the 29 June agreement on reconciliation and accountability revived momentum for the year-old talks in the southern Sudan town of Juba. Rebel elements in southern Sudan moved to the LRA's jungle hideout near Garamba National Park in Congo in May and June, thus expanding the peace process' major achievement: more security for millions of civilians in northern Uganda and southern Sudan. Yet both recent agreements are incomplete and devoid of specifics. Both parties' commitment to a deal remains questionable. The international community needs to help the mediators by creating more leverage to push the peace process forward, including by presenting the LRA with a credible back-up military threat.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, North Uganda, South Sudan, and Juba
36. Afghanistan's Endangered Compact
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- While the growing insurgency is attracting increasing attention, long-term efforts to build the solid governmental institutions a stable Afghanistan requires are faltering. Following conclusion of the Bonn process, which created the country's elected bodies, the Afghan government and the international community committed at the London Conference (31 January-1 February 2006) to the Afghanistan Compact, which identified “three critical and interdependent areas or pillars of activity” over five years: security; governance, rule of law and human rights; and social and economic development. The government signed on to realizing a “shared vision of the future” for a “stable and prosperous Afghanistan”, while over 60 nations and international institutions promised to provide the necessary resources and support. A year on, even those most closely associated with the process admit that the Compact has yet to have much impact. Afghans and internationals alike still need to demonstrate the political will to undertake deep-rooted institutional changes if the goals of this shared vision are to be met.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Asia, and London
37. Israel/Hizbollah/Lebanon: Avoiding Renewed Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- UN Security Council Resolution 1701 halted the month- long fighting between Israel and Hizbollah but did little to resolve the underlying conflict and, if poorly handled, could help reignite it. The resolution has held remarkably well, with only limited violations. However, the temptation by either party to overreach could trigger renewed fighting. The greatest threats would be attempts by Israel or UN forces (UNIFIL) to use 1701 as a blunt means of disarming Hizbollah in the south or by Hizbollah to test UNIFIL's resolve. 1701 should be seen as a transitory instrument that can stabilise the border by containing both sides' military impulses until bolder action is taken to address both domestic Lebanese matters (reforming and democratising the political and electoral systems; building a strong sovereign state and army; resolving the question of Hizbollah's armaments) and, especially, regional issues (in particular re-launching the Syrian track and engaging Iran). In short the international community must be modest in implementing 1701 for as long as it is not prepared to be ambitious in its regional diplomatic efforts.
- Topic:
- Security, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria
38. Global Leaders Call for Action on Arab-Israeli Settlement
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With the Middle East immersed in its worst crisis for years, we call for urgent international action towards a comprehensive settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Everyone has lost in this conflict except the extremists throughout the world who prosper on the rage that it continues to provoke. Every passing day undermines prospects for a peaceful, enduring solution. As long as the conflict lasts, it will generate instability and violence in the region and beyond.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
39. Aceh: Now for the Hard Part
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Just past the half-year mark of the agreement to end the conflict in Aceh, several long-anticipated problems are surfacing. None by itself is grave enough to derail the 15 August 2005 accord between the Indonesian government and the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM); the peace process remain s very much on track. But their convergence means that more than ever, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla will have to exert leadership, and international donors will have to constantly assess the political impact of their assistance to prevent any backsliding.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Asia
40. North Korea's Nuclear Test: The Fallout
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The North Korean nuclear standoff entered an even more troubling phase with Pyongyang's test of a nuclear device on 9 October 2006. Condemnation was nearly universal, and the UN Security Council moved quickly to pass Resolution 1718 unanimously less than a week later. The test stirred China to take an unusually strong line against its ally, joining UN sanctions and dispatching a senior envoy to Pyongyang. On 31 October, after talks in Beijing with the U.S. and China, Pyongyang agreed to return to the six-party talks. The resumption of a diplomatic process is welcome but will likely face the same pitfalls as earlier rounds in which progress was undermined by a lack of clear understandings between North Korea and the U.S. While the six-party talks are a useful forum, resolving the nuclear issue will also require committed bilateral negotiations that address in detail North Korea's security concerns and U.S. demands for complete disarmament and intrusive verification. China's strong response may prove to be a major new factor pressing North Korea to offer more concessions in the talks, but only if the U.S. is prepared to set the table with a far more specific and appetizing menu than it has thus far.
- Topic:
- Security, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Beijing, North Korea, and Pyongyang
41. Rebuilding Liberia: Prospects and Perils
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Liberia is a collapsed state that has become in effect a UN protectorate. Whether its political and economic reconstruction can begin depends on how quickly security spreads throughout the country. Squabbles over jobs by leaders of the armed factions have caused near-paralysis in the transitional government. Faction leaders tried to block disarmament until they received more jobs, boding ill for the peace process. The display of cynicism and greed by fighters and political leaders alike has undermined international confidence ahead of the donors' conference that meets in New York, 5-6 February 2004.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- New York and Liberia
42. Sudan: Towards an Incomplete Peace
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With the signing on 25 September 2003 of a framework agreement on security arrangements, the Sudanese government and the insurgent Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLA) are closer to peace than at any time in the past twenty years. However, considerable hurdles remain before any final deal is signed, and a separate, intensifying war in the west already threatens to undermine it. As the parties press forward with the last phases of negotiation, the international community's engagement should intensify in support of the final deal, in preparation for helping with implementation if successful, and in ensuring coordination between the main peace process and the conflict in the west.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Ethnic Conflict, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Sudan, and North Africa
43. CÔTE D'IVOIRE: "The War Is Not Yet Over"
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- "The war is not yet over", an ICG mission to Côte d'Ivoire repeatedly heard in November 2003. There are ominous signs that the Côte d'Ivoire peace process initiated in January 2003 has broken down. If the country goes back to war, it could well take all West Africa with it, endangering even recent progress in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The UN Security Council needs to take a leading role in the peace process, initially by upgrading its current presence to a full peacekeeping mission. This could include subsuming some 1,400 West African troops under the umbrella of an expanded operation. The UN should also step up cooperation between its ongoing peace operation in Liberia and its Ivorian peace mission, MINUCI.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Nations, Liberia, and Sierra Leone
44. Tribunal Penal International Pour Le Rwanda: Pragmatisme De Rigueur
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Il y a un an, le Tribunal pénal international pour le Rwanda (TPIR) traversait une période de grande tension. En même temps que s'imposaient à lui des échéances claires quant à la fin de son mandat, le TPIR faisait face à trois défis essentiels: fixer un programme réaliste des poursuites lui permettant d'achever ses travaux d'ici 2008, date fixée pour l'achèvement des procès en première instance, établir un calendrier judiciaire reflétant ses priorités et la nécessité d'améliorer sa productivité, résister à la pression d'un gouvernement rwandais déterminé à empêcher toute poursuite contre des membres de son armée. Sur ces trois fronts, l'année qui vient de s'écouler aura marqué l'entrée du TPIR dans une phase de pragmatisme.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Law, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
45. Ethiopia and Eritrea: War or Peace?
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The next few weeks will go far to determining whether Ethiopia and Eritrea resume a path toward war - which took some 100,000 lives between 1998 and 2000 - or solidify their peace agreement. Ethiopia must decide whether to allow demarcation of the border to begin in October 2003 even though the international Boundary Commission set up under the Algiers agreement that ended the fighting has ruled that the town of Badme - the original flashpoint of the war - is on the Eritrean side. The outcome will have profound implications for both countries and the entire Horn of Africa, as well as for international law and the sanctity of binding peace agreements and arbitration processes. The international community, particularly the U.S., the African Union (AU), and the European Union (EU), all of which played major roles in brokering the Algiers agreement, need to engage urgently to help Ethiopia move the demarcation forward and to assist both parties to devise a package of measures that can reduce the humanitarian costs of border adjustments and otherwise make implementation of the demarcation more politically palatable.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, North Africa, and Ethiopia
46. Sudan Endgame
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Sudan peace process is in its endgame. One year ago, the parties signed the Machakos Protocol, a provisional "grand bargain" that effectively traded a southern self-determination referendum for Sharia in the North. It is time for a second "grand bargain" on the remaining issues such as the status of the national capital, the presidency and the security arrangements to close the deal. This requires major tradeoffs - or new solutions - to meet the bottom lines of the parties and protect the original Protocol as well as incentives for implementation. Commitments on the U.S.-Sudan bilateral relationship and assurances that the U.S. will remain closely involved in the post-agreement process are the glue without which a deal is unlikely to stick. With them, peace has a chance.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Sudan and North Africa
47. Decision Time in Zimbabwe
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Change is in the air in Zimbabwe. Its citizens no longer talk about whether it will come, but rather when. All acknowledge, however, that the road will be dangerous, possibly violent. South Africa is the single country with ability to help its neighbour through the roughest patches if it is willing to engage with sufficient determination to persuade the government of President Robert Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party to sit down with their challenger, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and then facilitate and mediate negotiations for a transitional government and new elections. A range of other international players need to play supporting roles, including the EU, the Southern Africa Development Commission (SADC), the African Union (AU), and the Commonwealth, but most directly and prominently the U.S. The visit of President Bush to South Africa on 8 July is a unique opportunity to chart action that could lead to a negotiated solution and an end to the crisis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, and Zimbabwe
48. Somaliland: Democratisation and Its Discontents
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Recent developments have made the choice faced by the international community considerably clearer: develop pragmatic responses to Somaliland's demand for self-determination or continue to insist upon the increasingly abstract notion of the unity and territorial integrity of the Somali Republic - a course of action almost certain to open a new chapter in the Somali civil war.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Democratization, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Somalia
49. Sudan's Other Wars
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The two-party framework in which Sudan's peace talks are being held is not adequately addressing all the country's current armed conflicts: especially the long-running rebellions in the “Three Areas” (Abyei, the Nuba Mountains and Southern Blue Nile ) in the North, and the more recent outbreak of armed conflict in Darfur in western Sudan. The discontents in these regions have thus far largely been viewed as of secondary importance to those of the South, but they must be taken into account if a sustainable national peace agreement is to be reached. There is a real potential for those who feel ignored by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) peace process to undermine any deal that is between only the Khartoum government and the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA). It is therefore incumbent upon the IGAD mediation team and the international observer countries to ensure that the grievances driving conflict in these areas are fully dealt with in any comprehensive peace deal.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Sudan and North Africa
50. Angola's Choice: Reform or Regress
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- One year after more than four decades of internationally fuelled civil conflict came to an end, Angola is faced with a stark choice. If the government undertakes and sustains meaningful political and economic reforms, peace and prosperity would be assured. If it delays and obfuscates on fundamental issues of transparency, diversification and pluralism, the country will likely be condemned to further decades of poor governance and localised violence.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Political Economy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa