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21. The Philippines: Back to the Table, Warily, in Mindanao

Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Peace talks between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) are back on track, with one round of talks in Kuala Lumpur in February 2011 and another scheduled for late April. The obstacles to achieving a final peace are huge, but the administration of President Benigno S. “Noynoy” Aquino III has at least brought some fresh air to the process. A new government peace panel seems determined to find a way out of a negotiator's nightmare: multiple parties engaged in parallel and sometimes contradictory talks; powerful potential spoilers; and ethnic divisions, feuding clans and divergent political interests among the Bangsamoro – the Muslims of Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago – that make unity within the MILF's own constituency elusive.
Topic:
Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Israel, Philippines, and Kuala Lumpur

22. Libye/Tchad : au-delà d'une politique d'influence

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Depuis l'arrivée au pouvoir de Mouammar Kadhafi en 1969, la Libye est devenue le voisin le plus important du Tchad. Pendant la présidence d'Hissène Habré, la relation devint hostile et fut marquée par différentes interventions militaires. Depuis l'entrée en fonction d'Idriss Déby, la Libye a abandonné toute revendication territoriale sur le pays et s'est transformée en parrain régional, jouant un rôle actif dans les négociations de paix entre le régime et ses rebellions. Elle a en effet les moyens financiers et l'autorité pour amener les protagonistes à négocier, mais son suivi de la mise en oeuvre des accords passés laisse souvent à désirer. Sa diplomatie a connu de brefs succès en facilitant la cooptation des rebelles par N'Djamena mais a suscité peu de progrès à long-terme pour une stabilisation du Tchad. Le contraste entre les pressions exercées pour obtenir des signatures sur les accords de paix qu'elle chaperonne et son manque d'intérêt pour leur application suggère que les médiations de Kadhafi sont moins fondées sur un désir de stabiliser le Tchad, que sur une volonté de préserver son influence régionale.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

23. Sudan: Regional Perspectives on the Prospect of Southern Independence

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
South Sudan is just eight months away from a self-determination referendum that will likely result in its secession from the North. Much remains to be done to implement the outstanding elements of Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), and time is running out. The agreement's underlying aim of “making unity attractive” has failed, and most Southerners thus appear determined to choose independence. Neighbouring states are increasingly focused on the fragile circumstances in Sudan and the likelihood of a newly independent state in the region. Support from Sudan's neighbours for the referendum process and respect for its result will be crucial to ensuring peace and stability in the country and the region.
Topic:
Political Violence, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

24. Kosovo and Serbia after the ICJ Opinion

Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the wake of the July 2010 International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion on the legality of Kosovo's declaration of independence, Kosovo and Serbia have an opportunity to resolve differences, establish bilateral relations and unblock their paths to greater European Union (EU) integration. The obstacles are formidable, including mutual suspicion, incompatible agendas and uncertainties about the true goals of each. Failure to negotiate in the next months would probably freeze the conflict for several years, as the parties entered electoral cycles, during which the dispute would likely be used to mobilise nationalist opinion and deflect criticism of domestic corruption and government failures. Enough has changed recently, especially the development of more realistic if not yet fully public attitudes in Belgrade and Pristina, to suggest a win-win solution is possible. Without preconditions and facilitated in particular by the EU, Kosovo and Serbia should promptly open talks with the aim of reaching as comprehensive a compromise settlement as possible.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, and Southern Serbia

25. Tchad: au delà de l'apaisement

Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En cette veille d'élections, le Tchad a enfin une opportu- nité de sortir de la crise politico-militaire dans laquelle il s'est retrouvé depuis plus de cinq ans. L'apaisement per- ceptible des tensions avec le Soudan depuis le début de l'année 2010 ainsi qu'une relative accalmie dans les af- frontements entre l'armée gouvernementale et les groupes rebelles augurent d'un possible retour progressif à la normale. Cependant, le contrôle rigide de l'espace poli- tique national par le président Déby et les problèmes ré- currents du processus électoral pourraient replonger le pays dans de nouveaux troubl es. Le gouvernement tcha- dien doit profiter de l'accalmie actuelle pour poursuivre la normalisation avec le Soudan, garantir la sécurité des populations ainsi que des opé rateurs humanitaires dans l'Est comme stipulé par la résolution du Conseil de Sécu- rité 1923 (2010), réaliser les réformes intérieures qu'il s'est engagé à mener et pr oposer aux opposants armés et leurs combattants une paix honorable et durable.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Treaties and Agreements, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa

26. Indonesia: The Deepening Impasse in Papua

Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The two sentiments that define the political impasse in Papua are frustration on the part of many Papuans that “special autonomy” has meant so little, and exasperation on the part of many Indonesian government officials that Papuans are not satisfied with what they have been given. The gulf between the two might be reduced by dialogue, but any prospect of serious talks is hampered by an un-willingness of Jakarta to treat the problem as essentially a political, rather than an economic one. To move forward, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono needs personally to take the lead in recognising that autonomy means more than increased budgetary allocations or accelerated economic development. He needs to explore directly with credible Papuan leaders how political autonomy can be expanded; affirmative action policies strengthened in all sectors; and Papuan fears about in-migration addressed. Unless these three issues are tackled head on in face-to-face meetings, the impasse is unlikely to be broken and increased radicalisation is likely.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

27. Congo : Pas de stabilité au Kivu malgré le rapprochement avec le Rwanda

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le plan de résolution du conf lit au Kivu consistant à pri-vilégier la solution militaire s'avère être un échec. Deux années après le début du rapprochement entre le président Congolais Joseph Kabila et son homologue rwandais Paul Kagame, les soldats gouvernementaux sont encore aux prises avec des miliciens pour le contrôle des terres et des zones minières. Bien qu'aucune des deux parties n'ait réellement les capacités de pr endre un ascendant définitif, elles ont toutes deux les ressources suffisantes pour prolonger la lutte. Dans le même temps, les civils subissent des violences extrêmes et la situation humanitaire se dété-riore. Les tensions ethniques se sont aggravées à l'annonce des plans de rapatriement de dizaines de milliers de réfu-giés congolais qui ont fui au Rwanda durant les années 1990. Le Conseil de Sécurité des Nations Unies a observé la situation se dégrader à l'est du Congo sans s'opposer aux décisions de Kagame et Kabila.
Topic:
Civil War, Diplomacy, Economics, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

28. Negotiating Sudan's North-South Future

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan's fragile Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is entering its final phase, and a critical vote on Southern self-determination looms, but foundations for a constructive post-referendum relationship are yet to be laid. In addition to a handful of outstanding CPA items, future arrangements on citizenship and nationality, natural resource management (oil and water), currency, assets and liabilities, security and international treaties must be negotiated, regardless of the referendum's outcome. Many in Sudan and abroad are focused on ensuring the referendum exercise takes place on 9 January as planned. But simultaneously pursuing agreement on the broader postreferendum agenda is not only critical for a peaceful transition and long-term regional stability, but may also serve the more immediate objective of clearing the path for a mutually accepted referendum.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

29. Nagorno-Karabakh: Getting to a Breakthrough

Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A preliminary breakthrough in the two-decades-old Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – a framework agreement on basic principles – may be within reach. Armenia and Azerbaijan are in substantial accord on principles first outlined by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group in 2005. A basic principles agreement, while only a foundation to build on, is crucial to maintain momentum for a peace deal. Important differences remain on specifics of a subsequent final deal. Movement toward Armenia-Turkey rapprochement after a century of hostility has brought opportunity also for ending the Nagorno-Karabakh stalemate. Sustainable regional peace requires compromises on all the quarrels, but there is backlash danger, especially in Armenia, where public discontent could derail the Nagorno-Karabakh framework agreement. Presidents Sarkisian (Armenia) and Aliyev (Azerbaijan) need to do more to prepare their publics. The U.S., Russia and France, Minsk Group co-chairs, have stepped up collective efforts, but more is needed to emphasise dangers in clinging to an untenable status quo.
Topic:
Peace Studies and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Asia

30. Sudan: Preventing Implosion

Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan is sliding towards violent breakup. The main mechanisms to end conflicts between the central government and the peripheries – the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), the Darfur Peace Agreement and the East Sudan Peace Agreement – all suffer from lack of implementation, largely due to the intransigence of the National Congress Party (NCP). Less than thirteen months remain to ensure that national elections and the South Sudan self-determination referendum lead to democratic transformation and resolution of all the country's conflicts. Unless the international community, notably the U.S., the UN, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council and the Horn of Africa Inter-Government Authority on Development (IGAD), cooperate to support both CPA implementation and vital additional negotiations, return to North-South war and escalation of conflict in Darfur are likely.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Middle East, and South Sudan

31. Bosnia's Incomplete Transition: Between Dayton and Europe

Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While Bosnia and Herzegovina's time as an international protectorate is ending, which is in itself most welcome, now is the wrong time to rush the transition. The state put together by the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement after a long war will never be secure and able to take its place in the European Union (EU) until it is responsible for the consequences of its own decisions. But tensions are currently high and stability is deteriorating, as Bosniaks and Serbs play a zero-sum game to upset the Dayton settlement. Progress toward EU membership is stalled, and requirements set in 2008 for ending the protectorate have not been not met.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Religion, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

32. Turkey and Armenia: Opening Minds, Opening Borders

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Turkey and Armenia are close to settling a dispute that has long roiled Caucasus politics, isolated Armenia and cast a shadow over Turkey's European Union (EU) ambition. For a decade and a half, relations have been poisoned by disagreement about issues including how to address a common past and compensate for crimes, territorial disputes, distrust bred in Soviet times and Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani land. But recently, progressively intense official engagement, civil society interaction and public opinion change have transformed the relationship, bringing both sides to the brink of an historic agreement to open borders, establish diplomatic ties and begin joint work on reconciliation. They should seize this opportunity to normalise. The politicised debate whether to recognise as genocide the destruction of much of the Ottoman Armenian population and the stalemated Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh should not halt momentum. The U.S., EU, Russia and others should maintain support for reconciliation and avoid harming it with statements about history at a critical and promising time.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Genocide, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Turkey, Caucasus, Asia, Soviet Union, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

33. Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement: Beyond the Crisis

Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 11 October 2007, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) announced it was suspending participation in the Government of National Unity because the National Congress Party (NCP) was not implementing key aspects of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended the generation-long, primarily North-South conflict. After months of highlevel meetings, military posturing and increasingly aggressive rhetoric, the parties agreed on a series of measures and drew back from the brink. The SPLM rejoined the government, which includes a reorganised cabinet, on 27 December. The immediate crisis has been defused, but underlying difficulties remain, and the risk of significant new fighting is growing in the Abyei area. Both parties must re-commit to full CPA implementation if peace is to hold, and the international community must re-engage robustly in support of the still shaky peace deal and recognise that CPA implementation would create the best environment for peace in Darfur and beyond.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Darfur

34. CÔTE D'IVOIRE :FAUT-IL CROIRE À L'ACCORD DE OUAGADOUGOU ?

Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
L'accord de paix conclu le 4 mars 2007 à Ouagadougou entre Laurent Gbagbo et Guillaume Soro constitue un tournant majeur dans la résolution du conflit armé en Côte d'Ivoire, mais ne représente qu'un premier pas dans la bonne direction. Tous les Ivoiriens qui souhaitent une paix durable doivent maintenant se mobiliser pour exiger du gouvernement de transition la délivrance effective des titres d'identité prévus, la récupération des armes encore détenues par les milices, une véritable réforme du secteur de la sécurité et un processus électoral crédible. La communauté internationale a évité à la Côte d'Ivoire de sombrer dans le chaos au cours de ces quatre dernières années et doit maintenir intact son engagement militaire, politique et financier. L'évolution du processus de paix ne doit pas être dictée par les seules ambitions des deux signataires de l'accord de Ouagadougou mais aussi par l'objectif de la construction d'une paix durable en Côte d'Ivoire qui est cruciale pour la stabilité de toute l'Afrique de l'Ouest.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Civil War, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa

35. Northern Uganda Peace Process: The Need to Maintain Momentum

Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Peace talks between the Ugandan government and the insurgent Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) are moving in the right direction, but the core issues – justice, security and livelihoods – are still to be resolved and require difficult decisions, including on the fate of LRA leaders whom the International Criminal Court (ICC) has indicted. The 2 May 2007 agreement on comprehensive solutions to the conflict and the 29 June agreement on reconciliation and accountability revived momentum for the year-old talks in the southern Sudan town of Juba. Rebel elements in southern Sudan moved to the LRA's jungle hideout near Garamba National Park in Congo in May and June, thus expanding the peace process' major achievement: more security for millions of civilians in northern Uganda and southern Sudan. Yet both recent agreements are incomplete and devoid of specifics. Both parties' commitment to a deal remains questionable. The international community needs to help the mediators by creating more leverage to push the peace process forward, including by presenting the LRA with a credible back-up military threat.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, North Uganda, South Sudan, and Juba

36. Afghanistan's Endangered Compact

Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While the growing insurgency is attracting increasing attention, long-term efforts to build the solid governmental institutions a stable Afghanistan requires are faltering. Following conclusion of the Bonn process, which created the country's elected bodies, the Afghan government and the international community committed at the London Conference (31 January-1 February 2006) to the Afghanistan Compact, which identified “three critical and interdependent areas or pillars of activity” over five years: security; governance, rule of law and human rights; and social and economic development. The government signed on to realizing a “shared vision of the future” for a “stable and prosperous Afghanistan”, while over 60 nations and international institutions promised to provide the necessary resources and support. A year on, even those most closely associated with the process admit that the Compact has yet to have much impact. Afghans and internationals alike still need to demonstrate the political will to undertake deep-rooted institutional changes if the goals of this shared vision are to be met.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Asia, and London

37. Israel/Hizbollah/Lebanon: Avoiding Renewed Conflict

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
UN Security Council Resolution 1701 halted the month- long fighting between Israel and Hizbollah but did little to resolve the underlying conflict and, if poorly handled, could help reignite it. The resolution has held remarkably well, with only limited violations. However, the temptation by either party to overreach could trigger renewed fighting. The greatest threats would be attempts by Israel or UN forces (UNIFIL) to use 1701 as a blunt means of disarming Hizbollah in the south or by Hizbollah to test UNIFIL's resolve. 1701 should be seen as a transitory instrument that can stabilise the border by containing both sides' military impulses until bolder action is taken to address both domestic Lebanese matters (reforming and democratising the political and electoral systems; building a strong sovereign state and army; resolving the question of Hizbollah's armaments) and, especially, regional issues (in particular re-launching the Syrian track and engaging Iran). In short the international community must be modest in implementing 1701 for as long as it is not prepared to be ambitious in its regional diplomatic efforts.
Topic:
Security, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria

38. Global Leaders Call for Action on Arab-Israeli Settlement

Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With the Middle East immersed in its worst crisis for years, we call for urgent international action towards a comprehensive settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Everyone has lost in this conflict except the extremists throughout the world who prosper on the rage that it continues to provoke. Every passing day undermines prospects for a peaceful, enduring solution. As long as the conflict lasts, it will generate instability and violence in the region and beyond.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

39. Aceh: Now for the Hard Part

Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Just past the half-year mark of the agreement to end the conflict in Aceh, several long-anticipated problems are surfacing. None by itself is grave enough to derail the 15 August 2005 accord between the Indonesian government and the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM); the peace process remain s very much on track. But their convergence means that more than ever, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla will have to exert leadership, and international donors will have to constantly assess the political impact of their assistance to prevent any backsliding.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

40. North Korea's Nuclear Test: The Fallout

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The North Korean nuclear standoff entered an even more troubling phase with Pyongyang's test of a nuclear device on 9 October 2006. Condemnation was nearly universal, and the UN Security Council moved quickly to pass Resolution 1718 unanimously less than a week later. The test stirred China to take an unusually strong line against its ally, joining UN sanctions and dispatching a senior envoy to Pyongyang. On 31 October, after talks in Beijing with the U.S. and China, Pyongyang agreed to return to the six-party talks. The resumption of a diplomatic process is welcome but will likely face the same pitfalls as earlier rounds in which progress was undermined by a lack of clear understandings between North Korea and the U.S. While the six-party talks are a useful forum, resolving the nuclear issue will also require committed bilateral negotiations that address in detail North Korea's security concerns and U.S. demands for complete disarmament and intrusive verification. China's strong response may prove to be a major new factor pressing North Korea to offer more concessions in the talks, but only if the U.S. is prepared to set the table with a far more specific and appetizing menu than it has thus far.
Topic:
Security, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, China, Beijing, North Korea, and Pyongyang