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901. Afghanistan: Judicial Reform and Transitional Justice

Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Afghanistan's legal system has collapsed. Never strong to begin with, it has been nearly destroyed by 23 years of conflict and misrule. There are few trained lawyers, little physical infrastructure and no complete record of the country's laws. Under successive regimes, laws have been administered for mostly political ends with few protections of the rights of individuals to a fair trial. Although the country has signed up to most international agreements on human rights, abuses have been widespread, and military commanders have enjoyed impunity.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

902. The Kivus: The Forgotten Crucible of the Congo Conflict

Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
December 2002 witnessed the signing of a power sharing agreement between Congolese parties under the auspices of the UN Special Envoy, Mustapha Niasse, and South Africa that should lead to finalisation of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue and a transitional government. Yet, it is unlikely that the agreement alone will bring immediate peace. Serious fighting continues in Eastern Congo, particularly Kivu and Ituri Provinces, which have been the main theatres for direct and proxy confrontation between local, national and regional participants in the Congolese conflict since the cease-fire was signed in Lusaka in 1999. The population there is suffering enormously while there is an almost complete absence of international attention.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Lusaka

903. The Continuing Challenge Of Refugee Return In Bosnia Herzegovina

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In preparing for and orchestrating the proximity talks that marked the end of the 1992-1995 war in Bosnia Herzegovina (BiH), the authors of the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA) placed a particularly high priority on the return of refugees and internally displaced persons to their pre-war homes. Annex 7 of the DPA is devoted entirely to ensuring the right of return. The peacemakers hoped that such return might one day reverse the territorial, political and national partition of the country that the DPA otherwise recognised.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

904. Sudan's Oilfields Burn Again: Brinkmanship Endangers The Peace Process

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan's peace process survived a major challenge in the first weeks of the new year. Indeed, signature by the parties of a strengthened cessation of hostilities agreement on 4 February and a memorandum of understanding codifying points of agreement on outstanding issues of power and wealth sharing two days later indicates that the momentum to end the twenty-year old conflict is strong. However, the crisis produced by a government-sponsored offensive in the Western Upper Nile oilfields at the end of 2002 and through January raised questions about the Khartoum government's commitment to peace and showed that much more attention needs to be paid to pro-government southern militias and the commercial and political agendas for which they are being used.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Sudan and North Africa

905. Colombia: Prospects for Peace with the ELN

Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Alvaro Uribe was inaugurated President of Colombia on 7 August 2002 with a strong electoral mandate to fulfil his pledge to enhance the state's authority and guarantee security. In his inaugural address, Uribe promised to search for a negotiated solution to the long-standing armed confrontation with both insurgent groups, the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) as well as with the paramilitary United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC). However, in stark contrast to his predecessor, Andrés Pastrana, he conditioned new negotiations on a ceasefire and complete suspension of hostilities.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

906. The 10 March 2002 Parliamentary Elections in Colombia

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 10 March 2002, little more than two weeks after the end of the peace process with the insurgent Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC), Colombians elected a new House of Representatives and Senate. Despite heightened apprehension among the electorate and the government about violent interference by the guerrilla and paramilitary organisations, the polls took place in an atmosphere of relative calm and good order. In part this was due to the large-scale deployment of military and police forces across the country to guarantee voter security.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

907. Voices From The Iraqi Street

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As this briefing paper went to press, all eyes were on the United States and United Nations, the weapons inspectors, war preparations and the Iraqi regime's posture toward them. Yet, as has been true throughout this crisis, the unknown variable in the equation is the view of the Iraqi population. Living under a highly repressive and closed regime and bereft of genuine means of expression, the Iraqi people have largely appeared to the outside world as passive bystanders in a crisis that is bound to affect them more than anyone else. Speculation about how Iraqis view the current crisis has varied widely, with assessments often tailored to buttress political arguments regarding the wisdom of a U.S.-led war.
Topic:
Security and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Arabia, and United Nations

908. Arming Saddam: The Yugoslav Connection

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The democratic government elected in Belgrade in 2000 did not end the extensive busting of arms sanctions engaged in for many years by its predecessor, the Milosevic dictatorship. The NATO (SFOR) troops who raided an aircraft factory in Bosnia.s Republika Srpska on 12 October 2002 found documents that have begun to strip the veils of secrecy from this significant scandal. From ICG.s own investigations, as well as from those initial revelations and stories that have appeared subsequently in the Serbian press, it appears that arms deals of considerable monetary value continued with Iraq and Liberia despite the change of administrations.
Topic:
Politics and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iraq, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Arabia, Yugoslavia, Arab Countries, and Liberia

909. Return to Uncertainty: Kosovo's Internally Displaced and The Return Process

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The right of internally displaced people (IDPs) and refugees to return to their homes in Kosovo is indisputable, and has become a top priority of the international community, and the United Nations Interim Administrative Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

910. Finding the Balance: The Scales of Justice in Kosovo

Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
An independent, effective, and transparent justice system will be the cornerstone of a stable and democratic society in Kosovo. Ensuring that such a system is developed in a sustainable manner must be one of the top priorities of the United Nations Interim Administrative Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and the Provisional Institutions of Self- Government (PISG). In this report, ICG argues that although progress has been made, serious obstacles and challenges remain.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

911. A Half-Hearted Welcome: Refugee Return to Croatia

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Seven years after the end of the war, the issue of refugee return continues to be contentious for Croatia. The government that came to power following parliamentary and presidential elections in January and February 2000 inherited an unsatisfactory legacy of discriminatory laws and practices from its predecessor, to the detriment in particular of ethnic Serb displaced persons and refugees. It found that once the universal international relief that greeted its victory over the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) had worn off, international pressure to remove obstacles to refugee return and reintegration had not ended.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Croatia

912. Indonesia Backgrounder: How The Jemaah Islamiyah Terrorist Network Operates

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As the Indonesian-led investigation proceeds, the Bali attack on 12 October 2002 looks more and more like the work of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). But what exactly is Jemaah Islamiyah and how does it operate? It is one thing to describe, as many have by now, a network of Islamic radicals extending across Southeast Asia, led by Indonesian nationals, with a loose structure characterised by four territorial divisions known as mantiqis that cover peninsular Malaysia and Singapore; Java; Mindanao, Sabah, and Sulawesi; and Australia and Papua respectively.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, Australia, Singapore, Southeast Asia, and Papua

913. Central Asia: The Politics of Police Reform

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The capacity of security forces to both prevent and provoke conflict is increasingly recognised. Police forces can play a vital role in providing the security environment necessary for peaceful political and economic development, and are at the forefront of tackling international security issues, including drugs trafficking, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and terrorism. A competent and democratised security sector is vital to enhancing governance and ensuring greater public trust in the state. Bad security forces, on the other hand, can provoke or deepen conflict and create environments where terrorism can prosper. Getting the security sector right is a key element in conflict prevention.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Central Asia

914. Power and Wealth Sharing: Make or Break Time in Sudan's Peace Process

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The latest phase of the negotiations in Machakos, Kenya closed on 18 November 2002 with the signing of an important new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on power sharing and an extension of the earlier MOU on cessation of hostilities and unimpeded aid access. Significant progress was made during this phase. The Khartoum government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) are slowly, painstakingly elaborating the structures of governance and wealth sharing arrangements through intense haggling – for example, what proportion of seats southerners will have in the legislative bodies and the oil revenues that will go to a Southern Reconstruction Fund.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Kenya, Sudan, and North Africa

915. Salvaging Somalia's Chance For Peace

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 27 October 2002, Somali political leaders gathered in the Kenyan town of Eldoret signed a new declaration that envisages an end to the protracted crisis in their country. After more than a decade as the only country in the world totally devoid of a functioning central government and no less than twenty unsuccessful national-level peace initiatives since 1991, the Eldoret Declaration has raised hopes that resolution of the Somali crisis may now be within reach.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Kenya, North Africa, and Somalia

916. The Meanings of Palestinian Reform

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since U.S. President George W. Bush's 24 June 2002 statement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Palestinian reform has emerged as a key ingredient in Middle East diplomacy. In his statement, the president publicly identified “a new and different Palestinian leadership” and “entirely new political and economic institutions” as preconditions for the establishment of a Palestinian state. In early July, the Quartet of Middle East mediators (the European Union, Russian Federation, United Nations, and United States) established an International Task Force for Palestinian Reform “to develop and implement a comprehensive reform action plan” for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The September 2002 statement by the Quartet underscored reform of Palestinian political, civil, and security institutions as an integral component of peacemaking. The three phase-implementation roadmap, a U.S. draft of which was presented to Israel and the Palestinians by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State William Burns in October, provided details on this reform component.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and United Nations

917. Old Games, New Rules: Conflict on the Israel-Lebanon Border

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Israel-Lebanon border is the only Arab-Israeli front to have witnessed continuous violence since the late 1960s and it could become the trigger for a broader Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet, in recent times it has been the object of very little international focus. Amidst raging warfare between Israelis and Palestinians and mounting war-talk surrounding Iraq, there is scant energy to devote to a conflict that, since Israel's May 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon, appears devoid of justification and which neither of its principal protagonists seems interested in escalating. But ignoring it could be costly. Neither its roots nor its implications have ever been purely local. Israel's withdrawal has lessened the immediate costs but in some ways rendered the problem more unpredictable. Stripped of its cover as an Israeli-Lebanese border dispute, it has laid bare both the underlying Israeli-Syrian confrontation and Iran's involvement in the conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

918. Rwanda at the End of the Transition: A Necessary Political Liberalisation

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nine years after the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has reached another crossroads. The transition period defined by the Arusha Accords will be concluded in less than a year by a constitutional referendum and by multi-party elections which should symbolize the successful democratisation of the country. Today, however, there are multiple restrictions on political and civil liberty and no sign of any guarantee, or even indication, in the outline of the constitutional plan that the political opposition will be able to participate in these elections on an equal footing with the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), in power since 1994.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

919. Moving Macedonia Towards Self-Sufficiency: A New Security Approach for NATO and the EU

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Macedonia's 15 September 2002 election suggests the country may have turned a corner on the road to stability. Widely anticipated fraud and violence mostly did not materialise. Unlike in neighbouring Kosovo a few weeks later, a cross section of voters from all ethnicities streamed to the polls. They elected a government that has embraced the Framework Agreement brokered by the European Union (EU), the U.S. and NATO at Ohrid in August 2001 to end the incipient civil war and that has pledged to manage inter-ethnic issues through consensus, not simply division of spoils, to overhaul the scandal-plagued “Lions” security unit, and fight massive, endemic corruption.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Macedonia

920. Kashmir: The View From Srinagar

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Recent state elections in Jammu and Kashmir, and the loss of power by the National Conference party that has dominated politics there since independence, have created a spark of hope that political tensions in the Kashmir Valley could de-escalate. It was a badly flawed election in 1987 that helped fuel a long running militant insurrection and general uprising, and tens of thousands have died in subsequent violence. Violence has been further amplified by historical strategic tensions between India and Pakistan over Jammu and Kashmir, and Kashmiri hopes for a political voice have often unfortunately become caught up in this broader international rivalry.
Topic:
Democratization, Regional Cooperation, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Pakistan, India, Kashmir, and Southeast Asia