Publishing Institution: International Crisis Group / Topic:

901. Afghanistan: Judicial Reform and Transitional Justice

Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Afghanistan's legal system has collapsed. Never strong to begin with, it has been nearly destroyed by 23 years of conflict and misrule. There are few trained lawyers, little physical infrastructure and no complete record of the country's laws. Under successive regimes, laws have been administered for mostly political ends with few protections of the rights of individuals to a fair trial. Although the country has signed up to most international agreements on human rights, abuses have been widespread, and military commanders have enjoyed impunity.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Central Asia

902. The Kivus: The Forgotten Crucible of the Congo Conflict

Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: December 2002 witnessed the signing of a power sharing agreement between Congolese parties under the auspices of the UN Special Envoy, Mustapha Niasse, and South Africa that should lead to finalisation of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue and a transitional government. Yet, it is unlikely that the agreement alone will bring immediate peace. Serious fighting continues in Eastern Congo, particularly Kivu and Ituri Provinces, which have been the main theatres for direct and proxy confrontation between local, national and regional participants in the Congolese conflict since the cease-fire was signed in Lusaka in 1999. The population there is suffering enormously while there is an almost complete absence of international attention.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Lusaka

903. The Continuing Challenge Of Refugee Return In Bosnia Herzegovina

Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In preparing for and orchestrating the proximity talks that marked the end of the 1992-1995 war in Bosnia Herzegovina (BiH), the authors of the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA) placed a particularly high priority on the return of refugees and internally displaced persons to their pre-war homes. Annex 7 of the DPA is devoted entirely to ensuring the right of return. The peacemakers hoped that such return might one day reverse the territorial, political and national partition of the country that the DPA otherwise recognised.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

904. Sudan's Oilfields Burn Again: Brinkmanship Endangers The Peace Process

Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Sudan's peace process survived a major challenge in the first weeks of the new year. Indeed, signature by the parties of a strengthened cessation of hostilities agreement on 4 February and a memorandum of understanding codifying points of agreement on outstanding issues of power and wealth sharing two days later indicates that the momentum to end the twenty-year old conflict is strong. However, the crisis produced by a government-sponsored offensive in the Western Upper Nile oilfields at the end of 2002 and through January raised questions about the Khartoum government's commitment to peace and showed that much more attention needs to be paid to pro-government southern militias and the commercial and political agendas for which they are being used.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Sudan and North Africa

905. Colombia: Prospects for Peace with the ELN

Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Alvaro Uribe was inaugurated President of Colombia on 7 August 2002 with a strong electoral mandate to fulfil his pledge to enhance the state's authority and guarantee security. In his inaugural address, Uribe promised to search for a negotiated solution to the long-standing armed confrontation with both insurgent groups, the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) as well as with the paramilitary United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC). However, in stark contrast to his predecessor, Andrés Pastrana, he conditioned new negotiations on a ceasefire and complete suspension of hostilities.
Topic:: Security and Politics
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

906. The 10 March 2002 Parliamentary Elections in Colombia

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 10 March 2002, little more than two weeks after the end of the peace process with the insurgent Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC), Colombians elected a new House of Representatives and Senate. Despite heightened apprehension among the electorate and the government about violent interference by the guerrilla and paramilitary organisations, the polls took place in an atmosphere of relative calm and good order. In part this was due to the large-scale deployment of military and police forces across the country to guarantee voter security.
Topic:: Security and Politics
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

907. Voices From The Iraqi Street

Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: As this briefing paper went to press, all eyes were on the United States and United Nations, the weapons inspectors, war preparations and the Iraqi regime's posture toward them. Yet, as has been true throughout this crisis, the unknown variable in the equation is the view of the Iraqi population. Living under a highly repressive and closed regime and bereft of genuine means of expression, the Iraqi people have largely appeared to the outside world as passive bystanders in a crisis that is bound to affect them more than anyone else. Speculation about how Iraqis view the current crisis has varied widely, with assessments often tailored to buttress political arguments regarding the wisdom of a U.S.-led war.
Topic:: Security and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Arabia, and United Nations

908. Arming Saddam: The Yugoslav Connection

Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The democratic government elected in Belgrade in 2000 did not end the extensive busting of arms sanctions engaged in for many years by its predecessor, the Milosevic dictatorship. The NATO (SFOR) troops who raided an aircraft factory in Bosnia.s Republika Srpska on 12 October 2002 found documents that have begun to strip the veils of secrecy from this significant scandal. From ICG.s own investigations, as well as from those initial revelations and stories that have appeared subsequently in the Serbian press, it appears that arms deals of considerable monetary value continued with Iraq and Liberia despite the change of administrations.
Topic:: Politics and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Iraq, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Arabia, Yugoslavia, Arab Countries, and Liberia

909. Return to Uncertainty: Kosovo's Internally Displaced and The Return Process

Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The right of internally displaced people (IDPs) and refugees to return to their homes in Kosovo is indisputable, and has become a top priority of the international community, and the United Nations Interim Administrative Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

910. Finding the Balance: The Scales of Justice in Kosovo

Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: An independent, effective, and transparent justice system will be the cornerstone of a stable and democratic society in Kosovo. Ensuring that such a system is developed in a sustainable manner must be one of the top priorities of the United Nations Interim Administrative Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and the Provisional Institutions of Self- Government (PISG). In this report, ICG argues that although progress has been made, serious obstacles and challenges remain.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

911. A Half-Hearted Welcome: Refugee Return to Croatia

Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Seven years after the end of the war, the issue of refugee return continues to be contentious for Croatia. The government that came to power following parliamentary and presidential elections in January and February 2000 inherited an unsatisfactory legacy of discriminatory laws and practices from its predecessor, to the detriment in particular of ethnic Serb displaced persons and refugees. It found that once the universal international relief that greeted its victory over the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) had worn off, international pressure to remove obstacles to refugee return and reintegration had not ended.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Croatia

912. Indonesia Backgrounder: How The Jemaah Islamiyah Terrorist Network Operates

Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: As the Indonesian-led investigation proceeds, the Bali attack on 12 October 2002 looks more and more like the work of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). But what exactly is Jemaah Islamiyah and how does it operate? It is one thing to describe, as many have by now, a network of Islamic radicals extending across Southeast Asia, led by Indonesian nationals, with a loose structure characterised by four territorial divisions known as mantiqis that cover peninsular Malaysia and Singapore; Java; Mindanao, Sabah, and Sulawesi; and Australia and Papua respectively.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, Australia, Singapore, Southeast Asia, and Papua

913. Central Asia: The Politics of Police Reform

Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The capacity of security forces to both prevent and provoke conflict is increasingly recognised. Police forces can play a vital role in providing the security environment necessary for peaceful political and economic development, and are at the forefront of tackling international security issues, including drugs trafficking, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and terrorism. A competent and democratised security sector is vital to enhancing governance and ensuring greater public trust in the state. Bad security forces, on the other hand, can provoke or deepen conflict and create environments where terrorism can prosper. Getting the security sector right is a key element in conflict prevention.
Topic:: Security, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: Central Asia

914. Power and Wealth Sharing: Make or Break Time in Sudan's Peace Process

Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The latest phase of the negotiations in Machakos, Kenya closed on 18 November 2002 with the signing of an important new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on power sharing and an extension of the earlier MOU on cessation of hostilities and unimpeded aid access. Significant progress was made during this phase. The Khartoum government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) are slowly, painstakingly elaborating the structures of governance and wealth sharing arrangements through intense haggling – for example, what proportion of seats southerners will have in the legislative bodies and the oil revenues that will go to a Southern Reconstruction Fund.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Kenya, Sudan, and North Africa

915. Salvaging Somalia's Chance For Peace

Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 27 October 2002, Somali political leaders gathered in the Kenyan town of Eldoret signed a new declaration that envisages an end to the protracted crisis in their country. After more than a decade as the only country in the world totally devoid of a functioning central government and no less than twenty unsuccessful national-level peace initiatives since 1991, the Eldoret Declaration has raised hopes that resolution of the Somali crisis may now be within reach.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Kenya, North Africa, and Somalia

916. The Meanings of Palestinian Reform

Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Since U.S. President George W. Bush's 24 June 2002 statement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Palestinian reform has emerged as a key ingredient in Middle East diplomacy. In his statement, the president publicly identified “a new and different Palestinian leadership” and “entirely new political and economic institutions” as preconditions for the establishment of a Palestinian state. In early July, the Quartet of Middle East mediators (the European Union, Russian Federation, United Nations, and United States) established an International Task Force for Palestinian Reform “to develop and implement a comprehensive reform action plan” for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The September 2002 statement by the Quartet underscored reform of Palestinian political, civil, and security institutions as an integral component of peacemaking. The three phase-implementation roadmap, a U.S. draft of which was presented to Israel and the Palestinians by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State William Burns in October, provided details on this reform component.
Topic:: Civil Society, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and United Nations

917. Old Games, New Rules: Conflict on the Israel-Lebanon Border

Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Israel-Lebanon border is the only Arab-Israeli front to have witnessed continuous violence since the late 1960s and it could become the trigger for a broader Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet, in recent times it has been the object of very little international focus. Amidst raging warfare between Israelis and Palestinians and mounting war-talk surrounding Iraq, there is scant energy to devote to a conflict that, since Israel's May 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon, appears devoid of justification and which neither of its principal protagonists seems interested in escalating. But ignoring it could be costly. Neither its roots nor its implications have ever been purely local. Israel's withdrawal has lessened the immediate costs but in some ways rendered the problem more unpredictable. Stripped of its cover as an Israeli-Lebanese border dispute, it has laid bare both the underlying Israeli-Syrian confrontation and Iran's involvement in the conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

918. Rwanda at the End of the Transition: A Necessary Political Liberalisation

Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Nine years after the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has reached another crossroads. The transition period defined by the Arusha Accords will be concluded in less than a year by a constitutional referendum and by multi-party elections which should symbolize the successful democratisation of the country. Today, however, there are multiple restrictions on political and civil liberty and no sign of any guarantee, or even indication, in the outline of the constitutional plan that the political opposition will be able to participate in these elections on an equal footing with the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), in power since 1994.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa and Rwanda

919. Moving Macedonia Towards Self-Sufficiency: A New Security Approach for NATO and the EU

Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Macedonia's 15 September 2002 election suggests the country may have turned a corner on the road to stability. Widely anticipated fraud and violence mostly did not materialise. Unlike in neighbouring Kosovo a few weeks later, a cross section of voters from all ethnicities streamed to the polls. They elected a government that has embraced the Framework Agreement brokered by the European Union (EU), the U.S. and NATO at Ohrid in August 2001 to end the incipient civil war and that has pledged to manage inter-ethnic issues through consensus, not simply division of spoils, to overhaul the scandal-plagued “Lions” security unit, and fight massive, endemic corruption.
Topic:: Security and NATO
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Macedonia

920. Kashmir: The View From Srinagar

Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Recent state elections in Jammu and Kashmir, and the loss of power by the National Conference party that has dominated politics there since independence, have created a spark of hope that political tensions in the Kashmir Valley could de-escalate. It was a badly flawed election in 1987 that helped fuel a long running militant insurrection and general uprising, and tens of thousands have died in subsequent violence. Violence has been further amplified by historical strategic tensions between India and Pakistan over Jammu and Kashmir, and Kashmiri hopes for a political voice have often unfortunately become caught up in this broader international rivalry.
Topic:: Democratization, Regional Cooperation, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Pakistan, India, Kashmir, and Southeast Asia

921. Ending Starvation as a Weapon of War in Sudan

Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Warring parties and international aid providers in Sudan have an historic opportunity to bring to an end what is perhaps the most extreme and long-running example in the world of using access to humanitarian aid as an instrument of war. A mid- December meeting between the UN and Sudan's warring parties – the Technical Committee for Humanitarian Assistance (TCHA) – provides an unparalleled vehicle to build on recent short-term agreements and to once and for all remove the institutional barriers to unimpeded access for humanitarian agencies. Such an opportunity may not arise again, so it is imperative that mediators, the UN Security Council, and interested governments provide concentrated and immediate support for this objective.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Human Welfare, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Sudan, United Nations, and North Africa

922. Iraq Backgrounder: What Lies Beneath

Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: This background report reviews the mechanics of Saddam Hussein's rule, looks at the political dynamics that govern relations between religious and ethnic entities, and describes the various opposition groups and their potential role. It does not seek to predict the course of events in Iraq or to argue for any particular course of action. This is the first in a series of reports and briefing papers that ICG intends to issue on the challenges posed by Iraq, including the state of the country more than a decade after the Gulf War; regional attitudes toward a possible U.S. military offensive; the status of Iraqi Kurdistan; and Iran's posture toward a U.S.-led war and Iraq after Saddam Hussein.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan

923. Zimbabwe: The Politics of National Liberation and International Division

Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Despite the rising humanitarian costs of the crisis in Zimbabwe, the international community remains deeply divided about its response, allowing President Mugabe to believe that he can exploit the policy fissure between – broadly – the West and Africa. The foreign media's emphasis on the plight of white commercial farmers plays into the regime's liberation rhetoric, reinforcing the erroneous but widespread belief in Africa that the West is concerned about Zimbabwe only because white property interests have been harmed. What is happening in Zimbabwe and the lack of a continental response have damaged perceptions of Africa in the wider international community, weakening in the process the promising but still embryonic New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) and the African Union (AU).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

924. Myanmar: The Future of the Armed Forces

Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The release of Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest on 6 May 2002 has generated some optimism about political progress in Myanmar. It remains to be seen, however, whether all political actors will be able to translate the new cooperative atmosphere into actual compromises in key policy areas.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia and Myanmar

925. Indonesia: Resources and Conflict in Papua

Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The struggle over land and natural resource rights is a key aspect of the conflict in Papua, formerly known as Irian Jaya, that pits the Indonesian state against an independence movement supported by most of the indigenous population. It is thought to have cost many thousands of lives since the 1960s, mostly Papuan civilians killed by the security forces. Among the most recent victims were three employees of the giant mining company, PT Freeport Indonesia, killed in a well-planned attack on 31 August 2002.
Topic:: Environment, Government, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Papua

926. The OSCE in Central Asia: A New Strategy

Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) emerged in a wave of euphoria surrounding the events of the late 1980s in the former Soviet bloc. Building on the achievements of its predecessor, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), it has played a key role in state-building and democratisation in many areas of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.
Topic:: Development, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, and Soviet Union

927. Sudan's Best Chance for Peace: How Not to Lose It

Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 1 September 2002, two weeks into the second phase of the peace negotiations in Machakos, Kenya, the Sudanese government suspended its participation in the talks being brokered by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). This followed the capture, after a series of battles, of the southeastern Sudanese town of Torit by the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLA).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Kenya, Sudan, and North Africa

928. Iran: The Struggle for the Revolution's Soul

Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Iran is at a crossroads. More than two decades after the revolution that swept Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini into power, its people and leaders are deeply torn about the country's future. The outcome of the struggle for the revolution's soul will resonate across the Middle East and have major implications both strategically and for ongoing efforts to curb violence, including terrorism, in the region. The internal struggle is fluid and unstable. While the notion of a clear-cut battle pitting conservatives against reformers is appealing, it does not do justice to the reality. There are divisions within both camps and connections between them; indeed, some actors may be “conservative” on certain issues and “reformers” on others. Likewise, the idea that Iran's rulers can be dismissed en bloc as obstacles to reform overlooks the genuine differences that exist regarding the proper role of religion, democracy, social norms, economics and foreign policy. The complexity of Iran's domestic situation makes it all the more difficult – but also imperative – for the international community to exercise caution, properly fine-tune its actions and anticipate their impact.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

929. Bosnia's Alliance for (Smallish) Change

Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Put together under the tutelage of representatives of the international community in the aftermath of the November 2000 general elections, the ten-party coalition known as the Democratic Alliance for Change has governed the larger of Bosnia Herzegovina's two entities and led the state-level Council of Ministers since early 2001. Intended by its sponsors and members to sideline the three nationalist parties that had fought the 1992-95 war and ruled their respective pieces of BiH thereafter, the Alliance was also expected to undertake thoroughgoing reforms and to provide proof that implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords might yet produce a viable state.
Topic:: Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia and Eastern Europe

930. Macedonia's Public Secret: How Corruption Drags The Country Down

Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Corruption in Macedonia, especially at high levels of government, is endemic. It has evolved from passive exploitation to active coercion and acquired the capacity not only to retard economic progress but also to feed organised crime and, in turn, political and communal instability. In effect, the state has come to function in important respects as a “racket”, while the racketeers thrive in a culture of impunity.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Macedonia

931. Kyrgyzstan's Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy

Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: ICG's first report on Kyrgyzstan, published in August 2001, highlighted the potential for crisis facing the country. International attention was then rarely focused on Central Asia but since September 2001 the region has suddenly registered on policy-makers' agendas. Nearly 2,000 U.S. and Coalition troops are now located at Manas Airport near Bishkek, as part of the forces active in Afghanistan, and Kyrgyzstan is playing a key strategic role in the region. Stability in this country is now of fundamental concern to the international community but, since early 2002, it has declined sharply.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Central Asia, and Kyrgyzstan

932. Al-Qaeda in Southeast Asia: The case of the "Ngruki Network" in Indonesia (Corrected on 10 January 2003)

Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: One network of militant Muslims has produced all the Indonesian nationals so far suspected of links to al-Qaeda. This briefing paper explains how that network emerged, its historical antecedents, and the political dynamics over the last two decades that led some of its members from Indonesia to Malaysia to Afghanistan. It is part of an occasional series that ICG intends to issue on the nature of radical Islam in Southeast Asia.
Topic:: Terrorism and War
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia

933. The Burundi Rebellion and the Ceasefire Negotiations

Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Prospects are still weak for a ceasefire agreement in Burundi that includes all rebel factions. Despite the Arusha agreement in August 2000 and installation of a transition government on 1 November 2001, the warring parties, the Burundi army and the various factions of the Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People/National Liberation Forces (PALIPEHUTU-FNL) and of the National Council for the Defense of Democracy/Defense Forces of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), are still fighting. Neither side has been able to gain a decisive military advantage, although the army recently claimed several important victories.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa and Burundi

934. The International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda: The Countdown

Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Il reste officiellement un peu plus de cinq ans au Tribunal pénal international pour le Rwanda (TPIR) pour achever le mandat qui lui a été confié, en novembre 1994, par le Conseil de sécurité des Nations unies. Le TPIR se trouve donc exactement à mi-parcours de son mandat. Depuis un an et demi, plusieurs nouveaux procès ont été initiés. Toutefois malgré cette amélioration significative marquée par un fort regain d'activité, le Tribunal d'Arusha n'a pas établi, les priorités judiciaires qui lui permettraient de remplir son mandat avant 2008. En mai 2001, ICG publiait un premier rapport bilan des activités du TPIR intitulé: "L'urgence de juger". Cette urgence reste, malheureusement, toujours d'actualité.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Africa and Rwanda

935. Middle East Endgame I: Getting To A Comprehensive Arab-Israeli Peace Settlement

Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: President Bush, announcing U.S. policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on 24 June 2002, has set the terms of the international response to the conflict for the immediately foreseeable period. Before peace can be negotiated the violence has to stop. If the Palestinians are to have their own state – and the clear message is that they should – it must be one based on the principles of democracy, transparency and the rule of law. For that to happen the current leadership needs to go. The logic is sequential: political progress is conditional on a new security environment, institutional reform and, in effect, on regime change.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

936. Fighting to Control Yugoslavia's Military

Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica's 24 June 2002 sacking of Yugoslav Army (VJ) Chief of the General Staff Nebojsa Pavkovic was necessary, welcome, and long overdue. The EU, U.S., and NATO acclaimed the move as an effort to assert civilian control over the military, and Kostunica indeed deserves credit for removing a significant obstacle to the country's reintegration with Europe. Nonetheless, the action was probably more the result of the ongoing power struggle between Kostunica and Serbian Premier Zoran Djindjic than a genuine effort to bring the military under civilian control or dismantle the extra-constitutional parallel command structures that the post-Milosevic leadership of the country has created within the VJ.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, United Nations, and Serbia

937. The Afghan Transitional Administration: Prospects and Perils

Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Emergency Loya Jirga, or grand national assembly, held from 10 to 21 June 2002 in Kabul was a small but critical step in Afghanistan's political development. It was an opportunity to accord national legitimacy to the peace process begun at Bonn in November 2001 but it produced mixed results. From a narrow perspective, it was a success: representatives from across Afghanistan came together to elect, or rather anoint, a head of state, and the major armed factions kept their hats in the political ring rather than resort to violence. Given the last three decades of war and turmoil, this is significant.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Central Asia

938. Pakistan: Madrasas, Extremism And The Military

Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In its new role as key ally in the U.S.-led war on terrorism, Pakistan's military government has toned down many policies that previously fostered militancy and religious extremism within the country and internationally. Action against the Taliban, al-Qaeda and home-grown sectarian terrorists are examples. But the military's confrontation with its former religious allies is likely, at best, a short-term response compelled by circumstances and foreign pressure.
Topic:: Development, Education, and Politics
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, and South Asia

939. Kashmir: Confrontation and Miscalculation

Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: With tensions in Kashmir and the confrontation between Pakistan and India appearing to cool in recent weeks, it would be easy for the international community to focus its attention elsewhere. Unfortunately, the dynamics underpinning the conflict between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control (the de facto border dividing the two countries in Kashmir) have not changed, and the potential for strategic miscalculations by both sides and broader fighting remains all too real. Indeed, the heart of the dispute is being driven by both local political conditions in Kashmir and much more sweeping issues of national politics and national sovereignty in both countries. Further complicating the situation, both Pakistan and India have sought to use the U.S.-proclaimed “global war on terrorism” to their own tactical advantage, increasing the risk of military missteps.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

940. Dialogue or Destruction? Organising for Peace as the War in Sudan Escalates

Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Sudan's civil war, already one of the deadliest conflicts since World War II, has entered its most destructive phase to date. Oil revenues have allowed the government to purchase increasingly lethal weapons, more effectively pursue population-clearing operations, and expand the use of its greatest comparative advantage, air power. The rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) has greater manpower to deploy on multiple fronts, has also acquired more sophisticated arms, and is engaging government forces in more intense conventional battles.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Sudan and North Africa

941. Zimbabwe: What Next?

Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In the aftermath of the deeply flawed March 2002 presidential election, Zimbabwe has dropped off the radar screen of most policy-makers and media but its crisis is deepening: the ruling ZANU-PF party and the government are systematically using violence to intimidate the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and civil society in order to punish and compel them to accept the results; the economy is further deteriorating as foreign investment and food both become scarce commodities; with regional drought compounding the land seizure crisis, UN agencies warn of possible famine; and as the opposition considers mass protests, the prospect of serious internal conflict is becoming imminent, with grave implications for the stability of the wider Southern African region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

942. The Stakes in the Presidential Election in Colombia

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: This presidential election (first round on 26 May 2002; second round, if needed, on 16 June) will be crucial for the future of Colombia's democracy and its struggle against insurgents and paramilitaries, drugs and widespread poverty. Social and economic distress is now widespread. Public frustration with the ill-fated peace process of the Pastrana Administration over the past three years, its definitive rupture on 20 February 2002, and increased attacks by the main rebel group, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia- Ejército del Pueblo (FARC) on civilians and infrastructure since mid-January have made “war/peace” and “violence” the key vote- determining issues. The failure to negotiate a solution to the longstanding civil war over the past three years has polarised the electorate.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

943. Still Buying Time: Montenegro, Serbia and the European Union

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 14 March 2002 the leaders of Serbia, Montenegro and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) signed an agreement in Belgrade to replace FRY with a new “state community”: a “union of states” to be called “Serbia and Montenegro”.
Topic:: Politics and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro

944. Policing The Police In Bosnia: A Further Reform Agenda

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Despite more than six years of increasingly intrusive reforms carried out at the behest of the UN Mission in Bosnia Herzegovina (UNMIBH), the local police cannot yet be counted upon to enforce the law. Too often – like their opposite numbers in the judiciary – nationally partial, under-qualified, underpaid, and sometimes corrupt police officers uphold the law selectively, within a dysfunctional system still controlled by politicised and nationalised interior ministries.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

945. Central Asia: Water and Conflict

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Competition for water is increasing in Central Asia at an alarming rate, adding tension to what is already an uneasy region. Agriculture is the mainstay of the region's economy, and thirsty crops such as cotton and rice require intensive irrigation. Water use has increased rapidly since the Central Asian states became independent in 1991 and is now at an unsustainable level. Irrigation systems have decayed so severely that half of all water never reaches crops, and several years of drought have cut available water by a fifth even as demand continues to soar. Efforts to rebuild Afghanistan will now put yet more strain on supplies.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, and Environment
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Central Asia

946. Resuming U.S.-Indonesia Military Ties

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The U.S. Congress will soon debate a proposal for funding to train an Indonesian military unit to deal with troubled areas within the country. If approved, the package would be a major step towards the restoration of relations between the U.S. and Indonesian armed forces, damaged by the latter's actions in East Timor. But whatever the apparent attractions in bilateral and security terms of taking this step, ICG believes that the proposed package is flawed.
Topic:: Diplomacy and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia

947. The Loya Jirga: One Small Step Forward?

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The immensity of the task of rebuilding Afghanistan into something resembling a coherent state cannot be over-estimated. Nearly three decades of political instability – including many years of savage warfare, the wholesale destruction of political and physical infrastructure and the inflammation of ethnic divisions – are layered on top of a nation that was among the poorest and weakest governed even in its "golden age" before King Zahir Shah was deposed in 1973. Afghanistan's transition back to a minimum level of political and economic stability will require many small but crucial steps to keep it on course.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Central Asia

948. Indonesia: The Implications of the Timor Trials

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: As East Timor moves toward independence on 20 May 2002, trials are proceeding in Jakarta against Indonesian army and police officers and civilian officials accused of serious human rights violations in connection with the 1999 violence there. Within Indonesia, the trials have generated little interest, nothing approaching the attention given to the prosecution of Tommy Soeharto, the former president's son. Abroad, the delays in getting the trials underway, the high-ranking position of some defendants, the inexperience of the judges in trying human rights crimes, and the government's pointed lack of interest in addressing military impunity have raised doubts that any of the accused will be convicted.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

949. Burundi After Six Months Of Transition: Continuing The War Or Winning Peace?

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Fourteen months after the signing of the Arusha framework agreement, the Burundi transition government was sworn in on November 1, 2001, in the presence of the leaders of Nigeria, Tanzania, Malawi, Rwanda and Zambia, Nelson Mandela and a host of other African and international delegations. The new government comprised twenty-six ministers representing majority Hutu (G7) and majority Tutsi (G10) political parties, all signatories to the Arusha accords of August 2000 in Tanzania. A few days before the swearing-in ceremony, several political leaders, including Jean Minani, president of the FRODEBU party, returned from exile to join the government, after guarantees for their protection were provided by the presence of seven hundred South African soldiers. The deal struck between Minani's FRODEBU and Pierre Buyoya's UPRONA, which was formalised by the accord on the transition government of 23 July 2001, made the two parties by far the biggest beneficiaries of power-sharing. The transition phase was slated to last 36 months, with a mid-term transfer of power in May 2003, when the current vice-president, Domitien Ndayizeye of FRODEBU, will replace the president of UPRONA PIERRE Buyoya.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, Tanzania, Nigeria, Rwanda, Burundi, Zambia, and Malawi

950. Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: After seven weeks of negotiations at Sun City, a partial agreement was reached on 19 April 2002 between Jean-Pierre Bemba's MLC (Mouvement pour la libération du Congo) and the government of Joseph Kabila. The agreement represents the end of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue in the context of the Lusaka peace accords. However confusion reigns. The negotiations are not complete and the future of the Democratic Republic of Congo remains uncertain.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

951. Somalia: Countering Terrorism in a Failed State

Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: For the first time since the last UN mission left the country in 1995, there is considerable international interest in Somalia, centred on the possibility that the country may become part of the global war against terrorism. The U.S. government suspects that al-Qaeda may have used Somalia as a staging area or safe haven in the past and remains concerned – though less than in the immediate aftermath of the 11 September 2001 attacks – that it could do so again because of the country's highly fragmented internal security situation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Terrorism, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, United Nations, North Africa, and Somalia

952. EU Crisis Response Capabilities: An Update

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In June 2001, ICG published a first report on EU crisis response capabilities, which presented a snapshot of the institutions, policies and processes for conflict prevention and crisis management as they stood at mid 2001. It described the respective roles in external relations matters of the three key EU institutions, Council, Commission and Parliament, and the evolving machinery for implementing more coordinated strategies in the formulation of general policy positions, conflict prevention and conflict management.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Europe

953. Implementing Equality: The "Constituent Peoples" Decision in Bosnia Herzegovina

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In July 2000, the Constitutional Court of Bosnia Herzegovina made an historic ruling requiring the two entities, the Federation of BiH and Republika Srpska (RS), to amend their constitutions to ensure the full equality of the country's three “constituent peoples” throughout its territory.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

954. Central Asia: Border Disputes and Conflict Potential

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: For the past decade Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have all been involved in high stakes negotiations to define their respective borders. Strong-arm politics, economic pressures, shadowy backroom deals, nationalist sentiments, public dissatisfaction and an environment of mutual mistrust have marked this process. The resolution of border issues peacefully and transparently would have a positive impact on regional security, economic cooperation, ethnic relations and efforts to combat drug trafficking and religious extremism. But progress has been slow, and no immediate breakthrough can be seen in an all too often antagonistic process that is defining the new map of Central Asia.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

955. Myanmar: The Politics of Humanitarian Aid

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Since the 1988 uprising and 1990 election in Burma/Myanmar, foreign governments and international organisations have promoted democratisation as the solution to the country's manifold problems, including ethnic conflict, endemic social instability, and general underdevelopment. Over time, however, as the political stalemate has continued and data on the socioeconomic conditions in the country have improved, there has been a growing recognition that the political crisis is paralleled by a humanitarian crisis that requires more immediate and direct international attention. Donors face a dilemma. On the one hand, the humanitarian imperative raises difficult questions about the sustainability of international strategies based on coercive diplomacy and economic isolation, which have greatly limited international assistance to Myanmar. On the other hand, there is widespread concern that re-engagement, even in the form of limited humanitarian assistance, could undermine the quest for political change and long-term improvements.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

956. Myanmar: The HIV/AIDS Crisis

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: HIV prevalence is rising rapidly in Burma/Myanmar, fuelled by population mobility, poverty and frustration that breeds risky sexual activity and drug-taking. Already, one in 50 adults are estimated to be infected, and infection rates in sub-populations with especially risky behaviour (such as drug users and sex workers) are among the highest in Asia. Because of the long lag time between HIV infection and death, the true impact of the epidemic is just beginning to be felt. Households are losing breadwinners, children are losing parents, and some of the hardest-hit communities, particularly some fishing villages with very high losses from HIV/AIDS, are losing hope. Worse is to come, but how much worse depends on the decisions that Myanmar and the international community take in the coming months and years.
Topic:: Human Welfare, International Cooperation, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

957. Capturing the Moment: Sudan's Peace Process in the Balance

Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Sudan's window of opportunity threatens to become a missed opportunity if the peace process is not revitalised in the near future. Escalation of fighting around the oil fields, increasing use by the government of helicopter gunships against civilian as well as military targets, and indecision surrounding the nature of wider international engagement all put at risk Sudan's best chance for peace since the latest phase of civil war began nearly nineteen years ago. The parties continue to signal that they are ready to negotiate seriously. The international community, and in particular the United States, must seize this opportunity to revitalise the peace process before the two sides recommit themselves to resolving Africa's longest conflict on the battlefield.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, Sudan, and North Africa

958. Colombia's Elusive Quest for Peace

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In February 2002, negotiations to end the most dangerous confrontation of Colombia's decades of civil war collapsed. Nearly four years earlier, the newly-inaugurated President Andrés Pastrana had opened talks with the country's major remaining rebel groups, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC) and the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), with great enthusiasm and hope. But the fighting never ended while the talks sputtered on, and the country now appears headed for a new round of violence in its cities and against its infrastructure. The international community is concerned about the implications not only for Colombia's people and its democratic institutions, but also wider regional stability.
Topic:: Security and Politics
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Latin America

959. Courting Disaster: The Misrule of Law in Bosnia Herzegovina

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The law does not yet rule in Bosnia Herzegovina. What prevail instead are nationally defined politics, inconsistency in the application of law, corrupt and incompetent courts, a fragmented judicial space, half-baked or half-implemented reforms, and sheer negligence. Bosnia is, in short, a land where respect for and confidence in the law and its defenders is weak.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

960. A Kosovo Roadmap (II): Internal Benchmarks

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Since Kosovo became an international protectorate under United Nations administration in June 1999, much has been done to stabilise the province and set up a functioning administration. Yet nothing has been done to address the central question that lay at the heart of the conflict in Kosovo, and which remains the issue of overriding importance for the province's inhabitants: the issue of final status.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

961. A Kosovo Roadmap (I): Addressing Final Status

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Since Kosovo became an international protectorate under United Nations administration in June 1999, much has been done to stabilise the province and set up a functioning administration. Yet nothing has been done to resolve the question at the heart of the conflict in Kosovo, and which remains the issue of overriding importance for the province's inhabitants: the issue of final status.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

962. Belgrade's Lagging Reform: Cause for International Concern

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: For more than a decade Serbia was the driving force behind much of the instability in the Balkans. Following the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic on 5 October 2000, it was hoped that Serbia would promptly reform the external policies of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) that had caused such disruption. To date, these hopes have been substantially disappointed.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

963. Serbia: Military Intervention Threatens Democratic Reform

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Yugoslav Army's arrest on 14 March 2002 of a leading Serbian politician and a U.S. diplomat signals that for the first time the Army has openly entered the political arena and is explicitly attempting to set limits on political debate and policy. Serbian politicians will cross those red lines at their peril. The nationalist, conservative and corrupt military, which as the incident demonstrates is at least substantially beyond civilian control, seems intent on protecting important elements of the Milosevic legacy and is apparently now prepared to intervene more openly to influence negatively a broad range of policies, including the domestic reform agenda, cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, and relations with neighbouring countries. That Serbia is struggling to decide whether its course is toward the European mainstream or the reactionary polity of a Belarus should be of great concern to the international community.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

964. Aceh: Slim Chance for Peace

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Indonesia's efforts to end the separatist rebellion in Aceh entered a new phase in April 2001 with the launching of a military offensive against the guerrillas of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). Three months later, the government passed a law conferring “special autonomy”, or limited self- government, on the province. This briefing paper charts recent events in Aceh, updating two ICG reports in 2001 which analysed these two strands of Indonesian policy: military force and the offer of autonomy.
Topic:: Government and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

965. Zimbabwe At The Crossroads: Transition Or Conflict?

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Despite broad international condemnation and a tremendous thirst among the people of Zimbabwe for change, the Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) government succeeded in systematically manipulating the March 2002 election process to ensure another six-year term for President Robert Mugabe. The strategic use of state violence and extra-legal electoral tinkering authorised by President Mugabe effectively thwarted the will of the people from being heard.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

966. Pakistan: The Dangers of Conventional Wisdom

Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: With the continuing military campaign in Afghanistan, the international community has fundamentally shifted its policies toward Pakistan. The government of President Pervez Musharraf has been repeatedly praised as a key ally in the war against terrorism, and the U.S. alone has indicated that it will offer Pakistan more than one billion dollars in assistance. This briefing explores some of the most important dynamics underpinning the international community's revised approach to Pakistan and suggests that much of the conventional wisdom relies on dangerously faulty assumptions with important implications for future policy and regional security.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and South Asia

967. Indonesia: The Search for Peace in Maluku

Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The fighting that broke out between Christians and Muslims in Ambon, the capital of Indonesia's Maluku province, on 19 January 1999 triggered a virtual civil war that soon spread to other parts of the province. At least 5,000 people (perhaps as many as 10,000) have been killed and close to 700,000 – almost one-third of the population of 2.1 million – became refugees. Peace has yet to be achieved although violence has declined sharply during the last year. Refugees are beginning to return to predominantly Muslim North Maluku (which was separated from the old Maluku province in September 1999) but tensions remain high in Ambon and surrounding islands that are the core of the new Maluku province.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Politics
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

968. The IMU and the Hizb-ut-Tahrir: Implications of the Afghanistan Campaign

Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001 and the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan have intensified the scrutiny of Islamist movements across Central Asia. Of such movements, two – the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami (“Party of Islamic Liberation”) – have been of greatest concern to the governments of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and to the broader international community.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan

969. God, Oil and Country: Changing the Logic of War in Sudan

Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Sudan's long civil war rages on, claiming a terrible toll of death and displacement .While the decades of destruction are too complex to trace back to a single source, several forces propel the war, principally disputes over religion , resources , governance and self-determination . Concentration of power in a small group of competing elites that has not granted the majority of Sudanese broader economic and political rights has only deepened the country's considerable geographic, religious cultural and ethnic divisions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Sudan and North Africa

970. All Bark and No Bite? The International Response to Zimbabwe's Crisis?

Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The 9-10 March 2002 presidential election is the decisive date for Zimbabwe's intensifying crisis. With political violence escalating, new repressive legislation has highlighted the government's efforts to clamp down on the media, the judicial system, civil society and the political opposition in order to retain power by any means. International action, not merely further expressions of concern, is needed before time runs out on the possibility of conducting the freer and fairer election that is the best chance to head off destabilisation that would inevitably cross the country's borders and affect all southern Africa.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Zimbabwe

971. Zimbabwe's Election: The Stakes for Southern Africa

Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Since the intensification of Zimbabwe's political, economic and humanitarian crisis following defeat of a government-sponsored constitution in a national referendum nearly two years ago, the International Crisis Group (ICG) has documented the escalation of state-sponsored violence and erosion of the rule of law. ICG has called for robust action by the international community, especially Zimbabwe's neighbours and partners in the regional Southern African Development Community (SADC). As the March presidential election draws nearer, and state violence, intimidation and rigging intensify, action by South Africa and its SADC partners becomes more urgent. Zimbabwe's neighbours have a major opportunity to respond more forcefully to the growing crisis at a Summit in Malawi on 13-14 January 2002 and its aftermath. This briefing paper updates the regional dimensions of the crisis, and analyses SADC's policy options, with a special emphasis on its most powerful member, South Africa.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: South Africa and Zimbabwe

972. Kosovo: A Strategy for Economic Development

Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Kosovo cannot have a stable future without sustainable economic development. This report considers the task of promoting such development. After surveying the present state of the economy, it assesses the international efforts so far to lay the groundwork for future prosperity. It also considers the prospects for the former socially owned sector, including plans for privatisation and prospects for restructuring and investment.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

973. Macedonia's Name: Why the Dispute Matters and How to Resolve It

Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 16 November 2001, Macedonia's parliament passed a set of constitutional amendments that were agreed in August, when Macedonian and Albanian minority leaders signed the Ohrid Framework Agreement. Later that day, President Trajkovski clarified the terms of an amnesty for Albanian rebels, in line with international requests.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Government, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

974. Bin Laden and the Balkans: the Politics of Anti-Terrorism

Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The global focus on Islamist extremist-inspired terrorism resulting from the 11 September atrocities has raised the question of the potential for such terrorist activity in, or emanating from, the Balkans.
Topic:: Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Balkans

975. Bosnia: Reshaping the International Machinery

Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: After six years and billions of dollars spent, peace implementation in Bosnia and Herzegovina remains far from complete. Reshaping (ërecalibratingí, in local jargon) the international community (IC) presence is vital if the peace process is to have a successful outcome.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia and Eastern Europe

976. Croatia: Facing Up To War Crimes

Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 8 October 2001, the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) confirmed an indictment charging Slobodan Milosevic, the former president of Serbia and of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), with crimes committed in Croatia. This indictment had been keenly awaited for years in Croatia, where a widespread perception of international indifference to Serb crimes perpetrated against Croats between 1991 and 1995 has been ably encouraged and manipulated by the right wing.
Topic:: Development, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Croatia

977. Wages of Sin: Confronting Bosnia's Republika Srpska

Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: By recognising Republika Srpska (RS) as a legitimate polity and constituent entity of the new Bosnia, the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement embraced a contradiction. For the RS was founded as a stepping stone to a ëGreater Serbiaí and forged in atrocities against ñ and mass expulsions of ñ non-Serbs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia and Eastern Europe

978. Serbia's Transition: Reforms Under Siege

Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The 3 August 2001 murder of former State Security (DB) official Momir Gavrilovic acted as a catalyst for the emergence of a long-hidden feud within Serbia's ruling DOS (Democratic Opposition of Serbia) coalition. Inflamed by Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica's closest advisers, the 'Gavrilovic Affair' has driven a wedge into DOS that could spell the end of the coalition in its present form. In so doing, Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) has been exposed more clearly than before as a conservative nationalist party intent on preserving certain elements of the Milosevic regime.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Serbia

979. Macedonia: Filling the Security Vacuum

Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The war option has, for the moment, been checked, but Macedonia is very far from being at peace. Neither the agreement signed on 13 August 2001 2 by the four Macedonian governing parties – two ethnic Macedonian, two ethnic Albanian – nor the subsequent limited NATO deployment, nor the first-stage approval of necessary constitutional amendments by the Macedonian parliament on 6 September have yet given anyone confidence that peace is sustainable. The parliamentary vote, for example, came only after an acrimonious debate in which markers were laid down that ultimate approval of the legislative package could not be taken for granted.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

980. Albania's Parliamentary Elections 2001

Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Socialist Party's decision on 21 August to nominate Ilir Meta for another term as Prime Minister closed out the longest election in Albania's turbulent post-communist history. Voting for the parliament was held, extraordinarily, in four rounds on 24 June 2001, and 8, 22 and 29 July due to accusations of electoral fraud in various forms. It was, nevertheless, peaceful and produced a decisive victory for the ruling Socialist Party (SP). The Socialists, who have held power since 1997, won 73 seats in the 140-member legislature, against 46 for the Union for Victory (UfV) coalition, led by the Democratic Party (DP). The remaining 21 seats were allocated among five small parties, each of which gained the necessary 2.5 per cent of votes, and two independent candidates who won direct mandates. The results gave the Socialists a sufficient majority to form a new government and, crucially, with the aid of likely allies, to elect a new president in 2002 when the term of the incumbent, Rexhep Meidani, expires. Formation of that government, however, was delayed further weeks until the SP's General Steering Committee gave Meta an overwhelming victory in his bitter personal battle with the party chairman, Fatos Nano, who backed his own man for the prime minister's chair.
Topic:: Democratization, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Albania

981. Macedonia: War on Hold

Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Macedonian and Albanian political leaders signed a political agreement – hailed by its Western midwives as a peace agreement – on 13 August 2001. NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson and the European Union's High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, flew to Skopje to attend the signing ceremony. But the strange context of the signing showed just how implausible it is that, without further extraordinary efforts, the agreement will actually provide a workable way to keep multiethnic Macedonia out of civil war. Details of the agreement had been hammered out by 8 August in Ohrid, a resort town chosen for the negotiations because it was some distance away from the latest fighting. Signature was delayed five days, however, while Macedonian government troops and ethnic Albanian rebels engaged in the deadliest series yet of tit-for-tat retaliations. Terms of the agreement were withheld from the public lest they provoke violent responses from hardliners on both sides. The ceremony, when it finally occurred, was carried out almost furtively, in a small room of the President's residence, without live television.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

982. Peace in Presevo: Quick Fix or Long Term Solution?

Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The past decade in the Western Balkans has seen very few peacefully negotiated transfers of territorial control. The most recent example ñ albeit one not involving any change of sovereignty - was also the only one achieved by NATOís direct mediation. In May 2001, the Presevo Valley was brought back under Serbian government control, ending an ethnic Albanian insurgency that had lasted some seventeen months.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Balkans

983. Bosnia's Precarious Economy: Still not Open for Business

Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Bosnia's economic reality is still bleak. After more than five years and five billion dollars of Dayton implementation, the country seems only at the beginning of an economic transition that should have begun in 1996.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: Bosnia and Eastern Europe

984. Montenegro: Resolving the Independence Deadlock

Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Ten months after the fall of Slobodan Miloöević , considerable progress has been made in establishing democratic governance in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and reintegrating the country into the international community. Yet the future of the federation itself remains in doubt. The FRY is a hollow edifice whose institutions hardly function except as an address for the international community. Montenegroís authorities no longer recognise the legitimacy of the federal government. All sides agree that the status quo is unsustainable and that Montenegro and Serbia must find a new basis for their relationship.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

985. Macedonia: Still Sliding

Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Despite the ceasefire announced on 26 July 2001, and the promised resumption of political talks in Tetovo on 27 July, Macedonia is still locked in crisis and threatened by war. Neither ethnic Macedonian nor ethnic Albanian leaders have been converted to belief in a 'civic' settlement that would strengthen democracy by improving minority conditions, without weakening the integrity of the state. Ethnic Macedonians fear that civic reforms will transform the country exclusively to its, and their, detriment, while ethnic Albanians are sceptical that any reforms can really be made to work in their favour. Nor have separatists from both sides, within the country and in the diaspora, given up their conviction that security for their communities can only be achieved by demarcating – and hence competing for – ethnically “pure” territory.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

986. Milosevic in the Hague: What it Means for Yugoslavia and the Region

Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 28 June 2001, St Vitus's Day – an anniversary with enormous resonance in Yugoslavia – Serbian government transferred former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic to The Hague. By this bold political move, the government demonstrated in the clearest way its will to break with the past. With the timing driven by the international donors conference scheduled for 29 June, the transfer also confirmed the effectiveness of conditioning economic assistance to Yugoslavia on concrete political progress.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

987. EU CRISIS RESPONSE CAPABILITY: Institutions and Processes for Conflict Prevention and Management

Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: It is less than a decade since the European Union (EU) was formally established and set itself the ambitious project of developing a common foreign and security policy. Less than four years have passed since the signing of the Amsterdam Treaty which provided key institutional foundations of that policy. And it is less than eighteen months since many of the bodies responsible for implementing the most difficult aspects – those related directly to crisis response – have been created. This process may be well appreciated by those closely involved in it, but it is opaque and puzzling to many others. This report aims to clarify the process for those outside it. It describes the roles of the new bodies, their relationship to previously existing ones, and the basic fit between their functions and the goals of conflict prevention and management. This report is largely descriptive, but its analysis of the institutions and processes does provide a foundation for some recommendations for improvement as the EU carries its work forward.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Europe

988. The European Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO): Crisis Response in the Grey Lane

Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: This briefing paper examines in broad terms likely directions in the policy of the European Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO) in the next two to three years, with special reference to its position in the development of European Union (EU) crisis response structures and processes. Its particular focus is on how ECHO has responded to the "grey area" dilemmas: whether and how to separate emergency humanitarian assistance from longer term development assistance, and from "political" projects generally. Section I provides an overview of ECHO's structure and funding; Section II describes how the grey area has been addressed to date; Section III discusses how the issue arises again in the context of the development of the EU's new conflict prevention and management ambitions; while the concluding Section IV draws upon recent experience in Macedonia to support the case for a more pragmatic approach to ECHO's role.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Europe and Macedonia

989. HIV/AIDS as a Security Issue

Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: It is projected that, at current rates, more than 100 million people worldwide will have been infected with HIV by 2005. Where the epidemic has hit hardest, Sub-Saharan Africa, experts believe AIDS will eventually kill one in four adults. Seven countries already have adult prevalence rates above 20 per cent of the population.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, and Southeast Asia

990. Macedonia: The Last Chance for Peace

Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In the past three months, since mid March 2001, Macedonia has stared into the abyss of inter-ethnic conflict, pulled away from the precipice, squandered opportunities for a political settlement, then returned as if sleepwalking to the brink of civil war. The downward spiral was interrupted on 11 June, when the Macedonian government and the ethnic Albanian rebels agreed to a ceasefire. The following day the government abruptly endorsed a peace plan proposed by President Boris Trajkovski. For their part, the NLA guerrillas expressed a readiness to halt their insurgency but want to see concrete steps towards improving Albanian rights.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and War
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

991. A Fair Exchange: Aid to Yugoslavia for Regional Stability

Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The donors' conference for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), planned for 29 June 2001 in Brussels, will set the pattern of international economic assistance to Belgrade for the next year or more. In return for substantial donor support, the international community should require the FRY to undertake a number of specific steps that are essential for increasing regional stability.
Topic:: Debt, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Brussels

992. No Early Exit: NATO's Continuing Challenge in Bosnia

Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: NATO-led troops have played a vital part in securing the peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) since their arrival in December 1995. Although authorised by the Dayton Peace Agreement to assist civilian implementation, the military is not obliged to do so. Yet, by evolving in response to developments, the mission has contributed - albeit belatedly and inconsistently - to international civilian efforts to construct a viable state. This shift was reflected in the change of the mission's name in 1996 from Implementation Force (IFOR) to Stabilisation Force (SFOR).
Topic:: Security, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

993. Albania: The State of the Nation 2001

Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: This report describes the current situation in Albania, paying particular attention to relations with the country's Balkan neighbours, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia and Greece. The recent upsurge in fighting in the Presevo Valley of southern Serbia and in Macedonia has damaged the reputation of all Albanians in the region and has once more raised the spectre of a Greater Albania. Consequently, the Albanian government has been at pains to stress that it does not support the ethnic Albanian insurgents and wishes to see the territorial integrity of Macedonia upheld. To this end, Tirana has requested NATO's assistance to secure the Albania-Macedonia border, and has called for a solution to the crisis through dialogue.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Greece, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, and Tirana

994. The Macedonian Question: Reform or Rebellion

Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In late February, violence flared in Albanian-inhabited villages in northern Macedonia close to the border with Kosovo. In mid March, the violence spread to Macedonia's second largest city, Tetovo. The rebels claimed to be defending themselves against Macedonian security forces, i.e. their own government, and to be fighting for Albanian national rights in Macedonia. The coalition government in Skopje promptly raised the alarm, blaming Kosovo Albanian elements for exporting rebellion to Macedonia, and calling for the NATO-led forces in Kosovo (KFOR) to seal the border. The rebels claimed they were local Albanians, numbering 2,000 and recruiting dozens of volunteers from the surrounding area every day.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Albania

995. Montenegro: Time to Decide. A Pre-election Briefing

Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The extraordinary parliamentary election to be held in Montenegro on 22 April 2001 is focused on the single issue of the republics future status, whether in a continued federal union with Serbia, or as an independent state. The election was called following the break-up of Montenegros ruling coalition at the end of December 2000 over this very question. Following the ouster of Slobodan Miloević as president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) in October 2000, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanović opted to formalise the republics break with the FRY, which in practice had already ceased to function in any meaningful sense. On 28 December 2000 two of the parties in the ruling .For a Better Life. (D.B) coalition, Djukanovićs Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and the Social Democratic party (SDP), adopted a new Platform on relations with Serbia, which envisaged a loose association of fully independent states. The anti independence Peoples Party (NS) promptly left the DŽB coalition, thus precipitating the forthcoming election.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

996. After Milosevic: A Practical Agenda for Lasting Balkans Peace

Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Slobodan Milosevic has gone, but he has left behind him in the Balkans a bitter legacy of death, destruction and distrust. His democratic overthrow was a watershed, but the potential for renewed conflict in the region remains dangerously high, and it is vital that there be forward - looking and comprehensive action by the international community to address the continuing sources of underlying tension.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Balkans

997. Montenegro: Settling for Independence?

Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: International relief at the fall of the regime of Slobodan Miloević has been marred by dismay at the prospect of a breakaway from the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) by Montenegro. As long as Milo.ević was in power, the international community supported Montenegro.s moves to distance itself from Belgrade. With Milo.ević gone, it was widely expected that Belgrade and Podgorica could patched up their relationship, and find a satisfactory accommodation within the framework of the FRY. Montenegrin President Milo Djukanović.s decision to opt instead for independence has caused international consternation.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Montenegro

998. Turning Strife to Advantage: A Blueprint to Integrate the Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The current attempts by the leadership of the Croat Democratic Union (HDZ) of Bosnia and Herzegovina to secede from the legal and constitutional structures of the state are the most serious challenge yet to the post-war order established by the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

999. Religion in Kosovo

Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: This report seeks to describe the current position of the three major religious communities in Kosovo. In part, it aims to clarify misconceptions about the involvement of religion in the Kosovo conflict. It also proposes some areas where religion might serve as a means to encourage reconciliation among the peoples of Kosovo.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Religion, and Ethnic Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

1000. Bosnia's November Elections: Dayton Stumbles

Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Despite five years and five billion US dollars of international community investment in Bosnia, the 11 November Bosnian elections demonstrated once again that international engagement has failed to provide a sustainable basis for a functioning state, capable of surviving an international withdrawal.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, Bosnia, and Eastern Europe

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS