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2. Stop Fighting Blind: Better Use-of-Force Oversight in the U.S. Congress
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The U.S. constitution divides war powers between the executive and legislative branches, so as to ensure that decisions about using force are collective and deliberative. Lawmakers’ role has receded, however, particularly in recent decades. Small steps would help them start reclaiming their prerogatives.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Legislation, Civil-Military Relations, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
3. A Remedy for El Salvador’s Prison Fever
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Following a spate of murders, the Salvadoran government ordered mass roundups of suspected criminal gang members, throwing more than 53,000 in jail. The clampdown is popular but unsustainable. Authorities should develop a path out of gang life that members can choose.
- Topic:
- Crime, Governance, Police, and Gangs
- Political Geography:
- Central America, North America, and El Salvador
4. Trapped in Conflict: Reforming Military Strategy to Save Lives in Colombia
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Colombia’s new president, Gustavo Petro, says he will work to bring “total peace” to the countryside, including areas roiled by violent competition among criminal and other armed groups. This task will require significant changes to military approaches devised for fighting the insurgencies of the past.
- Topic:
- Crime, Governance, Leadership, Conflict, Peace, and Gangs
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
5. A New Era of Sectarian Violence in Pakistan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A local jihadist group and a violent protest movement are driving renewed sectarian strife in Pakistan. To prevent a slide back into violence, Islamabad should ensure those inciting or perpetrating violent acts are prosecuted while denying hardliners the civic space to propagate their hatred.
- Topic:
- Religion, Protests, Violence, and Jihad
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Asia
6. Realigning European Policy toward Palestine with Ground Realities
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Events in 2021 – particularly the Gaza war – put in sharp relief how much Europe’s policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict needs a refresh. The European Union and its member states should use the levers they have to push for their stated goal of a peaceful resolution.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Peace, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
7. Afghanistan’s Security Challenges under the Taliban
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- One year after the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, fighting has decreased considerably. Yet serious security problems remain, not least the foreign militants still in the country. External actors should press the new authorities to fulfil their commitments and avoid any steps that could reignite large-scale violence.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Taliban, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
8. Hard Times in a Safe Haven: Protecting Venezuelan Migrants in Colombia
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In recent years, Venezuelans have streamed into Colombia looking for work and respite from their country’s socio-economic meltdown. But dangers also await them, including the clutches of organised crime. Bogotá’s change of government is a chance to reset policy to keep the migrants safer.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Socioeconomics, and Migrants
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Venezuela
9. Containing a Resilient ISIS in Central and North-eastern Syria
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Its self-declared caliphate is gone, but ISIS continues to stage attacks and intimidate the public in much of its former domain. The forces fighting the group need to hinder the militants’ movement between Syria’s regions – and, above all, to avoid debilitating conflicts with one another.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, ISIS, War on Terror, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
10. Managing the Risks of Instability in the Western Balkans
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Western Balkan six – five of the former Yugoslavia’s successor states plus Albania – remain outside the EU as war wounds fester and reform efforts stumble. Brussels should find means short of promising accession to help guide these countries back onto the right track.
- Topic:
- Political stability, State Building, Strategic Stability, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans
11. Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The war with Al-Shabaab’s Islamist insurgency has dragged on for fifteen years. As it reviews its options, Somalia’s new government should look into what room there might be for dialogue with the group. The alternative is more fighting with no end in sight.
- Topic:
- Insurgency, Governance, Peace, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
12. Avoiding a Return to War in Myanmar’s Rakhine State
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- An unofficial ceasefire has kept Rakhine State quiet compared to much of Myanmar following the 2021 coup. But friction is building between the military and ethnic Rakhine fighters. The parties should strike a formal deal to avert a return to war.
- Topic:
- War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Myanmar
13. Iraq: Stabilising the Contested District of Sinjar
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sinjar has yet to recover from the ravages of 2014, when ISIS subjected the population to unrelenting terror. Thousands remain displaced. To persuade them to return, the Iraqi federal and Kurdish regional governments will need help from the current residents in improving governance and security.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
14. Risky Competition: Strengthening U.S.-China Crisis Management
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As their strategic rivalry grows, China and the U.S. are increasingly operating in close proximity in the Asia Pacific. An accident or misinterpreted signal could set off a wider confrontation. The danger level is low, but dialogue is needed to dial it down further.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Crisis Management, Rivalry, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
15. Syria: Ruling over Aleppo’s Ruins
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Aleppo was devastated by bombing and shelling during the Syrian war. It remains unsafe, with residents subject to shakedowns by the regime’s security forces and various militias. Damascus and its outside backers should curb this predation as a crucial first step toward the city’s recovery.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
16. Truce Test: The Huthis and Yemen’s War of Narratives
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Adversaries of Yemen’s Huthi rebels say they will never negotiate in good faith. Others think they might, given the right mix of incentives. With a nationwide truce in place, diplomats should give the latter hypothesis a shot.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Peace, Strategic Interests, and Narrative
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Persian Gulf
17. Managing Vigilantism in Nigeria: A Near-term Necessity
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Vigilantes have become so important to protecting the Nigerian public that for now the country has little choice but to rely on them. Yet there are dangers. Authorities should better regulate these groups, while working to restore citizens’ trust in the police.
- Topic:
- Governance, Conflict, Police, and Vigilantism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
18. Saïed’s Tunisia: Promoting Dialogue and Fixing the Economy to Ease Tensions
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Political tensions fuelled by President Saïed’s power grab and subsequent policies risk sending a crisis-ridden Tunisia over the edge. Saïed should organise a national dialogue and return to a negotiated constitutional order. In response, international partners should offer new economic perspectives for the country.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Peace, Strategic Interests, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Tunisia
19. Addressing Islamist Militancy in the Southern Philippines
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The transition to self-rule in the Bangsamoro, the majority-Muslim region in the southern Philippines, is proceeding apace. Militants outside the associated peace process are losing strength but could recover. Regional and national authorities should do all in their power to keep that from happening.
- Topic:
- Religion, Governance, Conflict, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Philippines and Oceania
20. Rebels, Victims, Peacebuilders: Women in Cameroon’s Anglophone Conflict
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Years of fighting between separatists and the state in Cameroon have hit women hard, uprooting hundreds of thousands. The government and external partners should step up aid for the displaced. Donors should start planning now for including women activists in future peace talks.
- Topic:
- Women, Conflict, Peace, Victims, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
21. Southern Philippines: Fostering an Inclusive Bangsamoro
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The peace process in the Bangsamoro, the newly autonomous region in the southern Philippines, is making progress. But several groups, including minorities and women, could be better represented. Donors should join hands with interim authorities to ensure that self-rule delivers for all the area’s residents.
- Topic:
- Diversity, Peace, Identity, Inclusion, and Self-Rule
- Political Geography:
- Philippines and Oceania
22. Overcoming the Global Rift on Venezuela
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The political standoff in Venezuela continues as the country sinks deeper into socio-economic distress. Renewed talks between government and opposition – now on hold – give external partners of both sides an opening to push harder for resolution of the impasse. They should seize the opportunity.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, Strategic Interests, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
23. Women and Peacebuilding in Pakistan’s North West
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Women in north-western Pakistan have long been at the forefront of activism to bring peace and security to the region. More work is needed on legal, political and economic reforms for their protection and to help them make the greatest contribution possible to civic life.
- Topic:
- Women, Peace, Peacebuilding, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Asia
24. Pakistan’s Hard Policy Choices in Afghanistan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Islamabad must tread carefully with its long-time Taliban allies back in power in Kabul. Pitfalls lie ahead for Pakistan’s domestic security and its foreign relations. The Pakistani government should encourage Afghanistan’s new authorities down the path of compromise with international demands regarding rights and counter-terrorism.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, and Asia
25. Brokering a Ceasefire in Yemen’s Economic Conflict
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Alongside the battles over territory, the parties to Yemen’s war are embroiled in fights for control of key parts of the country’s economy. The latter struggle causes great civilian suffering. The new UN envoy should make it a central task to achieve an economic truce.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations, Conflict, Peace, and Ceasefire
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Persian Gulf
26. The Iran Nuclear Deal at Six: Now or Never
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After all is said and done, the Iran nuclear deal struck in 2015 remains the best way to achieve the West’s non-proliferation goals and the sanctions relief that Tehran seeks. The parties must not squander what is likely their last chance to save the accord.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
27. Myanmar’s Coup Shakes Up Its Ethnic Conflicts
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The numerous ethnic armed groups fighting Myanmar’s regime have taken different tacks after the 2021 coup. Some are aiding the parallel government; others are not. With civil strife set to continue for some time, donors should concentrate on mitigating war’s effects on the population.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Coup
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Myanmar
28. Mali: Enabling Dialogue with the Jihadist Coalition JNIM
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Authorities in Mali seem to be considering negotiations with Jamaat Nusratul Islam wal-Muslimin, the country’s largest Islamist insurgency. Pursuing talks will be a tall order, given the stakes and the group’s al-Qaeda connection. Both the government and the militants should begin with incremental steps.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Negotiation, Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mali
29. Vietnam Tacks Between Cooperation and Struggle in the South China Sea
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Together with the Philippines, Vietnam is on the front line of maritime disputes with China. The risk of armed confrontation is low but growing. Hanoi should redouble efforts to build confidence, starting with less sensitive issues, and to establish an effective Code of Conduct.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Maritime Commerce, Maritime, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Vietnam, Philippines, South China Sea, and Oceania
30. Beyond Emergency Relief: Averting Afghanistan’s Humanitarian Catastrophe
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- International donors cut off all but emergency aid to Afghanistan after the Taliban’s takeover in August. Months later, the state is collapsing and a humanitarian disaster is looming. Donors should work with the state to restore basic public services and mitigate the population’s suffering.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Leadership, Fragile States, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
31. A Fight by Other Means: Keeping the Peace with Colombia’s FARC
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Colombia’s 2016 peace deal was a landmark achievement, convincing the FARC guerrillas to disarm and enter civilian life. Yet much remains to be done to show insurgents that they can redress their grievances through ordinary politics. The country’s leaders should recommit to finishing the job.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
32. Competing Visions of International Order in the South China Sea
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The disputes in the South China Sea are fundamentally about claims of sovereignty, the broadest of which are staked by Beijing. The Chinese-U.S. rivalry, meanwhile, loads the dissension with geopolitical significance. Both major powers stand to gain by accepting the constraints of international law.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Maritime Commerce, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and South China Sea
33. Syria: Shoring Up Raqqa’s Shaky Recovery
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After suffering grievously under ISIS, and during the battles to defeat it, Raqqa is being rebuilt. The calm is tenuous, however. The U.S. and partners should work toward long-term stability in Syria’s north east, through investment and talks about sustainable governance and security arrangements.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, ISIS, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
34. A Broken Canopy: Deforestation and Conflict in Colombia
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Colombia’s vast forest is fast receding, partly because guerrillas and criminals are clearing land for farming, ranching and other pursuits. These unregulated activities are causing both dire environmental harm and deadly conflict. Bogotá should take urgent steps to halt the damage.
- Topic:
- Environment, Regulation, Farming, Ranching, and Deforestation
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
35. Managing Lebanon’s Compounding Crises
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Lebanon is suffering economic meltdown while its politicians dither. Reform – and fiscal relief – is unlikely before 2022 elections. While pushing for timely polls, international partners should send humanitarian assistance to ease the public’s pain, keep key infrastructure running and avert security breakdowns.
- Topic:
- Economics, Infrastructure, Humanitarian Crisis, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
36. Relaunching Negotiations over Western Sahara
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The fighting in Western Sahara, which broke out again in November 2020, remains of low intensity. Yet outside powers would be wrong to assume that it will not escalate. With U.S. support, the new UN envoy should pursue confidence-building measures that could facilitate negotiations.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, United Nations, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahara
37. Oil or Nothing: Dealing with South Sudan’s Bleeding Finances
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Upon South Sudan’s independence in 2011, many hoped the country’s oil wealth would help build the state and lift citizens out of poverty. Instead, politicians have shunted these revenues toward patronage and personal enrichment, feeding internal conflict. Transparency and accountability are badly needed.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Fossil Fuels
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
38. Overkill: Reforming the Legal Basis for the U.S. War on Terror
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. Congress passed a use of force authorisation that successive presidents have used to expand military action ever further. As part of our series The Legacy of 9/11 and the “War on Terror”, we argue that Washington should enact a new statute that promotes transparency and narrows the war’s scope
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Counter-terrorism, and War on Terror
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
39. A Time for Talks: Toward Dialogue between the Gulf Arab States and Ira
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Gulf Arab states have perceived threats from Iran since the 1979 revolution. Frictions have lessened of late, offering an important opportunity. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi should keep engaging Tehran with an eye to initiating the broadest possible talks on regional peace and security.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Gulf Nations
40. Beyond Business as Usual in Israel-Palestine
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The latest escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict brought important shifts in the status quo, underscoring the necessity of a political settlement. A peace based on equal respect for both peoples’ rights will take time, however. Steps to lower the temperature are urgent in the interim.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Peace, and Settlements
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
41. Iran: The Riddle of Raisi
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Iran has a new president, consolidating the hardliners’ control over the centres of power. What will he do about the country’s numerous crises? One answer is clear: the 2015 nuclear deal’s fate remains the most pressing issue for Tehran and its foreign interlocutors.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Leadership, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
42. Iraq’s Tishreen Uprising: From Barricades to Ballot Box
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The huge demonstrations that rocked Iraqi cities two years ago reverberate still, with the main grievances unaddressed. Protests could arise anew at any time, risking another lethal crackdown. The government should hold those who harmed protesters accountable and work to ensure clean elections in October.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, State Violence, Repression, and Police
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
43. The Pandemic Strikes: Responding to Colombia’s Mass Protests
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In Colombia’s history of protest, the 2021 mobilisations against inequality and police brutality stand out for their breadth and intensity. Unrest has quieted for now but could soon return. The government should urgently reform the security sector while working to narrow the country’s socio-economic chasms.
- Topic:
- Inequality, State Violence, Protests, and Police Brutality
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
44. Stemming the Insurrection in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Deadly conflict in Mozambique’s ruby- and natural gas-rich northernmost coastal province feeds on a mix of colonial-era tensions, inequality and Islamist militancy. To tame the insurrection, Maputo needs to use force, with bespoke assistance from outside partners, and to carefully address underlying grievances.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Inequality, and Insurrection
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
45. Turkey-Greece: From Maritime Brinkmanship to Dialogue
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In mid-2020, Turkey and Greece put their Mediterranean fleets on high alert, dramatically raising tensions in their long-running dispute over air, water, rock and now seabed gas deposits as well. Talks have been frustrating but remain the best way to contain the risk of conflict.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Greece
46. The Risks of a Rigged Election in Nicaragua
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With Nicaraguans heading to the polls in November, the government is already trying to engineer the outcome in its favour. An unfair ballot could spark unrest and a violent crackdown. External actors should push for reforms and dialogue with the opposition while eschewing counterproductive sanctions.
- Topic:
- Elections, Voting, Rigged Elections, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- Central America, Nicaragua, and North America
47. How to Spend It: New EU Funding for African Peace and Security
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- New financial structures will soon allow the EU to fund African military operations – including the supply of lethal weaponry – directly, instead of through the African Union. To avoid aggravating conflicts, Brussels should undertake robust risk assessments, constantly monitor its assistance, insist that recipient countries subordinate military efforts to political strategies and preserve African Union oversight.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Peace, and Africa Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
48. The Iran Nuclear Deal at Five: A Revival?
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The 2015 nuclear deal enters 2021 clinging to life, having survived the Trump administration’s withdrawal and Iran’s breaches of its commitments. When the Biden administration takes office, Washington and Tehran should move quickly and in parallel to revive the agreement on its original terms.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
49. Relaunching the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Thirteen years after Kosovo broke away from Serbia, the two countries remain mired in mutual non-recognition, with deleterious effects on both. The parties need to move past technicalities to tackle the main issues at stake: Pristina’s independence and Belgrade’s influence over Kosovo’s Serbian minority.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Minorities, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
50. A Course Correction for the Sahel Stabilisation Strategy
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since 2013, when it sent troops to Mali, France has led international efforts to root out Islamist militancy from the Sahel. Yet the jihadist threat has grown. Paris and its partners should reorient their military-centred approach toward helping improve governance in the region.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Violent Extremism, Political stability, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
51. Toward a Viable Future for South Sudan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Ten years after independence, South Sudan is faring poorly, beleaguered by political and socio-economic ills. The civil war’s two main antagonists have an uneasy peace, but others fight on. The country needs a reset rooted in power sharing and devolution of authority from the centre.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Political Power Sharing, Leadership, State Building, Independence, and Power
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
52. The Exile Effect: Venezuela’s Overseas Opposition and Social Media
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A study of social media content shows that Venezuelan opposition figures often take harder anti-government lines if they flee abroad. Exiles’ voices are important, but those trying to end Venezuela’s crisis should listen to others as well, recalling that compromise offers the only peaceful exit.
- Topic:
- Mass Media, Leadership, Social Media, Conflict, Peace, and Opposition
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
53. Deeply Rooted: Coca Eradication and Violence in Colombia
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Coca gives Colombian small farmers a stable livelihood but also endangers their lives, as criminals battle over the drug trade and authorities try to shut it down. Bogotá and Washington should abandon their heavy-handed elimination efforts and help growers find alternatives to the hardy plant.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Violence, Rural, Illegal Trade, Organized Crime, and Farming
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, North America, and United States of America
54. The Case for More Inclusive – and More Effective – Peacemaking in Yemen
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- International efforts to end the war in Yemen are stuck in an outdated two-party paradigm, seeking to mediate between the Huthis and their foes. As it pushes for renewed talks, the UN should broaden the scope to include Yemeni women’s and other civil society groups.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, International Cooperation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Persian Gulf
55. Southern Philippines: Keeping Normalisation on Track in the Bangsamoro
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Peace in the Philippines’ majority-Muslim region requires disarming 40,000 ex-rebels and encouraging economic development where they live. But progress toward these goals, together called “normalisation”, is sputtering. Both Manila and the former insurgents need to hit the accelerator lest the process lose momentum entirely.
- Topic:
- Religion, Minorities, Ethnicity, Conflict, Peace, Economic Development, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Philippines, and Oceania
56. Ending Nigeria’s Herder-Farmer Crisis: The Livestock Reform Plan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Nigeria’s latest plan for curbing herder-farmer conflict is facing obstacles, including staff and funding shortages as well as political opposition. If this initiative fails, there could be more rural violence. Abuja should work with donors to raise both money and awareness of the scheme’s benefits.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Violence, Rural, and Farming
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
57. Myanmar’s Military Struggles to Control the Virtual Battlefield
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In order to silence opposition to the February coup, Myanmar’s military is vigorously policing the internet as it quashes street protests. Outside powers and technology companies should endeavour to keep the online space free of interference and deny the junta tools of virtual repression.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Democracy, Protests, Coup, Military Government, and Oppression
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Burma, and Myanmar
58. The Risks of a Rigged Election in Nicaragua
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With Nicaraguans heading to the polls in November, the government is already trying to engineer the outcome in its favour. An unfair ballot could spark unrest and a violent crackdown. External actors should push for reforms and dialogue with the opposition while eschewing counterproductive sanctions.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Elections, Voting, Oppression, Election Interference, and Rigged Elections
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Central America, Nicaragua, and North America
59. Libya Turns the Page
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Libyan politicians have moved with salutary speed in 2021 to reunify their divided country. With UN help, the new government should hasten to clear two last hurdles: establishing a legal framework for elections and clarity about who holds supreme command of the armed forces.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, United Nations, Military Strategy, Elections, State Building, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, North Africa, and MENA
60. Turkey-Greece: From Maritime Brinkmanship to Dialogue
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In mid-2020, Turkey and Greece put their Mediterranean fleets on high alert, dramatically raising tensions in their long-running dispute over air, water, rock and now seabed gas deposits as well. Talks have been frustrating but remain the best way to contain the risk of conflict.
- Topic:
- Maritime Commerce, Territorial Disputes, Water, Maritime, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean
61. Electoral Violence and Illicit Influence in Mexico’s Hot Land
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Campaign season in Mexico has seen a rash of murders, as organised crime seeks to cement its influence no matter which parties win. The government needs to keep trying to break bonds between criminals and authorities, beginning with efforts tailored to the country’s hardest-hit areas.
- Topic:
- Elections, Violence, Election Interference, and Organized Crime
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
62. Post-war Prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh left many issues unresolved and the front lines volatile. The parties should establish a formal communication channel to address urgent post-war problems, Russian peacekeepers need a clearer mandate and aid agencies must be granted access to the conflict zone.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Caucasus
63. Stemming the Insurrection in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Deadly conflict in Mozambique’s ruby- and natural gas-rich northernmost coastal province feeds on a mix of colonial-era tensions, inequality and Islamist militancy. To tame the insurrection, Maputo needs to use force, with bespoke assistance from outside partners, and to carefully address underlying grievances.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Inequality, Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis, and Insurrection
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
64. The Pandemic Strikes: Responding to Colombia’s Mass Protests
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In Colombia’s history of protest, the 2021 mobilisations against inequality and police brutality stand out for their breadth and intensity. Unrest has quieted for now but could soon return. The government should urgently reform the security sector while working to narrow the country’s socio-economic chasms.
- Topic:
- Governance, Inequality, Protests, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Social Order
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
65. Iraq’s Tishreen Uprising: From Barricades to Ballot Box
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The huge demonstrations that rocked Iraqi cities two years ago reverberate still, with the main grievances unaddressed. Protests could arise anew at any time, risking another lethal crackdown. The government should hold those who harmed protesters accountable and work to ensure clean elections in October.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Conflict, Protests, and Oppression
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
66. Iran: The Riddle of Raisi
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Iran has a new president, consolidating the hardliners’ control over the centres of power. What will he do about the country’s numerous crises? One answer is clear: the 2015 nuclear deal’s fate remains the most pressing issue for Tehran and its foreign interlocutors.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
67. Beyond Business as Usual in Israel-Palestine
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The latest escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict brought important shifts in the status quo, underscoring the necessity of a political settlement. A peace based on equal respect for both peoples’ rights will take time, however. Steps to lower the temperature are urgent in the interim.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Peace, and Settlements
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
68. A Time for Talks: Toward Dialogue between the Gulf Arab States and Iran
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Gulf Arab states have perceived threats from Iran since the 1979 revolution. Frictions have lessened of late, offering an important opportunity. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi should keep engaging Tehran with an eye to initiating the broadest possible talks on regional peace and security.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
69. Overkill: Reforming the Legal Basis for the U.S. War on Terror
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. Congress passed a use of force authorisation that successive presidents have used to expand military action ever further. As part of our series The Legacy of 9/11 and the “War on Terror”, we argue that Washington should enact a new statute that promotes transparency and narrows the war’s scope.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, War on Terror, and Civil-Military Relations
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
70. Oil or Nothing: Dealing with South Sudan’s Bleeding Finances
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Upon South Sudan’s independence in 2011, many hoped the country’s oil wealth would help build the state and lift citizens out of poverty. Instead, politicians have shunted these revenues toward patronage and personal enrichment, feeding internal conflict. Transparency and accountability are badly needed.
- Topic:
- Oil, Poverty, Natural Resources, Accountability, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
71. Relaunching Negotiations over Western Sahara
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The fighting in Western Sahara, which broke out again in November 2020, remains of low intensity. Yet outside powers would be wrong to assume that it will not escalate. With U.S. support, the new UN envoy should pursue confidence-building measures that could facilitate negotiations.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa
72. Managing Lebanon’s Compounding Crises
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Lebanon is suffering economic meltdown while its politicians dither. Reform – and fiscal relief – is unlikely before 2022 elections. While pushing for timely polls, international partners should send humanitarian assistance to ease the public’s pain, keep key infrastructure running and avert security breakdowns.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Infrastructure, Reform, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
73. A Broken Canopy: Deforestation and Conflict in Colombia
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Colombia’s vast forest is fast receding, partly because guerrillas and criminals are clearing land for farming, ranching and other pursuits. These unregulated activities are causing both dire environmental harm and deadly conflict. Bogotá should take urgent steps to halt the damage.
- Topic:
- Environment, Conflict, Farming, and Deforestation
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
74. Syria: Shoring Up Raqqa’s Shaky Recovery
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After suffering grievously under ISIS, and during the battles to defeat it, Raqqa is being rebuilt. The calm is tenuous, however. The U.S. and partners should work toward long-term stability in Syria’s north east, through investment and talks about sustainable governance and security arrangements.
- Topic:
- Economics, Governance, Recovery, Sustainability, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
75. Competing Visions of International Order in the South China Sea
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The disputes in the South China Sea are fundamentally about claims of sovereignty, the broadest of which are staked by Beijing. The Chinese-U.S. rivalry, meanwhile, loads the dissension with geopolitical significance. Both major powers stand to gain by accepting the constraints of international law.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, Maritime, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
76. A Fight by Other Means: Keeping the Peace with Colombia’s FARC
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Colombia’s 2016 peace deal was a landmark achievement, convincing the FARC guerrillas to disarm and enter civilian life. Yet much remains to be done to show insurgents that they can redress their grievances through ordinary politics. The country’s leaders should recommit to finishing the job.
- Topic:
- Security, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
77. The Philippines’ Dilemma: How to Manage Tensions in the South China Sea
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The maritime dispute between China and the Philippines is simmering against the backdrop of strategic competition between Beijing and Washington. To keep tensions below boiling point, Manila should push for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea as well as greater regional cooperation.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Philippines
78. Beyond Emergency Relief: Averting Afghanistan’s Humanitarian Catastrophe
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- International donors cut off all but emergency aid to Afghanistan after the Taliban’s takeover in August. Months later, the state is collapsing and a humanitarian disaster is looming. Donors should work with the state to restore basic public services and mitigate the population’s suffering.
- Topic:
- Disaster Relief, Infrastructure, Governance, Humanitarian Crisis, and Public Service
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
79. Vietnam Tacks Between Cooperation and Struggle in the South China Sea
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Together with the Philippines, Vietnam is on the front line of maritime disputes with China. The risk of armed confrontation is low but growing. Hanoi should redouble efforts to build confidence, starting with less sensitive issues, and to establish an effective Code of Conduct.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, Maritime, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Vietnam
80. Mali: Enabling Dialogue with the Jihadist Coalition JNIM
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Authorities in Mali seem to be considering negotiations with Jamaat Nusratul Islam wal-Muslimin, the country’s largest Islamist insurgency. Pursuing talks will be a tall order, given the stakes and the group’s al-Qaeda connection. Both the government and the militants should begin with incremental steps.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Terrorism, Conflict, Violence, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mali
81. Identity Crisis: Ethnicity and Conflict in Myanmar
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Ethnicity and conflict are tightly linked in Myanmar, as communal groups take up arms to press grievances for which they have found no other recourse. The problem calls for dialogue and deep reform, but meanwhile authorities can take smaller steps to indicate their positive intent.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Reform, Ethnicity, Discrimination, Conflict, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Burma, and Myanmar
82. Peace in Ukraine (III): The Costs of War in Donbas
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Years of conflict have exacerbated the economic woes of Donbas, once an industrial powerhouse. Authorities in Kyiv should take steps now to aid pensioners and encourage small trade while also planning ahead for the region’s eventual reintegration with the rest of the country.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
83. Leaders under Fire: Defending Colombia’s Front Line of Peace
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Murders of Colombian grassroots activists are increasing at an alarming rate. The killers seek to sabotage the country’s 2016 peace agreement and the rural economic reform it promised. Bogotá should step up prosecution of these crimes while pushing to improve social conditions in the countryside.
- Topic:
- Economics, Terrorism, Political Activism, Reform, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
84. The U.S. Presidential Election: Managing the Risks of Violence
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The 2020 U.S. presidential election presents risks not seen in recent history. It is conceivable that violence could erupt during voting or protracted ballot counts. Officials should take extra precautions; media and foreign leaders should avoid projecting a winner until the outcome is certain.
- Topic:
- Elections, Conflict, Violence, Voting, Election Dispute, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
85. How Europe Can Help Lebanon Overcome Its Economic Implosion
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Lebanon’s reeling economy badly needs outside aid. Yet the political class, which largely created the problems, is resisting necessary change. The European Union should keep limiting its assistance to humanitarian relief until Lebanese politicians make reforms that benefit all citizens, not just the privileged few.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, Reform, European Union, and Humanitarian Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Lebanon
86. Virus-proof Violence: Crime and COVID-19 in Mexico and the Northern Triangle
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As the coronavirus rages in Mexico and the northerly Central American countries, criminal outfits have adapted, often enlarging their turf. To fight organised crime more effectively, governments should combine policing with programs to aid the vulnerable and create attractive alternatives to illegal economic activity.
- Topic:
- Crime, Violence, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Organized Crime
- Political Geography:
- Central America, North America, and Mexico
87. All That Glitters is Not Gold: Turmoil in Zimbabwe’s Mining Sector
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In 2019, killings by machete-wielding gangs at Zimbabwe’s gold mines jogged the government into preventive action. But police sweeps alone cannot make the sector safe. Harare should adopt reforms that allow more citizens to mine legally and head off disputes over the country’s mineral wealth.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Inequality, Mining, Organized Crime, and Wealth
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
88. Easing Cameroon’s Ethno-political Tensions, On and Offline
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Two years after Cameroon’s contested presidential election, political rivalry has taken a worrying direction as the incumbent’s supporters trade ethnic slurs with backers of his main challenger. The government should undertake electoral reforms, bar discrimination and work with social media platforms to curtail hate speech.
- Topic:
- Reform, Elections, Social Media, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
89. Disorder on the Border: Keeping the Peace between Colombia and Venezuela
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Colombian-Venezuelan frontier, long plagued by guerrilla warfare and organised crime, is now also the site of an inter-state standoff. The two countries should urgently reopen communication channels to lower tensions and lessen the suffering of migrants who cross the border, whether legally or otherwise.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Conflict, Borders, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Venezuela
90. Venezuela: What Lies Ahead after Election Clinches Maduro’s Clean Sweep
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Following legislative elections, President Nicolás Maduro controls all of Venezuela’s major political institutions. Meanwhile, the country’s crisis deepens apace. An exit remains possible if the government and opposition adjust their zero-sum thinking to admit the need for compromise. The new U.S. administration can help.
- Topic:
- Elections, Leadership, Conflict, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
91. Preventing a Bloody Harvest on the Armenia-Azerbaijan State Border
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Deadly July 2020 clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces left dozens dead, civilians among them, and forced villagers to flee their homes on the Armenia-Azerbaijan state border. Shooting across the trenches along the border is more frequent today than anywhere else on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict’s front lines. Why does it matter? Efforts by Baku and Yerevan, including through limited diplomacy, a communication channel set up in 2018 and an agreement between the two sides to safeguard farmers, have largely failed to create conditions that would deter people from leaving border areas. Violence there also risks permanently damaging wider peace efforts. What should be done? The two sides should use the communication channel to warn each other about planned engineering works or other activities that might be misconstrued and lead to escalation. They should begin talks on limited cooperation to allow farmers to harvest crops, repair water networks and clear mines.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
92. Peace in Ukraine (II): A New Approach to Disengagement
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to power in 2019 promising to bring peace to Ukraine’s Donbas region, where government and Russian-backed separatist forces are locked in low-level combat. Yet a full, sustained ceasefire remains elusive. Although casualties have dropped from their 2014-2015 peak, fighting continues to kill soldiers and civilians. Why does it matter? Each of the warring parties wants a ceasefire but only if it will lead to peace on its own terms. All prefer to tolerate continued fighting rather than stop the shooting under conditions they deem unfavourable. What should be done? A comprehensive ceasefire is likely unattainable under today’s political conditions. In its absence, the parties should pursue sectoral bilateral disengagements with clear humanitarian and related goals, even as they seek a durable political settlement through talks.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Peace, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
93. Raising the Stakes in Jammu and Kashmir
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? In August 2019, India unilaterally revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status, redrew its internal boundaries, and scrapped Kashmiris’ exclusive rights to immovable property and access to government jobs. To quell potential protests, the authorities ordered an unprecedented crackdown, which included detaining almost all local politicians and a months-long communications blackout. Why did it happen? Revocation of the Indian constitution’s Article 370, which gave Kashmir its previous status, had been on the Bharatiya Janata Party’s agenda for decades. Emboldened by its landslide win of a second term in May 2019, the government ordered the state’s overhaul soon afterward, without consulting Kashmiri politicians or society. Why does it matter? New Delhi claimed that its bold move would help bring peace and development to the region after three decades of conflict. One year later, its reforms, coupled with heavy-handed counter-insurgency tactics, have only exacerbated Kashmiri alienation and raised tensions with Pakistan. Kashmir’s youth continues to join militant ranks. What should be done? While New Delhi appears unlikely to reverse course, its international allies should strongly encourage it to restore Kashmiri statehood, free detained politicians and end security forces’ abuses against civilians. Pakistan’s partners should push harder for it to stop backing anti-India jihadists. Both countries should abide by their 2003 Kashmir ceasefire.
- Topic:
- Development, Territorial Disputes, Crisis Management, Peace, Autonomy, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Jammu and Kashmir
94. Taking Stock of the Taliban’s Perspectives on Peace
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? On 29 February 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement meant to prompt peace talks between the militant group and the Afghan government. Many issues have delayed those talks, including widespread concerns about the Taliban’s willingness to compromise in a political settlement ending the war. Why does it matter? The U.S.-Taliban deal opened a fragile window of opportunity to settle the world’s deadliest conflict. But for talks among Afghans to progress, the Taliban will need to move beyond vague governing principles and put forth concrete negotiating positions on reconciliation, power sharing and governance. What should be done? The Taliban should swiftly determine clear negotiating positions and be prepared to debate – and eventually reach compromises – on these as intra-Afghan talks unfold. The U.S. and other donors should leverage prospects of post-transition assistance as encouragement, while the Afghan government and civil society should engage the group and its ideas.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Non State Actors, Taliban, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America
95. Iran: The U.S. Brings Maximum Pressure to the UN
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? A U.S. resolution seeking to extend UN arms restrictions on Iran beyond their October 2020 expiration failed at the Security Council. Washington has asserted that it will claim the right to unilaterally restore UN sanctions, which were terminated as part of the 2015 nuclear agreement. Why does it matter? Any U.S. attempt to reimpose sanctions will be controversial, given the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and likely to create deadlock at the Security Council. The administration’s goal is clear: kill the deal or make it that much harder for a successor administration to rejoin it. What should be done? The remaining parties to the deal should be united in resisting Washington’s efforts, as should other Security Council members. They should essentially disregard a U.S. “snapback” – restoring sanctions – as ineffectual, obstruct attempts to implement it and discourage Iran from overreacting to what will end up being a symbolic U.S. move.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, United Nations, Sanctions, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
96. Calibrating the Response: Turkey’s ISIS Returnees
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Turkey has to deal with thousands of citizens who travelled to join ISIS and have now returned. Of the few convicted, many will soon be released from jail. Others are under surveillance. The fate of the rest is murky. Why does it matter? ISIS’s diminished stature and measures adopted by the Turkish authorities have spared Turkey from ISIS attacks for more than three years. But while the threat should not be overplayed, it has not necessarily disappeared. That Turkish returnees turn their back on militancy is important for national and regional security. What should be done? Ankara’s approach toward returnees or others suspected of ties to jihadism relies mostly on surveillance and detention. The government could consider also offering support for returnees’ families, alternatives for youngsters at risk of being drawn into militancy and support for returnees released after serving ISIS-related jail time.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Law Enforcement, Violent Extremism, and Islamic State
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
97. Rethinking Peace in Yemen
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? A COVID-19 outbreak has injected new energy into diplomatic efforts to end Yemen’s regionalised civil war, now in its sixth year. But the parties remain stubbornly opposed to compromise and the UN’s two-party mediation framework no longer provides a realistic pathway to peace given the country’s political and military fragmentation. Why does it matter? The war has killed more than 112,000 people and has left 24 million in need of some form of humanitarian assistance. The pandemic could further decimate a population lacking access to health care and particularly vulnerable due to malnutrition. The worst may be prevented if the war can be halted. What should be done? The Yemeni government and Huthis should right-size expectations regarding a political settlement and accept inclusion of other political and armed factions in UN-led negotiations. The UN Security Council should draft a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire and inclusive settlement and table it if the parties stick to their positions.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Peace, Humanitarian Crisis, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Gulf Nations
98. Miracle or Mirage? Gangs and Plunging Violence in El Salvador
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? In President Nayib Bukele’s first year in office, El Salvador has seen a sharp drop in what long were sky-high murder rates. While the public celebrates his well-known “iron fist” policies, the reasons for success might lie in quiet, informal understandings between gangs and the government. Why does it matter? It is a major feat to reduce killings by the three main gangs in one of the world’s most violent countries. But the precise causes of the decline are complex and often unclear. Recent outbreaks of gang violence and political mudslinging underline the fragility and reversibility of this achievement. What should be done? Sustaining violence reduction is key. The government should prioritise community-focused development, rehabilitation of jailed gang members and more sophisticated policing efforts, including internal checks on security forces. Should gangs keep violence down and cooperate with authorities during the pandemic, Bukele should consider opening channels for local dialogue with them.
- Topic:
- Crime, Governance, Law Enforcement, Reform, Violence, and Gangs
- Political Geography:
- South America and El Salvador
99. Ending the Dangerous Standoff in Southern Somalia
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Hundreds of troops loyal to the Federal Government of Somalia, on one side, and Jubaland regional state, on the other, are locked in a tense showdown in the Gedo region of southern Somalia. Clashes between them have already resulted in fatalities and uprooted thousands from their homes. Why does it matter? Neighbouring Ethiopia and Kenya, which are both troop contributors to the African Union’s peacekeeping mission in Somalia, seek to avoid direct confrontation but respectively support the opposing federal and Jubaland administrations. The situation plays into the hands of the Al-Shabaab Islamist insurgency, which is further entrenching its presence in Gedo. What should be done? The African Union, along with the eastern African sub-regional bloc, the Intergovernmental Authority for Development, and Somalia’s bilateral partners, should lean on Ethiopia and Kenya to push the two sides to de-escalate tensions. Talks would allow the sides to refocus energies on stemming Al-Shabaab’s gains.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Negotiation, Islamism, Al Shabaab, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Horn of Africa
100. How to Shield Education from Al-Shabaab in Kenya’s North East
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Jihadists have repeatedly attacked schools in north-eastern Kenya in the last eighteen months. In response, the government has shuttered many schools and pulled most teachers out of a long-neglected region that is one of Al-Shabaab’s main recruiting centres outside Somalia. Why does it matter? The education crisis adds to an already existing sense of marginalisation in north-eastern Kenya. Thousands of out-of-school youngsters could constitute an attractive pool of recruits for Al-Shabaab, which is engaged in a long-term campaign to deepen its foothold in the region. What should be done? The Kenyan government should afford the north east’s residents, including police reservists, a greater role in tackling militancy and revive community-centred efforts that to some degree succeeded in rolling back Al-Shabaab in the past. It should also restore learning by providing stopgap funding so local administrations can hire replacement teachers.
- Topic:
- Security, Education, Violence, Islamism, and Al Shabaab
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa