Search

Begin New Search Political Geography United States Publishing Institution International Crisis Group Publication Year within 25 Years

41. Political Murder in Central Asia: No Time to End Uzbekistan's Isolation

Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
There are strong indications that Uzbek security forces murdered one of Kyrgyzstan's most prominent journalists, Alisher Saipov, in October 2007 during the build-up to Uzbekistan's end of year presidential elections, most likely because of his involvement in Erk (Freedom), a leading exile opposition party. If this is the case, it would appear that the security organs, which are the key to keeping President Islam Karimov in power, are increasingly willing to move against any perceived danger, even if it involves pre-emptive strikes in foreign territory. This may be a sign not only of the ruthlessness of the regime but also of its increasing fragility. At the least it underlines the need for the U.S. and the European Union (EU) to resist the temptation to respond to Karimov's dubious December 2007 re-election with efforts at re-engagement, in the apparent hope of regaining or retaining military bases for Afghanistan operations or of outflanking Russia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan

42. Afghanistan: The Need for International Resolve

Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Afghanistan is not lost but the signs are not good. Its growing insurgency reflects a collective failure to tackle the root causes of violence. Six years after the Taliban's ouster, the international community lacks a common diagnosis of what is needed to stabilise the country as well as a common set of objectives. Long-term improvement of institutions is vital for both state building and counterinsurgency, but without a more strategic approach, the increased attention and resources now directed at quelling the conflict could even prove counterproductive by furthering a tendency to seek quick fixes. Growing tensions over burden sharing risk undermining the very foundations of multilateralism, including NATO's future. The U.S., which is demanding more commitment by allies, must realise that its unilateral actions weaken the will of others. At the same time, those sniping from the sidelines need to recognise that the Afghan intervention is ultimately about global security and do more.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban

43. Russia vs Georgia: The Fallout - Europe Report N°195

Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Russia-Georgia conflict has transformed the contemporary geopolitical world, with large consequences for peace and security in Europe and beyond. Moscow's initial moves into South Ossetia as large-scale violence broke out there on 7-8 August were in part a response to a disastrous miscalculation by a Georgian leadership that was impatient with gradual confidence building and a Russian-dominated negotiations process. But Russia's disproportionate counter-attack, with movement of large forces into Abkhazia and deep into Georgia, accompanied by the widespread destruction of economic infrastructure, damage to the economy and disruption of communications and movement between different regions of the country, constitutes a dramatic shift in Russian-Western relations. It has undermined regional stability and security; threatened energy corridors that are vital for Europe; made claims with respect to ethnic Russians and other minorities that could be used to destabilise other parts of the former Soviet Union, with Ukraine a potential target; and shown disregard for international law.
Topic:
NATO, International Political Economy, and War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, Soviet Union, Moscow, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia

44. After Mecca: Engaging Hamas

Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It has been a year since Hamas formed its government – and what a dismal year it has been. The Islamists thought they could govern without paying an ideological price, Fatah that it could swiftly push them aside and regain power. By imposing sanctions and boycotting the government, the Quartet (U.S., European Union (EU), Russia and UN) and Israel hoped to force Hamas to change or persuade the Palestinians to oust it. Washington promised security and economic aid to encourage Fatah to confront Hamas and help defeat it. The illusions have brought only grief. The 8 February 2007 Saudi-brokered Mecca Agreement between the Palestinian rivals offers the chance of a fresh start: for Hamas and Fatah to restore law and order and rein in militias; for Israelis and Palestinians to establish a comprehensive ceasefire and start a credible peace process; and for the Quartet (or at least those of its members inclined to do so) to adopt a more pragmatic attitude that judges a government of national unity by deeds, not rhetoric. The adjustment will not be comfortable for anyone. But the alternative is much worse.
Topic:
Development, Government, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Washington, Middle East, and Israel

45. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Annapolis and After

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The process that will be launched shortly at Annapolis may not quite be do-or-die for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process but at the very least it is do-or-barely-survive. Positively, a U.S. administration that neglected Middle East peacemaking since taking office appears committed to an intensive effort: it has persuaded both sides to agree to negotiate final status issues – no mean feat after years of diplomatic paralysis and violent conflict. But pitfalls are equally impressive. The meeting, like the process it aims to spawn, occurs in a highly politicised context, with sharp divisions in the Palestinian and Israeli camps. These will make it hard to reach agreement and to sell it to both constituencies and, for the foreseeable future, virtually impossible to implement. Moreover, failure of the negotiations could discredit both leaderships, while further undermining faith in diplomacy and the twostate solution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

46. Ethiopia and Eritrea: Stopping the Slide to War

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real. A military buildup along the common border over the past few months has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military solution if hostilities restart; more likely is a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic humanitarian crisis. To prevent this, the international community – in particular, the UN Security Council and the U.S., which is the single most influential outsider – must act immediately to give both sides the clearest possible message that no destabilising unilateral action will be tolerated. Once the immediate danger is past, efforts should be reinvigorated to ensure that the parties comply with their international law obligations, disengage on the ground and restore the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) – in a longer time frame – to develop political and economic initiatives for resolving the fundamental problems between the old foes.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

47. After Baker-Hamilton: What to Do in Iraq

Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Slowly, incrementally, the realisation that a new strategy is needed for Iraq finally is dawning on U.S. policy- makers. It was about time. By underscoring the U.S. intervention's disastrous political, security, and economic balance sheet, and by highlighting the need for both a new regional and Iraqi strategy, the Baker-Hamilton report represents an important and refreshing moment in the country's domestic debate. Many of its key – and controversial – recommendations should be wholly supported, including engaging Ira n and Syria, revitalising the Arab-Israeli peace process, reintegrating Baathists, instituting a far-reaching amnesty, delaying the Kirkuk referendum, negotiating the withdrawal of U.S. forces with Iraqis and engaging all parties in Iraq.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Development
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

48. Perilous Journeys: The Plight of North Koreans in China and Beyond

Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Scores of thousands of North Koreans have been risking their lives to escape their country's hardships in search of a better life, contributing to a humanitarian challenge that is playing out almost invisibly as the world focuses on North Korea's nuclear program. Only a little over 9,000 have made it to safety, mostly in South Korea but also in Japan, Europe and the U.S. Many more live in hiding from crackdowns and forcible repatriations by China and neighbouring countries, vulnerable to abuse and exploitation. If repatriated to the North, they face harsh punishment, possibly execution. China and South Korea have held back, even during the Security Council debate over post-test sanctions, from applying as much pressure as they might to persuade Pyongyang to reverse its dangerous nuclear policy, in part because they fear that the steady stream of North Koreans flowing into China and beyond would become a torrent if the North's economy were to collapse under the weight of tough measures. While there is marginally more hope Beijing will change its ways than Pyongyang, concerned governments can and must do far more to improve the situation of the border crossers.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

49. Tougher Challenges Ahead for Colombia's Uribe

Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
President Alvaro Uribe was overwhelmingly reelected in May 2006, two months after parties supporting him won large majorities in the Congress. The armed forces are stronger than they have ever been, and U.S. aid appears relatively secure. As he begins his second four-year term, Uribe seems to be in a stronger position to tackle Colombia's long-standing problems: drug trafficking, the internal conflict, continued lack of security and poverty in rural areas, corruption, and social inequality. But appearances may be deceiving. His governing coalition is fractious, his popularity vulnerable to what a still powerful insurgency chooses to do. He has yet to define a comprehensive second-term strategy for peace and development that addresses these issues and puts a priority on bringing rural Colombia into the political, economic and social mainstream.
Topic:
Economics, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, and South America

50. Pakistan: The Worsening Conflict in Balochistan

Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
President Pervez Musharraf and the military are responsible for the worsening of the conflict in Balochistan. Tensions between the government and its Baloch opposition have grown because of Islamabad's heavy-handed armed response to Baloch militancy and its refusal to negotiate demands for political and economic autonomy. The killing of Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti in August 2006 sparked riots and will likely lead to more confrontation. The conflict could escalate if the government insists on seeking a military solution to what is a political problem and the international community, especially the U.S., fails to recognise the price that is involved for security in neighbouring Afghanistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

51. Nepal's Crisis: Mobilising International Influence

Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Pro-democracy demonstrations and a general strike across Nepal in recent weeks mark a decisive shift in the country's political equations and probably signal the approaching end of King Gyanendra's direct rule. A successful popular movement could advance the search for peace but will depend on strong political party leadership in dealing with the Maoists; a messy transition would bring its own risks. Although domestic events will determine the speed and direction of political change, international players should us e their influence to establish practical plans to help stabilise the situation and build a more lasting foundation for peace. This briefing argues for the early formation of a Contact Group (consisting of India, the U.S. and UK, working with the UN) and a complementary Peace Support Group (other key donors and international financial institutions) to form a common front on strategy and tactics to maximise international influence in assisting Nepal's escape from its worsening conflict.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, India, Asia, Nepal, and United Nations

52. North Korea's Nuclear Test: The Fallout

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The North Korean nuclear standoff entered an even more troubling phase with Pyongyang's test of a nuclear device on 9 October 2006. Condemnation was nearly universal, and the UN Security Council moved quickly to pass Resolution 1718 unanimously less than a week later. The test stirred China to take an unusually strong line against its ally, joining UN sanctions and dispatching a senior envoy to Pyongyang. On 31 October, after talks in Beijing with the U.S. and China, Pyongyang agreed to return to the six-party talks. The resumption of a diplomatic process is welcome but will likely face the same pitfalls as earlier rounds in which progress was undermined by a lack of clear understandings between North Korea and the U.S. While the six-party talks are a useful forum, resolving the nuclear issue will also require committed bilateral negotiations that address in detail North Korea's security concerns and U.S. demands for complete disarmament and intrusive verification. China's strong response may prove to be a major new factor pressing North Korea to offer more concessions in the talks, but only if the U.S. is prepared to set the table with a far more specific and appetizing menu than it has thus far.
Topic:
Security, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, China, Beijing, North Korea, and Pyongyang

53. Serbia's New Constitution: Democracy Going Backwards

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Premier Vojislav Kostunica won a high stakes gamble with passage of Serbia's draft constitution in the 28-29 October referendum. However, numerous credible reports indicate the process was deeply flawed and the result falsified. The referendum cannot be characterised as either free or fair. The new constitution could prove a step away from European values. It opens the door to increased centralisation of the state, curtailment of human and minority rights, destruction of judicial independence and potentially even a parliamentary dictatorship. The process used to pass the constitution illustrates how Kostunica continues to transform Serbia into something closer to illiberal authoritarianism than liberal democracy; yet, the referendum was welcomed by the Council of Europe, the European Union and the United States.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Serbia

54. Zimbabwe: An Opposition Strategy

Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The risk of an explosion that could cost thousands of lives in the country and shatter the stability of Southern Africa is growing in Zimbabwe. Political reform is blocked, and virtually every economic indicator continues to trend downward. Inflation, poverty and malnutrition are growing more acute. Party and civil society opponents of President Mugabe's government are yet to tap effectively into the living-standards-based dissatisfaction but it could finally become the spark that sets Zimbabwe toward change. The course is risky but Zimbabwe's splintered opposition needs to come together to formulate a campaign of non-violent resistance that channels this anger and frustration into pressure on Mugabe to keep his word to retire by 2008 and on his ruling ZANU-PF party to negotiate seriously on a transition. The international community, long frustrated at its inability to influence the crisis, should assist, especially by tightening targeted sanctions (U.S./EU) and offering mediation services (South Africa).
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

55. Iraq's Muqtada Al-Sadr: Spoiler or Stabiliser?

Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With stepped-up U.S.-led raids against Muqtada al-Sadr's militia, Jaysh al-Mahdi, and media allegations of the militia's responsibility for widespread and particularly horrendous sectarian killings in Baghdad on 9 July, the Shiite leader and his movement have become more central than ever. The war in Iraq radically reshuffled the country's political deck, bringing to the fore new actors and social forces, none more surprising and enigmatic, and few as critical to Iraq's stability, as Muqtada al-Sadr and the Sadrist movement he embodies. Largely unknown prior to the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime and bereft of resources Shiites typically must possess to assert their authority, Muqtada al-Sadr at first was dismissed as a marginal rabble-rouser, excluded from the political process and, after he flexed his muscles, decreed wanted “dead or alive” by the U.S.-led coalition. Learning the hard way, the U.S. and its allies have had to recognise the reality of the Sadrists' strength.
Topic:
Democratization and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

56. Reforming Egypt: In Search of a Strategy

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Egypt's first multi-candidate presidential election, a response to U.S. pressure, was a false start for reform. Formal pluralism has never seriously limited the dominance of President Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP); extension to the presidential level is a token so long as the opposition is too weak to produce plausible candidates. If the further reforms Mubarak has promised are to be meaningful, they should be aimed at recasting state/NDP relations and, above all, enhancing parliament's powers. As a start, Mubarak should ensure free and fair November legislative elections. The legal opposition must make the case for these changes and overcome its divisions if it is to become relevant and be able to compete with the Muslim Brothers for popular influence. The U.S. and others should support judicial supervision of elections, refrain from pressing for quick, cosmetic results, and back a longer-term, genuine reform process.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, North Africa, and Egypt

57. China and Taiwan: Uneasy Détente

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After drifting toward crisis for much of 2004, the outlook for stability across the Taiwan Strait has improved. Constraints on Taiwan pursuing pro-independence initiatives that risk conflict with China will likely remain strong through to the end of President Chen Shui-bian's term of office in 2008. These include a reinvigorated political opposition and Chinese initiatives that have won some poplar support in Taiwan and weakened the drive for independence. Most importantly, the U.S. appears determined to deter not only a Chinese attack but also provocative Taiwan independence moves.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, and Asia

58. Iran: What Does Ahmadi-Nejad's Victory Mean?

Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The surprise election of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, who is being sworn in as president this week, has given rise to dire predictions about Iran's domestic and foreign policies and relations with the U.S. and the European Union. There are reasons for concern. Based on his rhetoric, past performance, and the company he keeps, Ahmadi-Nejad appears a throwback to the revolution's early days: more ideological, less pragmatic, and anti- American. But for the West, and the U.S. in particular, to reach and act upon hasty conclusions would be wrong. Iran is governed by complex institutions and competing power centres that inherently favour continuity over change. More importantly , none of the fundamentals has changed: the regime is not about to collapse; it holds pivotal cards on Iraq and nuclear proliferation; and any chance of modifying its behaviour will come, if at all, through serious, coordinated EU and U.S. efforts to engage it.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

59. The Jerusalem Powder Keg

Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While the world focuses on Gaza, the future of Israeli-Palestinian relations in fact may be playing itself out away from the spotlight, in Jerusalem. With recent steps, Israel is attempting to solidify its hold over a wide area in and around the city, creating a far broader Jerusalem. If the international community and specifically the U.S. are serious about preserving and promoting a viable two-state solution, they need to speak far more clearly and insistently to halt actions that directly and immediately jeopardise that goal. And if that solution is ever to be reached, they will need to be clear that changes that have occurred since Israelis and Palestinians last sat down to negotiate in 2000-2001 will have to be reversed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, and Gaza

60. Swaziland: The Clock Is Ticking

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Swaziland has been an absolute monarchy for more than 30 years, with a royal leadership that ignores worsening social ills and a small elite that is often openly corrupt. A new constitution that further codifies broad royal powers and privileges is in the final stages of preparation. Political violence is still more talked about than actual but frustration is building. Multilateral African institutions, the EU and key countries like South Africa and the U.S. have been too willing to accept the royalists' line that any change must come very slowly. More pressure from the outside is needed to help pro-reform elements inside the country bring back a constitutional monarchy and genuine democracy that are the best guarantees Swazi instability will not eventually infect the region.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Africa, and Swaziland