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1. Serbia: Maintaining Peace in the Presevo Valley

Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Southern Serbia's Albanian-majority Presevo Valley is one of the rare conflict resolution success stories in the former Yugoslavia. Outwardly, it is increasingly normal, with no major incidents in over three years. Yet, tensions linger: massive unemployment is still the single largest problem but the shadow of Kosovo's future status darkens the political landscape. How Kosovo's final status is determined in the next months will have a profound impact. If formal partition or large-scale violence accompanies independence, the peace could unravel; in a worst case scenario, ethnic cleansing in southern Serbia would be accompanied by significant, cross-boundary, two-way refugee flows. All parties – local Albanian politicians, the Serbian government and the international community – need to work with greater urgency on developing the region's economy and ensuring that developments in Kosovo do not disrupt its peaceful progress.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

2. Kosovo's Status: Difficult Months Ahead

Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
There is growing concern that the short postponement UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari announced in November 2006 for presentation of his Kosovo final status proposals to take account of Serbia's 21 January elections may not be the last delay in a process that now could extend into the second half of 2007. Nervous Kosovo Albanian leaders worry they may not be able to contain public pressures beyond March. With Russia's position hardening and Serbia as obstinate as ever, EU unity is vital – but far from assured – to keep the status process on track, first in the small Contact Group that has managed Kosovo affairs since 1999, then in the Security Council where ultimate decisions should be made.
Topic:
Security and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania

3. Southern Serbia's Fragile Peace

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Albanian-majority Presevo Valley in southern Serbia is one of the few conflict resolution success stories in the former Yugoslavia. Yet tensions linger, and a series of violent incidents in August and September 2003 demonstrated that the peace can still unravel. Serbia's stalled reform process is preventing the political and economic changes that are needed to move forward on many critical issues in the area, and there is a general sense among local Albanians that peace has not delivered what it promised: an end to tensions with Serb security forces and prosperity.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

4. Serbian Reform Stails Again

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The reformist zeal displayed by the Serbian government following the 12 March 2003 assassination of Premier Zoran Djindjic appears to have dissipated. A number of important and positive steps were taken while the shock of that political murder was still fresh. Increasingly, however, their impact is being counterbalanced by actions that bring into question the government's ability to press decisive political and economic reforms home so as to achieve the goal of integration with wider European institutions.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Serbia

5. Serbia's Transition: Reforms Under Siege

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 3 August 2001 murder of former State Security (DB) official Momir Gavrilovic acted as a catalyst for the emergence of a long-hidden feud within Serbia's ruling DOS (Democratic Opposition of Serbia) coalition. Inflamed by Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica's closest advisers, the 'Gavrilovic Affair' has driven a wedge into DOS that could spell the end of the coalition in its present form. In so doing, Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) has been exposed more clearly than before as a conservative nationalist party intent on preserving certain elements of the Milosevic regime.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Serbia

6. Milosevic in the Hague: What it Means for Yugoslavia and the Region

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 28 June 2001, St Vitus's Day – an anniversary with enormous resonance in Yugoslavia – Serbian government transferred former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic to The Hague. By this bold political move, the government demonstrated in the clearest way its will to break with the past. With the timing driven by the international donors conference scheduled for 29 June, the transfer also confirmed the effectiveness of conditioning economic assistance to Yugoslavia on concrete political progress.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

7. War Criminals in Bosnia's Republika Srpska: Who are the People in Your Neighbourhood?

Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Five years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, which brought an end to almost four years of bloody war in Bosnia, many of those believed to have carried out some of the war's worst atrocities remain at large. The continued presence in the municipalities of Republika Srpska (RS) of individuals suspected of war crimes—some indicated either publicly or secretly by the International War Crimes Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)—represents a significant obstacle to the return of ethnic minority refugees. It also undermines seriously Bosnia's chances for building central institutions, generating self-sustainable economic growth, and achieving the political transformation necessary to begin the process of integration with the rest of Europe. Moreover, the continued commitment of most war crimes suspects to the goal of a Greater Serbia, and their willingness to use violence to achieve it, could—in the long term—provoke renewed conflict in Bosnia and continued instability in the Balkans.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

8. Reaction in Kosovo to Kostunica's Victory

Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While the world watched in fascination as mass demonstrations in Belgrade toppled Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic from power, Kosovo—where Milosevic had committed some of his worst crimes—had an almost eerie air of normalcy. On the night Milosevic fell, cafés were full and the usual crowd of young people strolled along Pristina's central artery, Mother Theresa Street. But Pristina's surface in difference masked serious unease about events in Serbia and especially about the swelling international welcome for newly elected President Vojislav Kostunica. Kosovo Albania's political circles, opinion leaders, and public, which for long had a head-in-the-sand approach toward the rise of the democratic opposition in Belgrade, are only beginning to come to grips with the changed political landscape in the Balkans caused by Milosevic's fall.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

9. Serbia: The Milosevic Regime on the Eve of September Elections

Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The regime in Serbia has recovered its footing after the 1999 war with NATO and remains as hard-line as ever. Learning and gaining experience over the years has enabled the regime to “improve” its performance and become more efficient. Most analysts in Serbia agree that Milosevic will be able to stay in power indefinitely.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Serbia