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1. The Next Iraqi War? Sectarianism and Civil Conflict

Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The bomb attack on a sacred Shiite shrine in Samarra on 22 February 2006 and subsequent reprisals against Sunni mosques and killings of Sunni Arabs is only the latest and bloodiest indication that Iraq is teetering on the threshold of wholesale disaster. Over the past year, social and political tensions evident since the removal of the Baathist regime have turned into deep rifts. Iraq's mosaic of communities has begun to fragment along ethnic, confessional and tribal lines, bringing in stability and violence to many areas, especially those with mixed populations. The most urgent of these incipient conflicts is a Sunni-Shiite schism that threatens to tear the country apart. Its most visible manifestation is a dirty war being fought between a small group of insurgents bent on fomenting sectarian strife by killing Shiites and certain government commando units carrying out reprisals against the Sunni Arab community in whose midst the insurgency continues to thrive. Iraqi political actors and the international community must act urgently to prevent a low-intensity conflict from escalating into an all-out civil war that could lead to Iraq's disintegration and destabilise the entire region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

2. The Shiite Question in Saudi Arabia

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
From Saudi Arabia's establishment in 1932, its minority Shiite population has been subject to discrimination and sectarian incitement. Beginning in the early 1990s, with then Crown Prince Abdullah's active support, the government took steps to improve inter-sectarian relations. But the measures were modest, and tensions are rising. The war in Iraq has had a notable effect, strengthening Shiite aspirations and Sunni suspicions and generally deepening confessional divisions throughout the region. King Abdullah needs to act resolutely to improve the lot of the two-million strong Shiite community and rein in domestic expressions of anti-Shiite hostility.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

3. Unmaking Iraq: A Constitutional Process Gone Awry, Middle East Briefing

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Instead of healing the growing divisions between Iraq's three principal communities -- Shiites, Kurds and Sunni Arabs -- a rushed constitutional process has deepened rifts and hardened feelings. Without a strong U.S.-led initiative to assuage Sunni Arab concerns, the constitution is likely to fuel rather than dampen the insurgency, encourage ethnic and sectarian violence, and hasten the country's violent break-up.
Topic:
Government, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan

4. Iraq's Constitutional Challenge

Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As attacks against the occupying forces and suicide bombs against civilian targets intensify, the need for a new political formula that will increase the powers, legitimacy and representative quality of Iraqi governing institutions is becoming more urgent than ever. The response to date, reflected in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1511, has been to tie the transfer of the exercise of sovereignty to the drafting of an Iraqi constitution, its adoption in a referendum and ensuing national elections.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Politics, Religion, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Iraq, Arabia, and United Nations

5. Radical Islam In Iraqi Kurdistan: The Mouse That Roared?

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Tucked away in a handful of villages in a remote pocket of Iraqi Kurdistan, a small group of radical Islamist fighters has been accused of being the Kurdish offspring of the al-Qaeda network, and thus has become a fresh target in the international war on terrorism. To compensate for its limited reach and popularity, this group, called Ansar al-Islam (Partisans of Islam), has built on tenuous regional alliances to survive in the harsh mountainous environment above the town of Halabja in northwestern Iraq, just shy of the border with Iran. These alliances have enhanced its role as a minor spoiler in predominantly secular Kurdish politics in the Suleimaniyeh governorate.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Arabia, and Kurdistan