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2. Turkey-Greece: From Maritime Brinkmanship to Dialogue
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In mid-2020, Turkey and Greece put their Mediterranean fleets on high alert, dramatically raising tensions in their long-running dispute over air, water, rock and now seabed gas deposits as well. Talks have been frustrating but remain the best way to contain the risk of conflict.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Greece
3. Relaunching the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Thirteen years after Kosovo broke away from Serbia, the two countries remain mired in mutual non-recognition, with deleterious effects on both. The parties need to move past technicalities to tackle the main issues at stake: Pristina’s independence and Belgrade’s influence over Kosovo’s Serbian minority.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Minorities, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
4. Peace in Ukraine (II): A New Approach to Disengagement
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to power in 2019 promising to bring peace to Ukraine’s Donbas region, where government and Russian-backed separatist forces are locked in low-level combat. Yet a full, sustained ceasefire remains elusive. Although casualties have dropped from their 2014-2015 peak, fighting continues to kill soldiers and civilians. Why does it matter? Each of the warring parties wants a ceasefire but only if it will lead to peace on its own terms. All prefer to tolerate continued fighting rather than stop the shooting under conditions they deem unfavourable. What should be done? A comprehensive ceasefire is likely unattainable under today’s political conditions. In its absence, the parties should pursue sectoral bilateral disengagements with clear humanitarian and related goals, even as they seek a durable political settlement through talks.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Peace, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
5. The P5 +1, Iran and the Perils of Nuclear Brinkmanship
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West have had their share of dashed expectations, but even by this peculiar standard, the recent diplomatic roller coaster stands out. Brimming with hope in Istanbul, negotiators crashed to earth in Baghdad, a few weeks later. That was not unexpected, given inflated hopes, mismatched expectations and – most hurtful – conviction on both sides that they had the upper hand. But if negotiations collapse now, it is hard to know what comes next. Washington and Brussels seem to count on sanctions taking their toll and forcing Iran to compromise. Tehran appears to bank on a re-elected President Obama displaying more flexibility and an economically incapacitated Europe balking at sanctions that could boomerang. Neither is likely; instead, with prospects for a deal fading, Israeli pressure for a military option may intensify. Rather than more brinkmanship, Iran and the P5+1 (UN Security Council permanent members and Germany) should agree on intensive, continuous, technicallevel negotiations to achieve a limited agreement on Iran's 20 per cent enrichment.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Middle East
6. Turkey And The Middle East: Ambitions And Constraints
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Turkey is launching initiative after ambitious initiative aimed at stabilising the Middle East. Building on the successes of its normalisation with Syria and Iraq, it is facilitating efforts to reduce conflicts, expanding visafree travel, ramping up trade, integrating infrastructure, forging strategic relationships and engaging in multilateral regional platforms. For some, this new activism is evidence that Turkey is turning from its traditional allies in Europe and the United States. In fact, its increased role in the Middle East is a complement to and even dependent on its ties to the West.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia
7. Turkey and Armenia: Opening Minds, Opening Borders
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Turkey and Armenia are close to settling a dispute that has long roiled Caucasus politics, isolated Armenia and cast a shadow over Turkey's European Union (EU) ambition. For a decade and a half, relations have been poisoned by disagreement about issues including how to address a common past and compensate for crimes, territorial disputes, distrust bred in Soviet times and Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani land. But recently, progressively intense official engagement, civil society interaction and public opinion change have transformed the relationship, bringing both sides to the brink of an historic agreement to open borders, establish diplomatic ties and begin joint work on reconciliation. They should seize this opportunity to normalise. The politicised debate whether to recognise as genocide the destruction of much of the Ottoman Armenian population and the stalemated Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh should not halt momentum. The U.S., EU, Russia and others should maintain support for reconciliation and avoid harming it with statements about history at a critical and promising time.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Genocide, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Turkey, Caucasus, Asia, Soviet Union, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
8. Reunifying Cyprus: The Best Chance Yet
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A new peace process in Cyprus offers the best opportunity in decades to solve the intractable division of the island. The turnabout is largely due to the surprise election of Demetris Christofias to the Greek Cypriot presidency. He, together with his Turkish Cypriot counterpart, Mehmet Ali Talat, are demonstrating political will to make the current UN-mediated talks succeed. Key players like Turkey are being constructive. The outside world, particularly the UN and European Union (EU), needs to fully engage in support of a comprehensive settlement that will improve Cypriot security and prosperity, free Turkey to continue its movement into Europe and overcome a problem that is increasingly damaging to EU policy in the region and beyond.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, International Political Economy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United Nations
9. Turkey and Europe: The Decisive Year Ahead - Europe Report N°197
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Turkey is entering a critical year, in which its prospects for European Union (EU) membership are at make or break stage. Domestic crises over the past two years have slowed national reform, betrayed the promise of a new constitution and undermined the political will needed to pursue accession negotiations. Its leaders show scant sign of changing course, at least before the March 2009 local elections, and EU states are applying little pressure to reinvigorate reform. Both sides need to recall how much they have to gain from each other and move quickly on several fronts to break out of this downward spiral before one or the other breaks off the negotiations, which could then well prove impossible to start again.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
10. Southern Serbia: In Kosovo's Shadow
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Southern Serbia's Albanian-majority Presevo Valley is a still incomplete Balkan success story. Since international and Serbian government diplomacy resolved an ethnic Albanian insurgency in 2001, donors and Belgrade have invested significant resources to undo a legacy of human rights violations and improve the economy. Tensions are much decreased, major human rights violations have ended, the army and police are more sensitive to Albanian concerns and there is progress, though hesitant, in other areas, such as a multi-ethnic police force, gradual integration of the judiciary, and Albanian language textbooks. Ethnic Albanians appear increasingly intent on developing their own political identity inside Serbia and finding a way to cohabit with Serbs, something that should be encouraged and supported. Nevertheless, the Kosovo status process threatens to disrupt the Presevo Valley's calm.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, Balkans, Albania, and Southern Serbia