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1. Lebanon's Hizbollah Turns Eastward to Syria

Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Lebanese Shiite armed movement Hizbollah has gone all-in for Syrian President Bashar Assad. It has shown it will back his regime by any means necessary, despite doubts about its capacity to win a decisive victory and regardless of the risks to the movement's own moral standing and cross-sectarian appeal. As it is drawn ever-deeper into its neighbour's civil war that seems poised to endure for years, it finds itself increasingly distracted from its original anti-Israel focus and risking a profound reshaping of its identity.
Topic:
Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Governance
Political Geography:
Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

2. Syria's Phase of Radicalisation

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As the 10 April deadline Kofi Annan (the UN and Arab League joint Special Envoy) set for implementation of his peace plan strikes , the conflict ' s dynamics have taken an ugly and worrying turn. Syrians from all walks of life appear dumbfounded by the horrific levels of violence and hatred generated by the crisis. Regime forces have subjected entire neighbourhoods to intense bombardment, purportedly to crush armed opposition groups yet with no regard for civilians. Within the largest cities, innocent lives have been lost due to massive bomb attacks in the vicinity of key security installations. Perhaps most sickening of all have been pictures displaying the massacre of whole families, including the shattered skulls of young children. The first anniversary of what began as a predominantly peaceful protest movement came and went with only scattered popular demonstrations. Instead, there was immeasurable bloodshed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, United Nations, and Syria

3. Syria's Mutating Conflict

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
At a distance, Syria's conflict can resemble a slow, painful slog, punctuated by intermittent accelerations and apparent tipping points, influenced by international activity. Zoom in, and one can cast such impressions aside. Diplomatic manoeuvrings have ended up being little more than inertia masquerading as motion. The West used them to pretend it was doing more than it was; Russia exploited them to feign it backed the Syrian regime less than it actually did. Meanwhile, in Syria, one sees neither deadlock nor abrupt transformation; virtually everything has been changing but at a steady pace: the shape of the conflict; civil society dynamics; sectarian relations; and the very nature of the regime the opposition seeks to depose.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

4. Radical Islam in Gaza

Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The recent Israel-Hamas escalation returns a spotlight to Gaza and the Islamist movement's relationship with more militant organisations. Gaza arouses multiple concerns: does Hamas seeks to impose religious law; has its purported Islamisation stimulated growth of Salafi-Jihadi groups; and will al-Qaeda offshoots find a foothold there? Hamas faces competition from more radical Islamist groups, though their numbers are few, organisation poor, achievements against Israel so far minor and chances of threatening Gaza's government slight. The significance of Gaza's Salafi-Jihadis is less military capability than constraints they impose on Hamas: they are an ideological challenge; they appeal to members of its military wing, a powerful constituency; through attacks within and from Gaza, they threaten security; by criticising Hamas for not fighting Israel or implementing Sharia, they exert pressure for more militancy and Islamisation. The policy of isolating Gaza and ignoring Hamas exacerbates this problem. As the international community seeks new ways to address political Islam in the Arab upheaval's wake, Gaza is not the worst place to start.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza

5. Tentative Jihad: Syria's Fundamentalist Opposition

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Prematurely and exaggeratedly highlighted by the regime, belatedly and reluctantly acknowledged by the opposition, the presence of a powerful Salafi strand among Syria's rebels has become irrefutable. That is worrisome, but forms only part of a complex picture. To begin, not all Salafis are alike; the concept covers a gamut ranging from mainstream to extreme. Secondly, present-day Syria offers Salafis hospitable terrain – violence and sectarianism; disenchantment with the West, secular leaders and pragmatic Islamic figures; as well as access to Gulf Arab funding and jihadi military knowhow – but also adverse conditions, including a moderate Islamic tradition, pluralistic confessional make-up, and widespread fear of the kind of sectarian civil war that engulfed two neighbours. Thirdly, failure of the armed push this past summer caused a backlash against Salafi groups that grabbed headlines during the fighting.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

6. Drums of War: Israel and the "Axis of Resistance"

Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Of all the explanations why calm has prevailed in the Israeli-Lebanese arena since the end of the 2006 war, the principal one also should be cause for greatest concern: fear among the parties that the next confrontation would be far more devastating and broader in scope. None of the most directly relevant actors – Israel, Hizbollah, Syria and Iran – relishes this prospect, so all, for now, are intent on keeping their powder dry. But the political roots of the crisis remain unaddressed, the underlying dynamics are still explosive, and miscalculations cannot be ruled out. The only truly effective approach is one that would seek to resume – and conclude – meaningful Israeli-Syrian and Israeli-Lebanese peace talks. There is no other answer to the Hizbollah dilemma and, for now, few better ways to affect Tehran's calculations. Short of such an initiative, deeper political involvement by the international community is needed to enhance communications between the parties, defuse tensions and avoid costly missteps.
Topic:
Islam, Armed Struggle, Hegemony, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

7. New Crisis, Old Demons in Lebanon

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le Liban traverse, à nouveau, une zone de graves dangers. La crise qu'il subit depuis l'assassinat en 2005 de l'an- cien premier ministre Rafic Hariri, connaît en effet une nouvelle mutation particulièrement dangereuse, à mesure que les perspectives de mises en accusation décidées par le tribunal international chargé d'enquêter sur ce meurtre se font plus précises. L'implication attendue de membres du Hizbollah a replongé la scène politique dans une lutte féroce, où se jouent tout à la fois les relations intercommu- nautaires, la légitimité de la résistance que ce mouvement incarne, la crédibilité du tribunal, la survie de l'actuel gouvernement d'unité nationale, la solidité du récent rap- prochement syro-saoudien et, plus généralement, la stabi- lité bien fragile du pays. Le soutien international offert au tribunal, son rejet catégorique par le Hizbollah, et la diffi- culté qu'il y a pour Saad Hariri, premier ministre et fils de Rafic, à le désavouer risque de conduire rapidement à une impasse, dont les effets se re porteront rapidement au ni- veau de la rue.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Arabia

8. Yemen: Defusing the Saada Time Bomb

Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Away from media headlines, a war has been raging on and off in Yemen's northern governorate of Saada since 2004, flaring up in adjacent regions and, in 2008, reaching the outskirts of the capital, Sanaa. The conflict, which has brought about extensive destruction, pits a rebel group, known generically as the Huthis, against government forces. Today's truce is fragile and risks being short-lived. A breakdown would threaten Yemen's stability, already under severe duress due to the global economic meltdown, depleting national resources, renewed tensions between the country's northern elites and populations in the south and the threat from violent groups with varied links to al-Qaeda. Nor would the impact necessarily be contained within national borders. The country should use its traditional instruments-social and religious tolerance, cooptation of adversaries-to forge a more inclusive compact that reduces sectarian stigmatisation and absorbs the Huthis. International actors-principally Gulf States and the West-should use their leverage and the promise of reconstruction assistance to press both government and rebels to compromise.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia