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2. Pakistan’s Hard Policy Choices in Afghanistan
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Islamabad must tread carefully with its long-time Taliban allies back in power in Kabul. Pitfalls lie ahead for Pakistan’s domestic security and its foreign relations. The Pakistani government should encourage Afghanistan’s new authorities down the path of compromise with international demands regarding rights and counter-terrorism.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, and Asia
3. Beyond Emergency Relief: Averting Afghanistan’s Humanitarian Catastrophe
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- International donors cut off all but emergency aid to Afghanistan after the Taliban’s takeover in August. Months later, the state is collapsing and a humanitarian disaster is looming. Donors should work with the state to restore basic public services and mitigate the population’s suffering.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Leadership, Fragile States, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
4. Beyond Emergency Relief: Averting Afghanistan’s Humanitarian Catastrophe
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- International donors cut off all but emergency aid to Afghanistan after the Taliban’s takeover in August. Months later, the state is collapsing and a humanitarian disaster is looming. Donors should work with the state to restore basic public services and mitigate the population’s suffering.
- Topic:
- Disaster Relief, Infrastructure, Governance, Humanitarian Crisis, and Public Service
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
5. Taking Stock of the Taliban’s Perspectives on Peace
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? On 29 February 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement meant to prompt peace talks between the militant group and the Afghan government. Many issues have delayed those talks, including widespread concerns about the Taliban’s willingness to compromise in a political settlement ending the war. Why does it matter? The U.S.-Taliban deal opened a fragile window of opportunity to settle the world’s deadliest conflict. But for talks among Afghans to progress, the Taliban will need to move beyond vague governing principles and put forth concrete negotiating positions on reconciliation, power sharing and governance. What should be done? The Taliban should swiftly determine clear negotiating positions and be prepared to debate – and eventually reach compromises – on these as intra-Afghan talks unfold. The U.S. and other donors should leverage prospects of post-transition assistance as encouragement, while the Afghan government and civil society should engage the group and its ideas.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Non State Actors, Taliban, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America
6. Twelve Ideas to Make Intra-Afghan Negotiations Work
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Eighteen years after the U.S. war with Afghanistan’s Taliban began, all sides are taking the first formal steps toward a political settlement. From designating a neutral mediator to agreeing on “rules of the road”, Crisis Group lays out twelve prerequisites for keeping the talks going. What’s new? On 29 February, the U.S. and Taliban signed an agreement on a phased U.S. military drawdown, Taliban guarantees to sever ties with terrorist groups, and swift initiation of peace negotiations among Afghan parties to the war. These intra-Afghan negotiations could commence as soon as 10 March. Why does it matter? Intra-Afghan negotiations would be the first formal step to politically settle Afghanistan’s conflict since the U.S. toppled the Taliban regime in 2001. The U.S.-Taliban deal sets the stage for those talks, but it does not resolve issues among the Afghan parties that could prevent them from making progress. What should be done? All parties have crucial preparations to make, both before intra-Afghan negotiations start and during the talks’ early stages. Crisis Group has identified twelve key points that could make the difference between a successful beginning to a peace process and delays or early stagnation.
- Topic:
- War, Taliban, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
7. Afghanistan's Insurgency after the Transition
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The war in Afghanistan entered a new phase in 2013. It now is increasingly a contest between the insurgents and the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Many within and outside the government are more optimistic about stability in the wake of a relatively successful first round of presidential elections on 5 April 2014. However, any euphoria should be tempered by a realistic assessment of the security challenges that President Karzai's successor will face in the transitional period of 2014-2015. Kabul may find these challenges difficult to overcome without significant and sustained international security, political and economic support.
- Topic:
- International Security, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
8. Afghanistan: A Thousand Little Wars
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- To contain a growing, increasingly confident insurgency as NATO troops withdraw, Afghanistan needs continued international support, including military, and the new government in Kabul will need to reinvigorate the state's commitment to the rule of law.
- Topic:
- NATO, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
9. Afghanistan's Political Transition
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Ashraf Ghani was inaugurated as president of Afghanistan on 29 September, under difficult circumstances. He inherited a government that is running out of money and losing ground to a rising insurgency. His ability to confront those problems and other challenges as foreign troops withdraw will be shaped by the aftermath of the political contest that brought him to power. Forming a national unity government with his election rival Abdullah Abdullah presents opportunities to stabilise the transition, preventing further erosion of state cohesiveness. Yet, it also poses risks, particularly of factionalism within Kabul, which could undermine urgently needed reforms. Given the international role in developing the agreements that have created this new partnership, and the absence of mechanisms to resolve internal differences, the international community should serve as a guarantor of Kabul's new political order and, if necessary, mediate any serious disputes that arise.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democratization, Islam, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
10. Resetting Pakistan's Relations with Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Pakistan's relations with Afghanistan have been largely characterised by mutual mistrust and devised through a narrow security prism. While it will require considerable effort to end deep-seated animosity, both countries share close ethnic, linguistic, religious and economic ties. Longstanding Afghan migration to the territories that now compose Pakistan makes them an integral part of Pakistani society. Yet, military-devised interventionist policies, based on perceived national security interests, including support for Afghan, mainly Pashtun, proxies, have marred the relationship. The incoming Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai has offered to expand bilateral ties, providing Islamabad fresh opportunities to improve the relationship. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has responded positively, but the Pakistani military and civilian leadership's preferences toward Kabul are diverging further as Afghanistan's transition draws closer. By recalibrating relations toward economic ties and seeking solutions to the presence of millions of Afghan refugees on its soil, Pakistan could engage more constructively with its neighbour.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and Central Asia
11. Women and Conflict in Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As the presidential election approaches in 2014, with the security transition at the year's end, Afghan women, including parliamentarians and rights activists, are concerned that the hard-won political, economic and social gains achieved since the U.S.-led intervention in 2001 may be rolled back or conceded in negotiations with the insurgents. Afghanistan's stabilisation ultimately rests on the state's accountability to all its citizens, and respect for constitutional, legal and international commitments, including to human rights and gender equality. There will be no sustainable peace unless there is justice, and justice demands that the state respect and protect the rights of women, half its population.
- Topic:
- NATO, Democratization, Development, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia
12. Afghanistan's Transition Meltdown
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Plagued by factionalism and corruption, Afghanistan is far from ready to assume responsibility for security when U.S. and NATO forces withdraw in 2014. That makes the political challenge of organising a credible presidential election and transfer of power from President Karzai to a successor that year all the more daunting. A repeat of previous elections' chaos and chicanery would trigger a constitutional crisis, lessening chances the present political dispensation can survive the transition. In the current environment, prospects for clean elections and a smooth transition are slim. The electoral process is mired in bureaucratic confusion, institutional duplication and political machinations. Electoral officials indicate that security and financial concerns will force the 2013 provincial council polls to 2014. There are alarming signs Karzai hopes to stack the deck for a favoured proxy. Demonstrating at least will to ensure clean elections could forge a degree of national consensus and boost popular confidence, but steps toward a stable transition must begin now to prevent a precipitous slide toward state collapse. Time is running out.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Ethnic Conflict, War, Insurgency, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
13. Toward a Political Settlement in Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A negotiated political settlement is a desirable outcome to the conflict in Afghanistan, but current talks with the Taliban are unlikely to result in a sustainable peace. There is a risk that negotiations under present conditions could further destabilise the country and region. Debilitated by internal political divisions and external pressures, the Karzai government is poorly positioned to cut a deal with leaders of the insurgency. Afghanistan's security forces are ill-prepared to handle the power vacuum that will occur following the exit of international troops. As political competition heats up within the country in the run-up to NATO's withdrawal of combat forces at the end of 2014, the differing priorities and preferences of the parties to the conflict – from the Afghan government to the Taliban leadership to key regional and wider international actors – will further undermine the prospects of peace. To avoid another civil war, a major course correction is needed that results in the appointment of a UN-mandated mediation team and the adoption of a more realistic approach to resolution of the conflict.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Treaties and Agreements, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban
14. Aid and Conflict in Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After a decade of major security, development and humanitarian assistance, the international community has failed to achieve a politically stable and economically viable Afghanistan. Despite billions of dollars in aid, state institutions remain fragile and unable to provide good governance, deliver basic services to the majority of the population or guarantee human security. As the insurgency spreads to areas regarded as relatively safe till now, and policymakers in Washington and other Western capitals seek a way out of an unpopular war, the international community still lacks a coherent policy to strengthen the state ahead of the withdrawal of most foreign forces by December 2014. The impact of international assistance will remain limited unless donors, particularly the largest, the U.S., stop subordinating programming to counter-insurgency objectives, devise better mechanisms to monitor implementation, adequately address corruption and wastage of aid funds, and ensure that recipient communities identify needs and shape assistance policies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, War, Foreign Aid, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
15. A Force in Fragments: Reconstituting the Afghan National Army
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- For nearly a decade, the Afghan military has been promoted as the cornerstone of counterinsurgency in the country. Billed as a rare success story in a conflict with few bright spots, the Afghan armed forces will undoubtedly prove pivotal to stabilising Afghanistan. Yet nine years after the fall of the Taliban, there appears to be little agreement between the government of President Hamid Karzai and its international backers on what kind of army the country needs, how to build it or which elements of the insurgency the Afghan army should be fighting. Persistent structural flaws meanwhile have undermined the military's ability to operate independently. Ethnic frictions and political factionalism among high-level players in the Ministry of Defence (MOD) and the general staff have also stunted the army's growth. As a result, the army is a fragmented force, serving disparate interests, and far from attaining the unified national character needed to confront numerous security threats. There is a strong need to strengthen civilian input into military development, confront corruption and factionalism within the MOD and general staff and to place sustainability of the armed forces at the forefront of Afghanistan's national security strategy.
- Topic:
- Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban
16. Afghanistan: Exit vs Engagement
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- U.S. military operations in Afghanistan are now entering their tenth year and policymakers in Washington are looking for a way out. A policy review is due in December but the outline is already clear: U.S. forces will try to pummel the Taliban to bring them to the table, responsibility for security will increasingly be transferred to Afghan forces and more money will be provided for economic development. NATO partners agreed at the Lisbon summit to a gradual withdrawal of combat troops with the goal of transitioning to full Afghan control of security by the end of 2014. The aim will be a dignified drawdown of troops as public support wanes while at the same time ensuring that a post-withdrawal Afghanistan, at the very least, does not become the epicentre of transnational terrorism. While success is being measured in numbers of insurgents killed or captured, there is little proof that the operations have disrupted the insurgency's momentum or increased stability. The storyline does not match facts on the ground.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Washington, Taliban, and Lisbon
17. Afghanistan: What Now for Refugees?
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As international efforts focus on the worsening insurgency in Afghanistan, the issues of refugee return and the mobility of Afghans in their country and around the region have been overshadowed. Meeting the needs of returnees and addressing population movements remain an essential part of finding a solution to the conflict. These issues must be better integrated into policymaking. They play a role in many of the sources of discontent that undermine the legitimacy of the government in Kabul – from land disputes to rising crime. Migration has a positive side as well since t hose living abroad sustain much of the economy, but a comprehensive approach to displacement and migration is needed, including better coordination among Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran, if the benefits are to start outweighing the risks.
- Topic:
- Security, War, and Refugee Issues
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iran, and Kabul
18. Afghanistan: Elections and the Crisis of Governance
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- President Hamid Karzai's re-election on 2 November 2009, following widespread fraud in the 20 August presidential and provincial polls, has delivered a critical blow to his government's legitimacy. The deeply flawed polls have eroded public confidence in the electoral process and in the international community's commitment to the country's nascent democratic institutions. Concentration of power in the executive to the exclusion of the legislature and judiciary has also resulted in a fundamental breakdown in governance while strengthening the hand of the insurgency. To restore stability, vigorous constitutional reform under the aegis of a loya jirga must be undertaken; an impartial commission of inquiry into the flawed elections should be formed; the UN Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) should be restructured to restore credibility; and prompt steps must be taken to strengthen institutions.
- Topic:
- Democratization, War, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
19. Tajikistan: On the Road to Failure
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Far from being a bulwark against the spread of extremism and violence from Afghanistan, Tajikistan is looking increasingly like its southern neighbour – a weak state that is suffering from a failure of leadership. Energy infrastructure is near total breakdown for the second winter running, and it is likely migrant labourer remittances, the driver of the country's economy in recent years, will fall dramatically as a result of the world economic crisis. President Emomali Rakhmon may be facing his greatest challenge since the civil war of 1992-97. At the very least the government will be confronted with serious economic problems, and the desperately poor population will be condemned to yet more deprivation. At worst the government runs the risk of social unrest. There are few indications that the Rakhmon administration is up to this challenge. To address the situation, the international community – both at the level of international organisations and governments – should ensure any assistance reaches those who truly need it, place issues of governance and corruption at the centre of all contacts with the Tajik government, and initiate an energetic dialogue with President Rakhmon on democratisation.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Government, Islam, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Asia, and Tajikistan
20. Pakistan: The Militant Jihadi Challenge
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The recent upsurge of jihadi violence in Punjab, the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Balochistan's provincial capital, Quetta, demonstrates the threat extremist Sunni-Deobandi groups pose to the Pakistani citizen and state. These radical Sunni groups are simultaneously fighting internal sectarian jihads, regional jihads in Afghanistan and India and a global jihad against the West. While significant domestic and international attention and resources are understandably devoted to containing Islamist militancy in the tribal belt, that the Pakistani Taliban is an outgrowth of radical Sunni networks in the country's political heartland is too often neglected. A far more concerted effort against Punjab-based Sunni extremist groups is essential to curb the spread of extremism that threatens regional peace and stability. As the international community works with Pakistan to rein in extremist groups, it should also support the democratic transition, in particular by reallocating aid to strengthening civilian law enforcement.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Globalization, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Asia, and Tribal Areas
21. Afghanistan: New U.S. Administration, New Directions
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Seven years after the U.S.-led intervention in Afghanistan the country is still at war against extremists and has developed few resilient institutions. A policy review by the Obama administration has reopened debate about how to defeat the forces of violent global jihadism – al-Qaeda and its Taliban protectors – in Afghanistan and in neighbouring Pakistan. In most cases, the ideas on offer – from declaring victory and pulling out, to negotiating with the insurgents, to organising regional conferences, to prioritising relationships with favoured individuals and allies over the development of strong democratic institutions – have been tried at least once in the past two decades, with no success: we know now what not to do.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia
22. Afghanistan's Election Challenges
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan's forthcoming elections, with presidential and provincial council polls on 20 August 2009, and National Assembly and district elections scheduled for 2010, present a formidable challenge if they are to produce widely accepted and credible results. The weakness of state institutions, the deteriorating security situation and the fractured political scene are all highlighted by – and will likely have a dramatic effect on – the electoral process. The years since the last poll saw the Afghan government and international community fail to embed a robust electoral framework and drive democratisation at all levels. This has made holding truly meaningful elections much more difficult. Rather than once again running the polls merely as distinct events, the enormous resources and attention focused on the elections should be channelled into strengthening political and electoral institutions, as a key part of the state-building efforts required to produce a stable country.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
23. Failed Responsibility: Iraqi Refugees in Syria, Jordan and Lebanon
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A refugee crisis was feared before the coalition invasion of Iraq in 2003, but it came later than anticipated, and on a greater scale. It started not because of the military action, but two years later, when American efforts to rebuild the country faltered, violence escalated, and civilians became the targets of insurgent groups and sectarian militias. And while exact numbers are uncertain, the scale of the problem is not in dispute: today, Iraq's refugee crisis – with some two and a half million outside the country and the same number internally displaced – ranks as the world's second in terms of numbers, preceded only by Afghanistan and ahead of Sudan. While the security situation in Iraq shows progress, the refugee crisis will endure for some time and could worsen if that progress proves fleeting.
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan
24. Taliban Propaganda: Winning the War of Words?
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Taliban has created a sophisticated communications apparatus that projects an increasingly confident movement. Using the full range of media, it is successfully tapping into strains of Afghan nationalism and exploiting policy failures by the Kabul government and its international backers. The result is weakening public support for nation-building, even though few actively support the Taliban. The Karzai government and its allies must make greater efforts, through word and deed, to address sources of alienation exploited in Taliban propaganda, particularly by ending arbitrary detentions and curtailing civilian casualties from aerial bombing.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Government, and Communications
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Asia, and Taliban
25. Policing in Afghanistan: Still Searching for a Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Police reform in Afghanistan is receiving more attention and resources than ever before, but such increased efforts are still yet to be matched by significant improvements in police effectiveness and public confidence. Too much emphasis has continued to be placed on using the police to fight the insurgency rather than crime. Corruption and political appointments are derailing attempts to professionalise the force. The government and the international community need to reinforce the International Policing Coordination Board (IPCB) as the central forum for prioritising efforts and drive forward with much greater unity of effort. Tangible steps such as appointing a career police commissioner and establishing community liaison boards will build professionalism and wider outreach. A national police force able to uphold the rule of law is crucial to state-building and would help tackle the root causes of alienation that drive the insurgency.
- Topic:
- Security and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
26. Political Murder in Central Asia: No Time to End Uzbekistan's Isolation
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- There are strong indications that Uzbek security forces murdered one of Kyrgyzstan's most prominent journalists, Alisher Saipov, in October 2007 during the build-up to Uzbekistan's end of year presidential elections, most likely because of his involvement in Erk (Freedom), a leading exile opposition party. If this is the case, it would appear that the security organs, which are the key to keeping President Islam Karimov in power, are increasingly willing to move against any perceived danger, even if it involves pre-emptive strikes in foreign territory. This may be a sign not only of the ruthlessness of the regime but also of its increasing fragility. At the least it underlines the need for the U.S. and the European Union (EU) to resist the temptation to respond to Karimov's dubious December 2007 re-election with efforts at re-engagement, in the apparent hope of regaining or retaining military bases for Afghanistan operations or of outflanking Russia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan
27. Afghanistan: The Need for International Resolve
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan is not lost but the signs are not good. Its growing insurgency reflects a collective failure to tackle the root causes of violence. Six years after the Taliban's ouster, the international community lacks a common diagnosis of what is needed to stabilise the country as well as a common set of objectives. Long-term improvement of institutions is vital for both state building and counterinsurgency, but without a more strategic approach, the increased attention and resources now directed at quelling the conflict could even prove counterproductive by furthering a tendency to seek quick fixes. Growing tensions over burden sharing risk undermining the very foundations of multilateralism, including NATO's future. The U.S., which is demanding more commitment by allies, must realise that its unilateral actions weaken the will of others. At the same time, those sniping from the sidelines need to recognise that the Afghan intervention is ultimately about global security and do more.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban
28. Cyprus: Reversing the Drift to Partition
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- One more major effort, strongly encouraged by the UN and European Union (EU), should be made in 2008 to resolve the long-running dispute between ethnic Greeks and Turks on Cyprus and achieve a comprehensive settlement to reunify the island. All sides have much to gain from such a settlement. For the Greek Cypriots, it would end lingering insecurity, give them access to the Turkish economy, the most dynamic in the region, and increase their service industry's value as an eastern Mediterranean hub. For Turkish Cypriots, it will mean being able to enjoy the benefits of EU citizenship of which they are presently largely deprived. For the EU, the unresolved Cyprus problem now hampers its functioning on issues as diverse as cooperation with NATO in Afghanistan and Chinese shoe imports. And for Turkey a settlement would overcome a major obstacle to its convergence with the EU.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Cyprus
29. Reforming Afghanistan's Police
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Policing goes to the very heart of state building, since a credible national institution that helps provide security and justice for the population is central to government legitimacy. However Afghanistan's citizens often view the police more as a source of fear than of security. Instead of emphasising their coercive powers, reform should focus on accountability, ethnic representation and professionalism, along with an urgent need to depoliticise and institutionalise appointments and procedures. It is counter-productive to treat police as an auxiliary fighting unit in battling the insurgency, as has been happening with increasing frequency in the troubled south. Afghanistan, like any other democracy, requires police service more than police force.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
30. Afghanistan's Endangered Compact
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- While the growing insurgency is attracting increasing attention, long-term efforts to build the solid governmental institutions a stable Afghanistan requires are faltering. Following conclusion of the Bonn process, which created the country's elected bodies, the Afghan government and the international community committed at the London Conference (31 January-1 February 2006) to the Afghanistan Compact, which identified “three critical and interdependent areas or pillars of activity” over five years: security; governance, rule of law and human rights; and social and economic development. The government signed on to realizing a “shared vision of the future” for a “stable and prosperous Afghanistan”, while over 60 nations and international institutions promised to provide the necessary resources and support. A year on, even those most closely associated with the process admit that the Compact has yet to have much impact. Afghans and internationals alike still need to demonstrate the political will to undertake deep-rooted institutional changes if the goals of this shared vision are to be met.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Asia, and London
31. Pakistan's Tribal Areas: Appeasing the Militants
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Taliban and other foreign militants, including al-Qaeda sympathisers, have sheltered since 2001 in Pakistan's Pashtun-majority Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), seven administrative districts bordering on south eastern Afghanistan. Using the region to regroup, reorganise and rearm, they are launching increasingly severe cross-border attacks on Afghan and international military personnel, with the support and active involvement of Pakistani militants. The Musharraf government's ambivalent approach and failure to take effective action is destabilising Afghanistan; Kabul's allies, particularly the U.S. and NATO, which is now responsible for security in the bordering areas, should apply greater pressure on it to clamp down on the pro-Taliban militants. But the international community, too, bears responsibility by failing to support democratic governance in Pakistan, including within its troubled tribal belt.
- Topic:
- Government and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Asia, Taliban, and Tribal Areas
32. Countering Afghanistan's Insurgency: No Quick Fixes
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Fierce battles rage in southern Afghanistan, insurgent attacks in the east creep towards the provinces surrounding Kabul and a new campaign of terrorist violence targets urban centres. The country's democratic government is not immediately threatened but action is needed now. This includes putting more international forces into the battle zones but insurgencies are never beaten by military means alone, and there are no quick fixes. Diplomatic pressure on Pakistan is needed, and the government of President Karzai must show political will to respond to internal discontent with serious efforts to attack corruption, work with the elected National Assembly and extend the rule of law by ending the culture of impunity. Afghanistan needs a renewed, long-term effort to build an effective, fair government that provides real security to its people.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Asia, and Kabul
33. Pakistan: The Worsening Conflict in Balochistan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- President Pervez Musharraf and the military are responsible for the worsening of the conflict in Balochistan. Tensions between the government and its Baloch opposition have grown because of Islamabad's heavy-handed armed response to Baloch militancy and its refusal to negotiate demands for political and economic autonomy. The killing of Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti in August 2006 sparked riots and will likely lead to more confrontation. The conflict could escalate if the government insists on seeking a military solution to what is a political problem and the international community, especially the U.S., fails to recognise the price that is involved for security in neighbouring Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Asia
34. Afghanistan's New Legislature: Making Democracy Work
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The new National Assembly has the potential to play a vital role in stabilising Afghanistan, entrenching pluralism, institutionalising political competition and giving voice to the country's diverse population. By being accountable to the Afghan people it can demand accountability of the presidential government. However, the success of this fledgling institution remains delicately poised, particularly because of the absence of a formal role for political parties, essential for mediating internal tensions. The lack of such organised blocs has seen power-brokers of past eras try to dominate proceedings. New moderate forces need to move quickly now to establish formal groups within the houses to ensure their voices are heard.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Development
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
35. Afghanistan Elections: Endgame or New Beginning?
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Elections for Afghanistan's National Assembly and Provincial Councils are a critical opportunity to achieve a sustainable peace in a country that is still emerging from a quarter century of conflict, created and exacerbated by ethnic, sectarian, regional and linguistic divisions. A representative and functional National Assembly could prove a crucial step in stabilising Afghanistan by allowing diversity of voices in decision-making. Provincial Councils could also help extend the authority of central government by introducing legally approved layers of devolution.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
36. Counter-Terrorism in Somalia: Losing Hearts and Minds?
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Nearly four years after 9/11 , hardly a day passes without the "war on terrorism" making headlines, with Iraq, Afghanistan, Indonesia and now London holding centre stage. But away from the spot light, a quiet, dirty conflict is being waged in Somalia: in the rubble-strewn streets of the ruined capital of this state without a government, Mogadishu, al-Qaeda operatives, jihadi extremists, Ethiopian security services and Western-backed counter-terrorism networks are engaged in a shadowy and complex contest waged by intimidation, abduction and assassination. The U.S. has had some success but now risks evoking a backlash. Ultimately a successful counter-terrorism strategy requires more attention to helping Somalia with the twin tasks of reconciliation and state building.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Iraq, Indonesia, Middle East, London, and Somalia
37. Elections and Security in Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Representatives of the Afghan government, the UN and the major donor countries and institutions will assemble in Berlin on 31 March and 1 April for the first high-level diplomatic meeting on Afghanistan in more than two years. The principal objective is to secure substantial long-term aid commitments -- the Afghan government seeks U.S.$27.6 billion over seven years. In addition to meeting this global figure, it will be important for donors to make multi-year pledges that provide a basis for predictability and to increase cash on hand for immediate projects over the coming year. All this is needed if Afghanistan's governance and security institutions are to be reconstructed, development goals met, and poverty alleviated.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and United Nations
38. Afghanistan: The Constitutional Loya Jirga
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- When delegates to Afghanistan's Constitutional Loya Jirga assemble in Kabul on 13 December 2003, they will begin debating and ultimately deciding upon a draft document that is intended to establish a strong presidency while accommodating the other dominant figures at the country's centre. It is a constitution, however, that for the most part would fail to provide meaningful democratic governance, including power-sharing, a system of checks and balances, or mechanisms for increasing the representation of ethnic, regional and other minority groups. The manner in which the draft has been prepared and publicised, as well as its content, raise serious questions about whether it can become the first constitution in Afghanistan's history to command genuinely deep popular support and, therefore, contribute to national stability.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Kabul
39. Iran: Discontent and Disarray
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Shirin Ebadi, a courageous human rights lawyer, has focused renewed attention on the deep divisions and tensions within Iran. How these work out, and how Iran defines its role in the world, will have a critical impact on a range of wider security issues, from Iraq and Afghanistan to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the future of nuclear non-proliferation.
- Topic:
- Security, Demographics, Development, Economics, Politics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, and Arabia
40. Disarmament and Reintegration in Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The domination of Afghanistan's political landscape by armed parties and individual commanders is still the principal obstacle to implementation of the political process that was agreed at the Bonn conference in late 2001. Without a credible process of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of former commanders and fighters into society (DR), it is inconceivable that any of the key elements of that political process - including the adoption of a new constitution, judicial reform, and elections - can be meaningfully implemented. More international engagement across the country - in the form of both security contributions and economic assistance - remains the essential ingredient.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, Economics, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
41. Peacebuilding in Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Tackling conflict and providing security in Afghanistan requires a greater effort to deal with local disputes that frequently flare into violence and lead to wider problems. Although these attract less attention than the threat from the resurgent Taliban, they are important as they produce an environment of insecurity which destroys all quality of life for ordinary civilians and undermines the legitimacy of the Afghan Transitional Administration in Kabul. Local commanders often exploit these disputes to consolidate their positions, further weakening the authority of the central government.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, Government, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Kabul
42. Afghanistan: The Problem of Pashtun
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Prospects for an enduring peace in Afghanistan are still fragile despite progress since the ouster of the Taliban in December 2001. A key obstacle is the perception of many ethnic Pashtuns that they lack meaningful representation in the central government, particularly in its security institutions. Other factors contributing to growing alienation from the Bonn political process include continued violence against Pashtuns in parts of the north and west, heavy-handed search operations and collaboration with abusive commanders by the U.S.-led Coalition, and impediments to trade in the southern and eastern provinces. Unless measures are taken to address these grievances and ensure that a more representative government emerges from the forthcoming election, there will be a greater likelihood of the political process ending in failure.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
43. Afghanistan's Flawed Constitutional Process
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan is stumbling on its way to a new constitution. The document that must express the values and aspirations of a people may lack widespread legitimacy because it has been drafted in a secretive and unaccountable manner. International efforts to promote public education and consultation have been inadequate. The Transitional Administration (TA) and the UN are now heading down a well-trodden path in Afghan history whereby a constitution is proclaimed but no one, let alone those in control of state power, has any incentive to respect it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
44. Afghanistan: Women and Reconstruction
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The establishment of an Interim Administration for Afghanistan during the Bonn talks in December 2001 was heralded as offering Afghan women a chance to claim their place in public life and participate in the country's development after systemic exclusion under the Taliban. Creation of a Ministry of Women's Affairs, the commitment of substantial donor assistance to programs targeting women, and, most critically, the return of women to universities, schools, and government offices all portended a new day.
- Topic:
- Development, Gender Issues, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban
45. Uzbekistan's Reform Program: Illusion or Reality?
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since October 2001, Uzbekistan has been a key ally of the U.S. in the military campaign in Afghanistan. A U.S. base has been established and a far-reaching Agreement on Strategic Partnership was signed in March 2002. Uzbekistan, however, sits uncomfortably in a campaign known as “Enduring Freedom.” It is one of the most authoritarian of the post-Soviet states, with a poor record on human rights and an economy that still owes much more to Soviet central planning than the market.
- Topic:
- Development and Government
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, and Uzbekistan
46. Afghanistan: Judicial Reform and Transitional Justice
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan's legal system has collapsed. Never strong to begin with, it has been nearly destroyed by 23 years of conflict and misrule. There are few trained lawyers, little physical infrastructure and no complete record of the country's laws. Under successive regimes, laws have been administered for mostly political ends with few protections of the rights of individuals to a fair trial. Although the country has signed up to most international agreements on human rights, abuses have been widespread, and military commanders have enjoyed impunity.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
47. The Afghan Transitional Administration: Prospects and Perils
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Emergency Loya Jirga, or grand national assembly, held from 10 to 21 June 2002 in Kabul was a small but critical step in Afghanistan's political development. It was an opportunity to accord national legitimacy to the peace process begun at Bonn in November 2001 but it produced mixed results. From a narrow perspective, it was a success: representatives from across Afghanistan came together to elect, or rather anoint, a head of state, and the major armed factions kept their hats in the political ring rather than resort to violence. Given the last three decades of war and turmoil, this is significant.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
48. Central Asia: Water and Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Competition for water is increasing in Central Asia at an alarming rate, adding tension to what is already an uneasy region. Agriculture is the mainstay of the region's economy, and thirsty crops such as cotton and rice require intensive irrigation. Water use has increased rapidly since the Central Asian states became independent in 1991 and is now at an unsustainable level. Irrigation systems have decayed so severely that half of all water never reaches crops, and several years of drought have cut available water by a fifth even as demand continues to soar. Efforts to rebuild Afghanistan will now put yet more strain on supplies.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
49. The Loya Jirga: One Small Step Forward?
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The immensity of the task of rebuilding Afghanistan into something resembling a coherent state cannot be over-estimated. Nearly three decades of political instability – including many years of savage warfare, the wholesale destruction of political and physical infrastructure and the inflammation of ethnic divisions – are layered on top of a nation that was among the poorest and weakest governed even in its "golden age" before King Zahir Shah was deposed in 1973. Afghanistan's transition back to a minimum level of political and economic stability will require many small but crucial steps to keep it on course.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
50. Pakistan: The Dangers of Conventional Wisdom
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With the continuing military campaign in Afghanistan, the international community has fundamentally shifted its policies toward Pakistan. The government of President Pervez Musharraf has been repeatedly praised as a key ally in the war against terrorism, and the U.S. alone has indicated that it will offer Pakistan more than one billion dollars in assistance. This briefing explores some of the most important dynamics underpinning the international community's revised approach to Pakistan and suggests that much of the conventional wisdom relies on dangerously faulty assumptions with important implications for future policy and regional security.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and War
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and South Asia
51. The IMU and the Hizb-ut-Tahrir: Implications of the Afghanistan Campaign
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001 and the U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan have intensified the scrutiny of Islamist movements across Central Asia. Of such movements, two – the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami (“Party of Islamic Liberation”) – have been of greatest concern to the governments of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and to the broader international community.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan