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2. Renewed Escalation: Why Does Al-Shabab Attack Kenya?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The Somali-based al-Shabab al-Mujahideen movement has stepped up its terrorist attacks on neighboring countries, chiefly Kenya. Such attacks have receded over the past three years, amid the movement’s focus on targeting police and military forces in Somalia. However, the recent terrorist operation launched by the movement’s affiliates in the capital, Nairobi, on January 15, 2018, which hit the Dusit-D2 complex, housing a hotel and offices, killing around 15 people and injuring a similar number, raises numerous questions about the motives behind targeting Kenya again. This comes at the time when numerous analysts suggest that the movement will more likely intensify internal assaults on the Somali security and military institutions with the aim of consolidating its influence and curtailing the activity of rival groups.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Al Shabaab
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Somalia, and Africa
3. The Last Option: Impact of the Battle for Idlib on the Syrian Conflict
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Idlib has been the delayed battle in the Syrian conflict throughout its various stages, but this seems to be coming to an end, as many indicators reveal. For example, Russia, for the time being, is keen to resolve Idlib’s issue which would reinforce the specter of military intervention. Moscow indicates that there are no options left for the parties to the Sochi agreement, pointing also to the difficulty of implementing its terms. The 10 points-agreement has not achieved its purpose for five months, given the terrorist organizations’ control over the area, in particular al-Nusra Front. This happens amid lack of actions from the Turkish side, which has threatened, more than once, to deter those who jeopardize the agreement, which compelled it to agree, ostensibly, with the other parties on launching a military offensive in Idlib. Despite the challenges and consequences of this option, it is the scenario that looms large over the Syrian scene at present.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Idlib
4. Consequences of Alignment: Why do Qatar and Turkey oppose designating the Pasdaran as a terror group?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Qatar and Turkey were quick to express their opposition to the US designation, on April 8, 2019, of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization. This stance cannot be separated from Doha and Ankara's perception of the repercussions that such a move could have on their position on various regional crises or the bilateral relations with Iran, which appear to be heading toward difficult challenges. The most critical of these challenge are the continuous pressures it faces at home and abroad. This could spell serious problems for Qatar and Turkey if they insist on siding with Iran in the coming period.
- Topic:
- Economics, Terrorism, Sanctions, Alliance, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC)
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Tehran, Qatar, Ankara, and Doha
5. Continued Confrontations: Will ISIS Employ New Terrorist Tactics?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Despite that ISIS may have dealt with heavy blows, whether in the previously-dominated areas or the emerging ones, it is still able to stage terrorist attacks by employing various tactics, key among them the “lone- wolves” and “sleeper cells”. This has been evident in the recent terrorist operations in many countries, such as Tunisia and Morocco, as well as several European countries, which ISIS have threatened to target by using explosive belts, car-ramming and stabbing during Christmas holidays. Notably, some of such attacks have been carried out using tactics and methods that have not been widely used in the past. This raises questions about the ideological transformations that ISIS, its sleeper cells and sub-groups may have witnessed, given the new realities brought about by the war on the organization.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, and Islamic State
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
6. A Reversal: Will al-Qaeda’s Influence Recede in the Coming Period?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Al-Qaeda has sought to exploit the 17th anniversary of the events of 11 September 2001 to assert its survival and ability to stay at the forefront of terrorist organizations worldwide. In doing so, it seems to be trying to cover up the multiple challenges facing it at the present stage, which may cause its influence to diminish in the medium and long term. Thus, it cannot be ruled out that the fears expressed by many of its leaders over the organization declining influence is the main factor that prompted Ayman al-Zawahiri to increase the media messages he sends to the organization cadres and members along with other organizations, especially its rivals, as well as the international and regional powers concerned with combating terrorism. It is a remarkable shift from what happened in the past years, which witnessed a relatively limited appearance of al-Zawahiri to comment on events with the aim of proving that he is still alive and interacting developments. The new development raises many questions about the significance of the flurry of messages, particularly that they come at a time the region is witnessing numerous important variables with profound impacts, such as the receding influence of the pro-al-Qaeda groups in Syria against the backdrop of the recent security and political arrangements.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, and Al Qaeda
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, Syria, and Maghreb
7. Numerous Factors: Why is ISIS trying to make a comeback to its previous strongholds?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- ISIS seems to be intent on returning to the areas from which it was driven out or its influence has receded over the past period, such as Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor in Syria. The two cities have recently witnessed a remarkable activity by ISIS, which is evident in the organization’s terrorist attacks against its opponents, raising many concerns that it may further expand, taking advantage of impasse over the Syrian crisis and the increasing security troubles in those areas.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Islamic State, Conflict, and Ideology
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
8. Renewed Escalation: Will the Sleeper Cells Make a Comeback to Tunisia?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The suicide bombing in Tunisia which occurred near a security patrol on Habib Bourguiba Avenue in the Tunisian capital, on October 29, 2018, injuring 20 people, including 15 policemen, marks a new shift in terrorist operations in the country. The latest terrorist operation was carried out in November 2015, when ISIS targeted a security patrol in the center of the capital, which suggest that the repercussions of the defeats of terrorist organizations, particularly ISIS, in both Syria and Iraq, began to spill over to Tunisia, which showed particular interest in the developments of military operations against these groups, and has increased the level of coordination with the many international powers involved in confronting them.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Sleeper Cells
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, North America, and Tunisia
9. Clear Confusion: Why Have Iranians Begun to Promote ISIS’ Account of the Ahwaz Attack?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The raging controversy in Iran over the identity of the group that carried out the attack on the military parade in the city of Ahvaz on September 22, 2018, has not abated. Although many Iranians continue to believe that one of the Arab armed groups in Ahvaz is responsible for that operation, others have begun to promote the notion that ISIS was behind this attack, the second of its kind after the first twin attack on the shrine of Khomeini and the administrative building of the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Parliament), on June 7, 2017, for which ISIS claimed responsibility.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, and Hassan Rouhani
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
10. Will Low-Cost Terror Financing Spread in the Middle East?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The international community’s e orts have recently succeeded in reducing the sources of funding of many terror organizations in the Middle East. ISIS is one instance, where the military operations launched by a US- led global coalition since September 2014, have signi cantly reduced the terrorist group’s funds generated from oil sales and illicit trade and caused huge losses.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East