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1. Post-Crisis Japanese Nuclear Policy: From Top-Down Directives to Bottom-Up Activism

Author:
David P. Aldrich
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Over the past fifty years, Japan has developed one of the most advanced commercial nuclear power programs in the world. This is largely due to the government's broad repertoire of policy instruments that have helped further its nuclear power goals. These top-down directives have resulted in the construction of 54 plants and at least the appearance of widespread support for nuclear power. By the 1990s, however, this carefully cultivated public support was beginning to break apart. And following the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 and resulting nuclear crisis in the Fukushima nuclear complex, the political and social landscape for energy in Japan has been dramatically altered. The crisis has raised and reinforced environmental concerns and health fears, as well as skepticism about information from government and corporate sources. A civil society that for decades has appeared weak and nonpartcipatory has awakened and citizens are carrying out bottom-up responses to the accident, effecting change with grassroots science and activism.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Health, Natural Disasters, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Japan and Israel

2. An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects Under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model

Author:
ZhongXiang Zhang, Lei Zhu, and Ying Fan
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, the model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled the model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In the empirical setting, China was selected as an investor country and Indonesia as an investee country as a case study. The results show that the investment risks and project values of small sized oil fields are more sensitive to changes in the uncertainty factors than the large and medium sized oil fields. Furthermore, among the uncertainty factors considered in the model, the investment risk of overseas oil investment may be underestimated if no consideration is given of the impacts of exchange rate and investment environment. Finally, as there is an important tradeoff between oil resource investee country and overseas oil investor, in medium and small sized oil investment negotiation the oil company should try to increase the cost oil limit in production sharing contract and avoid the term of a windfall profits tax to reduce the investment risk of overseas oil fields.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, and Israel

3. Why Science Alone Won't Solve the Climate Crisis: Managing Climate Risks in the Pacific

Author:
Melissa L. Finucane
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Pacific Islands are extraordinarily vulnerable to the effects of climate change. And although policymakers are turning to science to answer questions of how communities should deal with climate challenges, scientific knowledge is only one element of an effective risk-management process. The people of the Pacific Islands hold diverse beliefs about climate change and these beliefs inform their decisions. In addition, a dynamic social context influences the extent to which people are able to respond meaningfully to climate impacts. To solve the climate crisis, policymakers need to set a risk-management agenda that integrates sound science with an understanding of how that science is interpreted and translated into action in society. They will need to work not only with scientists, but also with cultural leaders, theologians, philosophers, and community groups. Lessons learned in the Pacific region, along with broader knowledge about factors affecting human decisionmaking, illustrate how policymakers can bridge the gap between climate science and society to facilitate adaptation.
Topic:
Climate Change and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Israel, Asia, and Australia/Pacific