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22. Follow the External (Balance of Payments) Breakevens of the Oil Exporters
- Author:
- Brad W. Setser
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The global impact of oil’s fall from $100 plus to under $50 a barrel has not gotten as much attention as I think it deserves. For most oil exporters, it has been a profound shock—one that forced such a massive contraction in imports that it pulled down global trade (far more than the trade remedies that tend to dominate the ‘trade” news). A few countries adjusted quickly and relatively efficiently (Russia), though not painlessly. A few have struggled to adapt—notably, because of its large external debt, poor policies, and growing political crisis, Venezuela.
- Topic:
- Oil and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
23. Southeast Asian Perspectives on U.S.–China Competition
- Author:
- Aaron Connely
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- In April 2016, the Lowy Institute and the Council on Foreign Relations' International Institutions and Global Governance program held a workshop on Southeast Asian perspectives on U.S.–China competition, which informed this publication. That workshop was made possible in part by the generous support of the Robina Foundation. This report is a collaboration between the Lowy Institute and the Council on Foreign Relations. The views expressed in this report are entirely the authors' own and not those of the Lowy Institute, the Council on Foreign Relations, or the Robina Foundation.
- Topic:
- Governance and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and America
24. Managing a Smaller U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
- Author:
- Jennifer Harris
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Comprising roughly 700 million barrels of crude oil stored in caverns throughout Texas and Louisiana, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was established by Congress in the mid-1970s in response to the 1973–74 Arab oil embargo and ensuing oil price shocks. Its purpose was to insulate the United States from crude oil supply disruptions. In the decades since, despite significant changes in global oil markets, the basic logic and design of the SPR have remained largely unchanged.
- Topic:
- Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- America
25. Interactive: Oil Exporters' External Breakeven Prices
- Author:
- Brad Sester and Cole Frank
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The 2014 fall in global oil prices, from over $100 a barrel to around $50 a barrel, reduced the export proceeds of the world’s main oil- and gas-exporting economies by about $1 trillion. After a decade of largely uninterrupted high oil prices, this dramatic swing has tested the economic resiliency and political adaptability of oil-exporting countries. One of the best single measures of the resilience of an oil- or gas-exporting economy is the oil price that covers its import bill—the external breakeven price.
- Topic:
- Oil and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- America
26. Geostrategic Implications of China’s Twin Economic Challenges
- Author:
- William Norris
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The Chinese government has embarked on an effort to reorient its economy from an investment- and export-driven model toward one predicated on a larger role for consumption and market forces. At the same time, China is also experiencing a new normal of much slower economic growth. The economic downturn and concomitant structural shift in China’s economy has already begun affecting its foreign policy. Security, not economics, is becoming one of President Xi Jinping’s—and China’s—top strategic priorities.
- Topic:
- Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China
27. The Case for Reforming Section 702 of U.S. Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Law
- Author:
- Laura K. Donohue
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- On December 31, 2017, section 702 of the 2008 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Amendments Act (FAA) will expire. Section 702 governs the domestic interception of foreigners’ communications, when the targets are believed to be outside the United States. Although externally directed, this statute is being used by agencies to monitor, collect, and search U.S. citizens’ communications for foreign intelligence and criminal activity. Congress has an opportunity to amend section 702 to safeguard U.S. national security, protect citizens, and comply with the Constitution.
- Topic:
- Global Security
- Political Geography:
- America
28. Council of Councils Sixth Annual Conference
- Author:
- The Council of councils
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- On May 7–9, 2017, the Council on Foreign Relations hosted the sixth annual conference of the Council of Councils. The conference was made possible by the generous support of the Robina Foundation for CFR’s International Institutions and Global Governance program. The views described here are those of workshop participants only and are not CFR or Robina Foundation positions. The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government. In addition, the suggested policy prescriptions are the views of individual participants and do not necessarily represent a consensus of the attending members.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
29. Lessons From Guatemala’s Commission Against Impunity
- Author:
- Matthew Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Guatemala has made notable gains in the fight against corruption and impunity in the last decade. President Otto Perez Molina resigned in 2015 and was tried and jailed on charges of corruption, alongside his vice president and several ministers. Several prominent criminal figures have been extradited to the United States, including another former president, Alfonso Portillo. Supreme Court justices and members of congress have been removed from office, drug lords jailed, and extortion rings dismantled. The overall impunity rate for homicides fell from 95 percent to 72 percent [PDF] between 2006 and 2012.
- Topic:
- Corruption, International Security, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Guatemala
30. Building Inclusive Economies How Women’s Economic Advancement Promotes Sustainable Growth
- Author:
- Gayle Tzemach Lemmon and Rachel B. Vogelstein
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The connection between women’s economic participation and prosperity is undeniable. Over the past two decades, a growing number of international organizations and world leaders have recognized that the economic empowerment of women is critical to economic growth and stability. Multilateral bodies such as the Group of Twenty and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum have ratified agreements to promote women in the economy as a means to stimulate growth, and governments from the Ivory Coast to Rwanda to Japan have adopted reforms to increase women’s ability to contribute to their economies
- Topic:
- Gender Issues and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
31. A New Deal for the Twenty-First Century
- Author:
- Edward Alden and Robert Litan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The challenge of how to help those left behind by rapid economic change—whether caused by technology or global competition—has moved to the center of the U.S. national debate in a way it has not been since the 1930s. Trade competition, especially from China, has been a significant factor in declining U.S. manufacturing employment over the past decade. Trade also became a major issue in the 2016 presidential campaign, despite the larger role played by automation and technological change in displacing manufacturing workers for decades. This process will only continue in coming years, with advances in robotics, artificial intelligence, and software that will eliminate many jobs while creating others, regardless of what policies the federal government may adopt toward trade and outsourcing.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America
32. Harnessing International Cooperation to Advance Energy Innovation
- Author:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- On March 29 and 30, the Council on Foreign Relations convened a workshop in New York to explore how international cooperation can accelerate energy innovation. The workshop, hosted by Douglas Dillon Fellow and Acting Director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program Varun Sivaram, was made possible by the support of the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. The views described here are those of workshop participants only and are not CFR or Sloan Foundation positions. CFR takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
33. Increasing the Use of Natural Gas in the Asia-Pacific Region
- Author:
- Ian Cronshaw
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Increased use of natural gas in the Asia-Pacific region could bring substantial local and global benefits. Countries in the region could take advantage of newly abundant global gas supplies to diversify their energy mix; the United States, awash in gas supplies thanks to the fracking revolution, could expand its exports; and climate change could slow as a result of gas displacing coal in rapidly growing economies.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific
34. Managing Global Disorder: Prospects for U.S.-Russian Cooperation
- Author:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- While relations between the United States and Russia have deteriorated in recent years, making it exceedingly difficult for both countries to collaborate in managing a variety of common concerns, emerging challenges to global order make such cooperation increasingly imperative. To explore where U.S.-Russia cooperation is desirable and, in some places, even necessary, the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations convened an international group of twenty-three experts at the Tufts University European Center in Talloires, France, on June 9 and 10, 2017, for the workshop “Managing Global Disorder: Prospects for U.S.-Russian Cooperation.”
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and North America
35. How Anonymous Shell Companies Finance Insurgents, Criminals, and Dictators
- Author:
- Jodi Vittori
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The Panama Papers leak of eleven million documents in April 2016 revealed that former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, the brother-in-law of Chinese President Xi Jinping, longtime friends of Russian President Vladimir Putin, drug kingpins, and even a soccer megastar had something in common: they all channeled money through anonymous shell companies. Anonymous shell companies are entities that usually employ few or no workers, do not conduct any substantive business, and allow their owners to store or route money while hiding their identities. Because of the secrecy they can provide, anonymous companies represent an important nexus of corruption, money laundering, transnational organized crime, and terrorism, which directly harm U.S. interests. As one of the main facilitators of anonymous companies, the United States should pass legislation to disclose ownership information for all companies, increase federal contract transparency, and boost other business and government transparency mechanisms at home and abroad. Doing so would significantly cut back on the ability of terrorists, criminals, and their ilk to use American corporations, real estate, and trusts to finance activities that harm the United States and its foreign interests.
- Topic:
- Corruption, International Trade and Finance, Transparency, and Panama Papers
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
36. Innovations in Global Governance
- Author:
- Miles Kahler and Deborah Avant
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Over the last three decades, a diverse collection of actors—private corporations, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and subnational (state, provincial, and urban) governments—has developed and promoted a global agenda of collective action. From advancing human rights to combating climate change, these actors have become new governors in world politics. More recently, a second movement—a loose array of populist and nationalist groups and governments—has questioned the forward momentum of institutionalized global cooperation. Brexit, followed by the Donald J. Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Agreement on climate change, as well as proposed cuts in U.S. contributions to the United Nations and development assistance, suggest a weakening—if not undermining—of the network of treaties, institutions, and relationships constructed over the last seventy years. Each of these movements aims to transform a global order based on intergovernmental agreements and institutions. The first movement has already done so by increasing participation in global governance of new actors who are pursuing cooperative outcomes in collaboration with and independently of national governments and intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). Their involvement both complements and complicates the traditional international order. The second movement, in contrast, asserts national interest and sovereignty against the constraints of global governance. Although the conflict between these two movements remains unresolved, they will likely shape the future global order.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Human Rights, Governance, and NGOs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
37. What the Trump Administration’s NAFTA Priorities Get Right (and Wrong) About Digital Trade
- Author:
- Anupam Chander
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Digital commerce and trade are increasingly important to the global economy. Seven of the ten most valuable firms today are technology companies (Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Alibaba, and Tencent). Data, according to some analysts, is the new oil. A major study concluded that the internet has powered some one-fifth of recent economic growth within the leading economies. Jobs are increasingly dependent on digitization; digital skills are needed for all but two job categories [PDF] in the United States: dishwashing and food cooking. Just as national economies are becoming more digitized, barriers to digital trade are being erected. These barriers limit opportunities for consumers to access global providers and for small- and medium-sized enterprises to reach new customers. It is not only technology firms that suffer; all enterprises with international operations need cross-border data flows to process, analyze, and transfer data about employees, customers, and operations. Global supply chains depend on the flow of goods, data, and services across borders. Moreover, commitment to the free flow of information across borders is essential to freedom of expression. Digital trade is about more than access to markets; it is about access to information. The renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is an excellent opportunity to set the gold standard for digital free trade. Despite public pronouncements about the harm free trade causes to the steel and automobile industries, the Donald J. Trump administration, to its credit, recognizes the importance of removing digital trade barriers in its stated objectives for the NAFTA renegotiation [PDF]. In its negotiations with Canada and Mexico, the Trump administration should seek rules limiting data localization, promote a balanced approach to intellectual property protections, support cross-border privacy rules, and remove barriers that hinder the trade of services.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Digital Economy, and NAFTA
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico
38. Countering Sexual Violence in Conflict
- Author:
- Jamille Bigio and Rachel Vogelstein
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Armies and armed groups often subject noncombatants—particularly women and children—to conflict-related sexual violence, such as rape, sexual slavery, and forced marriage. Despite international recognition of this devastating abuse as a crime against humanity, sexual violence continues to plague conflicts from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to Syria. This practice has also proliferated among extremist groups, including Boko Haram in Nigeria and the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Additionally, sexual violence has tarnished the operations of peacekeepers charged with protecting civilians, thereby undermining the integrity and effectiveness of international peacekeeping institutions across the globe. Sexual violence in conflict is not simply a gross violation of human rights—it is also a security challenge. Wartime rape fuels displacement, weakens governance, and destabilizes communities, thereby inhibiting postconflict reconciliation and imperiling long-term stability. Combating conflict-related sexual violence merits a higher place on the U.S. foreign policy agenda. Although the U.S. government has taken modest steps to address sexual violence in conflict under successive Republican and Democratic administrations, more action is needed. To counter such violence, the Donald J. Trump administration should require training on conflict-related sexual violence in U.S. security cooperation efforts; expand the number of women serving in militaries, police, and peacekeeping forces around the world; increase accountability for the crime of sexual violence; and undermine terrorist financing streams raised through the abduction of women and children. These steps will help the United States and its allies respond effectively to the security threat posed by conflict-related sexual violence and advance U.S. interests in peace and stability.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Gender Based Violence, Conflict, and Sexual Violence
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Syria, Nigeria, and Congo
39. Chinese Investment in Critical U.S. Technology: Risks to U.S. Security Interests
- Author:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Chinese firms, both private and state-owned, have in recent years invested billions of dollars in the U.S. technology industry, raising concerns that a powerful rival has gained or could soon gain access to sensitive and, in some cases, critical technologies that underpin American military superiority and economic might. At the workshop entitled “Chinese Investment in Critical U.S. Technology: Risks to U.S. Security Interests,” held in San Francisco, on July 18, 2017, CFR convened nearly thirty current and former government officials, academics, bankers, investors, and corporate executives to explore whether the large and growing early-stage Chinese investment in critical U.S. technology poses a threat to U.S. national security, and, if so, to outline policies that mitigate the risks of unbridled Chinese investment and to bolster U.S. competitiveness.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and North America
40. China and the U.S.-ROK Alliance: Promoting a Trilateral Dialogue
- Author:
- Heung-kyu Kim
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- As the Republic of Korea faces an increasing threat from North Korea, evolving U.S.-China relations are becoming important to Seoul’s strategy for dealing with Pyongyang. The United States and China are competitors, but they also seek cooperation on a range of global issues. And although South Korea seeks to have good relations with both great powers, it is increasingly being pushed to take sides in the ongoing U.S.-China competition. As the U.S.-China relationship becomes more complex, South Korea needs to carefully evaluate its policy toward China in order to find the best ways to ensure Chinese cooperation on the North Korean issue, particularly taking into account China’s evolving view of North Korea. Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, China is profoundly changing its foreign policy, including its relations with the United States and the two Koreas. With more confidence in its own diplomatic, military, and economic capacity to protect its national interests, China under Xi’s leadership has begun to regard the entire Korean Peninsula as part of its sphere of influence.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea