Publishing Institution: Council on Foreign Relations / Topic:

601. Climate Change and National Security: An Agenda for Action

Author:: Joshua W. Busby
Publication Date:: 11-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: When Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans in 2005, Americans witnessed on their own soil what looked like an overseas humanitarian-relief operation. The storm destroyed much of the city, causing more than $80 billion in damages, killing more than 1,800 people, and displacing in excess of 270,000. More than 70,000 soldiers were mobilized, including 22,000 active duty troops and 50,000-plus members of the National Guard (about 10 percent of the total Guard strength). Katrina also had severe effects on critical infrastructure, taking crude oil production and refinery capacity off-line for an unprecedented length of time. At a time when the United States was conducting military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, the country suddenly had to divert its attention and military resources to respond to a domestic emergency.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, and Development
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and America

602. Planning for Post-Mugabe Zimbabwe

Author:: Michelle D. Gavin
Publication Date:: 10-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Over the past decade, the refusal of President Robert Mugabe and his Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) ruling party to tolerate challenges to their power has led them to systematically dismantle the most effective workings of Zimbabwe's economic and political systems, replacing these with structures of corruption, patronage, and repression. The resulting 80 percent unemployment rate, hyperinflation, and severe food, fuel, and power shortages have created a national climate of desperation and instability. Meanwhile, often-violent repression has left the opposition divided and eroded public confidence in mechanisms to effect peaceful political change.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Development
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

603. The Economic Logic of Illegal Immigration

Author:: Gordon H. Hanson
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Illegal immigration is a source of mounting concern for politicians in the United States. In the past ten years, the U.S. population of illegal immigrants has risen from five million to nearly twelve million, prompting angry charges that the country has lost control over its borders. Congress approved measures last year that have significantly tightened enforcement along the U.S.-Mexico border in an effort to stop the flow of unauthorized migrants, and it is expected to make another effort this year at the first comprehensive reform of immigration laws in more than twenty years.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Latin America, and Mexico

604. The Case for Wage Insurance

Author:: Robert LaLonde
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: An important component of U.S. productivity growth and economic competitiveness is a flexible labor market that shifts workers quickly into the jobs where they are most needed. Much of the time, this job shifting is fairly painless: Workers quickly find new positions that pay at least as much as their previous ones, often without an intervening spell of unemployment. But prime-aged and older workers can sometimes suffer large, long-term income losses. Such workers' well-founded fears about job displacement lead them and their advocates to resist policies such as free trade that are sometimes blamed for the job shifting. This resistance harms the majority of households because trade helps to lower prices, raise real incomes and promote economic growth. It also has foreign policy consequences since it threatens the United States' ability to play its traditional post–World War II role as the bulwark of a relatively open international trading system. And by reducing the dynamism of the U.S. economy, resistance to trade and other pro-growth policies can weaken the nation's long-term ability to exert global leadership.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:: United States

605. Burma: Time for a Change

Author:: Mathea Falco
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: On May 30, 2003, the Burmese military regime orchestrated violent attacks by progovernment militia on Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD), and her supporters as they traveled outside Mandalay. At least four of her bodyguards were killed, as were a significant number of others. She has been in prison since then. Following the attacks, the regime arrested more than 100 democracy activists, imprisoned at least a dozen, shut down NLD offices across the country, and closed schools and universities. This is the bloodiest confrontation between Burma's military rulers and democracy supporters since 1988, when the government suppressed a popular uprising against the regime and thousands were killed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Democratization
Political Geography:: Asia and Burma

606. Toward an Angola Strategy

Author:: Vincent A. Mai, Frank G. Wisner, William L. Nash, and ArthurMark Rubin
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Outside the continent's crisis areas, few African countries are more important to U.S. interests than Angola. The second-largest oil producer in Africa, Angola's success or failure in transitioning from nearly thirty years of war toward peace and democracy has implications for the stability of the U.S. oil supply as well as the stability of central and southern Africa. Consequently, the United States has an interest in helping Angola address its numerous and significant national challenges.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and Angola

607. Reform of the International Monetary Fund

Author:: Peter B. Kenen
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is undertaking a wide-ranging reform of its governance and operations within a framework proposed by Rodrigo de Rato, its managing director. The proposed reform is inspired in large part by the emergence of large middle-income developing countries such as China and India, which now play a major role in the world economy but are underrepresented in the Fund as the low-income developing countries. The proposed reform is also inspired by the need to simplify the Fund's internal practices and focus more intensively on its basic mandate: to “oversee the development of the international monetary system in order to ensure its effective operation.”
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and India

608. Nigeria: Elections and Continuing Challenges

Author:: Robert I. Rotberg
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Nigeria's vital importance for Africa's political development, for U.S. and European interests, and for world order cannot be exaggerated. Nigeria's sheer aggregate numbers—possibly as many as 150 million of the full continent's 800 million—and its proportionate weight in sub-Saharan Africa' s troubled affairs, make the country's continuing evolution from military dictatorship to stable, sustained democracy critical.
Topic:: Democratization and Economics
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Nigeria

609. Nuclear Energy: Balancing Benefits and Risks

Author:: Charles D. Ferguson
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: According to a prevailing belief, humanity confronts two stark risks: catastrophes caused by climate change and annihilation by nuclear war. The conventional wisdom also believes that the former danger appears far more certain than the latter. This assessment has recently led an increasing number of policymakers, pundits, businesspeople, and environmentalists to advocate a major expansion of nuclear energy, which emits very few greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. While acknowledging the connection between nuclear fuel making and nuclear bomb building, nuclear power proponents suggest that nuclear proliferation and terrorism risks are readily manageable. Consequently, some of these advocates favor the use of subsidies to stimulate substantial growth of nuclear power.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

610. U.S.-China Relations

Author:: Dennis C. Blair, Carla A. Hills, and Frank Sampson Jannuzi
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: President Richard M. Nixon reached out to the People's Republic of China thirty-five years ago to advance U.S. strategic interests by balancing the Soviet Union and reinforcing the split between two former communist allies. Nixon and his national security adviser, Henry Kissinger, briefed the Chinese on Soviet forces arrayed against China and also discussed the Vietnam War and Taiwan. Nixon and Kissinger sought to change the global U.S. stance from confrontation to détente and to extricate the United States from the Vietnam War. Their mission shifted the globe's geopolitical landscape.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Vietnam

611. The United States and the WTO Dispute Settlement System

Author:: Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The United States likes to think of itself as a nation that abides by its treaties and commitments. Successive U.S. administrations have taken the obligations implied by international agreements seriously: They have opted out of parts of many agreements for fear that compliance would be contrary to U.S. interests, and have refused outright to sign some treaties on the grounds of potential legal exposure. But U.S. behavior toward the World Trade Organization is different; in this case, the United States has been quite willing to accept binding multilateral rules. Yet, the United States has also been repeatedly judged to be in violation of its WTO commitments by the organization's dispute settlement panels, and although some violations could be ascribed to uncertainties about the meaning of the rules, the United States is also guilty of disregarding the rules deliberately. Opinion in Congress sometimes encourages this behavior; legislators are less likely to question the legitimacy of U.S. conduct than to question the WTO's authority to pass judgment over the United States. Moreover, these tensions are likely to escalate if the Doha Round of global trade negotiations breaks down. If the diplomatic route to market access is blocked, trading partners will seek access to U.S. consumers by bringing more cases before the WTO's tribunals. A surge in such cases could increase resentment of the WTO in the United States, weakening America's commitment to its traditional postwar role as the bulwark of the international trading system. This would be unfortunate, because even without changes in the behavior of its trading partners, the rules of the WTO improve the performance of the U.S. economy.
Topic:: International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States and America

612. Somalia's Future

Author:: Jennifer Cooke and David Henek
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: On January 17, 2007, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in collaboration with the Council on Foreign Relations, the U.S. Institute of Peace, and the Woodrow Wilson International Center, hosted a major conference in Washington, D.C., entitled "Somalia's Future: Options for Diplomacy, Assistance, and Peace Operations." The conference brought together expert observers from Mogadishu, senior U.S. policymakers, representatives from humanitarian assistance organizations, and regional analysts to convey to a U.S. audience the current situation in Somalia and to lay out the challenges facing the United States and the broader international community.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and Somalia

613. Bolivia on the Brink

Author:: Eduardo A. Gamarra
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Since gaining independence from Spain in 1825, Bolivia has endured nearly two hundred coups and countercoups. Despite the establishment of comparatively democratic, civilian rule in Bolivia in 1982 through a system of “pacted democracy,” Bolivian leaders still face many of the same difficult problems as they did twenty years ago: deep-seated poverty, social exclusion of the indigenous and mestizo (of mixed racial ancestry) majority, and illegal drug production.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: United States, South America, Spain, and Bolivia

614. Darfur and Beyond: What is Needed to Prevent Mass Atrocities

Author:: Lee Feinstein
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The killing and destruction of national, ethnic, racial, or religious groups is a historical reality. So, too, is the dependable failure of the rest of the world to do much about it. Slow-motion ethnic cleansing in western Sudan is the most recent case of a state supporting mass atrocity and the rest of the world avoiding efforts to end the killing. Preventing and stopping such mass atrocities faces four reinforcing problems.
Topic:: Genocide, Human Rights, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

615. U.S.-China Relations: An Affirmative Agenda, A Responsible Course

Author:: Dennis C. Blair
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: President Richard M. Nixon reached out to the People's Republic of China thirty-five years ago to advance U.S. strategic interests by balancing the Soviet Union and reinforcing the split between two former communist allies. Nixon and his national security adviser, Henry Kissinger, briefed the Chinese on Soviet forces arrayed against China and also discussed the Vietnam War and Taiwan. Nixon and Kissinger sought to change the global U.S. stance from confrontation to détente and to extricate the United States from the Vietnam War. Their mission shifted the globe's geopolitical landscape.
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Taiwan

616. Living with Hugo: U.S. Policy Toward Hugo Chávez's Venezuela

Author:: Richard Lapper
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The popularity of the new political and economic model being developed in Venezuela has been a consistent source of aggravation for the U.S. government. Since first winning the presidency in December 1998, Hugo Chávez has been able through repeated electoral victories and radical constitutional reform to dominate Venezuela's government and public institutions. Undaunted by stiff U.S. opposition, President Chávez has launched what he calls a Bolivarian revolution, named after Simón Bolívar, a nineteenth-century leader of Latin America's independence wars. Chávez has reasserted the role of the state in the Venezuelan economy and developed extensive social programs to advance an anti- U.S., anti-capitalist crusade. New or newly reinvigorated alliances with established U.S. adversaries have helped internationalize Chávez's aims. Most alarming to those concerned with the health of Venezuelan democracy, Chávez and his allies have concentrated political power in the hands of the executive, curtailed the independence of the judiciary, shown limited tolerance for domestic critics, and openly intervened in the electoral politics of neighboring states.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, South America, and Latin America

617. Challenges for a Postelection Mexico

Author:: Pamela Starr
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: After two decades of profound yet incomplete economic and political reforms, Mexico stands at a crossroads. Its economy is now one of the most open to international trade and capital flows among emerging markets, in stark contrast to the insular development model on which Mexico relied for more than half a century. Mexico also carried out a transition to democratic politics during the last decade, after seventy-one years under single-party, authoritarian rule. Many commentators heralded the 2000 election of an opposition leader to the presidency as the capstone of this process, but it was only an important step in a long, gradual transition. President Vicente Fox promised additional steps that would consolidate previous economic and political advances and place the country on an irreversible path to becoming a fully competitive market democracy. The last six years in Mexico have been characterized instead by political stalemate, leaving an unfinished agenda of structural change that is essential for long-term economic growth, job creation, and a deepening of democratic practices.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

618. Generating Momentum for a New Era in U.S.-Turkey Relations

Author:: Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall and Stephen Cook
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The growing schism between the West and the Islamic world is one of the primary challenges confronting American foreign and defense policymakers. As a consequence, the relationship between the United States and Turkey—a Western-oriented, democratizing Muslim country—is strategically more important than ever. Turkey has the potential to be an invaluable partner as Washington endeavors to chart an effective course in its relations with the Muslim world. However, to achieve this level of cooperation, U.S.-Turkey relations must be repaired and modernized.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, America, Washington, Turkey, and North America

619. U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation

Author:: Michael Levi and Charles Ferguson
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The United States has long sought to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and to build a relationship with India, a rising power but a nuclear pariah since it first exploded an atomic bomb in 1974. In announcing a sweeping negotiated framework for nuclear cooperation with India on July 18, 2005, followed by an agreement on details on March 2, 2006, the Bush administration has stirred deep passions and put Congress in the seemingly impossible bind of choosing between approving the deal and damaging nuclear nonproliferation, or rejecting the deal and thereby setting back an important strategic relationship. Yet patience and a few simple fixes would address major proliferation concerns while ultimately strengthening the strategic partnership—provided Congress and the administration work together.
Topic:: International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, India, Asia, and North America

620. Neglected Defense: Mobilizing the Private Sector to Support Homeland Security

Author:: Daniel Prieto and Stephen Flynn
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: In policy and strategy documents since September 11, 2001, the Bush administration and Congress have repeatedly stressed the critical importance of “public-private partnerships” to make the country safer. Yet the capabilities, assets, and goodwill of the private sector to bolster our homeland security remain largely untapped. That is the primary conclusion reached by the Council on Foreign Relations working group on homeland security and the private sector over the course of one year.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: North America

621. Peace in Papua: Widening a Window of Opportunity

Author:: Blair King
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: In 2006 and 2007, the Indonesian government and the international community have a window of opportunity to begin to achieve a comprehensive solution that is acceptable to all sides to the conflict in Papua. With the October 2004 inauguration of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla, Papuans had raised expectations that a comprehensive settlement could be achieved. These expectations have only increased with the implementation of a peace agreement for Aceh since August 2005. Furthermore, Yudhoyono and Kalla are not up for reelection until 2009, and their national public approval ratings remain quite high, providing them with plenty of political breathing room for reasonable initiatives.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Australia/Pacific, and Papua

622. Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition from Turmoil to Normalcy

Author:: Barnett Rubin
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Before the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and all that followed, Afghans and the handful of internationals working on Afghanistan could hardly have imagined being fortunate enough to confront today's problems. The Bonn Agreement of December 2001 providing for the “reestablishment of permanent government institutions” in Afghanistan was fully completed with the adoption of a constitution in January 2004, the election of President Hamid Karzai in October 2004, and the formation of the National Assembly in December 2005.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Asia

623. Preventing Catastrophic Nuclear Terrorism

Author:: Charles Ferguson
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The threat of a nuclear attack by terrorists has never been greater. Over the past two decades, terrorist violence and destructiveness have grown. As the September 11, 2001, attacks demonstrated, al-Qaeda and al-Qaeda–inspired terrorists desire to inflict mass casualties. Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations have expressed interest in and searched for unconventional means of attack, such as chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons. Of these weapons, only a nuclear detonation will guarantee immediate massive destruction.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism

624. Avoiding Conflict in the Horn of Africa: U.S. Policy Toward Ethiopia and Eritrea

Author:: Terrance Lyons
Publication Date:: 12-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: In 2006, the Horn of Africa witnessed major escalations in several conflicts, a marked deterioration of governance in critical states, and a general unraveling of U.S. foreign policy toward the strategically located region. The U.S.-brokered Algiers Agreement to end the 1998–2000 border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is at a crossroads. Ethiopia has resisted implementing the decisions made by the Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Commission (EEBC), Eritrea has imposed unilateral restrictions on the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE), and both states have rejected the EEBC's plans to demarcate the border unilaterally. In Sudan, implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement remains incomplete, and the violence in Darfur continues to rage and spill into Chad. In Somalia, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has failed to establish itself outside of Baidoa and its rival, the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), has seized control of Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia. The rapid rise of the UIC in mid-2006 in particular amplified prospects for regional conflict as Ethiopia and Eritrea sent significant military support to the opposing sides. On December 6, 2006, the UN Security SudanCouncil unanimously endorsed Resolution 1725, a plan supported by Washington to deploy African troops to prop up the authorities in Baidoa. The Islamic Courts have stated that this intervention will be regarded as an invading force and will escalate, rather than reduce, the conflict.
Topic:: International Relations and Development
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, United States, Washington, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea

625. Challenges for a Postelection Mexico: Issues for U.S. Policy

Author:: Pamela K. Starr
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: After two decades of profound yet incomplete economic and political reforms, Mexico stands at a crossroads. Its economy is now one of the most open to international trade and capital flows among emerging markets, in stark contrast to the insular development model on which Mexico relied for more than half a century. Mexico also carried out a transition to democratic politics during the last decade, after seventy-one years under single-party, authoritarian rule. Many commentators heralded the 2000 election of an opposition leader to the presidency as the capstone of this process, but it was only one important step in a long, gradual transition. President Vicente Fox promised additional steps that would consolidate previous economic and political advances and place the country on an irreversible path to becoming a fully competitive market democracy. The last six years in Mexico have been characterized instead by political stalemate, leaving an unfinished agenda of structural change that is essential for long-term economic growth, job creation, and the deepening of democratic practices.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States and Mexico

626. Reforming U.S. Patent Policy: Getting the Incentives Right

Author:: Keith E. Mascus
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: America's robust economic competitiveness is du e in no small part to a large capacity for innovation. That capacity is imperiled, however, by an increasingly overprotective patent system. Over the past twenty-five years, American legislators and judges have operated on the principle that stronger patent protection engenders more innovation. This principle is misguided. Although intellectual property rights (IPR) play an important role in innovation, the recent increase in patent protection has not spurred innovation so much as it has impeded the development and use of new technologies.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:: United States, China, and America

627. Foreign Investment and National Security: Getting the Balance Right

Author:: David M. Marchick and Alan P. Larson
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Despite the significant benefits that foreign investment brings to the U.S. economy, a recent poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found that 53 percent of Americans believe foreign ownership of U.S. companies is “bad for America,” a sentiment that reached a boiling point with the proposed acquisition of the U.S. port operations of P Steam Navigation Company by Dubai Ports World (DPW). The DPW case brought to the public's attention the little-known executive committee charged with reviewing the security risks of foreign investment—the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS)—and ignited a flurry of congressional activity to change its mandate and operations under the Exon-Florio Amendment to the Defense Production Act of 1950.
Topic:: Security, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, America, and Dubai

628. Afghanistan's Uncertain Transition From Turmoil to Normalcy

Author:: Barnett Rubin
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Before the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and all that followed, Afghans and the handful of internationals working on Afghanistan could hardly have imagined being fortunate enough to confront today's problems. The Bonn Agreement of December 2001 providing for the "reestablishment of permanent government institutions" in Afghanistan was fully completed with the adoption of a constitution in January 2004, the election of President Hamid Karzai in October 2004, and the formation of the National Assembly in December 2005.
Topic:: Development and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

629. Both Sides of the Aisle: A Call for Bipartisan Foreign Policy

Author:: Nancy Roman
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: People naturally disagree about who is responsible for the partisan tone and tactics in Washington, DC, these days, but most agree on this: It's worse, it's more intense, and it's nastier. And few on either side are enjoying it much.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: Washington and North America

630. Getting Serious about the Twin Deficits

Author:: Menzie D. Chinn
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Twenty years ago, the United States was the world's largest creditor nation, unsurpassed in its ownership of assets outside of its borders, even after deducting what foreigners owned inside its borders. Yet over the past two decades, America has been transformed into the world's largest debtor nation. At the end of 2004, its debts to the rest of the world exceeded its assets by about $2.5 trillion—21 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). This proportion is unmatched by any other major developed economy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: United States and America

631. Forgotten Intervention? What the United States Needs to Do in the Western Balkans

Author:: William L. Nash and Amelia Branczik
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: In 2002, the Center for Preventive Action published Balkans 2010, a Task Force report that laid out a vision for a stable, peaceful western Balkans (comprising Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Albania) and identified the requisite objectives and milestones to achieve that vision. Many of the report's recommendations remain valid today, particularly the need to strengthen democracy and the rule of law, dismantle politico-criminal syndicates, and promote economic reform and development.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania

632. A New Beginning: Strategies for a More Fruitful Dialogue with the Muslim World

Author:: Craig Charney and Nicole Yakatan
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Focus group research in Morocco, Egypt, and Indonesia has shown that it is possible to improve the image of the United States in the Muslim world. Although many Muslims are angry at what they perceive America does, the right efforts to communicate can produce significant shifts in attitudes. Such efforts would involve listening more, speaking in a humbler tone, and focusing on bilateral aid and partnership, while tolerating disagreement on controversial policy issues. Fortunately, a window of opportunity has opened with the Iraqi elections, renewed hope for Israeli-Palestinian peace, tsunami relief, and developments in Lebanon and Egypt, as well as the start of a new administration in Washington. This moment, marked by an easing of tensions and the arrival of new actors on both sides, offers the possibility of a new beginning in America's dialogue with the Muslim world.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Indonesia, Israel, Palestine, Egypt, and Morocco

633. Power-Sharing in Iraq

Author:: David L. Phillips
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Iraq's elections on January 30, 2005, were a watershed in the country's history. Still, democracy involves much more than voting. It is about the distribution of political power through institutions and laws that guarantee accountable rule. The real fight for power will be over Iraq's permanent constitution.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

634. The Current State of the Japanese Economy

Author:: Edward J. Lincoln
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Japan, Israel, and East Asia

635. Report of the Fact-Finding Mission to Lebanon inquiring into the causes, circumstances and consequences of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri

Author:: Peter FitzGerald
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: On 14 February 2005, an explosion in downtown Beirut killed twenty persons, among them the former Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri. The United Nations' Secretary-General dispatched a Fact-Finding Mission to Beirut to inquire into the causes, the circumstances and the consequences of this assassination. Since it arrived in Beirut on 25 February, the Mission met with a large number of Lebanese officials and representatives of different political groups, performed a thorough review of the Lebanese investigation and legal proceedings, examined the crime scene and the evidence collected by the local police, collected and analyzed samples from the crime scene, and interviewed some witnesses in relation to the crime. The specific 'causes' for the assassination of Mr. Hariri cannot be reliably asserted until after the perpetrators of this crime are brought to justice. However, it is clear that the assassination took place in a political and security context marked by an acute polarization around the Syrian influence in Lebanon and a failure of the Lebanese State to provide adequate protection for its citizens. Regarding the circumstances, the Mission is of the view that the explosion was caused by a TNT charge of about 1000 KG placed most likely above the ground. The review of the investigation indicates that there was a distinct lack of commitment on the part of the Lebanese authorities to investigate the crime effectively, and that this investigation was not carried out in accordance with acceptable international standards. The Mission is also of the view that the Lebanese investigation lacks the confidence of the population necessary for its results to be accepted. The consequences of the assassination could be far-reaching. It seems to have unlocked the gates of political upheavals that were simmering throughout the last year. Accusations and counter-accusations are rife and aggravate the ongoing political polarization. Some accuse the Syrian security services and leadership of assassinating Mr. Hariri because he became an insurmountable obstacle to their influence in Lebanon. Syrian supporters maintain that he was assassinated by "the enemies of Syria"; those who wanted to create international pressure on the Syrian leadership in order to accelerate the demise of its influence in Lebanon and/or start a chain of reactions that would eventually force a 'regime change' inside Syria itself. Lebanese politicians from different backgrounds expressed to the Mission their fear that Lebanon could be caught in a possible showdown between Syria and the international community, with devastating consequences for Lebanese peace and security. After gathering the available facts, the Mission concluded that the Lebanese security services and the Syrian Military Intelligence bear the primary responsibility for the lack of security, protection, law and order in Lebanon. The Lebanese security services have demonstrated serious and systematic negligence in carrying out the duties usually performed by a professional national security apparatus. In doing so, they have severely failed to provide the citizens of Lebanon with an acceptable level of security and, therefore, have contributed to the propagation of a culture of intimidation and impunity. The Syrian Military Intelligence shares this responsibility to the extent of its involvement in running the security services in Lebanon. It is also the Mission's conclusion that the Government of Syria bears primary responsibility for the political tension that preceded the assassination of former Prime Minister Mr. Hariri. The Government of Syria clearly exerted influence that goes beyond the reasonable exercise of cooperative or neighborly relations. It interfered with the details of governance in Lebanon in a heavy-handed and inflexible manner that was the primary reason for the political polarization that ensued. Without prejudice to the results of the investigation, it is obvious that this atmosphere provided the backdrop for the assassination of Mr. Hariri. It became clear to the Mission that the Lebanese investigation process suffers from serious flaws and has neither the capacity nor the commitment to reach a satisfactory and credible conclusion. To find the truth, it would be necessary to entrust the investigation to an international independent commission, comprising the different fields of expertise that are usually involved in carrying out similarly large investigations in national systems, with the necessary executive authority to carry out interrogations, searches, and other relevant tasks. Furthermore, it is more than doubtful that such an international commission could carry out its tasks satisfactorily - and receives the necessary active cooperation from local authorities - while the current leadership of the Lebanese security services remains in office. It is the Mission's conclusion that the restoration of the integrity and credibility of the Lebanese security apparatus is of vital importance to the security and stability of the country. A sustained effort to restructure, reform and retrain the Lebanese security services will be necessary to achieve this end, and will certainly require assistance and active engagement on the part of the international community. Finally, it is the Mission's view that international and regional political support will be necessary to safeguard Lebanon's national unity and to shield its fragile polity from unwarranted pressure. Improving the prospects of peace and security in the region would offer a more solid ground for restoring normalcy in Lebanon.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East

636. In the Wake of War: Improving U.S. Post-Conflict Capabilities

Author:: William L. Nash, Brent Scowcroft, and Samuel R. Berger
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: From Mogadishu to Mosul, the United States has undertaken six major nation-building operations around the world since 1993. The challenges of terrorism, failed states, and proliferation indicate this trend will only continue. Today, in Iraq, the United States carries the bulk of the nation-building burden. Some 135,000 U.S. troops remain on the ground, at an approximate cost of $50 billion per year. Nearly four years after forcing out the Taliban in Afghanistan, 9,000 NATO forces and 17,000 U.S. troops remain in that country to secure the peace and continue the hunt for al-Qaeda.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Taliban

637. HIV and National Security: Where Are the Links?

Author:: Laurie A. Garrett
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: It is important to clarify the security dimensions of the HIV/AIDS pandemic because actions taken to confront the disease as matters of domestic policy or foreign aid may differ markedly from those taken to address threats to national security. Understanding the impact HIV is now having, much less forecasting its toll and effects twenty years hence, is difficult. Little scrupulous analysis of the political, military, economic, and general security effects of the pandemic has been performed, both because the area is poorly funded and the problem is extremely complex.
Topic:: Health and United Nations

638. Giving Meaning to "Never Again": Seeking an Effective Response to the Crisis in Darfur and Beyond

Author:: Cheryl Igiri and Princeton M. Lyman
Publication Date:: 09-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: April 2004 marked ten years since genocide ravaged Rwanda. The anniversary recalls the horrific way in which some 800,000 Rwandans lost their lives and serves as an unforgettable reminder of the international community's failure to prevent that genocide. This failure pervades the current consciousness as the tenor rises over how to react to credible reports of ethnic cleansing in Sudan.
Topic:: Security, Genocide, and International Law
Political Geography:: Sudan, North Africa, and Rwanda

639. Iran: Time for a New Approach

Author:: Robert M. Gates, Zbigniew Brzezinski, and Susan Maloney
Publication Date:: 07-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Twenty-five years after its Islamic revolution, Iran represents a challenge and an opportunity for the United States. The issues at stake reflect the urgent and multifaceted dilemmas of U.S. security in the post–9/11 era: nuclear proliferation, state support of terrorism, the relationship between religion and politics, and the imperative of political and economic reform in the Middle East. At this time, as Iraq—Iran's neighbor and historic adversary—embarks on a difficult transition to post-conflict sovereignty, and as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) extends its scrutiny of Iranian nuclear activities, Iran looms large on the U.S. policy agenda. Recognizing this relevance to vital U.S. interests, the Task Force advocates selectively engaging with Iran to address critical U.S. concerns.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

640. Update on the Global Campaign Against Terrorist Financing

Author:: Marice R. Greenberg, Mallory Factor, William F. Wechsler, and Lee S. Wolosky
Publication Date:: 06-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: In October 2002, this Task Force issued its initial report on terrorist financing. That report described the nature of the al-Qaeda financial network, the actions that had been taken to date to combat terrorist financing, and the obstacles that hindered those efforts.
Topic:: Terrorism and War
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

641. Freedom, Prosperity, and Security

Author:: J. Brian Atwood, Robert S. Browne, and Princeton N. Lyman
Publication Date:: 05-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The United States will host the G8 Summit at Sea Island, Georgia, in June 2004. Many urgent and critical international issues need to be discussed at the summit, especially developments in the Middle East and in the worldwide war on terrorism. It will be important, however, that the summit also maintain the momentum of the past three years in the G8-Africa partnership. This will reinforce the work of African leaders who are championing democracy, human rights, and good governance. Africa, moreover, figures prominently in the three global issues the United States has selected for the summit: freedom, security, and prosperity.
Topic:: Security and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, Middle East, Georgia, and Island

642. Challenges for a Post-Election Philippines

Author:: Catherine E. Dalpino
Publication Date:: 05-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The outcome of national elections in the Philippines on May 10 is still to be determined. For the past three years, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has governed as an appointed head of state in the wake of President Joseph Estrada's forced resignation on corruption charges. Her administration inherited a country in crisis, and it began the critical process of economic stabilization and growth. Economic indicators in the past two years have shown modest progress. In this interim period, the Philippines has been a steadfast ally of the United States in the war against terrorism. These fragile gains could be imperiled if the Philippines does not complete the electoral process in an expeditious and credible manner. Whatever the outcome of the polls, the winner will have little time to lose in addressing a number of short- and long-term problems in the Philippines.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Asia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia

643. Iraq: One Year After

Author:: Thomas R. Pickering, James R. Schlesinger, and Eric P. Schwartz
Publication Date:: 03-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: On March 20, 2003, the United States launched Operation Iraqi Freedom, designed to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein. By mid-April, major fighting was essentially over, and on May 1, the United States declared an end to major combat operations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Democratization
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

644. Renewing the Atlantic Partnership

Author:: Lawrence H. Summers, Henry A. Kissinger, and Charles A. Kupchan
Publication Date:: 03-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The accomplishments of the Atlantic alliance are remarkable. History records few, if any, alliances that have yielded so many benefits for their members or for the broader international community. After centuries of recurrent conflict, war among the European great powers has become inconceivable. The Cold War has been won; the threat of nuclear war has receded. Freedom has prevailed against totalitarian ideologies. Trade, investment, and travel are more open today than ever before. Progress in raising living standards—in rich and poor countries alike—is unprecedented.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

645. Nonlethal Weapons and Capabilities

Author:: Paul X. Kelley, Richard L. Garwin, and Graham T. Allison
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: In the four weeks of “major conflict” in Iraq that began on March 19, 2003, U.S. forces demonstrated the power of training, transformation, and joint operations. However, the ensuing support and stability phase has been plagued by looting, sabotage, and insurgency. Wider integration of existing types of nonlethal weapons (NLW) into the U.S. Army and Marine Corps could have helped to reduce the damage done by widespread looting and sabotage after the cessation of major conflict in Iraq. Incorporating these and additional forms of nonlethal capabilities more broadly into the equipment, training, and doctrine of the armed services could substantially improve U.S. effectiveness in achieving the goals of modern war. Nonlethal weapons and capabilities have much to offer also in the conduct of war, in the prevention of hostilities, and in support of homeland defense. Indeed, a force using nonlethal weapons and capabilities has the potential of achieving combat and support goals more effectively than would a force employing only lethal means. How to achieve these benefits is the subject of this report.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, and War
Political Geography:: United States and Iraq

646. Andes 2020: A New Strategy for the Challenges of Colombia and the Region

Author:: Daniel W. Christman, John G. Heimann, and Julia E. Sweig
Publication Date:: 01-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The democracies of the Andean region—Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia—are at risk. The problems that characterize other developing regions—including political instability, economic stagnancy, widening inequality, and social divisions along class, color, ethnic, ideological, and urban-rural fault lines—are all present in the Andes. Most important is the region's physical insecurity, due in some countries to ongoing or resurgent violent conflict, and in every country to the lack of state control over significant territory and to porous borders that enable the easy movement of drugs, arms, and conflict. Equally sobering, expectations for strong democracy and economic prosperity in the Andes remain unrealized. Recognizing its interests in the Andes, the United States over the past two decades has spent billions of dollars and significant manpower to stem the flow of illegal drugs from the region northward; to assist local security forces in the fight against drugs, terror, and insurgency; and to promote free markets, human rights, and democratic consolidation. Yet the region remains on the brink of collapse, an outcome that would pose a serious threat to the U.S. goal of achieving democracy, prosperity, and security in the hemisphere.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Colombia, South America, Latin America, Venezuela, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia

647. Stability, Security, and Sovereignty in the Republic of Georgia

Author:: David L. Phillips
Publication Date:: 01-2004
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The Republic of Georgia suffers from pervasive problems. Popular frustrations boiled over after the November 2, 2003, parliamentary elections, which international observers determined were fraudulent. Facing mass protests and civil disobedience, President Eduard Shevardnadze resigned. The so-called revolution of roses culminated in a peaceful transfer of power when Mikhail Saakashvili assumed the presidency after receiving 96 percent of the vote in a special ballot on January 4, 2004.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Asia, and Georgia

648. New Priorities in South Asia

Author:: Frank G. II Wisner, Nicholas Platt, and Marshall M. Bouton
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: South Asia may be halfway around the globe from the United States, but in the age of the Internet and globalization, what happens there—as the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda tragically underscored—can affect all Americans. The challenge to U.S. policy over the medium term (through 2010) is to design and implement a stable and sustained approach that will solidify bilateral ties with three of the key countries of the region—India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan—and give the United States an opportunity to influence major regional developments. This report assesses the strengths and weaknesses of India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan and recommends how U.S. policy can best take advantage of the opportunities while addressing the dangers that they present. Success in dealing with South Asia will require sustained and highlevel attention, sensitive diplomacy, a realistic view of what is possible, and, especially with Pakistan and Afghanistan, investment of substantial resources.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and India

649. Finding America's Voice: A Strategy for Reinvigorating U.S. Public Diplomacy

Author:: Peter G. Peterson, Kathy Bloomgarden, Henry Grunwald, David E. Morey, Shibley Telhami, Jennifer Sieg, and Sharon Herbstman
Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The United States has a growing problem. Public opinion polls echo what is seen in foreign editorials and headlines, legislative debate, and reports of personal and professional meetings. Anti- Americanism is a regular feature of both mass and elite opinion around the world. A poll by the Times of London, taken just before the Iraq war, found respondents split evenly over who posed a greater threat to world peace, U.S. President George W. Bush or then Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. At the same time, European antiwar protests drew millions, and several national leaders ran successfully on anti- American platforms. Americans at home and abroad face an increased risk of direct attack from individuals and small groups that now wield more destructive power. The amount of discontent in the world bears a direct relationship to the amount of danger Americans face.
Topic:: International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, and Europe

650. Afghanistan: Are We Losing the Peace?

Author:: Marshall Bouton, Frank G. Wisner, Nicholas Platt, Mahnaz Ispahani, and Dennis Kux
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Nineteen months after the defeat of the Taliban and its al-Qaeda allies, Afghanistan remains a long way from achieving the U.S. goal of a stable self-governing state that no longer serves as a haven for terrorists. Indeed, failure to stem deteriorating security conditions and to spur economic reconstruction could lead to a reversion to warlord dominated anarchy and mark a major defeat for the U.S. war on terrorism. To prevent this from happening, the Task Force recommends that the United States strengthen the hand of President Hamid Karzai and intensify support for security, diplomatic, and economic reconstruction in Afghanistan.
Topic:: Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and South Asia

651. Emergency Responders: Drastically Underfunded, Dangerously Unprepared

Author:: Warren B. Rudman, Richard A. Clarke, and Jamie F. Metzl
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: If we knew that there was going to be a terrorist attack sometime in the next five years but did not know what type of attack it would be, who would carry it out, or where in the United States it would occur, what actions would we take to prepare and how would we allocate our human and financial resources to do so? The tragic events of September 11, 2001 brought home to the American people the magnitude of the danger posed by terrorism on U.S. soil. Now, in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, the United States must assume that terrorists will strike again, possibly using chemical, biological, radiological, or even nuclear materials. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Government
Political Geography:: United States

652. Burma: A Time for Change

Author:: Mathea Falco
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: On May 30, 2003, the Burmese military regime orchestrated violent attacks by pro-government militia on Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and her supporters as they traveled outside Mandalay. At least four of her bodyguards were killed as well as a significant number of others. She has been held in custody since then. Following the attacks, the regime arrested more than 100 democracy activists, imprisoned at least a dozen, shut down NLD offices across the country, and closed schools and universities. This is the bloodiest confrontation between Burma's military rulers and democracy supporters since 1988, when the government suppressed a popular uprising against the regime and thousands were killed.
Topic:: Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Burma and Southeast Asia

653. Iraq: The Day After- Chairs' Update

Author:: Thomas Pickering and James Schlesinger
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: This memorandum focuses on key challenges in the postwar period in Iraq. It supplements the March 12, 2003, report, Iraq: The Day After, prepared by the Independent Task Force on Post-Conflict Iraq and sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations. That report contained some 30 recommendations for U.S. postwar policy in Iraq. While some of the Task Force's recommendations addressed contingencies that did not occur (such as the use of weapons of mass destruction by Iraqi forces or large-scale refugee flight), the bulk of the recommendations remain applicable some three months after the release of the initial report. This supplement highlights a few key areas of continuing concern that we believe require attention by the administration.
Topic:: Development and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

654. Chinese Military Power

Author:: Harold Brown, Adam Segal, and Joseph W. Prueher
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The People's Republic of China (PRC) is currently engaged in comprehensive military modernization. This report addresses the state of China's military capability, assesses the current capabilities of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), and establishes milestones for judging the future evolution of Chinese military power over the next twenty years. These assessments and milestones will provide policymakers and the public with a pragmatic and nonpartisan approach to measuring the development of Chinese military power. They will allow observers of Chinese military modernization to determine the degree to which changes in the quantity and quality of China's military power may threaten the interests of the United States, its allies, and its friends; and how the United States should adjust and respond politically, diplomatically, economically, and militarily to China's military development.
Topic:: Defense Policy
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

655. Meeting the North Korean Nuclear Challenge

Author:: Eric Heginbotham, Morton I. Abramowitz, and James T. Laney
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Over the past two years, North Korea has advanced its nuclear weapons program and increasingly emphasized its need for a nuclear capability. Since October 2002 when it admitted to having a clandestine program to make highly enrichment uranium (HEU), the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has withdrawn from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), asserted it possesses nuclear weapons, and declared that it is reprocessing its spent fuel. In May 2003, Pyongyang declared that its 1992 “denuclearization” pledge with South Korea was dead. North Korean violations of the Agreed Framework, the basis of U.S.-North Korea relations since 1994, have left that agreement in tatters.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, East Asia, and North Korea

656. A New National Security Strategy in an Age of Terrorists, Tyrants, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

Author:: Lawrence J. Korb
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: From the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 to the fall of the Twin Towers in 2001, and even now after the Iraq war of 2003, the United States has not had a consistent national security strategy that enjoyed the support of the American people and our allies. This situation is markedly different from the Cold War era when our nation had a clear, coherent, widely supported strategy that focused on containing and deterring Soviet Communist expansion. The tragic events of September 11, the increase in terrorism, and threats from countries such as North Korea and, until recently, Iraq, create an imperative once again to fashion and implement a coherent national security strategy that will safeguard our national interests.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Israel, East Asia, North Korea, and Berlin

657. Iraq: The Day After

Author:: Thomas R. Pickering and James R. Schlesinger
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: If the United States goes to war and removes the regime of Saddam Hussein, American interests will demand an extraordinary commitment of U.S. financial and personnel resources to postconflict transitional assistance and reconstruction. These interests include eliminating Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD); ending Iraqi contacts, whether limited or extensive, with international terrorist organizations; ensuring that a post-transition Iraqi government can maintain the country's territorial integrity and independence while contributing to regional stability; and offering the people of Iraq a future in which they have a meaningful voice in the vital decisions that impact their lives.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, and Middle East

658. Guiding Principles for U.S. Post-Conflict Policy in Iraq

Author:: Frank G. Wisner and Edward P. Djerejian
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Today's Iraq debate is understandably focused on the run-up to possible military action. However, the question of how the United States and the international community should manage post-conflict Iraq is even more consequential, as it will determine the long-term condition of Iraq and the entire Middle East. If Washington does not clearly define its goals for Iraq and build support for them domestically and with its allies and partners, future difficulties are bound to quickly overshadow any initial military success. Put simply, the United States may lose the peace, even if it wins the war.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Arab Countries

659. Building a Transatlantic Securities Market

Author:: Benn Steil
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: This report aims to jump-start the integration of the US and EU securities markets through a mutual recognition agreement on transatlantic exchange access. Under this agreement, securities exchanges on each side of the Atlantic would be permitted to provide direct electronic access to brokers and institutional investors on the other side, for the purpose of trading listed equities and derivatives based on equities. We argue that this initiative will reduce trading costs, increase investment returns, lower the cost of capital, and increase economic growth on both sides of the Atlantic. The success of such an initiative will, over time, encourage its expansion to cover all forms of debt securities, primary issues, and other national markets.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

660. Threats to Democracy: Prevention and Response

Author:: Elizabeth Frawley Bagley and Morton H. Halperin
Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Threats to democracy—erosions of democracy and democratic institutions and unconstitutional interruptions to the democratic process—continue to plague countries on the path to democracy. Democratic governments, both individually and in their capacity as members of the Community of Democracies, regional and international organizations, and international financial institutions, must secure more effective international action against threats to democracy in states that have chosen the democratic path.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Globalization, and Government

661. America — Still Unprepared, Still in Danger

Author:: Stephen E. Flynn, Warren B. Rudman, and Gary Hart
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: A year after September 11, 2001, America remains dangerously unprepared to prevent and respond to a catastrophic terrorist attack on U.S. soil. In all likelihood, the next attack will result in even greater casualties and widespread disruption to American lives and the economy. The need for immediate action is made more urgent by the prospect of the United States's going to war with Iraq and the possibility that Saddam Hussein might threaten the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in America.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States

662. Enhancing U.S. Leadership at the United Nations

Author:: Lee Feinstein, David Dreier, Lee Hamilton, and Adrian Karatnycky
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Enhanced American leadership at the United Nations is beneficial for U.S. interests and can help strengthen the UN and the international system. For many years, however, the United States has not been nearly as effective at the UN as it can or should be.
Topic:: Government, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States and America

663. Terrorist Financing

Author:: Maurice R. Greenberg, Lee S. Wolosky, and William F. Wechsler
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Unlike other terrorist leaders, Osama bin Laden is not a military hero, a religious authority, or an obvious representative of the downtrodden and disillusioned. He is a rich financier. He built al- Qaeda's financial network from the foundation of a system originally designed to channel resources to the mujahideen fighting the Soviets.
Topic:: Security, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Soviet Union

664. How Shareholder Reforms Can Pay Foreign Policy Dividends

Author:: James J. Shinn and Peter Gourevitch
Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Corporate governance—the rules that govern the relationship between managers and shareholders—belongs on the foreign policy agenda of American decision-makers. The vigorous debates underway about corporate governance, both at home and abroad, present an opportunity for the United States to advance its foreign policy goals of enhancing free trade and financial stability.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

665. Sustaining a Revolution: A Policy for Crop Engineering

Author:: David Victor and C. Ford Runge
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Controversy, even fear, of new foods is not new. The tomato was widely regarded as poisonous in the United States and northern Europe as late as the 1830s, due to its relationship to the night-shade family of plants. There was such concern that in 1820, the state of New York banned their consumption. Tomatoes even had their own “Frankenfood” label: “wolf 's peaches.”
Topic:: Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

666. Democratizing U.S. Trade Policy

Author:: Pat Choate and Bruce Stokes
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Storm clouds signaling trouble with American trade policy have been gathering for some time. In the early 1990s, Congress barely approved creation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and only strenuous efforts by the Clinton administration and the business community ensured passage of legislation creating the World Trade Organization (WTO). In the late 1990s, President Clinton twice failed to obtain congressional renewal of his trade-negotiating authority. The massive demonstrations during the meeting of the world's trade ministers in Seattle in 1999 reflected a widespread public unease with the impact of trade policy on a range of issues, from clear-cutting practices in the forests of Indonesia to the price of AIDS drugs in southern Africa. Today, public opinion polls consistently demonstrate that, although the American public supports freer trade in theory, it often has profound reservations about trade liberalization in practice. And the current global economic slowdown may only further polarize public opinion on trade issues.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Indonesia, South America, and North America

667. The United States and Southeast Asia: A Policy Agenda for the New Administration

Author:: Robert A. Manning and J. Robert Kerrey
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Southeast Asia presents the United States with both an important challenge and an opportunity. American leadership and enlightened action in Southeast Asia in the critical period ahead will almost certainly help stabilize a region undergoing troubling political and economic turbulence. Absent our leadership, democratizing states may founder and economic conditions in a majority of the region's countries will likely worsen. It is in the interest of the people of the United States that we choose the first course. The July 1997 collapse of the Thai baht, which triggered a regional crisis that threatened to destabilize world financial markets, was a chilling reminder of Southeast Asia's importance; the 1999 East Timor crisis is another tragic event that caught the United States unprepared. The 1990–91 Cambodia peace process, on the other hand, was a sterling example of how American leadership can make a difference. We believe the new administration has an opportunity for a fresh start to shape a coherent, proactive approach to the region. As Secretary of State Colin Powell prepares for his visit to the area during the July meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and as the administration considers President Bush's first trip to Asia for the October summit of the leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group (APEC) in Shanghai, this is a timely moment to review the situation in Southeast Asia.
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and Southeast Asia

668. Strategic Energy Policy Challenges for the 21st Century

Author:: Edward L. Morse and Amy Myers Jaffe
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: For many decades the United States has not had a comprehensive energy policy. Now, the consequences of this complacency have revealed themselves in California. Now, there could be more California-like situations in America's future. President George W. Bush and his administration need to tell these agonizing truths to the American people and lay the basis for a comprehensive, long-term U.S. energy security policy.
Political Geography:: America and California

669. State Department Reform

Author:: Frank C. Carlucci and Ian J. Brzezinski
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Language should designate State Department renewal as one of your top priorities and present your initiative as the next stage of a bipartisan reform process already initiated by Congress. A paragraph in this speech would serve as an invaluable tool to the secretary of state in his efforts to win necessary legislative support and to overcome bureaucratic inertia and resistance.

670. U.S.-Cuban Relations in the 21st Century: A Follow-On Chairman's Report

Author:: Julia Sweig and Walter Mead
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: In the last quarter of 1998, following the visit to Cuba of Pope John Paul II, the Council on Foreign Relations convened an Independent Task Force to assess U.S. policy toward Cuba in the post–Cold War era. The Task Force represents a bipartisan group of former State Department officials, congressional staff, labor leaders, and students of Latin American affairs and U.S. foreign policy from a cross section of think tanks, academic and religious institutions, businesses, trade unions, and government agencies. In a chairman's report issued in January 1999, the Task Force recommended a number of steps to strengthen civil society in Cuba, expand people-to-people contact between Cubans and Americans, and “contribute to rapid, peaceful, democratic transition in Cuba while safeguarding the vital interests of the United States.”
Political Geography:: United States and Cuba

671. A Financial Architecture for Middle-Class-Oriented Development

Author:: Walter Russell Mead and Sherle R. Schwenninger
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The Case For Middle-Class-Oriented Development International financial architecture works best when it serves social goals that command widespread support and legitimacy. Without neglecting the more conventional goal of allowing the greatest possible global flow of capital with the least risk of financial crisis, the primary goal of international financial reform, for both economic and political reasons, ought to be to promote middle-class-oriented development around the world.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

672. A New Beginning: Recasting the U.S.-Japan Economic Relationship

Author:: Bruce Stokes
Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The time is ripe for a bold new initiative to recast the U.S.-Japan economic partnership for the 21st century. A new Japan is emerging. Foreign investment is on the rise. Tokyo is deregulating and restructuring its economy. A new generation of Japanese entrepreneurs and venture capitalists has arrived on the stage.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and North Africa

673. Economic Crisis and Corporate Reform in East Asia

Author:: Meredith Woo-Cumings
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 involved, among other things, a failure of regulation. Some believe this failure is endemic to global capitalism, and others believe it was profoundly local and idiosyncratic, emanating from regulatory flaws in the affected countries, stretching an arc from Thailand and Indonesia to Korea and Japan. There is also a debate about the nature of the regulation that failed. Some argue that the crisis emanated from a surfeit of nettlesome regulations and endemic industrial policy; others claim it happened for want of effective regulations and (even) industrial policy. Across the hypotenuse of these disagreements, however, stretches a universal recognition that regulatory infrastructure and institutions do matter and that they must play a major role in the way we think about economic development. After the miracle years in East Asia, “good governance” has become the Spirit of the Age.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Indonesia, Israel, East Asia, Asia, Korea, and Thailand

674. The Paradox of Free Market Democracy: Indonesia and the Problems Facing Neoliberal Reform

Author:: Amy L. Chua
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: This paper will situate the recent problems in Indonesia in a more general framework that I will call the paradox of free-market democracy. The basic thesis I will advance is as follows. In Indonesia, as in many developing countries, class and ethnicity overlap in a distinctive and potentially explosive way: namely, in the form of a starkly economically dominant ethnic minority—here, the Sino-Indonesians. In such circumstances, contrary to conventional wisdom, markets and democracy may not be mutually reinforcing. On the contrary, the combined pursuit of marketization and democratization in Indonesia may catalyze ethnic tensions in highly determinate and predictable ways, with potentially very serious consequences, including the subversion of markets and democracy themselves. The principal challenge for neoliberal reform in Indonesia will be to find institutions capable of grappling with the problems of rapid democratization in the face of pervasive poverty, ethnic division, and an historically resented, market-dominant “outsider” minority.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, and East Asia

675. Sustainable Development and the Open-Door Policy in China

Author:: James K. Galbraith and Jaiging Lu
Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: How can one best explain China's remarkable economic growth during twenty-one years and its rise from autarky to world economic power? The exercise requires chutzpah; it demands simplification; it cries out for the trained capacity to present a unifying theme with a weighty set of policy implications.
Topic:: Development
Political Geography:: China and Asia

676. Cultural Contradictions of Post-Communism: Why Liberal Reforms Did Not Succeed in Russia

Author:: Nina Khrushcheva
Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: One goal of Russia's economic reforms during the last ten years has been to establish a new class of businessmen and owners of private property—people who could form the foundation for a new model post-Soviet citizen. However, the experience of this post-communist economic “revolution” has turned out to be very different from the original expectations. For as people became disillusioned with communism due to its broken promises, the words “democracy” and “reform” quickly became equally as unbearable to large sectors of the Russian public after 1991. Such disillusion was achieved in less than ten years—a record revolutionary burnout that would be the envy of any anti-Bolshevik.
Topic:: Communism, Democratization, Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

677. China, Nuclear Weapons, and Arms Control: A Preliminary Assessment

Author:: Robert A. Manning, Ronald Montaperto, and Brad Roberts
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Historically, U.S. nuclear strategists and arms control experts have paid little attention to the People's Republic of China (PRC). China has not been a major factor in the U.S. nuclear calculus, which has remained centered on U.S.-Russian nuclear arsenals as the principal framework for arms control and arms reductions. Yet today China is the only one of the five de jure nuclear weapons states qualitatively and quantitatively expanding its nuclear arsenal.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Asia

678. The United States, Japan, and China: Setting the Course

Author:: Neil E. Silver
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The political dynamics of China-Japan relations have changed in reaction to three events: the demise of bipolar world politics, China's ''rise,'' and Japan's unexpected economic stall. These changed political dynamics have brought important challenges and consequences for the United States.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

679. Humanitarian Intervention: Crafting a Workable Doctrine

Author:: Alton Frye
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: During the more than forty years of the Cold War when we faced direct military threats to our national security and other vital interests, U.S. forces were employed with great rarity and even greater caution. Ironically, in the decade following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have threatened and used military force with increasing frequency in what has come to be called “armed humanitarian intervention.” Had we yielded to all of the calls for help, we would have committed our military forces even more often.
Political Geography:: United States

680. Future Visions for U.S. Defense Policy : Four Alternatives Presented as Presidential Speeches

Author:: John Hillen and Lawrence Korb
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Since the end of the Cold War, our defense policy has been formulated on an ad hoc basis without a clear underpinning. This piecemeal way of doing things has caused problems and frustrations both at home and abroad. Our Congress, military, allies, adversaries, and potential adversaries are confused about the lack of consistency. You and your opponents expressed similar concerns during the campaign.
Topic:: Cold War
Political Geography:: United States

681. Toward Greater Peace and Security in Colombia: Forging a Constructive U.S. Policy

Author:: Michael Shifter, Bob Graham, and Brent Scowcroft
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: At the dawn of the 21st century, few countries in the world are as deeply troubled as Colombia. This Andean nation—the third most populous in Latin America—is experiencing crises on many fronts. But at the same time the country possesses hopeful elements— the product of a resourceful and resilient people—coupled with an opportunity to forge a more democratic, peaceful, just, and prosperous nation.
Political Geography:: Colombia and Latin America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS