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  • Author: Michael Emerson
  • Publication Date: 07-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper looks at the trade policy landscape of the EU and the wider Europe, with a focus on issues arising from the signature on 27 June 2014 of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) between the EU and three East European countries (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), and actual or prospective issues relating to the customs union of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan (BRK), and the Eurasian Economic Union whose founding treaty was signed on 29 May 2014. While the contrived collision between these projects has tragically induced Russia to break all the established international security norms by waging war against Ukraine , the present paper deals essentially with trade policy issues . The huge expansion of intercontinental free trade area negotiation s currently underway, in which the EU is an active participant alongside much of the Americas and Asia, stands in contrast with Russia's choice to restrict itself to the Eurasian Economic Union, which is only a marginal extension of its own economy. Alone among the major economies in the world, Russia does not seek to integrate economically with any major economic bloc, which should be a matter of serious concern for Moscow. Within the wider Europe, the EU's DCFTAs with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are a major new development, but Russia now threatens trade sanctions against Ukraine in particular, the economic case for which seems unfounded and whose unilateral application would also impair the customs union. The Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan customs union itself poses several issues of compatibility with the rules of the WTO, which in turn are viewed by the EU as an impediment to discussing possible free trade scenarios with the customs union, although currently there are far more fundamental political impediments to any consideration of such ideas. Nonetheless this paper looks at various long-term scenarios, if only as a reminder that there could be much better alternatives to the present context of conflict around Ukraine.
  • Topic: International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Kazakhstan
  • Author: Bohdana Dimitrovova
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This Working Document explores the implications of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) as an ambitious EU foreign policy for the development of a European political community. It suggests that the ENP can be viewed as an attempt to reconcile two potentially contradictory processes. The first – 'border confirming' – is about confirming border areas of demarcation and division, in which borders are conceived as boundary lines, frontier zones or barriers that protect the European Union and its citizens. The second – 'border transcending' – consists of a challenge to open EU borders and involves the transformation of the EU's external boundaries into zones of interactions, opportunities and exchanges, with the emphasis on the transcendence of boundaries. To unravel some of the contradictions surrounding the highly contested phenomena of mobility in the neighbourhood, this paper analyses three bordering strategies: state borders, the imperial analogy and borders as networks. Each corresponds to different forms of territoriality and implies a different mode of control over the population.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Organization, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Piotr Maciej Kaczyński
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen last December taught many lessons to the participating stakeholders. The European Union learned that a choir of European leaders could not sing convincingly even with a single voice. These lessons are still being processed in many national capitals and in Brussels, especially in the context of the new legal framework provided for by the Treaty of Lisbon, which entered into force on 1 December 2009. It is important to recognise, however, that the new rules came into effect only after nine long years of negotiations and its application is being tested in a wholly different international environment than prevailed in the early 2000s.
  • Topic: International Relations, Climate Change, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Europe, United Nations, Lisbon
  • Author: Daniel S. Hamilton
  • Publication Date: 05-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: To what degree may the US be considered a normative power? The US foreign policy mainstream tends to reflect a varying blend of normative and hegemonic approaches. The US has been and continues to be simultaneously a guardian of international norms; a norm entrepreneur challenging prevailing norms as insufficient; a norm externaliser when it tries to advance norms for others that it is reluctant to apply to itself; and a norm blocker when it comes to issues that may threaten its position, or that exacerbate divisions among conflicting currents of American domestic thought. On balance (and despite exceptions), the US has sought to manage this normative-hegemonic interplay by accepting some limits on its power in exchange for greater legitimacy and acceptance of its leadership by others. The unresolved question today is whether the US and other key players are prepared to stick with this bargain. Closer examination of the US case also raises a considerable number of questions about the notion of the EU as a 'normative power'.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Law, International Organization, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Europe
  • Author: Stefano Bertozzi
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper assesses the achievements of the European Commission and the member states over the last six years in the management of Europe's internal and external borders. The key stages in the development of the Schengen acquis are identified, including the creation of FRONTEX (the EU agency responsible for coordinating the operational cooperation between member states in the field of border security) and the recent Schengen enlargement. The author attempts to explain the main reasons why the member states of the European Union have relinquished some of their much-treasured sovereignty and pooled their financial and human resources in a bid to manage and police Europe's external borders more effectively. Finally, this paper considers the fundamental question of how to make Europe's controls more effective, more technologically advanced and more responsive to the new challenges posed by globalisation, without impinging on the principle of the free movement of people.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Andrey Makarychev
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This working paper argues that Russia is in the process of re-branding itself internationally, with a variety of normative arguments increasingly creeping into its wider international discourse. By appealing to norms, Russia tries to reformulate the key messages it sends to the world and implant the concept of its power worldwide. Yet given that Russia's normative messages are often met with scarce enthusiasm in Europe, it is of utmost importance to uncover how the normative segment in Russian foreign policy is perceived, evaluated and debated both inside Russia and elsewhere. Within this framework, this paper focuses on a set of case studies highlighting the normative and non-normative dimensions of Russian foreign policy. These include Russia-EU transborder cooperation, Moscow's policies towards Estonia, Poland, Ukraine/Georgia and the UK, Russian strategies in the 'war on terror' and energy issues.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, Poland, Moscow, Estonia, Georgia
  • Author: Stefano Micossi
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Many observers take it for granted that the European Union suffers from a lack of democracy: in the dual sense that common policies have diverged from voters' preferences (output legitimacy) and that decision-making mechanisms appear to lack the basic requirements of transparency, accountability and democratic involvement (input legitimacy). Stefano Micossi, Director General of Assonime, argues in this paper that once the Union is recognised for what it is – an innovative polity, where power is shared by a large number of players with many participation and influence-wielding mechanisms, – it becomes apparent that on the whole it complies with democratic legitimisation standards no less than do member states, even if multiple, and potentially conflicting legitimisation channels and principles may confuse observers. The member states and EU citizens continue to turn to the Union to seek solutions to problems that cannot be solved nationally, and there is an extraordinary proliferation of subjects and channels providing participation in European debates and decisions, in new and ever-changing ways. Through this continuous adjustment process, the Union has designed new legitimisation solutions that may well represent the future of democracy in a world of diverse but increasingly interconnected communities.
  • Topic: International Relations, Democratization, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Daniel Gros
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper provides background information on the likely challenges the rise of China and India will pose for the economy of the EU. The purpose is mainly descriptive, namely to spell out what kind of trading partner China and India will represent for the EU in the foreseeable future. A first observation is that India is several times smaller than China in economic terms. Moreover, because its investment rates in both human and physical capital are much lower than in China, its growth potential is likely to remain more limited. China's export structure has already become rather similar to that of the EU and this 'convergence' is likely to result in the rapid accumulation of human and physical capital. If current trends continue, the Chinese economy is likely to have a capital/labour ratio similar to that of the EU. In terms of human capital, China has already caught up considerably, but further progress will be slowed down by its stable demographics and the still low enrolment ratio in tertiary education. In both areas India will lag China by several decades. The rapid accumulation of capital suggests that the emergence of China will put adjustment pressures mainly on capital-intensive industries, not the traditional sectors, such as textiles. Another source of friction that is likely to emerge derives from the abundance of coal in China, resulting in a relatively carbon- and energy-intensive economy.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: China, Europe, India
  • Author: Nathalie Tocci
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This is the second in a series of papers from a new project entitled “Who is a normative foreign policy actor? The European Union and its Global Partners”. The first paper – entitled Profiling Normative Foreign Policy: The European Union and its Global Partners, by Nathalie Tocci, CEPS Working Document No. 279, December 2007 – set out the conceptual framework for exploring this question. The present paper constitutes one of several case studies applying this framework to the behaviour of the European Union, whereas the others to follow concern China, India, Russia and the United States. A normative foreign policy is rigorously defined as one that is normative according to the goals set, the means employed and the results obtained. Each of these studies explores eight actual case examples of foreign policy behaviour, selected in order to illustrate four alternative paradigms of foreign policy behaviour – the normative, the realpolitik, the imperialistic and the status quo. For each of these four paradigms, there are two examples of EU foreign policy, one demonstrating intended consequences and the other, unintended effects. The fact that examples can be found that fit all of these different types shows the importance of 'conditioning factors', which relate to the internal interests and capabilities of the EU as a foreign policy actor as well as the external context in which other major actors may be at work.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, China, Europe, India
  • Author: Michael Emerson
  • Publication Date: 03-2008
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: resident Sarkozy's proposed Union for the Mediterranean (or UMed) has so far been poorly conceived and, to say the least, awkwardly presented politically. However this does not mean that nothing good can come of it. The Barcelona process and its confusing combination with the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) have neither been a disaster nor a brilliant success. There is a case for streamlining a single European Mediterranean policy, rationalising and properly integrating Barcelona, the ENP and new ideas that the UMed initiative may produce. Both Italy and Spain as well as the South Mediterranean states themselves appear concerned not to undermine the existing structures (Barcelona and ENP). Steps could be made to lighten the overweight participation of the EU and all its 27 member states in too many meetings with too many participants and too few results, drawing on models that have emerged in the EU's Northern maritime regions. However, the EU as a whole will not agree to delegate the essential initiative on strategic matters to just its Southern coastal states – as has been made clear in recent exchanges between President Sarkozy and Chancellor Merkel. In addition the EU will also want to maintain a balance between its Northern and Southern priorities, and if the UMed becomes a new impetus for the South, an equivalent but different policy move can be contemplated for the EU's East European neighbours
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, International Political Economy, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Spain, Italy, Barcelona
  • Author: Richard Youngs, Michael Emerson
  • Publication Date: 05-2008
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The idea of an official organisation of democratic states wishing to promote democracy worldwide has surfaced periodically in recent years. In 2000 the Community of Democracies was inaugurated and survives as a body committed to supporting democratic change (and we comment on this little-noticed initiative further below). Now the notion is gaining further currency. US Presidential candidate John McCain has advocated a League of Democracies. And analyst Robert Kagan, an advisor to McCain, has recently made a contribution on the subject in the Financial Times. It is quite possible that the European Union will need to adopt a position on this proposal.
  • Topic: International Relations, Democratization, International Organization
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Publication Date: 11-2008
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This brief focuses on three issues that are especially important in the long-term development of the climate regime: (a) the challenge of the fragmentation of negotiations and governance systems; (b) the challenge of steering and evaluating novel types of privatised and market-based governance mechanisms; and (c) the challenge of designing architectures for global adaptation governance. These three core issues of fragmentation, privatisation and adaptation can be related to the overarching need to define the architecture of the post-2012 regime – and of any subsequent regimes that may follow a Copenhagen agreement.
  • Topic: International Relations, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Privatization, Treaties and Agreements, Governance
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Nathalie Tocci
  • Publication Date: 12-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper is the first in a series that will investigate “Who is a normative foreign policy actor?” It forms part of a new project intended to explore fundamental aspects of foreign policy at the global level, against the backdrop of a proliferation of global actors in the 21st century, following half a century with only one undisputed global hegemon: the US. The European Union is itself a new or emerging foreign policy actor, driven by self-declared normative principles. But Russia, China and India are also increasingly assertive actors on the global stage and similarly claim to be driven by a normative agenda. The question is how will these various global actors define their foreign policy priorities, and how they will interact, especially if their ideas of normative behaviour differ? This first paper sets out a conceptual framework for exploring these issues and defines 'normative' as being strongly based on international law and institutions, and thus the most 'universalisable' basis upon which to assess foreign policy. The foreign policy actor nevertheless has to be assessed not only on its declared goals, but also on the means it employs and the results it obtains. The truly normative foreign policy actor should score consistently on all three counts and in many different contexts, which will condition the extent to which normative policies are chosen, viable and effective. Subsequent papers in the series will apply this conceptual framework to five case studies on China, the EU, India, Russia and the US.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, India, France, Berkeley
  • Author: Sebastien Kurpas, Henning Riecke
  • Publication Date: 07-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Rarely has an EU Presidency been met with such high expectations as Germany's in the first half of 2007. With hindsight, it might be said that these expectations have largely been fulfilled. The agreement on a detailed mandate for the upcoming Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) under the Portuguese Presidency now offers a way forward for a Union that has been 'in crisis' since the French and Dutch no-votes. This report offers an overview of the German Presidency's aims in the various policy areas and makes an assessment of the achievements of its six-month term. A summary of the content and structural background of German EU policy is given, explaining developments since unification, Germany's motivations for European integration, public opinion on European integration and the stances taken by the key political players in Germany. Insight into the organisational structures of the Presidency appears in the annex.
  • Topic: International Relations, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Middle East
  • Author: Fabrizio Tassinari
  • Publication Date: 06-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Since the end of the cold war until 2004, the United States and the European Union held largely complementary views towards the European neighbourhood. Washington's foreign policy mantra was that of a Europe 'whole and free', where the dividing lines inherited from the cold war were to dissolve through the gradual inclusion of Central and Eastern Europe in the Euro-Atlantic family of nations. The EU concomitantly focused on its enlargement strategy, which ensured that the transition of the former communist countries would be benchmarked and monitored, in order to attain the ultimate goal of their full integration into the EU.
  • Topic: International Relations, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Sergio Carrera
  • Publication Date: 03-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The EU is developing a border management strategy aiming at an "integrated and global response" to the challenges posed by the phenomenon of irregular immigration through the common external borders. "The Southern maritime borders" constitute one of the main targets addressed by this strategy. On November 2006, the European Commission published a communication calling for the reinforced management of the EU's Southern maritime borders and for the maximisation of the capacities of the European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders of the Member States of the European Union – FRONTEX. This paper provides some reflections about these current policy approaches by looking at the nature, scope and practical implications of the implementation of the Integrated Border Management strategy and its relationship with a common EU immigration policy. After assessing the latest policy developments in these areas, we raise a number of questions about some of the functions and capacities carried out by FRONTEX, and present a series of vulnerabilities characterising the joint operations coordinated by this Community body taking the example of the operations HERA I, II and III in the Canary Islands (Spain).
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Migration
  • Political Geography: Europe, Spain
  • Author: Stefano Bertozzi
  • Publication Date: 02-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The European Commission has recently rekindled the debate about a possible future ruling on economic immigration, including the conditions and procedures for entry and residence, the principle of Community preference and the rights of third-country workers.The purpose of this paper is to recapitulate the main phases of Community action in the area of legal migration for economic reasons, starting with the political mandate given to the European Commission by the Tampere European Council. It moves on to outline the EU's current legislative programme to introduce policy instruments in 2007–09 for regulating the migration of specific categories of workers, some of which are aimed at easing the entry of highly skilled workers. It underscores the case for cohesive EU action in this controversial area in view of the need to improve the economic competitiveness of the EU and the risks posed by its ageing population.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Migration
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Elspeth Guild
  • Publication Date: 03-2007
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The collection, retention, manipulation, exchange and correction of personal data in Europe have once again become a matter of substantial interest. The last time the use of data constituted an important political issue in Europe, in the 1970s, the result (at the European level) was the Council of Europe's Convention for the Protection of Individuals with regard to Automatic Processing of Personal Data, which opened for signature in 1981. This Convention, to which all EU member states are party, still sets the standard for data use in Europe.
  • Topic: International Relations, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Elspeth Guild
  • Publication Date: 02-2007
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: On 5 January 2007, Elspeth Guild was invited by the European Commission Select Committee of the UK House of Lords to submit written evidence to assist that body in its scrutiny of the European Commission's annual legislative and work programme. This Policy Brief reproduces her submission in full.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Development
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Feng Geng
  • Publication Date: 10-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Since the 1960s, relations between the EU and India have developed rapidly. Nowadays, EU–India relations have a strong institutional architecture, including regular summits (political and commercial), meetings of ministers and senior officials and so on. Within this institutional framework, the EU and India have launched a comprehensive and fruitful cooperation. There is much active political collaboration, such as in the reform of the United Nations and the fight against terrorism, based on common values. Trade and investment between the EU and India are experiencing strong growth but lack symmetry.
  • Topic: International Relations, Political Economy, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Europe, India, Asia
  • Author: David Kernohan
  • Publication Date: 08-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Recent research from the World Bank and elsewhere suggests that openness to trade was a vital ingredient in the transition of the former Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) that joined the EU in May 2004. Current EU association agreements in South East Europe indicate that future enlargements may need to accommodate the remaining former Yugoslav Republics as well as the existing candidate countries. This paper examines persistent concerns that trade openness in South East Europe generally, and the former Yugoslav Republics in particular, is much less advanced than it was for the former CEECs in the mid to late 1990s. In particular we examine the issue of whether the present network of bilateral trade arrangements put in place under the Stability Pact has had much effect in boosting trade integration and whether trade within the region is currently at or below its potential. Given the small size of many of the countries in the region, we find that trade patterns remain problematic. In some cases they are smaller than might be expected but in several cases there is an overdependence on trade with old Yugoslav neighbours. In view of this, we consider that current plans to extend the Stability Pact matrix of bilateral trade agreements into a pan-regional trade association are likely to be inadequate. A better option, and one more likely to have a more immediate effect, would be to extend the present Customs Union with Turkey to include trade with the entire South East European zone of countries linked to the EU.
  • Topic: International Relations, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Europe, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Balkans
  • Author: Olga Shumylo
  • Publication Date: 03-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The negotiation of a regional trade agreement between the EU and Ukraine is the next significant step towards Ukraine's deeper integration with the West. Drawing on analyses of official and independent analytical materials and statistical data, this paper explores the form such an arrangement should take – namely, which of the existing models would be an appropriate model for EU-Ukraine trade relations: a Free Trade Agreement, a Customs Union or something along the lines of the European Economic Area Agreement.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Ukraine
  • Author: Oxana Gutu
  • Publication Date: 03-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The enlargement of the EU and the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) have revived the debate in the 'neighbourhood countries' around the need to converge legislation with EU internal rules and regulations, known as the acquis communautaire. The political incentive of accession to the EU, which has driven legal approximation in new EU member states, is missing for ENP countries. Yet, in the case of countries like Moldova, the cost of non-compliance is significant and translates into loss of existing export markets (e.g. in Romania) and the inability to expand into new markets (SEE countries and the EU). The situation is made still worse by a poor level of economic governance. As convergence with the acquis is a huge task, the key challenge for ENP countries is to determine the priorities, sequence and degree of legal approximation. This paper argues that the optimum degree and appropriate pace of convergence need to be driven by economic rationale and the development of the trade potential of the country. Thus, to secure benefits and avoid high costs for the economy, the legal approximation agenda will be moving along clearly identified economic integration scenarios, i.e. achieving a functioning market economy; taking full advantage of EU trade preferences (GSP and APTs), preparing for an FTA with the EU and, over a considerable number of years, gradually achieving a stake in the EU's Internal Market.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Moldova, Romania
  • Author: Daniel Gros, Stefano Micossi
  • Publication Date: 12-2006
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The European Union is suffering a deep crisis: disdain, disillusionment and distrust top the list of prevailing sentiments towards the European institutions, as was brought home dramatically by the failed referenda on the Constitutional Treaty in France and the Netherlands.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Moldova, Middle East, France, Georgia, Netherlands
  • Author: Eneko Landaburu
  • Publication Date: 03-2006
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The answer to the question posed in the subtitle is yes, indeed, there are concrete alternatives to enlargement. As there must be. Enlargement has been a key tool in projecting stability across our continent. But it is a reality that the EU cannot expand ad infinitum – everything has its limits. We must honour our present basic commitments, while strictly insisting on the criteria. One of these criteria is our own absorption capacity – it is clear that in some member states the pace and scale of enlargement is approaching the limits of what public opinion will accept. To overstretch, rather than consolidate, the Union would be detrimental not only for us but also our partners. These are all issues with which our leaders will struggle in Vienna in a few months time.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Development
  • Political Geography: Europe, Vienna
  • Author: Sebastian Kurpas, Justus Schönlau
  • Publication Date: 02-2006
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The assertion that the enlarged EU will become dysfunctional under the current treaty provisions has been one of the strongest arguments in favour of the Constitutional Treaty. Also after the two 'no' votes to the text, political leaders continue to see the necessity of institutional reform. Jacques Chirac and Tony Blair, neither of whom is keen to resume the ratification process as such, have stressed independently that the issue needs to be addressed in the near future. The British Prime Minister argues that the EU cannot function properly with 25 member states under today's rules of governance, adding "Having spent six months as EU president, I am a good witness of that." His French counterpart even predicted that the status quo would eventually "condemn the EU to inertia and paralysis."
  • Topic: International Relations, Diplomacy, Government
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Rym Ayadi
  • Publication Date: 02-2006
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Following seven years of painstaking and demanding negotiations, European bankers and regulators breathed a sigh of relief when the Capital Requirements Directive (CRD) finally got through the European Parliament on 28 September 2005, and was formally approved by the Council of Ministers of the 25 EU member states on 11 October 2005. The new CRD will finally apply the complex, risk-sensitive Basel II capital adequacy rules to some 8,000 European banks and some 2,000 investments firms in two stages, the first in January 2007 and the second one year later.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, Justus Schönlau, Julia De Clerck-Sachsse
  • Publication Date: 05-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The ratification process of the Constitutional Treaty has taken some unexpected turns, since the publication of our initial report. The situation has changed especially dramatically in France: within only 10 days the 'yes' camp slid from a previously stable figure of around 60% to below 50%. Our report had concluded that “if the reasons for a particular European compromise are not made transparent to the citizens, issues can be used in a divisive way at the national level”. It therefore called for a stronger European dimension in the national debates and expressed the hope that politicians and the media would play their role in stressing the common European significance of the European Constitution.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Europe, France
  • Author: Kari E. O. Alho, Ville Kaitili, Mike Widgrén
  • Publication Date: 04-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Economic convergence of the EU's new member countries (NMCs) towards the incumbent EU countries (EU-15) is of paramount importance for both partners, not only in terms of real income but also in nominal terms. In this study we build a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model, starting from the Balassa-Samuelson two-sector framework, then modify and enlarge it (with, among other things, endogenous capital formation, consumption behaviour and labour mobility) to address several other issues such as uncertainty, welfare and sustainability in terms of foreign indebtedness. At the same time we make flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) endogenous in order to evaluate the impact convergence has on the EU-15 and the inter action between the two regions through FDI. We find that in a general equilibrium setting, fears of adverse effects resulting from a relocation of EU-15 manufacturing to the NMCs are not well founded.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Economics, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Namkee Ahn
  • Publication Date: 03-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: We document in this paper the financial consequences of widowhood using both cross-section and panel data from the European Community Household Panel. The research reveals that there are large differences across countries. For example, widowed persons in Greece and Portugal have the lowest income – less than a half that of those widowed in Austria. Cross-country differences decrease somewhat if we consider household income net of housing costs, owing to the higher share of home ownership in low-income countries. Further, the income reduction upon widowhood is generally larger for widows than it is for widowers. The difference in income between the genders is largest in Denmark, Spain, Austria and Finland, where widower s enjoy an income that is more than 30% higher that of widows. The main culprit of the differences in income between widows and widowers lies in pension regulations. As today's elderly women an d those approaching old age spent their working years in an era where women worked at home, raised children and did not participate in the labour market, many depend mostly on survivorship pensions as their main source of income. Yet in most countries this kind of pension tends to be much lower than the applicable old-age pension, owing to the prevailing pension laws. Consequently, the financial situation of widows is unlikely to improve in the medium term unless pension regulations change.
  • Topic: International Relations, Demographics, Economics
  • Political Geography: Europe, Finland, Greece, Denmark, Spain
  • Author: Ville Kaitila
  • Publication Date: 02-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This working paper analyses conditional convergence in Europe and also tries to assess the impact that arises from integration. Using a pooled mean-group estimation method, we first analyse the conditional convergence of GDP per labour force in the area covering the 15 member states of the European Union (EU-15) in 1960-2002. Conditional convergence is well-documented for the EU- 15. Higher investment, lower public consumption and lower inflation have contributed positively to GDP growth. Deeper European integration is shown to have accelerated growth when inflation is not included in the specification, but not otherwise. The evidence on the effect of integration on growth is therefore mixed. We then apply the same method to estimate the growth of GDP per labour force in the new EU member states – the eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) – for the period 1993-2002. These countries are shown to have converged conditionally towards the average level of GDP per labour force in the EU-15. Higher investment and lower public consumption have also supported growth in the CEECs.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Jerzy Wilkin, Janet Dwyer, David Baldock, Hervé Guyomard, Dorota Klepacka
  • Publication Date: 01-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The ENARPRI partners agreed in February 2004 to prepare a precise specification for the scenarios that partners would attempt to model in their own national contexts, to examine the impacts of trade-related changes upon the multifunctionality of EU agriculture. This paper outlines a suite of five scenarios covering anticipated domestic (EU) policy under different possible outcomes from the Doha round, broadly based upon the status quo (with mid-term review), full decoupling of domestic support and full decoupling plus reductions in (decoupled) domestic support, with variants in relation to export subsidies and the scale of pillar 2 measures. In all cases it is recognised that national or sub-national models will require an additional level of national or regional specification before they can be run, and that each national team will be required to do this drawing upon their own domestic knowledge and discussion with relevant experts. Each of the models that will be used to undertake these analyses is then briefly reviewed to identify its general approach and the multifunctionality indicators that can be covered. These indicators are then set in the broader context that considers other potential indicators of multifunctionality and their rationales. The paper concludes with some additional commentary about the significant differences, and thus the difficulties, of attempting to undertake this exercise for any of the new member states.
  • Topic: International Relations, Agriculture
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, Justus Schönlau
  • Publication Date: 01-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Following the success of the EPIN survey on the European elections 2004 (EPIN Working Paper No. 11), the authors decided to use a similar approach for monitoring the current ratification process of the European Constitutional Treaty. Accordingly, the findings presented in this paper are based on the results of a survey conducted among national experts associated with the European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN). As such, they are inherently subjective, but nevertheless wellinformed. The report draws on survey data collected in 20 EU member states, supplemented by additional sources of information on the remaining countries where available. While the actual outcomes may prove our findings wrong in one respect or another, they do indicate interesting developments and differences in the respective member states. The added value of this EPIN survey lies in its broad comparative scope and analysis rather than its offering an in-depth assessment of each national debate. (For the latter, special country reports are envisaged at a later point in time.) The EPIN Ratification Monitor project plans to publish regular updates on the rapidly changing situation.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Europe
34. Plan B
  • Author: Richard Baldwin
  • Publication Date: 06-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The resounding French 'non' will have important consequences for French domestic politics. It may also change the way EU leaders proceed with future Treaties. But I do not believe that it will be the 'political tsunami' for the EU that many observers have predicted. Two reasons buttress this belief.
  • Topic: International Relations, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Europe, France
  • Author: Marius Vahl
  • Publication Date: 05-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: To describe the Transnistrian conflict as 'frozen' is becoming less and less appropriate. Although the conflict remains unresolved, there have been a number of significant and at times dramatic developments in recent years, both in the diplomatic efforts to negotiate a settlement, and in the underlying geopolitical alignments and political and economic structures sustaining the conflict. It is argued here that these changes are primarily because of the European Union.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Michael Emerson
  • Publication Date: 05-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: On the 10th of May the EU and Russia signed four 'roadmap' documents at summit level in Moscow, on the Common Economic Space, the Common Space of Freedom, Security and Justice, the Common Space of External Security and the Common Space on Research, Education and Culture. This was the culmination of two year's work since the May 2003 summit that decided in principle to create the four spaces as a long-term project. It was intended also to give new momentum to the relationship, after seeing that the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement of 1994 had not become a motor for anything very substantial, while the subsequent phase (in 1999) of swapping common strategy documents also led nowhere in particular.
  • Topic: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Roberta De Santis
  • Publication Date: 07-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The object of this study is to assess the role of trade in the transmission of currency shocks across geographically close countries. The analysis will focus on identifying and comparing the degree of vulnerability of new EU member states from the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) to currency shocks.
  • Topic: International Relations, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Daniel Gros
  • Publication Date: 04-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: In terms of meeting the fiscal Maastricht criteria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are better placed today than were some of the current euro area members from the “Club Med” (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) at a comparable point in time leading up to their joining EMU. The CEE-3 should thus be able to qualify for full membership by early 2006, following a decision by the EU as early as 2005.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: Europe, Greece, Poland, Hungary, Spain, Italy, Portugal