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  • Author: Imke Kruse, Florian Trauner
  • Publication Date: 04-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: With the Eastern Enlargement successfully completed, the EU is searching for a proper balance between internal security and external stabilisation that is acceptable to all sides. This paper focuses on an EU foreign policy instrument that is a case in point for this struggle: EC visa facilitation and readmission agreements. By looking at the EU's strategy on visa facilitation and readmission, this paper aims to offer a first systematic analysis of the objectives, substance and political implications of these agreements. The analysis considers the instrument of EC visa facilitation and readmission agreements as a means to implement a new EU security approach in the neighbourhood. In offering more relaxed travel conditions in exchange for the signing of an EC readmission agreement and reforming domestic justice and home affairs, the EU has found a new way to press for reforms in neighbouring countries while addressing a major source of discontent in these countries. The analysis concludes with the broader implications of these agreements and argues that even if the facilitated travel opportunities are beneficial for the citizens of the target countries, the positive achievements are undermined by the Schengen enlargement, which makes the new member states tie up their borders to those of their neighbours.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, International Political Economy, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Richard Youngs
  • Publication Date: 05-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The EU routinely asserts that the promotion of democracy and human rights is central to its international identity. However, while in some places the EU has a relatively strong record as a supporter of democratic values, it is failing to respond effectively to the emergence of a vastly more challenging environment for democracy promotion. This paper reveals serious limits across three strands of democracy policy – the magnitude of incentives offered in return for democratic change, the degree of critical pressure exerted for democratic reform and the scale of European democracy funding. Even where the EU is building on the initiatives it has pursued for the last two decades, the paper demonstrates that these policies fail to measure up to the challenges posed by the new international context.
  • Topic: Democratization, Human Rights, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Michael Emerson
  • Publication Date: 06-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: After the accession of Bulgaria and Romania in 2007 the European Union moved quickly to fill an obvious gap in its vision of the regions to its periphery, proposing the 'Black Sea Synergy'. The EU shows a certain degree of commonality in its approaches to each of the three enclosed seas in this region–the Baltic, the Mediterranean and now the Black Sea. While the political profiles of these maritime regions are of course very different, they naturally give rise to many common policy challenges, including those issues that are based on the technical, non-political matters of regional maritime geography. This paper sets out a typology of regionalisms and examines where in this the EU's Black Sea Synergy is going to find its place. While the Commission's initial proposals were highly 'eclectic', with various examples of 'technical regionalism' combined with 'security regionalism', there is already a diplomatic ballet in evidence between the EU and Russia, with the EU countering Russia's pursuit of its own 'geopolitical regionalism'. The EU would like in theory to see its efforts lead to a 'transformative regionalism', but the lack of agreement so far over further extending membership perspectives to countries of the region risks the outcome being placed more in the category of 'compensatory regionalism'.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Russia, Eastern Europe, Romania
  • Author: Michael Emerson
  • Publication Date: 08-2008
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The small war between Georgia and Russia from 8 to 22 August 2008 has shattered any remaining illusions over the frontiers of the normative map of Europe. All the primary parties have to be criticised: Russia for setting a trap for Saakashvili to fall into, the Georgian leadership for its astounding military and political blunder in falling into it, and the United States for having failed to restrain its protégé. The first consequence is that Georgia has paid the price of Saakashvili's folly, with the definitive loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The second consequence is triggered by Russia's continued occupation of strategic points in Georgia-proper, which means not peacekeeping but threatened strangulation of the Georgian economy and its role in the transit of oil and gas from the Caspian to the West. It also means that business as usual has become impossible, as already announced between NATO and Russia, and with more important decisions pending in both the EU and US. The third consequence is that the EU should immediately step up its policies to integrate Ukraine, with real perspectives of membership subject to the standard criteria. The fourth unknown consequence is how far this deteriorating process between Russia and the West will go. Russia may pretend, with its petro-power and wealth, to be immune from any actions by the West, but beyond the short-term it is vulnerable. Whatever these unknowns, already Russia has crossed a red line with its strategic occupation of Georgia-proper, rather than the option just to push Georgia out of South Ossetia. This latter option would have met with widespread understanding internationally. But with its chosen option Russia has placed itself in another category, which is a throwback to earlier times, and totally incompatible with the political and moral principles of modern Europe.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, NATO, War, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Eastern Europe, Georgia
  • Author: Maria Raquel Freire, Licínia Simão
  • Publication Date: 05-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper looks at the Armenian transition towards democracy, focusing on the internal and external dimensions of the process. Internally, we consider the decision-making structure, with particular emphasis on the role of leadership, the development of political parties and changes in civil society. Externally, our attention is focused on neighbourly relations and external actors, including international organisations, particularly the European Union (EU), and its specific instrument, the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). The paper aims to shed light on the democratisation process in Armenia and the role of the EU in this process, by looking at the relationship between Brussels and Yerevan, at the instruments and strategies in operation, and at the international context in which these changes are taking place.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Brussels
  • Author: Nicu Popescu
  • Publication Date: 03-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The EU can do little to achieve its policy objectives in its Eastern neighbourhood without facing the issue of secessionist conflicts. This paper deals with EU policy towards Georgia and the secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It discusses the reasons for and constraints on EU policies, their effects and perception in the secessionist entities. The paper concludes with recommendations on how the EU can contribute to conflict resolution in Georgia through a greater inclusion of the conflict regions into the European Neighbourhood Policy.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe, Georgia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia
  • Author: Vesna Pesic
  • Publication Date: 03-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Large-scale systemic state capture, which is the root of widespread corruption, is acquiring such proportions in Serbia that it may undermine the success of its transition. 'State capture' is defined as any group or social strata, external to the state, that seizes decisive influence over state institutions and policies for its own interests and against the public good. The appropriation of state institutions and functions by the political party leadership is being carried out at an alarming rate in Serbia, as supported by research data in this paper by Vesna Pesic, an International Policy Research Fellow. The phenomenon of state capture is explored in depth looking at its background, prevalence and variety of mechanisms in Serbia today. The author concludes with policy options and recommendations to help curb corruption, address the deep mistrust expressed by the Serbian people about their political system, and to pave the way for democratic transition.
  • Topic: International Relations, Civil Society, Government
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Serbia
  • Author: Hakim Darbouche
  • Publication Date: 03-2007
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's statement to Spain's El País1 that the idea of a 'gas-OPEC' should not a priori be excluded, adds to a series of twists, among which was Vladimir Putin's confirmation on 1 February that the idea of a gas cartel was an 'interesting one' worth considering further. Hitherto, this gas saga featured Russia, Algeria, the EU, NATO and Iran. The story revolves around Russian-Algerian mingling on gas matters, spurring European and Transatlantic concerns over the prospects of a 'gas OPEC'. At a time of increasing European dependence on foreign energy supplies, these developments have been interpreted as being part of a wider effort, led by Russia, to use energy as a lever to undermine European diplomacy. These allegations have been dismissed by Algeria and Russia, whose leaders insist that their cooperation is intended to optimise their benefits and those of their customers alike. This paper examines the underpinnings of these developments by assessing the likelihood of their culmination in a gas cartel and offers an insight into the potential policy choices behind them.
  • Topic: Economics, Energy Policy
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, Algeria
  • Author: Michael Emerson, Gergana Noutcheva, Nicu Popescu
  • Publication Date: 03-2007
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Conceived in 2003 and 2004, the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has now had two years of operational experience. This initial experience has seen a sorting out of the partner states, with Action Plans drawn up for five Eastern and seven Southern partner states. We would distinguish among these 12 states between the 'willing' and the 'passive'; and among the other partner states without Action Plans between the 'reluctant' and the 'excluded'. These groupings should be the basis for stronger differentiation in the policy packages offered by the EU. In general the political context now calls for a strong reinforcement of the ENP, since the benign situation of 2004 has given way now to a more menacing one, given threats to European values bearing down on the EU from all sides. The EU institutions recognise these needs in principle, and last December the Commission advanced many valuable proposals. 'ENP plus' is a term being used by the current German Presidency, without this yet being defined in a public document in operational detail. In our view, 'ENP plus' could mean: Plus an advanced association model for the able and willing partner states, Plus a strengthening of regional-multilateral schemes, Plus an upgrading of the standard instruments being deployed, and Plus the offer of an 'ENP light' model for difficult states or non-recognised entities.
  • Topic: Development, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Beata Huska
  • Publication Date: 01-2007
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: In May 2001, the 17-month insurgency of Albanians in Southern Serbia came to an end. In the Konculj Agreement, Albanians agreed to disarm and disband the Liberation Army of Presevo, Medvedja and Bujanovac (UCPMB) in exchange for the promise of amnesty for their fighters, the return of refugees, the creation of a multi-ethnic police force and the integration of Albanians into public institutions. After decades of official discrimination and exclusion from state institutions, the adoption of the Covic Plan, which foresaw the goals mentioned above, provided an opportunity to respond to Albanian grievances and win loyalty of the Albanian minority to the Serbian state. The plan drawn up by Nebojsa Covic, Deputy Prime Minister of Serbia in 2001, contained clear goals with deadlines, including “the integration of Albanians into the political, government and social system”, meaning into the police, judiciary, health services, education, municipal institutions, economy, etc. in proportion to their numbers.
  • Topic: Demographics, Government, Human Rights
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Albania
  • Author: Susan E. Penksa
  • Publication Date: 12-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The European Union Police Mission (EUPM) in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) represents a watershed development for the EU and its emerging European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). Never before has the EU organised and managed this type of stabilisation programme. In some ways, the launching of EUPM defined a new stage in the evolution of the EU itself, and certainly of the ESDP. An examination of the implementation of the EUPM in 2003-06 and the current planning for an EU mission in Kosovo suggests that a process of institutional change and learning has occurred among EU and national officials. At the same time, it is apparent that significant improvements are still necessary in the coordination between and within EU pillars as they relate to ESDP operations. To that end, this study focuses on five important challenges revealed by EU field operations in BiH: mission mandates; personnel expertise, recruitment and training; program design, implementation and assessment; reporting and decisionmaking procedures and structures; and the functions of EU representatives in the field (EU Special Representatives, Commission Head of Missions and Member States). Lastly, it also suggests the means to materially improve EU crisis response, paying special attention to lessons learned during the first EUPM and from EU efforts to address organised crime in BiH.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Fabrizio Tassinari
  • Publication Date: 11-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The controversies and ambiguities characterising the EU neighbourhood strategy are ultimately due to the fact that the wider Europe concerns the conceptual, strategic and spatial limits of Europe. It is in this wider Europe that the EU as process meets the EU as actor. It is here that its 'gravitational power' meets its 'normative power'. It is here that the sui-generis EU governance system meets its foreign policy capabilities.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe
  • Author: David Kernohan
  • Publication Date: 08-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Recent research from the World Bank and elsewhere suggests that openness to trade was a vital ingredient in the transition of the former Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) that joined the EU in May 2004. Current EU association agreements in South East Europe indicate that future enlargements may need to accommodate the remaining former Yugoslav Republics as well as the existing candidate countries. This paper examines persistent concerns that trade openness in South East Europe generally, and the former Yugoslav Republics in particular, is much less advanced than it was for the former CEECs in the mid to late 1990s. In particular we examine the issue of whether the present network of bilateral trade arrangements put in place under the Stability Pact has had much effect in boosting trade integration and whether trade within the region is currently at or below its potential. Given the small size of many of the countries in the region, we find that trade patterns remain problematic. In some cases they are smaller than might be expected but in several cases there is an overdependence on trade with old Yugoslav neighbours. In view of this, we consider that current plans to extend the Stability Pact matrix of bilateral trade agreements into a pan-regional trade association are likely to be inadequate. A better option, and one more likely to have a more immediate effect, would be to extend the present Customs Union with Turkey to include trade with the entire South East European zone of countries linked to the EU.
  • Topic: International Relations, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Europe, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Balkans
  • Author: Michael Emerson
  • Publication Date: 04-2006
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: In August 2005, President Saakashvili of Georgia and President Yushchenko of Ukraine met at Borjomi, Georgia, and decided to launch an initiative to promote democracy among a community of like-minded states of Central and Eastern Europe. This led to a meeting in Kyiv on 2 December 2005, of a wider group of countries of the Baltic-Black-Caspian Sea region, which adopted a declaration announcing the creation of a Community of Democratic Choice (CDC) as a governmental and non-governmental forum to promote the strengthening of democracy, human rights and civil society. The next meeting of the CDC will take place as a Baltic and Black Sea Summit in Vilnius in May 2006.
  • Topic: Democratization, Politics, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Georgia
  • Author: Willem H. Buiter
  • Publication Date: 03-2006
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: On October 3, 2005, Turkey officially started negotiations for membership in the European Union. Whether Turkey becomes a full member of the EU is likely to be a defining decision, both for the existing EU members and for Turkey. The regional - and geo-political consequences of success or failure of the negotiations, and its cultural and ideological impact, are likely to be even more significant than its economic consequences, although even from an economic perspective the stakes are very high. Turkey's population of over 70 million is larger than that of the ten countries that joined the EU on 1 May 2004 combined. Unlike the EU-25 (and in particular the ten new member states), the Turkish population is young and growing. Its present per capita income is lower than that of any of the EU-25 countries – about at the level of Romania and Macedonia, using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) estimates of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, with the right institutions and policies, Turkey could become a true tiger economy. But this is not guaranteed. With the institutions and policies of the second half of the 20th century, it could end up a mangy cat instead of a tiger.
  • Topic: International Relations, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Turkey, Eastern Europe, Romania, Macedonia
  • Author: Michael Emerson
  • Publication Date: 01-2006
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The central recommendation of the Amato report of April 20051 set the year 2014 as the target accession date for the whole of the Western Balkans, which would take the EU from the 27 (in 2007 or 2008) to 32 member states minimally, 33 with Turkey, and 35 in the event of independence for Montenegro and Kosovo. This scenario is in contradiction with the present mood of the EU following the French and the Dutch referenda, which rejected the Constitution that was itself designed to pave the way institutionally for further enlargement. The EU has now officially entered a period of profound reflection on its future, a process which cannot be hurried.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development
  • Political Geography: Turkey, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Montenegro
  • Author: Mohamed Hedi Bchir, Lionel Fontagné, Sébastien Jean
  • Publication Date: 11-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: In the background of the Doha Round of trade negotiations, this study proposes a CGE assessment of multilateral liberalisation of market access for non-agricultural products. The scenarios considered include the so-called 'Girard proposal' (with alternative choices for the coefficient involved), the removal of tariff peaks and complete liberalisation. This study is the first to take into account the difference between bound and applied tariffs, while considering all the enforced preferential trade arrangements and computing tariff cuts at the detailed product level (HS-6 classification). Although the liberalisation of market access for non-agricultural products is found to be welfare-enhancing at the world level, cross-country distributive effects prove significant. A soft liberalisation would not significantly reduce applied duties in developing countries, owing to their considerable binding overhang. By contrast, a deep liberalisation would entail fierce price competition among those developing countries that are largely specialised in similar sectors and in the same product quality range.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe
  • Author: Luca De Benedictis, Roberta De Santis, Claudio Vicarelli
  • Publication Date: 06-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the EU's eastern enlargement on the trade patterns of the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs)1 that joined the EU in May 2004. In particular, the paper investigates whether and how the EU free trade agreements (FTAs) with the CEECs affected centre-peripheral and intra-peripheral trade flows. It also evaluates whether the prospect of joining the EU had the added positive effects on the export flows of the CEECs that had been anticipated.
  • Topic: Development, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Daniel Serwer, Jacques Rupnik, Boris Shmelev
  • Publication Date: 01-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The Chairman recalled the reasons for holding this particular session. On the one hand, at the Thessaloniki meeting of the European Council (June 2003), the prospect was laid out of the Balkans being included, over time, within the European Union; hence, the title of the session. How that vision is to be fulfilled is obviously very much open to question, which is indeed one of reasons underlying the work of the new International Commission on the Balkans chaired by former Italian Prime Minister Giuliano Amato. On the other hand, short-term events are going to put the Balkans at the centre of European concerns over the coming months in the run-up to the final status discussions in mid-2005: the Macedonian referendum in early November, the deployment of European Union forces in Bosnia-Herzegovina (operation Altea) in December and the rising expectations of Kosovar Albanians following the October 2004 elections. To introduce the session three papers were presented.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Balkans, Macedonia
  • Author: Madalena Resende, Hendrik Kraetzschmar
  • Publication Date: 08-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Political parties are the backbone of any functioning representative democracy. They are the agents that compete in the political arena for public office by offering programmatic alternatives to voters. It is not surprising therefore that an analysis of countries that have failed to democratise shows political parties suffering from a severe pathology that renders them weak institutions. In both the eastern and the southern neighbourhood of the EU, a type of party has emerged, the 'party of power' characterised by its dependence on the state, the absence of ideology and the linkage with specific sectoral groups. Examples of such parties can be found in Ukraine during the reign of President Kuchma and in present-day Egypt.
  • Topic: Democratization
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Egypt