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1. The World’s Humanitarian, Economic, and Political Engagement with Afghanistan

Author:
Paul Fishstein and Aman Farahi
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The August 2021 fall of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and its replacement by the Taliban ended a two decade chapter of economic and social development. On top of an already weak economy reeling from COVID-19 and a multi-year drought, the overnight cutoff of most Western aid, freezing of foreign reserve funds, and effective severing of Afghanistan’s links with the global financial system plunged Afghanistan into multiple and overlapping humanitarian, economic, financial, and political crises of almost incomprehensible proportions. As of December 2021, 98 percent of the population lacked sufficient food and 90 percent were projected to be living in poverty. By summer 2022, the economy had shrunk by 20-30 percent. Afghanistan faces a daunting array of immediate security, humanitarian, and long-term development challenges. The Taliban’s restrictive social policies and refusal to move towards an inclusive government and the charged political environment dictates much of what can or cannot be done by the international community. The West’s central challenge is at once both moral and political: trying to walk a fine line between delivering humanitarian and economic assistance to relieve some of the effects of sanctions and isolation and help the Afghan people, while avoiding even the appearance of endorsing or legitimizing the Taliban. Workarounds so far have included re-purposing the World Bank-administered Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund, previously the main vehicle for funding Afghan government operations, to channel funding through United Nations (UN) agencies to non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to provide feeding, health, education, and other services. This paper highlights the significant challenges for the international community, among them: Relationship management Working with or alongside the Taliban Who performs the functions of the state? Channeling support away from the DFA and directly through the UN and NGOs can be effective for certain types of services (e.g., health, education), but this has its limits. International community cohesion, coherence, and capacity Finally, the authors highlight a number of recommendations, divided roughly into policy and operational considerations, for how, if not to resolve the impasse, to at least mitigate or get around it. These 14 recommendations assume that regardless of the Taliban’s distasteful policies and moral and technical shortcomings, the collapse of their rule would not be in anyone’s interest. There is no one to replace them, and the chaos and fragmentation that would follow would be far worse.
Topic:
Taliban, Afghanistan, Economy, Engagement, Humanitarian Crisis, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and Global Focus

2. An Age of Crises: Prospects for inequality and division

Author:
Roshni Menon
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Inequalities can shape, drive, and amplify crises and at the same time, be the consequence of crises. The double shock of the COVID-19 pandemic followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been accompanied by an uptick in income and social inequalities. Moreover, a world enveloped in a series of crises has become the grim backdrop for many of the current discourses on how to solve salient world problems. The complexity and force of how each individual crisis overlaps and interacts with, and sometimes worsens the impact of other crises—including rising levels of inequality and exclusion—is profound and damaging, requiring careful analysis of both consequences and solutions. For instance, surging inflation rates, which began in 2021, as well as the food and energy crises set off largely by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have precipitated and worsened the debt crisis in many lower income countries. Combined with the existential threat of climate change and related and prevalent extreme climate events, a perfect and potent storm of events have been set in motion: even if aspects of today’s cost-of-living crisis wane, their ripple effects will continue to reverberate, in some instances setting off political instability and social unrest in parts of the world. The lessons learned from these crises, and their interaction with inequality and exclusion will be critical to better prepare for the future, and to break the deadly spiral of crises and rising inequality. While disasters—both those created by people and generated by nature—have increasingly become a daily reality for many in different parts of the world, policies at the global, regional, and national levels, have yet to catch up with this new reality. Looking across six areas—food and fuel shortages, inflation, debt distress, extreme climate-related events, and political unrest—there are very few countries that escape the reach of at least one crisis. However, more alarmingly, many countries are exposed to multiple and compounding levels of economic, social, and environmental shock; which can intersect with underlying inequalities and vulnerabilities such that a vicious cycle of income inequality, increasing social stratification, and discontent spreads across societies and generations. New research from the Pathfinders team shows that in those countries for which complete data exists across six crises (90 in total), eight countries are at risk for being impacted by all crises at the same time. 72 out of these 90 countries (or 80 percent) are at high or moderate risk of suffering from at least three crises at the same time. If we limit the analysis to five crises (food price shock, inflation, extreme climate events, debt distress, and protests), 10 out of the 134 countries with complete data are at high or moderate risk of suffering from all five crises and 86 countries (65 percent) from at least three crises. This number may even be an underestimate as typically lower income countries have less capacity to collect data and tend to deal with multiple crises arising from debt and cost-of-living issues. In response to these multiple crises (or polycrisis), urgent, integrated, and coordinated policy interventions are needed, including even greater cooperation and commitment at the global level. Without a sharp change of course, a renewed recommitment to multilateralism and bolder action to address root causes, there will be little change for the better. There is an opportunity for committed countries to advocate for sustained and urgent action to respond to the immediate humanitarian needs of a great majority of the world’s population. Policy solutions can be geared towards the shorter and longer terms: The first includes an urgent set of instruments aimed at reducing suffering as soon as possible and a second set focused on achieving longer-term structural transformation to reduce vulnerability and promote sustainability.
Topic:
Inequality, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. From Rhetoric to Action: Delivering Inequality & Exclusion

Author:
Center on International Cooperation
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Inequality and exclusion are not destiny. Change is possible. Following three years of research, country visits, expert meetings, and debate, the Pathfinders’ Grand Challenge on Inequality and Exclusion has identified policy priorities for immediate and longer-term actions to tackle inequality and exclusion. The report draws on the lived experiences and desires of people across countries around the world. To understand citizens’ concerns about inequalities, their policy priorities, and their desire for change, we commissioned a public opinion survey in eight countries: Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico, Sierra Leone, South Korea, Sweden, Tunisia, and Uruguay. These opinion surveys show an immense preoccupation with societal divisions and a consensus that more needs to be done to address them. What is working to make progress on equality and inclusion? Countries and local communities that have made sustained progress towards more inclusive and equal societies have generally taken a three-pronged approach: They have delivered visible results that make a material difference in people’s daily lives, in areas such as social protection, housing and wages; they have built solidarity, through for example truth-telling exercises, police and justice reform and community empowerment; and they have secured credibility and sought to avert reversals by fighting corruption, broadening political power, and increasing the public financing needed for policy development.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Inequality, Survey, and Exclusion
Political Geography:
Canada, South Korea, Uruguay, Sierra Leone, Sweden, Mexico, Tunisia, Costa Rica, and Global Focus

4. What Works in Conflict Prevention?

Author:
David Steven and Gizem Sucoglu
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This paper compares examples of collaborations that have aimed to prevent violence and conflict. The focus is primarily on ‘at risk’ and ‘acute’ settings, but with a recognition of the need to access a broader range of universal approaches to prevention where possible.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Diplomacy, and Collaboration
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. The Number of Countries with Coups d’etats and Other Constitutional Changes in Government is Rising: How should donors stay engaged?

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Renata Dwan, Betty N. Wainaina, and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Last week, CIC released a major new joint report with Chatham House on aid to “politically-estranged” settings – countries where donor relations with national authorities are frayed or broken because of unconstitutional changes in government, internationally contested elections, and major sanctions. Development aid to these countries has been suspended or severely curtailed, often because of domestic pressures to disengage, leaving the problem to traditional humanitarian approaches. In this report, CIC and Chatham House argue that development engagement is needed, and outline the ways to do so without legitimizing unconstitutional regimes, in concertation with regional actors. This piece focuses on two major areas: Why should donors care in this current moment? What has been new in our thinking about the major challenges and solutions for how to work in these contexts?
Topic:
Government, Constitution, Multilateralism, Coup, and Donors
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Alternative Aid Modalities: Community development

Author:
Scott Guggenheim and Charles Petrie
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Economic sanctions and restrictions on development aid in fragile and conflict-affected states have become an increasingly prominent part of the international toolkit for dealing with regimes that violate international norms and rules or are beset by conflict. However, there is a well-known problem: sanctions and cessations of development aid often end up hurting the poor more than the rich, particularly the political elites who the sanctions are most meant to target. Donors try to limit the impact of sanctions on the poor through humanitarian assistance, usually run by United Nations (UN) agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). However, in all but the smallest countries, this is extremely expensive as well as a major organizational and logistical challenge. Most recently, situations such as those in Myanmar and Afghanistan have thrown the spotlight on the complexity of the discussion. In a world of no first-best solutions, a close look at empirical experience will show (provided certain pre-conditions can be met) that donors can partially bridge the challenge of simultaneously upholding human rights values and protecting the poorest from the economic fallout caused by sanctions. These solutions require close attention to unpacking complex environments and using a difficult-to-wield set of tools spread over diplomacy, economic power, and development aid. While not all risks can be eliminated, a variety of flexible tools already exists so that donors can help the poor in sanctioned and conflict-affected countries without undermining diplomatic goals of shunning the government elites or inadvertently financing insurgencies. With a growing number of donor-funded community programs in fragile or conflict-affected states, there are also donor concerns about legitimating national authorities, risks of financial diversion, and capture by armed combatants or local elites (full list of major concerns listed below). This paper highlights and addresses these concerns in detail and offers a series of recommendations, which in addition to good donor program design and management could mitigate some of the risks (but not fully eliminate them). This paper aims to present a case on how to use one tool—community-based approaches for delivering and monitoring aid—in fragile or sanctioned contexts, as community-based local governance type development models have been used successfully in a variety of fragile, conflict, and sanctioned countries. Additionally, this paper will extract real-world illustrations of how these approaches can address donor concerns on providing post-humanitarian aid to poor people without unintentionally undermining sanctions on illegitimate regimes. Because the case literature on delivering aid under sanctions is small, the brief includes illustrations taken from aid delivery in conflict-affected countries, where governments may not be under sanction, but deep concerns remain about aid capture or aid further fueling conflict. Finally, in addition to selections from the literature, the report draws from the personal and professional experiences of the two authors, who have overseen or managed large-scale community-type humanitarian, peacebuilding, and development programs in Afghanistan, Burundi, East Timor, Gaza, Indonesia (including Aceh and West Papua), Myanmar, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, and Syria, and have been part of discussions over development options for countries under sanction in Ethiopia and Sudan. In this paper, authors propose ten recommendations for donors coming out of this research on how they can incorporate community-driven approaches for aid in sanctioned and fragile states situations.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Sanctions, and Community
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Myanmar, and Global Focus

7. Managing Opportunities, Challenges, and Expectations for the New Agenda for Peace

Author:
Eugene Chen, Sarah Cliffe, Daniel Friedman, Bojan Francuz, Céline Monnier, and Margaret Williams
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Amongst the many elements proposed in the secretary-general’s 2021 report Our Common Agenda was the call for a New Agenda for Peace because “the world is moving closer to the brink of instability, where the risks we face are no longer managed effectively through the systems we have.” The United Nations (UN) system was invited to develop a New Agenda for Peace as part of the preparations of the Summit of the Future, and the New Agenda will be the subject of one of 11 policy briefs to be issued in advance of the September 2023 preparatory ministerial meeting for the Summit of the Future. The forthcoming Secretariat policy brief will be informed by consultations with member states and other stakeholders. However, as the Pact for the Future will ultimately be a member state document, the issuance of the Secretariat policy brief will mark the initiation—not the culmination—of the intergovernmental deliberations on what will be included in the New Agenda for Peace to be agreed by member states during the Summit of the Future in September 2024. This piece provides a historical glance at past UN reforms, identifies the primary challenges and opportunities the UN and its member states face as they undergo this process, and looks forward to the key priorities that can be taken up from a realistic and practical perspective. Highlighted is how the New Agenda for Peace “provides a rare opportunity for the United Nations to examine and reflect upon the totality of the peace and security work of the Organization to uncover and better understand the synergies and contradictions of the existing processes and structures.”
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Reform, Peace, and Instability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Rising to the Challenge: Building Peaceful, Just, Equal and Inclusive Societies in a Divided World

Author:
David Andersson
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This report analyzes the global state of play of SDG16+ while identifying tangible, cross-cutting solutions to advance its targets of peace, justice, equality, and inclusion universally. With both an eye to the SDG Summit and set against a context of SDGs backsliding and a polycrisis, it lays out six strategic approaches by which SDG16+ can and has been advanced, drawing upon regional, national, and subnational examples. These approaches highlight efforts to rebuild trust and reduce polarization, with people-centered policies speaking lived daily realities; demonstrate the need to build evidence on SDG16+ interlinkages and their application in practice, with better data as a driver for innovative change; unpack participatory approaches, including the meaningful inclusion of civil society and subnational actors, and make clear the need for smarter SDG16+ financing. It concludes with opportunities for urgently needed advocacy, policy development, and collaboration on SDG16+ in the immediate and medium terms within UN and IFI contexts. This publication is designed to complement other recent SDG16+ community partner reports, with key messages reflecting both an HLPF Pathfinders Member States Statement (with Colombia and Switzerland), as well as the statement prepared by the Global SDG16+ Coalition, co-drafted by the Pathfinders Secretariat with other members of the Coalition.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Sustainable Development Goals, Equality, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. The UN General Assembly 2023: The urgency of compromise on financing for development

Author:
Natalie Briggs, Symphony Chau, Sarah Cliffe, Faiza Shaheen, and Betty N. Wainaina
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
New York will gear up this month to receive over 100 heads of state and government at the United Nations General Assembly. Behind the scenes, rising geopolitical tensions caused by structural competition, by the invasion of Ukraine and by the internationalization of other conflicts and coups d’etats (notably in West and Central Africa) will dominate. The world faces the prospect of more frequent interstate conflict and economic confrontation, which would have devastating consequences for international cooperation on socio-economic prosperity, conflict, and climate. We expect China, Russia, and Western countries to seek to build out their respective alliances—as previously analyzed, there have been moves from the West to make concessions to the Global South and a heating up of development competition between China and the West. In this CIC Perspective piece, authors examine the “state of play” at this year’s United Nations General Assembly (UNGA78), and discuss what success would look like at the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Summit taking place, along with how we can create the necessary means for action.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Seven Questions to Consider in Designing, Implementing, and Supporting Effective Nationally Led Violence Prevention Strategies

Author:
Céline Monnier
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The New Agenda for Peace (NAfP) calls for a shift to focus more attention on national prevention strategies, with a universal and more upstream approach to preventing all forms of violence. This is good news. By calling for all member states to create these strategies, the secretary-general is assuaging member states’ fears that prevention may be used to meddle into their internal affairs or that the need for prevention can be stigmatizing. Member states are now in the driver’s seat of this agenda. The upcoming Summit of the Future is an opportunity to establish a coherent vision for the role and the relevance of the UN in prevention—aligning approaches across different parts of the UN system—and to provide tailored-made packages and expertise for “member states seeking to establish or strengthen national infrastructures for peace,” as promised in the New Agenda for Peace. As the first in a new series of policy briefs on “Operationalizing the New Agenda for Peace,” this piece is a conversation starter on the conditions to consider in designing, implementing, and supporting effective nationally led violence prevention strategies and it calls on member states to lead on the development of an evidence-based framework for nationally led prevention strategies, and for experts, practitioners, and UN staff to feed into this discussion based on research and past experiences. This brief is based on research on violence and on violence prevention strategies—particularly crime prevention, prevention of violent extremism, and infrastructures for peace—and interviews of experts and practitioners.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Violent Extremism, Violence, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. Lessons from the COVID-19 Crisis: 6 Opportunities to Strengthen Conflict Sensitivity across the HumanitarianDevelopment-Peacebuilding Nexus

Author:
Céline Monnier and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic, and efforts to control its spread—including lockdowns, social distancing measures, and border closures—have led to unprecedented health, humanitarian, and socioeconomic shocks worldwide. These shocks, in turn, are raising the likelihood that risks for many forms of violent conflict—crime, armed conflict, violent extremism—may increase. It is crucial for the United Nations (UN) to adopt a conflict-sensitive lens in all relevant operations across the humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding (HDP) nexus to prevent an increasingly volatile situation from deteriorating further.
Topic:
Development, United Nations, Conflict, COVID-19, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. Good Peacebuilding Financing: Recommendations for Revitalizing Commitments

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Paige Arthur, and Betty N. Wainaina
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
At a moment of intense global pressure due to the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, support for prevention and peacebuilding remains as vital as ever. This brief offers action-oriented recommendations to advance new and more inclusive approaches to peacebuilding financing on the eve of the UN High-level Meeting on Peacebuilding Financing.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Finance, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Innovations in Donor Bureaucracies and the Implications for Peacebuilding Financing

Author:
Ed Laws
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Donors face increasing pressure to do more with less, even in the most fragile contexts. This policy brief analyzes how organizational factors within governments create obstacles for good peacebuilding financing—and proposes options for overcoming them.
Topic:
Reform, Finance, Bureaucracy, Donors, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Global Focus

14. Can Emerging Technologies Lead a Revival of Conflict Early Warning/Early Action? Lessons from the Field

Author:
Branka Panic
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The early warning/early action (EWEA) community has been working for decades on analytics to help prevent conflict. The field has evolved significantly since its inception in the 1970s and 80s. The systems have served with variable success to predict conflict trends, alert communities to risk, inform decision makers, provide inputs to action strategies, and initiate a response to violent conflict. Present systems must now address the increasingly complex and protracted nature of conflicts in which factors previously considered peripheral have become core elements in conflict dynamics.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Conflict, Risk, and Early Warning
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Social Housing 2.0

Author:
Gianpaolo Baiocchi and H. Jacob Carlson
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The global housing crisis shows few signs of letting up. This report from Gianpaolo Baiocchi (Director of the Urban Democracy Lab, Professor of Individualized Studies and Sociology at NYU) and H. Jacob Carlson (postdoctoral research associate at S4 at Brown University) argues that the solutions can be found in "social housing." This report makes the case that social housing is desirable, viable, and achievable. The intractability of the global housing crisis requires new thinking and action, even if it draws on lessons that are quite old. As housing costs continue to skyrocket, policymakers and social movements have an opportunity to set their communities on a new path—one that guarantees a fundamental right to housing.
Topic:
Inequality, Crisis Management, and Housing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Refugee Legal Empowerment: From Accompaniment to Justice

Author:
Emily E. Arnold-Fernández
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This was a core finding of the Task Force on Justice’s 2019 Justice for All report. Two years into the global COVID-19 pandemic, that figure has likely risen. The global justice gap manifests in the lives of individuals in varied ways: 1.5 billion people had an unresolved justice problem, the Task Force found 4.5 billion people were excluded from the opportunities that law provides.
Topic:
Law, Refugees, Justice, Marginalization, and Empowerment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. Does Justice Mind? Understanding the Links between Justice and Mental Health

Author:
Pema Doornenbal
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Over the past two years, COVID-19 has deeply impacted mental health, both for individuals and entire communities, weakening trust between governments and people. This brief explores how justice systems and actors are interlinked with mental health and psychosocial wellbeing, and it makes the case for addressing the negative effects of these dynamics in a more systemized way.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Mental Health, COVID-19, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18. Addressing Inequality and Exclusion in the Pandemic’s Aftermath

Author:
Paul von Chamier
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
During the first quarter of 2022, signs continued to emerge that suggest the most acute stage of the pandemic is slowly drawing towards its end. COVID-19, a black-swan event that disrupted the world, brought into sharp focus systemic issues surrounding inequality and exclusion that well predated 2020. Societies that experienced deeper societal inequities before the crisis ended up being more vulnerable to both the infection spread and the related economic recession.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Inequality, COVID-19, and Exclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. The Relationship Between Justice and Equality

Author:
Sheelagh Stewart
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
At the heart of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is a vision of a “just, equitable, tolerant, open and socially inclusive world in which the needs of the most vulnerable are met.” This is a powerful vision. It is also part of a long history of global reform which seeks to make justice systems more inclusive. The first modern definition of the objective of law reform (now a century old) focuses on a government limited by law, equality under the law, and the protection of human and civil rights.
Topic:
United Nations, Sustainable Development Goals, Justice, and Equality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. Justice for All and the Social Contract in Peril

Author:
David Steven and Maaike de Langen
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The social and political dislocations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic threaten to break the social contract between states, communities, and people. Actions taken now — or a failure to make needed reforms — can have consequences that will be felt for decades. Justice is a critical sector in the relationship between states and people. Too often, justice systems have been responsible for fueling distrust and weakening this relationship. If justice actors are to play a central role in the recovery from the pandemic, helping their societies to rebuild in a fair, inclusive and sustainable way, people-centered justice is needed more than ever. This Pathfinders briefing, drafted by lead authors David Steven, Maaike de Langen, Sam Muller, and Mark Weston, together with more than 30 partners from around the world, publishes its third and final briefing on Justice in a Pandemic, a series examining the role of justice sectors in responding to the COVID-19 crisis. This briefing focuses on the role of justice in combating the negative social impacts of the pandemic.
Topic:
Justice, Recovery, Social Contract, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

21. Towards a Prevention and Peacebuilding Data Hub: Scoping the Future of Data Services and Capacity Building

Author:
Branka Panic and Paige Arthur
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The complex crises in our world—from rising instability linked to pandemic effects and climate change, to ongoing challenges of civil war, urban violence, violent extremism—require complex analysis and insights. Emerging technologies, data, and data science methods have been recognized as potential tools to help tackle some of these “wicked” problems across the humanitarian-development-peace nexus. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) potentially open a range of new opportunities for early warning and humanitarian preparedness, assessment and monitoring, service delivery, and operational and organizational efficiency. Advanced data analysis is the core of these efforts, and its success often depends on timely access, as well as the right quality and quantity of data.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Data, Machine Learning, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

22. Four reasons why the New Agenda for Peace should focus on nationally led violence prevention strategies

Author:
Céline Monnier
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Over the past few years, the prevention of violence has gained new momentum at the United Nations (UN). However, the UN still lacks a comprehensive strategy to transform these commitments into action. The UN Charter mostly focuses on the prevention of international conflicts, while lethal violence is nowadays mostly concentrated within countries. Both member states and the UN have increasingly acknowledged the need to use a different approach to prevention, including through the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goal 16 (SDG 16) and the UN-World Bank report, Pathways for Peace. However, the operationalization of this approach remains unclear. The New Agenda for Peace is an opportunity for the UN to clarify its approach to the prevention of violence within a country (violent crime, violent extremism, and non-international armed conflict).
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Conflict, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. What should leaders focus on during the United Nations General Assembly High-level week 2022 to help restore some popular trust in international collective action and multilateralism?

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Karina Gerlach, and Hanny Megally
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Leaders will come together in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) High Level Week starting September 19 for both a return to diplomacy and a test of diplomacy. At the last minute, the schedule for the meetings has been thrown into disarray by the death of the HM Queen Elizabeth II, with her funeral in London scheduled for September 19: this will draw attendance from many heads of state and governments and will mean that the earliest many leaders will arrive in New York for UNGA is the night of September 19-20. Nonetheless, these meetings offer the chance for a return to diplomacy because it will be the first high-level week in three years that approaches normal in-person attendance and meetings (although access to the United Nations [UN] building will still be restricted for all except diplomats and special invitees). Over 100 heads of state and 50 heads of government were confirmed, although it is not clear the extent to which this will change due to the UK funeral ceremonies. The current signals are that this will affect timings more than overall attendance: President Biden’s speech for example will shift to Wednesday, September 20 instead of the traditional Tuesday address. As for a test of diplomacy, this is because the sense last year that “things could hardly get worse,” after 18 months of the pandemic, has proven to be an underestimation: the invasion of Ukraine has made the political, security, and socio-economic landscape considerably worse than it was in September 2021. In these circumstances, CIC experts cover what leaders coming to the high-level week should focus on, focusing the following items that we hope to see transpire during high-level week in both public events and the bilateral/closed meetings.
Topic:
Diplomacy, United Nations, Multilateralism, and International Community
Political Geography:
Global Focus

24. 2022 Retrospective and Trends for 2023

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Marta Bautista Forcada, Symphony Chau, and Hanny Megally
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
One year ago, we started our analysis of trends in 2022 on a pessimistic note, including the long-lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic; macro-economic volatility; the risk of a war in Ukraine and escalating tensions over Iran and Taiwan; and increasing divisions between North and South and between China and the West. At the end of 2022, looking ahead to next year, we see some surprising grounds for optimism, even though many of the risks that we pointed to have come to pass. These trends include how multilateralism played a surprisingly successful role in Ukraine, as we consider the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the UN resolutions that passed relating to the conflict, along with agreements during the G20 summit in Bali. Other positive notes pertain to potentially transformative global agreements on damage and loss and international tax cooperation, and the absorption of longer-term lessons on inter-state aggression. However, on the negative end, we close the year facing multiple crises chasing the same (declining) pot of money—whether conflict, humanitarian, socio-economic or climate. For our team’s analysis of trends for 2023, there is a focus on nine areas where politics and economics are closely interlinked, and we expect this to be a dominant theme of 2023.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. Are we facing a wave of conflict in high-income countries?

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Daniel Mack, Céline Monnier, Nendirmwa Noel, Paul von Chamier, and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The recent wave of violent protests and unrest across the developed world – the storming of the US Capitol during the electoral college process and the riots in the Netherlands, among others – questions the assumption that high-income countries have become immune to large-scale internal political violence. Are we facing a new wave of high-income conflict? At a minimum, increased violent unrest, political assassinations, and domestic terrorism in the next ten years seem possible, unless governments focus on avoiding impunity and establishing shared understanding of facts, reducing inequality and prejudice, and building institutional resilience. This analysis examines whether these recent events augur a wider shift in conflict risk to high-income countries, akin to the shift seen from low to middle-income countries 20 years ago. Given these events, this analysis systematically reviews conflict risks in high-income countries, as well as offers a framework that has been widely applied in the developing world to examine the risk factors for violent conflict in wealthy countries, including second generation impacts of COVID-19.
Topic:
Conflict, Protests, COVID-19, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

26. UN-IFI Cooperation during Peacekeeping Drawdowns: Opportunities for Mutual Support

Author:
Paige Arthur
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
As increasing political and budgetary pressures have come to bear on UN peace operations in recent years, more attention has been paid to ensuring that drawdowns are undertaken in a way that sustains the gains of a mission’s presence. This policy briefing highlights a number of missed opportunities and argues for greater collaboration between the UN, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) ahead of a mission’s departure to build greater synergies between the country’s political and economic pathways. The brief begins by summarizing the economic challenges related to UN transitions, including diving deeper into the debate on whether or not these transitions create a “financial cliff”—in particular, in relation to official development assistance and foreign direct investment. We then describe three key opportunities for the UN, the Bank, and the IMF to leverage their respective mandates and comparative advantages during mission drawdowns, seizing the moment around transitions to support a country’s pathway to peace in ways that also lessen its economic burdens and supports key reforms. These opportunities include: Generating better alignment and planning between the three institutions in transition moments, with a focus on maintaining and strengthening peacebuilding gains while also seeking to unlock broader economic opportunities; Collaborating across areas of expertise to assess budgetary and resourcing gaps that may prove crippling to a country’s emergence from fragility, if not addressed; Activating levers for additional peacebuilding financing and to support reform, from the UN’s PBC and multi-partner trust funds, to IMF support to improve access to financial markets, to the sensitive use of the World Bank’s new FCV envelopes in IDA19 . The brief is based on desk research as well as interviews with a small number UN, World Bank, and IMF representatives involved in the transition process in Timor-Leste, Côte d’Ivoire, and Liberia, as well as the expected transition in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, Reform, Multilateralism, Peace, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27. How can we work towards economic recovery for all? Financing for Development: the issues, challenges, and opportunities in 2021

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Karina Gerlach, and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
2021, we all hope, will be the year of recovery. If COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out at scale, including in the developing world, global economic recovery will be large. But that in itself ensures neither that all countries will be included in the recovery, nor that all people within each country will see the gains. A rising tide, as we have seen only too well since US president John F. Kennedy first used the phrase in 1963, does not lift all boats. Elsewhere, CIC has analyzed the high demand for transformative policies in high- and low-income countries alike since the COVID-19 crisis began, including policies for domestic action on inequality and socioeconomic exclusion. This piece takes a more global view and considers how to ensure that all countries benefit, and examines the issues, challenges, and opportunities in financing for development. It looks first at the key political messages that explain why 2021 should be a year of urgent, ambitious global action for shared economic recovery; secondly at the measures under discussion (which are expanded in an annex); thirdly at the political interests at play; and fourthly at foreseeable scenarios for agreement. Last, we outline the calendar of relevant policy meetings this year and the challenge of orchestrating progress between them.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, Finance, Multilateralism, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. Mental Health and Psychosocial Support to Sustain Peace: Four Areas to Explore for Improving Practice

Author:
Paige Arthur and Céline Monnier
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
After experimenting with months of lockdown and imposed social distancing measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, people everywhere now have a more immediate understanding of how prolonged crisis can create challenges for both individuals’ mental health as well as maintaining the social fabric of communities. However, social fragmentation and mental distress created by adverse environments are not new, nor are they limited to COVID-19. Gross social injustices or armed conflicts have provoked wide-spread mental suffering, broken down social norms, and undermined social cohesion since time immemorial. Generations grow up in the midst of violence, normalizing it, or losing capacity to trust others or their institutions. Hence, neglecting the psychosocial impacts of social injustices and violence on the individual and society undermines other efforts to build peaceful societies. Nevertheless, the use of mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS) approaches to build peace or prevent violent conflict remains anecdotal and ad hoc. This paper summarizes the existing arguments for why MHPSS should be more systematically used to sustain peace, and offers four opportunities to use MHPSS approaches in sustaining peace efforts at the UN: Support national capacities; Integrate MHPSS as a normal part of sustaining peace strategies; Increase expertise on MHPSS as part of sustaining peace; Creative partnerships to support an integrated approach.
Topic:
Mental Health, Peace, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

29. It’s Time to Go Back to Basics of Governance

Author:
Nanjala Nyabola
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic is an opportunity to re-evaluate the principles or ideas that are at the heart of theories of government, that is the fundamentals of governance and public theory. What is government for, but also what should government do and how. Engaging with the crucial philosophical questions of governance is integral to building back better: going back to basics is a major step in figuring out how to prevent mistakes from happening again. The social contract is one such principle: the idea of a social contract is central to answering the question of what governments are for: explaining why people obey laws, providing answers to why we live in societies, and why we abide by social rules and norms. Recognizing the ongoing debates, national and international, around the meaning and origins of the term social contract, this paper by Nanjala Nyabola tries to point to some of the important thinking from the south and from non-western sources and traditions that have helped shape modern understanding of social contract theory. It is not intended to be a comprehensive review, in such a short paper, but rather a selection that reflects the richness and variety of such sources and how they have impacted thinking throughout the ages. Overall, looking at ideas of social contracts outside Western philosophical tradition reminds us that it is not just about the form of the social contract or that all political organizations must be identical. These theories also remind us that compulsion and punishment are not a strong foundation for strong systems of governance. We have to create societies that people want to live in.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Reform, Fragile States, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. Recognizing Communities: Local Level Responses to the Pathfinders Grand Challenges

Author:
Tara Moayed
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Communities are not homogenous. Within a single community, there are often divisions along class, ethnic, and gender lines. Further, not all communities are the same. Dynamics from one community to the next can widely differ, including power relations, land allocations, gender dynamics, mobility, and the level of government influence. James Scott, in Seeing Like A State, showed how much of the vocabulary of state administration carries with it the mechanisms to disempower local authority and invest it in state agents who can then wield state authority. Rebalancing this relationship requires finding ways to overcome the monopolies over information, decision-making, and convening power that state agents have, particularly in systems that emerged from an extractive colonial context. Ignoring these dynamics when designing a CDD project will most likely result in elite capture, and possibly lead to local conflict, increased inequality, and erode trust between citizens and the state. This research paper argues the importance of the role of the community within the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies discussion over inequality. The paper’s case studies are based largely on government-led community-driven development (CDD) programs that aim to ensure recognition of the complicated dynamics within the community itself. Unless the heterogeneity of communities is considered and fostered through an inclusive design and facilitation process, no program or project can hope to impact inclusion, empowerment, and the citizen-state relationship. A deep understanding of community dynamics and good facilitation are prerequisites for any CDD model to have a positive social impact.
Topic:
Citizenship, State, Community, Society, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

31. Inequality, Lockdown, and COVID-19: Unequal Societies Struggle to Contain the Virus

Author:
Paul von Chamier
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
There is nothing equal about COVID-19. It is now well established that poor and underprivileged social groups have absorbed most of the pandemic’s negative impact. However, the connection between COVID-19 and inequality might run even deeper. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, one additional point of the Gini coefficient correlated with a 1.34 percentage point higher rate of weekly new infections across countries. This difference in infection rates compounds like interest every week. This means that after twenty-one weeks of the pandemic, just one additional Gini å correlates with an approximately 1/3 higher overall number of cases in a country. More equal countries might enjoy an “equality dividend” that is associated with more shock resilience during the ongoing crisis. This new research from CIC sought to understand if pre-existing systemic inequities could be linked to higher COVID-19 infection rates, examining infection rates in 70 countries from mid-March 2020 through early August 2020, or what is widely seen as the first 21 weeks of the pandemic. It also studied these nations’ levels of inequality and other potential predictive variables: government efficiency (a measure indicating quality of public services and civil service capability), urban population share, share of the population over the age of 65, lockdown measures (calculated by stringency), and geographic mobility (a population’s physical movements as measured by Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports). The study tracked inequality by using the “Gini Coefficient,” a commonly used metric for measuring income inequality within nations--or, specifically, how far a country’s wealth or income distribution deviates from a completely equal distribution. Under this calculation, the higher the coefficient, the greater the income inequality within that country.
Topic:
Inequality, Resilience, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Society
Political Geography:
Global Focus

32. Solidarity Taxes in the Context of Economic Recovery Following the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Attiya Waris
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
There are multiple examples of solidarity taxes imposed across country contexts over previous decades. The solidarity taxes that were levied were done to mitigate effects of a crisis such as a pandemic, as well as rebuilding of nations that had been affected by world wars (examples include Zimbabwe and Germany). Considering the renewed interest in solidarity taxes in the wake of COVID-19, author Attiya Waris reviews the history of solidarity taxes, and discusses key lessons from the past, in addition to drawing these lessons and findings into policy reccomendations moving forward.
Topic:
Tax Systems, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Germany, Zimbabwe, and Global Focus

33. The Way We Voluntarily Pay Taxes

Author:
Ricardo Fuentes-Nieva
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
“Taxes are what you pay for a civilized society” stated US Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes in 1927. Time has shown that “civilized” means better lives and livelihoods for people where there is a solid tax base and collection–a necessary although insufficient condition for a society where people feel safe, heard, and participant in the decisions of the nation. A government that can efficiently collect taxes is a government with a solid administration and with legitimacy based on the fact that citizens pay their taxes by a combination of laws and a sense of duty and belonging. Paying taxes involves legal and moral obligations. The standard economic model for tax compliance assumes a cost-benefit calculation where someone balances the cost of being caught cheating the tax systems versus the benefit keeping some money hidden to the tax authorities. Yet there are other important reasons why people pay taxes that are not captured by a purely rational calculation. This background paper provides a framework that channels tax morale via trust and fairness directly and three elements for each one indirectly; trustworthiness of the government, reciprocity, and transparency/accountability for trust and three types of justice for fairness: distributive, procedural and retributive. This paper also makes a special distinction to the issue of corruption and how it relates to the elements within this framework. This paper will discuss the evidence on voluntary tax compliance, trust, and fairness, and the set of policies and actions that affect different mechanisms. It will provide a new framework based on the literature about the drivers of trust and fairness, with particular attention to the issue of corruption and also provide historical examples where specific interventions have successfully strengthened the tax system. Finally, it will provide ideas on how to identify the best sequence of interventions for increased tax morale in a specific context.
Topic:
Citizenship, Tax Systems, Peace, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

34. Bridging the Silos: Integrating Strategies across Armed Conflict, Violent Crime, and Violent Extremism to Advance the UN’s Prevention Agenda

Author:
Céline Monnier and Daniel Mack
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The consequences of violence worldwide are dire. More than half a million people die from violent deaths each year. In 2019, violence cost the global economy $14.5 trillion USD, or $1,909 USD per person. Countries with armed conflicts account for 80 percent of humanitarian spending. Beyond these cold numbers, the human toll of violence results in the suffering of families, trauma-affected communities, and increased fear and hopelessness. Different types of violence—such as crime, violent extremism, and armed conflict—are often interlinked and share risk and resilience factors. Although currently siloed, the UN system has the capacities and knowledge to develop approaches to prevention that cut across interlinked forms of violence. This policy paper makes the argument that the UN can and should adopt a more integrated violence prevention strategy across these three forms of violence. It draws from desk review of UN and academic documents, interviews with UN staff working on different types of violence prevention across the UN system, and a workshop among them. The paper discusses why there is a need for more integrated prevention approaches across different types of violence, what benefits that would bring, and what challenges need to be overcome first. It concludes by making four recommendations: governments should use the SDG 16.1 framework to bring actors together at national level; member states should ask the UN to develop evidence-based guidelines on prevention for countries to implement themselves; the UN should initiate a strategic dialogue at headquarters between fields to better identify commonalities in approaches; and country teams should develop an integrated strategy with specialized sub-strategies.
Topic:
United Nations, International Security, Peace, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35. Shared Capital Initiatives – for Redistribution and Recognition

Author:
Sanjay Reddy
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Shared capital, defined as a broadly distributed pattern of rights over productive assets, can be a powerful instrument to address economic and social inequalities. We argue that initiatives to bring about shared capital can foster both redistribution and recognition, and thereby bring about more inclusive and peaceful societies. Based on experience, we suggest moreover that they are feasible and can be advanced by suitable policies and actions—at local, national, and global levels. Shared capital can involve distribution of various rights of an asset, including those of use, control, income, and transfer. This paper considers nine cases which feature some experience of shared capital involving various kinds of rights being distributed and relate these to different kinds of assets. In almost every case, the state has an important role to play in facilitating the distribution of rights.
Topic:
Regulation, Inequality, Peace, Sustainability, Capital, Redistribution, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

36. Social Contracts: Embracing a Just Technological and Energy Transition

Author:
Ian Goldin
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Social contracts determine what is to be provided and by whom. In democracies, political processes determine these outcomes, with the extent to which individuals, communities, cities, businesses, governments, and other actors and institutions provide education, health, security, infrastructure, and justice to shape what comes to be understood as the social contract. Whether prevailing social contracts produce desirable consequences, such as human rights, individual freedom, self-determination, human development, prosperity, and equality reflects their efficacy. What is considered an effective contract in the US or Europe, may however be viewed very differently in China, with the priorities and norms associated with shaping social contracts, as well as the means to achieve them, varying from country to country and over time. In this brief, author Ian Goldin shows that many existing social contracts are inadequate and require renewal to overcome countries’ failures to address the needs of the majority of their citizens. New pressures on societies arising from the pace of change associated with the technological and energy revolutions have created an urgent need to build new social contracts which ensure that no one is left behind. This need has been made all the more urgent by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has shown the extent to which large parts of society—informal sector workers, uninsured self-employed, unemployed, migrants, and others—have fallen by the wayside due to outdated or non-existent social contracts. Establishing secure and comprehensive social contracts is not synonymous with the establishment of a welfare state, as this is only one way to secure effective social contracts. How welfare states adapt to meet the new technological and energy transition, and which other models may serve to build effective social contracts is a key question.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Peace, Justice, Social Contract, Transition, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

37. Essential Workers

Author:
Ian Goldin
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the extent to which we rely on essential workers. Around the world, health workers have been greeted by clapping, but this has not translated into improvements in their working conditions or pay. On the contrary, as COVID-19 cases and deaths have mounted, so too have the pressures and fatalities among health and other essential workers. A new deal for essential workers is not only the right thing to do on ethical and other grounds. It is in everyone’s self-interest. Without a new deal for essential workers, societies will not be able to respond to the intensifying cycle of crises that arise from an increasingly complex, interconnected, and unstable world. Whether it is a natural disaster, large-scale terrorism, geopolitical hostilities, or another pandemic, it is only a matter of time before society must again face down a crisis of unprecedented scale. To build resilience, we need a well-trained, deeply committed, and full complement of essential workers who will rise to the challenge. A new deal for these workers should be seen as a central tenet of creating more resilient economies, and an investment to reduce risk and future proof our societies. In order to close the widening divide between the rhetoric and reality, author Ian Goldin argues in this policy brief paper that a new deal is required for essential workers and begins by defining essential workers and laying out the key facts around the prevailing socioeconomic background for such workers. It then draws on the experience of mitigating and compensating for risks in other socially necessary but hazardous occupations, such as the military, and uses this to define the contours of what a new deal for essential workers should look like.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Peace, Justice, COVID-19, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

38. Employment Transitions

Author:
Ian Goldin
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The world of work is undergoing a fundamental transformation that will impact on workers and job seekers everywhere. Among the key drivers of this change are the climate emergency, demographic shifts and technological revolutions. Far from heralding better lives, the employment transition which was created by the industrial revolution led to immense hardships, rapidly rising pollution and heightened levels of poverty, malnutrition, and civil strife, culminating in the French and other revolutions. Today we are faced with an even more rapid, radical, and wide-ranging transformation of work, which threatens to be as disrupting. This time, however, we have the means to analyze and prepare for change. The purpose of this research paper is to identify how employment is being transformed and to examine the options for a just transition, which will lead to improvements for workers around the world. Author Ian Goldin begins this paper by identifying the challenge we are facing. It then defines employment transitions and lays out the weaknesses of current models of employment. Finally, it suggests policy options which tackle transitional assistance for workers, aiming to draw overall conclusions on what works in different economies.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Employment, Transition, and Workforce
Political Geography:
Global Focus

39. Learning from COVID-19: How to make care central to economic policy around the world

Author:
Ruth Pearson and Eva Neitzert
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
After decades of neglect, the COVID-19 pandemic has made visible the vital role that the care economy plays in the functioning of economies and societies—and highlighted the deep crisis at the heart of it. Care recipients and providers of care have been on the COVID-19 frontlines, and the ability of governments to mount an effective response to the pandemic has been hampered by decades of policies that undervalued and neglected the care economy.
Topic:
Economic Policy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

40. The Applicability of Transitional Justice in Pre-Conflict Contexts

Author:
Pablo de Greiff
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The current moment can be characterized, politically, in terms of two macro-level phenomena, a lurch towards populism (of the left and the right) on the part of many leaders (and eventually, their followers), and simultaneously, unusually large popular mobilizations in favor of progressive causes. These seemingly dilemmatic factors arguably share a common underlying cause, namely, great lack of trust in the familiar mechanisms of political representation—a lack of trust which itself has deeper roots in increasing inequality and dysfunctional forms of the politics of recognition.
Topic:
Inequality, Populism, Transitional Justice, and Pre-Conflict Contexts
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41. From Regressive Subsidies to Progressive Redistribution: The Role of Redistribution and Recognition in Energy Subsidy Reform

Author:
Tara Moayed, Scott Guggenheim, and Paul von Chamier
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Energy subsidies are one of the few domains where there is a near full-throated consensus among progressives, governments, and economists over the need for reform. Nearly everywhere, energy subsidies are regressive, vastly favoring the car-and energy-consuming parts of the population that are the least in need. The costs of these subsidies can vary, but in many countries, they represent a large fiscal burden. Prior to its 2005 reforms, for example, Indonesia's fuel subsidy was nearly the same amount as its health budget and its targeted anti-poverty programs combined. From the perspective of global climate change, few economic policies are as damaging as the direct and indirect contributions of fossil fuel subsidies.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Reform, Fossil Fuels, and Subsidies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. A Civil or Uncivil Civil Society?

Author:
Liv Tørres
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Civil society is part and parcel of the institutional architecture that will be crucial to help us out of our current crisis of staggering inequality, pandemic trauma and required recovery. Yet, civil society is large, complex, fragmented, and polarized. It gained renewed and considerable attention during, and after, the ‘Third Wave’ of democracy in the early 1990s when trade unions, professional organizations, women’s and civic organizations, as well as religious organizations and churches in many countries mobilized for democratic change. This was, of course, not the first nor the last period of civic action and mobilization. Civil society has, however, changed dramatically over the past decades. The number of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) has grown. Membership in civil society organizations has kept up, but the meaning of membership has most probably changed. Civic space is under considerable pressure, while social movements, activism, and protests have increased. All in all, civil society now represents a wide variety of actors with different governance structures, with/without membership, varying in size and agenda.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, NGOs, and Participation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

43. A “Hidden Front” in the Battle Against COVID-19: How Behavioral Data is Helping Contain the Pandemic and Improve Policy

Author:
Paul von Chamier and Neil Martin
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
COVID-19 has provided a sharp reminder of the key role citizens’ perceptions and attitudes play in shaping the outcomes of public policy. This experience is changing the way governments use data to combat the pandemic and set priorities for the recovery.
Topic:
Health, Recovery, Data, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

44. Ecosystem Mapping: The State of Play and the Path to Creating a Community of Practice

Author:
Branka Panic
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
How can cutting-edge approaches to data—like advanced data science methods, quantitative methods, predictive analytics, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and natural language processing (NLP)—help inform peacebuilding and conflict prevention? In 2019 and 2020, the Center on International Cooperation convened researchers and practitioners for a series of workshops on Data for Peace and Security highlighting practical applications of these new approaches in the peacebuilding field. Now, we are continuing this work through a new initiative on Data for Peacebuilding and Prevention, which will include a series of monthly Data for Peace Dialogues. This report, launched at the first virtual dialogue, lays out the state of the field and provides recommendations on how best to grow the field effectively. The report maps and analyzes the existing global ecosystem in the field of data for peace and prevention. It highlights multiple examples of relevant initiatives throughout the world utilizing big data, data visualization, AI, ML, image recognition, and social media listening. It also discusses technical challenges impacting all actors, such as the lack of data or lack of high-quality data, lack of access due to security reasons, and data colonialism, as well as the ethical considerations brought on by exponential technologies (security, accessibility, transparency, safety, trust, bias, and justice), and some specific challenges for data-driven approaches to peacebuilding.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Fragile States, Crisis Management, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

45. COVID-19, Election Governance, and Preventing Electoral Violence

Author:
Sarah Cliffe
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a global impact on the conduct of elections, with countries and territories across every region affected. Governments and electoral authorities have responded with innovative practices—but the challenges posed by the pandemic have also revealed gaps and weaknesses that must be addressed. Lessons from the COVID-19 era can help with preparedness for future challenges such as holding elections in the wake of natural disasters or in highly polarized contexts. In this briefing, Kevin Casas-Zamora, the Secretary-General of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, joins CIC's Sarah Cliffe and Nendirmwa Noel to take a look at how countries have handled elections during the pandemic so far, exploring options for ensuring good election governance and preventing electoral violence. The briefing examines decisions about postponing elections or holding them as scheduled, as well as changes to the campaigning and voting processes due to public health measures. It also addresses impact on turnout, lessons on the conduct of credible elections during COVID-19, lessons for preventing election-related violence, and approaches to combat electoral misinformation and disinformation.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Violence, Peace, Humanitarian Crisis, COVID-19, and Society
Political Geography:
Global Focus

46. COVID-19 has a postcode: How urban housing and spatial inequality are shaping the COVID-19 crisis

Author:
Jeni Klugman and Matthew Moore
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
COVID-19 has underlined that spatial inequality is relevant—and costly—everywhere: not only in developing countries. The pandemic has exposed sharp inequalities in prosperous cities, such as New York and San Francisco, as well as in slums and informal settlements in developing countries such as Kenya and Iran. For an estimated 1.4 billion people living in informal settlements, home is crowded, inadequate, and unsafe. In the words of one observer, “[w]ith COVID-19, we are all in the same storm. We are not all in the same boat.” This paper presents the results of a rapid appraisal carried out in May 2020. It surveys how existing urban inequalities have played out in practice, how spatial inequality has shaped the repercussions of COVID-19, and how housing-related program and community responses have helped close—or exacerbated—these gaps. It also outlines the opportunities and prospects for longer term reforms. While data and empirical analysis are still nascent, academic, government, and civil society groups, as well as news outlets, have quickly ramped up efforts to document and study the pandemic and its numerous effects. We assess emerging evidence about how the COVID-19 pandemic’s impacts reflect residential segregation, including how they differentially affect renters, people who live in informal settlements, and the homeless. The COVID-19 crisis calls for rapid and innovative responses to address strains on lives and livelihoods. Our review identifies many promising emergency responses—from temporary eviction moratoria to cash transfer programs—aimed at mitigating COVID-19’s immediate impact.
Topic:
Inequality, Fragile States, Crisis Management, Cities, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

47. The New Secretary-General Report on Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace: Prevention Back on the Agenda

Author:
Paige Arthur, Céline Monnier, and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, the newly released secretary-general’s report on peacebuilding and sustaining peace contains, as usual, a wealth of examples of the steps that the United Nations (UN) system is taking to implement the sustaining peace resolutions. It also suggests a welcome and surprising finding: the conflict prevention agenda—once thought to be on life-support at the UN—has found new vigor. This briefing examines the new report, finding that it moves the prevention agenda forward in several key respects, from deepening political buy-in among member states and partners, to a greater embrace of conflict-sensitive approaches in the field. The briefing also identifies key opportunities for prevention to take root in the UN’s practice—including continued strengthening of expertise on prevention; deepening partnerships with the IFIs; leveraging links with violence reduction initiatives, especially relating to SDG16; focusing on area-based approaches to address multiple risks; and more action on humanitarian-development-peacebuilding nexus approaches.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

48. The Challenge of a Lifetime: Ensuring Universal Access to COVID-19 Health Technologies

Author:
Carlos Alvarado Quesada, Michael D. Higgins, Retno Marsudi, Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Winnie Byanyima, Fitsum Assefa Adela, James Love, Mariângela Simão, Alberto Rodriguez, and Sarah Cliffe
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
On September 25th, during the 75th anniversary of the United Nations, leaders from around the world came together to call for a fair and equitable approach to the development, production, and distribution of vaccines for COVID-19. This high-level event, hosted by the president of Costa Rica and co-sponsored by the World Health Organization, UNAIDS, and CIC/the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies, explored ways to ensure universal access to COVID-19 health technologies.
Topic:
United Nations, Peace, Humanitarian Crisis, and governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

49. The UN’s Pandemic Response: The Beginnings of a Real Global Plan?

Author:
Leah Zamore, Knut Gerlach, and Ben Oppenheim
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Describing the coronavirus pandemic as a “global health crisis unlike any in the 75-year history of the United Nations” the UN has in recent days called for the launch of a large-scale, coordinated, and comprehensive multilateral response to combat the virus and its attendant economic and social consequences. It has published a set of action plans that aim to avert the potentially catastrophic impact of the virus, especially on the world’s most vulnerable and impoverished communities.
Topic:
United Nations, Governance, Reform, Multilateralism, Humanitarian Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

50. Public Opinion, Trust, and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Paul von Chamier, Nendirmwa Noel, Sarah Cliffe, and Leah Zamore
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, policymakers must navigate public perceptions of coronavirus risk and government responses. This task is all the more challenging given press coverage focusing on outliers and extreme views, polarization and disinformation on social media platforms, and the relative dearth of reliable public opinion polling. These constraints notwithstanding, understanding people’s perceptions of the impact of COVID-19 and their priorities emerging from this crisis will be crucial for building back better. This two-part briefing pulls together data from several global, regional, and national polls conducted over the past month and a half to provide a descriptive summary of trends in public opinion towards COVID-19. The first part of the briefing, by Paul von Chamier, Nendirmwa Noel, and Elizabeth Angell, focuses on global polls tracking levels of public trust in government and other institutions, and public perceptions of the trade-offs involved in calibrating lockdown measures. Overall, the results suggest that most people around the world are highly concerned about the pandemic, supportive of a strong government response, and willing to suffer economic losses in order to save lives—although not without limit. The second part, by Leah Zamore and Sarah Cliffe, focuses on polling from low-income countries, especially in Africa, which find similar trends. However, the greater vulnerability of low-income households in those countries and the practical barriers to some social distancing and lockdown measures mean that public support will decline as people experience greater hardships. The briefing suggests that adequate and equitable government support is a vital prerequisite to sustaining trust—and thus the global public health response.
Topic:
Governance, Public Opinion, Humanitarian Crisis, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus