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  • Author: Daniel S. Hamilton
  • Publication Date: 01-2018
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: For decades the partnership between North America and Europe has been a steady anchor in a world of rapid change. Today, however, the transatlantic partnership itself has become unsettled and uncertain. Nowhere is this clearer than in the economic sphere. Voters across the United States and many parts of Europe have grown skeptical of open markets. Concerns about stagnant wages, widening income inequality, and pockets of stubbornly high unemployment have combined with fears of automation, digitization and immigration to swell economic insecurities on each side of the Atlantic. The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president and the decision by British citizens to leave the European Union have only added to transatlantic uncertainties. This state of division and mutual inwardness threatens the prosperity and ultimately the position of North America and Europe in the global economy and the broader global security system. This study charts possible paths by which Americans and Europeans can navigate this strange new world. It describes how the transatlantic economy is being transformed by domestic political uncertainties, the digital revolution, the changing nature of production, and the diffusion of global power and intensified global competition. It takes account of shifting trade relations among the United States, Canada and Mexico through NAFTA, and what Brexit and the rise of non-EU Europe may mean for the European Union and for transatlantic partnership.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, Brexit, Economic growth, Trump, NAFTA
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, North America, Mexico, United States of America, European Union
  • Author: John Bruton
  • Publication Date: 05-2017
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: Testimony by CTR Distinguished Fellow and former Irish Prime Minister John Bruton at the Seanad Special Select Committee on the UK’s Withdrawal from the European Union on Thursday, April 27 2017.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Border Control, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, European Union
  • Author: Olexiy Haran, Petro Burkovskiy
  • Publication Date: 03-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: This paper is part of CTR's Working Paper Series: "Eastern Voices: Europe's East Faces an Unsettled West." In this chapter, Haran and Burkovskiy begin with a general analysis of mutual perceptions from both sides, then proceed to identify key interests and concerns regarding the war in Donbas, and analyze whether the political aspects of the Minsk agreements can be implemented. They then suggest some recommendations on the way ahead. The authors argue that Putin’s success in attacking Ukraine, which is impossible to achieve without undermining unity among Western powers, could embolden him to exert his power and influence in wider Europe. Moreover, as U.S.-EU ties are likely to undergo some stress after elections on each side of the Atlantic in 2016 and 2017, Russia will to be tempted to take advantage of such turbulence by pressing forward with its goals in Ukraine and pushing the so-called “grey zone” of insecurity westward before a new equilibrium is found within the Euro-Atlantic area.
  • Topic: International Relations, NATO, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Grand Strategy, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, United States of America, European Union
  • Author: Hans Binnendijk
  • Publication Date: 11-2016
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: NATO tends to make progress on key policy issues and capability from summit to summit. Major shifts in the orientation of the Alliance can be traced to significant summits like London (1990), Washington (1999), Prague (2002), and Lisbon (2010). During the past two years, NATO has held a summit in Wales (4-5 September 2014) and one in Warsaw (8-9 July 2016). A third minisummit is planned for Brussels in 2017. These first two summits taken together again significantly shifted the focus of the Alliance in the face of a series of new and dangerous challenges in the East and South. They shifted NATO’s posture in the East from benign neglect to allied reassurance to some degree of deterrence. The proposed force posture is inadequate to defeat a determined Russian short warning attack. Considerable increases in forward deployed forces (perhaps seven brigades) plus strengthened reinforcements would be necessary for NATO to hold its ground. But the Warsaw formula does provide what might be called “deterrence by assured response.” In the South, Allies recognized the complexity of the threats to Europe and sought to define NATO’s role in dealing with them. The third summit next year in Brussels could set the stage for further progress on both fronts. Much more still needs to be done. But with these fairly dramatic changes, NATO is in the process of once again restructuring itself so that it will not be “obsolete” in the effort to provide security for the transatlantic allies. This paper briefly analyzes 20 key issues now facing the Alliance and highlights the progress made in Wales and Warsaw. It also suggests some directions for the Brussels summit and beyond.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Brussels, Warsaw, Wales
  • Author: Daniel S. Hamilton, Stefan Meister
  • Publication Date: 08-2016
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: Russia under Vladimir Putin has become a revisionist power seeking to undo the post-Cold War settlement, control its neighborhood, and disrupt Western influence. By annexing the eastern Ukrainian region of Crimea and waging war in other parts of the country, the Kremlin seeks not only to undermine Ukraine's sovereignty but the European security order. The comfortable verities of the ''post-Cold War era'' are a paradigm lost. The Soviet succession continues to rumble, and a new era has begun - more fluid, more turbulent, more open-ended.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, NATO, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, Grand Strategy, Conflict, Putin
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America