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  • Author: Joshua Rovner, Caitlin Talmadge
  • Publication Date: 09-2014
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: The Washington Quarterly
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Five years ago, the total number of U.S. military personnel in the Persian Gulf was over 230,000. Today, that number is well under 50,000. The rapid exit of so many U.S. fighting men and women has caused many observers to fear for the future of the Gulf. As one analyst put it, the regional forecast is bleak with "violence, followed by intermittent violence, and renewed violence." Beyond the short - term problem of insecurity lies a raft of long - term nightmares, including political instability, oil shocks, and nuclear proliferation. Policymakers and military officials in Washington and the Persian Gulf share these concerns. The belief that a precipitous U.S. drawdown is creating a security vacuum and political breakdown is close to the conventional wisdom.
  • Topic: Military Affairs
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Washington, Persia
  • Author: Sven-Eric Fikenscher, Robert J. Reardon
  • Publication Date: 09-2014
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: The Washington Quarterly
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: After months of optimistic statements from negotiators, the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) and Iran still have not achieved a comprehensive agreement to resolve the nuclear dispute. However, the interim Joint Plan of Action (JPA) is—at this writing—still in force and both sides maintain that a comprehensive deal remains within reach.
  • Political Geography: United States, Iran
  • Author: John R. Schmidt
  • Publication Date: 09-2014
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: The Washington Quarterly
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Has India peaked? This may seem like a strange question given the strong economic growth the country has experienced since it liberalized its economy in 1991. Together with China, India is widely regarded as the greatest global economic success story of the past quarter century, with growth rates typically ranging between 5 and 10 percent. 1 Although its growth rate has declined recently to less than 5 percent due in part to the global economic downturn, the landslide victory of the strongly pro - business BJP (for Bharatiya Janata Party, or Indian People's Party) in the spring 2014 elections has convinced many that it will begin trending up again in the near future.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: China, India
  • Author: Harsh V. Pant
  • Publication Date: 09-2014
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: The Washington Quarterly
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: A new government took office in India in May 2014 under the prime ministership of Narendra Modi. One of the first decisions it took was to invite the member states of the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) for the swearing - in ceremony. The decision was a surprise but widely viewed as a great move, underscoring the resolve of the new government to embed India firmly within the South Asian regional matrix. It also underlined that, even though Modi's priorities will be largely domestic, foreign policy will continue to receive due attention. Modi also immediately set for himself a frenetic pace of international travel for the remainder of 2014, covering countries as diverse as Bhutan, Japan, Brazil, Australia, Nepal, and others in Southeast Asia.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, India, Australia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Theodore P. Gerber
  • Publication Date: 09-2014
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: The Washington Quarterly
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The role of nationalism within the Russian public is an under - examined but potentially important aspect of the crisis surrounding Russia's annexation of Crimea and its continuing involvement in eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. As commentators have sought to comprehend President Vladimir Putin's motives, many have asserted or assumed that such actions enjoy tremendous Russian public support. Indeed, public opinion polls from Russia indicate that Putin's popularity soared in the wake of the Crimean annexation and that large majorities have supported the government's policies in Ukraine, sympathizing with the Kremlin's negative portrayals of U.S. motives and actions. However, it is not clear whether this wave of public support is a fleeting "rally around the flag" phenomenon or the result of an organic, deeper tendency toward nationalism and xenophobia in the Russian public.
  • Topic: Nationalism
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Ukraine
  • Author: Esther D. Brimmer
  • Publication Date: 09-2014
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: The Washington Quarterly
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Will aspiring liberal democracies help maintain the current liberal international order? This current order rests on promoting and maintaining five pillars: peace and security; the market economy, especially international trade and investment; human rights and humanitarian action; sustainable development; and global spaces. Each of these areas is large and complex, and the emergence of new powers is likely to alter that system but not destabilize it.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Africa, Middle East, Brazil, Caribbean
  • Author: Prashanth Parameswaran
  • Publication Date: 09-2014
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: The Washington Quarterly
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: On October 20, 2014, Indonesia—the world's fourth - largest nation, third - largest democracy, and largest Muslim - majority country—after a decade of stable leadership under Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, inaugurated former Jakarta governor Joko Widodo as its new president. Jokowi, as he is popularly known in Indonesia, will face the daunting task of addressing the country's myriad domestic problems, while also maintaining its role abroad as a regional leader in Southeast Asia as well as a global player in important international fora like the G20 and the United Nations. Indonesian foreign policy will likely display significant continuity with the Yudhoyono years. But in translating Indonesia's foreign policy aspirations into reality, Jokowi will confront major challenges ranging from nagging resource constraints at home to incomplete political transitions and rising nationalism among Indonesia's neighbors abroad. These challenges have profound implications for U.S. policy toward Indonesia, given the closer ties between the two countries over the past few years. U.S. policymakers should factor in these realities as they fashion next steps for U.S.-Indonesia relations.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Indonesia, United Nations
  • Author: James Andrew Lewis
  • Publication Date: 01-2014
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The Gulf has become a flashpoint for cyber conflict. Cyberspace has become an arena for covert struggle, with the United States, Israel and other nations on one side, and Iran and Russia on the other. Iran has far outpaced the GCC states in developing its cyber capabilities, both for monitoring internal dissent and deploying hackers to disrupt or attack foreign targets. Several such attacks over the past two years were likely either directed or permitted by Iranian state authorities. Even if Iran holds back from offensive actions as nuclear talks progress, the growth in Iranian capabilities remains a potential security threat for other Gulf states. The GCC countries have begun to develop their defensive capabilities, but they will need to expand their defenses and collaborate more effectively to deter future threats.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Development, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Arabia
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 01-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The more one looks at the current situation in Afghanistan today, the more likely it seems that Transition will at best produce a weak and divided state and at worst a state that either continues its civil war or comes under Taliban and extremist control. More than a decade of Western intervention has not produced a strong and viable central government, an economy that can function without massive outside aid, or effective Afghan forces. There is no sign that insurgents are being pushed towards defeat or will lose their sanctuaries in Pakistan. This has made every aspect of Transition is a high-risk effort.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Development, Islam, Terrorism, War, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, Governance
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Taliban
  • Author: Richard Downie
  • Publication Date: 01-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The police are one of the most critical institutions of the state. This is particularly true in nations emerging from conflict, which are characterized by insecurity and high levels of crime. Without security, governments cannot begin rebuilding their economies and improving the lives of their citizens. As a result, they will continue to struggle for legitimacy, and a return to conflict will remain an ever-present risk. A nation's military has an important role to play in dealing with external threats and establishing basic security in the immediate aftermath of conflict, but the police are the institution best suited for dealing with internal security and addressing the safety needs of the public. For citizens, a police officer is the symbolic representation of state authority. Their view of the state and their acceptance of its authority are partially shaped by their interactions with the police.
  • Topic: Security, Political Violence, Civil Society, Corruption, Crime
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Jennifer G. Cooke, Farha Tahir
  • Publication Date: 01-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: As the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) target date of 2015 approaches, there is a growing sense of urgency among international agencies to intensify efforts on the global challenge of maternal health, where, according to the 2012 MDG progress report, levels of maternal mortality remain “far from the 2015 target”. In 2012, both the G - 8 and the African Union made maternal and child health a keystone of their respective annual summits , and the United Nations launched the Global Strategy for Women ' s and Children ' s Health at a special General Assembly event. A 2 012 global summit in London, co - led by the Gates Foundation, the UK government, and the UN Population Fund, generated $2.6 billion in donor pledges for family planning, a critical element of maternal health. The United States has made maternal health an increasingly important element in U.S. global health efforts, manifested most recently with the launch in June 2012 of the Saving Mothers, Giving Life initiative. The initiative, an ambitious public - private partnership intended “ to drive efficiencies, spur innovation, and ensure impact ” in maternal health , has the strong backing of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, for whom maternal and child health, and women's empowerment more generally, have been consistent priorities.
  • Topic: Gender Issues, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Health Care Policy
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Publication Date: 01-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The Maghreb is in motion. Political changes underway across North Africa have created opportunities for more representative and transparent governance. Debates over the nature of authority and the role of the state that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago now shape political discourse. And yet, doubts remain.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Regime Change, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa, Arabia, North Africa
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 01-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: US “independence” from energy imports has been a key source of political dispute ever since the October War in 1973 and the Arab oil embargo that followed. Much of this debate has ignored or misstated the nature of the data available on what the US options are, as well as the uncertainties involved in making any long range projections.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Katherine E. Bliss
  • Publication Date: 05-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Hopes are high for a successful outcome of the 2013 replenishment process, through which the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria seeks pledges of $15 billion to support planned activities for 2014-2016. Yet at a time when some experts argue it is finally possible to “turn the tide” on HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis, it is unclear whether countries and other donors will pledge adequate funding to meet the revitalized Fund's replenishment goal. The United States has an essential leadership role to play in helping ensure a successful 2013 replenishment outcome. In the short term it must come through with a strong pledge of its own and engage diplomatically with a range of donor and beneficiary countries to demonstrate support for the organization. In the longer term the U.S. will need to work with the Fund and other governments to identify new ways for public and private-sector entities, as well as individuals, to support the Global Fund's work.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, Health Care Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman, Robert M. Shelala II
  • Publication Date: 05-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The US faces major challenges in dealing with Iran, the threat of terrorism, and the tide of political instability in the Arabian Peninsula. The presence of some of the world's largest reserves of oil and natural gas, vital shipping lanes, and Shia populations throughout the region have made the peninsula the focal point of US and Iranian strategic competition. Moreover, large youth populations, high unemployment rates, and political systems with highly centralized power bases have posed other economic, political, and security challenges that the GCC states must address, and which the US must take into consideration when forming strategy and policy. An updated study by the CSIS Burke Chair explores US and Iranian interests in the region, Gulf state and GCC policies toward both the US and Iran, and potential flash-points and vulnerabilities in the Gulf to enhanced competition with Iran. This study examines the growing US security partnership with Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – established as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It analyzes the steady growth in this partnership that has led to over $64 billion in new US arms transfer agreements during 2008-2011. It also examines the strengths and weaknesses of the security cooperation between the southern Gulf states, and their relative level of political, social, and economic stability. The study focuses on the need for enhanced unity and security cooperation between the individual Gulf states. It finds that such progress is critical if they are to provide effective deterrence and defense against Iran, improve their counterterrorism capabilities, and enhance other aspects of their internal security.
  • Topic: Security, Islam, Oil, Terrorism, Natural Resources, Counterinsurgency
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman, Bryan Gold
  • Publication Date: 05-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The report shows that Iran's current missile and rocket forces help compensate for its lack of effective air power and allow it to pose a threat to its neighbors and US forces that could affect their willingness to strike on Iran if Iran uses its capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the Gulf or against any of its neighbors. At another level, Iran's steady increase in the number, range, and capability of its rocket and missile forces has increased the level of tension in the Gulf, and in other regional states like Turkey, Jordan, and Israel. Iran has also shown that it will transfer long-range rockets to “friendly” or “proxy” forces like the Hezbollah and Hamas. At a far more threatening level, Iran has acquired virtually every element of a nuclear breakout capability except the fissile material needed to make a weapon. This threat has already led to a growing “war of sanctions,” and Israeli and US threats of preventive strikes. At the same time, the threat posed by Iran's nuclear programs cannot be separated from the threat posed by Iran's growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the Gulf and along all of its borders. It is far from clear that negotiations and sanctions can succeed in limiting Iran's ability to acquire nuclear weapons and deploy nuclear-armed missiles. At the same time, the report shows that military options offer uncertain alternatives. Both Israel and the US have repeatedly stated that they are planning and ready for military options that could include preventive strikes on at least Iran's nuclear facilities and, and that US strikes might cover a much wider range of missile facilities and other targets. A preventive war might trigger a direct military confrontation or conflict in the Gulf with little warning. It might also lead to at least symbolic Iranian missile strikes on US basing facilities, GCC targets or Israel. At the same time, it could lead to much more serious covert and proxy operations in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, the rest of the Gulf, and other areas.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, War
  • Political Geography: United States, Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman, Byran Gold
  • Publication Date: 05-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Iran almost certainly recognizes that US conventional superiority would give the US and its Gulf allies the upper hand in a serious conventional conflict where they could use the full spectrum of their abilities to attack a range of Iranian military targets. As a result, Iran is linking the steady expansion of its asymmetric forces to new uses of its conventional forces, and is building up its missile and nuclear capabilities, in part to deter retaliation against its use of asymmetric warfare, and in part to pose a major challenge to US and allied conventional superiority If the US is to successfully neutralize this complex mix of threats that can be used in so many different ways and at some many different levels of escalation, it must continuously adapt its forward deployed and power projection forces to deal Iranian efforts to improve its capability conduct a battle of attrition in the Gulf or near it, and deal with contingencies like Iran's use of free floating mines, unattributable attacks, and any other form of asymmetric warfare than threatens friendly Gulf states and the flow of world energy exports from the region. The US, must also work with its Gulf partners and other allies to deter and defend against very different types of conflict and be prepared to face sharp limits on the amount of force it can use. US success depends on building up the capabilities of its strategic partners in the Arab Gulf, as well as improving its cooperation with more traditional partners like Britain and France.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East
  • Author: Janet Fleischman, Alisha Kramer
  • Publication Date: 05-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: U.S. policymakers and private-sector partners increasingly appreciate the importance of targeted U.S. investments in women's health to achieve global health outcomes, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.With budgetary constraints worsening, progress in women's health will require maximizing investments by engaging new partners, identifying program synergies, and aligning with countries' national priorities to meet women's needs. Such strategic coordination—involving maternal newborn and child health, voluntary family planning, and HIV and AIDS services—presents new opportunities to expand the impact of U.S. investments.
  • Topic: Gender Issues, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, Health Care Policy
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States
  • Author: Katherine E. Bliss, Haruko Sugiyama, Ayaka Yamaguchi, Hiromi Murakami
  • Publication Date: 05-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Recent years have seen a considerable shift in the sources of financial assistance for global health activities. With the private sector as well as emerging economies joining the more developed nations as major players, the balance of power is changing, leading to a momentous shift in perceptions of “global health.” Japan has yet to adopt a comprehensive approach that acknowledges the new global health reality. With political changes, natural disasters, and a sluggish economy dominating the policy scene in recent years, there has been little appetite among decision-makers to develop—in a practical sense—more effective ways to strategically support global health activities in facilitating a greater impact of Japan's foreign policy. Japan must develop a comprehensive perspective of global health in order to maximize aid effectiveness and to promote transparency in order to boost the overall effectiveness of the country's initiatives and benefit the people of Japan, as well.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Development, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Health, Health Care Policy
  • Political Geography: Japan, Israel
  • Author: Katherine Bliss (ed), Victor D. Cha
  • Publication Date: 05-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: In the fall of 2012 the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Global Health Policy Center organized a working group to analyze progress on diplomatic outreach to advance global health during the first four years of the Barack Obama administration. Over three sessions the working group members, who included health policy researchers, former diplomats, and an ex- officio group of current government officials, met to discuss emerging trends related to global health diplomacy and to develop a set of recommendations to enhance U.S. diplomatic outreach on global health for the next four years. Much of the working group's effort focused on the important role played by the secretary of state in raising the visibility of global health challenges on the world stage and on the Department of State's potential to promote greater coherence and integration of U.S. overseas health programs in the next presidential term.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Health, Health Care Policy
  • Political Geography: United States