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  • Author: Jing-dong Yuan, Phillip C. Saunders
  • Publication Date: 05-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Chinese Vice President Hu Jintao's first visit to the United States this week has put the spotlight on the upcoming Chinese leadership transition. But will the changeover be a true transfer of power?
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, Development
  • Political Geography: Israel, Asia
  • Author: Ron Huisken
  • Publication Date: 04-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: For most states in the Asia Pacific, multilateralism is the third leg of the stool supporting regional security. For them, the other legs are a dependable U.S. commitment to the region (anchored by its bilateral alliances) and the development of robust bilateral relationships throughout the region.
  • Topic: Security, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, Israel, Asia
  • Author: Brent Won-ki Choi, Ray Yep
  • Publication Date: 03-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The "Dear Leader" is flirting with Russia these days. For the past few weeks, there have been reports of various engagements between high officials of Pyongyang and Moscow. They range from trifles like Chairman Kim Jong-il's joining Russian officials to celebrate Russia's Maslenitsa festival to seemingly endless dialogue on economic cooperation. In addition to friendly gestures such as inviting a Russian orchestra to the North's prestigious Mansudae Assembly Hall to perform, Konstantin Pulikovski, representative of Russia's Far East, came to discuss a series of economic cooperation projects with the North. Some reports even suggest Chairman Kim is making a habit of visiting Russian Ambassador Andrei Karlov once a week. The latest highlight is the North's proposal that Russia establish a joint nuclear reactor, which Moscow said it would "consider."
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, Development
  • Political Geography: Israel, Asia, Moscow
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 12-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: If we go to war with Iraq, we will go to war with forces that are the military equivalent of a wounded poisonous snake. They are weakened, but still dangerous, and they may lash out in ways that are truly dangerous. In broad terms, Iraq's forces have been in steadily decline ever since the beginning of the fighting in the Gulf War. They have been weakened by military defeat, by the impact of UN inspections, by wars of underfunding and by a decade without significant arms imports. At the same time, they are still the most powerful conventional forces in the Gulf, and Iraq may have some very unconventional weapons.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 09-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The most important single message that anyone can communicate in regard to biological weapons is that we face a very uncertain mix of existing threats politics, commercial development, and technology will change constantly as far into the future as we can look. The issue is not what we know, but how little we know and how little we can predict.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 06-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: This draft analysis is be circulated for comment as part of the CSIS “Saudi Arabia Enters the 21 st Century Project.” It will be extensively revised before final publication.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 02-2001
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Chemical weapons have not been used effectively in attacks on the American homeland. Reports that the bombers of the World Trade Center considered trying to add a chemical weapon like sodium cyanide to their explosives seem to be untrue, and led to an unsubstantiated assertion by the trial judge. There have, however, been a number of attempts to use chemical weapons by domestic extremists and individuals. For example, in 1997, members of the KKK plotted to place an improvised explosive device on a hydrogen sulfide tank at a refinery near Dallas, Texas. There is a well-established, low-level risk that such weapons will be used in the future, although there is no way to predict the frequency of such attacks, their scale, potential success, or lethality.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Mandavi Mehta, Teresita C. Schaffer
  • Publication Date: 12-2001
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The South Asia program has recently concluded a year-long study entitled “Rising India and U.S. Policy Options in Asia” with a final conference that was held on October 15, 2001. The “Rising India” project seeks to analyze aspects of the U.S.-Indian relationship, examine the effectiveness of U.S. diplomatic tools in the context of different growth trends in India, and put U.S. policy toward India within a broader Asian context. This summary reflects the project study, amplified by presentations made at the conference.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, China, South Asia, Asia
  • Author: Teresita C. Schaffer
  • Publication Date: 11-2001
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Begum Khaleda Zia scored a dramatic victory in the October 1 elections in Bangladesh, winning a historic two-thirds majority in parliament and continuing Bangladesh's 10-year pattern of changing the party in power with each election. Other countries and the business community will welcome early hints at a more flexible policy on natural gas, but not statements about renegotiating a water agreement with India. Outside observers will be watching most closely, however, for signs of Zia's approach to governance. The Awami League has reacted bitterly to its defeat, and dysfunctional relations between the government and the opposition are likely to continue.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: Bangladesh, South Asia
  • Author: Mandavi Mehta
  • Publication Date: 07-2001
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: India's northeastern corner and the neighboring countries embody some of the major demographic and environmental time bombs in the subcontinent. Instability in this region, which both India and China regard as strategically important, could provoke a disruptive Indian response or a serious deterioration in India-China relations, with a significant impact on the broader politics of the region. The last month brought two reminders of how volatile this area is: the murder of the King of Nepal and most of his family, and the violent protests in Manipur following India's extension of its ceasefire with the primary Naga insurgent group. This paper provides a thumbnail sketch of the players and the places involved in India's “northeast problems.”
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, China, South Asia, India, Nepal