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  • Author: James A. Lewis
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The first warnings of an “electronic Pearl Harbor” appeared in 1995. 1 They have appeared regularly since then. Before the conflict with Iraq that began in March 2003, there was speculation that the U.S. would experience cyber attacks in retaliation. Since the onset of the war, however, there have been no reported attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure or affected U.S. military operations in Iraq. Nor have there been any reports of cyber attacks that damaged U.S. infrastructure or affected U.S. military operations since 1996.
  • Topic: Security, Government, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq
  • Author: Bidisha Biswas
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) pulled out of peace negotiations with the Sri Lankan government last March, putting even more stress on an already fragile peace process. Negotiations have continued, however, with a new effort to define an interim governing arrangement for the largely Tamil north and east of the country. Both sides are scrambling to show that the process can make a difference in the daily lives of residents and that they are committed to success. Nevertheless, one should not expect a speedy or smooth resolution of the conflict.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: South Asia
  • Author: Armand Cucciniello, Pramit Mitra
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's short visit to India in early September, the first by an Israeli prime minister, highlighted the dramatic expansion in a relationship that started only 12 years ago. Before Sharon's early departure because of two suicide bombings back home, ministers from both countries signed six agreements covering visa requirements, environmental protection, combating illicit drug trafficking, and an initiative to begin an educational exchange program. The accent, however, was on the rapidly growing military supply relationship. Balancing its relations with Israel and its still important ties with the Muslim Middle East, especially its major oil suppliers, will be a growing challenge for India's policymakers.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: South Asia, Middle East, India, Israel
  • Author: Pramit Mitra
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The July 2003 state visit to China by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee of India, the first by an Indian prime minister in a decade, represented a major step forward in New Delhi's relations with its giant neighbor and competitor. Dramatic increases in bilateral trade set the stage for nine bilateral agreements covering trade, education, easing of visa regulations, and development projects. The artful language of the agreements suggested progress on the long-standing Sino-Indian border dispute. More substantial relations between India and China are good news for regional stability, although this relationship will remain wary, and China's strong interest in Pakistan will continue to be a constraint.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, China, India, Asia
  • Author: Pramit Mitra, Navin Vij
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: With five states scheduled to go to polls this fall, political activity is moving into high gear in India. The state elections will provide a good barometer of popular sentiment toward the government and are being treated as a 'test run' for the national elections due in 2004. The state elections will largely determine how the major contenders deal with the volatile issue of Hindu nationalism. How relations with Pakistan figure in the election depends largely on the outcome of current India-Pakistan peace efforts. But the key issue to watch is the ability of the current ruling party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress party, its principal opponent, to hold together a coalition. This will not only be central to their electoral strategies, it will also determine the next government's freedom of action in making national policy.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, South Asia
  • Author: Teresita Schaffer, Paul A. Longo
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Two months after Indian prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's offer to extend “the hand of friendship” to neighboring Pakistan, the two countries are exchanging ambassadors and have begun restoring transport links, but discussions on their underlying dispute have yet to take shape. The next few months provide a crucial opportunity to begin a serious peace effort. Should this window of time pass by without progress, however, internal politics in both countries may rule out another try for a year or two.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East
  • Author: Kavita Sangani, Teresita C. Schaffer
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Russia is broadening its relations with South Asia, as illustrated in the recent visits by Pakistan's President Musharraf to Russia and Russia's President Putin to India. Russia's long-standing ties with India are still driven by important defense links and shared hopes to create a multipolar world. Both countries are trying to breathe new life into their much-diminished economic relationship. Russia's new interest in Pakistan is driven largely by concerns about Islamic extremism and Central Asia. At a time when Russia's priorities are to a large extent internal, South Asia is a relatively accessible area for engaging in global geopolitics, but Russia is unlikely to become a major player in India- Pakistan diplomacy in the next few years.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, South Asia, Asia
  • Author: Mandavi Mehta
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: India is poised on the verge of a sharp escalation of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, with profound consequences for the state's society, economy and polity. This crisis will not affect India alone. In an increasingly interconnected world, the effects of such an epidemic will be globally felt, both directly in terms of the spread of infection, and indirectly in terms of the overall security and economic and political health of the region.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, China, South Asia
  • Author: Amir Ahmad, Teresita C. Schaffer
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: India's budget for fiscal year 2003–2004 will make some contribution to short-term growth but continues the piecemeal approach to economic policy apparent in the last two budgets. With four key state elections during the first half of 2003 and national elections due in 2004, we can expect India's economic policy to muddle through rather than taking bold initiatives. India's growth, under these circumstances, will depend largely on the weather and on a few major investment decisions, and it is not likely to surge ahead in the immediate future.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: South Asia
  • Author: Kavita Sangani
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Bilateral trade between India and Pakistan is extraordinarily low—less than 1 percent of their global trade. Their volatile political relationship has overwhelmed attempts to encourage trade between the two countries, and has also impacted economic integration in the South Asian region as a whole. There are both political and economic obstacles to expanding trade between the two countries. Greater economic co-operation could, however, provide mutual economic benefits, such as lower prices for consumers, much-needed revenue for the governments, and cost-effective gas import to India via Pakistan. Perhaps most importantly, it could generate new linkages between the two business communities, thereby nurturing constituencies for peace in the region.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: South Asia, Middle East, India