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42. A Strategy of Discriminate Power: A Global Posture for Sustained Leadership
- Author:
- Michael J. Mazarr
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States does not need a new grand strategy, but a new concept for developing more innovative and economical ways to achieve its long-standing, and widely accepted, existing one. The best candidate for such a concept could be called ''discriminate power,'' outlined here.
- Political Geography:
- United States
43. Sizing U.S. Ground Forces: From ''2 Wars'' to ''1 War + 2 Missions''
- Author:
- Michael O'Hanlon
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- During the Cold War, the United States varied between a "1 ½ war" and a "2 ½ war" framework for sizing its main combat forces. This framework prepared forces for one or two large wars, and then a smaller "half-war." Capacity for a major conflict in Europe, against the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies, represented the enduring big war potential. This period saw simultaneous conflict against China as a second possible big war, until Nixon's Guam doctrine placed a greater burden on regional allies rather than U.S. forces to address such a specter, and until his subsequent opening to the PRC made such a war seem less likely in any event. The half-wars were seen as relatively more modest but still quite significant operations such as in Korea or Vietnam.
- Topic:
- Cold War
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, Vietnam, and Korea
44. Military Humanitarianism: Syria Hasn't Killed It
- Author:
- Thomas G. Weiss
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Pundits claim that the war in Syria has sounded the death knell for humanitarian intervention and the Responsibility to Protect (R2P)— resquiescat in pace , according to David Rieff. By failing to intercede in that country's brutal civil war, many believe the international community effectively turned its back on an important emerging international norm, one that over 150 heads of state endorsed at the UN's 2005 World Summit.
- Political Geography:
- Paris, Libya, London, and Syria
45. The Myth of Petroleum Independence and Foreign Policy Isolation
- Author:
- Sarah A. Emerson and Andrew C. Winner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- U.S. politicians often work the topic of oil import independence into their campaign rhetoric as an ideal that would help separate U.S. economic prosperity and military responsibility from the volatility of Middle Eastern politics. In theory, oil independence would mean that events such as the Iranian revolution or internal political unrest in key Arab oil producers would have much less direct impact on the flow of oil to the United States, and thus U.S. prosperity (even if, in a global market for oil, the price impact of any supply disruption is shared by all consuming countries). More importantly, intra-state conflicts such as the Iraq-Iran war or the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait would not necessarily require large-scale U.S. military involvement to ensure oil production and exports to the United States and its allies. This linkage between U.S. oil import dependence and military commitment to the Gulf region has given rise to a myth favored by policymakers, markets, and the public that if the United States could attain oil independence, we could also reduce our military responsibilities around the world. Recent and ongoing changes in both the oil sector and in political-military strategy are for the first time in forty years combining in a manner that is leading some to believe this story could come true.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait
46. How Autocracies Fall
- Author:
- Erica Frantz and Andre Kendall-Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Because autocrats can rarely be voted out of power, most find themselves exiting office in far less conventional ways. Since the 1950s, the coup d'état—or the illegal seizure of power by the military—has been by far the most common. During the 1960s and '70s, for example, about half of all autocrats who lost power did so through a coup. But fast-forward to the 2010s, and a different picture is emerging. The chain of protests during the Arab Awakening, which toppled four of the world's longest-standing rulers—Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Muammar Qaddafi of Libya, and Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen—led many political observers to rejoice in the masses' ability to unseat autocratic strongmen. But are these revolts evidence that autocrats are becoming increasingly vulnerable to the masses? Or are they short-term exceptions to a longer-standing rule of autocratic ouster?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Yemen, and Egypt
47. Identifying Truly Fragile States
- Author:
- Seth Kaplan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- That the Arab Spring caught the world off guard is hardly surprising. Interpreting overt stability as a reflection of fundamental strength or resiliency has often set the international community up for surprise. Few forecast the dissolution of the Soviet Union, for example; far too few in Washington anticipated what would follow the invasion of Iraq. These are reminders that apparent stability can be little more than an illusion.
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Washington, and Arabia
48. Agenda for a New Great Power Relationship
- Author:
- Wu Xinbo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- "Well begun is half done," Aristotle once said, meaning that beginning a project well makes it easier to do the rest. Yet, this may not be true of China–U.S. relations during Obama's presidency. Although the Obama administration secured a smooth transition from the George W. Bush years and attached high priority to relations with China during its first year in office, bilateral relations turned downward over the rest of Obama's first term, leaving a legacy of growing mutual suspicion and rising competition between the two countries, especially in the Asia–Pacific region. In spite of the November 2009 bilateral agreement to build a "positive, cooperative, and comprehensive relationship," the two sides missed opportunities for more cooperation while mishandling and even misguiding bilateral ties on some points.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia-Pacific
49. East Asia's Maritime Disputes: Fishing in Troubled Waters
- Author:
- Alan Dupont and Christopher G. Baker
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Few doubt that China's rise is this era's principal driver of strategic change, just as the United States' equally influential ascendancy shaped the last. But earlier optimism that the Middle Kingdom's re-emergence as a major power would be largely benign is fading as evidence mounts that Beijing is determined to press its territorial and resource claims in the vitally important seas of the Western Pacific. In barely the blink of a geopolitical eye, China's once lauded charm offensive has given way to exactly the kind of coercive behavior its critics have long predicted. In a 3,000-mile maritime arc running from the East China Sea to the southern reaches of the South China Sea, Beijing is at loggerheads with many of its neighbors, including erstwhile friends, over several linked territorial and resource disputes. If not wisely managed, these disputes could bring East Asia's long peace to a premature and bloody end.
- Political Geography:
- China and East Asia
50. The South China Sea is Not a Flashpoint
- Author:
- Brendan Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Two important anniversaries arrive in 2014 for protracted South China Sea disputes. January 19 marked 40 years since Chinese and Vietnamese forces clashed over the Paracel Islands, resulting in the deaths of more than 50 Vietnamese personnel and an undisclosed number on the Chinese side-at least the second — largest loss of life to have occurred in any single incident involving these disputed waters. Late 2014 will also mark 20 years since China controversially built structures on the aptly named Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands, prompting a further series of incidents at sea. Recent reports that China has moved large concrete blocks to Scarborough Shoal—yet another disputed reef that was the scene of an April 2012 standoff between Chinese and Philippines vessels—have sparked concerns in Manila that history is repeating.
- Political Geography:
- China and Philippines
51. Drone Wars
- Author:
- Peter Bergen and Jennifer Rowland
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- At the National Defense University (NDU) on May 23, 2013, President Barack Obama gave a major speech about terrorism-arguing that the time has come to redefine the kind of conflict that the United States has been engaged in since the 9/11 attacks. Obama asserted that ''[w]e must define the nature and scope of this struggle, or else it will define us.'' Thus, the President focused part of his speech on the Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF), which Congress had passed days after 9/11 and which gave President George W. Bush the authority to go to war in Afghanistan against al-Qaeda and its Taliban allies. Few in Congress who voted for this authorization understood that they were voting for what has become the United States' longest war, one that has expanded in recent years to countries such as Pakistan and Yemen.
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Yemen
52. Bringing Them All Back Home? Dollar Diminution and U.S. Power
- Author:
- Jonathan Kirshner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- U.S. power is facing new macroeconomic constraints. They derive from a basic and generally underappreciated shift in U.S. engagement with the global macroeconomic order, which also complicates international politics. Since before WWII, the international monetary and financial system had served to enhance U.S. power and capabilities in its relations with other states. From the turn of the twenty-/first century, however, underlying economic problems threatened to turn this traditional (if implicit) source of strength into a chronic weakness. The 2007-08 global financial crisis has increased this risk. The United States will likely face new constraints on its power from the crisis and from new complications managing the dollar as a global currency. Moreover, the unfamiliarity of U.S. elites and citizens in facing such constraints will play a crucial role in determining how severe they will be in practice.
- Political Geography:
- United States
53. Leading on the Cheap? French Security Policy in Austerity
- Author:
- Bruno Tertrais
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Who would have predicted in early 2011-just before the Libya operation was decided-that cash-strapped, inwardly-focused, soul-searching France would embark over the next two years on a flurry of military operations and bold strategic moves? These included a de facto regime change in Libya, ousting former President Gbagbo in Ivory Coast, recapturing Northern Mali and destroying a jihadist sanctuary, and supporting the Free Syrian Army, not to mention other minor operations such as reinforcing its presence in the Central African Republic. Even in France, many of those who supported continuing a strong interventionist policy were surprised. How can one explain this phenomenon? Can France really afford to remain a global power at a time when the Hollande administration is imposing some of the heaviest cuts ever in budgetary expenses?
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and Syria
54. Is Hamas Winning?
- Author:
- Daniel Byman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Hamas members are ''ants,'' declared Yasser Arafat, the father and long-/time leader of the Palestinian national movement, during a private speech in 1990. Its cadre, he went on, should cower in their holes lest they be crushed by Arafat's Fatah forces. Arafat's swagger seemed justified. Fatah had ruled the roost for decades, and after Hamas emerged in December 1987 as the first intifada erupted, the Islamist organization was on the ropes. After a few unimpressive attacks, Israel had quickly arrested over 1,000 Hamas members, including its top leadership. In 1989, less than three percent of Palestinians in Gaza, where Hamas would later prove strongest, supported the organization. Journalist Zaki Chehab claimed Hamas' military wing only had twenty machine guns as the intifada wound down. Fatah, it seemed, would remain the dominant force in the Palestinian National Movement.
55. The Sum of all Fears: Israel's Perception of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
- Author:
- Ehud Eiran and Martin B. Malin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Thucydides' ancient logic still governs: uncertainty (over Iran's nuclear intentions) and the fear this inspires (in Israel) increases the risk of another war (in the Middle East). Even if Israel's response to the Iranian nuclear program does not lead the region into a war, Israel's fears will be crucial in shaping Middle Eastern politics and will help to determine the stability of the region in the years ahead.
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
56. The BRICS Fallacy
- Author:
- Harsh V. Pant
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The term BRICS_/referring to the association of emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa_/dominated the headlines in March 2013 as Durban hosted the annual group summit. South African President Jacob Zuma suggested that the nascent organization's leadership has ''firmly established BRICS as a credible and constructive grouping in our quest to forge a new paradigm of global relations and cooperation.'' The meeting resulted in a much-/hyped proposal to create a joint BRICS development bank that would finance investments in developing nations.
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil
57. Will Scotland Sink the United Kingdom's Nuclear Deterrent?
- Author:
- William Walker and Malcolm Chalmers
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- For over sixty years, the possession of nuclear weapons and practice of nuclear deterrence have been important to the United Kingdom's defense policy, self-image, and international standing. It was a partner in the Manhattan Project and had acquired its own weapons by the mid-1950s, its program thereafter assisted by cooperation agreements with the United States. Its nuclear capability has long been assigned to the NATO alliance, and it is one of the five nuclear weapon states recognized by the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
- Political Geography:
- United States and United Kingdom
58. Double Trouble: A Realist View of Rising Chinese and Indian Power
- Author:
- Eric Heginbotham and George J. Gilboy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Washington sees Indian power as part of the solution to the challenges posed by the rise of China. But an objective assessment of Chinese and Indian national interests and international actions suggests it is far more likely that each will pose significant challenges to U.S. interests, albeit of different kinds. India will be no less likely than China to pursue vigorously its own interests, many of which run counter to those of the United States, simply because it is a democracy.
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and India
59. Five Myths about India's Nuclear Posture
- Author:
- Vipin Narang
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- For a democracy that otherwise leaks secrets like a sieve, India's entire nuclear journey has been shrouded in remarkable secrecy. It is therefore unsurprising that India has closely guarded the details of its nuclear posture since it became an overt nuclear weapons state in 1998. For a relatively mature democracy with a vibrant political culture, the level of opacity surrounding India's nuclear posture is extraordinary, and held tightly by just a handful of senior civilian officials, scientists, and officers in a dedicated Strategic Forces Command (SFC). Widely held conventional wisdoms about the nature and disposition of India's nuclear posture_/its forces, deployment patterns, and envisioned employment modes_/date back to authoritative studies from the early and mid-/2000s by Ashley Tellis, George Perkovich, Bharat Karnad, and Rajesh Basrur. The core of these precepts is that, first, India's nuclear posture and doctrine are driven by an aim of ''building and maintaining a credible minimum deterrent''; second, India keeps its forces in a disassembled state to maximize safety and civilian control; and third, India has an unequivocal no-/ first-/use policy, meaning a pledge to only use nuclear weapons in retaliation for nuclear use against India.
- Political Geography:
- India
60. Pakistan and Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Déjà Vu?
- Author:
- Shashank Joshi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- In October last year, the world marked the fiftieth anniversary of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. But for policymakers in South Asia, the commemoration was less a cautionary tale than an occasion for self-/satisfaction. When India and Pakistan conducted nuclear weapons tests in 1998, they received near-/universal condemnation, even from established allies. They were warned that_/as poor countries with weak institutions and small, vulnerable arsenals_/ dangerous instability would plague their nuclear relationship. Nascent nuclear powers were simply less reliable stewards than their Cold War counterparts.
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, and India