Publishing Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies / Political Geography: / Publication Year: within 10 Years

401. THE CONTINUING CHALLENGE OF DEMOCRACY IN THE AMERICAS

Author:: Eric Farnsworth
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: U.S. influence is waning in the Americas. Although Washington is currently engaged in a well-intentioned effort to reverse this trend, its agenda will have only limited impact over the longer term unless the United States changes the lens through which it views the region. Strategic thinking has essentially collapsed. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the international relations community in the United States moved on, leaving regional studies to development and social inclusion advocates. At the point in history when the United States should be reaping the reward of years of patient investment and hard work building democratic institutions and open markets in the region, we have either doubled down on, or pivoted to, other parts of the world. Now, instead, the United States must refocus its perspective within the region, or else its traditional leadership role will continue to erode. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are neither charity cases nor default partners in international affairs. It is time for a less romantic, more realistic approach to the Americas.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: America, Washington, and Caribbean

402. LOOKING TOWARD 2014

Author:: Charles E. Cook
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: It is inevitable that U.S. presidential elections get considerably more attention domestically and around the world than mid-term elections, but the latter are still extremely important; their results drive in large part the ability of a president to succeed. President Obama will be entering the 2014 midterm election with his party holding a 55-to 45-seat majority in the U.S. Senate and a 17-seat deficit in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Political Geography:: United States

403. Strategic Recalibration: Framework for a 21st-Century National Security Strategy'

Author:: Bruce W. Jentleson
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The release of the Obama administration's 2014 National Security Strategy comes amidst increasing criticism of its strategic savvy. Some are rank partisan, some Monday-morning quarterbacking. Some, though, reflect the intensifying debate over the optimal U.S. foreign policy strategy for our contemporary era.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

404. A Strategy of Discriminate Power: A Global Posture for Sustained Leadership

Author:: Michael J. Mazarr
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The United States does not need a new grand strategy, but a new concept for developing more innovative and economical ways to achieve its long-standing, and widely accepted, existing one. The best candidate for such a concept could be called ''discriminate power,'' outlined here.
Political Geography:: United States

405. Sizing U.S. Ground Forces: From ''2 Wars'' to ''1 War + 2 Missions''

Author:: Michael O'Hanlon
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: During the Cold War, the United States varied between a "1 ½ war" and a "2 ½ war" framework for sizing its main combat forces. This framework prepared forces for one or two large wars, and then a smaller "half-war." Capacity for a major conflict in Europe, against the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies, represented the enduring big war potential. This period saw simultaneous conflict against China as a second possible big war, until Nixon's Guam doctrine placed a greater burden on regional allies rather than U.S. forces to address such a specter, and until his subsequent opening to the PRC made such a war seem less likely in any event. The half-wars were seen as relatively more modest but still quite significant operations such as in Korea or Vietnam.
Topic:: Cold War
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, Vietnam, and Korea

406. Military Humanitarianism: Syria Hasn't Killed It

Author:: Thomas G. Weiss
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Pundits claim that the war in Syria has sounded the death knell for humanitarian intervention and the Responsibility to Protect (R2P)— resquiescat in pace , according to David Rieff. By failing to intercede in that country's brutal civil war, many believe the international community effectively turned its back on an important emerging international norm, one that over 150 heads of state endorsed at the UN's 2005 World Summit.
Political Geography:: Paris, Libya, London, and Syria

407. The Myth of Petroleum Independence and Foreign Policy Isolation

Author:: Sarah A. Emerson and Andrew C. Winner
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: U.S. politicians often work the topic of oil import independence into their campaign rhetoric as an ideal that would help separate U.S. economic prosperity and military responsibility from the volatility of Middle Eastern politics. In theory, oil independence would mean that events such as the Iranian revolution or internal political unrest in key Arab oil producers would have much less direct impact on the flow of oil to the United States, and thus U.S. prosperity (even if, in a global market for oil, the price impact of any supply disruption is shared by all consuming countries). More importantly, intra-state conflicts such as the Iraq-Iran war or the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait would not necessarily require large-scale U.S. military involvement to ensure oil production and exports to the United States and its allies. This linkage between U.S. oil import dependence and military commitment to the Gulf region has given rise to a myth favored by policymakers, markets, and the public that if the United States could attain oil independence, we could also reduce our military responsibilities around the world. Recent and ongoing changes in both the oil sector and in political-military strategy are for the first time in forty years combining in a manner that is leading some to believe this story could come true.
Topic:: Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait

408. How Autocracies Fall

Author:: Erica Frantz and Andre Kendall-Taylor
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Because autocrats can rarely be voted out of power, most find themselves exiting office in far less conventional ways. Since the 1950s, the coup d'état—or the illegal seizure of power by the military—has been by far the most common. During the 1960s and '70s, for example, about half of all autocrats who lost power did so through a coup. But fast-forward to the 2010s, and a different picture is emerging. The chain of protests during the Arab Awakening, which toppled four of the world's longest-standing rulers—Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Muammar Qaddafi of Libya, and Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen—led many political observers to rejoice in the masses' ability to unseat autocratic strongmen. But are these revolts evidence that autocrats are becoming increasingly vulnerable to the masses? Or are they short-term exceptions to a longer-standing rule of autocratic ouster?
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Libya, Yemen, and Egypt

409. Identifying Truly Fragile States

Author:: Seth Kaplan
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: That the Arab Spring caught the world off guard is hardly surprising. Interpreting overt stability as a reflection of fundamental strength or resiliency has often set the international community up for surprise. Few forecast the dissolution of the Soviet Union, for example; far too few in Washington anticipated what would follow the invasion of Iraq. These are reminders that apparent stability can be little more than an illusion.
Political Geography:: Iraq, Washington, and Arabia

410. Agenda for a New Great Power Relationship

Author:: Wu Xinbo
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: "Well begun is half done," Aristotle once said, meaning that beginning a project well makes it easier to do the rest. Yet, this may not be true of China–U.S. relations during Obama's presidency. Although the Obama administration secured a smooth transition from the George W. Bush years and attached high priority to relations with China during its first year in office, bilateral relations turned downward over the rest of Obama's first term, leaving a legacy of growing mutual suspicion and rising competition between the two countries, especially in the Asia–Pacific region. In spite of the November 2009 bilateral agreement to build a "positive, cooperative, and comprehensive relationship," the two sides missed opportunities for more cooperation while mishandling and even misguiding bilateral ties on some points.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia-Pacific

411. East Asia's Maritime Disputes: Fishing in Troubled Waters

Author:: Alan Dupont and Christopher G. Baker
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Few doubt that China's rise is this era's principal driver of strategic change, just as the United States' equally influential ascendancy shaped the last. But earlier optimism that the Middle Kingdom's re-emergence as a major power would be largely benign is fading as evidence mounts that Beijing is determined to press its territorial and resource claims in the vitally important seas of the Western Pacific. In barely the blink of a geopolitical eye, China's once lauded charm offensive has given way to exactly the kind of coercive behavior its critics have long predicted. In a 3,000-mile maritime arc running from the East China Sea to the southern reaches of the South China Sea, Beijing is at loggerheads with many of its neighbors, including erstwhile friends, over several linked territorial and resource disputes. If not wisely managed, these disputes could bring East Asia's long peace to a premature and bloody end.
Political Geography:: China and East Asia

412. The South China Sea is Not a Flashpoint

Author:: Brendan Taylor
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Two important anniversaries arrive in 2014 for protracted South China Sea disputes. January 19 marked 40 years since Chinese and Vietnamese forces clashed over the Paracel Islands, resulting in the deaths of more than 50 Vietnamese personnel and an undisclosed number on the Chinese side-at least the second — largest loss of life to have occurred in any single incident involving these disputed waters. Late 2014 will also mark 20 years since China controversially built structures on the aptly named Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands, prompting a further series of incidents at sea. Recent reports that China has moved large concrete blocks to Scarborough Shoal—yet another disputed reef that was the scene of an April 2012 standoff between Chinese and Philippines vessels—have sparked concerns in Manila that history is repeating.
Political Geography:: China and Philippines

413. Maritime Security in the Middle East and North Africa: A Strategic Assessment

Author:: Robert M. Shelala II
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The waterways of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) are among the most important in the world. They facilitate the export of large volumes of oil and natural gas from the region, while also bridging traders in the Eastern and Western worlds through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. While political tensions in the region have at times played out in these waterways since the mid-20th century, their vulnerability has been exasperated in recent years by the failure of bordering governments to promote internal stability, the lack of adequate maritime security capabilities of nearby states, and the potential naval threats posed by the government of Iran.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, International Security, Military Strategy, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and North Africa

414. Launching a New Chapter in U.S.-Africa Relations

Author:: Richard Downie and Jennifer G. Cooke
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Africa's changing economic landscape is prompting a shift in how U.S. policymakers view the continent. High growth rates, new technologies, and a rapidly expanding consumer class are driving greater global competition for investment and access to potential export markets, and the United States is recognizing that it will need to step up its game to remain relevant and influential in an increasingly crowded and competitive environment. This will mean placing a stronger emphasis on strengthening trade and investment ties and encouraging U.S. companies to take fuller advantage of expanding opportunities. Playing up these opportunities will not only serve long-term U.S. commercial interests in Africa but will serve U.S. development and diplomatic objectives as well. U.S. investments, done right, can have long-term development impacts in Africa, through technology and knowledge transfer, training, systems development, and partnerships. And a new, more optimistic engagement with Africa's citizens and entrepreneurs will have strong resonance with the continent's up-and-coming generation, creating links based on enduring mutual interest.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa and United States

415. The Reinvention of Al-Shabaab

Author:: Matt Bryden
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The September 2013 attack on Nairobi's Westgate Shopping Center, which left more than 70 people dead, has positioned the Somali extremist group, Al-Shabaab, firmly in the global spotlight. While some observers have interpreted the attack as a sign of "desperation," others perceive it as an indication of Al-Shabaab's reformation and resurgence under the leadership of the movement's Amir, Ahmed Abdi aw Mohamud Godane. The reality is, as usual, more complex. Westgate provided a glimpse of a movement in the throes of a protracted, fitful, and often-violent transition: Al-shabaab is in the process of reinventing itself.
Topic:: Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Africa

416. Liberty, Equality, Connectivity

Author:: James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Europe and the United States have a collective interest in the promotion of a stable international order based on the rule of law, open and equitable arrangements for trade, and a commitment to democratic government and individual rights. These interests face renewed challenges in a complex global political environment.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and International Security
Political Geography:: Europe

417. A New Development Agenda

Author:: Daniel F. Runde and Scott Miller
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The link between economic development and state security has been well established but is still too often overlooked. Former secretary of defense Robert Gates argued in support of development efforts as a form of “preventative diplomacy,” preventing the conditions where violent crises occur that may require more aggressive intervention. For example, rising food prices in Egypt have been cited as a major instigator for the protests that overthrew Hosni Mubarak. That does not mean that Mubarak could have stayed in power if only food were more affordable, but higher levels of economic development and the concurrent factors that encourage it could have made the transition more stable and less violent.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States

418. Lebanon at the Crossroad: Assessing the Impact of the Lebanon-Syria Insecurity Nexus

Author:: Aram Nerguizian
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Lebanon has been a chronic US foreign policy challenge in the Levant since the Eisenhower Administration. However, given the country's centrality to regional security politics and Iran's support for the Shi'a militant group Hezbollah, the US cannot avoid looking at Lebanon as yet another arena of competition with Iran in the broader Levant.
Topic:: Security, Islam, Religion, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: Lebanon and Syria

419. Governing Uranium in the United States

Author:: Sharon Squassoni, Robert Kim, Stephanie Cooke, and Jacob Greenberg
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Proliferation Prevention Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) participated in a global project on uranium governance led by the Danish Institute for International Studies that looks at uranium accountability and control in 17 uranium- producing countries. The project seeks to identify governance gaps and provide policy recommendations for improving front- end transparency, security, and regulation. The impetus for the project is the concern that monitoring activities at the front end—uranium mining, milling, and conversion—could be strengthened.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: United States

420. Safety of Crude Oil by Rail

Author:: David Pumphrey, Lisa Hyland, and Michelle Melton
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In the last several years, rail has come to play an important role in the transportation of growing U.S. crude oil production. Over the last seven months, a number of serious accidents have resulted in intense review of the safety of shipping large quantities of oil by rail. The focus has been on classification of the oil, the integrity of tank cars, and rail operations. Regulatory processes have been initiated to attempt to deal with these issues in a timely manner. This analysis provides facts that illuminate the players, concerns, current status of regulatory action, as well as the potential issues going forward.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, National Security, and Oil
Political Geography:: United States, Canada, and North America

421. Peace and Stability in the Post-Conflict Era

Author:: Douglas Farah, Robert D. Lamb, and Carl Meacham
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The project that culminated in this report was conceived just over a year ago as an initiative to assess the major accomplishments in strengthening the Colombian government's efforts to bring peace and stability to its countryside.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Terrorism, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:: South America

422. Cyber Threat and Response

Author:: James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Everyone knows that the Internet has changed how we interact, do business, and share information. The Internet can be an "innovation engine," but the same engine of innovation drives cyber threats to change faster than cyber defenses can react. Cyber threats are complex, dynamic, and network defenses have trouble keeping up with them.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Economics, Science and Technology, and International Security
Political Geography:: Europe

423. Lessons from Abroad for the U.S. Entitlement Debate

Author:: Richard Jackson
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: FROM THE CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE AND THE GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE TO THE BOWLES-SIMPSON AND DOMENICI-RIVLIN COMMISSIONS, everyone who has looked seriously at the fiscal arithmetic agrees that there is no solution to America's long-term budget problem that does not include fundamental entitlement reform. After all, federal entitlement programs make up well over half of federal spending today and account for all projected growth in noninterest outlays as a share of GDP over the next three decades.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and Reform
Political Geography:: America

424. U.S.-Russia Health Engagement

Author:: Judyth L. Twigg
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Over the last few years, Russia's relationship with the United States has traveled a swift and seemingly deliberate arc from partner to pariah. The current turmoil in Ukraine and near-certain resulting isolation of Russia culminate several years' worth of deteriorating ties. The Edward Snowden mess, disagreements over Syria and Iran, dismay over the eroding human rights environment in Russia, and now Russian annexation of Crimea have led the previously heralded "reset" to an unceremonious end. What are the implications of these and related developments for U.S.-Russia collaboration in medicine and public health? Should avenues of partnership remain open, even in such a frosty political context? Should the international community support Russia's health sector when ample resources exist within Russia itself? Is it even possible anymore?
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Health, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, and North America

425. Nuclear Notes

Author:: Sarah Weiner
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the Cold War, nuclear deterrence has been a central element of U.S. national security policy. The United States' nuclear guarantee became the foundation of its security strategy and that of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which was created to deter the Soviet Union and served as a core part of the alliance's victorious emergence from the Cold War. Just as many questioned the purpose of the alliance after the Cold War, many allies along with the United States currently debate the continued role of U.S. nuclear deterrence in Europe.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

426. India's Nonperforming Assets: A Lurking Crisis

Author:: Rasika Gynedi
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Asset quality in India's banks has deteriorated sharply and if not tackled promptly poses a systemic risk to the banking system—and by extension the Indian economy. A high proportion of nonperforming assets (NPAs) steadily erodes the capital base of a bank, impinging on the ability of banks to raise fresh capital and continue lending for investment activities. Indeed, the spillover impact from banking crises to the real economy is all too familiar, evinced by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. However, despite this risk, the issue is not garnering sufficient attention outside the banking industry.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, South Asia, and India

427. The Global Youth Wellbeing Index

Author:: Nicole Goldin
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Youth comprise a quarter of the world's population, but remain an underutilized source of innovation, energy, and enthusiasm in global efforts to achieve and promote the increased wellbeing of all. As children grow and mature into adults, they make choices that affect not only their own wellbeing, but that of their families, communities, and countries. Youth-inclusive societies are more likely to grow and prosper, while the risks of exclusion include stinted growth, crime, and unrest. Therefore, it is imperative that education and health systems, labor markets, and governments serve their interests and provide the policies, investments, tools, technology, and avenues for participation they need to thrive and succeed. Yet, at a time when policy and investment decisions are increasingly data driven, data on youth development and wellbeing is often fragmented, inconsistent, or nonexistent. Thus, our understanding of how young people are doing in their own right and vis-à-vis their peers elsewhere is limited. As a result, the needs of young people often remain unexposed and marginalized by their complexity.
Topic:: Security, Development, Economics, Education, Health, Human Rights, and Youth Culture

428. Improving the US-GCC Security Partnership: Planning for the Future

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Over the years since the formation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the Southern Gulf states and the US have developed a de facto strategic partnership based on a common need to deter and defend against any threat from Iran, deal with regional instability in countries like Iraq and Yemen, counter the threat of terrorism and extremism, and deal with the other threats to the flow of Gulf petroleum exports.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and North America

429. Realizing the Vision

Author:: Maren Leed and Ariel Robinson
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The U.S. Army is facing a time of great change. The security environment is becoming increasingly complex and uncertain, with defense challenges multiplying. At the same time, the Army is adjusting to rapidly diminishing operational demands, falling end strength, reorganization, and tightening budgets. Despite this churn, the Army has continued its long-standing emphasis on the centrality of the soldier and squad as the cornerstone of future operations. Chiefs of staff going back decades or more have reiterated the theme that soldiers (and more recently, squads) remain the fundamental essence of the institution. Given these new realities, the CSIS Harold Brown Chair in Defense Policy Studies examined the current state of the soldier/squad system and how it might be best advanced in the face of constrained budgets. The effort was conducted under the rubric of the Ground Forces Dialogue, a Brown Chair effort aimed at facilitating a broad, sustained, web-based conversation about the future of U.S. ground forces.
Topic:: Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: North America

430. Afghanistan after the Drawdown

Author:: Gerald F. Hyman
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In his 2013 State of the Union speech, President Barack Obama announced that by the end of 2014 "our war in Afghanistan will be over" and, a month earlier, that "by the end of next year, 2014, the transition will be complete—Afghans will have full responsibility for their security, and this war will come to a responsible end." The military transition, successful or not, is in full swing. Of course the war will not come to an end in 2014, responsible or otherwise. Even if the military drawdown goes as planned, "America's commitment to a unified and sovereign Afghanistan will endure, but the nature of our commitment will change," the president said. On the military side, our enduring commitment will focus on training, equipping, and funding the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and "some counterterrorism efforts that allow us to pursue remnants of al Qaeda and their affiliates," presumably the Taliban. As the United States draws down, so too will the remaining coalition countries of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) under North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) command.
Topic:: Security, Development, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and South Asia

431. The Challenges to Transition in Afghanistan: 2014-2015

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Creating political unity and reasons to be loyal to government. Creating a new structure of governance and balance between factions. Effective revenue collection, budget planning and expenditure, and limits to corruption. Fully replacing NATO/ISAF with the ANSF and "layered defense". Creating a new structure of security forces, advisors, and aid funds, to include addressing the presence of US and other nations' personnel. Acting on the Tokyo Conference: Creating effective flow and use of aid, economic reform, and limits to corruption and waste Stabilizing a market economy driven by military spending and moving towards development: Brain drain and capital flight. Coping with weather and other challenges to agricultural structure and with pressures to increase the narco - economy. Dealing with neighbors: Pakistan, I ran, Central Asian nations, India, China, and Russia.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Military Strategy, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, China, South Asia, India, and North America

432. New Energy, New Geopolitics

Author:: Maren Leed, Sarah O. Ladislaw, Jane Nakano, Molly A. Walton, Frank A. Verrastro, Michelle Melton, and Andrew Metrick
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In the last nine years, U.S. shale gas and tight oil production has skyrocketed. Between 2005 and 2014, U.S. production of crude oil and natural gas has risen by nearly 65 and 34 percent, respectively, due to tight oil and shale gas development. The shale gas supplies from Pennsylvania alone equal the entire natural gas export capacity of Qatar, the world's second largest natural gas exporter in 2012. And the increase from light tight oil production in places like North Dakota and Texas over the last five years is equivalent to Iraq's current production levels. These increased energy supplies have fed not only national but global markets, helping to offset other market disruptions and stabilize prices, to the benefit of many.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Markets
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and North America

433. Family Planning and Linkages with U.S. Health and Development Goals

Author:: Janet Fleischman and Alisha Kramer
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: For decades, the United States has been the global leader in supporting voluntary family planning services around the world. The benefits of family planning are numerous, not only for women's health, but also for increasing child survival, nutrition, education, and economic development, as well as preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV. For these reasons, family planning is a core component of sustainable development.
Topic:: Health, Foreign Aid, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and United States

434. Exploring New Ways to Provide Enduring Strategic Effects for the Department of Defense

Author:: Clark A. Murdock and Samuel J. Brannen
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: A CSIS study team led by senior adviser Clark Murdock and senior fellow Sam Brannen undertook an eight-month study to explore new "ways" of using U.S. military power to achieve enduring strategic effects. As the defense budget decreases over the coming decade, and with defense strategic priorities of the United States taken as a constant, the CSIS study team sought to identify new approaches, reflect on U.S. lessons l earned from historical cases, consider international defense best practices, and examine potentially transferrable approaches from the private sector to achieve defense strategic ends. Insights from the study were shared throughout the process with the sponsoring OSD Strategy Office in support of its role in the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR).
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Border Control
Political Geography:: United States and North America

435. Replenishing GAVI in 2014: Options for U.S. Engagement

Author:: Katherine E. Bliss
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Toward the end of 2014, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI) will host a pledging conference to generate funds for activities to be carried out during 2016–2020.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Health, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: United States

436. The Indian Ocean Region: A Strategic Net Assessment

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: This study examines the key strategic risks that shape the stability and security of the Indian Ocean Region or IOR. This means examining risks that cut across a vast span of territory that directly affects both the global economy and some 32 nations–some within the limits of the Indian Ocean, but others that play a critical role in shaping the security of the nations in the IOR region and the security of its sea lanes and petroleum exports.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:: India and Asia

437. Full text issue

Author:: Brad Glosserman and Carl Baker
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Political Geography:: China and Thailand

438. Full text issue

Author:: Brad Glosserman and Carl Baker
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Asia, and South Korea

439. Full text issue A Triannual E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations

Author:: Brad Glosserman and Carl Baker
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Washington and East Asia

440. Pakistan and Afghanistan: International Indicators of Progress

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: It is unclear that the United States has any current assessments and strategy to deal with either these governance or economic issues. If it does, it has provided no transparency as to what these plans are, and has failed to develop any effective public measures of the effectiveness of its civil aid programs after more than 10 years of effort, and in spite of the fact that the civil dimension of counterinsurgency efforts is at least as important as the military efforts. It is also important to note that World Bank and UN reporting show the same lack of progress in governance, economics, and human development in Pakistan as in Afghanistan.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, and World Bank
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and India

441. Building Networks of Diplomatic Cooperation

Author:: Daniel F. Runde and Amasia Zargarian
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The United States currently maintains formal diplomatic relations with all but five United Nations member-states. In addition to these five countries, there are states—including Venezuela—with which U.S. relations continue to be strained. In most such relationships, cooperation across societies is challenging, hampered by seemingly insurmountable political differences between governments. When official cooperation at the higher levels of government proves infeasible, it is often in the interest of both countries to pursue alternative, more informal approaches, sometimes referred to as "Track II diplomacy." Such forms of diplomacy allow for exchanges of people and ideas to build confidence between the two sides. Ideally, the modest gains in trust from Track II diplomacy will translate into a broader opening for political rapprochement.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and Venezuela

442. Amphibious Shipping Shortfalls

Author:: Maren Leed
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: For those in the amphibious operations business, these are tough times. Amphibious ships—the "work horse of the fleet" — are in short supply, and demand for the capabilities they bring to the table shows no sign of abating. Navy and Marine leaders, the Department of Defense, and the Congress are actively engaged in managing the risks that result from this gap in capability, though they are by no means unique to amphibious ships, the Navy, or the joint force more broadly.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, and Science and Technology

443. Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development: Chinese and Outside Perspectives

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC) face a critical need to improve their understanding of how each is developing its military power and how to avoid forms of military competition that could lead to rising tension or conflict between the two states. This report focuses on China's military developments and modernization and how they are perceived in the US, the West, and Asia.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

444. The Struggle for the Levant: Geopolitical Battles and the Quest for Stability

Author:: Aram Nerguizian
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The United States and its allies compete with Iran in a steadily more unsettled and uncertain Levant. The political upheavals in the Middle East, economic and demographic pressures, sectarian struggles and extremism, ethnic and tribal conflicts and tensions all combine to produce complex patterns of competition.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

445. Opportunities in the Development of Pakistan's Private Sector

Author:: Sadika Hameed
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Relations between the United States and Pakistan have begun to improve after several years of heightened tensions. Yet many challenges remain. Among them is how to improve Pakistan's economy. Its economic crisis is one of the main sources of its internal tensions, but multiple opportunities exist to improve its economic performance. The policy debate in the United States, however, is still dominated by a focus on terrorism and extremism. While Pakistan's stability is a natural concern for the United States, focusing primarily on security issues limits the options for improving stability.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Economics
Political Geography:: Pakistan and United States

446. Repurposing Global Polio Eradication's Tool Kit

Author:: Nellie Bristol
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), a 26 year, $11 billion drive to eradicate poliovirus worldwide, is one of the largest public health initiatives ever. It is led by national governments together with the World Health Organization (WHO), the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Rotary International, and the Bill Melinda Gates Foundation. Involving a variety of partners from NGOs to universities and foundations and engaging millions of health workers and volunteers, the GPEI has provided billions of polio vaccine doses around the world. While it recently has faced new outbreaks and international spread of poliovirus, the GPEI has reduced the annual number of polio cases globally by more than 99 percent.
Topic:: Health, World Health Organization, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: India and United Nations

447. Security Transition in Afghanistan

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Creating an effective transition for the ANSF is only one of the major challenges that Afghanistan, the US, and Afghanistan's other allies face during 2014-2015 and beyond.
Topic:: Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Middle East

448. The Civil Transition in Afghanistan: 2014-2016

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Creating an effective transition for the ANSF is only one of the major challenges that Afghanistan, the US, and Afghanistan's other allies face during 2014 2015 and beyond. The five other key challenges include: Going from an uncertain election to effective leadership and political cohesion and unity. Creating an effective and popular structure governance, with suitable reforms, from the local to central government, reducing corruption to acceptable levels, and making suitable progress in planning, budgeting, and budget execution. Coping with the coming major cuts in outside aid and military spending in Afghanistan, adapting to a largely self-financed economy, developing renewal world economic development plans, carrying out the reforms pledged at the Tokyo Conference, and reducing the many barriers to doing business. Establishing relations with Pakistan and other neighbors that will limit outside pressures and threats, and insurgent sanctuaries on Afghanistan's border. Persuading the US, other donors, NGCO, and nations will to provide advisors to furnish the needed aid effort through at least 2018, and probably well beyond.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

449. Losing the "Forgotten War" The U.S. Strategic Vacuum in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: President Obama has addressed the need to deal with Ukraine and the Islamic State in speeches and at the NATO Ministerial meeting Afghanistan, however, has become the forgotten war at a time when the Taliban is making steady gains, civilian casualties are rising there is still no effective Afghan government the Afghan economy is in crisis, and there still are no clear plans for any post 2014 aspect of transition.
Topic:: Islam
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

450. Respond and Restrain: Deterrence and Reassurance in Northeast Asia

Author:: Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The US extended deterrent in Northeast Asia is strong. US alliances with Japan and South Korea are each arguably in the best shape in years, with alliance modernization efforts proceeding in tandem with domestic adjustments to security policy that strengthen the foundation for cooperative action. Policy toward North Korea, historically a wedge between Washington and allied governments in the region, is largely aligned, and serving as a glue rather than a source of discord. This otherwise sunny outlook is darkened by the difficulties in the Seoul-Tokyo relationship. The (from a US perspective) obvious convergence of interests among the three governments is overshadowed by a lengthy and depressingly well-rehearsed list of problems. The second US-ROK-Japan Trilateral Extended Deterrence Dialogue, hosted by Pacific Forum CSIS and the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, with indirect support from the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), explored ways to overcome those obstacles to enhanced cooperation. In an attempt to push the envelope, the 43 senior participants from the three countries joined 17 Pacific Forum Young Leaders (all attending in their private capacities) in discussions and a tabletop exercise that was designed to explore reactions to a nuclear contingency on the Korean Peninsula. The results were sobering and underscored the need for increased coordination and planning among the three governments to prepare for such a crisis in Northeast Asia.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

451. Korean Unification in a New Era

Author:: Victor D. Cha
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: As a result of a speech delivered by Republic of Korea (ROK) president Park Geun- hye in Dresden, Germany, on March 28, 2014, the topic of unification of the Korean peninsula has been on the minds of many. This is, of course, not the first time that unification has been in the news. During the Cold War era, unification was defined as the absolute military victory of one side over the other. In Korean, this was known as “songgong t'ongil” or “p'ukch'in t'ongil” (“march north” or “unification by force”). In political science literature influenced by the European experience, it was defined as the perfect integration of the two countries. After the reunification of Germany on October 3, 1990, unification was seen as the economic and political absorption of one side by the other. And yet at other times, it was defined, by both North and South Korea, as the imperfect operation of one country, two systems. For a decade during the period of “sunshine” policy, 1997–2007, unification was defined as something to be avoided for generations. It was framed as an outcome that was too difficult to contemplate, too dangerous to suggest, and too expensive to afford.
Topic:: Security, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: South Korea, North Korea, and Germany

452. International Shifts and Their Security Impact on the Gulf: Key Trends and Key Numbers

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: I have been asked to help set the stage for this conference by looking at the broader issues that can address the issue of A World with No Axis? International Shifts and their Impact on the Gulf. I have spent enough time in the Gulf over the years to know how often people have strong opinions, interesting conspiracy theories, and a tendency to ignore hard numbers and facts. We all suffer from the same problems, but today I'm going to focus as much on f act s and numbers as possible. I'm only going to select only a portion of the key trends and numbers involved in my oral remarks , but I will leave the conference with a much longer paper that lists a fuller range of such data. This paper that will also be on the CSIS web site, along with a series of very detailed papers on the military balance in the Gulf. If you want to provide me with your card, I'll also make sure the papers involved are sent to your directly.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Qatar

453. The Gulf Military Balance Volume III: The Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman, Robert M. Shelala II, and Omar Mohamed
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula are critical to US strategic interests and collectively represent the single most important theater in the US - Iranian strategic competition. The proximity of the Arab Gulf states to Iran; the region's geostrategic value to the stability of the global economy; the shifting military balance; and the social, demographic, and economic tensions that threaten to create political upheavals in several key states make it a potential flash -point for tensions between Washington and Tehra.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:: Washington, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates

454. Evolving Threats and Strategic Partnership in the Gulf

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: This paper provides an updated analysis of the military balance in the Gulf region focusing on US power projection capability and the relative size and capability of GCC and Iranian military forces. It shows that Iran is anything but a regional superpower if GCC states provide the cooperation and interoperability between their forces.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: Iran and Arabia

455. Gulf Security, Stability, and Terrorism: Country Rankings

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: There is no one way to measure the level of security and stability in given countries, the conditions of life, or the rising threat posed by internal; and domestic terrorism. This analysis provides a wide range of metrics from reporting by the World Bank, UN, and US government. It focuses on trends and it will be immediately clear to the reader that it does not always reflect the shattering impact of the violence and upheavals that have taken place in some countries since 2011.
Topic:: Religion, Terrorism, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:: Arabia

456. Assessing a Deal or Non-deal with Iran: The Critical Issue of Iran's Progress in Weapons Research, Development, and Production Capability.

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: It now seems unlikely that the P5+1 countries of the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany can reach a comprehensive agreement with Iran by the end of November. A final agreement remains a possibility, but it seems far more likely that if an agreement is not reached, the negotiations will be extended rather than abandoned all together. The question then arises as to how to judge the outcome of this set of negotiations, be it an actual agreement, an extension, or the collapse of the negotiations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, France, and Germany

457. Iran's Nuclear Missile Delivery Capability

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Recently there has been a lot of attention given to the “Possible Military Dimension” of the Iran Nuclear Program, in particular concerns over Iran's ballistic missile program and its nuclear delivery capability. Iran's potential acquisition of nuclear weapons, and future ability to arm its missiles and aircraft with such weapons, represents the most serious risk shaping US, Arab, Israeli, and EU relationship with Iran. It is also an area where the exact details of threat perceptions are particularly critical, although many key aspects of Israeli, US, and G ulf perceptions – as well as the perceptions of other states – are impossible to determine at an unclassified level.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Iran

458. A Key Update: Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition: Sharply Contradictory Data on Levels of Violence

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman, Michael Peacock, and Aaron Lin
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Data on Afghan Surge show had little or no lasting impact. NATO/ISAF stopped all meaningful reporting on security trends after EIA fiasco. No maps or assessments of insurgent control or influence versus limited dataf 10 worst areas of tactical encounters. No maps or assessments of areas of effective government control and support and areas where government is not present or lacks support. Shift from direct clashes to high profile and political attacks makes it impossible to assess situation using past metrics, but HPAs sharply up. UN casualty data and State Department START data on terrorism highly negative. No reason for insurgents to engage NATO/ISAF or ANSF on unfavorable terms before combat NATO/ISAF forces are gone.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

459. Improving Maternal, Neonatal, and Child Health in Ghana

Author:: Katherine E. Bliss and Cathryn Streifel
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In June 2014, a small team from the CSIS Global Health Policy Center traveled to Ghana to examine U.S. bilateral support for maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH). The purpose of the trip was to plan a return visit with a delegation of U.S. congressional staff in August 2014. Ghana's mixed progress toward meeting Millennium Development Goals (MDG) 4 and 5 related to maternal and child health; its strong relationship on immunizations with Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; and its longstanding partnership on health with the United States were all reasons we decided to examine the country's MNCH situation. By late July, the acceleration of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa led us to postpone the trip until emergency preparations are not a major focus of the Ghanaian government, the United States, and other partners. Considering the fruitful meetings we had in June, we have captured here some of our initial impressions, observations, and recommendations.
Topic:: Health, Infectious Diseases, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and Ghana

460. Thinking beyond Roadmaps in Somalia

Author:: Dominik Balthasar
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Hope and optimism accompanied the installation of the new Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in September 2012, but the administration today appears to be drifting toward failure once again. Al - Shabaab is far from defeated, social fragmentation within Somalia is on the rise, and political infighting continues unabated. Despite considerable international support and the promise of a “New Deal” for donor engagement, the joint efforts of the government and its international partners have been unable to translate burgeoning progress into a more sustainable trajectory away from perpetual conflict and fragility.
Topic:: Political Violence, Governance, and Self Determination
Political Geography:: Somalia

461. Remaking American Power

Author:: Trevor Houser, Shashank Mohan, Sarah O. Ladislaw, Michelle Melton, John Larsen, and Whitney Ketchum
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: On June 2, 2014, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its draft Clean Power Plan (CPP), a proposed rule to regulate carbon dioxide from the nation's existing power generation facilities. As the central pillar of the Obama administration's strategy for addressing climate change, the draft rule's release was both highly anticipated and contentious.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Government, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: America

462. Achieving Disaster Resilience in U.S. Communities

Author:: Stephanie Sanok Kostro and Garrett Riba
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters, the rising amount of economic losses, and the mounting costs of providing relief indicate the growing importance of disaster resilience. Disasters have far- reaching consequences, ranging from the most basic physical injuries and property losses to long- term psychological, economic, and cultural damage. Merely supplementing resources to address the aftermath of disasters— rather than mitigating risks and putting in place key elements in advance of a disaster— is not a sustainable model for community resilience. Additionally, failure to utilize the resources of all public- and private- sector stakeholders to develop long- term planning mechanisms leaves communities vulnerable to repeated, high levels of damage and destruction.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, Government, Terrorism, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:: United States

463. Southeast Asia from Scott Circle: Malaysia Steps into Spotlight as ASEAN and East Asia Summit Chair

Author:: Phuong Nguyen
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Expectations for this week's East Asia Summit and related meetings have been rather modest given the increasing complexity of issues facing countries in Asia and the limited capacity of Myanmar as host. To be clear, Myanmar has done a commendable job given this is its first time chairing ASEAN and hosting other regional meetings.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:: Malaysia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia

464. Underestimating Risk in the Surveillance Debate

Author:: James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Americans are reluctant to accept terrorism is part of their daily lives, but attacks have been planned or attempted against American targets (usually airliners or urban areas) almost every year since 9/11. Europe faces even greater risk, given the thousands of EU citizens who will return hardened and radicalized from fighting in Syria and Iraq.
Topic:: Intelligence, Terrorism, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Europe, and Syria

465. North Korea Heading for the Abyss

Author:: Bruce Klingner
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: For some Asian experts, Kim Jong-un's December 2013 purge of his uncle and éminence grise, Jang Song-taek, changed everything. Hopes that the young, Western-educated North Korean leader would initiate long-predicted reform were dashed, replaced by rising fears of instability in the nuclear-armed nation. For other analysts, the purge merely affirmed everything that had seemed so obvious since the coronation of Kim petit-fils, namely that he would maintain the policies of his predecessors, though in a more erratic and riskier manner. Regardless of who was right, what are the policy implications going forward?
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

466. The United States and South Korea: Who Does What if the North Fails?

Author:: Kent Harrington and Bennett Ramberg
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: After several years of uncertainty about Kim Jong-un and his grip on power, analysis of North Korea has settled back into well-worn patterns. In Washington, Seoul, and elsewhere, mainstream commentary seems to have shelved concerns about the North's stability, returning instead to questions that represent hearty perennials for Pyongyang watchers: Is Kim prepared to open the North's moribund economy to Chinese-style reform, or is the latest dynastic offspring simply intent on the survival of his draconian family regime? Do the North's rhetoric and intermittent provocations threaten conflict, or are they simply more of the same theatrics out of an isolated elite? Notwithstanding its long history of broken pledges, is a nuclear deal possible—or are the North's weapons permanently in its arsenal? Add to all this the focus on North Korea's recent offer to Tokyo to investigate the fate of scores of Japanese citizens kidnapped by its agents since the 1960s, as well as the warming relations with Moscow as President Putin reaches out to burnish Russia's Asian role, and attention to Pyongyang's new normalcy appears to have supplanted anxiety about the regime's potential to fall.
Political Geography:: Washington, North Korea, and Tokyo

467. The Key to the North Korean Targeted Sanctions Puzzle

Author:: John S. Park
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: At no point in the history of U.S. nonproliferation and counterproliferation policy have financial sanctions been so central to U.S. efforts to prevent or rollback the acquisition of nuclear weapons in countries such as North Korea and Iran. Despite this crucial role, financial sanctions have been examined almost solely from the sender's perspective, that is, the country imposing the sanctions. Few focused policy analyses have measured the effects of these instruments from the target's perspective.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and North Korea

468. Breaking the North Korean Nuclear Deadlock: a Global Action Plan

Author:: Duk-min Yun and Wooseon Choi
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The North Korean nuclear problem has entered a new stage as Pyongyang has developed more robust nuclear capabilities with the successful launch of a long - range missile in December 2012, a third nuclear test in 2013, and further missile tests in June 2014. The United States is now beginning to face the real risk that North Korea could soon develop the capability to directly strike the U.S. homeland. This situation has also raised concern among South Koreans about the credibility of extended deterrence provided by the United States. At the same time, the chances of a North Korean provocation have increased as conventional deterrence becomes less important.
Political Geography:: United States, South Korea, and North Korea

469. Drawing Red Lines Right

Author:: Bruno Tertrais
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In the past two years, the expression "red line" has become a regular feature of the global policy debate. So much so that it risks becoming a punch line. Red lines have appeared in discussions about the Ukraine crisis, Iran's nuclear program, and Syrian use of chemical weapons. President Obama famously stated in 2012 that "a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized."
Topic:: Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Turkey, Ukraine, and Argentina

470. Revitalizing the Rebalance: How to Keep U.S. Focus on Asia

Author:: Michael J. Green and Zack Cooper
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In November 2011, President Barack Obama announced that the United States would rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region. Although this shift had been underway for years, experts across the Pacific generally welcomed Washington's increased attention. From the beginning, however, the U.S. Congress and governments in Asia have questioned whether the rebalance announcement was backed by the necessary resources and implementation strategy. Under the 2012 National Defense Authorization Act, Congress tasked an independent assessment of the rebalance strategy with a particular focus on plans for realigning U.S. forces in the region. In authoring that independent assessment and a recent follow - on report for the Pentagon, we conducted hundreds of interviews and concluded that the general thrust of the strategy was right, but further efforts were needed to articulate and implement the strategy with greater clarity and consistency for the Congress as well as U.S. allies and partners. Two years after that initial review, we have updated our own findings and concluded that implementation of the rebalance is proceeding apace, but some of the foundational conceptual and resource problems remain. With just two years remaining in the Obama administration, it is vital that the United States revitalize the rebalance and keep its focus on Asia.
Political Geography:: Japan, China, India, and Asia

471. Less is More: The Future of the U.S. Military in the Persian Gulf

Author:: Joshua Rovner and Caitlin Talmadge
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Five years ago, the total number of U.S. military personnel in the Persian Gulf was over 230,000. Today, that number is well under 50,000. The rapid exit of so many U.S. fighting men and women has caused many observers to fear for the future of the Gulf. As one analyst put it, the regional forecast is bleak with "violence, followed by intermittent violence, and renewed violence." Beyond the short - term problem of insecurity lies a raft of long - term nightmares, including political instability, oil shocks, and nuclear proliferation. Policymakers and military officials in Washington and the Persian Gulf share these concerns. The belief that a precipitous U.S. drawdown is creating a security vacuum and political breakdown is close to the conventional wisdom.
Topic:: Military Affairs
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Washington, and Persia

472. The Fool's Errand for a Perfect Deal with Iran

Author:: Sven-Eric Fikenscher and Robert J. Reardon
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: After months of optimistic statements from negotiators, the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) and Iran still have not achieved a comprehensive agreement to resolve the nuclear dispute. However, the interim Joint Plan of Action (JPA) is—at this writing—still in force and both sides maintain that a comprehensive deal remains within reach.
Political Geography:: United States and Iran

473. Has India Peaked?

Author:: John R. Schmidt
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Has India peaked? This may seem like a strange question given the strong economic growth the country has experienced since it liberalized its economy in 1991. Together with China, India is widely regarded as the greatest global economic success story of the past quarter century, with growth rates typically ranging between 5 and 10 percent. 1 Although its growth rate has declined recently to less than 5 percent due in part to the global economic downturn, the landslide victory of the strongly pro - business BJP (for Bharatiya Janata Party, or Indian People's Party) in the spring 2014 elections has convinced many that it will begin trending up again in the near future.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: China and India

474. Modi's Unexpected Boost to India-U.S. Relations

Author:: Harsh V. Pant
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: A new government took office in India in May 2014 under the prime ministership of Narendra Modi. One of the first decisions it took was to invite the member states of the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) for the swearing - in ceremony. The decision was a surprise but widely viewed as a great move, underscoring the resolve of the new government to embed India firmly within the South Asian regional matrix. It also underlined that, even though Modi's priorities will be largely domestic, foreign policy will continue to receive due attention. Modi also immediately set for himself a frenetic pace of international travel for the remainder of 2014, covering countries as diverse as Bhutan, Japan, Brazil, Australia, Nepal, and others in Southeast Asia.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, India, Australia, and Southeast Asia

475. Beyond Putin? Nationalism and Xenophobia in Russian Public Opinion

Author:: Theodore P. Gerber
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The role of nationalism within the Russian public is an under - examined but potentially important aspect of the crisis surrounding Russia's annexation of Crimea and its continuing involvement in eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. As commentators have sought to comprehend President Vladimir Putin's motives, many have asserted or assumed that such actions enjoy tremendous Russian public support. Indeed, public opinion polls from Russia indicate that Putin's popularity soared in the wake of the Crimean annexation and that large majorities have supported the government's policies in Ukraine, sympathizing with the Kremlin's negative portrayals of U.S. motives and actions. However, it is not clear whether this wave of public support is a fleeting "rally around the flag" phenomenon or the result of an organic, deeper tendency toward nationalism and xenophobia in the Russian public.
Topic:: Nationalism
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, and Ukraine

476. Is Brazil a 'Responsible Stakeholder' or a Naysayer?

Author:: Esther D. Brimmer
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Will aspiring liberal democracies help maintain the current liberal international order? This current order rests on promoting and maintaining five pillars: peace and security; the market economy, especially international trade and investment; human rights and humanitarian action; sustainable development; and global spaces. Each of these areas is large and complex, and the emergence of new powers is likely to alter that system but not destabilize it.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Brazil, and Caribbean

477. Between Aspiration and Reality: Indonesian Foreign Policy After the 2014 Elections

Author:: Prashanth Parameswaran
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: On October 20, 2014, Indonesia—the world's fourth - largest nation, third - largest democracy, and largest Muslim - majority country—after a decade of stable leadership under Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, inaugurated former Jakarta governor Joko Widodo as its new president. Jokowi, as he is popularly known in Indonesia, will face the daunting task of addressing the country's myriad domestic problems, while also maintaining its role abroad as a regional leader in Southeast Asia as well as a global player in important international fora like the G20 and the United Nations. Indonesian foreign policy will likely display significant continuity with the Yudhoyono years. But in translating Indonesia's foreign policy aspirations into reality, Jokowi will confront major challenges ranging from nagging resource constraints at home to incomplete political transitions and rising nationalism among Indonesia's neighbors abroad. These challenges have profound implications for U.S. policy toward Indonesia, given the closer ties between the two countries over the past few years. U.S. policymakers should factor in these realities as they fashion next steps for U.S.-Indonesia relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Indonesia and United Nations

478. International Shifts and Their Security Impact on the Gulf: Quantifying Key Trends

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: I have been asked to help set the stage for this conference by looking at the broader issues that can address the issue of A World with No Axis? International Shifts and their Impact on the Gulf. I have spent enough time in the Gulf over the years to know how often people have strong opinions, interesting conspiracy theories, and a tendency to ignore hard numbers and facts. We all suffer from the same problems , but today I'm going to focus as much on facts and numbers as possible.
Topic:: Globalization, Bilateral Relations, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: United States and China

479. Chinese Strategy and Military Power in 2014

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC) face a critical need to improve their understanding of how each is developing its military power and how to avoid forms of military competition that could lead to rising tension or conflict between the two states. This report focuses on China 's military developments and modernization and how they are perceived in the US, the West, and Asia.
Topic:: International Security, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Korea

480. Issues and Insights Respond and Restrain: Deterrence and Reassurance in Northeast Asia

Author:: Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The US extended deterrent in Northeast Asia is strong. US alliances with Japan and South Korea are each arguably in the best shape in years, with alliance modernization efforts proceeding in tandem with domestic adjustments to security policy that strengthen the foundation for cooperative action. Policy toward North Korea, historically a wedge between Washington and allied governments in the region, is largely aligned, and serving as a glue rather than a source of discord.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Security, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Japan and South Korea

481. Insecticide Resistance and Malaria A Threat Decades in the Making

Author:: William G. Brogdon, Anthony Fiore, S.P. Kachur, Laurence Slutsker, and Robert A. Wirtz
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Insecticide (DDT) use to control malaria was first employed successfully in the antimalaria program in Greece in 1947. By 1951, DDT success in controlling malaria was reported in 22 countries. However, that year also saw the first report of DDT resistance, in Anopheles sacharovi in Greece. By 1954, resistance to DDT among mosquitos was known to be a global problem, documented in Europe, the Americas, Africa, and Asia. The World Health Organization–led Global Malaria Eradication Program (GMEP) began in 1955, when resistance was already pronounced worldwide. Scientists did not identify the underlying biochemical mechanism contributing to insecticide resistance until 1958. By then, insecticide resistance was recognized by many to be a major contributor to the ultimate dismantling of GMEP, given the limited capabilities and knowledge of the time. Consequently, the global focus shifted from malaria “eradication” to malaria “control” in the late 1960s.
Topic:: Environment, Health, and Infectious Diseases
Political Geography:: Africa, Greece, and Asia

482. U.S. Department of Defense Contributions to Malaria Elimination in the Era of Artemisinin Resistance

Author:: Mark Fukuda and Tom Cullison
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), militaries remain essential to any effort to control and eliminate artemisinin-resistant malaria. Stretching back to World War II and the Vietnam War, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has a long and distinguished history researching and developing new tools for malaria control, in partnership with both military and civilian host government experts. Since the mid-1990s, DoD has significantly expanded its global surveillance, training, and capacity - building investments. As Southeast Asian countries have mobilized in recent years against artemisinin-resistance with the ultimate aim of malaria elimination, DoD and regional militaries have actively joined the effort, initiating promising pilot approaches in Southeast Asia. To strengthen DoD's contribution, it is proposed that the United States launch a Defense Malaria Elimination Program that will significantly enhance partner militaries' capacities, advance the goal of elimination, including the threat of resistance, and accelerate the development of drugs and vaccines.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Health, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:: United States, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia

483. Transformative Tools for Malaria Elimination

Author:: PATH Malaria Center of Excellence
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Over the past 15 years, malaria has gained increased attention and action from the public health community, with researchers, global and national funders, and, most importantly, national governments and communities in endemic areas. Renewed efforts to fight the disease have resulted in an unprecedented 50 percent reduction in malaria deaths in African children since 2000. This progress has been achieved in large part because effective, efficient, and affordable tools emerged as a result of earlier investments in research and development.
Topic:: Health, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, and Infectious Diseases
Political Geography:: Africa

484. The Danger of Untreatable Malaria Is Real and Present

Author:: Christopher V. Plowe
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The malaria parasite is thought to have killed more people throughout human history than any other single cause. Over the last decade, a large increase in resources for combating malaria — with the lion's share coming from U.S. taxpayers — has resulted in dramatic reductions in malaria cases and deaths in many countries. These successes spurred the Bill Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Health Organization (WHO) to call for global eradication of malaria in 2007.
Topic:: Development, Health, Humanitarian Aid, World Health Organization, and Infectious Diseases
Political Geography:: United States

485. Taxes and Development

Author:: Conor M. Savoy and Christina M. Perkins
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The ability of a state to mobilize its own resources to pay for vital social services is at the heart of a well-functioning government. As developing countries have grown wealthier over the past de cade, they have seen a corresponding rise in the amount of domestic revenue available. The numbers are truly staggering: in 2012 developing and emerging economies mobilized $7.7 trillion in domestic resources. Even in sub- Saharan Africa, where the pace of change has been slower, domestic resources topped $530 billion in 2012; official development assistance in contrast totaled approximately $54 billion. Some of this is driven by the commodities boom of the past several years, but much is organic growth that has seen gross domestic product (GDP) rise. These domestic numbers, plus the rapid growth in private capital flows to the developing world, radically change the calculus of development financing.
Topic:: Development, Governance, and Budget
Political Geography:: Africa

486. The Emirates Center and Gulf Think Tanks: The Next Twenty years

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Let me begin by congratulating the Emirates Center and Dr. Jamal Sanad Al-Suwaidi for so many accomplishments over the last 2 0 years. It has been a privilege to watch its growth, its sustained quality, and its steadily increasing influence.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States and Iran

487. Federated Defense in Asia

Author:: Michael J. Green, Kathleen H. Hicks, and Zack Cooper
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The United States has long emphasized the desirability of working with allies and partners to meet pressing security challenges. Indeed, many of our most vexing security concerns—from terrorism to cyber attacks—are best met with concerted multilateral responses. At a time when the United States and many of its allies and partners are reluctant to increase defense and security spending, working together is paramount. This is perhaps most evident in Asia, where present and potential future threats to security and prosperity are high and shared interests are substantial.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and Intelligence
Political Geography:: United States and Asia

488. Strategic Partnerships to Advance Family Planning

Author:: Janet Fleischman and Cathryn Streifel
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Senegalese minister of health, Dr. Awa Marie Coll-Seck, used a familiar term with us to express her commitment to expanding access to family planning—“yes we can.” That is a bold proposition in such a conservative country, in a region with some of the world's highest maternal mortality and unmet need for family planning. Her leadership reflects an important moment in Senegal, and prospects for advancing women's health and family planning in the subregion may depend on its success.
Topic:: Development, Gender Issues, Human Welfare, and Reform
Political Geography:: Senegal

489. The Civil Transition in Afghanistan: The Metrics of Crisis?

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Creating an effective transition for the ANSF is only one of the major challenges that Afghanistan, the US, and Afghanistan's other allies face during 2014-2015 and beyond. The five other key challenges include: Going from an uncertain election to effective leadership and political cohesion and unity. Creating an effective and popular structure governance, with suitable reforms, from the local to central government, reducing corruption to acceptable levels, and making suitable progress in planning, budgeting, and budget execution. Coping with the coming major cuts in outside aid and military spending in Afghanistan, adapting to a largely self-financed economy, developing renewal world economic development plans, carrying out the reforms pledged at the Tokyo Conference, and reducing the many barriers to doing business. Establishing relations with Pakistan and other neighbors that will limit outside pressures and threats, and insurgent sanctuaries on Afghanistan's border. Persuading the US, other donors, NGCO, and nations will to provide advisors to furnish the needed aid effort through at least 2018, and probably well beyond.
Topic:: Corruption, Economics, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Asia

490. Talking Technology Best Practices in Communicating

Author:: Maren Leed, Kathryn Easop, Alvaro Genie, and Jaimie Hoskins
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In recent months, Department of Defense leaders have raised increasing concerns about the potential for the United States to lose its comparative advantage in multiple technology areas. To help address this trend, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel recently directed a “Defense Innovation Initiative” aimed at fostering the development of breakthrough technologies. Success in this effort will require a series of actions, but all rest on one critical factor: a shared understanding across the research and policy communities of the scientific potential and its importance to our national security going forward. Without that common view, scientists in both the public and private sector will be unable to sustain sufficient support to deliver meaningful advances.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: United States

491. Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition - Volume I Introduction, US Policy, and Cuts in US Forces and Spending

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Creating an effective transition for the ANSF is only one of the major challenges that Afghanistan, the US, and Afghanistan's other allies face during 2014-2015 and beyond. The five other key challenges include: Going from an uncertain election to effective leadership and political cohesion and unity. Creating an effective and popular structure governance, with suitable reforms, from the local to central government, reducing corruption to acceptable levels, and making suitable progress in planning, budgeting, and budget execution. Coping with the coming major cuts in outside aid and military spending in Afghanistan, adapting to a largely self - financed economy, developing renewal world economic development plans, carrying out the reforms pledged at the Tokyo Conference, and reducing the many barriers to doing business. Establishing relations with Pakistan and other neighbors that will limit outside pressures and threats, and insurgent sanctuaries on Afghanistan's border. Persuading the US, other donors, NGCO, and nations will to provide advisors to furnish the needed aid effort through at least 2018, and probably well beyond.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Aid, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

492. Afghan Forces on the Edge of Transition–IV: Progress in Afghan Force Development

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: This report reflects major progress in many areas of ANSF development. It also warns, however, just how rapidly the ANSF has expanded, and how poorly that expansion was initially funded and staffed with adequate advisors. It also shows that much of the ANSF is a relatively ineffective and corrupt police force that lacks the support of other key elements of the justice system in many areas. The unclassified reporting also have ceased to provide any meaningful insight into the development of either the Ministry of Defense or Ministry of the Interior, and that the reporting of unclassified readiness data on the ANA and ANP has been reduced in scope over the last six months to the point where it has little or no real meaning.
Topic:: Corruption and Governance
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

493. NATO's Posture after the Wales Summit

Author:: Guillaume Lasconjarias
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The recent NATO Summit in Wales has been viewed as a watershed event not just because of the particular moment at which it took place, but because of the pledges taken by heads of states and governments. For sure, the still ongoing Ukraine crisis and the rising insurgency in Syria-Iraq might have acted as true “wake-up calls”, calling the Alliance to step up its posture and show its determination, especially in terms of commitments towards bolstering the main pillars of the Alliance. The initiatives announced in terms of readiness and defence posture, the Readiness Action Plan in particular, belong to a series of reassurance measures towards Eastern allies, but also revitalize the NATO Response Force through an expeditionary spearhead, the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force. Although some might consider these measures as “too little too late”, they prove the Alliance's cohesion and the commitment to the transatlantic link.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and International Security
Political Geography:: Iraq, Ukraine, and Syria

494. Assessing the Asia-Pacific Rebalance

Author:: Michael J. Green, David J. Berteau, and Zack Cooper
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Three years have passed since President Barack Obama laid the groundwork for the U.S. rebalance to the Asia Pacific region. Support for the rebalance strategy is substantial, but questions remain about its implementation. As China's power grows and its assertive- ness in regional disputes increases, U.S. allies and partners continue to rely on the United States to help reinforce regional security. In this increasingly tense Asia Pacific security environment, it is critical that regional allies, partners, and competitors recognize and acknowledge that the United States is a Pacific power with the ability to carry out its rebalance strategy.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation and Hegemony
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

495. Leveraging Global Value Chains for a Federated Approach to Defense

Author:: David J. Berteau, Scott Miller, Ryan Crotty, and Paul Nadeau
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: CSIS launched the Federated Defense Project to assess and recommend concrete ways for the United States and its partners to integrate their defense capabilities in support of shared interests. Rather than creating interdependencies that would hinder autonomous action or bind partners to commitments to which they only share a tangential interest, the federated defense strategy builds on the natural interests of allies and partners to develop closer working ties to the United States and one another in order to manage the challenges posed by constrained resources and a daunting geostrategic environment. Buttressing any form of federated defense must be a set of bottom-up, organic interactions within the private sector to develop the capabilities that will underpin these security architectures. The expansion of business-to-business relationships among providers of platforms, supplies, and services to the network of trusted partners and allies is a key building block in ensuring adequate capabilities development, integration, and interoperability. To date, this interaction has occurred despite the many barriers that exist to their success. A federated approach will seek to enable this cooperation and lower these barriers, leading to greater cooperation, collaboration, and integration through global value chains (GVCs). Addressing the findings below is essential to the successful execution of a federated approach to defense.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Privatization, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States

496. U.S. Support Essential to Ambitious Global Introduction of Inactivated Polio Vaccine

Author:: Nellie Bristol
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Earlier this fall, Nepal became the first low - income country to introduce the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) into its immunization system. Many more countries will have to follow suit to meet the ambitious deadlines laid out in the Global Polio Eradication Initiative's (GPEI) Polio Eradication Endgame Strategic Plan 2013 – 2018. The plan calls for global introduction of at least one dose of IPV into routine childhood immunization schedules followed by eventual withdrawal of the widely used oral polio vaccine (OPV). Currently, 75 mostly high - and middle - income countries use the injectable IPV in their immunization systems, leaving 119 that need to do so by the end of 2015 to keep with the plan's schedule.
Topic:: Health and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: Asia and Nepal

497. Iran, Evolving Threats, and Strategic Partnerships in the Gulf

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Internal ethnic and sectarian tensions, civil conflict, continued instability, failed governance and economy. Syrian civil war. Iraq, Lebanon, “Shi'ite crescent.” Sectarian warfare and struggle for future of Islam through and outside region. Sunni on Sunni and vs. Shi'ite struggles Terrorism, insurgency, civil conflict linked to outside state and non-state actors. Wars of influence and intimidation Asymmetric conflicts escalating to conventional conflicts. Major “conventional” conflict threats: Iran-Arab Gulf, Arab-Israeli, etc. Economic warfare: sanctions, “close the Gulf,” etc. Missile and long-range rocket warfare Proliferation, preventive strikes, containment, nuclear arms race, extended deterrence, “weapons of mass effectiveness”.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

498. The Metrics of Terrorism and Instability in Pakistan

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The total number of terrorist attacks reported in Pakistan increased 36.8 percent between 2012 and 2013. Fatalities increased 25.3 percent and injuries increased 36.9 percent. No specific perpetrator organization was identified for 86.2 percent of all attacks in Pakistan. Of the remaining attacks, nearly half (49%) were carried out by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Attacks attributed to the TTP killed more than 550 and wounded more than 1,200 in 2013. Twenty other groups, including a number of Baloch nationalist groups such as the Baloch Republican Army, the Baloch Liberation Army, the Baloch Liberation Front, and the Baloch Liberation Tigers, carried out attacks in Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan. More than 37 percent of all attacks in Pakistan took place in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, 28.4 percent took place in Balochistan, and 21.2 percent took place in Sindh province. The proportion of attacks in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) decreased from 19.6 percent in 2012 to 9.4 percent in 2013. The most frequently attacked types of targets in Pakistan were consistent with global patterns. More than 22 percent of all attacks primarily targeted private citizens and property, more than 17 percent primarily targeted the police, and more than 11 percent primarily targeted general (non-diplomatic) government entities. However, these three types of targets accounted for a smaller proportion of attacks in Pakistan (51.1%) than they did globally (61.7%). Instead, terrorist attacks in Pakistan were almost twice as likely to target educational institutions (6.4%) and more than three times as likely to target violent political parties (4.4%), organizations that have at times engaged in both electoral politics and terrorist violence.
Topic:: Political Violence, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Asia

499. Afghanistan's Legacy: Emerging Lessons of an Ongoing War

Author:: Stephen Biddle
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In an important sense, emerging debates on the war's lessons are premature. The war in Afghanistan is not over; nor is it ending anytime soon. Nevertheless, before conventional wisdom consolidates, two observations on counterinsurgency are worth considering now: whether it can work and how to approach governance reform.
Topic:: Security, War, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and America

500. India's Role in a Changing Afghanistan

Author:: Shashank Joshi
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: For India, the Western drawdown of forces in Afghanistan will represent the greatest adverse structural shift in its security environment for over a decade. Yet, a fundamental congruity of interests between Washington and New Delhi, and opportunities for cooperation, remain.
Topic:: Security, NATO, and Environment
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Washington, and India

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS