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Begin New Search Topic Political Violence Publishing Institution Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

1. How Regional Security Concerns Uniquely Constrain Governance in Northeastern Syria

Author:
Kheder Khaddour
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In 2012, when Bashar al-Assad’s regime withdrew most of its security forces from the Jazira in northeastern Syria, it ceded local power to the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing. The PYD replicated past regime behavior, focusing on maintaining a secure hold of this strategic geographical area at the expense of effective governance. This approach has hindered the prospect of building a self-sustained administration. At the same time, outside actors such as Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey, and the United States have inadvertently reinforced the PYD’s security-focused rule while pursuing their own security concerns. Exploring potential avenues to peace and stable governance in Syria requires carefully identifying the interrelated nature of these various actors’ security concerns in the Jazira.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil War, Political Theory, and Governance
Political Geography:
Syria

2. Reducing All Violent Deaths, Everywhere: Why the Data Must Improve

Author:
Rachel Kleinfeld
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include a target to “Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related deaths everywhere.” Given the vast decline in violence since the Middle Ages, particularly since the end of the Cold War, this ambitious target is achievable. But policymakers know the least about the countries receiving the most aid. To ensure that aid and policy are effective, current data gaps and deficiencies must be fully understood and improved. Equally important, the target must include indicators that capture all the main types of violence, not just homicide.
Topic:
Political Violence, Basic Data, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. In Uncharted Waters: Islamist Parties Beyond Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood

Author:
Mark Lynch
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Arab Islamist parties faced exceptional challenges and opportunities following the 2011 uprisings. After decades of facing authoritarian regimes, they suddenly had to navigate in radically new domestic, regional, and intra-Islamist contexts. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood had the most spectacular rise and fall, but its experience was atypical of other Islamist parties, which adapted more successfully. These changes overhauled the structure, ideology, and strategy of these parties in ways that unsettled long-standing expectations about their ideas and behavior.
Topic:
Political Violence and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Egypt

4. Reviving the OSCE: European Security and the Ukraine Crisis

Author:
Stefan Lehne
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After years at the margins of international diplomacy, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has suddenly regained political relevance because of the Ukraine crisis that began in 2014. The organization turned out to be the most appropriate framework to manage the crisis and prevent further escalation. To continue to play a useful role in resolving this issue and in easing tensions between Russia and the West, the OSCE needs to adjust its way of working and strengthen its toolbox. As the relationship between Russia and the West deteriorated at the end of the 1990s, the OSCE’s role declined. The organization’s arms control regime eroded, its debates on human rights relapsed into ideological confrontation, and its work on promoting economic cooperation never got off the ground. The Ukraine crisis has revived the organization. While political crisis management has been left mainly to a few capitals working with the parties to the conflict, the OSCE’s monitoring mission in Ukraine has become an essential factor of stability. Violence has not stopped, however, and the mission’s work remains hampered by insufficient cooperation from the parties. The OSCE has also assumed an important role in facilitating negotiations on implementing the Minsk agreement, which contains a road map for a political settlement. However, little progress has been made so far. diplo
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

5. The Roots of Crisis in Northern Lebanon

Author:
Raphaël Lefèvre
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Syria's civil war is having a dramatic impact on its neighbors, particularly Lebanon. The spillover is glaring in the northern city of Tripoli, where street violence is rising, sectarianism is at unprecedented levels, and Sunni extremism is flourishing. This instability threatens to spread to other areas of the country. Yet, Lebanon's problems have as much to do with domestic dynamics as with the unrest in Syria. Lebanese policymakers must address a number of issues that have long been ignored.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Political Violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

6. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Future of Political Islam in Egypt

Author:
Ashraf El-Sherif
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The current turmoil in Egypt—including social strife, polarization, and violence—has cast shadows on the potential for Islamist integration as well as the regime's ability to achieve political stability. Shifting external and internal dynamics of Islamist organizations indicate five possible scenarios for the future of the Muslim Brotherhood. Its path will have far-reaching implications for political Islam and democratization in Egypt.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, and Islam
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

7. Ending Libya's Civil War: Reconciling Politics, Rebuilding Security

Author:
Frederic M. Wehrey
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
More than three years after the fall of strongman Muammar Qaddafi, Libya is in the midst of a bitter civil war rooted in a balance of weakness between the country's political factions and armed groups. With a domestic landscape torn apart by competing claims to power and with interference from regional actors serving to entrench divides, restoring stability in Libya and building a unified security structure will be difficult if not impossible without broad-based political reconciliation.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Governance
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

8. The State of Iraq

Author:
Marina Ottaway and Danial Kaysi
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Within days of the official ceremonies marking the end of the U.S. mission in Iraq, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki moved to indict Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi on terrorism charges and sought to remove Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq from his position, triggering a major political crisis that fully revealed Iraq as an unstable, undemocratic country governed by raw competition for power and barely affected by institutional arrangements. Large-scale violence immediately flared up again, with a series of terrorist attacks against mostly Shi'i targets reminiscent of the worst days of 2006.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Development, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, War, Fragile/Failed State, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan

9. Tribal Governance and Stability in Yemen

Author:
Nadwa Al-Dawsari
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The power-sharing deal signed by Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh in November 2011 mentioned presidential elections, the formation of a national unity government, and a military commission to reform the armed forces. It was at best the first step in Yemen's recovery from the protracted turmoil and instability that wracked the country for months.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Democratization, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

10. Building a Better Yemen

Author:
Charles Schmitz
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Yemeni economy is often portrayed as a dire picture of impending disaster, as the country runs out of oil and even more devastatingly of water. Yemen's economic problems are real, but they are not caused by an absolute, irreparable shortage of resources. Rather, it is Yemen's contentious politics and its lack of institutional development that constitute the main obstacle to surmounting present economic difficulties.
Topic:
Political Violence, Development, Economics, Poverty, Natural Resources, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

11. Libya's Troubled Transition

Author:
Paul Salem and Amanda Kadlec
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
More than a year after the outbreak of the uprising against Muammar Qaddafi's rule, Libya is in the midst of a challenging transition. Qaddafi is dead, his forty-two-year-old regime overthrown, and the country liberated. And now Libyans are laying the groundwork for elections that will start their country on the path to a new constitution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, and Arabia

12. From Violence to Moderation: Al-Jama'a al-Islamiya and al-Jihad

Author:
Sarah Grebowski and Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Recognition by Egypt's leading Jihadists that violence has failed to achieve political change and in fact has been counterproductive has led them to a remarkable change of course.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

13. War in Saada: From Local Insurrection to National Challenge

Author:
Christopher Boucek
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Yemen's leaders consider their sporadic war against the Houthi rebels a conflict they can win and, in so doing, discourage southern secessionists—a more immediate threat to their hold on power and the nation's territorial integrity. Instead, this war in the North has exposed greater vulnerabilities for the regime, weakened the central government, and emboldened other threats to Yemeni and global stability such as al-Qaeda.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil War, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Yemen and Arabia

14. The Political Challenge of Yemen's Southern Movement

Author:
Stephen Day
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Three opposition groups within Yemen are undermining that country's stability. The newest, called the Southern Movement, has been less militant than al-Qaeda or the al-Huthi rebels on the northern border with Saudi Arabia. It began in 2007 and used peaceful means to seek redress of problems rooted in the troubled unification of North and South Yemen in 1990. The creation of the new state has meant problems for residents of the South: issues of national identity, economic grievances, and concerns over access to political power.
Topic:
Political Violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

15. What Comes Next in Yemen? Al-Qaeda, the Tribes, and State-Building

Author:
Sarah Phillips
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
News that the failed Christmas Day attack on a U.S. passenger jet was tied to al-Qaeda elements in Yemen prompted questions of whether the fractious Arab state might give rise to a Taliban-style regime. For its part, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has stated its intent to achieve “our great Islamic project: establishing an Islamic Caliphate” but it is vulnerable to the threat that Yemen's tribes may ultimately find its presence a liability.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Taliban, Yemen, and Arabia