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41. Russian Ideology After Crimea

Author:
Andrei Kolesnikov
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Following the annexation of Crimea in March 2014, the Russian public has embraced an increasingly conservative and nationalistic ideology. Any repudiation of this ideology, let alone the transformation of the country as a whole, will only happen if demand for change from the bottom coincides with a desire for modernization from the top. The new social contract demands that the Russian people surrender their freedom in return for Crimea and a sense of national pride. It seizes on changes that have already occurred in the minds of many Russians. The new ideology is based on a deliberate recycling of archaic forms of mass consciousness, a phenomenon that can be termed the sanctification of unfreedom. Confined to a besieged fortress, surrounded by external enemies, and faced with a domestic fifth column, the people of Russia have begun to experience Stockholm syndrome and have thrown their support behind the commander of the fortress, President Vladimir Putin. They have adopted his logic and even defended his interests, believing that they are members of his team. Freedom of expression has been significantly curtailed through a system of bans and strict forms of punishment, including criminal prosecution, which have both didactic and deterrent components. Pressure on democratic media outlets has also increased drastically. Ideology in Russia is a mass product that is easy to absorb; it is legitimized by constant references to the past, glorious traditions, and occasionally fictional historical events.
Topic:
Human Rights, Nationalism, Political Economy, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Russia

42. Reviving the OSCE: European Security and the Ukraine Crisis

Author:
Stefan Lehne
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After years at the margins of international diplomacy, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has suddenly regained political relevance because of the Ukraine crisis that began in 2014. The organization turned out to be the most appropriate framework to manage the crisis and prevent further escalation. To continue to play a useful role in resolving this issue and in easing tensions between Russia and the West, the OSCE needs to adjust its way of working and strengthen its toolbox. As the relationship between Russia and the West deteriorated at the end of the 1990s, the OSCE’s role declined. The organization’s arms control regime eroded, its debates on human rights relapsed into ideological confrontation, and its work on promoting economic cooperation never got off the ground. The Ukraine crisis has revived the organization. While political crisis management has been left mainly to a few capitals working with the parties to the conflict, the OSCE’s monitoring mission in Ukraine has become an essential factor of stability. Violence has not stopped, however, and the mission’s work remains hampered by insufficient cooperation from the parties. The OSCE has also assumed an important role in facilitating negotiations on implementing the Minsk agreement, which contains a road map for a political settlement. However, little progress has been made so far. diplo
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

43. The Rise of Nontraditional Islam in the Urals

Author:
Alexey Malashenko and Alexey Starosin
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
There have been significant changes in the composition and distribution of Russia’s Muslim community during the era of President Vladimir Putin. In particular, as Islam expands in the Ural Federal District, religious and political life there is evolving. Much of this expansion is due to the arrival of Muslim migrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus, and some migrants bring with them religious radicalism—a challenge that requires a more effective official response.
Topic:
Islam, Migration, Politics, and Radicalization
Political Geography:
Russia

44. Exploring the Prospects for Russian-Turkish Cooperation in a Turbulent Neighborhood

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin and Memduh Karakullukçu
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Even though tensions over Ukraine will inevitably cast a shadow over the bilateral relationship, Russia and Turkey—a NATO member—continue to share a range of important interests. Indeed, there are a number of areas in which the two can work together in their common neighborhood, which stretches from the South Caucasus and the Levant to Central Asia and Afghanistan. A high-level working group on Russian-Turkish regional cooperation has sketched a forward-looking approach for Russia and Turkey in tackling regional challenges.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

45. Russia's Breakout From the Post–Cold War System: The Drivers of Putin's Course

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In 2014, Russia broke out of the post-Cold War order and openly challenged the U.S.-led international system. This was essentially the result of the failure of attempts to integrate Russia into the Euro-Atlantic community. The new period of rivalry between the Kremlin and the West is likely to endure for years. Moscow's new course is laid down first and foremost by President Vladimir Putin, but it also reflects the rising power of Russian nationalism.
Topic:
Cold War, Nationalism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

46. Why Defense Matters: A New Narrative for NATO

Author:
Judy Dempsey
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is in search of a new narrative. While Russia's involvement in Eastern Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea will not give NATO a new sense of solidarity, these events have highlighted what the alliance and its members must urgently do. It is time for all NATO countries to engage in a real strategic debate about why defense matters and what members should do to uphold the transatlantic relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Reform
Political Geography:
Russia, North Atlantic, and Ukraine

47. The Ukraine Crisis and the Resumption of Great-Power Rivalry

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Ukraine crisis that erupted in early 2014 has brought an end to the post-Cold War status quo in Europe. Russia, feeling betrayed by its Western partners because of their support for regime change in Kiev, has stepped forward to protect its vital interests-which the West saw as aggression by a revisionist power. The ensuing conflict will last long and have an impact far beyond Europe.
Topic:
Cold War and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

48. Russia and the Arab Spring

Author:
Alexey Malashenko
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia has spent over a decade trying to recapture the influence the Soviet Union once enjoyed in the Middle East, but President Vladimir Putin's attempts to position Moscow as a key regional player have come up short. With revolutions across the Arab world overturning old orders and ushering in Islamist governments, Russia's chances for strengthening its position in the region look increasingly slim. The Kremlin must change course and ensure that its approach to the Middle East and Islamists reflects post–Arab Spring realities.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Russia, Middle East, Soviet Union, and Arabia

49. The Stalin Puzzle: Deciphering Post-Soviet Public Opinion

Author:
Thomas de Waal, Maria Lipman, Lev Gudkov, and Lasha Bakradze
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Soviet leader who was responsible for the deaths of millions over his thirty-year rule still commands worryingly high levels of admiration for a host of reasons. These findings are clear in the first-ever comparative opinion polls on the dictator in the post-Soviet countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Russia. The surveys, commissioned by the Carnegie Endowment in 2012, suggest de- Stalinization has not succeeded in the former Soviet Union and most post-Soviet citizens have not come to grips with their history.
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, History, Governance, Culture, and Reform
Political Geography:
Russia, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

50. The Eurasian Customs Union: Friend or Foe of the EU?

Author:
Olga Shumylo-Tapiola
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The customs union formed by Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan in 2010— the largest in the world by territory—is becoming very real. Though hurdles remain, member states are eliminating non-tariff barriers to trade within the union, moving toward a common external tariff, and fine-tuning a joint customs code. As the customs union's influence on the world stage and in Europe's neighborhood is likely to increase, the European Union (EU) should attempt to understand the project and find ways to protect its own interests.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus