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1. Parliamentary oversight of the police and the EU accession process – a missing link in the fundamentals-first approach

Author:
Marija Ignjatijevic
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
BCSP Researcher Marija Ignjatijević analyses parliamentary oversight of the police in Serbia through the lens of the European integration process and offers recommendations on how to connect it to the negotiating Chapter 24 – Justice, Freedom and Security. Parliamentary oversight of police work represents a critical measure in strengthening the integrity and operational independence of the police. At the same time, these features of the police work are crucial in attaining benchmarks for negotiating Chapter 24 in Serbia’s EU accession process. Along with judiciary, functional and democratically governed police is a prerequisite for the rule of law and other fundamental principles of the EU accession process. Chapter 24 occupies an even more important position within the revised methodology for accession negotiations, since benchmarks in the Cluster 1 (Fundamentals) are a precondition for advancements in all the other clusters. In the Justice, Freedom, and Security field (Chapter 24), the National Assembly plays an important role, foremost by passing and amending the laws through which domestic legislation harmonizes with the regulations of the European Union. The action plan for the Chapter 24 recognizes the role of the National Assembly in achieving benchmarks in this area, most often precisely through changes in the normative framework, i.e. adoption of new or changes to old legal regulations and confirmation of international agreements. However, the role of the National Assembly should be more significant in practice, although this cannot be precisely expressed through technical measures and activities. Defining obligations in the Action Plan might even produce a counter effect and further boost the “tick the box” approach, with the National Assembly captured by the ruling party proficient in simulating its democratic features. The primarily technical action plan cannot bind the National Assembly to effectively oversee the police since the problem is political – there is a lack of political will to control the security sector, the level of democratic culture is low, and the National Assembly is captured by the ruling party. It is, therefore, necessary to explore mechanisms which could make a clear bond between the political criteria which are part of the Fundamentals cluster, such as the functioning democratic institutions, and concrete measures from the action plans, like the ones aimed at strengthening police integrity. Parliamentary oversight of the police is one such connector since it is a vital democratic feature which can boost police integrity and reforms, essential Chapter 24 criteria and prerequisite for other elements of the Fundamentals cluster.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Governance, European Union, and Police
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

2. The Wider Balkan Region at the Crossroads of a New Regional Energy Matrix

Author:
Sergiu Mitrescu and Vuk Vuksanovic
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The study analyzes the challenges faced by the Balkan region from an energy perspective and describes the struggle of different actors in the energy field, manifested especially through the emergence of new transport networks. The various interconnections built between the states in the region bring hope that this area will be fully integrated into the European gas network in the coming years. The complicated history of the Balkans and the relationship with Russia, still a very present actor in the region, especially from an energy point of view, creates a complex context. The study also takes into account the places that Serbia and Romania occupy in the European energy architecture, the bilateral cooperation possibilities, the degree of dependence on gas from Russia. The study provides an opportunity to reflect on the systemic changes currently underway in the energy field and their deep geopolitical implications. The Black Sea has acquired a new regional importance, not only because of the security context created by the war in Ukraine, but also because of the change that may take place following gas discoveries in Romania’s exclusive economic zone, something that could turn the country into an important regional exporter.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Gas
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Balkans

3. Leaving Stabilocracy Behind – Rethinking the French Approach to the Western Balkans

Author:
Luka Steric
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In this paper, BCSP researcher Luka Steric calls for the U-turn in the French and EU approach to the Western Balkans, calling for the end of support for stabilocracy. The spring elections have resulted in regime continuity in both France and Serbia. President Macron has secured the second term with a convincing victory in the second round against the archrival Marine Le Pen. Simultaneously, President Vucic has stroke another landslide victory in the first round of the elections, with his Progressive Party holding on to power although losing absolute majority in the Parliament for the first time since 2014. However, the political landscape has changed radically since their previous victories five years ago. The war in Ukraine has shifted the focus of the European Union toward geopolitics, pushing the Western Balkans, seemingly forgotten, back on the European agenda. The threats of instability and the rising influence of third powers in the region have rung the alarm in the new global context, opening the floor for the discussion on how to revamp the European strategy which has been largely inadequate for the past decade. In contrast to previous periods in which France had a more passive approach and appeared mostly indifferent to the developments in the Western Balkans, during the first term of Macron’s presidency the official Paris has retaken a major role on the regional stage. As part of his ambition to become the political leader of Europe, Macron has launched several initiatives attempting to modify the European enlargement policy. Based on the consequences of these initiatives, we can conclude that the goal was to stop the enlargement process for a foreseeable future, substituting it with an economic and political presence that would ensure the stability of the region within the European sphere of influence. For this purpose, Macron was more than ready to collaborate with autocratic regimes such as the one in Serbia which he believed to be crucial for keeping the Western Balkans relatively stable. This strategy has contributed to the region steadily becoming both less secure and less democratic, eroding the once unquestionable European credibility and influence. The tectonic shifts we are witnessing on the European continent should be a wake-up call to critically evaluate and rethink the French policy in the Western Balkans, including a U-turn in the relationship with the current regime in Belgrade.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Balkans

4. Rethinking the Dutch position towards the Western Balkans in the new security environment in Europe

Author:
Arlinda Rrustemi, Luka Steric, and Marko Drajic
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The main goal of this paper is to present lessons learned, and present policy recommendations regarding the EU integration policy in Western Balkans given the recent events in 2022. In addition, a deeper understanding of the Dutch foreign and security policy is also provided, since the Netherlands has rejected plans for the EU’s further expansion. The year 2022 brought many political, legal, and security changes to Europe. Most importantly, events which had been considered unthinkable for decades have occurred. On February 24th, Russia commenced a fullscale military invasion of Ukraine, conducting attacks that have caused 7,061civilian deaths, while some sources report up 21,000 deaths only in Mariupol, indiscriminate attacks in violation of the laws of war that may amount to war crimes, and more than five million refugees. The European response was unified and timely. A clear willingness to stand by the side of Ukraine has been shown and sanctions are enforced against Russia by all EU member states (MS), while providing aid in various forms. An uptick in polarization, populism and far right sentiment can be observed in Victor Orban’s success in the Hungarian April Elections and in Marine le Pen’s persisting into the second round of the French Presidential election. Not only the right political spectrum is gaining traction but also the left. The Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša has been defeated by a left wing party, the Freedom Movement, founded a year ago. In addition, European governments that are key to stability and peace of the Western Balkans region are experiencing drastic political changes. The new German government that succeeded Angela Merkel’s cabinet after one and a half decade is posing new foreign and security policy questions. Macron suggested an end to the enlargement agenda as we know it, proposing the political European community as an alternative. Tensions in terms of hate and acts of violence have been reported in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, raising further questions about the future of the Western Balkans in Europe. War in the continent posed a threat to the credibility and legitimacy of the European project. It questions European values and is an existential threat to the integration process, and European security. Ursula von der Leyen offered a speedy response to Ukraine’s bid to join the European Union, for which Ukraine applied in times of conflict. This is the first time in history that a nation during conflict applies for EU membership. The Ukrainian application and the war have resulted in many uncertainties for Europe. This raises questions surrounding the accession processes of other countries in the Western Balkans region, such as Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. An analysis of the EU integration policy in the Western Balkans region is therefore crucial given the recent events. Progress towards EU integration has varied among countries in the Western Balkans region. The closest to the EU integration are Montenegro and Serbia with many chapters open. North Macedonia and Albania are waiting to start formal negotiations. Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are farthest removed due to their internally and externally driven fragilities. The main goal of the report is to question the current approach while providing a fresh perspective on the EU’s integration policy, given the recent security and political events. In addition, a deeper understanding of the Dutch foreign and security policy is also provided, since the Netherlands has rejected plans for the EU’s further expansion. The following sections outline Dutch foreign policy, followed by recent political, security and legal developments in the Western Balkans region. The final section outlines lessons learned, and present policy recommendations regarding the EU integration policy in Western Balkans given the recent events in 2022.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Integration
Political Geography:
Europe