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1. Energy investment in a time of inflation

Author:
Charles Lichfield and Joseph Webster
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
High rates of inflation across the world are forcing central banks to reluctantly tighten monetary policy despite accompanying recession risks. Moreover, restricted credit access could jeopardize energy investments, particularly for capital-intensive clean energy projects, potentially rendering the world more vulnera­ble energy to price shocks, which are a significant contributor to the current crisis. This paper briefly considers the macroeconomic drivers of inflation in late 2022, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and uncertainties around energy supply, supply-chain resets, and lingering COVID-19 disruptions, before examining the persistent energy underinvestment of the past decade and how this has left markets exposed to varying degrees. As such, this paper also considers how private capital can accelerate cleaner energy adoption, suited to different markets’ unique conditions and needs. Bor­rowing costs will rise, but this doesn’t have to bring the transition to a standstill. With the Great Moderation of low volatility, interest rates, and inflation perhaps a relic of the past, assets offering inflation protection, such as infrastructure, may become increas­ingly attractive to investors. There is a fear that global inflation will sharply curtail energy investment into emerging markets. The fear is justified. Higher interest rates in developed markets mean higher rates of return which will lure emerging markets investors back to the US and Europe. Still, it’s not all bad news for emerging markets. Quasi-state actors like Pension and Sovereign Welfare funds are interested in very long term, high-yield projects—two criteria to which emerging market energy infrastructure correspond. Disruptions to interest rates and inflation, triggered in part by energy underinvestment, will cause disparate impacts in different markets. Inflation is not, perhaps, everywhere and always a mone­tary phenomenon. Energy investment faltered from 2014 to 2020, despite low interest rates. Meanwhile, aggre­gate supply shocks—first due to COVID, then from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine—have pressured energy production and prices, raising inflation and necessitating interest rate hikes. The consequences of persistent energy underinvest­ment are now becoming apparent. The need for new energy infrastructure cannot be met without private investment. This was the case when infla­tion was lower; it is even more important now.
Topic:
Environment, Markets, Oil, Governance, Gas, Economy, Investment, Inflation, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Securing the energy transition against cyber threats

Author:
Atlantic Council Task Force on Cybersecurity and the Energy Transition
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As the US energy sector’s reliance on digitalization grows, its vulnerability to cyberattacks also increases. To better understand current and future threats, the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center convened the Atlantic Council Task Force on Cybersecurity and the Energy Transition to develop a cybersecurity framework designed to protect US energy infrastructure—and by extension, national security—against cyberattacks. Former Secretary of the US Department of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff and former General Wesley Clark served as co-chairmen of the task force, which produced this report, “Securing the Energy Transition against Cyber Threats.” The task force found that existing efforts to strengthen cybersecurity are insufficient to meet the demands the energy transition will bring. The fragmented, sometimes rivalrous set of institutions regulating and coordinating current cyber defenses leaves many gaps, ambiguities, and weak links. This report recommends a suite of key actions that government can take to shore up the US energy sector against future cyber threats.
Topic:
Environment, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. The data divide: How emerging technology and its stakeholders can influence the fourth industrial revolution

Author:
Joseph T. Bonivel Jr. and Solomon Wise
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is highlighted by the interconnection of devices and sensors to the internet. The computing and communication capabilities of these devices allow for roughly 2.5 quintillion byes of data to be produced, stored, and analyzed daily. For example, every second, an exponential amount of healthcare data is generated and mined for valuable insights. Today, approximately 30% of the world’s data volume is being generated by the healthcare industry. By 2025, the compound annual growth rate of data for healthcare will reach 36%. This data is fed into machine learning and artificial intelligence models that have strong impacts on multiple healthcare domains that have the potential to impact the socioeconomic statuses of billions of people across the world. Those entities that have functional access to data capital have more options than those that do not. The data divide is the gap that exists between individuals who have access, agency, and control with respect to data and can reap the most benefits from data driven technologies, and those who do not. The data divide can only be reduced if the there is optimization in the data process, monitoring and evaluation of the policies and programs from major stakeholders, and alignment of public private partnerships for social good.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Communications, Innovation, Data, and Fourth Industrial Revolution
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. China’s surveillance ecosystem and the global spread of its tools

Author:
Bulelani Jili
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This paper seeks to offer insights into how China’s domestic surveillance market and cyber capability ecosystem operate, especially given the limited number of systematic studies that have analyzed its industry objectives. For the Chinese government, investment in surveillance technologies advances both its ambitions of becoming a global technology leader as well as its means of domestic social control. These developments also foster further collaboration between state security actors and private tech firms. Accordingly, the tech firms that support state cyber capabilities range from small cyber research start-ups to leading global tech enterprises. The state promotes surveillance technology and practices abroad through diplomatic exchanges, law enforcement cooperation, and training programs. These efforts encourage the dissemination of surveillance devices, but also support the government’s goals concerning international norm-making in multilateral and regional institutions. The proliferation of Chinese surveillance technology and cyber tools and the associated linkages between both state and private Chinese entities with those in other states, especially in the Global South, is a valuable component of Chinese state efforts to expand and strengthen their political and economic influence worldwide. Although individual governments purchasing Chinese digital tools have their local ambitions in mind, Beijing’s export and promotion of domestic surveillance technologies shape the adoption of these tools in the Global South. As such, investigating how Chinese actors leverage demand factors for their own aims, does not undercut the ability of other countries to detect and determine outcomes. Rather it demonstrates an interplay between Chinese state strategy and local political environments. This paper specifically focuses on key features in China’s surveillance ecosystem, while the companion to this report will focus on the key ‘pull factors’ from African countries and their significance for US interests.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Surveillance, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Global Focus

5. The reverse cascade: Enforcing security on the global IoT supply chain

Author:
Nathaniel Kim, Trey Herr, and Bruce Schneier
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to the increasing convergence of the physical and digital worlds. Hundreds of “things” are being connected to the Internet and each other, with more than fifty billion devices expected to be connected by 2030. 1 These devices vary from Internet-connected power-generation equipment to wearable health trackers and smart home appliances, and generally offer some combination of new functionality, greater convenience, or cost savings to users. The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to the increasing convergence of the physical and digital worlds. Hundreds of “things” are being connected to the Internet and each other, with more than fifty billion devices expected to be connected by 2030. 1 These devices vary from Internet-connected power-generation equipment to wearable health trackers and smart home appliances, and generally offer some combination of new functionality, greater convenience, or cost savings to users.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Internet, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Downstream oil theft: Countermeasures and good practices

Author:
David Soud, Ian M. Ralby, and Rohini Ralby
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Downstream oil theft has become a global problem. Since most of the world’s energy systems still rely on oil, fuel smugglers are nearly always able to find markets for their goods. Moreover, since oil is not inherently illegal, it is generally an easy product to move, buy, and sell. Profits from oil theft are frequently used to fund terrorism and other illegal activities. The new Atlantic Council Global Energy Report by Dr. David Soud, Downstream Oil Theft: Countermeasures and Good Practices, provides an in-depth look at how governments—from militaries to law enforcement officials—along with other stakeholders can anticipate and intercept instances of downstream oil theft. The report offers a range of methods to counter oil theft, which range from fuel marking and other technologies to transnational
Topic:
Security, Crime, Energy Policy, Environment, Governance, Law Enforcement, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. A framework for an open, trusted, and resilient 5G global telecommunications network

Author:
John T. Watts
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Recent events have seen an acceleration in the rise of reemerging great powers. This has had a profound impact on global economic, technological, and political assumptions and has created new technological realities. The potential impact and implications of artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology innovation, and the dark sides of social media have raised new concerns for social norms. No issue is more emblematic of the competition between liberal, free-market nations and authoritarian command-economy principles than the evolution of fifth-generation (5G) telecommunications. Generational shifts between cellular telecommunications networks have profound implications for national and global economies. As data become increasingly central to every aspect of a modern economy, the shift to the next generation of cellular networks will be of even greater significance. The Chinese government identified the importance of this transition and has, for years, been aggressively investing around the world to be the purveyor of 5G infrastructure that will carry that data in the coming decades. Chinese-backed firms are currently better positioned to exploit the vast opportunity that 5G represents more effectively than corporations within free markets, for several reasons. The most significant is the high infrastructure cost of legacy cellular models and uncertain consumer demand in the short term. Capital costs are driven predominately by the technical requirements of 5G, which—in return for far higher speeds and ultra-low latency—require new hardware to be installed in many more locations than previous networks. Moreover, the legacy infrastructure model relied on proprietary and incompatible hardware components that are best suited to large, single-manufacture companies that can provide comprehensive end-to-end solutions. While consumer demand is predicted to be high, businesses are cautious in deploying such large amounts of money for unproven speculative demand. The lack of a concrete user base creates an opening that vertically integrated Chinese companies, heavily backed by the state, are exploiting by deploying the 5G technology and services at a discount of about 25 percent, along with loss-leading financing terms. Given that end-to-end network solutions can cost $10–100 billion, or more, 25-percent discounts have a major impact. While the 25-percent discount is financially enticing, the longer-term consequences are often hidden, and can include vulnerability to foreign espionage, economic leverage, and forced compliance to conditions underpinned by authoritarian principles. For the Chinese government, the financial cost is a small investment in return for potential control of the world’s data backbone for the next several decades. The reality is that questions revolving around security, as defined from the perspective of traditional “cyber” or “network security,” are ancillary to the critical challenge. If a nation builds a telecommunications network with equipment supplied from Chinese tech giants such as Huawei or ZTE, those networks will inherently be subject to Chinese laws that require compliance with many principles’ anathema to free-market, liberal views. Moreover, these networks, by design, must be managed and maintained by large services organizations, likely staffed by a vast workforce of Chinese citizens, who also must comply with Chinese law and can provide local human intelligence back to the Chinese state. These are terms that countries should not have to accept, and to which their citizens should not be involuntarily subjected. An open, innovative, safe, and reliable alternative is needed, so that people have a realistic option that allows them to freely communicate and consume information. 5G is emblematic of the competition between the new authoritarianism and free-market, liberal principles. China has executed its plan well over the last five years by driving the standards discussion, developing the leading vertically integrated solution, deploying national export finance to subsidize their offerings, and building the largest and most effective services organization in the market. Free-market economies have spent far less on research and development (R&D), have only limited export finance options, rely on semiconductor dominance, deploy severely limited services organizations, and have no integrated national or international strategy. Few governments or companies were prepared for the level of sophistication of the product and export finance offering of the authoritarian-backed commercial players.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, and 5G
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Aviation cybersecurity: Scoping the challenge

Author:
Pete Cooper, Simon Handler, and Safa Shahwan Edwards
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In the past decade, the aviation industry has reaped the benefits of digitization. With the aircraft efficiency gains and enhancements to the passenger experience catalyzed by new technologies, we have to acknowledge the corresponding new risks, including social and technical vulnerabilities never before addressed. In 2017, the Atlantic Council released its ground-breaking report, Aviation Cybersecurity—Finding Lift, Minimizing Drag. The report raised awareness on the state of cybersecurity in the aviation industry, sparking public dialogue on the intersection of cybersecurity and aviation. This created a foundation for the aviation community to convene around protecting the traveling public. Since then, it has become evident that anticipating, identifying, and mitigating cyberspace vulnerabilities in aviation will require the buy-in of all stakeholders in this ecosystem. Two years on, Thales is honored to continue its support for the Atlantic Council and this crucial initiative that aims to map perspectives on cybersecurity across this diverse industry and highlight the growing need for collaboration across stakeholders. Ultimately, there is no silver bullet for aviation cybersecurity, and confronting cyber risk in aviation will require a global approach, working across safety, security, cybersecurity, and enterprise IT. This report and the accompanying global survey developed by the Atlantic Council will increase our holistic understanding of aviation cyber risk and drive meaningful engagement across the aviation community. This effort to broaden the community of stakeholders examining cybersecurity in aviation will increase our collective security, safety, and resilience. When it comes to the trust of travelers, we are all only as strong as those most vulnerable among us. It is only through mutual understanding and collaboration that we can continue to challenge one another, grow, and improve. I applaud the Atlantic Council for embracing this topic and am proud Thales has the chance to support this work.
Topic:
International Organization, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Innovation, and Aviation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Leading the free world: How America benefits

Author:
Paul D. Miller
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
What is “world order” and why should Americans care? Less than half of all Americans have a passport, and less than five percent travel internationally. Only 26 percent of US gross domestic product (GDP) comes from international trade. Since the end of the Cold War most Americans probably feel safe from foreign threats most of the time: they feel little sense of danger or threat from the world. Even the terrorist attacks of 2001 have receded into memory and increasingly feel like an aberration rather than a precedent. Americans may feel a sense of unease about the world, but we are confident that even the nation’s wars safely take place “over there,” not here at home. If the United States can afford to tune out much of the world because of its geography, wealth, and power, why should we care? Americans have been the unconscious beneficiaries of a world order that would not exist without them. Just as we take for granted electricity and indoor plumbing without thought to the wiring and piping that make them possible, so too we take for granted the peace, prosperity, and stability of our world without thought to the infrastructure of the free world. The free world exists because the most powerful states in the world are open societies: liberal capitalist democracies who largely see the world the same way and have worked together to keep the peace and build wealth. That order is now imperiled. The United States no longer enjoys an unquestioned advantage over its rivals, Russia and China, as it once did. North Korea and Iran threaten the United States with nuclear weapons and support for terrorism. Perhaps most threatening of all: rising nationalist and populist movements around the world, including in the United States, are undermining popular support for international cooperation, free trade, and collective security. This report is about the free world: what it is, why it is imperiled, why Americans should care, and what we can do about it. Some skeptics have criticized the international order. President Donald Trump regularly criticizes “globalism,” and many Americans seem inclined to believe that the United States is losing its sovereignty and that the world is taking advantage of America’s generosity. We respectfully disagree. The free world, and American leadership of it, is good for America and good for the world. It helps keep us safe and give us opportunity. Far from eroding America’s sovereignty, it is a tool of American influence. Most importantly, the aspirations of the free world are just. It is a system of ordered liberty among nations, a tool or mechanism for allowing nations and individuals to flourish in freedom and safety. Investing in the free world is an investment in our values and our common values.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

10. What do we know about cyber escalation? Observations from simulations and surveys

Author:
Benjamin Jensen and Brandon Valeriano
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Do cyber operations alter how states respond to international crises in a way that creates incentives for decision makers to cross the Rubicon and use military force to settle disputes? This question is central to current cyber strategy debates and the idea of persistent engagement and defending forward in cyberspace. The answer is surprising: no. Based on the evidence, cyber operations offer a valuable escalatory offramp.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. NATO at Seventy: Filling NATO’s Critical Defense-Capability Gaps

Author:
Wolfgang Schroeder
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As a young, single-seat fighter pilot based in Germany in the Royal Air Force of the early 1980s, I enjoyed a degree of certainty about my role in life. The world was, to all intents and purposes, a bi-polar place. We knew exactly from where our threat emanated and, indeed, had comprehensive standing plans for dealing with it. In the event of an attack by the Warsaw Pact on NATO’s eastern flank, we had pre-designated areas in which we would interdict any enemy military force heading westwards. We had pre-planned missions for systematically taking down all elements of Soviet air power — be it through suppression of enemy air defense sensors and surfaceto-air systems or denial of his airfields’ operating surfaces. In the event that the conflict escalated too rapidly, or went too far, we even had plans to resort to the ultimate sanction of the pre-planned and graduated employment of tactical nuclear weapons. Our plans, and our skills, were tested on a frequent and regular basis. It was no rare experience to be woken by a siren in the middle of the night to be called to duty. Our response time was measured, as was the ability to demonstrate our preparedness to brief our wartime missions, arm our aircraft, and prove our abilities to be airborne within the allocated time period. The results of these exercises—known as NATO Tactical Evaluations (TacEvals)—were equally rigorous in the Land and Maritime domains. Their results were widely shared within Alliance circles. Achieving a “one” for a TacEval result was every commanding officer’s goal
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. Transatlantic Air Power and What to Do Now: Key to Deterrence, Key to Collective Defense

Author:
Frank Gorenc
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As the world enters an era of great-power competition, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faces a renewed challenge from an old adversary. A Europe whole, free, and at peace is now at risk as Russian aggression challenges the traditional rules-based world order. Russia’s activities in and against Ukraine and Georgia, rampant intrusion on Western democratic processes and political discourse, blatant assassination attempts on NATO soil, support for rogue regimes in Syria and Iran, and military deployments and force accumulation in Kaliningrad and Crimea, as well as in the Sea of Azov, demonstrate that the threat is as real and compelling as it ever was.
Topic:
International Affairs, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Dealing with the Offshore Economy

Author:
Alan Riley
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Given that offshore tax havens are largely located in small, independent states or self-governing territories, it could be assumed that they have little connection to OECD states and major financial centers such as London and New York. This is not the case. The so-called tax havens are in fact part of a much larger network of financial and corporate services that depends on lawyers, accountants, and bankers located in major Western cities. Only one part of the havens’ business actually involves providing lower tax rates to individual foreign account holders
Topic:
International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Navigating the Energy Transition

Author:
David Koranyi
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As energy markets and technologies rapidly change, international oil companies (IOCs) are facing a set of interconnected challenges that will fundamentally affect their business models. From changes in the supply and demand picture, to shifts in how energy is produced and consumed, to public pressure to decrease greenhouse gas footprints, companies have a wide range of issues to consider as they decide how to prepare for an unpredictable future. In a new issue brief, “Navigating the Energy Transition: International Oil Company Diversification Strategies,” Global Energy Center Senior Fellow David Koranyi provides a macro picture of select IOC’s strategic (re)thinking and explores some of the strategies IOCs have undertaken to diversify their portfolios and prepare for the unfolding energy transition.
Topic:
Energy Policy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Beyond Control: Iran and its Opponents Locked in a Lopsided Confrontation

Author:
Borzou Daragahi
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For much of its four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been blessed with a weak political opposition. While Iran has faced competent and powerful foreign enemies—such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the United States, and Israel—its Iranian political challengers, both domestically and abroad, have been largely fragmented, unrealistic in their aims, and sometimes as authoritarian as the regime. But, though few credible Iran watchers argue that opposition groups and figures arrayed against Tehran’s establishment pose a serious threat, Iran treats them as if they are mortal dangers to the regime. This paper attempts to sketch out the landscape of the various major political opposition groups, and begin to grapple with the question of why Iran perceives them as such a challenge
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. The Melians’ Revenge: How Small, Frontline, European States Can Employ Emerging Technology to Defend Against Russia

Author:
T. X. Hammes
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Perhaps the most famous quote from Thucydides is “the strong do what they can, the weak suffer what they must.”1 For thousands of years, it has been accepted that the weak must comply or face the fate of the Melians. Today, the technology of the Fourth Industrial Revolution may be revising that truth. It is creating a wide range of small, smart, cheap weapons that can provide small states combat power previously reserved to major powers
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. European Energy Security and Transatlantic Cooperation: A Current Assessment

Author:
Richard L. Morningstar
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This brief emerged from discussions during an Atlantic Council Global Energy Center roundtable on European energy security held in Brussels on March 27, 2019, as well as other events and individual meetings with government officials, private sector executives, and leading academics in the global energy sector. The collective dialogues and key takeaways are reflected in this brief. Because the conversations took place under the Chatham House Rule, the information will not be attributed to any specific individual. The brief will provide a current assessment of EU energy security focusing on the role of gas markets, while future briefs in the European Energy Security series will take a closer look at other critical issues impacting European energy security. Following these briefs, a final report in 2020 will propose specific recommendations for the US and EU governments on how to address transatlantic energy security issues.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18. When the Friend of My Friends Is Not My Friend

Author:
Mark Katz
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
uring the Cold War, the Soviet Union posed a challenge to the United States throughout the entire world, including in the Middle East. Soviet activity in the Middle East, though, was also a challenge for many US allies in the region, and beyond. Soviet influence in the Middle East expanded during the 1950s and 1960s, in particular, as many in the Arab world became angry about US support for Israel, and as several pro-Western Arab governments were overthrown and replaced by anti-Western ones that actively sought Soviet support. Due to several factors, however, many of the gains made by the Soviets in the Middle East ended up being lost. These included: the defection of Gamal Abdel Nasser’s successor in Egypt, Anwar Sadat, from the Soviet to the US camp; Washington’s successful 1970s-era diplomacy in bringing about an Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement; genuine fear of the Soviet threat on the part of Saudi Arabia and other Arab monarchies; the 1979 Iranian Revolution, in which the downfall of a pro-Western regime did not lead to the rise of a pro-Soviet one, but to the rise of one that was both anti-American and anti-Soviet; and, finally, the collapse of both communism and the Soviet Union itself from 1989 to 1991
Topic:
International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. Beyond Control: Iran and its Opponents Locked in a Lopsided Confrontation

Author:
Borzou Daragahi
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For much of its four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been blessed with a weak political opposition. While Iran has faced competent and powerful foreign enemies—such as Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, the United States, and Israel—its Iranian political challengers, both domestically and abroad, have been largely fragmented, unrealistic in their aims, and sometimes as authoritarian as the regime. But, though few credible Iran watchers argue that opposition groups and figures arrayed against Tehran’s establishment pose a serious threat, Iran treats them as if they are mortal dangers to the regime. This paper attempts to sketch out the landscape of the various major political opposition groups, and begin to grapple with the question of why Iran perceives them as such a challenge.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. Transatlantic Air Power and What to Do Now: Key to Deterrence, Key to Collective Defense

Author:
Frank Gorenc
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As the world enters an era of great-power competition, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faces a renewed challenge from an old adversary. A Europe whole, free, and at peace is now at risk as Russian aggression challenges the traditional rules-based world order. Russia’s activities in and against Ukraine and Georgia, rampant intrusion on Western democratic processes and political discourse, blatant assassination attempts on NATO soil, support for rogue regimes in Syria and Iran, and military deployments and force accumulation in Kaliningrad and Crimea, as well as in the Sea of Azov, demonstrate that the threat is as real and compelling as it ever was
Topic:
International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

21. Navigating the Energy Transition

Author:
David Koranyi
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As energy markets and technologies rapidly change, international oil companies (IOCs) are facing a set of interconnected challenges that will fundamentally affect their business models. From changes in the supply and demand picture, to shifts in how energy is produced and consumed, to public pressure to decrease greenhouse gas footprints, companies have a wide range of issues to consider as they decide how to prepare for an unpredictable future. In a new issue brief, “Navigating the Energy Transition: International Oil Company Diversification Strategies,” Global Energy Center Senior Fellow David Koranyi provides a macro picture of select IOC’s strategic (re)thinking and explores some of the strategies IOCs have undertaken to diversify their portfolios and prepare for the unfolding energy transition.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

22. The New Angola: A Conversation with Foreign Minister Manuel Domingos Augusto

Author:
Atlantic Council
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
A twenty-five-year civil war, coupled with rapid oil-fueled growth, shaped Angola into a country ripe with contradictions. It is Sub-Saharan Africa’s third largest economy and the region’s second largest oil producer. However, many Angolans live on less than $2 a day and social indicators, from education to life expectancy, are low. When President João Lourenço was elected in 2017, many people rejoiced his promise of a “new Angola.” Since then, his government has taken swift action to fight “the cancer of corruption,” clean up the business environment, and diversify the economy, reducing the country’s overdependence on oil revenues. But to make meaningful progress, Angola needs to attract greater foreign investment in sectors beyond petroleum. Please join the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center on Monday, August 19, for a timely conversation with H.E. Manuel Domingos Augusto, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Angola, on the US-Angola partnership going forward.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. Priority Venezuela: The Global Reverberations of a Humanitarian Crisis

Author:
Atlantic Council
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As world leaders gather in New York, one crisis – Venezuela -- threatens to increasingly spread beyond its borders without renewed international attention. The Western Hemisphere’s largest man-made emergency is the result of years of Nicolás Maduro’s failed economic policies, cronyism, corruption, and systemic human rights violations. Now is the time to refocus and reaffirm the world’s attention to the global implications of Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Venezuela and Global Focus

24. Global Magnitsky Sanctions: Raising the Human Rights and Anti-Corruption Bar

Author:
Samantha Sultoon
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Economic sanctions have become a policy tool-of-choice for the US government. Yet sanctions and their potential pitfalls are often misunderstood. The Economic Sanctions Initiative (ESI) seeks to build a better understanding of the role sanctions can and cannot play in advancing policy objectives and of the impact of sanctions on the private sector, which bears many of the implementation costs.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. Permanent Deterrence: Enhancements to the US Military Presence in North Central Europe

Author:
Philip Breedlove
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In September 2018, the Atlantic Council established a Task Force on US Force Posture in Europe to assess the adequacy of current US deployments, with a focus on North Central Europe. The Task Force is co-chaired by General Philip Breedlove, former supreme allied commander Europe, and Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, former NATO deputy secretary general. A full report will be completed in January 2019. This paper is a summary of the task force’s conclusions and recommendations.
Topic:
International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

26. Global Magnitsky Sanctions: Raising the Human Rights and Anti-Corruption Bar

Author:
Samantha Sultoon
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Economic sanctions have become a policy tool-of-choice for the US government. Yet sanctions and their potential pitfalls are often misunderstood. The Economic Sanctions Initiative (ESI) seeks to build a better understanding of the role sanctions can and cannot play in advancing policy objectives and of the impact of sanctions on the private sector, which bears many of the implementation costs.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27. The Global Innovation Sweepstakes: A Quest to Win the Future

Author:
Atlantic Council
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Please join us on Tuesday, June 26 from 9:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. for a tour of the world’s most innovative places and a discussion on what today’s technology trends mean for the future security and prosperity of the United States. During this event, we will launch a new report: The Global Innovation Sweepstakes: A Quest to Win the Future. The Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, in partnership with Qualcomm, embarked on a global tour of technology hubs to determine which ones are at the cutting edges of tech-based innovation—and which are at risk of falling behind. Our researchers visited nearly a dozen countries and spoke with almost two hundred experts. Will China overtake the United States? Can Europe rise to the challenge? Why are small states often the most innovative? This new report seeks to answer these questions—and others raised by the unfolding technological revolution. It also provides policy recommendations for research and development, skills training, technology transfer, diversity, education, and more.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Science and Technology, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. State Department Reform report

Author:
Atlantic Council
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Atlantic Council's State Department Reform Report—written by a group of ten foreign policy experts—explores the critical subject areas of structure and process, personnel, budget, congressional relations, and USAID. The report serves as a foundation for reform efforts that will lead to the empowerment of the State Department at a time when a rapidly evolving global environment consistently poses new challenges and threats. The department's role is indeed unique and vital in the US national security apparatus; diplomacy based in continued and robust support for US interests and values is critical to favorable long-term outcomes, including a more secure and stable global environment.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

29. Agent of Influence: Should Russia’s RT Register as a Foreign Agent?

Author:
Elena Postnikova
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The US Congress enacted the Foreign Agents Registration Act of 1938 (FARA) to ensure that the American people were aware when foreign governments funded media sources; at the time, their concerns focused on the Nazi regime in Germany. Today, this issue has resurfaced with concerns about the Russian propaganda outlet RT (formerly Russia Today). RT broadcasts are reliably consistent with official statements of the Russian government, which is unsurprising, as it is 99 percent funded by the Kremlin. In Agent of Influence, author Elena Postnikova not only argues that RT should register with FARA but makes a legal case for it while laying out recommendations for policy makers. At a minimum, RT’s activities warrant a thorough investigation by the Department of Justice (DOJ). Strong evidence supports the conclusion that Russia’s RT is owned, controlled, and financed by the Russian state. RT advances Russia’s interests abroad and uses communication channels to influence US domestic and foreign policy. RT has not presented evidence to support that it is a bona fide media organization, which would be excluded from registration. If RT fails to respond to a DOJ inquiry or to present ample evidence that it should be exempt, an enforcement action should follow.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. Big Data: A Twenty-First Century Arms Race

Author:
Atlantic Council
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
We are living in a world awash in data. Accelerated interconnectivity, driven by the proliferation of internet-connected devices, has led to an explosion of data—big data. A race is now underway to develop new technologies and implement innovative methods that can handle the volume, variety, velocity, and veracity of big data and apply it smartly to provide decisive advantage and help solve major challenges facing companies and governments.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

31. Islam and Human Rights: Key Issues for Our Times

Author:
Geneive Abdo
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Islam and Human Rights: Key Issues for Our Times is a collection of essays edited by Geneive Abdo and authored by Elie Abouaoun, Harith Hasan Al-Qarawee, Moataz El Fegiery, Mohammad Fadel, Omar Iharchane, Driss Maghraoui, Imad Salamey, and Asma T. Uddin. This publication is part of the Hariri Center’s Islamic Law and Human Rights in the Middle East initiative. By presenting the reader with a range of contemporary thinking on the most pressing issues facing Muslims today, including questions of democracy, free expression, human rights, gender and minority rights, and the notions of legitimate governance, this volume reflects new thinking on these issues.
Topic:
International Relations and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Global Focus

32. The Free World

Author:
Daniel Fried
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Once again, authoritarians are challenging the world’s leading democracies, using twenty-first century versions of aggression, propaganda, and subversion. The very notion of a rules-based, democratic-leaning international order—the Free World—seems in doubt, questioned also by newly-emboldened nationalists on both sides of the Atlantic. In “The Free World,” Ambassador Dan Fried, who retired this year as the United States’ longest-serving diplomat, reminds us what the Free World achieved, where it has gone wrong, and what democratic forces can do to restore the momentum of ideas that still represent the best hope for American interests, democratic values, and the world.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

33. The Free World

Author:
Daniel Fried
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Once again, authoritarians are challenging the world’s leading democracies, using twenty-first century versions of aggression, propaganda, and subversion. The very notion of a rules-based, democratic-leaning international order—the Free World—seems in doubt, questioned also by newly-emboldened nationalists on both sides of the Atlantic. In “The Free World,” Ambassador Dan Fried, who retired this year as the United States’ longest-serving diplomat, reminds us what the Free World achieved, where it has gone wrong, and what democratic forces can do to restore the momentum of ideas that still represent the best hope for American interests, democratic values, and the world.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

34. Building a Better Future

Author:
Luis Cosenza
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
To many Americans, the difficult issues facing Central America’s Northern Triangle—El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras—may seem distant. But the future of the United States is tied to these countries as some of our closest neighbors. Geography alone demonstrates that their stability and prosperity is critical to our national interest.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35. The Outlook for Energy Under a Trump Administration Major Volatility Ahead

Author:
David L. Goldwyn
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Oil, gas, and renewable energy markets will face high levels of uncertainty and potentially extreme volatility under a Trump administration in 2017. Some of these uncertainties flow from questions about the new administration’s yet-undefined policies on energy production, trade, and climate policy. Others flow from the basket of national security risks that a new US President was destined to inherit. Yet it is Mr. Trump’s signaling of major shifts in US foreign policy priorities that may have the greatest near-term impact on energy supply and demand. The impact of these uncertainties, following two years of reduced oil and gas investment and low energy prices, may inhibit investment and sow the seeds of a potential oil and gas price shock by 2020, if not sooner.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Post Truth Politics
Political Geography:
America and Global Focus

36. The Outlook for Energy Under a Trump Administration Major Volatility Ahead

Author:
David L. Goldwyn
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Oil, gas, and renewable energy markets will face high levels of uncertainty and potentially extreme volatility under a Trump administration in 2017. Some of these uncertainties flow from questions about the new administration’s yet-undefined policies on energy production, trade, and climate policy. Others flow from the basket of national security risks that a new US President was destined to inherit. Yet it is Mr. Trump’s signaling of major shifts in US foreign policy priorities that may have the greatest near-term impact on energy supply and demand. The impact of these uncertainties, following two years of reduced oil and gas investment and low energy prices, may inhibit investment and sow the seeds of a potential oil and gas price shock by 2020, if not sooner.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Post Truth Politics
Political Geography:
America and Global Focus

37. Key Risks Companies Face in Petroleum Investment and Operations

Author:
Bud Coote and Karl V. Hopkins
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This report is a collaboration between Dentons and the Atlantic Council that provides analysis on the array of risks and uncertainties faced by international energy firms investing in and operating energy projects worldwide. It focuses on lessons learned from a variety of experiences and offers risk mitigation options.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

38. Downstream Oil Theft: Global Modalities, Trends, and Remedies

Author:
Ian M. Ralby
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This report is the first comprehensive study of the theft of refined oil products around the globe. It provides insight into the modalities and trends in oil theft, the culprits responsible, the stakeholders affected by illicit activities, and recommendations that could change the dynamics. It is divided into three parts.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Political Economy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Global Focus

39. Cyber and Deterrence: The Military-Civil Nexus in High-End Conflict

Author:
Franklin Kramer, Robert J Butler, and Catherine Lotrionte
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This paper analyzes cyber’s role in deterrence and defense—and specifically the military-civil nexus and the relationship between the Department of Defense (DoD), the civil agencies, and the key private operational cyber entities, in particular the Internet Service Providers (ISPs) and electric grid operators. The focus of the paper is on high-end conflict including actions by an advanced cyber adversary, whether state or nonstate, and not on the “day-to-day” intrusions and attacks as regularly occur and are generally dealt with by governmental agencies and the private sector without military involvement. High-end conflict can be expected to include attacks within the United States homeland as well as in forward theatres.
Topic:
Civil Society, International Security, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
America and Global Focus

40. Global Energy Debates and the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Ayla Gürel Moran, Harry G. Tzimitras, and Hubert Faustmann
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
On 16 November 2016 the PRIO Cyprus Centre (PCC), the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Cyprus (FES) and the Atlantic Council (AC) co-hosted a one-day conference entitled ‘Global Energy Debates and the East Mediterranean’. The conference, held in the UN Buffer Zone in Nicosia, was organised with a view to introducing the Cypriot public to the increasingly complex global energy terrain. Thus, the main focus of the deliberations was not the Eastern Mediterranean, but rather the broader energy picture surrounding the region. The international experts who attended the conference presented topics that concern some of the more salient broader debates, such as the link between energy and global warming as well as the energy relations of the European Union, which constitutes the largest potential market in the neighbourhood for the hydrocarbons of the Eastern Mediterranean. The latter included examination of three important cases to Europe’s east: Russia, Iran, and Turkey. East Mediterranean energy develop- ments and regional cooperation prospects were also discussed by a panel of experts from Cyprus, Egypt and Israel. This edited volume comprises contributions submitted by speakers based on their talks delivered at the conference.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, International Organization, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41. Foreign Policy for an Urban World: Global Governance and the Rise of Cities

Author:
Peter Engelke
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In the latest FutureScape issue brief from the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security's Strategic Foresight Initiative, author Peter Engelke discusses the long-term economic, environmental, and policy implications of urbanization. Entitled "Foreign Policy for an Urban World: Global Governance and the Rise of Cities," the brief examines how urbanization is hastening the global diffusion of power and how cities themselves are increasingly important nodes of power in global politics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Urbanization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. Risk Nexus: Overcome by cyber risks? Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures

Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In 2030, will the Internet and related information and communications technologies (ICTs) continue to drive global innovation and prosperity? Or will that bright promise be swamped by an unstable and insecure Internet, so overwhelmed by non-stop attacks that it has become an increasing drag on economic growth? The answers, as far as we can predict, are not promising and mean the difference in tens of trillions of dollars in global economic growth over the next fifteen years.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Communications, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

43. Renewable Energy’s Coming of Age: A Disruptive Technology?

Author:
Robert A. Manning
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The eyes of the world are on the United Nations Climate Conference, also known as COP21. Leaders from around the world are gathered in Paris in an effort to combat the effects of climate change. One of the best chances we have to mitigate these harmful effects are renewable technologies.
Topic:
Climate Change, Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Global Focus