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1. Withdrawal deadlines in war: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan

Author:
Paul D. Miller
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
At the outset of some of the most impactful wars in history, policymakers have assumed that the duration of conflict would be brief. Unfortunately, their assumptions were often wrong, as may wars like those in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan only grew more complicated with the passage of time. However, at least in these three cases, the reality of prolonged stalemate did not stop policymakers from setting withdrawal deadlines to assuage public anxieties and improve military performance. The pressures contributing to these consistent decisions across time are still relevant now. Therefore, as the United States currently seeks to deter great-power rivals and rogue regimes while combating terrorism, it is as important as ever to understand the roles and potential outcomes of withdrawal deadlines in war. In this new Atlantic Council report, Withdrawal Deadlines In War: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, Dr. Paul D. Miller examines the effect of withdrawal timetables on public opinion, military success, and policymakers’ goals across the three titular case studies. He finds that “Withdrawal timelines do not achieve the political benefits that policymakers desire, but they do incur the risks policymakers rightly fear.” In the face of prolonged and difficult military challenges, withdrawal deadlines can exacerbate outcomes at crucial moments, and thus policymakers must tread carefully.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, History, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, East Asia, and United States of America

2. Is NATO Set to Go on Standby?

Author:
Karl-Heinz Kamp
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
While the withdrawal of all combat forces from Afghanistan by the end of 2014 will be welcomed in most NATO capitals, it raises stark questions for the future of the Atlantic Alliance. Can it justify its existence without a direct threat to the security of its members? Is it enough for NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen to state that the Alliance has to evolve from “deployed NATO to prepared NATO,” without answering the question: prepared for what? Or will NATO have to accept that it is now less relevant, placing itself in standby mode to hibernate until it is reawakened by a new mission inside or outside Europe?
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, and North America

3. U.S. European Command and NATO'S Strategic Concept: Post-Afghanistan and Beyond

Author:
Harlan Ullman
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Regardless of how the conflict in Afghanistan (along with NATO's role, presence, and draw down) is resolved, one consequence will be to increase the importance of U.S. European Command (EUCOM) both in Europe and for the entire transatlantic community. Whether Operation Enduring Freedom and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) produce a stunning victory in which Afghanistan emerges as a stable state under the rule of law with a viable government or a rocky withdrawal in the midst of continuing violence with no clear solution in sight, NATO nations will have long tired of that war. Fortunately, the Lisbon Summit with a 2014 end date has eased domestic political pressures over Afghanistan. However, that relief is by no means permanent.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Reform
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Europe

4. Learning by Doing: The Pakistan Army's Experience with Counterinsurgency

Author:
Shuja Nawaz
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Despite having entered the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in force to support the coalition invasion of Afghanistan under Operation Enduring Freedom, the Pakistan Army did not undertake real counterinsurgency operations till much after 2001. Most of its early operations centered on the conventional use of dominating force against irregular opponents in this rugged region. It was hampered as much by lack of training and equipment as it was by its outmoded approaches to fighting in the frontier region. Gradually, its officers began learning by doing, and the Swat operation in 2008 probably marked the turning point in the doctrinal shift to serious counterinsurgency (COIN) operations, regardless of the fact that the army called it Low Intensity Conflict (LIC).
Topic:
Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia