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11. Nicaragua on the Brink–of What?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On November 4, Nicaraguans will go to the polls to select a president, vice president, and all sixty-six members of their unicameral congress–an event that on its own merits would hardly deserve much attention on the part of foreign observers. But the drama unfolding in that tiny country is characteristic of many small (and not so small) Latin American countries today: the inability of democracy alone to address effectively some of the fundamental problems of society. Nicaragua also provides some interesting insight into the peculiar pathologies that afflict postrevolutionary states, and as such may provide some light on what we can expect in post-Castro Cuba and even, eventually, in post—Chávez Venezuela.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Cuba, Latin America, and Nicaragua

12. Argentina Votes–but for What?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On Sunday, October 14, Argentines went to the polls to culminate what must surely have been the most ideological, hard-fought, and potentially decisive legislative election in their country’s history. At stake were all seventy-two seats in Argentina’s senate (chosen for the first time by popular vote[1]) and half of those in the Chamber of Deputies. What made the exercise particularly fraught with political significance was the fact that—coming as it did in the third year of a deep recession—the outcome was bound to be unfavorable to President Fernando de la Rúa, now midway through his four-year term. Given the parlous economic indicators—a near record 16 percent unemployment, laggard or negative economic growth for many months, drastic cuts in social spending with apparently more to come—the fact that the opposition Peronist Party won control of the senate and a plurality in the lower house can hardly be considered a surprise. But more serious still was the fact that, with few exceptions, candidates from the president’s own Radical Civic Union (and its coalition partner) ran against him with equal, if not greater, zeal. To the extent that the election was a plebiscite on de la Rúa’s stewardship, the vast majority voted “no.” What it voted for, however, is far from clear.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

13. Latin America and the Second Clinton Administration

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Presidents of the United States are elected to govern the American people, not the Latin American republics. Consequently, one should be neither surprised nor particularly troubled by the fact that many of our chief executives have failed to elicit much enthusiasm south of the border. Indeed, given the genuine differences of national self-interest, we would have ample reason to worry were it otherwise. Even so, one cannot help noticing how very unpopular the first Clinton administration has been in Latin America and with what trepidation most of the republics face the prospects of a second four years.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Bill Clinton
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

14. Time to End the Certification Circus

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
04-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
More than a decade ago, the U.S. Congress established a procedure whereby each year the president must “certify” that a given country is cooperating with us in the eradication of drug production and trafficking. Governments that lag behind, show little enthusiasm for our crusade, or are found colluding with narco-lords are subject to sanctions. Those “decertified” are denied foreign assistance, as well as U.S. votes for loans at the international financial institutions. Such countries–or, rather, our investors in their countries–also become ineligible for premiums from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Narcotics Trafficking, and Drugs
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

15. Brazil: The Twisted Path to Reform

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
05-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Although Mexico is, without doubt, the most important Latin American country for the United States, by any standard Brazil should rank close behind. It represents our second largest export market in the region and has become the second largest venue of U.S. investment there. More to the point, in many ways, Brazil is South America, in the sense that its economy is larger than that of all its neighbors combined. In many ways, it is a trendsetter for an entire continent. The success or failure of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s reform program will decisively shape the future of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay and influence strongly developments in Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, and Reform
Political Geography:
Brazil, Latin America, and United States of America

16. Arms Sales: An Old Issue Revisited

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
06-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Is the United States on the verge of pushing the major Latin American countries into a new arms race? Time seems to think so, to judge by a long article in the April 14 issue. Subtitled “the inside story of how the Pentagon and big defense contractors got the President to open the way for weapons sales to Latin America,” Time claims to provide the background to the Clinton administration’s current review of arms transfer policy. In so doing, the article revives an old controversy, namely, what role the United States plays (or should play) in the acquisition (or denial) of expensive military hardware, particularly to countries that lie within its own sphere of influence and, in the opinion of arms control experts, humanitarians, and journalists, “don’t need weapons at all.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:
Latin America

17. Mexico’s Midterm Elections: A Major Turning Point?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
07-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On July 6, Mexicans will go to the polls to elect a new Chamber of Deputies, renew a quarter of the Senate, and choose governors and legislators in six states. They will also have the opportunity to elect–for the first time–the governor of Mexico City, a position that, until now, has been appointive rather than elected. These races amount to both a midterm referendum on the stewardship of President Ernesto Zedillo and a crucial test of his ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Elections, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

18. Argentina: Another Round at the Polls

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
10-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
This month President Clinton visits Argentina, a major South American country that in recent years has become one of our most valued and trusted Latin allies. His presence there will underscore the special relationship that President Carlos Sal Menem has forged with the United States, a relationship that is a mirror image of Argentina’s historic antagonism toward Washington and all its works. Clinton’s presence will also highlight Argentina’s significant victories in the economic field–in the war against inflation, in the struggle to reestablish creditworthiness, and, above all, in its efforts to attract significant new foreign investment from Western Europe, Japan, and the United States. The visit precedes by about ten days an important midterm election, which in all probability will determine the political lineup for that country’s 1999 presidential election. In this regard, the most important development has been the creation of a multiparty coalition, the Alliance, which will be running joint lists against the candidates of Menem’s own Peronist Party. If the Peronists hold their own on October 26, Menem will be tempted to make a bid for an unprecedented third term. If they are soundly defeated, the struggle for succession within Peronism will begin the morning after. But a victory for the Alliance by no means clearly points the way for the opposition, which is beset by profound divisions of its own. This vagueness makes these elections a particularly interesting lens through which to view Argentina’s continuing evolution.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

19. Who’s Afraid of Big Bad Brazil?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On his trip to South America last month, President Clinton made quite a splash in Brazil. After starting off badly–dodging a torrent of manure thrown at his motorcade–he ended the week with the local media singing his praises. The secret of his success? The president (a quick study if there ever was one) immediately grasped that the best way to get along with Brazilians was to repeat back to them–with redoubled enthusiasm–what they told him about themselves. Thus, by the time Clinton had been in the country for thirty-six hours, he was expressing his conviction that Brazil, together with the United States, would lead the hemisphere in the twenty-first century. He also went out of his way to insist on his support for Mercosur, a subregional trade agreement-cum-political alliance of whose existence Clinton was probably only peripherally aware before his trip. In so doing, he seemed to be writing off an entire continent to the Brazilian sphere of influence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Politics, and Reform
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and United States of America