Adapting Sahelian force structures to lighter, more mobile, and integrated units will better support the population-centric COIN practices needed to reverse the escalating trajectory of violent extremist attacks.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Counterinsurgency, and Conflict
The rise of farmer-herder violence in Africa is more pernicious than fatality figures alone since it is often amplified by the emotionally potent issues of ethnicity, religion, culture, and land.
Topic:
Agriculture, Religion, Culture, Ethnicity, Conflict, Land, and Farming
Community-based security groups are emerging in African cities in response to rising crime and overstretched police forces. Experience from Abidjan shows that collaboration with the police, avoiding coercive tactics, and retaining citizen oversight councils are key to the effectiveness of these groups.
Topic:
Civil Society, Crime, Urban, Police, and Community Engagement
Militant Islamist groups in Africa set a record pace of activity in 2019, reflecting a doubling of militant Islamist activity from 2013. Expanded activity in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin underscores diversification of threat from Somalia.
Topic:
United Nations, Violent Extremism, ISIS, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Mozambique, Somalia, Sahel, and Lake Chad Basin
Libya’s civil war has become an increasingly competitive geostrategic struggle. A UN-brokered settlement supported by non-aligned states is the most viable means for a stable de-escalation, enabling Libya to regain its sovereignty.
Composed of distinct operational entities, the militant Islamist group coalition Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen serves the role of obscuring the operations of its component parts in the Sahel, thereby inhibiting a more robust response.
Topic:
Terrorism, Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, and Militant Islam
The Sahel has experienced the most rapid increase in militant Islamist group activity of any region in Africa in recent years. Violent events involving extremist groups in the region have doubled every year since 2015. In 2019, there have been more than 700 such violent episodes (see Figure 1). Fatalities linked to these events have increased from 225 to 2,000 during the same period. This surge in violence has uprooted more than 900,000 people, including 500,000 in Burkina Faso in 2019 alone.
Three groups, the Macina Liberation Front (FLM),1 the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS),2 and Ansaroul Islam,3 are responsible for roughly two-thirds of the extremist violence in the central Sahel.4 Their attacks are largely concentrated in central Mali, northern and eastern Burkina Faso, and western Niger (see Figure 2). Multiple security and development responses have been deployed to address this crisis. While some progress has been realized, the continued escalation of extremist violence underscores that more needs to be done.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Regional Cooperation, and Violent Extremism
Africa’s armed forces are in transition from an independence-era model to one more suited to today’s conflicts and threats. They are increasingly called upon to engage in preventive action, resolve domestic security crises, combat transnational threats, and protect the progression toward more democratic governance. Understanding how African security sector actors’ perceptions may be shifting in light of these changes can provide insights to improving their effectiveness.
This study, involving 742 African security sector professionals from 37 countries, assesses differences in the attitudes, motivations, and values of the emerging generation of African security sector professionals. Understanding these differences may raise awareness, provide a basis for reform, and create an impetus for improving the citizen-security actor relationship.
Topic:
Globalization, National Security, Democracy, State Building, and transnationalism
Recent years have seen record numbers of Africans forcibly displaced from their homes. The most recent figure of 25 million people displaced is a 500-percent increase from 2005. While much attention focuses on economic migrants who are trying to cross into Europe, 95 percent of those who are displaced remain on the continent. Two-thirds of these are displaced within their home countries. In short, the reality faced is more accurately characterized as an African displacement, rather than a European migrant, crisis.
This paper explores the drivers of population displacement in Africa, security ramifications, and priorities for reversing this destabilizing trend.
Topic:
Migration, Diaspora, Political stability, and Displacement
Luka Biong Deng Kuol, Majak D'Agoôt, Remember Miamingi, Lauren Hutton, Phillip Kasaija Apuuli, Luol Deim Kuol, and Godfrey Musila
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The internal conflict and resulting humanitarian crisis embroiling South Sudan since December 2013 have exposed the country’s fragility. A weak national identity, ethnically based violence, a legacy of violent conflict resolution, personalized and patronage-based politics, weak institutional checks on the abuse of power, and the absence of encompassing leadership, among other factors, all pose obstacles to peacebuilding. As a result, envisaging a stable South Sudan has become increasingly difficult for many South Sudanese and external observers.
With regional and international diplomacy rightly focused on negotiating an immediate end to hostilities, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies has asked a selection of South Sudanese and international scholars, security practitioners, and civil society leaders to share their visions of the strategic issues South Sudan must address if it is to make a transition from its current state of dissimilation to a more stable reality. These visions, taken individually and collectively, are intended to help sketch out some of the priorities and prerequisites for transforming today’s highly fragmented security landscape in South Sudan to one in which its citizens are safe in their own country and are protected from external threats.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nationalism, Regional Cooperation, United Nations, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:
Africa, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa
Declines in violent activity linked to Boko Haram and al Shabaab are balanced by increases in the Sahel, generating a mixed picture of the challenge posed by militant Islamist groups in Africa.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, ISIS, Islamic State, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, Somalia, Mali, Chad, and Niger
The escalation of violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel reflects an array of diverse actors operating within distinct geographic concentrations.
Topic:
Political Violence, International Cooperation, and Militant Islam
Increased attacks from militant Islamist groups in the Sahel coupled with cross-border challenges such as trafficking, migration, and displacement have prompted a series of regional and international security responses.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Trafficking, and Displacement
A surge of attacks in the Sahel coupled with declines in activity by Boko Haram, ISIS, and al Shabaab reflect the constantly shifting threats posed by militant Islamist groups in Africa.
With Africa's population expected to double by 2050, the rapid increase in the number of forcibly displaced Africans of the past decade will continue to expand unless key drivers are reversed.
Topic:
Migration, United Nations, Diaspora, and Displacement
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, South Sudan, and Central African Republic
Human trafficking remains a significant problem in Africa, exploiting vulnerable individuals—children, women, and men—for forced labor as well as prostitution.
Topic:
United Nations, Labor Issues, Children, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, North Africa, West Africa, and East Africa
Despite multiple ceasefires and peace agreements signed since the conflict began in 2013, the humanitarian costs to the citizens of South Sudan continue to grow.
Topic:
Civil War, Humanitarian Intervention, Negotiation, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa
The escalation of violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel reflects an array of diverse actors operating within distinct geographic concentrations.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Violent Extremism, and Militant Islam
Now in its fifth year, South Sudan’s current conflict has displaced 4.5 million people—the same number of southern Sudanese displaced during the entire three-decade Sudan civil war.
Topic:
Civil War, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Refugees, and Displacement
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa
Progress toward institutionalizing the norm of presidential term limits in Africa has been mixed. Leaders in 5 countries have evaded term limits since 2015, bringing the number of countries lacking term limits to 18. In contrast, 21 African countries have upheld presidential term limits, and an additional 15 now have such limits on the books. These limits, in turn, have wide-ranging implications
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Political structure, Political stability, and Institutionalism
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, West Africa, Central Africa, and Southern Africa
Expansion of violent events linked to an array of militant Islamist groups in the Sahel highlights the growing scope of security challenges facing this region.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, Militant Islam, and Al Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, West Africa, East Africa, and Sahel
A time-lapse review of violent episodes involving militant Islamist groups in African since 2010 provides insights into the evolution of these actors over the course of this decade.
Multiple possible scenarios could emerge from Zimbabwe’s July 30 polls—the country’s first without Robert Mugabe’s name on the ballot. For now, the military appears intent on leveraging its interests.
Since Egypt’s appearance in the inaugural 1930 World Cup, African countries’ performance in the tournament has been a source of pride and national identity.
The growing share of Africa’s urban residents living in slums is creating a further source of fragility. In response, some cities are implementing integrated urban development strategies that link local government, police, the private sector, and youth to strengthen social cohesion and enhance stability.
Topic:
International Affairs, Urbanization, and Political stability
Persistent economic and social disparities between urban centers and outlying communities present an ongoing source of instability for countries in the Maghreb.
The violence in the aftermath of Zimbabwe’s elections and ongoing disputes over their credibility undercut the goal of establishing legitimacy for the post-Mugabe government.
Mali faces multiple security challenges that demand both strengthened legitimacy and state capacity to address. Building on credible elections, stabilization will also require reconciliation and extending the presence of the state.
Sweeping changes to Burundi's constitution have consolidated power in the presidency, dismantled much of the Arusha Accords, and heightened the risk of greater violence and instability.
Somalia’s National Security Advisor Abdisaid Ali talks about political will, security reforms in Somalia’s Transition Plan, and the commitment to domestic and international coalition building to sustain the country’s progress.
Africa is more vulnerable to climate change than any other region on the planet. This map reflects a few of the ways the changing environment is straining Africa’s social systems.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Poverty, Water, Political stability, and Unemployment
After two years the Burundi crisis continues to worsen. Despite government claims that the situation has normalized, facts on the ground suggest otherwise.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, United Nations, Refugees, Displacement, and Violence
After losing territory in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has affirmed its intention to expand its operations into Africa. A review of militant group activity on the continent, however, suggests that ISIS will be challenged to do so.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Violent Extremism, ISIS, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Middle East, North Africa, and Syria
As instability from the political crisis continues to worsen, Burundi refugee flows and displacement show no signs of abating. The number of registered refugees has risen 60 percent in the last year—to 423,056—escalating the political and economic costs for all of Burundi's neighbors.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, United Nations, Refugees, Political stability, and Displacement
A review of violent events involving militant Islamist groups in Africa over the past year reveals a mixed picture, with some groups showing increased activity and others diminished. This variance underscores the importance of local factors affecting each context.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, ISIS, Militant Islam, Al Shabaab, and Boko Haram
The humanitarian situation in South Sudan continues to deteriorate as the conflict persists unabated. Four years of widespread violence have left 6 million people—half the population—acutely food insecure.
Topic:
Civil War, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Food Security, and Conflict
Africa’s humanitarian crises have continued to worsen in 2017. Displacement of Africans has reached twenty million, and 44 million are acutely food insecure.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Food Security, Refugees, and Displacement
African leaders’ adherence to constitutional term limits is a key component of institutionalizing predictable norms of democratic succession. Progress toward establishing this norm has been mixed, however. While a number of African countries have succeeded in upholding term limits over the past two decades, leaders in more than 20 countries effectively do not face restrictions on their time in power.
Topic:
Democracy, Political structure, Political stability, and Institutionalism
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, East Africa, Central Africa, and Southern Africa
A quarterly update of a map tracking militant Islamic group activity in Africa as compiled by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Al Shabaab has been involved in over half of all violent events related to militant Islamist groups in Africa in the first three quarters of 2017 (987 of 1,827 total).
Topic:
Violent Extremism, ISIS, Militant Islam, and Al Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, West Africa, and East Africa