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  • Author: Vladimir Matic
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Public International Law Policy Group
  • Abstract: Nationalism remains a potent force in Serbia, strongly affecting the politicking within the political elite regarding final status issues in Kosovo. The democratic forces are not immune from Kosovo-related nationalism and have at times adopted hardline positions to diminish their vulnerabilities in the political struggle. Since the end of the Kosovo war the West has done nothing to dispel the perception in Belgrade that Serbia's legal claim of sovereignty over Kosovo remains valid in principle and of equivalent standing as an issue “on the table” with Kosovo Albanians' insistence on independence in the prelude to negotiations. Belgrade ignores the fact that, with virtually no Albanians in Kosovo willing to work with them, they have no Albanian partners in pursuing this goal. Kosovo Serbs also display considerable mistrust of Belgrade's concern for their interests. The EU and UNMIK have attempted to create a framework for progress on the issue, but success will hinge on the willingness of the United States to exercise diplomatic leadership to resolve the deadlock.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Albania
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Public International Law Policy Group
  • Abstract: The results of Serbia's December 2003 parliamentary elections accelerated concerns that the situation in the Balkans is seriously deteriorating. On 2 March 2004 the Public International Law Policy Group and The Century Foundation convened a roundtable of sixteen people deeply involved in Balkan issues from the region, Europe, and the United States to review the general situation in the Balkans and examine the approach of the United States and European Union (EU) to the region.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Politics, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Serbia, Balkans
  • Author: Vladimir Matic
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Public International Law Policy Group
  • Abstract: The assassinated prime minister of Serbia, Zoran Djindjic, appears to have won in death much of what he could not achieve in life. His concept of Serbia's way out of the domestic political and economic crisis through reform and membership in a democratic Europe has prevailed over one representing the past; Serbia is finally open to cooperation with the world. But the national consensus he was dreaming about does not yet exist. The prevalence and reach of networks of organized crime and corruption limit prospects for significant further structural change and more serious consolidation of the rule of law. The Serbian people have put aside for the moment their infatuation with radical nationalism rather than exorcising it from their society and intellectual culture. The success of such reform as has been implemented is far from secured. For the time being the joint efforts of the leading pro-democratization parties of Serbia and Montenegro have brought about the beginning of long-postponed changes in the army and initiated far-reaching reforms. This allows continuation of reforms in Serbian services and strengthening of the basic institutions of democracy. If continued, expanded and intensified, this course will take both Serbia and Montenegro irrespective of the final destiny of their Union closer to democracy and to the European Union and the United States.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Serbia
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Public International Law Policy Group
  • Abstract: As the situation in Iraq continues to stabilize, the people of Iraq will turn to the task of reconstituting an Iraqi state. One of the first steps in this process will be to design, agree upon, and implement a new constitutional structure. While drafting a new constitution is a difficult and contentious process for any country, the challenges are substantially magnified for Iraq given its complex mosaic of ethnic and religious identities, the history of repression under Saddam Hussein, the necessary presence of American forces, and Iraq's complex relations with its neighboring states.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, War
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: James Lilley
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Public International Law Policy Group
  • Abstract: You have clearly worked over the complicated relationship between Taiwan and China. I can only try to build on what Dr. Lin Chong--pin and Mr. Rostow have already described so lucidly. I would like to point out first that China chooses, for both tactical and emotional reasons, to place a special heavy emphasis on its relationship with Taiwan and to its point that Taiwan is part of China. Emotional, because this stirs up nationalism among a skeptical Chinese elite who have lost ideology. Tactical, because driving home the unity and sovereignty themes forces the U.S. on the defensive, i.e., the U.S. interferes in China's internal affairs, a cardinal sin in China's own lexicon. In reality, however, China has been practical. For almost fifty years Chinese propaganda has focused on Taiwan as a pure target, but objective circumstances have changed and so has China's strategy. China took over the Ta Chen Islands peacefully in 1954, its last significant territorial acquisition in the Taiwan Strait. Its later more militaristic approach against a well--defended Quemoy (Chin men) failed in 1958, and China retreated with much bluster and firing of cannons, many of them empty.
  • Topic: Politics, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Taiwan, Asia
  • Author: Peter R. Rosenblatt
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Public International Law Policy Group
  • Abstract: The title of my contribution to this discussion raises a point that is easy to overlook in discussions relating to the legal status of the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan. The range of options across the Strait is not confined, as the title of this conference suggests, to the reunification of China or Taiwan's independence, although either of these is obviously a possibility. A more likely option, in my judgment, is some future status for the ROC which involves neither incorporation into the People's Republic of China nor the challenging step of a declaration of “independence” as the Republic of Taiwan. This third option embraces a multiplicity of status shadings involving a continuing evolution of the ROC's current status of de facto independence. It is this option that I would like to address.
  • Topic: Politics, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: China, Taiwan, Asia
  • Author: Robert J. Vigfusson, Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: We investigate what happens to hours worked after a positive shock to technology, using the aggregate technology series computed in Basu, Fernald and Kimball (1999). We conclude that hours worked rise after such a shock.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: John W. Schindler, John G. Fernald, Prakash Loungani, Alan J. Ahearne
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Do increases in China's exports reduce exports of other emerging Asian economies? We find that correlations between Chinese export growth and that of other emerging Asian economies are actually positive (though usually not significant), even after controlling for trading-partner income growth and real effective exchange rates. We also present results from a VAR estimation of aggregate trade equations on the relative importance of foreign income and exchange rates in determining Asian export growth. Although exchange rates do matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners matters even more. In addition, we examine specific products and find evidence that a considerable shifting of trade patterns is taking place, consistent with a 'flying geese' pattern in which China and ASEAN-4 move into the product space vacated by the NIEs. Our results suggest that China and emerging Asia are both comrades (overall) and competitors (in specific products).
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Robert J. Vigfusson
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This paper studies how much of productivity fluctuations are industry specific versus how much are country specific. Using data on manufacturing industries in Canada and the United States, the paper shows that the correlation between cross-border pairings of the same industry are more often highly correlated than previously thought. In addition, the paper confirms earlier findings that the similarity of input use can help describe the co-movement of productivity fluctuations across industries.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States, Canada, North America
  • Author: Jon Faust, Brian M. Doyle
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This paper investigates breaks in the variability and co-movement of output, consumption, and investment in the G-7 economies. In contrast with most other papers on co-movement, we test for changes in co-movement allowing for breaks in mean and variance. Despite claims that rising integration among these economies has increased output correlations among them, we find no clear evidence of an increase in correlation of growth rates of output, consumption, or investment. This finding is true even for the United States and Canada, which have seen a tremendous increase in bilateral trade shares, and for the members of the euro area in the G-7.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Canada, North America