Search

Begin New Search Topic Development

3051. Pushing Toward Party Politics: Kuwait's Islamic Constitutional Movement

Author:
Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Kuwait's Islamic Constitutional Movement (ICM), founded in 1991, is a relatively new political actor in Kuwait. Yet by the standards of regional Islamist movements, it is one of the most experienced in parliamentary and electoral politics. The ICM can claim some real electoral and programmatic successes, but any move beyond marginal or incremental achievements rests largely on its ability to build on the success of an ad hoc and diverse coalition of Islamist, liberal, and populist political forces. In short, if the ICM navigates difficult waters, it may be able to achieve many of its goals while demonstrating the broader potential of an Islamist electoral movement as part of a coalition pressing for liberalizing political reform. Kuwaiti political history suggests strong reasons for skepticism-the opposition has never been able to maintain a united front for long, and the Kuwaiti government has tools at its disposal to disperse, placate, and even exclude dissenters. But the opportunities beckoning the movement and other opposition political forces are stronger than they have ever been.
Topic:
Development, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kuwait

3052. Roots of Radical Islam in Central Asia

Author:
Martha Brill Olcott
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The history of the development of Islamic radicalism in Uzbekistan, and in Central Asia more generally, is a potentially contentious one. There is very little agreement either within the policy community in the United States or in Central Asia itself as to what Islamic radicalism is and who among devout Muslims should be considered as posing a threat to the secular regimes.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, and Uzbekistan

3053. Has U.S. Income Inequality Really Increased?

Author:
Alan Reynolds
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
There are frequent complaints that U.S. income inequality has increased in recent decades. Estimates of rising inequality that are widely cited in the media are often based on federal income tax return data. Those data appear to show that the share of U.S. income going to the top 1 percent (those people with the highest incomes) has increased substantially since the 1970s.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States

3054. A Short Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments

Author:
David Roodman
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The “difference” and “system” generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel models are growing steadily in popularity. The estimators are designed for panels with short time dimensions (T), and by default they generate instruments sets whose number grows quadratically in T. The dangers associated with having many instruments relative to observations are documented in the applied literature. The instruments can overfit endogenous variables, failing to expunge their endogenous components and biasing coefficient estimates. Mean while they can vitiate the Hansen J test for joint validity of those instruments, as well as the difference-in-Sargan/Hansen test for subsets of instruments. The weakness of these specification tests is a particular concern for system GMM, whose distinctive instruments are only valid under a non-trivial assumption. Judging by current practice, many researchers do not fully appreciate that popular implementations of these estimators can by default generate results that simultaneously are invalid yet appear valid. The potential for type I errors—false positives—is therefore substantial, especially after amplification by publication bias. This paper explains the risks and illustrates them with reference to two early applications of the estimators to economic growth, Forbes (2000) on income inequality and Levine, Loayza, and Beck (LLB, 2000) on financial sector development. Endogenous causation proves hard to rule out in both papers. Going forward, for results from these GMM estimators to be credible, researchers must report the instrument count and aggressively test estimates and specification test results for robustness to reductions in that count.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Third World

3055. Pathways Out of Poverty During an Economic Crisis: An Empirical Assessment of Rural Indonesia

Author:
Peter Timmer and Neil McCulloch
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Most poor people in developing countries still live in rural areas and are primarily engaged in low productivity farming activities. Thus pathways out of poverty are likely to be strongly connected to productivity increases in the rural economy, whether they are realised in farming, rural non-farm enterprises or via rural-urban migration. We use cross-sectional data from the Central Statistical Board (BPS) for 1993 and 2002, as well as a panel data set from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) for 1993 and 2000, to show which pathways out of poverty were most successful over this period. Our findings suggest that increased engagement of farmers in rural non-farm enterprises is an important route out of rural poverty, but that most of the rural agricultural poor that exit poverty still do so while remaining rural and agricultural. Thus changes in agricultural prices, wages and productivity still play a critical role in moving people out of poverty.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

3056. What Have IMF Programs With Low-Income Countries Assumed About Aid Flows?

Author:
David Goldsbrough and Ben Elberger
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper examines the nature of aid projections in IMF programs with low-income countries. On average, IMF projections of net aid increased sharply in the first year of programs but tapered off in subsequent years. Projections were also significantly more optimistic in countries with low initial levels of aid but differed little across regions. Most notably, projections of net aid to countries in Sub-Saharan Africa following the Gleneagles Summit are significantly more pessimistic than the path implied by commitments to double aid to Africa by 2010. This pattern is strong throughout the group with only two Sub-Saharan African countries showing increases in net aid consistent with the Gleneagles commitments.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Poverty, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:
Africa

3057. Income Distribution: Effects on Growth and Development

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
I review the literature on the effects of inequality on growth and development in the developing world. Two stylized facts emerge from empirical studies: inequality is more likely to harm growth in countries at low levels of income (below about $3200 per capita in 2000 dollars); and it is at high levels of inequality (at or above a Gini coefficient of .45) that a negative association emerges. Between 15 and 40 percent of the developing world's population lives in countries with these characteristics, depending on the inclusion of China, whose level of inequality has recently been measured at almost .45. Theory and evidence suggest that high inequality affects growth: (1) through interaction with incomplete and underdeveloped markets for capital and information; (2) by discouraging the evolution of the economic and political institutions associated with accountable government (which in turn enable a market environment conducive to investment and growth); and (3) by undermining the civic and social life that sustains effective collective decision-making.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Political Economy, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China

3058. Performance-based Incentives for Health: Demand- and Supply-Side Incentives in the Nicaraguan Red de Protección Social

Author:
Ferdinando Regalía and Leslie Castro
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Nicaragua's Red de Protección Social (RPS) is one of the first conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs implemented in a low-income country. Demand-side incentives, in the form of monetary transfers, are provided to poor households on condition that their children attend school and visit preventive health care providers. The design of the program is unique among CCT programs because these demand-side incentives are complemented by supply-side incentives aimed at improving the provision of health care. Health care providers are paid on the basis of their performance against predetermined targets. Both private and nonprofit health care providers contracted by the government extend the coverage of services to previously underserved areas.
Topic:
Development, Health, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Latin America

3059. Performance-Based Incentives for Health: Conditional Cash Transfer Programs in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
Amanda Glassman, Jessica Todd, and Marie Gaarder
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In order to support poor families in the developing world to seek and use health care, a multi-pronged strategy is needed on both the supply and the demand side of health care. A demand-side program called Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) strives to reduce poverty and also increase food consumption, school attendance, and use of preventive health care. Since 1997, seven countries in Latin America have implemented and evaluated CCT programs with health and nutrition components. The core of the program is based on encouraging poor mothers to seek preventive health services and attend health education talks by providing a cash incentive for their healthy behavior (with healthy behavior representing performance). Evaluations of these programs measured outputs in the utilization of services; health knowledge, attitudes, and practice; food consumption; the supply and quality of services; as well as outcomes in vaccination rates; nutritional status; morbidity; mortality; and fertility.
Topic:
Development, Health, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Latin America

3060. Performance-Based Incentives for Health: Six Years of Results from Supply-Side Programs in Haiti

Author:
Amanda Glassman, Jessica Todd, and Marie Gaarder
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
USAID launched a project in 1995 to deliver basic health services in Haiti. The project began by reimbursing contracted NGOs for documented expenditures or inputs. In 1999, payment was changed to being based partly on attaining performance targets or outputs. The project also provided technical assistance to the NGOs, along with opportunities to participate in an NGO network and other cross-fertilization activities. Remarkable improvements in key health indicators have been achieved in the six years since payment for performance was phased in. Although it is difficult to isolate the effects of performance-based payment on these improved indicators from the efforts aimed at strengthening NGOs and other factors, panel regression results suggest that the new payment incentives were responsible for considerable improvements in both immunization coverage and attended deliveries. Results for prenatal and postnatal care were less significant, perhaps suggesting a strong patient behavioral element that is not under the influence of provider actions.
Topic:
Development, Health, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti