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9901. A Capable EU Is No Utopia: Strategic Lessons from the German Presidency

Author:
Anna-Lena Kirch
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Overall, as the COVID-19 crisis unfolded, the EU proved capable to act. Crisis management addressing the pandemic benefited from the fact that Germany held the presidency of the EU Council in the second half of 2020 and could build upon its traditional approach: developing European capabilities, including all governments, and being prepared for the unexpected. Now, going forward, Germany needs to use its experience with complexity and uncertainty to help form a strategic doctrine for the EU.
Topic:
European Union, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

9902. Blurry Counterterrorism: A Chance for Russia, A Risk for Europe

Author:
Miriam Heß
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The European Union should actively address the problematic use of counterterrorism by non-European states – especially Russia – and make it a permanent aspect in developing counterterrorism strategies and agendas. Failing to address the misuse of counterterrorism sends the wrong signal not only to those with reason to fear geopolitical interference by their countries of origin, but also to states that pursue “anti-terrorist-operations” in the form of abductions and executions abroad.
Topic:
European Union, Counter-terrorism, Geopolitics, and Risk
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

9903. Germany Between a Rock and a Hard Place in China-US Competition

Author:
Markus Jaeger
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The Biden administration has just issued its Interim National Security Strategic Guidance. The guidance document states the need to “build back better at home” and acknowledges that “international economic policies must serve all Americans” – a theme often referred to as “foreign policy for the middle class”. While the interim guidance does not preclude cooperation with China in selected policy areas, it is unambiguous in considering China a strategic competitor. The prospect of intensifying China-US geopolitical and (geo)economic competition is bad news for Germany, which has high value trading and investment relationships with both countries.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, National Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, Germany, North America, and United States of America

9904. To the Viktor Go the Spoils: What Orbán Needs to Form a New Political Camp in Europe

Author:
Milan Nič and Julian Rappold
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The next months will show whether Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán can retain his influence in Europe even outside its largest political family. Having left the center-right European People’s Party before his party was finally pushed out, Orbán is now trying to regroup and unite the populist and Euroskeptic forces in European Parliament. What looks like a defeat could still be turned to his advantage if it leads to a lasting reshuffle of political alliances and strengthens illiberal voices.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Populism, and European Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

9905. Assessing China and Russia’s Influence on the German Parliamentary Elections

Author:
Didi Kirsten Tatlow and András Rácz
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
China and Russia want to maintain Germany’s political status quo: Centrist, at times mercantilist policies, have often worked in their favor. Now, with the Green Party ascendant and public opinion shifting, neither Russia nor China can be sure that classic "centrism” will emerge after September. Russia and China will increase their influence and interference efforts in the run-up to the election and beyond, using informational, political, and cyber tactics, and economic and political networks.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Public Opinion, and Elections
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

9906. Productivity and the Pandemic: ShortTerm Disruptions and Long-Term Implications

Author:
Klaas de Vries, Abdul Erumban, and Bart van Ark
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
This paper analyses quarterly estimates of productivity growth at industry level for three advanced economies, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, for 2020. We use detailed industry-level data to distinguish reallocations of working hours between industries from pure within-industry productivity gains or losses. We find that all three countries showed positive growth rates of aggregate output per hour in 2020 over 2019. However, after removing the effects from the reallocation of hours between low and high productivity industries, only the US still performed positively in terms of withinindustry productivity growth. In contrast, the two European economies showed negative within-industry productivity growth rates in 2020. While above-average digital-intensive industries outperformed belowaverage ones in both France and the UK, the US showed higher productivity growth in both groups compared to the European countries. Industries with medium-intensive levels of shares of employees working from home prior to the pandemic made larger productivity gains in 2020 than industries with the highest pre-pandemic work-from-home shares. The paper also experiments with US data on employment at county level by allocating within-industry productivity contributions for 2020 to urban, sub-urban and rural areas, showing that the contributions to within-industry productivity growth from manufacturing and other production industries in urban and sub-urban areas increased during the pandemic. Overall, after taking into account the productivity collapse in the hospitality and culture sector during 2020, productivity growth shows no clear deviation from the slowing pre-pandemic productivity trend. Future trends in productivity growth will depend on whether the favourable productivity gains (or smaller losses) in industries with above-average digital intensity will outweigh negative effects from the pandemic, in particular scarring effects on labour markets and business dynamics.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Work Culture, Pandemic, COVID-19, Productivity, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, and United States of America

9907. Why Wages Are Growing Rapidly Now— And Will Continue to in the Future

Author:
Gad Levanon and Frank Steemers
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
In the first half of 2021, wages grew at the fastest pace in over 20 years. The sudden surge is likely to challenge organizations in recruitment, retention, and compensation strategies in the near term—and over the next decade. Wage growth in the US through 2022 and beyond fits into three distinct phases: 1) strong wage growth in the spring and summer of 2021; 2) moderating wage growth by late 2021 and during 2022; and 3) renewed acceleration of wages in 2023 and beyond, most notably in blue-collar and manual services.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Business, and Wage Growth
Political Geography:
United States of America

9908. Building Infrastructure in Real Time: Avoiding Regulatory Paralysis

Author:
Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The physical infrastructure base of the US economy, once an advantage in global competition, has become a liability. This problem has multiple causes, several of which CED has addressed in recent policy statements, and our nation’s elected policymakers are now taking up the need for additional funding. But the nation needs not only adequate funding but also a more-efficient regulatory process for our infrastructure investment—choosing the right projects, with the minimum delay, and executing them at the least possible cost. Regulatory paralysis is one of the causes of our infrastructure shortfall. It needs attention if we are going to spend our tax dollars on infrastructure wisely and efficiently so that the US economy remains globally competitive. Streamlining regulatory procedures, promoting competition, and cutting red tape across federal, state, and local governments are key to increasing investment, decreasing cost, and maximizing efficiency. Business as usual will not suffice. It takes too long and costs too much to deliver infrastructure projects, preventing us from achieving the advancements and improvements that a future-focused, competitive economy requires. CED has consistently advocated “smart regulation,” subjecting new regulations to rigorous cost-benefit analysis and reviewing existing regulations for continuing cost effectiveness to enhance efficiency and achieve quicker execution, greater benefits, and lower costs. With long delays between project conception and execution, and often multiple layers of jurisdiction and review, a smart regulation approach could ensure that the rules governing review and permitting of projects address all important concerns and ensure that net benefits are maximized over time at all levels of government on a comprehensive and timely basis.
Topic:
Economics, Infrastructure, Governance, Regulation, Business, Economic Policy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

9909. What Does China’s Update of its Anti-Monopoly Law and New Regulations for the “Platform Economy” Mean for Business?

Author:
David Hoffman
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The recently enacted revisions to China’s Anti-Monopoly Law, and its extensive provisions for regulating China’s “platform economy” – i.e., fintech and ecommerce platforms – are consequential for foreign investors in China, bearing both upside and downside risks. On the one hand, they reinforce the trend of increasing state intervention in China’s economy and commercial markets and raise concerns about a more confined and controlled play-space for the private sector in China, a cohort which includes foreign multinational companies and financial investors.
Topic:
Governance, Law, Economy, Business, Investment, Monopoly, Private Sector, and Commerce
Political Geography:
China and Asia

9910. Headquarters-China "Co" Relations - Navigating the Very Contemporary Yins and Yangs of MNC Business in China

Author:
David Hoffman
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
Many China organizations of western multinational companies (MNCs) report increasing friction and misalignment with headquarters (HQ) across a range of China issues. We observe three primary sources of tension and misalignment: a differing appraisal of risks, including, importantly, confidence in abilities to protect IP; a differing calculus on the evaluation of opportunities; and concerns, at HQ and Board level, about the control implications of increasingly divergent, if not more autonomous, China operations.
Topic:
Economy, Business, Multinational Corporations, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Global Focus