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Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Political Geography China

281. A Rapidly Changing Energy World, Or Perhaps Not

Author:
Irwin M. Stelzer
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Slow growth here and in China, and recession in Europe are reducing demand for oil. Inventories in the U.S. are at a 22-year high. The Federal Reserve Board's QEs that pumped paper money into the economy and drove up the nominal price of oil have come to an end. And the twelve OPEC oil cartelists, who between them supply 40% of the world's oil, are producing 1.6 million barrels in excess of the agreed daily quota of 30 million barrels. As a result, U.S. benchmark crude oil prices are now closer to $80 per barrel than to the $110 they reached only four months ago.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

282. A China Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations

Author:
Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Until recently, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been an effective framework for cooperation because it has continually adapted to changing economic realities. The current Doha Agenda is an aberration because it does not reflect one of the biggest shifts in the international economic and trading system: the rise of China. Even though China will have a stake in maintaining trade openness, an initiative that builds on but redefines the Doha Agenda would anchor China more fully in the multilateral trading system. Such an initiative would have two pillars. First, a new negotiating agenda that would include the major issues of interest to China and its trading partners, and thus unleash the powerful reciprocal liberalization mechanism that has driven the WTO process to previous successes. Second, new restraints on bilateralism and regionalism that would help preserve incentives for maintaining the current broad non-discriminatory trading order.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Israel

283. Do Chinese Really Save Too Much? Aspects from Total Factor Productivity Growth in China since 1952

Author:
Qiong Zhang and Chong-En Bai
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
China's economic growth over the past three decades is unprecedented. Although this growth is commonly attributed to a high domestic savings rate among “thrifty” Chinese, savings alone cannot promote economic growth unless productivity has continuously grown for such a long period. This article uses a one-sector, neoclassical growth model to calibrate the economy to Chinese data since 1952 and finds that measuring changes in total factor productivity between 1952 and 2005 can well capture the secular movements in the Chinese savings rate. Far from supporting the widespread belief that China's savings rate is too high, this article argues that even thrifty Chinese “under-saved” for most of the years during this period; furthermore, the fiscal reforms of 1983 and 1985 further suppressed saving behavior, especially China's economic growth over the past three decades is unprecedented. Although this growth is commonly attributed to a high domestic savings rate among “thrifty” Chinese, savings alone cannot promote economic growth unless productivity has continuously grown for such a long period. This article uses a one-sector, neoclassical growth model to calibrate the economy to Chinese data since 1952 and finds that measuring changes in total factor productivity between 1952 and 2005 can well capture the secular movements in the Chinese savings rate. Far from supporting the widespread belief that China's savings rate is too high, this article argues that even thrifty Chinese “under-saved” for most of the years during this period; furthermore, the fiscal reforms of 1983 and 1985 further suppressed saving behavior, especially when initially implemented. In presenting such findings, this article at least partly solves the so-called “Chinese savings puzzle.”
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
China

284. The Growth of Chinese Exports: An Examination of the Detailed Trade Data

Author:
Brett Berger and Robert F Martin
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Over the past decade, Chinese exports have boomed, increasing far faster than GDP growth. What can account for this explosion? Our paper uses finely detailed Chinese export data (8-digit HS codes) combined with U.S. trade data to explore this question. Although exchange rate policy clearly boosted the trade surplus, and the structure of the economy, e.g. abundant cheap labor, encouraged investment, these alone cannot account for the changing composition and acceleration of exports. We find that the growth in exports is most likely a product of effective Chinese industrial policy and fortuitous timing. The detailed trade data reveal that key “new” technology goods, such as cell phones, LCD screens, and laptops played a critical role. Finally, we use the data to examine the relationship between Chinese exports and global manufacturing, in particular U.S. manufacturing employment. We find that increased Chinese competition in both domestic and U.S. export markets likely lowered U.S. manufacturing employment between 2000 and 2007. Chinese policy is not, however, wholly responsible. Some job losses, such as in textile production, were no doubt the result of China’s natural comparative advantages, while other U.S. job losses are attributable to relatively low investment and slow GDP growth in the United States following the 2001 recession.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Exports, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China and Asia

285. Adjusting to China: A Challenge to the U.S. Manufacturing Sector

Author:
Martin Neil Baily
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
During an "exit interview" with the Wall Street Journal, departing National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers argued that history would judge the United States based on how well we adjust to China's emergence as a great power, economically and politically. In the face of China's progress, America's manufacturing sector faces major challenges in becoming and remaining competitive and our choice of national economic policies will affect how well we meet those challenges. It is essential that the U.S. trade deficit not balloon as the economy recovers. There is scope to expand our exports in services and agriculture, but improving the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing is vital.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, and America

286. Security developments in East Asia: what implications for the EU?

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
East Asia is home to some of the most important trading partners of the Union. China is foremost among these, ranking second only to the US - in 2009, EU-China trade totalled a massive €296 billion - while the EU is China's most important trading partner. Japan is the sixth-largest trade partner of the EU - in 2009, EU-Japan trade was almost €92 billion. South Korea is the EU's eighth-largest trade partner and the EU has become South Korea's second largest export destination - total trade in 2009 was above €53 billion. Furthermore, on 6 October 2010 the EU and South Korea signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) which is the most ambitious bilateral trade agreement ever negotiated by the EU, and the first with an Asian country.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, Israel, Asia, and South Korea

287. Growth and Recovery in a Time of Default: Lessons from the Role of the Urban Sector in Argentina

Author:
Michael Cohen
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
International narratives on Argentina's recovery from the crisis of 2001-02 tend to emphasize the role of rising commodity prices and growing demand from China. Argentina is said to have been 'lucky', saved by global demand for its agricultural exports. The international narrative has also been used by local agricultural exporters to justify their objections against higher export taxes during periods of high commodity prices. These narratives are not correct. Data on the country's recovery show that it was not led by agricultural exports but was fuelled by urban demand and production. When the Convertibility period ended and the peso was devalued in 2002, price increases for imports stimulated the production of domestic goods and services for consumers. This production in turn generated multiplier effects which supported small and medium-sized firms and helped to create many new jobs. This later produced a revival of the construction and then the manufacturing sectors as well.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China, Argentina, and Latin America

288. Turkey and Taiwan: The Relationship Seeking Its Ground

Author:
Selçuk Çolakoglu and Arzu Güler
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:
In the pre-1971 period, "One China" for Turkey was the Republic of China in Taiwan and the two countries were in cooperation against communist expansion. However, in 1971, though being reluctant for the expulsion of Taiwan from the United Nations, Turkey recognized People's Republic of China as the sole legal representative of China and pursued the "One China" policy in that respect. Thus, in the post-1971 period, Turkey's relations with Taiwan have continued only in terms of economy, trade and culture without recognizing it as an independent political unit. Beginning from early 1990s, Turkey began to take initiatives to increase its trade cooperation with Taiwan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Culture
Political Geography:
China, Turkey, Taiwan, Asia, and United Nations

289. Toward Greater Pragmatism? China\'s Approach to Innovation and Standardization

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
China\'s innovation policy and its perceived threat to American innovation and competitiveness is a hot topic in U.S.-China economic relations. The role of standardization, together with intellectual property rights and government procurement, are at the center of this conflict. Fundamental differences in their levels of development and economic institutions lead to quite different approaches to standards and innovation policy by the two countries. China\'s strategy of pursuing indigenous innovation based on local standards faces internal challenges in trying to bring together a diverse group of stakeholders with conflicting interests, as well as external pressures to adopt international standards. Enhanced cooperation on standards and innovation policies should be possible, once the United States and China accept that, while their economic and innovation systems are different, they are deeply interdependent. Both sides would benefit, creating new Chinese markets for American firms and easing technology licensing restrictions for Chinese firms.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Asia, and North America

290. China in the Pacific: the new banker in town

Author:
Fergus Hanson and Mary Fifita
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What is the problem? China is now one of the Pacific\'s major donors. An analysis of its aid program in the region from 2005 to 2009 suggests it is reducing the grant component of its aid and increasing the soft loan proportion. China has pledged over $US 600 million to the Pacific since 2005 and debt burdening will become increasingly pressing as Chinese loans accumulate and the five-year grace periods expire. There appears to have been limited progress improving transparency.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific