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  • Author: Manuel Pastor, Carol Wise
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: Just as the 1980s now stand out as the decade of the debt crisis in Latin America, the 1990s have become the free trade decade. After a number of failed attempts at trade liberalization during the 1970s, many states in the region now have made dramatic progress in their efforts to reduce tariffs and eliminate quantitative restrictions (QRs) (see Table 1). The strongest evidence of this new openness is reflected in Mexico's 1994 entry into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States and Canada, the stated intention at the 1994 Summit of the Americas in Miami to develop a plan for the full expansion of hemispheric free trade, and the ongoing consolidation of such subregional trade pacts as South America's Southern Cone Common Market (MER - COSUR), including Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
  • Topic: Development, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Canada, Brazil, South America, Uruguay, Caribbean, North America, Paraguay
  • Author: Louis P. Falino
  • Publication Date: 06-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: The binational center (BNC) has been one of the most successful elements in U.S. cultural programs overseas and, as such, has made important contributions to U.S. foreign policy. Through the historical study of binational centers, one sees that contemporary issues in cultural relations and public diplomacy have been dealt with on many occasions in the past, and they resurface according to the demands of the moment. This historical study of BNCs thus provides a way of reflecting upon and reconsidering perennial issues involving cultural programs and the effective conduct of U.S. foreign policy.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Richard L. Bernal
  • Publication Date: 04-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: Strategic global repositioning is a process of r epositioning a country in the global economy by implementing a strategic plan. Such plans are designed to consolidate and improve existing production lines while reorienting the economy toward new types of economic activities. In most developing countries, this involves structural transformation (not adjustment) to achieve economic diversification, including export diversification. The need for strategic global repositioning derives from trends in the global economy that portend limited opportunities for industrialization in developing countries.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy
  • Author: Benjamin Rivlin, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, Arthur M. Schlesinger, Mehr Kahn, Jyoti Shankar Singh, Elissavet Stamatopoulou, Nitin Desai, John Mathiason, Waly N-Dow, Paul M. Kennedy
  • Publication Date: 02-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies, City University of New York
  • Abstract: When the record of the United Nations during its first half-century of existence is remembered in history, the continuum of UN-sponsored global conferences from the "Children's Summit in 1990 to the City Summit in 1996" will emerge as perhaps the most important contribution of the organized world community to the furtherance of human well-being. Neither mentioned nor foreseen in the Charter of the United Nations, these global conferences represent a notable example of innovation that is possible within the framework of the Charter to meet the challenges posed by changing conditions and circumstances in the world.
  • Topic: International Relations, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations
  • Author: Jon Faust
  • Publication Date: 12-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Textbook approaches to forming asymptotically justified confidence intervals for the spectrum under very general assumptions were developed by the mid-1970s. This paper shows that under the textbook assumptions, the true confidence level for these intervals does not converge to the asymptotic level, and instead is fixed at zero in all sample sizes. The paper explores necessary conditions for solving this problem, most notably showing that under weak conditions, forming valid confidence intervals requires that one limit consideration to a finite-dimensional time series model.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Economics, Education
  • Author: Jon Faust, John S. Irons
  • Publication Date: 11-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Political Economy, Politics
  • Author: Ann L. Owen, Murat F. Iyigun
  • Publication Date: 05-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: We show how the ability o accumulate human capital through formal education and through a learning-by-doing process that occurs on the job affects the dynamic behavior of the human capital stock under a liquidity constrained and a non-constrained case. When there are alternatives to formal schooling in the accumulation of human capital, investing resources in increasing school enrollment rates in low-income countries may not be the most efficient means of increasing the human capital stock. In addition, removal of the liquidity constraints may not be sufficient to escape a development trap.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Education, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Neil R. Ericsson, Kari H. Eika, Ragnar Nymoen
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: Some recent studies have suggested constructing a Monetary Conditions Index (or MCI) to serve as an indicator of monetary policy stance. The central banks of Canada, Sweden, and Norway all construct an MCI and (to varying degrees) use it in conducting monetary policy. Empirically, an MCI is calculated as the weighted sum of changes in a short-term interest rate and the exchange rate relative to values in a baseline year. The weights aim to reflect these variables' effects on longer-term focuses of policy — economic activity and inflation. This paper derives analytical and empirical properties of MCIs in an attempt to ascertain their usefulness in monetary policy.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, North America
  • Author: Chan Huh
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This paper examines the dynamic relationship between changes in the finds rate and nonborrowed reserves within a reduced form framework that allows the relationship to have WO distinct patterns over time. A regime switching model a la Hamilton (1989) is estimated. On average, CPI inflation has been significantly higher in the regime and volatile changes in funds rate. Innovations in money growth are characterized by large associated with a strong anticipated inflation effect in this high inflation regime, and a moderate liquidity effect in the low inflation regime. Furthermore, an identical money innovation generates a much bigger increase in the interest rate during a transition period from the low to high inflation regime than during a steady high inflation period. This accords well with economic intuition since the transition period is when the anticipated inflation effect initially gets incorporated into the interest rate. The converse also holds. That is, the liquidity effect becomes stronger when the economy leaves a high inflation regime period and enters a low inflation regime period.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Neil R. Ericsson, Sunil Sharma
  • Publication Date: 07-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This paper develops a constant, data-coherent, error correction model for broad money demand (M3) in Greece. This model contributes to a better understanding of the effects of monetary policy in Greece, and of the portfolio consequences of financial innovation in general. The broad monetary aggregate M3 was targeted until recently, and current monetary policy still uses such aggregates as guidelines, yet analysis of this aggregate has been dormant for over a decade.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Roman Popadiuk
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: On June 1, 1996, the last strategic missiles were shipped from Ukraine to Russia, bringing to an end a contentious issue that had marred the early stages of U.S.-Ukraine relations. In welcoming this development, President Clinton stated, “I applaud the Ukrainian government for its historic contribution in reducing the nuclear threat .... We remain committed to supporting Ukraine through its ambitious and far-sighted reforms and to working with Ukraine and our European partners to promote Ukraine's integration into the European community.”
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: Europe, Johannesburg
  • Author: Ivelaw L. Griffith
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: This study assesses the Caribbean security landscape on the eve of the fast-approaching new century with a view to considering what the future portends in the security arena. Engaging in even guarded prospection during this period of history is particularly difficult, but also exciting, partly because of dramatic changes that the world began undergoing during the 1980s. These changes make scholars and statesmen approach the new century with a combined sense of expectancy and apprehension. The expectancy stems from the anticipated benefits of the end of the Cold War, among other things; the apprehension is driven by them may unknowns that tile dynamics of changing international relations hold for the future. This is true for the Caribbean as it is for other regions of the world, and it holds true for security as it does for other issue areas.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: Caribbean
  • Author: Donna Lee Van Cott
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The cycle of Indian rebellion and government repression that characterized the first centuries of contact between European and Amerindian peoples cannot yet be consigned to the history books. The eruption of an armed movement in southern Mexico, comprised primarily of destitute Maya Indians, as well as smaller demonstrations of resistance in Brazil, Ecuador, and elsewhere speaks eloquently to this fact. While the majority of conflicts between the estimated 40 million indigenous peoples in Latin America and the societies in which they live are now played out in the political arena, security issues continue to generate violent interethnic conflict. Since the Conquest, the interests of indigenous communities usually have conflicted with national governments' security policies. These include a dimension explicitly intended to control the autonomous tendencies of indigenous communities, suppress Indian political organizing, and erase the independent identity of Indian nations.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: Brazil, South America, Latin America, Central America
  • Author: Barry D. Watts
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Since the end of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, there has been growing discussion of the possibility that technological advances in the means of combat would produce ftmdamental changes in how future wars will be fought. A number of observers have suggested that the nature of war itself would be transformed. Some proponents of this view have gone so far as to predict that these changes would include great reductions in, if not the outright elimination of, the various impediments to timely and effective action in war for which the Prussian theorist and soldier Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) introduced the term "friction." Friction in war, of course, has a long historical lineage. It predates Clausewitz by centuries and has remained a stubbornly recurring factor in combat outcomes right down to the 1991 Gulf War. In looking to the future, a seminal question is whether Clausewitzian friction would succumb to the changes in leading-edge warfare that may lie ahead, or whether such impediments reflect more enduring aspects of war that technology can but marginally affect. It is this question that the present essay will examine.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, Government, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Soviet Union, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Ralph A. Cossa
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The political, economic, and security environment of the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century will be shaped in very large part by the interrelationships among the United States, Japan, China, and Russia. To the extent these four nations can cooperate, a generally benign environment can develop in which the challenges sure to develop in the region can be managed. Conversely, tensions and conflict among the four will have a profoundly destabilizing impact regionally, if not globally.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: Russia, Japan, China, Asia, Northeast Asia
  • Author: Alan L. Gropman
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: At a dinner during the Teheran Conference in December 1943, Joseph Stalin praised United States manufacturing: I want to tell you from the Russian point of view, what the President and the United States have done to win the war. The most important things in this war are machines. The United States has proven that it can turn out from 8,000 to 10,000 airplanes per month. Russia can only turn out, at most. 3,000 airplanes a month .... The United States, therefore, is a country of machines. Without the use of those machines, through Lend-Lease, we would lose this war.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Vietnam
  • Author: Steven Philip Kramer, Irene Kyriakopoulos
  • Publication Date: 03-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: When political observers talk about European security, they invariably refer to the challenges Western Europe faces on its peripheries from a renationalized Russia, conflicts in the Balkans, and Islamic fundamentalism in North Africa. Rarely do they imagine that the greatest dangers to the new Europe may come from within, that the kind of stability Europe has enjoyed since World War II could be merely a passing chapter in history, not a transcendence of history. Without suggesting that there is necessarily a worst case ending, this study will argue that there is indeed a series of crises converging on post-Cold War Europe that threaten its stability and that need to be addressed by European policy makers and taken into account by Americans.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, War
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, North Africa
  • Author: Mark Roberts
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: In her book, States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China (1979), revolutionary authority and sociologist Theda Skocpol states: The repressive state organizations of the prerevolutionary regime have to be weakened before mass revolutionary action can succeed, or even emerge. Indeed, historically, mass rebellious action has not been able, in itself, to overcome state repression. Instead, military pressures from abroad … have been necessary to undermine repression.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Religion
  • Political Geography: Russia, China, Middle East, France
  • Author: M.E. Ahrari, James Beal
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The dismantlement of the Soviet Union also brought about the liberation of six Central Asian Muslim republics—Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan (figure 1). Although Azerbaijan is part of the Caucasus region, it is included in this study because: The independence of that country, like that of the Central Asian states, was brought about as a result of the dismantlement of the Soviet Union. Azerbaijan, like its Central Asian counterparts, is a Muslim state, and faces similar politico-economic problems. Azerbaijan's conflict with Armenia involving Nagorno-Karabkh reminds one of a number of conflicts in the Central Asian region. These include a seething ethnic conflict in Kazakhstan (involving the Khazaks and the Slavs), the ongoing civil war in Tajikistan "along ethnic, national, and religious lines (since the Russian forces are "also involved in this civil war), and the ethnic conflict in the Fargana valley that cuts across the borders of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Like the economies of its Central Asian neighbors, the Azeri economy was largely dependent on the economy of the former Soviet Union. Consequently, like its other neighbors, Azerbaijan is also busy establishing economic self-sufficiency, along with strengthening its religious political, linguistic, and ethnic identities.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Religion
  • Political Geography: Central Asia, Middle East, Soviet Union
  • Author: S. Neil MacFarlane, Larry Minear, Stephen D. Shenfield
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: This is a study of the world's response to internal armed conflicts in the Republic of Georgia. The principal features of that response on the humanitarian side were the delivery of emergency assistance and the protection of human rights. That response also included the establishment of peacekeeping operations, both by the Commonwealth of Independent States, with the United Nations' blessing, and by the United Nations itself. This report assesses the performance and effectiveness of humanitarian and peacekeeping activities and reviews the interaction between the two.
  • Topic: Peacekeeping
  • Political Geography: Georgia