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  • Author: Carolien van Ham, Brigitte Seim
  • Publication Date: 09-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
  • Abstract: Under what conditions do elections lead to democratization or conversely, sustain authoritarianism? State capacity may be a crucial intervening variable affecting the democratizing power of elections in authoritarian regimes. In regimes with limited state capacity, manipulating elections, co-opting elites, and repressing opposition is more difficult than in regimes with more extensive state capacity, rendering turnover in elections more likely in weak states. Yet, while increasing the chances of turnover, if the new incumbent has limited capacity to deliver public services and make policy changes after coming to power, democratic change is unlikely to be sustainable. Hence, state capacity may be a double-edged sword. This paper tests these expectations using Varieties of Democracy data for 460 elections in 110 authoritarian regimes from 1974 to 2012, and finds that state capacity is negatively associated with incumbent turnover but positively associated with democratic change after incumbent turnover in electoral authoritarian regimes.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Stephen Lloyd Wilson
  • Publication Date: 06-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
  • Abstract: How does the Internet affect authoritarian regimes? This article argues that while the Internet has made mass mobilization easier than ever, its spread has also counter-intuitively allowed savvy authoritarian regimes to become more stable than ever. For the population, higher technical literacy means a demonstrable decrease in transaction costs and thus a greater incidence of collective action. However, higher regime technical literacy gives authoritarians the capacity to monitor their populations and solve the dictator’s information problem, thus keeping their populations satisfied without needing to liberalize. The article compiles a new and original data set of measures of technical literacy across all states since the year 2000, and used a factor analysis approach to construct latent measures of population and regime technical literacy for all country-years. A large-n, cross-country empirical approach finds strong evidence of the theorized relationship between technical literacy and revolution.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Marcus Tannenberg
  • Publication Date: 06-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
  • Abstract: Because of the perceived risk of repression some survey questions are likely sensitive in more autocratic countries while less so in more democratic countries. Yet, survey data on potentially sensitive topics are frequently used in comparative research despite concerns about comparability. In a novel approach to test the comparability of politically sensitive questions I employ a multilevel-analysis with more than 80 000 respondents in 36 African countries to test for systematic bias when the survey respondents believe (fear) that the government has commissioned the survey, as opposed to an independent research institute. The findings indicate that fear of the government induces a substantial and significant bias on questions regarding the citizen-state relationship in more autocratic countries, but not in more democratic countries. This has practical implications for the comparative use of survey data.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Fernando Bizzarro, Allen Hicken, Dari Self
  • Publication Date: 06-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
  • Abstract: Because levels of party institutionalization may affect the availability of good data, existing datasets have limited reliability and coverage. To overcome these problems, we introduce the V-Dem Party Institutionalization Index, the first global country-level index on the issue. It covers – as of May 2017 – 173 countries for 116 years (1900-2016). Its geographical coverage, timespan, and conceptual reach are larger than any existing alternative. We offer an additive index that measures the scope and depth of party institutionalization in a country every year. Scope is measured by the proportion of parties that reach a threshold of minimal institutionalization, while the linkages party establish with the masses and the elites define the depth. Exploring a set of well-known cases, we show that: the index has extensive face validity, is consistent across regime types, and is comparable to other established indicators of institutionalization.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Anna Lührmann, Staffan I. Lindberg, Marcus Tannenberg
  • Publication Date: 05-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
  • Abstract: Classifying political regimes has never been as difficult as in this day and age. Most regimes in the world now hold de-jure multiparty elections with universal suffrage. Yet, in some countries these elections ensure that political rulers are – at least somewhat – accountable to the electorate whereas in others they are a mere window dressing exercise for authoritarian politics. Hence, regime types need to be distinguished based on the de-facto implementation of democratic rules. To this end, researchers increasingly turn to expert-coded data sets such as the new Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset. Using V-Dem data, we propose an operationalization of four important regime types – closed and electoral autocracies; electoral and liberal democracies – with vast coverage (almost all countries form 1900 to 2016) and precision. Our new Regimes in the World (RIW) measure includes uncertainty estimates to identify countries in the grey zone between regime types and account for inter-coder disagreement. In cases of disagreement with other datasets (7-12% of the cases), we classify regimes with severe electoral manipulation and infringements of the political freedoms more frequently as electoral autocracies than other datasets, which suggests that our measure captures the opaqueness of contemporary autocracies better.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Anna Lührmann, Kyle L Marquardt, Valeriya Mechkova
  • Publication Date: 04-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
  • Abstract: Accountability - constraints on the government’s use of political power - is one of the cornerstones of good governance. However, conceptual stretching and a lack of reliable measures have limited cross-national research and comparisons regarding the role of both accountability writ large and its different sub-types. To address this research gap, we use the V-Dem dataset and Bayesian statistical models to develop new ways to conceptualize and measure accountability and its core dimensions. We provide indices capturing the extent to which governments are accountable to citizens (vertical accountability), other state institutions (horizontal accountability) and the media and civil society (diagonal accountability), as well as an aggregate index that incorporates the three sub-types. These indices cover virtually all countries from 1900 to today. We demonstrate the validity of our new measures by analyzing trends from key countries, as well as by demonstrating that the measures are positively related to development outcomes such as health and education.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Michael Coppedge
  • Publication Date: 04-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
  • Abstract: For policymakers, activists, academics, and citizens around the world the conceptualization and measurement of democracy matters. The needs of democracy promoters and social scientists are convergent. We all need better ways to measure democracy. In the first section of this document we critically review the field of democracy indices. It is important to emphasize that problems identified with extant indices are not easily solved, and some of the issues we raise vis-à-vis other projects might also be raised in the context of the V-Dem project. Measuring an abstract and contested concept such as democracy is hard and some problems of conceptualization and measurement may never be solved definitively. In the second section we discuss in general terms how the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project differs from extant indices and how the novel approach taken by V-Dem might assist the work of activists, professionals, and scholars.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Haakon Gjerlow, Carl Henrik Knutsen
  • Publication Date: 04-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
  • Abstract: Political leaders often have private incentives to pursue expensive and socially wasteful "white elephant" projects. Our argument highlights that weak accountability mechanisms allow autocratic leaders to more easily realize such projects, whereas democratic leaders are more constrained from doing so. We subsequently test different implications from this argument by drawing on a global dataset recording various features of skyscrapers, a prominent type of modern white elephant. We find that autocracies systematically build more new skyscrapers than democracies, and this result is robust to controlling for income level, state control over the economy, and country- and year-fixed effects. Further, autocratic skyscrapers are more excessive and wasteful than democratic. Autocratic regimes also pursue skyscraper projects no matter if they preside over rural or urban societies. In contrast, skyscrapers are fewer and - when first built - associated with less waste in democracies, and they are more frequently built urbanized democracies than in rural.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Kelly McMann
  • Publication Date: 03-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
  • Abstract: Theory predicts democracy should reduce corruption. Yet, numerous scholars have found empirically that corruption decreases at high levels of democracy but actually increases at low levels. A key weaknesses of studies that aim to explain this inverted curvilinear relationship, however, is that they do not disaggregate the complex concept of democracy. By contrast, this working paper disaggregates democracy theoretically and empirically. Our theoretical framework shows how components of democracy affect costs and benefits of engaging in corruption and, therefore, the level of corruption overall. Whereas other studies examine only how democratic accountability imposes costs on those engaging in corruption and thus illuminate only the downward curve of the relationship, we also examine the transaction costs and political support benefits of corruption and therefore can explain the initial uptick in corruption at low levels of democracy. Using measures of democratic components from Varieties of Democracy, we examine 173 countries from 1900 to 2012 and find that freedoms of expression and association exhibit the inverted curvilinear relationship with corruption, and that judicial constraints have a negative linear relationship. Moreover, the introduction of elections and the quality of elections act jointly, but each in a linear fashion. The mere introduction of elections increases corruption, thus accounting for the upward sloping segment of the inverted curve. Once the quality of elections be
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, David Altman
  • Publication Date: 03-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
  • Abstract: Economic growth has become one of the leitmotivs academicians and pundits ask once and again to assess democratic endurance over time. While large portion of the literature posits that economic growth is positive for democracy (eg. Przeworski et al. 2000), for other scholars it is a profoundly destabilizing force (eg. Olson 1963; Huntington 1968). This paper fills these contrasting views asking whether economic growth can undermine democratic competition. We hypothesize that the relation between economic growth and party competition is mediated by the strength of political institutions and free expression. Economic growth promotes incumbency advantage. Rulers can artificially extend this advantage by narrowing the space for negative coverage and dissident voices as long as they have political room for maneuvering. We leverage exogenously-driven growth in Latin America to test this argument. Over the past two decades, the region experienced accelerated growth as a result of a global commodity boom. Using data for 18 Latin American countries during this period, we show that faster economic growth led to significant increases in incumbency advantage in the legislature only where free speech was under attack. Our findings have important implications for literatures on democratization, natural resources, and economic voting.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Kyle L Marquardt, Daniel Pemstein
  • Publication Date: 01-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
  • Abstract: Data sets quantifying phenomena of social-scientific interest often use multiple experts to code latent concepts. While it remains standard practice to report the average score across experts, experts likely vary in both their expertise and their interpretation of question scales. As a result, the mean may be an inaccurate statistic. Item-response theory (IRT) models provide an intuitive method for taking these forms of expert disagreement into account when aggregating ordinal ratings produced by experts, but they have rarely been applied to cross- national expert-coded panel data. In this article, we investigate the utility of IRT models for aggregating expert-coded data by comparing the performance of various IRT models to the standard practice of reporting average expert codes, using both real and simulated data. Specifically, we use expert-coded cross-national panel data from the V–Dem data set to both conduct real-data comparisons and inform ecologically-motivated simulation studies. We find that IRT approaches outperform simple averages when experts vary in reliability and exhibit differential item functioning (DIF). IRT models are also generally robust even in the absence of simulated DIF or varying expert reliability. Our findings suggest that producers of cross-national data sets should adopt IRT techniques to aggregate expert-coded data of latent concepts.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Anna Lührmann, Kelly McMann, Carolien van Ham
  • Publication Date: 01-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
  • Abstract: Large-N studies suggest that democracy aid is effective, while multiple small-N investigations call such findings into question. This paper accounts for this contradiction and significantly improves our understanding of democracy aid effectiveness by disaggregating democracy aid into specific types and examining effectiveness in different regime types. We argue that a specific type of aid is more likely to be effective when the aid does not pose a threat to regime survival and when the aid matches the particular democratic deficits in a country. Analysis of OECD aid and Varieties of Democracy data for 119 countries from 2002-2012 supports our argument.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Joseph E. Aldy
  • Publication Date: 10-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: This paper examines the choice between—and design of—CO2 cap-and-trade and tax policies through a political-economy lens. It draws from insights in economics and political economy to highlight important public policy principles and policy options in carbon-pricing policy design. The paper illustrates each of these insights with examples from cap-and-trade and tax-policy experiences. Revealed political preferences about carbon-pricing-policy design can, in practice, inform our understanding of how decision-makers weigh various policy principles, as well as policy objectives. The balance of the paper examines the following design choices: establishing and phasing-in policy targets; setting the point of compliance and scope of coverage; addressing uncertainties in emission and cost outcomes under carbon pricing; updating carbon-pricing targets over time; using revenue and other forms of economic value created by carbon pricing; mitigating adverse competitiveness impacts of pricing carbon; accounting for the existing, complex policy landscape in designing carbon pricing; and linking of carbon-pricing programs. The final section concludes with a discussion of policy implications and next steps for policy-relevant scholarship.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, Climate Finance, Global Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Stig Jarle Hansen, Mohamed Husein Gaas, Ida Bary
  • Publication Date: 09-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Although it may seem that the Muslim Brotherhood has weakened since the onset of the "Arab Winter" in 2013 and onward, organizations with their origins in the Brotherhood still have access to power in countries as diverse as Somalia, Bahrain, Morocco, and Yemen, and might regain power in other countries as well. Most Brotherhood-affiliated movements are committed to some form of democracy, unlike many of their rivals in the Middle East. Even the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have sought allies among Brotherhood affiliates, despite banning a majority of affiliated organizations.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
  • Abstract: Every year the World Association of Investment Promotion Agencies (WAIPA) surveys its members. This survey, conducted in 2017, polled over 90 agencies on numerous aspect
  • Topic: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Benjamin Tallis, Michal Šimečka
  • Publication Date: 07-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute of International Relations Prague
  • Abstract: The discussion paper by Benjamin Tallis and Michal Šimečka, senior researchers at the Institute of International Relations, provides a (critical) reflection on hybrid warfare – as both a concept and a practice – in the context of collective security in Europe, and discusses the role of the institutions and policies of NATO, the EU, and Member States.
  • Topic: International Affairs, Military Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Panpan Yang, Bing Han
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for World Economics and Politics
  • Abstract: Responsible research and innovation (RRI) represents a new evolving approach to governing research and innovation that takes into account potential impacts on the environment and society. Most published studies on RRI focus on the social benefits of research and innovation through examining RRI’s definitions and approaches for its implementation. In contrast, the present study addresses the influence of RRI on economic growth, and discusses the situations in which RRI will benefit economies. Our study finds that for its implementation to be successful, RRI needs to meet certain conditions, and that its implementation is not always beneficial to economic growth. To achieve a better result from RRI as part of an innovation policy, each country should balance the push and pull power of RRI to make sure that it becomes a building block rather than a stumbling block for innovation, economic growth and social welfare. To assure that RRI can be successfully implemented, China needs to strengthen and improve the participation mechanisms for stakeholders in major scientific and technological innovative activities.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: China
  • Author: Liu Dongmin
  • Publication Date: 01-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for World Economics and Politics
  • Abstract: The Chinese government seeks a more prominent role for China’s currency, the renminbi, in the international financial system. Its efforts to establish the renminbi as an international currency – like the US dollar – have hitherto emphasized relatively limited applications such as trade settlement and exchange rate arbitrage. However, recent market and policy developments point to the internationalization process henceforth being driven more by the renminbi’s status as a reserve currency
  • Topic: International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: China
  • Author: Mohsen Shariatinia, Hamidreza Azizi
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for World Economics and Politics
  • Abstract: Iran served as a bridge in the ancient Silk Road, connecting the East and the West. It also has great potential to play an important role in the new Silk Road. The present study analyzes the factors affecting Iran–China cooperation in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative at the strategic and operational levels. This article shows that, at the strategic level, Iran defines this project as an opportunity to improve its status in the world economy, expanding its room to manoeuvre in the international arena and developing its ties with China, a rising great power. At the operational level, the opportunities and challenges for Iran–China cooperation could be summarized as pertaining to five realms within the Silk Road Economic Belt Initiative: policy coordination, facilitation of connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration and people-to-people bonds. The present study asserts that the main opportunity for cooperation between the two countries lies in facilitating connectivity and that the key challenge is financial integration.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: China, Iran
  • Author: Ivan Timofeev
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for World Economics and Politics
  • Abstract: The article aims to highlight Russian approaches to Chinese One Belt-One Road initiative. It examines possible opportunities and challenges for co-development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Belt project. Both projects and their co-development may reduce the uncertainty in Eurasia, caused by significant structural changes in international relations and the world economy, the emergence of new trade regimes and the erosion of leadership in international affairs. Russian interests in this regard are determined by the need for modernization and long-term development, which could also help to address acute security issues. These particular factors encouraged Russia to come up with an ambitious plan of the Extensive Eurasian Partnership, although the prospects of its implementation currently are uncertain. The present article argues that the success of Russia-China collaboration in Eurasia will depend crucially on the future dynamics of the Eurasian integration, as well as on the agreement to co-develop the Eurasian Economic Union and the Belt Initiative with concrete and mutually beneficial projects.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Giuseppe Gabusi
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for World Economics and Politics
  • Abstract: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is, above all, a connectivity project. As connectivity requires financial support, in the past few years China has undertaken several institution-building activities at the national and international level, mainly in the financial and economic sector, showing a new propensity to influence global economic governance. In particular, the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has drawn attention worldwide. How does this institution building process connect with BRI? Are these institutions just a vehicle for exporting China’s capital and overcapacity, or do they signal a potential wider challenge to the post-World War II liberal international order? By analyzing the first loans approved by the bank, the present paper argues that far from representing a China-led challenge to the Western-led liberal order, the AIIB, while promoting Chinese commercial and geopolitical interests, shows the resilience of the global financial regime created by the West.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Giovanni Andornino
  • Publication Date: 10-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for World Economics and Politics
  • Abstract: As Chinese leaders endeavor to maintain the international environment aligned with their strategic aim of realizing the “dream of national rejuvenation,” the remarkable increase in China’s capabilities, coupled with uncertainty in the global economy and the ambivalent attitude of the USA toward the international order, poses fresh challenges to Beijing’s foreign policy. The present paper argues that a lexicographic preference for the mitigation of the risk of pushback against China’s core interests underpins the Belt and Road Initiative. Pursuing a strategy of credible reassurance commensurate to the shift in the distribution of power in China’s neighborhood and globally, President Xi Jinping’s administration has been cultivating a form of connective leadership that commits China to the encapsulation of the Belt and Road Initiative for transregional connectivity into its own national development strategy, generating an octroyé, non-hegemonic, type of international social capital, and integrating the existing order without corroborating the position of its founder
  • Topic: International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: China
  • Author: Anastas Vangeli
  • Publication Date: 10-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for World Economics and Politics
  • Abstract: This paper provides an overview of China’s burgeoning relationship with Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China has rapidly expanded the extent of its interactions with CESEE since 2012, and this region has subsequently become one of the focal points of the BRI. The key feature of China’s engagement with CESEE is the devising of an experimental and innovative approach, demonstrated in the establishment of an institutional mechanism for cooperation with a particular group of 16 CESEE countries (16+1). The case of China–CESEE relations offers an insight into how, in the era of the BRI, China is complementing its economic approach with institution-building and policy coordination. The article concludes that as the BRI progresses, these tendencies will remain central to China’s relations with CESEE
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: China
  • Author: YUAN Zhengqing, SONG Xiaoqin
  • Publication Date: 10-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for World Economics and Politics
  • Abstract: The study of international norms is an important topic in the international politics. Western theories tend to emphasize the top-down instruction at the international level and learning at the state level, and empirical studies focus on the dissemination of Western norms to the rest of the world. Consequently, the role of non-Western countries is neglected in the process of norm dissemination. The dissemination of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence offers an excellent opportunity to examine the behaviors of non-Western countries. The Five Principles proposed by China was neither imposed forcibly upon other countries nor intended to educate others in a condescending manner with a so-called “civilized” standard. Instead, the Five Principles started to disseminate in the process of equal interactions with the neighboring countries with similar experiences in history. Gradually, it embedded itself into more international meetings and treaties through establishing diplomatic relations, convening international meetings, participating in international organizations and offering foreign aid and expanded from ideologically similar countries into ideologically divergent ones.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: China
  • Author: YUAN Zhengqing, Li Zhiyong, Zhufu Xiaofei
  • Publication Date: 07-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for World Economics and Politics
  • Abstract: The life cycle of international norms is not actually a process of emergence, diffusion and internalization. As is shown by the logic of argumentation and the relational logic of processoriented constructivism, the development of international norms may take another approach, one of origination, diffusion and remolding. Through dialogues on norms, discourse critique, self-remolding and other means, China has enriched the practice of remolding international human rights norms with a human rights theory centered on the right to survive and develop, thereby providing a new approach and new angle of vision that allows non-Western countries to break away from the monist approach of norm development.
  • Topic: Human Rights, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: China
  • Author: Jeffrey Gutman, Adie Tomer, Thomas J. Kane, Dev Patel, Ranjitha Shivaram
  • Publication Date: 08-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: Across the world, rapid urban growth offers enormous opportunity to those living in cities and suburbs. Urban residents tend to earn higher incomes than their rural peers, and enjoy the benefits of living in closer proximity to vital services and commerce. However, the same influx of people and economic activity also places enormous pressure on the built environment, straining existing transportation systems across the developed and developing world. In turn, residents and businesses increasingly struggle to reach one another, and they often place a premium on locating in neighborhoods with the greatest urban access. In other words, people want to live where it is easy to reach key destinations. This can drive up the price of land and contributes to a toxic mix of income inequality and spatial inequity.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Nathan Brown
  • Publication Date: 05-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: All Arab states have large, official Muslim religious establishments that give governments a major role in religious life. These establishments have developed differently, according to each state’s historical experience. Through them, the state has a say over religious education, mosques, and religious broadcasting—turning official religious institutions into potent policy tools. However, the complexity of the religious landscape means they are rarely mere regime mouthpieces and it can be difficult to steer them in a particular direction.
  • Topic: Islam, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Jatin Dua
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Much of the existing scholarship on the Somali peninsula is informed by territorialized assumptions focusing on pastoralism or overland trading. In this working paper Jaitin Dua, an anthropologist and assistant professor at the University of Michigan, proposes a ‘maritime’ view on the Somali economy that highlights the role of ships, ports and seas. Comparing the three port cities of Benderbeyla, Bosaso and Djibouti the author provides insights into the nexus between violent capture, regulation and sovereignty across the Somali territories. What emerges are different modes of port-making that are closely related to global circulation. By bringing the sea back into Somali studies and contemporary anthropology, Dua offers an innovative interpretation of state formation dynamics. This DIIS Working Paper is part of the GOVSEA PAPER SERIES (Governing Economic Hubs and Flows in Somali East Africa)
  • Topic: Corruption, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Somalia
  • Author: Katherine Turner
  • Publication Date: 09-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: Women’s representation in mediation remains persistently low despite normative commitments made to increase women’s roles in peace and security. There is a gap between the local peacebuilding work of women mediators and the representation of women in high-level peacemaking. Focusing exclusively on empowering women at the local level perpetuates a distinction between the “soft” work of peacebuilding conducted by women and the “hard” work of peacemaking that is the preserve of men. States and international organisations need to think more strategically about how to forge stronger links among local, national and international mediation practice. Greater clarity is needed on the definition of mediation and the distinction between mediation and advocacy. It is time to rethink the role and function of mediation in light of changing trends in conflict worldwide.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Tim Wegenast, Georg Strüver, Juliane Giesen
  • Publication Date: 10-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: Qualitative studies and media reports suggest that the presence of Chinese oil or mining companies generates resentments among local extractive communities due to low wages, poor working conditions, environmental degradation, the employment of foreign labour, and perceived racial discrimination. At the same time, Chinese investment in the extractive sector appears to enhance local infrastructure. So far, these claims have not been empirical‐ly tested in a systematic way. Relying on novel data on the control‐rights regimes of dia‐mond, gold, and copper mines and geo‐referenced information from Afrobarometer sur‐veys, this paper examines whether Chinese‐controlled mining promotes anti‐Chinese sen‐timents among the local populations of sub‐Saharan African countries. In addition, we test the effect of mining contractors’ nationality on socio‐economic indicators such as local employment rates and infrastructure levels. Our logistic regression analysis for the period 1997–2014 reveals that the effect of Chinese mining companies on African local develop‐ ment is ambiguous: while proximity to Chinese‐operated mines is associated with anti‐ Chinese sentiments and unemployment, populations living close to Chinese mining areas enjoy better infrastructure, such as paved roads or piped water. Multilevel mixed‐effects estimations using district‐level data from the Demographic Health Survey for 20 sub‐ Saharan countries corroborate these findings.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Chanchal Kumar Sharma
  • Publication Date: 10-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: This paper links the foreign economic engagement of India’s states with the literature on federalism, thereby contributing to an understanding of the political economy of FDI in‐flows in a parliamentary federal system. More specifically, it studies subnational governments’ international engagements to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and investigates whether the political affiliations of states’ chief ministers and parliamentarians determine the spatial distribution of FDI across the Indian states, correcting for the influence of per capita income, population density, urbanisation, infrastructure, policy regime, and human development. Although the central government plays no direct role in determining the state to which FDI goes, the centre–state relations in a federal structure play a role in creating perceptions about the relative political risk involved in different investment destinations. Employing multiple linear regressions to analyse time‐series (2000–2013) cross‐sectional (12 states) data using the panel procedure, the study finds that affiliated states attract relatively more FDI per capita in comparison to states ruled by opposition parties or coalition partners. However, some exceptions do result, primarily due to two phenomena: first, the presence of a strong state leadership and, second, the presence of a significant share of members of parliament belonging to the prime minister’s party in the non‐affiliated states. Further, states ruled by outside supporters have been most successful in attracting FDI inflows during the coalition period.  
  • Topic: International Political Economy, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Sören Scholvin
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: The second‐most powerful states in regional hierarchies – or “secondary powers” – can be expected to contest against hegemons. In this paper, I assess the power that secondary powers in sub‐Saharan Africa wield vis‐à‐vis South Africa and suggest that their intended and unintended contestation can be captured as hard balancing, soft balancing, rejection of followership, and disregard of leadership. Angola’s foreign policy is marked by a mix of these types of contestation and a recent shift towards soft balancing, which results from Angola’s increasing economic influence in some regional countries. Kenya might reject followership or even hard‐balance in economic affairs but has not done so yet. Nigerian– South African relations are characterised by a disregard of South African leadership, especially in security policy, and unintended economic soft balancing
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: South Africa
  • Author: Anika Oettler
  • Publication Date: 08-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: The legitimacy of transitional justice currently derives from the contribution it makes to the recognition of victims. Adding the aspect of authoritative power to ongoing debates on transitional justice, however, could significantly alter our views on recognition. Recognition is widely believed to be key to overcoming traumatic experiences. At the same time, however, it strengthens authoritative power. Seeking a more nuanced understanding of the recognition–power nexus, the paper provides a rough and critical account of various understandings of recognition and power on the part of authors such as Honneth, Fraser, Bertram and Celikates, Ikäheimo, Arendt, Foucault, Popitz, and Bourdieu. It then examines how these theoretical approaches intersect and speak to each other. To see recognition as a reciprocal interaction sensitive to power relations is to pave the way for a power‐sensitive turn in current debates on victim‐centred transitional justice. Multidirectional relationships of power exist, with varying forms of coercion, resistance, and struggle. This insight corresponds with the observation, seen from the other perspective, that truth and recognition are inside power. Placing theoretical approaches to power and recognition side by side has strong implications for politics. The paper therefore applies these theoretical insights to the Colombian peace process, showing the potential and pitfalls of putting recognition into practice.
  • Topic: International Affairs, Political Power Sharing
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Simone Schotte
  • Publication Date: 06-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: Beyond the hopes placed in Africa’s emergent middle class as an engine of economic growth, some analysts see this group as a bastion of political stability and enduring democratisation across the continent. This paper’s approach differs from that of most studies, which treat the middle class as a homogeneous group, through two key contributions. First, using cluster analysis, I propose a novel way of conceptualising social class that broadly draws on the Weberian idea of shared life chances. I apply this method to South Africa and identify five social classes characterised by their members’ living standards, overall life satisfaction, and self‐perceived upward mobility. Second, the empirical analysis reveals significant discrepancies in attitudes towards democracy between the downwardly and upwardly mobile strata of the middle class, which I term the “anxious” and the “climbers,” respectively. On the one hand, the “climbers” show the highest generic support for democracy as a form of government, whereas the “anxious” middle class displays feelings of resignation. On the other hand, I find indicative evidence of a status‐quo bias among the “climbers.” Rather than assuming a more demanding or critical stance in politics, they allow their political priorities to be at least partly shaped by an interest in securing and expanding attained living standards; being upwardly mobile is even associated with a higher tolerance for government attempts to constrain freedom of information, opinion, or expression.
  • Topic: International Affairs, Democracy
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Robert Kappel
  • Publication Date: 05-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: This paper deals with Germany’s new Africa policy. The Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) presented a new Africa concept in January 2017. The BMZ wants to counter the further marginalisation of Africa with inclusive and sustainable growth. Chancellor Angela Merkel will explain her new policy for Africa at the G20 summit in Hamburg in July 2017, in an attempt to gain the approval of the other G20 members for focused cooperation with Africa. The paper argues that it remains solely the duty of African states to take their development into their own hands. Cooperation can support this process, but it cannot assume what is each state’s individual responsibility.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Africa, Germany
  • Author: Muhammed Ammash
  • Publication Date: 02-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Political Trends Center
  • Abstract: An extended period of strained relations has finally ended with a series of lengthy negotiations.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: Selin Nasi
  • Publication Date: 01-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Political Trends Center
  • Abstract: Turkey Israel deal: A key to long term reconciliation ?
  • Topic: International Security, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Turkey, Israel
  • Author: Kristin McKie
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: Since presidential term limits were (re)adopted into many constitutions during the third wave of democratization, 207 presidents across Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia have reached the end of their terms in office. Of these, 30% have attempted to contravene term limits whereas 70% have stepped down in compliance with tenure rules. Furthermore, of the presidents who have attempted to alter tenure restrictions, some have succeeded in fully abolishing term limits, others have only managed a one-term extension, while a minority have failed in their bids to secure any additional terms in office. What explains these divergent trajectories? On the basis of a series of statistical analyses, I argue that trends in electoral competition over time are the best predictor of the range of term limit contravention outcomes across the board, with the least competitive elections permitting full term limit abolition and the most competitive elections saving off attempts at altering executive tenure rules. Furthermore, results show that failed contravention attempts are true borderline cases, rather than instances gross miscalculations of success by the president and her party, in that they feature less competitive elections than non-attempt cases but more competitive elections than successful contravention cases. These findings suggest a linkage between political uncertainty and constitutional stability more generally.
  • Topic: International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Derek Peterson
  • Publication Date: 09-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper is about the prosaic work that it took to constitute sites of memory in Idi Amin’s Uganda. Why, at a time when government and economy were so dysfunctional, at a time when tens of thousands of people were killed by the malevolent agents of state security, did earnest and high-minded men and women invest themselves in the project of cultural recovery? This paper focuses on an obscure bureaucrat, a man named John Tumusiime, who from 1972 to 1976 was the ‘Culture Officer’ of Kigezi, the southernmost district in Uganda. Men like Tumusiime thought themselves on the front lines of a globally consequential effort to revivify African culture. Even in the face of tremendous logistical difficulties, their commitment and ingenuity led them to seek out venues where the lessons of the past could be concretized, hard-coded in the collective lives of their people.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Uganda
  • Author: Mercedes Prieto
  • Publication Date: 06-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper examines the Andean Indigenist Program (AIP) sponsored by the International Labour Organization (ILO), other United Nations agencies, and the Andean states as a response to their need to administer rural Andean populations. The paper argues that development, as a globalized mode of administration of indigenous peoples, overlaps both the old national concerns about political integration of such peoples and the protection of indigenous workers advocated by the ILO. In this sense, development is a discourse with multiple layers; it is not merely a novel cultural artifact produced in the framework of the Cold War but a product of long global and national debates over the governance of indigenous peoples. At the same time, this convergence of integration, social protection, and development sparked concerns about indigenous women that guided actions to confine them as mothers in the home while also educating them and offering them a public role as subjects empowered to receive and reproduce locally the policies of the program and the national state—a process that was resisted and challenged by women themselves. The AIP is not only a product of global discourses but embodies interventions through discursive imagery and bureaucratic mechanisms installed in state apparatuses to foster social protection in rural areas. Its effectiveness as a mechanism for the administration of populations comes from an encounter between the economy and processes of self-subjection to the state through what came to be called “community development.”
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Ana Arjona
  • Publication Date: 06-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: War zones are usually portrayed as chaotic and anarchic. In irregular civil wars, however, they are often ordered. Furthermore, different forms of order often coexist in areas controlled by the same non-state armed group, where the behavior of both civilians and combatants vary substantially. What explains this variation? In this paper I present a theory of the creation of order in war zones that analyzes the behavior of non-state armed groups, the responses of local populations, and the effect of their interaction on wartime institutions. My central argument is that disorder emerges when armed groups have short time horizons, which usually happens when they fight for control with other warring sides or are undisciplined; under these conditions, they are unlikely to establish a social contract with the local population. When armed groups have a long time horizon, a social contract is established, giving place to a new order. In this new order, armed groups may intervene minimally or broadly in civilian affairs; their choice, I argue, depends on the likelihood of organized civilian resistance, which is, in turn, a function of the quality of pre-existing local institutions, especially those dealing with adjudication of disputes. I also present extensions of the theory that account for variation in the strategic value of territory, variation in local capacity for collective action, and armed groups’ information about local institutions.
  • Topic: International Affairs, Political Theory
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Mario Maggioni, Simona Beretta
  • Publication Date: 05-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper is about measuring if and how vulnerable persons’ choices and attitudes change when they undergo a significant modification in their lives, as they begin experiencing care and support within durable relationships in love-based communities. Although there is anecdotal evidence that love-based experiences produce a restorative and rehabilitative impact on vulnerable people’s lives, we still lack adequate empirical frameworks for measuring the transformative power of such experiences on individual choices and attitudes. This paper proposes an innovative methodology for measuring personal transformation. We use a mix of behavioral economics experiments, textual analysis, and validated psychological tests to perform a longitudinal analysis of individuals in love-based communities. Changes in behavioral parameters and qualitative answers, observed over a significant period of love-based “treatment,” provide empirical evidence of the transformative impact on deep behavioral traits and attitudes (altruism, gratitude, sincerity, trust). This methodology, which significantly innovates on existing behavioral experiments and on conventional longitudinal studies and field experiments, has been applied to three ongoing case studies of love-based treatment: 1) formerly addicted people living in Italian rehab communities; 2) Californian convicts attending Guiding Rage into Power (GRIP) programs; 3) vulnerable schoolchildren experiencing Distance Support in Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo. This paper is meant to present our methodology to researchers interested in human and social development, hoping to receive from them comments, suggestions, and possibly interest in a collaboration on other case studies.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Mathew Singer
  • Publication Date: 04-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Theories of democratic legitimacy argue that people who believe that the government is well managed and that the government represents their interests are likely to defend the democratic status quo. Principal-agent theory predicts, however, that these same groups are also more likely to support the executive taking steps to restrict free speech or opposition rights via delegative democracy. Citizens who feel represented by an ideologically sympathetic and competent executive may be willing to delegate to him or her authority to restrict the opposition, even at the expense of civil rights. Survey data from eighteen Latin American countries from 2006 to 2012 are consistent with the principal-agent hypothesis; those who voted for the ruling party in the previous election or who perceive that the economy is strong are more likely to favor restrictions on civil rights for regime opponents. Political winners are particularly likely to display low levels of tolerance for expressions of opposition in polarized party systems. Thus, for democracy to prosper, it must not only satisfy the losers of political and economic processes but also find ways to encourage winners to exercise restraint.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Democracy
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Olukunle P. Owolabi
  • Publication Date: 04-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper examines the impact of bifurcated colonial institutions—i.e. the use of distinctive legal codes for “native” vs. “settler” populations—for long-term development in 67 former British, French, and Portuguese colonies. Building on theoretical arguments by Mahmood Mamdani (1996) and Matthew Lange’s empirical research on the distinctive developmental legacies of direct vs. indirect British rule, I develop a new measure of legal-administrative bifurcation in French and Portuguese colonies. Consistent with Mamdani’s theoretical arguments, the statistical models in this paper demonstrate that bifurcated colonial institutions contributed to poor development outcomes and ineffective postcolonial governance among British, French, and Portuguese colonies alike. Regardless of the colonizing power, directly ruled colonies with a uniform and inclusive legal-administrative framework have better development outcomes than bifurcated colonial states that maintained distinctive “native” legal codes for indigenous populations. These results are robust to a variety of statistical controls, as well as to instrumental variable analysis, highlighting the enduring legacy of colonial institutions for human well-being and governmental effectiveness today.
  • Topic: Post Colonialism, Global Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Kristin Michelitch, Keith R Weghorst
  • Publication Date: 01-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Many characterize adherence to Islam as antithetical to women's political equality due to cross-national analyses showing a correlation between Muslim majority countries and higher gender inequality. Others argue that political, economic, and social contextual factors coinciding with religion confound the relationship. A third viewpoint holds that the meaning and salience of religion for women's political equality is fluid and endogenous to such contextual factors. We take a new empirical approach to address these questions by conducting analyses of gender attitudes within and across mixed Muslim-Christian countries in Africa. Consistent with the third viewpoint, we find that within-country gaps between Muslims and Christians are variable in size and direction. Such gaps are generally reduced through within-country matching, indicating at least partial confounding of religion on observable factors. While Muslims are generally more conservative than Christians, the impact of religion on attitudes is far less explanatory than country-level fixed effects and socioeconomic attributes such as gender. Religiosity increases egalitarianism for Christians but has no systematic effect for Muslims. Women of both religions are more egalitarian than men, and the effect of Islam is much larger for men than for women.
  • Topic: Islam, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: George Tsebelis
  • Publication Date: 01-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper analyzes the mechanisms that establish time consistency of constitutions. It explains why shorter and more locked constitutions are more likely to be time consistent (change less), whereas long constitutions are more time inconsistent (change more, despite locking). Empirical evidence from all the democratic countries in the world indicates that the length and locking of constitutions are not independent criteria and that their combination leads to less time consistency. To address this interrelationship, I develop a measure of time inconsistency (a combination of locking and amendment rate) and show that it is connected with the length of constitutions. I show how time inconsistency is incompatible with theories of “constitutional amendment culture” (Ginsburg and Melton 2015), not only at the theoretical level but also empirically. Finally, I demonstrate that the empirical findings of Tsebelis and Nardi (2016) that length of constitutions is related to lower per capita income and higher corruption are not only in agreement with time inconsistency arguments but are corroborated beyond OECD countries to all democracies.
  • Topic: International Organization
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Amb Alan Baker
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: Any genuine and serious peace negotiating plan for Israel and the Palestinians should naturally be seen as a welcome alternative to the present situation of impasse in the peace process. However, the American peace plan should not be overestimated or idealized by exaggerated media hype and political manipulation.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Jerusalem
  • Author: Michael Segall
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: Iran and Saudi Arabia, on the two sides of the Sunni-Shiite fault line, are trying to gain influence in reshaping the Middle East.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Jerusalem
  • Author: Ambassador Dore Gold
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: Today, I am not going to address the question of moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem directly. It is my view that President Donald Trump has made a commitment in that regard and I believe he will stand by what he has said. The United States will evaluate the timing and circumstances for executing that decision in accordance with its interests.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: Under the pretext of waging an anti-corruption campaign, King Salman of Saudi Arabia, in concert with his son Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (known as MBS), undertook one of the most dramatic moves in Saudi politics ever taken. They ordered the arrest of 11 royal princes, four former ministers, the chief of the Royal Navy, former heads of the Royal Cabinet, and scores of ex-officials and businessmen, including international financier Al-Waleed bin Talal.
  • Topic: International Security
  • Political Geography: Saudi Arabia