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12301. Côte D'ivoire : Garantir Un Processus Électoral Crédible

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
La Côte d'Ivoire reste sur la voie de la paix un an après la désignation du chef de l'ex-rébellion des Forces nouvelles (FN) Guillaume Soro au poste de Premier ministre par son adversaire d'alors, le président Laurent Gbagbo, mais on ne peut nullement exclure un retour à la violence. Tous les efforts doivent viser à créer les conditions politiques et sécuritaires pour des élections présidentielles et législatives qui, pour la première fois depuis le début du long proc essus de paix ivoirien, paraissent envisageables en moins d'un an. La convoitise du fauteuil présidentiel, pour lequel certains acteurs semblent prêts à tout, combinée à la présence de groupes armés et à l'impunité qui a pros péré au cours des dernières années, constituent un environnement potentiellement explosif. Le président du Burkina Faso, Blaise Compaoré, facilitateur et arbitre du processus de paix, ainsi que le Conseil de sécurité de l'ONU, doivent assumer leurs responsabilités pour préserver ce pays clé d'Afrique de l'ouest d'une grave rechute.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and Politics
Political Geography:
France

12302. Restoring Democracy in Bangladesh - Asia Report N°151

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bangladesh is under military rule again for the third time in as many decades. Although the caretaker government (CTG) insists its plans to stamp out corruption and hold general elections by December 2008 are on track, its achievements have been patchy, and relations with the major political parties are acrimonious. Efforts to sideline the two prime ministers of the post-1990 democratic period have faltered (though bot h are in jail), and the government has become bogged down in its attempts to clean up corruption and reshape democratic politics. Even if elections are held on schedule, there is no guarantee reforms will be sustainable. If they are delayed, the risk of confrontation between the parties and the army-backed government will grow. There is an urgent need for all sides to negotiate a peaceful and sustainable return to democracy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and Asia

12303. Through the Looking-Glass, and What OLS Found There: On Growth, Foreign Aid, and Reverse Causality

Author:
David Roodman
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The cross-country literature on foreign aid effectiveness has relied on the use of instruments to distinguish causality from mere correlation. This paper uses simple non-instrumental techniques in the spirit of Granger to demonstrate that the main aid-growth connection is a negative causal relationship from growth to aid—aid, that is, as a fraction of recipient GDP. Coarsely, when GDP goes up, aid/GDP goes down. The endogeneity of aid, long-suspected, is real. Less understood is that adding certain common controls to regressions puts this relationship through the looking-glass, flipping both its sign and apparent direction: aid seems to cause growth. Ideally, instrumentation expunges the endogeneity shown here. In practice, estimates of aid's impact have run into problems. Autocorrelation in the errors is widespread, and can render endogenous lagged variables used as regressors or instruments. The pitfalls of “difference” and “system” include invalidity and proliferation of instruments. Multicollinearity in term pairs of interest, such as aid and aid or “project” and “program” aid, can amplify endogeneity bias. The combination of specification problems and widespread fragility (shown in earlier work) leads to pessimism about the ability of cross-country econometrics to demonstrate aid effectiveness. This does not rule an average positive effect, nor does it contradict the fact that aid has saved millions of lives, but it does suggest that the average effect on economic growth is too small to be detected statistically.
Topic:
Economics, Humanitarian Aid, and International Political Economy

12304. Beyond the ABCs: Higher Education and Developing Countries

Author:
Megan Crowley and Devesh Kapur
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper analyzes a relatively neglected facet of the complex debate regarding human capital – higher (or tertiary) education. It addresses five broad questions examining higher education in developing countries. One, are the economic effects of higher education on developing countries different from those in industrialized countries, with its links with labor markets of lesser importance than its impact on institutional development? Two, how does the impact of higher education depend on the type of education and its beneficiaries? Three, with the state unable to meet growing demand pressures, what should be the proper role of the state to ensure not just quality but also equity and access? Four, how should countries rethink the provision of higher education in an “open economy” from seeking education abroad or encouraging foreign providers into the country or simply linking domestic institutions with foreign quality assurance mechanisms? And five, do new technologies offer developing countries a new paradigm to expand the provision of high quality but low cost higher education? The aim is not to provide categorical answers to these complex questions, but rather highlight the analytical and empirical lacuna with regard to each of these question.
Topic:
Development and Education
Political Geography:
Africa

12305. Crossroads at Mmamabula: Will the World Bank Choose the Clean Energy Path?

Author:
David Wheeler
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
At the recent UN climate change conference in Bali, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called for a revolutionary change in the world's energy mix to minimize the risk of catastrophic global heating. This paper explores the implications for the World Bank and other donor institutions, employing proposed Bank financing of the Mmamabula coal-fired power project in Botswana as an illustrative case. Using the latest estimates of generating costs for coal-fired and low-carbon power options, I compute the CO2 accounting charges that would promote switching to the low-carbon options. In all cases, I find that that the switching charges are at the low end of the range that is compatible with safe atmospheric limits on carbon loading. Among the low-carbon options that I have considered for Botswana, solar thermal power seems to dominate carbon capture and storage.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Markets, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa

12306. How Soon Can Donors Exit From Post-Conflict States?

Author:
Satish Chand and Ruth Coffman
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
When can a donor (successfully) exit from an on-the -ground presence in a post-conflict state? The answer, according to the analysis presented here, is in decades: figures well beyond what was originally envisioned when peacekeeping troops were first deployed. In the specific cases of Liberia, Mozambique, Solomon Islands, and Timor-Leste considered here, the best case scenario for successful exit ranges from 15 to 27 years. Successful exit, for the purposes of this paper, entails the creation of the necessary fiscal space to fund the recurrent budget from internally generated revenues. This is a necessary, albeit, not sufficient condition for donor exit. Of essence, however, is the time rather than the dollar value of support provided. An extended donor presence, it is argued, provides the space for the creation, sustenance, and maturation of institutions that are finally able to undergird the state from rolling back into state failure on donor exit.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, Liberia, Mozambique, Solomon Islands, and Timor-Leste

12307. Perspectives on access to and management of natural resources : A discussion of selected literature

Author:
Julie Koch
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Environmental degradation affects poor people's livelihoods and in efforts to secure a living poor people exploit natural resources in an unsustainable way – it is a vicious circle. This is what students used to be taught in development studies. Today we know that there is no such simple equation (Forsyth, Leach et al. 1998; Leach, Mearns et al. 1999; Ravnborg 2003; Easterly 2007). Adding to this, the concept of sustainable development – sought to capture the complex relationship between natural resources and poverty – is now by many thought to be too loose to be of much conceptual usefulness. 1 No other single concept has replaced it and natural resource studies and policy making today employ a variety of conceptual approaches, many of which are shared with other fields of study.
Topic:
Environment and Government

12308. 'These young men show no respect for local customs': Globalisation, youth and Islamic revival in Zanzibar

Author:
Simon Turner
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In recent years there has been a revival of Islam in Zanzibar, with heated debates about the nature of Islam and its role in society (Lodhi and Westerlund 1997, Gilsaa 2006). While Islam played a central role in society until independence in 1963, it was effectively removed from the public sphere by the socialist government after independence. Since the 1980s, however, Islam has again become a central issue in the public sphere, albeit in new forms. Like elsewhere in Africa, local forms of Islam are being challenged by a number of new reformist and revivalist kinds of Islam, influenced to some degree by a global Islamic revival, but shaped by the particular, local histories and politics. This has caused some friction – especially as the regime in place seeks to manipulate these tensions for political benefit. However, as it will be argued in this paper, the kind of Islamic revival taking place in Zanzibar is far from radical or violent. In fact, Islamic revivalists often coin their critique of the state in terms of human rights and good governance and provide an alternative modernity that at once challenges and articulates with secular, liberal forms of modernity. Hence, the present paper explores how global trends in Islam – but also global discourses on Human Rights and Good Governance – influence the current modes of Islamic revival in Zanzibar.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, Human Rights, and Islam
Political Geography:
Africa and Zanzibar

12309. Organised labour and the social regulation of global value chains

Author:
Lone Riisgaard and Nikolaus Hammer
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Since the 1980s, various processes of economic globalisation have eroded established foundations of organised labour. The increased mobility of goods and capital, compared to labour's relative immobility, has made it more difficult for labour to advance its objectives through traditional local industrial action or tripartite social contracts. In this paper, we are concerned with the social regulation of global value chains (GVCs) and more specifically the room for manoeuvre that organised labour has for advancing social regulation in different GVCs via Private Social Standards and/ or International Framework Agreements. We argue, that the governance structure (and restructuring) of GVCs frame key elements of the terrain that enables and constrains labour's strategic opportunities for advancing the social regulation of GVCs.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Non-Governmental Organization

12310. Sustainability standards and coffee exports from Tanzania

Author:
Freedy T. M. Kilima, Jeremiah Makindara, and Evelyne Lazaro
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
One of the key trends characterizing agro-food trade in the last two decades has been the increas-ing complexity of public and private standards that are applied to imports into developed countries. This paper aims to identify critical areas to facilitate compliance with sustainability standards in coffee, which is the major traditional export crop for Tanzania. Coffee experienced a dramatic downward trend in world market prices that led to a decreased contribution to foreign exchange earnings in producing countries in the early 2000s. Although prices have improved over the past few years, economies that are dependent on traditional agricultural exports such as coffee need strategies to ensure stability in export earnings. One of the possible venues for increased agricultural export value is through exports to niche markets, such as coffee that is certified against one or more sustainability certifications (e.g. Fair Trade, Utz Certified, Organic, and Rainforest Alliance).
Topic:
Agriculture, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

12311. The refugee, the sovereign and the sea : EU interdiction policies in the Mediterranean

Author:
Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper starts from the encounter between a European navy vessel and a dinghy carrying boat refugees and other desperate migrants across the Mediterranean or West African Sea towards Europe. It explores the growing trend in the EU of enacting migration control at the high seas or international waters – so-called interdiction. It is argued that these forms of extraterritorial migration control aim at reconquering the efficiency of the sovereign function to control migration, by trying to either deconstruct or shift correlate obligations vis-à-vis refugees and other persecuted persons to third States. In both instances, European States are entering into a sovereignty game, in which creative strategies are developed in order to reassert sovereign power unconstrained by national and international obligations.
Topic:
Human Welfare, International Law, Migration, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe and West Africa

12312. The europeanization of Europe : the transfer of norms to Europe, in Europe and from Europe

Author:
Trine Flockhart
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Europeanization is a concept predominantly concerned with the domestic impact of the EU whilst less concerned with its historical foundations and wider geographical reach. By forwarding a Historical Sociological conceptualization of Europeanization it is revealed that the concept suffers from fundamental problems relating to historical and geographical scope, to uncertainty about which causal relationships to explain, and that it is based on implicit but unsustainable assumptions. This article challenges the assumption that Europeanization is based on ideas endogenous to Europe and is an activity preserved for Europeans. It suggests that 'Europeanization' can be conceptualized as several social processes involving different agents, structures, processes and conceptions of 'self' and 'other', and that Europeans have been more on the receiving end of ideational diffusion than promoters of a European norm set. By employing a Historical Sociological perspective it is revealed that before Europeans could 'Europeanize' either in or from Europe, they not only had to develop a European identity through a process of ideational diffusion to Europe, but the idea set which is today regarded as 'European' was diffused from the United States and stands in complete contrast to ideas previously also regarded as European.
Topic:
Civil Society and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

12313. Studying violent radicalization in Europe I : the potential contribution of social movement theory

Author:
Anja Dalgaard-Nielsen
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Why do some apparently well-integrated youth in Europe become attracted to Islamist militancy? Why and when do people cross from violent talk to violent action? What prevents others, exposed to the same political, ideological, and socioeconomic influences, from crossing? When and how might people de-radicalize and draw back from violent action? What policy initiatives would be called for to limit the spread of radical ideas, counter the factors that spur violent radicalization, and strengthen those, which pull in the other direction? In sum: When, why, and how do people living in a democracy become radicalized to the point of being willing to use or directly support the use of terrorist violence against civilians, and what can be done about it?
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil Society, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

12314. Studying violent radicalization in Europe II: The potential contribution of socio-psychological and psychological approaches

Author:
Anja Dalgaard-Nielsen
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Why do some apparently well-integrated youth in Europe become attracted to Islamist militancy? Why and when do people cross from violent talk to violent action? What prevents others, exposed to the same political, ideological, and socioeconomic influences, from crossing? When and how might people de-radicalize and draw back from violent action? What policy initiatives would be called for to limit the spread of radical ideas, counter the factors that spur violent radicalization, and strengthen those, which pull in the other direction? In sum: When, why, and how do people living in a democracy become radicalized to the point of being willing to use or directly support the use of terrorist violence against civilians, and what can be done about it?
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil Society, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

12315. Structural Stability: On the Prerequisites of Nonviolent Conflict Management

Author:
Andreas Mehler, Lena Giesbert, Jenny Kuhlmann, Christian von Soest, and Ulf Engel
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The concept of “structural stability” has been gaining prominence in development policy circles. In the EU's and the OECD Development Assistance Committee's (OECD DAC) understanding, it describes the ability of societies to handle intra-societal conflict without resorting to violence. This study investigates the preconditions of structural stability and tests their mutual interconnections. Seven dimensions are analyzed: (1) long-term economic growth, (2) environmental security, (3) social equality, (4) governmental effectiveness, (5) democracy, (6) rule of law, and (7) inclusion of identity groups. The postulated mutual enhancement of the seven dimensions is plausible but cannot be proven. The most significant positive relationship appears between “democracy” and “rule of law,” respectively, on the one hand and the dependent variable “violence/ human security” on the other hand. This points to the usefulness of the political concept of structural stability to promote development policy agendas in this area at least. Applications that reach beyond these initial findings will, however, require further research.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, and International Political Economy

12316. Will the Real Serbia Please Stand Up?

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kosovo's independence declaration on 17 February 2008 sent shock waves through Serbia's politics and society, polarising the former in a manner not seen since the Milosevic era. Rio ting led to attacks on nine Western embassies, destruction of foreign property and massive looting. The government fell on 10 March, split over whether to pursue a nationalist or pro-Western path. Belgrade's efforts to create a de facto partitioning of the north of Kosovo threaten the new state's territorial integrity and challenge deployment of European Union (EU) missions there, and Serbian parliamentary and local elections on 11 May are unlikely to change the basic policy towards the new state, even in the unlikely event a pro-Western government comes to power. They may, however, well give Serbia's nationalist parties new leverage.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Nationalism, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

12317. Constitutional Court and the Closure of Political Parties in Turkey

Author:
Yusuf Sevki Hakyemez
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
This policy brief aims to discuss the limits of the freedom of political parties in Turkey. The political party bans consitute one of the most important problems threatening the freedom of political parties in Turkey. The restrictions on the political parties come to the fore in two different forms: dissolution after the military coups and closure by means of legislation. In the current context of the case opened against the AK Party, it may be possible and advisable to apply an amendment, bringing Turkish jurisprudence in such matters in line with the standards of the European community.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

12318. Iraq after the Surge I: The New Sunni Landscape

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Against the odds, the U.S. military surge contributed to a significant reduction in violence. Its achievements should not be understated. But in the absence of the fundamental political changes in Iraq the surge was meant to facilitate, its successes will remain insufficient, fragile and reversible. The ever-more relative lull is an opportunity for the U.S. to focus on two missing ingredients: pressuring the Iraqi government to take long overdue steps toward political compromise and altering the regional climate so that Iraq's neighbours use their leverage to encourage that compromise and make it stick. As shown in these two companion reports, this entails ceasing to provide the Iraqi government with unconditional military support; reaching out to what remains of the insurgency; using its leverage to encourage free and fair provincial elections and progress toward a broad national dialogue and compact; and engaging in real diplomacy with all Iraq's neighbours, Iran and Syria included.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

12319. Iraq after the Surge II: The Need for a New Political Strategy

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Against the odds, the U.S. military surge contributed to a significant reduction in violence. Its achievements should not be understated. But in the absence of the fundamental political changes in Iraq the surge was meant to facilitate, its successes will remain insufficient, fragile and reversible. The ever-more relative lull is an opportunity for the U.S. to focus on two missing ingredients: pressuring the Iraqi government to take long overdue steps toward political compromise and altering the regional climate so that Iraq's neighbours use their leverage to encourage that compromise and make it stick. As shown in these two companion reports, this entails ceasing to provide the Iraqi government with unconditional military support; reaching out to what remains of the insurgency; using its leverage to encourage free and fair provincial elections and progress toward a broad national dialogue and compact; and engaging in real diplomacy with all Iraq's neighbours, Iran and Syria included.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

12320. Colombia: Making Military Progress Pay Off

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Almost six years of intense security operations against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) by the administration of President Álvaro Uribe are beginning to produce tangible results. Government forces killed several important rebel field commanders in 2007 and two members of the central command in March 2008, including second-in-command Raúl Reyes, and have severely disrupted insurgent communications, prompting a loss of internal cohesion and decreasing illegal revenues. However, this progress has come at the cost of severely deteriorating relations with Ecuador and Venezuela and increased risk of political isolation after the controversial bombing raid on Reyes's camp inside Ecuador. Military gains can pay off only if combined with a political strategy that consistently pursues a swap of imprisoned insurgents for hostages in FARC captivity, reestablishes much needed working relations with neighbours along borders and strongly advances integrated rural development to consolidate security and broaden Colombia's international support.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Colombia, Latin America, Central America, and Venezuela

12321. Will the Real Serbia Please Stand Up?

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kosovo's independence declaration on 17 February 2008 sent shock waves through Serbia's politics and society, polarising the former in a manner not seen since the Milosevic era. Rioting led to attacks on nine Western embassies, destruction of foreign property and massive looting. The government fell on 10 March, split over whether to pursue a nationalist or pro-Western path. Belgrade's efforts to create a de facto partitioning of the north of Kosovo threaten the new state's territorial integrity and challenge deployment of European Union (EU) missions there, and Serbian parliamentary and local elections on 11 May are unlikely to change the basic policy towards the new state, even in the unlikely event a pro-Western government comes to power. They may, however, well give Serbia's nationalist parties new leverage.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Nationalism, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

12322. Congo: Four Priorities for Sustainable Peace in Ituri

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le risque d'une reprise des violences en Ituri est aujourd'hui limité du fait de la présence de la Mission des Nations unies (MONUC), du démantèlement de la plupart des groupes armés et de la lassitude de la population après des années de souffrance et de destructions. Cependant, les problèmes de fond à l'origine des violences extrêmes qu'a connu le district pendant la guerre – un accès équitable à la terre et une gestion transparente des revenus issus de l'exploitation des ressources naturelles et minières – restent entiers. L'absence de réconciliation intercommunautaire et l'impunité pour la grande majorité des crimes commis pendant la guerre sont également extrêmement inquiétants en perspective d'élections locales en 2009. Afin d'éviter toute reprise de la violence, dont les femmes seraient les premières à souffrir, les éléments fondamentaux d'une paix durable doivent être urgemment mis en place dans le cadre d'une stratégie intégrée impliquant les institutions nationales et provinciales avec le soutien actif de la MONUC et des bailleurs de fonds du Congo.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil War, Human Rights, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

12323. Negotiating Zimbabwe's Transition

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 29 March 2008 elections have dramatically changed Zimbabwe's political landscape. For the first time since independence in 1980, Robert Mugabe ran second in the presidential voting, and the opposition – the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) – won control of parliament. The MDC went to the polls deeply divided, but Morgan Tsvangirai and his party regained their authority by winning despite an uneven playing field. Instead of allowing democracy to run its course, Mugabe has fought back by withholding the presidential results for five weeks and launching a countrywide crackdown. Zimbabwe is in constitutional limbo: it has no elected president or legally constituted cabinet, parliament has not been convened, and ZANU-PF and the MDC are challenging half the parliamentary results in court. African leaders, with support from the wider international community, must step in to stop the violence and resolve the deepening political crisis, ideally by facilitating an agreement establishing an MDC-led transitional government that avoids the need for the run-off now scheduled for 27 June.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

12324. Developing a Contextually Relevant Concept of Regional Hegemony: The Case of South Africa, Zimbabwe and "Quiet Diplomacy"

Author:
Miriam Prys
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
South Africa's “quiet diplomacy” has been often used to reject the notion of South African leadership or regional hegemony in southern Africa. This article finds that this evaluation is founded on a misguided understanding of regional hegemony, which is based on conventional hegemony theories that are mostly derived from the global role of the United States after World War II. Alternatively, this article uses a concept of hegemony that, for example, takes into account the “regionality” of South Africa's hegemony, which both allows external actors to impact on regional relations and allows South Africa to pursue its foreign policy goals on the global level of international politics. This concept helps to systemically analyze South Africa's foreign policy in the Zimbabwean crisis and to better integrate this policy into the broader framework of its regional and global ambitions.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

12325. The Philippines: Counter-insurgency vs. Counter-terrorism in Mindanao

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
U.S.-backed security operations in the southern Philippines are making progress but are also confusing counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency with dangerous implications for conflict in the region. The “Mindanao Model” – using classic counter-insurgency techniques to achieve counter-terror goals – has been directed against the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and has helped force its fighters out of their traditional stronghold on Basilan. But it runs the risk of pushing them into the arms of the broader insurgencies in Mindanao, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). The U.S. and the Philippines need to revive mechanisms to keep these conflicts apart and refocus energies on peace processes with these groups. That imperative has become particularly acute since the Malaysian government announced withdrawal, beginning on 10 May, from the International Monitoring Team (IMT) that has helped keep a lid on conflict since 2004. If renewed attention to a peace agreement is not forthcoming by the time the IMT mandate ends in August, hostilities could quickly resume.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and Philippines

12326. Sectarian Identities or Geopolitics? The Regional Shia-Sunni Divide in the Middle East

Author:
Mari Luomi
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The purpose of this study is to enhance understanding of the new geopolitical situation currently unfolding in Middle Eastern politics that has emerged since the onset of the United States-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The paper focuses on the notions of the Sunni-Shia divide and the Rise of the Shia.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and Politics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Asia

12327. Business Constraints and Growth Potential of Micro and Small Manufacturing Enterprises in Uganda

Author:
Esther K. Ishengoma and Robert Kappel
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Ugandan micro- and small enterprises (MSEs) still perform poorly. The paper utilizes data collected in Uganda in March and April 2003 to analyze the business constraints faced by these MSEs. Using a stratified random sampling, a sample of 265 MSEs were interviewed. The study focuses on the 105 manufacturing firms that responded to all questions. It examines the extent to which the growth of MSEs is associated with business constraints, while also controlling for owners' attributes and firms' characteristics. The results reveal that MSEs' growth potential is negatively affected by limited access to productive resources (finance and business services), by high taxes, and by lack of market access.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

12328. Participation in International Development Discourse and Practice. 'State of the Art' and Challenges

Author:
Frank Bliss and Stefan Neumann
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Participation has become one of the most important buzzwords in the international development discourse since at least the middle of the 1990s. In the same way as older key terms such as gender and socio-cultural conditions of development, or new concepts such as good governance and ownership, the increasing claims for participation (of target groups, of beneficiaries, of stake-holders etc.) are usually accompanied by a critical assessment of previous development cooperation which needs to be improved by stronger, more comprehensive or target-oriented participation. However, this positive connotation of participation shared by almost all actors in the field is increasingly challenged through critical remarks forwarded by theoreticians and practitioners alike.
Topic:
Civil Society, International Cooperation, Politics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Central Asia

12329. Análisis de la ideología empresarial regiomontana. Un acercamiento a partir del periódico El Norte

Author:
Cintia Smith Pussetto, Nancy Janett García Vázquez, and Jesús David Pérez Esparza
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
Monterrey, capital city of Nuevo León, has distinguished itself for an outstanding peripherical industrialization process that started at the end of the nineteenth century and achieved its consolidation during the twentieth. Monterrey is an unique object of study in the extent that it links the industrial structures with the development of a conservative local bourgeoisie, which has showed resistance toward the centralizing trends of the Mexican State. This paper presents the results of a content analysis of the city's most important newspaper, El Norte, in order to determine its role as a broadcaster and reinforcer of the local bussiness ideology.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Spain

12330. Justicia y decisión en el discurso presidencial argentino sobre la memoria (2003-2007)

Author:
Ana Soledad Montero
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
The claim for “memory” and “justice” regarding the crimes of the last military dictatorship took a central place in the agenda of Argentina's former president N. Kirchner (2003 - 2007). The purpose of this work is to analyze the tensions and complexities entailed in any process of construction of a collective memory within democracy: What is the role of the authority and the political decision? How can we find common tolerance principles to establish the limits of the political community? Finally, we wonder about the theoretical and practical possibility of justice, tolerance and pluralism in democracy and, particularly, about the main challenges faced by the Argentinean democracy in order to become a consolidated political community.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, Latin America, Central America, and Spain

12331. Las autodefensas y el paramilitarismo en Colombia (1964-2006)

Author:
Pedro Rivas Nieto and Pablo Rey García
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
This paper studies the phenomenon of the Colombian paramilitarism from its formal emergence, in the sixties, up to its formal disappearance, in 2006. This analysis comprises the evolution and the relations with diverse social groups that constituted the paramilitary movements, specially ranchers, drugs traffickers and the Armed Forces. Special emphasis is given to the change produced among the “self-defence groups” -legitimate defence supported by the State- and the paramilitary groups, whose purpose in the beginning was to finish with the insurgency, but at the end both of them were dedicated to criminal activities.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, Central America, and Spain

12332. El papel de la prensa en la construcción de la democracia española: de la muerte de Franco a la Constitución de 1978

Author:
Ricardo Zugasti
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
Through content analyses focused on the political news on front pages and on the introduction of the democratic values in newspaper editorials, this article outlines the political role of the Spanish press during the principal stage of the transition to democracy, an exceptional journalistic period. This piece of research could be likewise considered as a contribution, through a particular case, to the role of the press in political transitions.
Topic:
Civil Society and Democratization
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

12333. Canada-U.S. Relations and the Impermeable Border Post 9/11: The Co-Management of North America

Author:
Daniel Drache
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
Until September 11, 2001, Canadians had not thought very much or very hard about the long border they share with the United States. Nor had public authorities shown significant concern. There was no compelling imperative to contemplate it, particularly in this global age. Ideas passed through it, money poured over it and millions of people crossed it each year. Post–September 11, the border has changed beyond recognition. It is everywhere and everything. Issues now include enhanced security, protection of privacy rights, who Canadians want as citizens, how cross-border traffic can be expedited, and how open the border should be to political refugees.
Topic:
Human Rights and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, and North America

12334. Corresponsabilidad Estado-sociedad civil internacional. Greenpeace España y el caso Prestige

Author:
Nancy Janett García Vázquez, Paulina Coronel Arias, Elisa G. Gaxiola Baqueiro, Ana Lucia Mendoza Ibarra, and Aída Patiño Macía
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
Nowadays it is possible to talk about state-civil society co-responsibility. Although the state is still the dominant actor of the international system, globalization has led it to a re-structuration process. International non-governmental organizations (INGOs) have begun to play a key role in the design of solutions to issues not entirely attended by the state. In this paper we argue that INGOs have addressed topics that affect the international commu-nity—for instance, the environment—and have occasionally complemented the state's functions. To demonstrate our thesis, we will analyze the Span-ish authorities' and Greenpeace's reactions towards the environmental disaster caused by the oil tanker Prestige's sinking off the coast of Galicia.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Government, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Spain

12335. Russia's Dagestan: Conflict Causes - Europe Report N°192

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The North Caucasus (Russian) Republic of Dagestan has avoided large-scale violence despite its proximity to Chechnya but is now suffering from escalating street warfare. Several hundred local and federal security forces, administrators, politicians, ministers and journalists have been killed since 2003. The militant Islamist organisation Shariat Jamaat is responsible for much of the violence. Some of its leaders fought in Chechnya, but its extremist propaganda is also attracting unemployed Dagestani youth. This home-grown extremism, espousing jihadi theology and employing terrorist methods, is a new phenomenon. Police efforts to end the street war have been ineffective and in some instances counter-productive. While supporting loyal local elites, Moscow can help halt the increase in violence if it implements an efficient anti-corruption policy and reintegrates youth into the economic and political system.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Corruption, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

12336. Indonesia: Communal Tensions in Papua

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Indonesian Papua has seen periodic clashes between pro-independence supporters and goverment forces, but conflict between Muslim and Christian communities could also erupt unless rising tensions are effectively managed. Violence was narrowly averted in Mano­kwari and Kaimana in West Papua province in 2007, but bitterness remains on both sides. The key fac­tors are continuing Muslim migration from elsewhere in Indonesia; the emergence of new, exclusivist groups in both religious communities that have hardened the perception of the other as enemy; the lasting impact of the Maluku conflict; and the impact of developments outside Papua. National and local officials need to ensure that no discriminatory local regulations are enacted, and no activities by exclusivist religious organisations are supported by government funds.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil Society, Nationalism, and Religion
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

12337. Beyond the Fragile Peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea: Averting New War

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Ethiopia-Eritrea impasse carries serious risk of a new war and is a major source of instability in the Horn of Africa, most critically for Somalia. Following Ethiopia's refusal to accept virtual demarcation of the border by the now disbanded Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC), Asmara unilaterally imple­men­ted it and forced out the UN peacekeepers (UNMEE), significantly raising the stakes and shattering the status quo. Its insistence on recovering terri­tory the Commission awarded it – Badme in particular – could lead to unilateral military action by either side but is only one of several war scenarios. The Security Council and key individual states (the U.S., in particular) must recognise the dangers of their inaction and advance a reconfigured political process with new determination if there is to be a change in the calculations of the parties, who appear to be dangerously content with trying to maintain a level of simmering but unpredictable hostility.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

12338. Egypt's Muslim Brothers: Confrontation or Integration?

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Society of Muslim Brothers' success in the November-December 2005 elections for the People's Assembly sent shockwaves through Egypt's political system. In response, the regime cracked down on the movement, harassed other potential rivals and reversed its fledging reform process. This is dangerously short-sighted. There is reason to be concerned about the Muslim Brothers' political program, and they owe the people genuine clarifications about several of its aspects. But the ruling National Democratic Party's (NDP) refusal to loosen its grip risks exacerbating tensions at a time of both political uncertainty surrounding the presidential succession and serious socio-economic unrest. Though this likely will be a prolonged, gradual process, the regime should take preliminary steps to normalise the Muslim Brothers' participation in political life.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

12339. Reunifying Cyprus: The Best Chance Yet

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A new peace process in Cyprus offers the best opportunity in decades to solve the intractable division of the island. The turnabout is largely due to the surprise election of Demetris Christofias to the Greek Cypriot presidency. He, together with his Turkish Cypriot counterpart, Mehmet Ali Talat, are demonstrating political will to make the current UN-mediated talks succeed. Key players like Turkey are being constructive. The outside world, particularly the UN and European Union (EU), needs to fully engage in support of a comprehensive settlement that will improve Cypriot security and prosperity, free Turkey to continue its movement into Europe and overcome a problem that is increasingly damaging to EU policy in the region and beyond.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, International Political Economy, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Europe and United Nations

12340. Dealing with Damascus: Seeking a Greater Return on U.S.-Syria Relations

Author:
Mona Yacoubian and Scott Lasensky
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Punctuated by conflict in Iraq, an ascendant ran, and continued instability in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, rising volatility in the Middle East threatens U.S. interests in the region. Meanwhile, sectarianism, al-Qaeda–inspired terrorism, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) all serve as troubling overlays to this complex mix. Mired in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States has yet to develop a comprehensive strategic framework that addresses these interrelated challenges. Instead, U.S. policy has been largely crisis-driven, attempting to put out fires by confronting issues on an ad hoc basis rather than seeking to respond to the underlying forces and tensions that catalyze conflict and instability in the Middle East.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria

12341. Korean Institutional Reform in Comparative Perspective

Author:
Marcus Noland and Erik Weeks
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In recent years, academic economists have come to appreciate the centrality of public institutions in contributing to economic performance. Yet Korea, arguably the premier success story of the last half-century, has sometimes been described as a First World economy with Third World institutions. Although Korea modestly underachieves on most of the 52 institutional indicators examined in this paper, it is not an outlier, and on most indicators it is converging on global norms from below.
Topic:
International Organization and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and South Korea

12342. Empire, Hegemony, and Leadership: Developing a Research Framework for the Study of Regional Powers

Author:
Sandra Destradi
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Regional powers are often conceived of as “regional leading powers,” states which adopt a cooperative and benevolent attitude in their international relations with their neighbors. The paper argues that regional powers can follow a much wider range of foreign policy strategies in their region. Three ideal-typical regional strategies are identified: empire, hegemony, and leadership. The paper is devoted to a theory-led distinction and clarification of these three terms, which are often used interchangeably in the field of international relations. According to the goals pursued, to the means employed, and to other discriminating features such as the degree of legitimation and the type of self-representation by the dominant state, the paper outlines the essential traits of imperial, hegemonic, and leading strategies and identifies subtypes for better classifying hegemony and leadership.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, India, and Brazil

12343. China's Thirst for Oil

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
China's need for energy is growing faster than any other country's. Record economic growth results in demand that outstrips domestic supply, leading Beijing to look outward to ensure growth and stability. Concerns about the global oil market have led state firms to buy stakes around the world, often in countries shunned by Western firms. The investments are an important factor in Beijing's foreign policy. They also drive concerns that China's actions fuel or exacerbate conflict in the developing world and cause tensions with other major oil-importing countries as it locks up energy resources. China's energy needs have led it to play a more prominent role in international markets in recent years. This has generated concerns about the potential impact on other countries' energy security, and global and regional security generally. These are largely overstated, but China could take a number of steps, as its policymaking and implementation evolves, which would help create a more cooperative international environment on both energy and wider security issues.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Beijing, and Asia

12344. Georgia and Russia: Clashing over Abkhazia

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With the dispute between Georgia and Russia in a new, dangerously confrontational phase, the risk of war in the South Caucasus is growing. Concerned by NATO's plans for further extension to former Soviet republics and Kosovo's unilateral but Western-orchestrated independence, Russia has stepped up manipulation of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia conflicts. Georgia remains determined to restore its territorial integrity, and hawks in Tbilisi are seriously considering a military option. Both sides need to recognise the risks in current policies, cool their rhetoric and cease military preparations. Russia should cease undermining its peacekeeper and mediator roles and be open to a change of negotiating formats. Georgia should adopt a new approach to the Abkhaz, encouraging their links to the outside world to lessen dependence on Russia and emphasising incremental con­­fidence building to establish the mutual trust needed for successful negotiations. The U.S. and European Union (EU) should be firm and united in cautioning both Moscow and Tbilisi against military adventures.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, Kosovo, Georgia, and Tbilisi

12345. Guinea: Ensuring Democratic Reforms

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le changement politique et économique réclamé par la population guinéenne au prix de près de 200 morts en janvier-février 2007 est largement compromis. Le limogeage du Premier ministre Lansana Kouyaté le 20 mai 2008 et son remplacement par Tidiane Souaré, un proche du président Lansana Conté, risque de compromettre l'ensemble du processus de réforme. Les déclarations apaisantes du nouveau chef de gou- vernement en faveur de l'inclusion et de la poursuite du « changement » ne doivent pas faire illusion. Le gouvernement Souaré-Conté a toutes les chances de remettre en cause les promesses d'élections législati- ves crédibles en décembre 2008, de compromettre le redressement économique du pays et d'enterrer la commission d'enquête indépendante qui doit identifier et poursuivre les auteurs de la répression sanglante de janvier 2007. Plus que jamais, les acteurs de la société civile, les responsables des partis politiques, les auto- rités religieuses et tous ceux qui souhaitent le chan- gement doivent opposer un front uni à la restauration du pouvoir sans partage de Lansana Conté.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Government, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Africa

12346. Learning the Right Lessons from Iraq

Author:
Benjamin H. Friedman, Harvey Sapolsky, and Christopher Preble
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Foreign policy experts and policy analysts are misreading the lessons of Iraq. The emerging conventional wisdom holds that success could have been achieved in Iraq with more troops, more cooperation among U.S. government agencies, and better counterinsurgency doctrine. To analysts who share these views, Iraq is not an example of what not to do but of how not to do it. Their policy proposals aim to reform the national security bureaucracy so that we will get it right the next time.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

12347. Parting with Illusions: Developing a Realistic Approach to Relations with Russia

Author:
Nikolas Gvosdev
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
A review of America's post-Soviet strategy toward Russia is long overdue. The illusions that once guided policy are now at an end. What is needed is a dispassionate approach to Russia, wherein Americans would neither magnify nor excuse the virtues and vices of the Russian Federation but would accept the following realities: Russia is unlikely to become integrated into the Euro-Atlantic community and is unwilling to adjust its foreign policy priorities accordingly; There is broad-based support within Russia for the direction in which Vladimir Putin has taken the country; Russia has undergone a genuine—if limited— recovery from the collapse of the 1990s; Washington lacks sufficient leverage to compel Russian acquiescence to its policy preferences; and On a number of critical foreign policy issues, there is no clear community of interests that allows for concepts of "selective partnership" to be effective.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

12348. Electronic Employment Eligibility Verification: Franz Kafka's Solution to Illegal Immigration

Author:
Jim Harper
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In last summer's debate over immigration reform, Congress treated a national electronic employment eligibility verification (EEV) system as a matter of near consensus. Intended to strengthen internal enforcement of the immigration laws, electronic EEV is an Internet-based employee vetting system that the federal government would require every employer to use.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

12349. The Grass Is Not Always Greener: A Look at National Health Care Systems Around the World

Author:
Michael Tanner
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Critics of the U.S. health care system frequently point to other countries as models for reform. They point out that many countries spend far less on health care than the United States yet seem to enjoy better health outcomes. The United States should follow the lead of those countries, the critics say, and adopt a government- run, national health care system.
Topic:
Government and Health
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

12350. Organ Sales and Moral Travails: Lessons from the Living Kidney Vendor Program in Iran

Author:
Benjamin E. Hippen
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Kidney transplantation in the United States is burdened by a terrible policy failure. The cost of this failure will be paid in the currency of years of human lives unnecessarily lost, as well as a massive increase in federal expenditures over the next decade and beyond. The number of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the United States has grown, but the supply of kidneys—for the preferred treatment for ESRD, kidney transplantation— has not kept pace with the demand. Unfortunately, the issue is not simply one of supply and demand: in the United States the supply of kidneys for transplantation is kept artificially low by a prohibition on the sale of human organs.
Topic:
Health, Human Welfare, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East