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  • Author: Leo A. Grünfeld
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper studies R spillovers as a motive for firms to go multinational. The establishment of a foreign subsidiary may increase a firm's ability to learn from foreign R activity since R spillovers between firms are moderated by geographical distance. As opposed to earlier studies on this subject, we also model the concept of absorptive capacity where spillovers are endogenised as a function of the firms'own R investments. We employ a three-stage Cournot duopoly model to identify under what conditions a firm chooses to service a foreign market through exports or localised production (going multinational). With exogenous R investments, the absorptive capacity effect contributes to increase the gains from going multinational when the firm is a technology leader in terms of R If R investments are endogenous, only medium-sized absorptive capacity effects will result in firms going multinational. Also, higher spillover rates do not necessarily drive down R and profits for the multinational firm. This stands in contrast to models that ignore the aspect of absorptive capacity.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology
  • Author: Tore Bjørgo
  • Publication Date: 06-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Young persons belonging to various types of right-wing extremist groups commit a large proportion of xenophobic and racist attacks. Measures against racial violence should therefore include interventions that reduce and (preferably) dissolve such groups. To be effective, this requires knowledge about how such groups emerge and operate, and in particular, on processes of recruitment and disengagement. Through early intervention, it is possible to reduce recruitment of new members to racist youth groups, and also facilitate (early) disengagement for those who are already involved with the group. Although most members of racist groups leave sooner or later, it is important that they quit sooner rather than later—before they hurt others, and before they have internalised a racist world-view and a violent pattern of behaviour. The article describes reasons for why some young people join racist groups; factors and circumstances that cause most of them eventually to consider disengaging; and what prevents some of them from doing so. The Exit project was started to develop methods and strategies for reducing recruitment and facilitating disengagement from racist groups. Beginning in Norway in 1996–97, the Exit approach was subsequently adopted and developed further in Sweden, with strong results. From there, the Exit approach spread on to Germany, where there are now a number of private and staterun initiatives to promote disengagement from neo-Nazi groups. There are also Exit initiatives in several other European countries.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict
  • Political Geography: Europe, Palestine, Germany, Sweden
  • Author: Pernille Rieker
  • Publication Date: 03-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper analyses the relationship between the European integration process and the recent changes in the Norwegian and the Swedish national security identities. The aim of the paper is to compare developments in the Norwegian and the Swedish security identities in the 1990s and to evaluate the extent and scope of Europeanisation in the two cases. The fact that both Norway and Sweden had very traditional security discourses at the beginning of the 1990s and that it is possible to detect shifts away from this traditionalism in parallel with the development towards a European security dimension should prove that a Europeanisation has indeed occurred. While several researchers have studied the influence of the EU on national institutions and policies, less attention has been given to the Europeanisation of national security identities. This paper is therefore an attempt to fill this gap. The fact that Sweden has become a member of the EU while Norway has not also makes these two countries good cases for examining the extent and scope of their respective Europeanisation.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Nationalism
  • Political Geography: Europe, Norway, Sweden
  • Author: Eric G. Berman
  • Publication Date: 02-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: In May 1997, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced their joint “P-3 Initiative”, to harmonize their peacekeeping capacity-building programs in Africa and foster an open dialogue between donors and recipients. The capacity-building programs of France, the UK and the US have since undergone numerous transformations. The centerpiece of French policy, the Renforcement des capacités Africaines de maintien de la paix (RECAMP) has had comparatively few changes to its basic structure, but has been scaled down. The UK African Peacekeeping Training Support Programme has given way to a much larger and more ambitious initiative. The US African Crisis Response Initiative (ACRI) has evolved significantly and will undergo a more fundamental change in 2002, including shedding its name. Moreover, Washington initiated a new capacity-building policy in 2001, which dwarfed ACRI in terms of resources and introduced the provision of lethal equipment.
  • Topic: Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, France
  • Author: Raquel Abrantes Pêgo, Célia Almeida
  • Publication Date: 09-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The purpose of this study is to consider the role played by the community of public health experts in the contemporary health sector reform process. It discusses the issue based on the case of Brazil and Mexico, because, as specialists, public health researchers in both countries have directed their participation to influencing the conflict over the reorientation of health policy in their respective countries. One of their approaches has consisted in developing a new cognitive framework that underpins technical health sector reform projects understood as policy proposals with technical content. Our purpose is to show that these experts manage to influence the national debate over health sector reform when the technical and scientific discussion leaves the academic sphere and goes to the realm of social and political debate. In our opinion, this occurs because this technical and scientific knowledge has been held out, independently of its intrinsic value, as a political and ideological alternative platform for sustaining a health sector reform proposal which, once transformed into a policy project, has served to aggregate certain political and social forces and not others. The study sets out each case separately, in each showing first the emergence of a new body of thinking in the field of public health (Collective Health in Brazil and New Public Health in Mexico). It then demonstrates how these groups of experts have articulated and interacted with specific political and social forces within their respective societies, and analyses how they have become a political stream within health institutions in the struggle to control the sector's future.
  • Topic: Development, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: Brazil, South America, Latin America, Central America, North America, Mexico
  • Author: David Smilde
  • Publication Date: 09-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Venezuelan Evangelicals' responses to candidates in that country's 1998 presidential election seem to confirm the view that their political culture is inconsistent, contradictory, and paradoxical. Not only were Evangelicals just as likely as the larger population to support nationalist former coup leader Hugo Chávez, they rejected Venezuela's one Evangelical party after it made a clientalist pact with the infamous social democratic party candidate. In this article, concepts from recent cultural theory are used to examine qualitative data from these two voting behaviors. Ways to make sense of the contradictory nature of Evangelical political culture are suggested.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: South America, Latin America, Venezuela
  • Author: Frank K. Volker
  • Publication Date: 06-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This article examines the experience of the Chilean labor movement during the first decade of democracy. In so doing, it calls attention to the need for further study of how institutional variables, such as labor legislations, influence labor movement strategies across different political regimes (authoritarian and democratic). Evidence from the Chilean case demonstrates that while important, exogenous variables such as new democratic governments and new labor legislations have only limited explanatory power with regard to labor movement strategies. This warrants a closer look at internal organizational aspects.
  • Topic: Globalization, Industrial Policy, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: South America, Latin America, Chile
  • Author: Gábor Tóka
  • Publication Date: 05-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The paper empirically tests the proposition that because of the unequal social distribution of politically relevant resources, some groups of citizens may be less successful in expressing their specifically political preferences in the vote than others. Hence, the electoral arena may give different people different degrees of political influence even when the formal equality of all citizens before the law is rigorously upheld in the electoral process. Survey data on voting behavior in 18 democratic party systems from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and Larry Bartels's (1996) simulation procedure—now extended to the analysis of multiparty-systems, turnout effects and non-linear information effects on the vote—are utilized to explore the question. The results show that social differences in both turnout and political knowledge may lead to the hypothesized political inequalities but their size is remarkably modest.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Manuel Alcántara Sáez
  • Publication Date: 04-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper describes the evolution of candidate selection processes in Latin American political parties up to the year 2000. The topic is part of the field of political party studies in the region. The first section diagnoses the problems affecting the data bases produced by the Latinobarometro and the Parliamentary Elites Survey of the Universidad de Salamanca. The second section describes the process indicated in the title of the present piece.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: South America, Latin America, Central America
  • Author: Ronald J. Balvers, Jeffrey H. Bergstrand
  • Publication Date: 04-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Economists have long investigated theoretically and empirically the relationship between government spending and equilibrium real exchange rates. As Frenkel and Razin (1996) summarize for a small open economy, government expenditures (financed by lump-sum taxes) influence real exchange rates via a resource-withdrawal channel and a consumption-tilting channel. Recent theoretical and empirical studies, such as Froot and Rogoff (1991), Rogoff (1992), De Gregorio, Giovannini, and Krueger (1994), De Gregorio, Giovannini, and Wolf (1994), De Gregorio and Wolf (1994), and Chinn and Johnston (1996), have focused only upon the effects of government spending through the resource-withdrawal channel. Extending Frenkel and Razin (1996), this paper generates closed-form theoretical solutions for the relationships among the real exchange rate, relative per capita private consumption, relative per capita government consumption, and relative per capita tradables and nontradables production in a two-country general equilibrium model. Using relative price level, private and government per capita consumption, and relative productivity data from the Summers and Heston (1991) Penn World Tables and OECD (1996) data for a sample of OECD countries relative to the United States, we estimate the model's structural equations. The results suggest that government expenditures influence equilibrium real exchange rates approximately equally via the resource-withdrawal and consumption-tilting channels. Moreover, the results imply that government spending and private consumption are complements in utility.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Michael Coppedge
  • Publication Date: 04-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: In order to evaluate accurately the state of democratic governance during the first years of the Chávez presidency, one must sharpen the distinction between democracy narrowly defined as popular sovereignty versus the more conventional notion of liberal democracy. Venezuela was no longer a liberal democracy in every respect. Instead, it became an extreme case of delegative democracy. The president enjoyed widespread popular support for almost everything he and his followers did, and this fact qualified his government as "democratic" in the narrow sense of popular sovereignty. But the systematic elimination of constraints on presidential action after 1998 increased the risk that Venezuela would cease to be a democracy by any definition in the future.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Government
  • Political Geography: South America, Latin America, Venezuela
  • Author: Ana Maria Bejarano, Eduardo Pizarro Leongómez
  • Publication Date: 04-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: During the last decade and a half, Colombia has witnessed both an improvement in the dimensions of democratic participation and contestation and a severe deterioration in those dimensions of democracy related to effective protection of civil liberties and subordination of the military. While the term “semi-democracy” seems most appropriate to classify the Colombian political regime, the restrictions that made the Colombian regime semi-democratic during the second half of the twentieth century have changed in nature. Between 1958 and 1986, restrictions were placed on the competitive dimension of democracy. From the mid-1980s onward, the regime's shortcomings stem from the weakness of the state, the emergence of powerful armed actors, and the absence of the rule of law.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Colombia, South America, Latin America
  • Author: Eduardo Pizarro Leongómez
  • Publication Date: 01-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The Colombian Liberal-Conservative bipartyism appeared up until just a decade ago not only as one of the oldest but also as one of the most institutionalized party systems in Latin America. Today, even though a complete party collapse similar to those ocurred in Peru and Venezuela did not take place, the erosion of both parties has followed a path with few historical precedents: an extreme "personalist factionalism" (Giovanni Sartori) or, to use a more coloquial term that has become popular in Colombia, the implosion of parties in tens and tens of electoral micro-businesses.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Colombia, South America, Latin America, Venezuela, Peru
  • Author: Scott L. Baier, Jeffrey Bergstrand
  • Publication Date: 01-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The purpose of this study is to provide the first systematic empirical analysis of the economic determinants of the formation of free trade agreements (FTAs) and of the likelihood of FTAs between pairs of countries using a qualitative choice model. We develop this econometric model based upon a general equilibrium theoretical model of world trade with two factors of production, two monopolistically competitive product markets, and explicit intercontinental and intracontinental transportation costs among multiple countries on multiple continents. The empirical model correctly predicts, based solely upon economic characteristics, 83 percent of the 289 FTAs existing in 1996 among 1,431 pairs of countries and 97 percent of the remaining 1,142 pairs with no FTAs.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements
  • Author: Michael G. Donovan, Kwan S. Kim
  • Publication Date: 01-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper analyzes the historical development of Japan's economic relationship with Latin America and describes trends observed in the short and medium term. The main types of relations examined are trade, direct foreign investment, and official development assistance. Emphasis is placed on how Japan's postwar economic development is mirrored in its changing relationship with Latin America. The importance of relationships for both Japan and the United States is discussed, as are competing broad theoretical hypotheses about the nature and evolution of these relationships. The concluding section explores the impact of the Asian economic crisis on Latin America and assesses the feasibility of free trade agreements between Japan and certain Latin American nations.
  • Topic: Development, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Asia, South America, Latin America
  • Author: Laura Newman
  • Publication Date: 11-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: Citizens and their leaders around the world have long recognized the risk of corruption. Corruption diverts scarce resources from necessary public services, and instead puts it in the pockets of politicians, middlemen and illicit contractors, while ensuring that the poor do not receive the benefits of this "system". The consequences of corruption globally have been clear: unequal access to public services and justice, reduced investor confidence, continued poverty, and even violence and overthrow of governments. A high level of corruption is a singularly pernicious societal problem that also undermines the rule of law and citizen confidence in democratic institutions.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Democratization, Government, Human Rights, Politics
  • Political Geography: South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, North America
  • Publication Date: 05-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: The Carter Center's decision to bring together human rights and pro-democracy activists from all regions of the world was based on the idea that it would be valuable to generate a picture of the state of global democracy and human rights movements. The late U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Sergio Vieira de Mello agreed that in order to determine how the United Nations could support democratization and improvement in human rights conditions at the national level, he wanted to hear the views of those who are close to the action, those who work on the “frontlines of freedom.” Though situations differ according to local circumstances, it is important to watch for trends and assess progress as well as challenges that lie ahead. In the pages that follow are a selection of the pressing concerns of some of the world's most dedicated individuals who are truly betting their lives on the idea that universal freedom can be built law by law, case by case, community by community.
  • Topic: Security, Human Rights, Terrorism, War
  • Political Geography: United States, United Nations
  • Author: Bruce D. Jones
  • Publication Date: 05-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: As we enter 2003, the Israeli-Palestinian context is defined by a series of inter- related phenomena: a continuing loss of Israeli and Palestinian lives; political turbulence (and some convergence) in Israel; progress, after much debate, on the question of reform and Chairman Arafat's leadership; a factional struggle for dominance of Palestinian popular politics; devastation of the Palestinian economy, and a lesser but still damaging corrosion of the Israeli economy; and public attitudes on both sides defined by the concept of “tactical hawks, strategic doves”—but with trends showing a worrying erosion of support for peaceful solutions. The international context is defined by growing consensus on substantive issues among international, Arab, and some U.S. officials; some remaining tactical and presentational differences within this group; a rise of anti-Semitic and anti-Arab attitudes; and uncertainty about the consequences of regime change in Iraq. The combination—alongside President Bush's decision to publish the Road Map following the confirmation of the new Palestinian Cabinet—potentially represents a turning point.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, Israel, Palestine, Arabia
  • Author: Jimmy Carter, Robert Rubin
  • Publication Date: 02-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: In 1992, The Carter Center hosted a conference for Global Development Cooperation. The purpose of the conference was to identify specific and practical ways to improve development cooperation on a global scale. President Carter and United Nations Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali co-chaired the event, which convened world leaders, development experts, and representatives from donor institutions, developing nations, international organizations, nongovernmental organizations, private foundations, and the private sector. In the ensuing decade, the need for improved development cooperation was central to the formulation of strategies designed to reduce human suffering and narrow disparities.
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, Government, Non-Governmental Organization, Politics
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Publication Date: 01-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: This report describes in detail The Carter Center's activities in China from July 1998 to January 1999 with a focus on the observation of China's village and township elections and recommendations to improve the quality of those elections. The report is divided into two parts. Part I is a report on the Center's observation of township elections in Chongqing. Part II covers the Center's activities with respect to village elections in cooperation with the Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA ).
  • Topic: Civil Society, Democratization, Mass Media
  • Political Geography: China
  • Publication Date: 10-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: Mali's 2002 presidential elections mark an important step in Mali's democratic consolidation following the completion of President Alpha Oumar Konare's two terms in office.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Democratization, Politics
  • Political Geography: Africa, Mali
  • Author: Claire Piana
  • Publication Date: 11-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Information Service
  • Abstract: The Convention on the future of Europe is critical for the role of the European Union in the promotion of a more peaceful world. This roundtable sought to gain feedback on EPLO's contribution to the debate. EPLO's paper, which is entitled “Building Conflict Prevention into the Future of Europe”, makes recommendations on how to mainstream conflict prevention in the EU Treaty. It is based on the vision of a EU that is inclusive, democratically accountable, and promoting a more peaceful world.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Publication Date: 05-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Assembly at Columbia University
  • Abstract: National unity in ordinary times is a preposterous ambition—at least according to some of the shrewdest leaders history has produced. “Only peril can bring the French together,” said Charles de Gaulle. “One can't impose unity...on a country that has 265 different kinds of cheese.” Anyone watching the United States after September 11, 2001 knows there is truth in de Gaulle's quip: External threat is always the surest route to solidarity. The need to survive often breaks down barriers of class, race, sex, faith, ideology, ethnicity, and more.
  • Topic: Economics, Nationalism, Religion
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Publication Date: 02-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Assembly at Columbia University
  • Abstract: At the close of their discussions, the participants in the 100th American Assembly on "Art, Technology, and Intellectual Property," at Arden House, Harriman, New York, February 7-10, 2002, reviewed as a group the following statement. While the statement represents general agreement, no one was asked to sign it. Furthermore, it should be understood that not everyone agreed with all of it, and some vigorously disagreed with some of it.
  • Topic: Economics, Education, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States, New York, America
  • Publication Date: 01-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Assembly at Columbia University
  • Abstract: A companion piece to Building a More United America: Final Report of the Uniting America Series, Conducting Your Community Dialogue is designed to help groups and individuals organize and carry out a community dialogue about issues addressed in the earlier report. Roles for discussants and sample questions for facilitating discussions are included.
  • Publication Date: 02-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Assembly at Columbia University
  • Abstract: This report from the 2002 American Assembly of the same name explores the transformation of law, enforcement, and artistic practice as digital technologies change the conditions for the creation and circulation of cultural works. The report reflects input from a wide range of stakeholders who would play important roles in the next decade of debates over intellectual property policy.
  • Publication Date: 03-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Assembly at Columbia University
  • Abstract: “Following the discussions of this Assembly, and the foundation established over the last four years, we now have a report citizens around the country can draw upon to move us forward as a united people,” said David Gergen, Uniting America co-chair, U.S. News and World Report editor-at-large, and professor at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. Under the leadership of David Gergen, Karen Elliott House and Don McHenry, participants finalized a report entitled “Bulding a More United America,” which served as a starting point for groundbreaking community dialogues across the country. The Uniting America project fostered dialogue on some of the most challenging issues in American life, from religion, to race, to economic justice, to the changing composition of the family. In the course of six Assemblies convened over four years, participants worked to find common ground on these issues and common strategies for strengthening the democratic processes that allow us to work through them. Collectively, the Uniting America events brought together some 300 scholars, practitioners, business leaders, and policymakers. The project produced a series of reports, and a very successful book: Uncommon Common Ground: Race and America's Future.
  • Author: Don S. Browning, Gloria G. Rodriguez
  • Publication Date: 01-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Assembly at Columbia University
  • Abstract: Families can play a pivotal role in bringing America to greater unity, but even the definition of "family" can be divisive. The authors seek to identify the underlying values in these debates, find common ground among diverse traditions, and clarify the supporting roles of government, business, and civil society.
  • Author: Angela Glover Blackwell, Stewart Kwoh, Manuel Pastor
  • Publication Date: 04-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Assembly at Columbia University
  • Abstract: A wide-ranging and in-depth discussion of the persistently divisive issues surrounding race in this country. Race is easily the defining point of American disunity. Often discussed in black and white, today's racial divide includes growing numbers of Hispanics and Asian Americans, as well as Native Americans. By broadening the parameters of the racial dialogue, this book brings a new perspective to an essential American issue. The American Assembly of Columbia University commissioned this volume as part of its Uniting America series.
  • Author: Jon P. Dorschner
  • Publication Date: 07-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: Through an accident of history, the state of Bengal was divided between two different countries, first Pakistan and India, and later Bangladesh and India. This paper alleges that, as a result, Bangladesh has assumed the status of a “marginalized state” which is incapable of serious economic development and is seeing the erosion of its soverienty due to poverty and endemic out-migration. The paper postulates that Bangladesh will have to modify its current relationship with India, and the Indian state of West Bengal in particular, and sacrifice a measure of its sovereignty in order to assure economic development and continued survival over the long term.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Religion
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Asia, Bengal
  • Author: Jon P. Dorschner
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: This paper examines the current state of the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India. While the dispute has been relegated to the back burner by the United States and deemed unsolvable, it could be resolved if the United States invested the resources and energy required. The Northern Ireland dispute serves as a model. Both countries would have to agree to postpone final resolution of the status of Kashmir, while demobilizing armed forces, ending terrorism, establishing a credible human rights regime, and opening the Line of Control to enable free contact by Kashmiris.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, Kashmir, North Ireland
  • Author: Jon P. Dorschner
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: India has long endured terrorist attacks against its security forces and civilians, both in Indian Kashmir and in India proper, which it alleges are directed and financed by Pakistan. On Dec ember 13, a terrorist attack against the Indian parliament building in New Delhi appeared aimed at killing Indian members of parliament. India interpreted this as an “act of war,” mobilized its troops and threatened military action. This paper examines the options available to the Indian military, and determines that none of them are very attractive and are unlikely to cause serious damage to the terrorist infrastructure located in Pakistan controlled Kashmir, or in Pakistan proper.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, South Asia, India, Kashmir
  • Author: Thomas Sherlock
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: This paper is a modest effort to sketch the transformation of public memory in conditions of political transition. Specifically, it examines the recovery and interpretation of the Baltic past in Soviet and post-Soviet discourse. The paper is divided into two parts. The first part examines the desacralization of the central myths that legitimated the Soviet empire and its rule over the Baltic nationalities. The debate on Baltic history during perestroika was part of a larger - and increasingly destructive -- examination of Soviet history that shocked society with a flood of negative revelations about the past, forcing political and academic authorities to cancel secondary school exams and discard existing textbooks as virtually useless. This struggle over how to interpret the Soviet past eventually weakened the normative supports of the Soviet state, contributing to its collapse in 1991.
  • Topic: Cold War, Diplomacy
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union
  • Author: Russell D. Howard, Albert Willner
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: The United States led war on terrorism has already had a major impact on developing state relationships in Asia. The coalition of convenience that emerged in the aftermath of the September 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon has engendered a change in strategic thinking, perceptions, and influence. A significant shift in any of these three areas could have dramatic implications. For the United States, what is required is not only a reassessment of the new realities but also a strategy to take advantage of new opportunities and cope with potential threats. Perhaps nowhere is this need more apparent, or possible responses more fraught with risk, than in determining the impact of such strategic shifts on the U.S.-China relationship, particularly in the security realm.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia
  • Author: Blaire M. Harms
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: This paper represents an introductory and partial review of the literature on elite politics and their use of myths and symbols for legitimacy. My full project will explain the connection (or relationship) between religious elites and political elites, the use of religious myths, symbols or ritual to generate nationalism, and political legitimacy. This project requires that I bring together a number of different fields that examine elites and nationalism, as well as the literature on myths and symbols. This includes work in international relations, comparative politics, culture/ethnicity, and religion. The starting point of most of the literature that looks at elite politics and nationalism (whether this is stated or not) is that politics becomes problematic when political institutions are weak. I will provide an overview of this broad literature to start with; then I will give a condensed look at some other positions that examine why competitive elite politics may generate nationalism; where nationalist symbology comes from; and the different roles religious elites may play in nationalist conflict; and finish with a description of how I see the relationship between religion, politics, myths and nationalism. You will see that my position is unique, yet combines elements from the other fields of inquiry.
  • Topic: Government, Politics, Religion
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Suzanne C. Nielsen
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: The ideas of Carl von Clausewitz have been the subject of endless controversy since the posthumous publication of On War in 1832. Did Clausewitz produce a time bound analysis of the wars of his age, or a timeless classic? Was he an objective analyst of war's complexities, or an advocate of wars of annihilation? This paper explores Clausewitz's perspective on the moral issues that war inevitably raises. This exploration will address two main questions. First, what views does Clausewitz express on the role for ethical considerations in war? Second, did Clausewitz think that the statesman's actions in international politics could or should take into account moral considerations? This paper argues that Clausewitz prioritizes the interests of the state over moral considerations. However, his approach leaves open the possibility that state interests can vary over time in ways that expand statesmen's opportunities for moral action.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Civil Society, Government
  • Author: Scott A. Silverstone
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: NATO's ability to assume an activist military role in the international system will depend on the capacity of its member states to generate and sustain domestic support for using military force and for adapting to the changing military conditions that evolve over the course of armed conflict. This article argues that the ability or willingness of national leaders to use force through NATO will vary significantly depending on the arrangement of their democratic political institutions. In the Kosovo war, while Great Britain was a persistent advocate of a ground assault, Germany threatened to veto any such NATO action. The United States was between these extremes, only slowly moving toward acceptance of a ground assault over the course of the conflict. The key variable, "institutional vulnerability" (defined by the degree to which the executive is vulnerable to being removed from office and losing decision-making autonomy to legislative opponents), is the basis for contrasting Britain's Westminster parliamentary, Germany's coalition parliamentary, and America's presidential systems, and for explaining their policy differences in this crisis.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Kosovo
  • Author: John C. Hansen, John M. Barron
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: This paper will shed some light on the legislative voting literature by using a standard median voter model, however, the legislator's term is split into two distinct voting years. This allows us to analyze in more detail the voting decisions made by Congressmen. We estimate a voting record based on constituency variables and calculate the residual. We find that a higher first-year residual on the part of a congressman causes a lower probability of being reelected. In addition, we find that the first-year residual plays the key role in this lower reelection probability. The second-year residual lacks any consistent significance with regards to the reelection probability. In this paper, we also analyze two different effects that have been predominant in the literature: the sorting effect and the tenure effect. Using our comprehensive data set, from 1983-1996, we find that both effects do exist. Moreover, older congressmen (those closer to retirement) had lower residuals. For the years 1983 to 1992, the two effects counteracted each other and caused no net impact on the first-year residual. For the years 1993-1996, the sorting effect dominated the tenure effect and showed that members with higher tenures had lower first-year residuals.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Isaiah Wilson III
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: Making the best strategic and force choices in a free society is a difficult and lengthy process. The strategist and force planner must consider numerous international and domestic factors, including political, economic and military influences. [B]ecause planning involves preparing for the future, there is considerable uncertainty and much room for disagreement about preferred strategy and how forces should be structured, organized, and equipped. [E]qually valid arguments are often made for widely different choices, each depending on the objectives sought and the assumptions made about threats, challenges, opportunities, technological advances, and future political and economic conditions. This tendency is exacerbated by various advocates who focus on the single factor most important to them, such as the threat or budget, without a balanced attempt to explore the full dimensions of the problems.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Isaiah Wilson III
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: The quest for ensuring a secure, but free society in the United States continues to this day. The attacks on the American homeland on September 11, 2001 shine a particularly stark light on the issue. The attacks on the homeland have shaken America's sensibilities regarding what is and what is not proper use of the active military within the territorial boundaries of the national state. In fact, the new sensibility is that DOD must have a direct role in executing the six functions of homeland security iterated by President Bush in Executive Order 13228 – detection, preparation, prevention, protection, response, and recovery. The fledgling Office of Homeland Security (see figure 1 in appendix ) continues to struggle with the implementation of the policy. The office, empowered to 'coordinate and facilitate' rather than command and control federal, state, and local HLS efforts, has left the office and its Director, Governor Tom Ridge, hamstrung.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Jon P. Dorschner
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: The low priority that the United States placed on South Asia, led to the creation of a Taliban ruled terrorist safe haven in Afghanistan. To prevent such disasters in the future, the US must end its neglect, play an active role in the region, and commit sufficient energy and resources. The US must devise and implement an effective, well-funded, long-term strategy aimed at encouraging cooperation and regional integration. The strategy should stress clearly enunciated issues. These include: nonproliferation, demilitarization, regionally oriented economic development, poverty reduction, preservation of the environment, settling the Kashmir dispute, ending communal politics, and vitalizing the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, Kashmir
  • Author: Jon P. Dorschner
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: This is a short evaluation of the prospects for postwar reconstruction in Afghanistan. It will conclude with a number of policy recommendations regarding the possible role that the United States can play in the establishing of a viable Afghan state. It reflects my experience in the region and as an intelligence analyst and Foreign Service Officer.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia
  • Author: Sonya L. Finley
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: With the proliferation of ballistic and cruise missiles and weapons of mass destruction (WMD), American political leaders have embarked on a long-term plan for deploying Theater Missile Defense (TMD) as a means to protect the United States, US forces abroad, and allies. Effective on 13 June 2002, the United States is no longer party to the 1972 ABM Treaty and missile defense is a priority with "prominence in policy, funding, and organization." TMD essentially is a family of military weapon systems whose purpose is to intercept hostile missiles that have been launched, whether intentionally or unintentionally. However, the question remains whether Theater Missile Defense is, and will be, an integrated and effective tool in achieving overall US national security goals in Northeast Asia, namely enhancing regional security and reducing the threat of weapons of mass destruction.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, America, Asia
  • Author: Isaiah Wilson III
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
  • Abstract: Changes in the global arms market during the 1990s heralded a global downsizing of national military establishments, shrinkage of national defense industries, and a domestic loss of appetite for conventional weaponry in the United States. One of the many results has been the increased significance of foreign exporting. Through enhanced exporting, advanced arms producing states, namely the United States, have been able to assist their defense industry and military establishments survive the post-cold war downturn in domestic demand for conventional arms. These international level changes also led to second-order domestic efforts to reform the arms export processes within the United States.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Nermeen Shaikh
  • Publication Date: 12-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia Society
  • Abstract: Talal Asad has conducted extensive research on the phenomenon of religion (and secularism), particularly the religious revival in the Middle East. Professor Asad is the author of Genealogies of Religion: Discipline and Reasons of Power in Christianity and Islam (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993). His new book, Formations of the Secular: Christianity, Islam, Modernity will be published by Stanford University Press in February 2003. Professor Asad is Distinguished Professor of Anthropology at the City University of New York (CUNY) Graduate Center.
  • Topic: Government, Religion
  • Political Geography: South Asia, Middle East
  • Author: Kongdan Oh
  • Publication Date: 03-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia Society
  • Abstract: A half-century of zero-sum confrontation between South and North Korea ended symbolically when the two leaders of divided Korea finally met on June 13, 2000. The 74-year-old Kim Dae-jung, president of South Korea (the Republic of Korea, or ROK), flew to Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, or DPRK), to meet his counterpart, 58-year-old Kim Jong-il, chairman of the National Defense Committee. At Sunan Airport, the two leaders embraced while thousands of mobilized North Koreans sent up rousing cheers. Tens of thousands more lined the motorcade route into the city, and millions around the world watched the television coverage, fighting to keep back tears of joy.
  • Topic: Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, Israel, East Asia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, Korea
  • Author: Michael Shifter
  • Publication Date: 11-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: Even within Latin America's generally gloomy economic and political outlook, the countries of the Andean region—Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia—stand out as especially problematic and unsettled. For the United States, this set of countries, with some 120 million citizens, poses enormous policy challenges. Fostering democracy, expanding trade, combating drugs, promoting stability, and advancing social development are just some of the challenges germane to this region which, in the context of globalization, post-September 11, become even more compelling.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, Colombia, South America, Latin America, Venezuela, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia
  • Author: Marco Palacios
  • Publication Date: 11-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: Ever more frequently, one hears that Colombia is at the point of disintegration. This concept could be developed in several ways. Let us look at two of them. A report in TIME magazine about a territory of 40 thousand square kilometers that President Pastrana marked out as a demilitarized zone in 1998, so as to proceed with peace negotiations with the FARC, claimed that: “Colombia is in danger of being divided into three parts, along lines dictated by the nation's mountain geography. The Marxist guerrillas are ascendant in the south; the government controls central areas and large urban centers; and right-wing, army backed paramilitary forces...hold sway in much of the north.” (Latin American Edition, September 28,1998).
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, Colombia, South America, Latin America
  • Author: Cynthia J. Arnson
  • Publication Date: 11-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: Over the last several months, and beginning most decisively in the spring of 2002, U.S. policy toward Colombia has gone through a significant shift. Traditionally defined in terms of counter-narcotics, and then expanded under Plan Colombia to include areas of democratic and economic strengthening and peace, U.S. policy is now focused squarely on security issues: improving the capacity of the Colombian government to combat left-wing guerrillas and right-wing paramilitaries; establishing an effective military presence throughout the national territory on which other state programs depend; and fighting the drug trade that finances all illegal armed groups. To illustrate the shift, consider the statements of two high- ranking U.S. officials. In August 2001, Undersecretary of State Marc Grossman told a Bogotá press conference that “we support Plan Colombia because...Plan Colombia recognizes that a negotiated settlement is the only way to achieve peace.” By March 2002, Secretary of State Colin Powell told a House subcommittee that “we have to help Colombia save its democracy from narcotraffickers and from terrorists.” The following discussion aims to understand how and why this shift came about, as well as its implications for U.S. interests and policy.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, Colombia, South America, Latin America
  • Author: Judyth L. Twigg
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Aspen Institute
  • Abstract: It has become routine for Russian policy makers to characterize their various health and social problems—rising male mortality, HIV/AIDS, illegal drug use, even pension system reform—as threats to the stability and national security of their country. Russia's importance to American national interests was thrown in sharp relief by the events of September 11 and their aftermath. A stable, prosperous Russia is a crucial partner in the war on terrorism. The fact that so many of Russia's health and social indicators remain stagnant or in decline, despite limited improvement along some dimensions, should therefore be troubling to the United States.
  • Topic: Government, Health, Human Welfare, Science and Technology, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Asia