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10901. A New World Economic Order: Overhauling the Global Economic Governance as a Result of the Financial Crisis, 2008–2009

Author:
Tapani Paavonen
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The recent economic crisis, 2008–2009,is commonly characterized as the worst since the Great Depression of 1929–1933. This recent crisis, called also the Great Recession, seems to form a turning-point in the global economic governance and the development of the world economy.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis

10902. A normative EU policy towards China: Mission impossible?

Author:
Mikael Mattlin
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
A vigorous debate is raging on the EU's normative roles in the global context. The EU actively promotes its political values outside of the Union, especially with regard to prospective accession countries. Yet, a normative foreign policy approach encounters considerable challenges when confronted with major powers, such as China and Russia that do not always share the political values promoted by the EU. Attempts at pursuing a normative policy towards these countries often come across as unserious or half-hearted. This paper discusses EU normative policy towards China, identifying loss of the moral high ground, conflicting interests of EU members and lack of leverage towards China as the three main factors hampering it. The paper argues that instead of a half-hearted offensive normative approach towards China, the EU may be better off with a more determined policy of defensive normativity. More broadly, the EU faces a stark choice between its desire to be a Normative Power and its wish to be a Great Power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Europe

10903. Why the EU fails: Learning from past experiences to succeed better next time

Author:
Timo Behr, Toby Archer, and Tuulia Nieminen
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Contemplating the reasons for “EU failure” might appear odd at the current moment of time. If anything, the European Union finally seems to be putting its house in order. !e ratification of the Lisbon Treaty has ended the EU's decade long institutional impasse. For the first time in its history, the EU has appointed a President of the European Council and a powerful new High Representative for its Foreign and Security Policy. EU member states are in the process of creating a European External Action Service (EEAS) to represent their common interests abroad. And the list of countries knocking on the EU's doors seems to grow longer by the day. In light of these recent developments, as well as given the EU's historical success as a “peace project”, there seem to be few apparent reasons to ponder EU failure. Doing so, to some, might even appear counterproductive.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Lisbon

10904. Lessons to Be Learned: Political Party Research and Political Party Assistance

Author:
Gero Erdmann
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Generally speaking, the effects of international political party assistance are viewed negatively, or at least controversially. This study attributes some of the shortcomings of political party aid to the poor relationship between assistance providers and political science party research. They simply operate in different worlds. Party assistance lacks clear-cut concepts and strategies in practice, which makes it difficult to adequately evaluate it. At issue is its “standard method,” with its “transformative” intention to change the party organization of the assistance receivers. At the same time, the scholarship on political parties can provide only limited help to assistance providers due to its own conceptual and methodological restrictions, such as the Western European bias underlying its major concepts, the predominance of a functionalist approach, and the scant empirical research on political parties out-side of Europe and the US. Taking a cue from recent political party research, we could begin to question the overarching role of political parties in the transition and consolidation process of new democracies. Other research findings emphasize the coexistence of different types of party organizations, and the possibility of different organizational developments, which might all be consistent with consolidating democracy. All this suggests the necessity of abandoning the controversial aim of the “transformative impact” of political party aid.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

10905. The Baffling Short-sightedness in the EU-Turkey-Cyprus Triangle

Author:
Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Diehard believers in Turkey's European future had, for a brief moment, hung their hopes on the European Parliament (EP) as the key to unlocking the poisonous stalemate in Turkey's ailing accession process. The glimmer of light had come with the Lisbon Treaty, which could have been used to unblock the stalemate over the Direct Trade Regulation (DTR) between the EU and northern Cyprus by granting a voice to the EP on the matter. Breaking the stalemate would not have magically removed all obstacles to Turkey's protracted accession process. But it would have breathed new life and instilled a dose of much-needed optimism in the troubled relations between Turkey and the Union. Alas, that opportunity has been lost and, with it, the short-term hope of a rosier future for Cyprus, Turkey and the EU as a whole.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Lisbon, and Cyprus

10906. Betting on Perseverance Why the Double Track Approach is Still the Best Way to Deal with the Iranian Nuclear Conundrum

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The standoff over Iran's nuclear programme, suspected of harbouring secret military ends, is widely considered a major flashpoint. A nuclear Iran – as the argument goes – would dramatically alter the regional balance in the Gulf, providing the Islamic Republic with a formidable deterrent against external aggression, while augmenting its ability to exert influence on its neighbours and eliminating the strategic advantage of its rival Israel, the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East. An Iranian bomb could also trigger a regional nuclear arms race since such countries as Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, might feel compelled to emulate Iran. This would in turn result in the eventual collapse of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime based on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Given the stakes, it comes as no surprise that curbing Iran's nuclear programme has rapidly become a foreign policy priority for western powers, Israel, and the majority of Arab states, which have a history of rivalry with and mistrust of Persian and Shia-dominated Iran.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

10907. The Azerbaijan-Russia-Turkey Energy Triangle and its Impact on the Future of Nagorno-Karabakh

Author:
Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Caucasian-Caspian region has become a stage for the collision of opposing foreign security and energy policies. After 16 years of a very fragile ceasefire, the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh continues to depend not only on the attitudes of the conflict parties, but also and perhaps even more on the re-organization of the region at the political, security and energy levels. Three main developments can affect the prospects for conflict resolution in Karabakh: the parties' growing frustration with the OSCE Minsk-Group mediation; the US-brokered Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and the deterioration in US-Azeri relations; and finally, Russia's resurgence in the region. These three inter-related factors could result in a new regional scenario marked by the emergence of an energy triangle between Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey, which in turn could impact on the destiny of Nagorno- Karabakh.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Energy Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Turkey, Soviet Union, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

10908. The State of Play of the Union for the Mediterranean in the Euro-Med Context

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The author examines problems related with the political identity of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), its relations with the EMP's Euro- Mediterranean "acquis" and the functioning of its institutions. While the UfM has been designed to give new momentum to the EU's cooperation with Mediterranean countries, results have hardly met ambitions so far. There is a lot the EU can do to increase the UfM profile: revise its institutional settings; create a parallel, but connected, multilateral dimension in the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy; quickly implement large-scale regional projects; expand cooperation to agriculture; and scale back the ambition that the UfM can promote political solidarity in the short- to mediumterm.
Topic:
International Relations, Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

10909. Dealing with Maritime Security in the Mediterranean Basin: The EU as a Multilateral Actor

Author:
Stefania Panebianco
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Global terrorism, irregular migration, proliferation of WMDs and piracy are all issues currently included in the EU's Mediterranean maritime security agenda. Due to the peculiar nature of these threats, the European Security Strategy claims that multilateral action is the most effective way to deal with these security threats. The involvement of regional and non-regional influential actors - both state and nonstate actors - is deemed crucial. Therefore, this analysis illustrates Mediterranean institutionalised security cooperation within many regional fora: EMP/UfM, NATO Mediterranean Dialogue, the Western Mediterranean Dialogue. Finally, some concrete actions are suggested for the EU to play an effective role.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Maritime Commerce, and Piracy
Political Geography:
Europe

10910. Balancing Diversity and Efficiency in the EU's Language Regime: E Pluribus Tres for the EU Patent?

Author:
Stephanie Locatelli
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Recently, the European Commission has breathed new life into the decade-long attempt to create a patent that would protect inventors throughout the European Union with a proposal making English, French, and German the sole languages of the EU patent. This would reduce the cost of patenting, thereby stimulating research and development within the EU. But the EU-wide patent has reached an impasse as member states struggle with the question of which languages should be used. Italy in particular has opposed the exclusion of Italian, raising more general questions about the language regime in the European Union. Are diversity and efficiency mutually exclusive, or is there a formula that can satisfy both criteria? It appears, in the end, that the Commission's proposal is the most effective way of cutting costs while at the same time preserving the multilingual character of the EU. For Italy, however, the question of trilingualism in the patent system has become a kind of litmus test of its rank within the EU.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Intellectual Property/Copyright
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

10911. The EU's Contribution to the Effectiveness of the UN Security Council: Representation, Coordination and Outreach

Author:
Nicoletta Pirozzi
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This paper aims to assess the EU's contribution to the work of the UN Security Council (UNSC) and outline the prospects for future developments under three main dimensions: representation, coordination and outreach. The first part analyses the EU's presence in terms of its unitary representation and coordination among the EU members of the UN Security Council, with a particular focus on the innovations introduced by the Lisbon Treaty. The second part is dedicated to the EU's contribution, in terms of process and outreach, to the main policy areas within the SC's competence. These include traditional SC matters, such as peacekeeping and non-proliferation, as well as emerging and still contested competences of the UN's supreme organ, such as climate change. The paper was prepared for the second meeting of Working Group I on “The Reform of the UN Security Council: What Role for the EU?”, held in Rome on 14 May 2010, in the framework of the IAI-University of Kiel project on “The European Union and the Reform of the United Nations” (Effective Multilateralism).
Topic:
United Nations and International Security
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Lisbon

10912. The Reform of the UN Security Council

Author:
Natalino Ronzitti
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This paper aims to review the proposals for reform of the UN Security Council (SC) put forward since the 1950s and evaluate the most recent ones in order to see whether reform is desirable and/or feasible. The author analyses key issues at the centre of the current debate on SC reform (size of an enlarged Council, categories of membership and regional representation, the veto, SC's working methods, relations with the General Assembly). He also examines the future role of the European Union in the SC, and such issues as closer coordination among EU members and the Lisbon Treaty's safeguards for the rights of permanent members, including the veto. The paper was prepared for the second meeting of Working Group I on “The Reform of the UN Security Council: What Role for the EU?”, held in Rome on 14 May 2010, in the framework of the IAI-University of Kiel project on “The European Union and the Reform of the United Nations” (Effective Multilateralism).
Topic:
United Nations
Political Geography:
Europe

10913. The Italian Government and NATO's New Strategic Concept

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The conservative report on NATO's new Strategic Concept, written by a group of experts chaired by Madeleine Albright, suits Italy's status-quo oriented agenda. As long as NATO does not shift its focus away from Europe, the renewed emphasis on expeditionary capabilities is acceptable to the Italian government. The Italians could also find comfort in the report's insistence on calibrating NATO ambitions to its actual resources and capacities. Italy could insist on making the advantages of NATO-EU cooperation more explicit, as this would favour EU defence integration, which in turn may help save money and maintain acceptable military standards. The section on NATO's relationship with Russia is the part of the Albright report with which Italy is perhaps most uncomfortable, as it seems to perpetuate NATO's ambiguity towards Russia. In the final analysis, assuming that the Albright report is a credible preview of the next Strategic Concept, the Italian government seems to have little reason to loose sleep over it.
Topic:
NATO and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Italy

10914. Report of the Seminar "The Reform of the UN Security Council: What Role for the EU?"

Author:
Jacopo Leone
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In the framework of the IAI-University of Kiel project on “The European Union and the Reform of the United Nations” (Effective Multilateralism), the present report offers an account of the positions and ideas that emerged during the second meeting of Working Group I on “The Reform of the UN Security Council: What Role for the EU?”, held in Rome on 14 May 2010. With its concise overview of all the papers presented at the conference and the relative debates, this report is meant to provide a basis for fruitful further reflection in view of the project's final conference, to be held in Berlin at the beginning of 2011.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, United Nations, and International Security
Political Geography:
Europe

10915. Italian Armed Forces under Pressure

Author:
Valerio Briani
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Italian defence budget is decreasing again. According to an analysis produced by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), in 2010 Italy will spend around €17,6 billion, or 1.13 percent of GDP, for defence. More worryingly, the budget is seriously unbalanced; personnel costs still gobbles up over 65% of the funds available for the Defence Function, while lack of resources will prevent troops recruiting (thus deepening the unbalance between troops and officers). Funding for the education and training of personnel, and equipment maintenance and support, is also decreasing. If the political and military leadership will not deal with this situation, the country runs the risk of having a military instrument that is unable to perform its duties fully.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

10916. Congress Should Account for the Excess Burden of Taxation

Author:
Christopher J. Conover
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
A well-established principle of public finance holds that taxes impose costs on society beyond the amount of revenue government collects. Estimates vary depending on the type of tax, but the “marginal excess burden” of federal taxes most likely ranges from 14 to 52 cents per dollar of tax revenue, averaging about 44 cents for all federal taxes.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

10917. Fiscal Policy Report Card on America's Governors: 2010

Author:
Chris Edwards
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
State governments have had to make tough budget choices in recent years. Tax revenues have stagnated as a result of the poor economy, and that has prompted governors to take a variety of fiscal actions to close large budget gaps. Some governors have cut spending to balance their budgets, while others have pursued large tax increases.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
America

10918. Scaling Up the Fight Against Rural Poverty

Author:
Johannes F. Linn, Richard Kohl, Homi Kharas, Arntraud Hartmann, and Barbara Massler
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has for many years stressed innovation, knowledge and scaling up as essential ingredients of its strategy to combat rural poverty in developing countries. This institutional review of IFAD's approach to scaling up is the first of its kind: A team of development experts were funded by a small grant from IFAD to assess IFAD's track record in scaling up successful interventions, its operational policies and processes, instruments, resources and incentives, and to provide recommendations to management for how to turn IFAD into a scaling-up institution. Beyond IFAD, this institutional scaling up review is a pilot exercise that can serve as an example for other development institutions.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Food

10919. Is a Regional Pact to Stabilize Afghanistan Possible?

Author:
Tom Gregg
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
At the London Conference on Afghanistan held on January 28, 2010, the government of Afghanistan and the international community stated that regionally owned and steered initiatives stood the best chance of success. President Karzai and President Obama echoed that theme during the former's May 2010 visit to Washington – their joint statement “underscored the importance of regional cooperation in promoting regional security and in combating illicit financial, criminal, and terrorist networks.”
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Washington

10920. Sexualised violence in conflict: Norwegian capacities and challenges

Author:
Randi Solhjell
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This report addresses the challenges and opportunities facing Norway in relation to the combat against sexualised and gender-based violence (SGBV) in war and conflict situations. In presenting a map of Norwegian actors and agencies in the field, it constitutes a critical resource that both emphasises Norway's potential to contribute and recommends proposals for improvement.
Topic:
Political Violence, Gender Issues, Human Rights, United Nations, and Sex Trafficking

10921. Sustainable security in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
Ben Zala
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This report summarises the analysis from a consultation of specialists on Latin America and the Caribbean applying the concept of sustainable security at a regional level. Hosted by Oxford Research Group (ORG) and the Norwegian Peacebuilding Centre (Noref), the recommendations include: Addressing political fragmentation in order to provide the capacity to respond effectively to the security challenges of climate change, militarisation and increasingly marginalised populations. A number of regional powers - particularly Brazil - are well placed to provide leadership but it would require a national consensus on a regional leadership role at a time when Brazil's focus is on developing a stronger global role; Initiatives such as the South American Defence Council should be given top priority in foreign and defence policies and their institutionalisation should be adequately funded and supported by all member states; New policy options are needed in the short-medium term to combat increasing environmental stresses and resource depletion; States across the region need to regain public confidence in relation to their ability to meet the security needs of their populations without resorting to military force. This will need to include steps to de-militarise the police, intelligence agencies and policies to limit the general remit as well as specific missions of the armed forces; Over the next 5-10 years, a radical shift towards sustainable approaches to security will be hugely important. If there is no change in thinking, security policies will continue to be based on the assumption that an elite minority can maintain its position, environmental problems can be marginalised, and the lid can be kept on dissent and insecurity.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Crime
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Caribbean

10922. The International Criminal Court in Africa: challenges and opportunities

Author:
Makau Mutua
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Norway's five-year experience as the lead nation of the Provincial Reconstruction Team This policy paper is a practically-oriented comparative analysis of the work of the International Criminal Court in Kenya, Uganda, Sudan, and the Central African Republic, and the policy implications for its work for Norway, States Parties, civil society, and key states. The paper argues that all actors, including Norway, should more seriously engage these African states – and key stakeholders within them – to facilitate the work of the ICC to stem impunity. Without such support, the paper concludes, the ICC's objectives in Africa will not be realised.
Topic:
Crime, Genocide, Human Rights, International Law, and Law
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Sudan, and Norway

10923. Harnessing Post-Conflict "Transitions": A Conceptual Primer

Author:
Nicholas J. Armstrong and Jacqueline Chura-Beaver.
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, members of the international community have undertaken more than 20 major operations to stabilize post-conflict societies, yielding mixed results. Stability operations are tremendously complex and demand successful direction of multiple, simultaneous transitions that range from transforming violent conflict to a sustainable, peaceful environment, to the process of forging sustainable governing institutions from fragile or nonexistent infrastructure. Yet, the very notion of transition eludes policymakers, professionals, and scholars because the concept lacks precise meaning, and its application varies according to context and conditions. At no other time has understanding transition been more critical, especially as “clear, hold, build, transition” becomes the dominant theme for ongoing operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Together, professionals and academics share the challenge and opportunity to improve how the international community conducts stability operations—through the comprehensive understanding and implementation of transition.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Theory, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq

10924. Preparing for One War and Getting Another?

Author:
Antulio J. Echevarria II
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Current trends in defense thinking show signs of being influenced by the notion that preparing for one form of war has brought about another. We find evidence of this notion in a number of official speeches, the 2008 National Defense Strategy, and the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Report. It is captured in the almost routine claim that America's superiority in conventional warfare is so great that it is driving our adversaries toward irregular methods. All of these examples share the basic assumption that we are now fighting (and will likely continue to fight) conflicts for which we have not prepared—precisely because we have not prepared for them. Thus, the modern complement—a preparation paradox—to the old Latin adage “If you want peace, prepare for war,” might well be “If you want one kind of war, prepare for another.”
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Terrorism, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States and America

10925. Dilemmas of Brazilian Grand Strategy

Author:
Hal Brands
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This monograph analyzes Brazilian grand strategy under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. During Lula's nearly 8 years in office, he has pursued a multipronged grand strategy aimed at hastening the transition from unipolarity and Western economic hegemony to a multipolar order in which international rules, norms, and institutions are more favorable to Brazilian interests. Lula has done so by emphasizing three diplomatic strategies: soft balancing against the United States, building coalitions to magnify Brazilian negotiating power, and seeking to position Brazil as the leader of a more united South America.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Brazil, South America, and Latin America

10926. Crime and Insurgency in the Tribal Areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Gretchen Peters
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Insurgent and terror groups operating in the tribal areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan are deepening their involvement in organized crime, an aspect of the conflict that at once presents enormous challenges and also potential opportunities for Coalition forces trying to implement a population‐centric counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy. Within a realm of poor governance and widespread state corruption, anti‐state actors engage in and protect organized crime—mainly smuggling, extortion and kidnapping—both to raise funds and also to spread fear and insecurity, thus slowing the pace of development and frustrating attempts to extend the rule of law and establish a sustainable licit economy. Militant groups on either side of the frontier function like a broad network of criminal gangs, not just in terms of the activities in which they engage, but also in the way they are organized, how funds flow through their command chains and how they interact—and sometimes fight—with each other. There is no doubt that militant groups have capitalized on certain public grievances, yet their ties to criminal profiteering, along with the growing number of civilian casualties they cause on both sides of the frontier, have simultaneously contributed to a widening sense of anger and frustration among local communities. Through a series of focused and short anecdotal case studies, this paper aims to map out how key groups engage in criminal activity in strategic areas, track how involvement in illicit activity is deepening or changing and illustrate how insurgent and terror groups impose themselves on local communities as they spread to new territory. It is hoped that a closer examination of this phenomenon will reveal opportunities for disrupting the problem, as well as illustrate how Coalition forces, the international community and moderate Muslim leaders might capitalize on an untapped public relations opportunity by better protecting local communities who are the main victims of it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Afghanistan

10927. Victim and rebel: Al-Qaida's salafist rhetoric and the pitfalls of anti-terrorism

Author:
Lars Erslev Andersen
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Following the July 2005 London terrorist attacks the focus of anti-terrorism efforts has moved towards radicalisation within European societies and away from the conflicts in the Middle East and South Asia. This report argues that this shift in focus is based on a misconstrual of al-Qaida as it mistakes effect for cause. Based on an examination of the communication strategy of al-Qaida and the political rhetoric of Salafism the need for an analysis of militant Salafism in its political and societal context is demonstrated. The radicalisation theory is criticised and it is argued that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the increased focus on efforts to counter radicalisation within European societies more or less have failed because al-Qaida has been able to exploit this strategy and reorganise itself around an operational centre in Pakistan. The report concludes that only politically viable solutions in South Asia and the Middle East can effectively suppress al-Qaida and militant Salafism.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Mass Media, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Europe, South Asia, and Middle East

10928. Some of the Best Weapons for Counterinsurgents Do Not Shoot

Author:
Eric T. Olson
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
If the U.S. Army's current experience in ongoing overseas operations like those in Iraq and Afghanistan are any indication, reconstruction has become an integral part of the American way of war. And judging from the disappointing results of reconstruction efforts in these operations, measured mostly in terms of the effect that such efforts have had on the course of these wars, there is much lacking in the Army's understanding of reconstruction itself and the role that it will likely play in all future operations, especially in counterinsurgencies (COIN).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

10929. An Army Transformed: The U.S. Army's Post-Vietnam Recovery and the Dynamics of Change in Military Organizations

Author:
Suzanne C. Nielsen
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
During the 2 decades preceding the Persian Gulf War in 1991, the U.S. Army went through tremendous reform and rejuvenation. It recovered from the Vietnam War, transitioned to an all-volunteer personnel model, and refocused on a potential future war against a very capable adversary in Europe. The Army's transformation was evident to external observers: from being seen as an organization in distress in the early 1970s, by 1991 the Army became an organization whose professionalism was the source of admiration. Drawing on the relevant literature, the author seeks to explain this important case of military change.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Vietnam

10930. Somalia: Line in the Sand--Identification of MYM Vulnerabilities

Author:
Eloy E. Cuevas and Madeleine Wells
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The influence of Islam on governance and clan politics has both negatively and positively affected the people of Somalia. It has facilitated justifying the removal of national, regional, and grassroots or clan leadership, especially if socioeconomic conditions and quality of life standards have been degraded or the leadership failed to ensure the safety of the people. Additionally, charismatic clan leaders have leveraged the low level of education among the Somali population to incite leadership changes. On a positive note, enforcement of Islamic law (Sharia) has been a major factor in helping to stabilize the lawlessness that has gone unchecked throughout the ungoverned parts of Somalia. By establishing courts and increasing the appointment of judges, Islamic leaders have attempted to bring normalcy to people's daily lives, amid all the street-level battles, clan intra and interconnected struggles for leadership and influence, and the presence of foreign fighters on both sides of the conflict.
Topic:
Diplomacy, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa

10931. U.S. Military Forces and Police Assistance in Stability Operations: The Least-Worst Option to Fill the U.S. Capacity Gap

Author:
Dennis E Keller
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Establishing an effective local police force is one of the most critical elements of successful counterinsurgency (COIN) and stability operations, but it is a task for which the U.S. Government is the least prepared and capable. The establishment of an effective police force is critical to security sector reform, justice sector reform, and the successful transition to the host nation's security forces. But the United States lacks the institutional capacity to provide an immediate and coordinated civilian police training and advisory effort, particularly in a failed or fragile state. Because hesitation in addressing such problems causes delays in forming and training new police forces, and, even worse, emboldens corrupt and abusive locals who enable insurgents, terrorist groups, and organized criminal networks, the U.S. military must be prepared to support stability operations at regional level and below by assessing, advising, and even training police units until such time as civilian police trainers and mentors arrive on the ground.
Topic:
Crime, Counterinsurgency, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
United States

10932. Chinese Energy Security: The Myth of the PLAN's Frontline Status

Author:
Ryan Clarke
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This monograph examines the dynamics of China's energy security dilemma and the role of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). Following this, PLAN development is discussed, and its future role in regional security is hypothesized. This report argues that it is domestic market inefficiencies and poor management practices that pose the greatest threat to China's energy security. Further, less and less of Chinese energy imports are making their way to the country by sea; thus the PLAN actually has a minimal role to play. Given these realities, Chinese fears of a naval blockade that deprives it of energy supplies as well as American confidence that this is a realistic strategic option in the event of hostilities are implausible. In addition, Beijing's desire to develop aircraft carriers and other high-tech naval capabilities combined with its contribution to the anti-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden have led many analysts to erroneously conclude that China seeks to engage in global power projection like the United States. However, the focus of the PLAN will remain regional and on asymmetric capabilities, namely, the effective use of submarines and other undersea devices that ultimately seek to deter American and possible Japanese involvement in a conflict over Taiwan and/or in the South China Sea, such as the Spratly Islands, which China views as inalienable parts of its territory. Although China's interests are expanding and becoming more international in nature, recovering from the century of humiliation and ensuring domestic legitimacy remain the top priorities of China's leadership.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
China

10933. Assets, Shocks, and Poverty Traps in Rural Mozambique

Author:
Lena Giesbert and Kati Schindler
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Using a micro-level approach to poverty traps, this paper explores welfare dynamics among households in post-war rural Mozambique. Conceptually, the paper builds on an asset-based approach to poverty and tests empirically, with household panel data, for the existence of a poverty trap. Findings indicate that there is little differentiation in productive asset endowments over time and that rural households gravitate towards a single equilibrium, which is at a surprisingly low level. The analysis shows that shocks and household coping behavior help to explain the observed poverty dynamics. The single low-level equilibrium points to an overall development trap in the rural farm-based economy. This is attributed to the long-term impact of the civil war, which has consolidated unfavorable economic conditions in rural areas and limited new economic opportunities outside of the agricultural sector.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

10934. Comprehensive Food Security: An Approach to Sustainably Address Food Insecurity

Author:
Pau Khan Khup Hangzo
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Food security has become one of this century's key global challenges. Given current population and consumption trends, as well as the factors of climate change and resource scarcity, the situation is set to worsen—unless drastic actions are taken. The multi-dimensional nature of the food problem requires a comprehensive approach, one that not only addresses food production and availability but also deals with access issues. Only then can sustainable food security be achieved.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, and Food
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10935. The Development of a Gulf Carbon Platform: Mapping out the Gulf Cooperation Council Carbon Exchange

Author:
Justin Dargin
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have some of the highest greenhouse gas emissions rates per capita in the world. This paper argues that in spite of the extremely high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rates, GCC members will benefit economically, environmentally and geopolitically by constructing a harmonized pan-GCC carbon trading platform that will allow them to make cost-efficient decisions about greenhouse gas abatement. A thorough analysis is undertaken to determine which GHG abatement mechanism would be the best suited for the GCC, with maximum cost and environmental benefits. Based on the unique characteristics of the GCC members, a pan-GCC cap-and-trade framework is suggested. Optimally, policy makers would institute it in a phased, voluntary introduction, to be gradually replaced by a mandatory scheme. If the GCC countries implement such a system, they would be able to rationalize their energy usage for domestic power production, and conserve their oil and gas production for future generations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

10936. Toward Deeper Reductions in U.S. and Russian Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Micah Zenko
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
President Barack Obama has made reductions in the United States' nuclear arsenal and a decreased reliance on nuclear weapons major foreign policy priorities for his administration. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), signed in April 2010 by President Obama and Russia's president, Dmitry Medvedev, represents concrete movement toward these goals—goals that both presidents share. This follow-on accord to the 1991 START Treaty limits the United States and Russia to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear and conventional war - heads, 800 strategic launchers, and 700 deployed strategic missiles and bombers. Yet while the New START Treaty represents a substantial decrease from Cold War levels, the United States will retain around 2,000 deployed strategic and tactical nuclear weapons and Russia will maintain approximately 3,500 deployed strategic and tactical nuclear weapons—which together will constitute over 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

10937. Internet Governance in an Age of Cyber Insecurity

Author:
Robert K. Knake
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The United States is being outmaneuvered in the international forums that will determine the future of the Internet. Led by Russia and China, nondemocratic regimes are organizing into a united front to promote a vision of the Internet that is tightly controlled by states. That vision is increasingly attractive to many Western nations wrestling with interrelated threats of cybercrime, industrial espionage, and cyber warfare. The United States must actively combat these threats while it works to protect U.S. national interests in the preservation and extension of the Internet as a platform for increased efficiency and economic exchange. Protecting this interest requires far more extensive engagement within Internet governance forums to shape the future of the network in a way that addresses security concerns without resulting in a cure that is worse than the disease.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Science and Technology, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and China

10938. Providing Energy Services in a Changing Industry

Author:
James E. Rogers
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
July 1, 2010. Anyone following the path of an electron today could be excused for thinking he or she was in the wrong millennium. “Dinosaurs” still rule the world. Large, central power stations produce the vast majority of electricity. Coal, natural gas, some oil, or uranium enters on one end. Electrons and various other byproducts—some innocuous, most not—leave on the other, pushed over long distances across aging transmission lines. Many get lost along the way.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Globalization, Oil, and Law

10939. The New World of Natural Gas

Author:
John M. Deutch
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The development of natural gas from shale is providing new possibilities for gas use in the United States and throughout the world. The largest conventional natural gas deposits are concentrated in the Middle East and Russia, but unconventional natural gas, including shale, is spread throughout the world, potentially permitting development in many different countries.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Globalization
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Middle East

10940. A Staircase in Nahr El Bared: The Future of Palestinian Refugees in Lebanon

Author:
Nadim Shehadi
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
LEBANON'S RELATIONS WITH Palestinian refugees, one of the most sensitive issues in the country, was put at the forefront of parliamentary and public debates on June 15, 2010, when a series of legislative proposals were presented to re-examine the refugees' legal status and to resolve the issues surrounding their civil rights. It was the culmination of a national discussion that began in 2005, in which a new atmosphere advocating the examination of the refugee issues started to emerge.
Topic:
War and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Lebanon

10941. An Electricity Grid for the 21st Century

Author:
Linda Stuntz and Susan Tomasky
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
For many years, electricity transmission has been designed to provide enough interconnection to provide affordable, reliable supplies of electricity. Recent developments in market mechanisms, technologies and policy goals have begun to pose different requirements on the existing grid system. To meet the needs of all beneficiaries of transmission enhancements, new planning, siting and cost allocation strategies must be implemented.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Industrial Policy

10942. U.S. Strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan

Author:
Richard L. Armitage and Samuel R. Berger
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Al-Qaeda's attack on September 11, 2001, was the deadliest terrorist assault on the United States in history. In the hours and days that followed, Americans learned more about the perpetrators and their links to bases and networks in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Less than a month later, President George W. Bush launched Operation Enduring Freedom. Much changed nearly overnight as the United States focused military, economic, and diplomatic attention squarely on the region for the first time since the end of the Cold War. In Afghanistan, the Taliban regime—al-Qaeda's sympathetic host—was toppled. In Pakistan, the Pervez Musharraf regime was drafted into Washington's Global War on Terror.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States

10943. Catalyzing Support for Small Growing Businesses in Developing Countries: Mapping the Policies of International Development Donors Investors

Author:
Estera Barbarasa
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
This report depicts the landscape of development organizations that fund and support small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in developing countries: multilateral development banks, bilateral government donor agencies, and development finance institutions (DFIs). The report is a new contribution to both the development community, as well as the Aspen Network of Development Entrepreneurs (ANDE). Advocacy and policy work is a strategic priority for ANDE, and the report's findings will enable the Network to understand the international development community and to be more strategic in its approach as it seeks to influence and shape the international development SME agenda.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Third World, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment

10944. Innovations in Cooperation: A Guidebook on Bilateral Agreements to Address Health Worker Migration

Author:
Robert Kapp, Ibadat S. Dhillon, and Margaret E. Clark
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
There is limited international structure to manage the ever important phenomenon of human migration and its associated challenges. This is particularly true with respect to the international migration of health workers, where bilateral agreements between sending and receiving nations have been repeatedly and urgently called for in the context of a global health workforce crisis. There remains, however, significant lack of clarity on the precise role, form, and content bilateral agreements should take to serve a health-related purpose. This Guidebook, including presentation of two model bilateral agreements, aims to provide guidance to further international cooperation around the critical and highly sensitive area of health worker migration.
Topic:
Health, International Cooperation, and Health Care Policy

10945. Congress and National Security

Author:
Kay King
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Much has been written, blogged, and broadcast in the past several years about the dysfunction of the U.S. Congress. Filibusters, holds, and poison pill amendments have become hot topics, albeit intermittently, as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have increasingly exploited these tactics in pursuit of partisan or personal ends. Meanwhile, such pressing national issues as deficit reduction, immigration reform, and climate change have gone unresolved. To be fair, the 111th Congress has addressed many significant issues, but those it has addressed, such as health-care reform and economic stimulus, exposed Americans to a flawed process of backroom deals that favors obstruction over deliberation, partisanship over statesmanship, and narrow interests over national concerns. Although partisan politics, deal making, and parliamentary maneuvering are nothing new to Congress, the extent to which they are being deployed today by lawmakers and the degree to which they obstruct the resolution of national problems are unprecedented. This may explain why Congress registered a confidence level of only 11 percent in July 2010, marking its lowest rating ever in the annual Gallup institutional confidence survey and ranking it last among sixteen major U.S. institutions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and War
Political Geography:
United States

10946. Madagascar : la crise A un tournant critique ?

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En mars 2009, acculé par des manifestations, ainsi que par une mutinerie de l'armée, l'ancien président Marc Ravalomanana remet le pouvoir à un directoire militaire, qui le transmet immédiatement au maire de la capitale de l'époque, Andry Rajoelina, meneur des mouvements de contestation. 1 A la tête de l'Etat depuis lors, la Haute au- torité de la transition (HAT) monopolise le pouvoir, alors qu'une opposition structurée en « mouvances » représen- tant les anciens présidents du pays réclame une gestion inclusive et consensuelle de la transition defait, ouverte par la chute de Ravalomanana et l'installation au pouvoir de la HAT. 2 Ce mode de gestion av ait fait l'objet d'accords en 2009 à Maputo et à Addis-Abeba entre les quatre chefs de mouvances, mais ceuxci ont été annulés de manière unilatérale par le président de la HAT.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Politics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

10947. Energy Innovation: Driving Technology Competition and Cooperation Among the U.S., China, India, and Brazil

Author:
Adam Segal, Elizabeth C. Economy, Michael A. Levi, and Shannon K. O'Neil
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
If governments are to respond effectively to the challenge of climate change, they will need to ramp up their support for innovation in low-carbon technologies and make sure that the resulting developments are diffused and adopted quickly. Yet for the United States, there is a tension inherent in these goals: the country's interests in encouraging the spread of technology can clash with its efforts to strengthen its own economy of particular importance is the spread of low-carbon technologies from the United States to the major emerging economies—China, India, and Brazil. Washington's strategy to promote the spread of low-carbon technologies to these countries must combine efforts to grow and open markets for low-carbon technologies with active support for accelerating the innovation and diffusion of these technologies. Its strategy will also need to reflect the unique challenges presented by each of the three countries.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, Washington, and Brazil

10948. Congo : Pas de stabilité au Kivu malgré le rapprochement avec le Rwanda

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le plan de résolution du conf lit au Kivu consistant à pri-vilégier la solution militaire s'avère être un échec. Deux années après le début du rapprochement entre le président Congolais Joseph Kabila et son homologue rwandais Paul Kagame, les soldats gouvernementaux sont encore aux prises avec des miliciens pour le contrôle des terres et des zones minières. Bien qu'aucune des deux parties n'ait réellement les capacités de pr endre un ascendant définitif, elles ont toutes deux les ressources suffisantes pour prolonger la lutte. Dans le même temps, les civils subissent des violences extrêmes et la situation humanitaire se dété-riore. Les tensions ethniques se sont aggravées à l'annonce des plans de rapatriement de dizaines de milliers de réfu-giés congolais qui ont fui au Rwanda durant les années 1990. Le Conseil de Sécurité des Nations Unies a observé la situation se dégrader à l'est du Congo sans s'opposer aux décisions de Kagame et Kabila.
Topic:
Civil War, Diplomacy, Economics, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

10949. Hydropolitics in Pakistan's Indus Basin

Author:
Daanish Mustafa
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Water problems in Pakistan result largely from poor management, but the consequences of management failures are accentuated, both materially and politically, by international and subnational hydropolitics. There is enough water in the Indus basin to provide for the livelihoods of its residents for a long time, provided that the water is managed efficiently and equitably and that additional water is made available not just through storage but, more importantly, through higher efficiency and intersectoral transfers. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) seems to moderate the worst impulses of India and Pakistan toward each other, and perhaps therein lies IWT's greatest strength. Pakistani engineers typically interpret the IWT's extensive technical annexures very literally, whereas the Indian engineers tend to emphasize the treaty's criteria for techno-economi¬cally sound project design. No single completed or proposed Indian project on the three western rivers of the Indus basin alone has the potential to significantly limit flows of water to Pakistan. But the long list of proposed Indian projects on the those rivers will in the future give India the cumulative storage capacity to reduce substantively water flows to Pakistan during the low-flow winter months. The IWT, by performing an amputation surgery on the basin, made matters simple and allowed India and Pakistan to pursue their nationalist agendas without much need for more sophisticated and involved cooperation in the water field. This lack of cooperative sharing of water leaves the ecological and social consequences of the treaty to be negotiated and contested at the subnational scale. The interprovincial conflict over water distribution in Pakistan has potential—albeit entirely avoidable—repercussions for stability, at both the subnational and international levels. Instead of constructing very expensive, environmentally damaging, and economically dubious water-storage megaprojects in Pakistan, enhancement of the existing infrastructure's efficiency, coupled with better on-farm water management and more appropriate irrigation and farming techniques, would perhaps more than make up for any additional water that might be gained from megaprojects. Since the drought in southern Pakistan in the latter half of the 1990s, the single-minded focus of the Pakistani water bureaucracy on water development has made the issue of the construction of the Kalabagh Dam project a surrogate for a litany of Sindhi grievances against the Punjabi-dominated political, military, and bureaucratic system in Pakistan. The emphasis on maximizing water withdrawals and on greater regulation of the Indus river system contributed to accentuating the very high flood peaks in 2010. Although the floods are being used by the pro-dams lobby to call for construction of more storage on the Indus, the tragedy ought to inspire a more nuanced and comprehensive reevaluation of the water-management system in the basin. The IWT is a product of its time and could be fruitfully modified and renegotiated to bring it more in line with contemporary international watercourse law, the Helsinki rules, and emerging concerns with water quality, environmental sustainability, climate change, and principles of equitable sharing. But that renegotiation, if it ever happens, is going to be contingent upon significant improvement in bilateral relations between India and Pakistan. India could be more forthcoming with flow data and be more prompt and open in communicating its planned projects on the Indus basin to Pakistan, particularly in the western basin. Pakistan can engage with India within the context of the IWT more positively than defensively, and also educate its media and politicians so as not to sensationalize essentially technical arguments by presenting them as existential threats.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Water
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and India

10950. Why Sudan's Popular Consultation Matters

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Largely unnoticed outside the region, the Sudanese states of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile have begun the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)–mandated process of popular consultation, which permits Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile to either adopt the CPA as the final settlement between the two states and the Government of Sudan (GoS) or renegotiate the CPA to remedy any shortcomings and reach a final settlement. The first phase of the popular consultation process involves civic education campaigns to inform the two states' populations of the contents of the CPA and the issues at stake. The second phase is the consultations themselves, which are to be conducted by a commission in each state. The results of the consultations will be reported to the state assemblies and inform the positions taken by the states during negotiations with the central government. A successful popular consultation could begin to transform Sudanese politics by realigning political interests from political parties to the states and could provide a test case for new governance structures between the center and the states. A neglected or mismanaged process could destabilize not just Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile, but all of Sudan. The international community can contribute to a successful process through financial assistance, monitoring and reporting, promoting reconciliation within the population, and engaging directly with Khartoum and Juba to smooth negotiations. It might also anticipate possible procedural challenges and prepare to engage in creative and quiet diplomacy should the need arise.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan