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10602. Gramáticas de acción, retorno de experiencia y arte para resolver los problemas
- Author:
- Pierre Tripier
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- This article emphasizes the utility, in social sciences, of concepts like “grammar”, “grammar of action” and “grammar of interpretation of a situation” as used in Clausewitz's work and in The Art of War. Two empirical examples illustrate this subject: the first one is analyzed by the novelist Karl Weick and the second by the expert in military tactics, Lieu-tenant Colonel Michel Goya. This demonstrates the necessity to use the concept of “grammar” in sociological investigations. If Sociology would like to latter and be like other sciences, sociologist should not be satisfied to establish diagnosis, but should dare prognostics and to help decisions with the assistance of those grammars.
- Topic:
- Communications and Sociology
10603. Getting along with Gulliver: A Review of Finnish-German Relations
- Author:
- Glenn R. Gassen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Since Paavo Lipponen left the Prime Minister's Office in 2003, Finland's relationship with Germany seems to have grown more distant. While Lipponen had a markedly pro-German attitude, the present government has adopted a more sober and pragmatic approach. But does this change in rhetoric indicate a different approach? A decade ago, it seemed self-evident that for Finland, Germany was considered “as an important – if not the most important – partner in Europe.”1But what importance does Germany hold for Finland today?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Finland, and Germany
10604. Côte d'Ivoire: sécuriser le processus électoral
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Already delayed six times, Côte d'Ivoire's presidential election is still some way off. Over two months after President Gbagbo dissolved the Independent Electoral Commission (Commission Électorale Indépendante, CEI) and the government, preparations are at a virtual standstill. The process of electoral identification already carries serious risks of violence. Armed groups and militias, the resurgence of xenophobic language and a challenging socio-economic situation make for an explosive environment, threatening the stability of this key West African country. Unless its politicians urgently meet the challenge of escalating tensions, accelerate electoral preparations and desist from hate speech, and unless regional, UN and other international partners establish the operational, political and security mechanisms necessary to prevent violence, the peace process could very well collapse, with dramatic consequences for the country and its neighbours. Côte d'Ivoire's civil war erupted in September 2002, when a section of the army attempted a coup d'Etat. The coup failed, but the insurgent soldiers took control of the northern part of the country. With the arrival of young intellectuals and under the leadership of former student leader Guillaume Soro, they articulated grievances that northerners were treated as second class citizens. An on-and-off war continued until the signing of the Ouagadougou Political Agreement in March 2007, which considerably calmed the situation. Since the middle of 2009, however, tensions have risen again over the electoral process and the question of Ivorian identity and nationality.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Politics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United Nations
10605. Cameroon: Fragile State?
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Cameroon's apparent stability in a turbulent region cannot be taken for granted. The co-option of elites through the distribution of state largesse, and the emigration of many educated young people provide a certain safety valve for tensions, but the failure of reform and continued poor governance mean people no longer believe in the rule of law or peaceful political change. Multiple risks of conflict exist in the build-up to presidential elections in 2011 and beyond. This background report, Crisis Group's first on Cameroon, analyses the historical roots of the current impasse.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Politics, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
10606. Lebanon's Politics: The Sunni Community and Hariri's Future Current
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The June 2009 swearing in as prime minister of Saad Hariri, leader of the Sunni Future Current movement, marks a turning point, the end of a period of exceptional domestic political turbulence and regional tensions that began with the 2005 murder of his father, Rafic; led to institutional paralysis; and culminated with the violent May 2008 showdown between government and opposition. It also presents the new leader with a host of novel challenges. The man who took the helm of a once deeply divided Sunni community must discard much of what enabled his rise, if he is to succeed now that he is in power. With Hizbollah, the principal Shiite movement, he must move away from the sectarianism that has become Lebanon's political stock-and-trade. The Future Current should initiate the process of becoming a more genuine, institutionalised party, breaking from the clientelism that will otherwise inhibit the prime minister's transition from community leader to statesman. And Hariri must continue to navigate the difficult normalisation with Syria, over coming deep mistrust among his constituency toward Damascus.
- Topic:
- Islam, Politics, Governance, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
10607. A Force in Fragments: Reconstituting the Afghan National Army
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- For nearly a decade, the Afghan military has been promoted as the cornerstone of counterinsurgency in the country. Billed as a rare success story in a conflict with few bright spots, the Afghan armed forces will undoubtedly prove pivotal to stabilising Afghanistan. Yet nine years after the fall of the Taliban, there appears to be little agreement between the government of President Hamid Karzai and its international backers on what kind of army the country needs, how to build it or which elements of the insurgency the Afghan army should be fighting. Persistent structural flaws meanwhile have undermined the military's ability to operate independently. Ethnic frictions and political factionalism among high-level players in the Ministry of Defence (MOD) and the general staff have also stunted the army's growth. As a result, the army is a fragmented force, serving disparate interests, and far from attaining the unified national character needed to confront numerous security threats. There is a strong need to strengthen civilian input into military development, confront corruption and factionalism within the MOD and general staff and to place sustainability of the armed forces at the forefront of Afghanistan's national security strategy.
- Topic:
- Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban
10608. The Rule of Law in Independent Kosovo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- More than two years after declaring independence, Kosovo struggles with uneven rule of law and a weak justice system that is failing its citizens. The police, public prosecutors and courts are erratic performers, prone to political interference and abuse of office. Organised crime and corruption are widespread and growing. Realising that prosperity, relations with the European Union (EU) and affirmation as an independent state depend on the rule of law, the government has taken important steps, replacing key officials and passing long-delayed reforms. But critical weaknesses remain, notably in the courts, and the government, supported by the international community, must act swiftly to curtail them.
- Topic:
- Government and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans
10609. Sudan: Regional Perspectives on the Prospect of Southern Independence
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- South Sudan is just eight months away from a self-determination referendum that will likely result in its secession from the North. Much remains to be done to implement the outstanding elements of Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), and time is running out. The agreement's underlying aim of “making unity attractive” has failed, and most Southerners thus appear determined to choose independence. Neighbouring states are increasingly focused on the fragile circumstances in Sudan and the likelihood of a newly independent state in the region. Support from Sudan's neighbours for the referendum process and respect for its result will be crucial to ensuring peace and stability in the country and the region.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
10610. War Crimes in Sri Lanka
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Sri Lankan security forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) repeatedly violated international humanitarian law during the last five months of their 30-year civil war. Although both sides committed atrocities throughout the many years of conflict, the scale and nature of violations particularly worsened from January 2009 to the government's declaration of victory in May. Evidence gathered by the International Crisis Group suggests that these months saw tens of thousands of Tamil civilian men, women, children and the elderly killed, countless more wounded, and hundreds of thousands deprived of adequate food and medical care, resulting in more deaths.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, International Law, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Sri Lanka
10611. Amin Rihani, 1876-1940: The Apostle of the Arab-American Relationship
- Author:
- Irfan Shahid
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
- Abstract:
- The tragic events of Black September, 2001, the year that opened the twenty-first century and the third millennium, more popularly called 9/11, is now a landmark in American history that is deeply carved in the psyche of the American people and is annually perpetuated by commemorative anniversaries. It practically destroyed the bridges that had been constructed between America and the Arab-Muslim world. What had been America's main adversary in the Cold War, namely Communism, has now become the Arabs and the Islamic world, which, ironically, had been America's allies against Communism.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Islam, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, and Arabia
10612. China and the South China Sea: Two Faces of Power in the Rising China's Neighborhood Policy
- Author:
- Erik Beukel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The South China Sea is subject to competing claims of sovereignty by the littoral states. Due to the number of claimants and the complexity of claims, it is called the “mother of all territorial disputes”. China is far the biggest country in the region and claims sovereignty over almost all the South China Sea. This Working Paper elaborates the claims and considers the implications for China's neighborhood relations and the alignments in the Asia-Pacific. The focus is on two faces of power in China's policy, military power and soft power, after China's seizure of Mischief Reef in 1995 that upset its neighbors. China attaches great weight to developing good neighborhood relations and has become an advocate of soft power. However, when it concerns the South China Sea the soft power approach is combined with a continuing use of military power to strengthen its position. It is concluded that the two faces of power present China with new unwieldy challenges.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Southeast Asia
10613. From Rome to Kampala: The U.S. Approach to the 2010 International Criminal Court Review Conference
- Author:
- Vijay Padmanabhan and Benjamin N. Cardozo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- For the foreseeable future the United States is unlikely to become a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC), the international tribunal in The Hague responsible for prosecuting human rights atrocities and war crimes. From the time the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (the “Rome Statute”)—the treaty that established the ICC—was negotiated in 1998, the United States has voiced strong concerns about the ICC exercising jurisdiction over nationals of nonparties and the ICC prosecutor's authority to investigate and prosecute suspects without the approval of the UN Security Council. Those concerns have not been alleviated, and the Obama administration has said that it will not seek U.S. Senate approval of the Rome Statute in the near future. Even if the treaty were submitted to the Senate, the Senate would not approve it in its current form. Moreover, U.S. concerns could be exacerbated by modifications to the Rome Statute ICC members may make in the coming months.
- Topic:
- Crime, Human Rights, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States
10614. Furthering Democracy through the European Union's Development Policy: Legal Limitations and Possibilities
- Author:
- Morten Broberg
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This working paper provides an analysis of the efforts by the European Union to support democracy building in developing countries. It focuses on the specific question of the legal obligations of, and limits for, the European Union in seeking to further democracy through its policies directed at developing countries. The core of the paper is an examination of the legal framework governing the Union's relations with developing countries and the possibilities for furthering democracy. The paper considers the European Union's determination of whether a third country complies, in legal terms, with its 'democratic obligations', and how it is able to control and sanction non-compliance. On the basis of these examinations the possibilities of furthering democracy and the rule of law in the Union's development cooperation legislation are analysed.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, International Law, Third World, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
10615. The Multiplicity of Climate and Rural Risk
- Author:
- Ian Christoplos
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This paper looks at rural risk in relation to climate change, globalisation and other factors, with a focus on how these risks are perceived and managed with-in different policy frames and among local institutions involved with agriculture and rural development. The changing and multidimensional landscape of risk is analysed in terms of how it impacts on natural resource management governance, strategies and decision-making. Pro-poor growth and community-based risk reduction policies are contrasted so as to highlight their implications for local actors struggling to deal with climate variability and market volatility. Food security is presented as an example of an area where policy coherence in responding to these multiple challenges is lacking, but where rural people and institutions are adapting in their own ways. The study suggests a number of entry points for further research that could be used to better align climate change efforts with the perceptions and priorities of rural populations at risk.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Globalization, Poverty, and Third World
10616. Measuring Geopolitical Power in India: A Review of the National Security Index (NSI)
- Author:
- Karl Hwang
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- This review examines how India perceives its own rise to power by undertaking a detailed analysis of the Indian National Security Index (NSI) for the period from 2003 to 2008. Like other power formulas, the NSI includes various indicators of power, though it is uniquely Indian in that it initially emphasized human development and later included ecology based on a holistic human‐security paradigm. The analysis demonstrates that this holistic approach has now been abandoned in favor of a more conventional one, and that the technical formulas and theoretical concepts of the NSI exhibit various inconsistencies and problems. In particular, one can recognize the absolute need for a unified standard for handling variables in the construction of composite indexes in general.
- Topic:
- Security, Emerging Markets, Human Welfare, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
10617. The Resource Curse and Rentier States in the Caspian Region: A Need for Context Analysis
- Author:
- Hannes Meissner
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Although much attention is paid to the Caspian region with regard to energy issues, the domestic consequences of the region's resource production have so far constituted a neglected field of research. A systematic survey of the latest research trends in the economic and political causalities of the resource curse and of rentier states reveals that there is a need for context analysis. In reference to this, the paper traces any shortcomings and promising approaches in the existent body of literature on the Caspian region. Following on from this, the paper then proposes a new approach; specifically, one in which any differences and similarities in the context conditions are captured. This enables a more precise exploration of the exact ways in which they form contemporary post-Soviet Caspian rentier states.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Development, Political Theory, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Caspian Sea
10618. From Rivalry to Mutual Trust: The Othering Process between Bolivia and Chile
- Author:
- Leslie Wehner
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Bolivia and Chile live in a culture of rivalry as a consequence of the Nitrate War (1879 ‐ 1883). In each country's case, the construction of the other as a threat, a rival and/or inferior has shaped the discursive articulation of the bilateral relationship. Whereas the culture of rivalry is more evident in Bolivia because of its aspiration to alter the border, Chile's status ‐ quo position, which stresses that there are no pending issues with Bolivia, as well as its construction of itself as superior, also represents rivalrous behavior. The perception of Chile as a threat and rival became especially evident in Bolivia during these two countries' bilateral negotiations to export gas to and through Chile (gas crisis from 2001 ‐ 05). However, since Evo Morales and Michelle Bachelet took office in Bolivia (2006 ‐ present) and in Chile (2006 ‐ 10), respectively, they have sought to change this culture of rivalry to one of friendship by constructing discursive articulations of self and other based on the principle of building mutual trust. Such a change in the form of othering is only possible to understand within the context of a crisis of meanings. The new approach of othering the counterpart as a friend has filled the void of meaning left by the crisis of discursive articulations of othering the counterpart as a rival, a threat and/or inferior.
- Topic:
- Political Theory and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- South America, Chile, and Bolivia
10619. Necessary fictions: Indigenous claims and the humanity of rights
- Author:
- Peter Fitzpatrick
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
- Abstract:
- To begin, not propitiously. When checking whether my title 'Necessary Fictions' was being used elsewhere, Google revealed that it was going to be used in a future talk, and by me. It transpired mercifuly that this use was going to be quite different to the present which suggested the prospect of a new academic genre: same title, different paper; rather than the standard combination of same paper, different title. Fortuitously, that contrast gave me the leitmotiv for this talk – that things ostensibly the same can be different, and that things ostensibly different can be the same.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, Political Theory, and Minorities
- Political Geography:
- United Arab Emirates
10620. What now for the 'peripheral' Eurozone countries?
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Over the weekend the EU put together a large-scale package worth up to €720 billion aimed at stabilising all the 'peripheral' Eurozone countries, in the face of mounting contagion risks. This came on top of an earlier financial support package for Greece worth €110 billion. The latest move has brought some relief to bond markets, but major challenges remain. Investors remain concerned about the capacity of Greece to stick to the immense fiscal adjustment needed in the face of a very deep recess ion and mounting social unrest. With the debt/GDP ratio set to keep rising to almost 150% in the next few years, concerns remain that some kind of debt restructuring or default cannot be avoided. For the other peripherals, too, the outlook remains bleak – while the immediate threat of a collapse in their debt markets has been averted, years of fiscal austerity and slow growth remain ahead.
- Topic:
- Debt, International Political Economy, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Greece
10621. Building a Global Presence: Institutional Challenges in Strengthening Mexico's Role in International Cooperation
- Author:
- Luz María de la Mora Sánchez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- During the 1990s, Mexico took divergent paths in developing its role as an international presence. In the area of economic integration and market liberalization, Mexico became a pioneer of institutional development among emerging markets and an example to the developing world. At the same time, Mexico failed to institutionalize its international cooperation agenda.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Cooperation, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Mexico
10622. The United States and Mexico: More Than Neighbors
- Author:
- Andrew Selee, Katie Putnam, and Christopher Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- No country in the world affects daily life in the United States more than Mexico. The two countries are deeply intertwined, and what happens on one side of the border necessarily has consequences on the other side. Almost one in ten Americans is of Mexican descent, and a third of all immigrants in the United States today are from Mexico, while well over a half-million Americans live in Mexico. Mexico remains the second destination for U.S. exports after Canada, and millions of American jobs depend on this trade. From south to north the linkages are even greater: over three quarters of Mexico's exports go to the United States and one in ten Mexicans lives in the United States.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Politics, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Immigration, and Law Enforcement
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, Central America, and Mexico
10623. The Mediterranean Energy Scene: What Now? What Next?
- Author:
- Silvia Colombo and Ian Lesser
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The paper provides a summary of the key issues raised in the third meeting of the Mediterranean Strategy Group which was convened in Rome to discuss the problem of energy security and cooperation in the Mediterranean from a transatlantic perspective. The meeting looked into the impact of geopolitical and economic variables on energy security around the Mediterranean, including the role and interests of “new” actors such as China, Russia and India. It also examined the outlook for new oil, gas, nuclear and electric power transmission projects, the prospects for alternative energy schemes, and the implications for strategy and policy affecting governments and the private sectors.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and India
10624. Combining Realism with Vision Options for NATO's new Strategic Concept
- Author:
- Riccardo Alcaro
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Elaborating a Strategic Concept is a delicate undertaking which implies a good deal of resolve, far - sightedness, and realism. Allies should neither search for a new North Star nor give in to the temptation of de facto acceptance of the status quo as the optimal solution. Instead, they should make choices reflecting a synthesis, not just a list, of their security priorities. In particular, they should consider the future of the allied deterrence and defence strategies in a security environment characterised by significant political and technological changes, including by thinking about steps towards withdrawing US nuclear weapons in Europe and creating an integrated missile defence system; learn the lessons from the Balkans and Afghanistan and accord greater priority to stabilisation than to rapid reaction capabilities; recognise that compromises will be inevitable if they are serious about considering Russia as a partner, and start by pausing for a while with enlargement. Allies should also make it clear that they have no ambition of turning NATO into a world gendarme and shift towards cooperative crisis management.
- Topic:
- NATO, Treaties and Agreements, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, United States, and Europe
10625. The Turkish-Armenian Rapprochement at the Deadlock
- Author:
- Nona Mikhelidze
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In October 2009, after intense diplomatic talks and the active involvement of key external actors, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and his Armenian counterpart Edward Nalbandian signed two protocols aimed at restoring bilateral relations. The agreements have however remained unratified due to political obstacles closely linked to historic disputes and the geopolitical constellation in the South Caucasus. As a result, even if rapprochement between Ankara and Yerevan has the potential of producing far-reaching changes in the regional political equilibrium, the status quo remains the most likely scenario.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, Armenia, and South Caucasus
10626. Africa's Irregular Security Threats: Challenges for U.S. Engagement
- Author:
- Andre Le Sage
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The United States has a growing strategic interest in Africa at a time when the security landscape there is dominated by a wide range of irregular, nonstate threats. Militia factions and armed gangs are ubiquitous in the continent's civil wars, fighting both for and against African governments. Other security challenges include terrorism, drug trafficking, maritime threats such as piracy in the Indian Ocean, and oil bunkering in the Gulf of Guinea. Organized criminal activities, particularly kidnapping, human smuggling and trafficking in persons, weapons smuggling, and environmental and financial crimes, are increasingly brazen and destructive. These are not isolated phenomena. Rather, they create a vicious circle: Africa's irregular threat dynamics sustain black markets directly linked to state corruption, divert attention from democratization efforts, generate or fuel civil wars, drive state collapse, and create safe havens that allow terrorists and more criminals to operate
- Topic:
- Political Violence, International Cooperation, Poverty, International Security, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and India
10627. Nuclear Politics in Iran
- Author:
- Judith S. Yaphe
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- This collection of analyses on the unintended consequences of Iran's nuclear policy for its domestic and international relations is the first in a series of papers that will examine the impact of critical issues and developments on key countries in the Greater Middle East and on U.S. security interests. Succeeding papers will identify similar emerging issues in Turkey, Iraq, Yemen, and the Persian Gulf region. For the most part, the papers will represent the independent research and opinions of academic scholars and regional experts prepared for and presented at the National Defense University.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, and Yemen
10628. Exit During Crisis: How Openness, Migration, and Economic Crisis Affect Democratization
- Author:
- Joseph Wright
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Does economic crisis lead to authoritarian regime breakdown and democratization? In this paper, I argue that the availability of exit options for citizens conditions the relationship between economic crisis and democratization. Where citizens have more viable exit alternatives, economic crisis causes citizens to exit rather than protest, making democratization less likely. I measure exit options in three ways: a geographic instrument for bilateral trade; neighboring country GDP per capita; and past net migration. I use time series, cross - section data on up to 122 authoritarian regimes in 114 countries from 1946 – 2002 to test this argument and find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that more attractive exit options insulate dictators from the liberalizing effects of economic crisis.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, Government, Political Theory, Financial Crisis, and Authoritarianism
10629. Giving developing countries the best shot: An overview of vaccine access and R
- Author:
- Paul Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Vaccines have made possible some of the greatest public health successes of the past century. Immunisation helps avert an estimated 2.5 million child deaths each year, as well as millions more bouts of illness and disability. Poor countries as well as rich have benefited, although developing countries almost always benefit only after long delays. Basic childhood immunisation is one of the few health interventions to which most of the world's poor have access, free of charge and through the public sector. In fact, immunisation is one of the most equitable health interventions, protecting girls and boys alike, and reaching the poor within countries at higher rates relative to the wealthy than other services.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Health, International Political Economy, Third World, and Health Care Policy
10630. Climate change adaptation: Enabling people living in poverty to adapt
- Author:
- Catherine Pettengell
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Climate change is fast pushing communities, particularly the most poor and marginalized, beyond their capacity to respond. Across the world, staple subsistence crops are approaching their outer viable temperature ranges; erratic rainfall patterns and changing seasons are upsetting agricultural cycles and leaving many struggling to feed their families; and rising sea levels are causing the inundation of crops and the contamination of water supplies with salt water.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Poverty, and Third World
10631. The rain doesn't come on time anymore: Poverty, vulnerability, and climate variability in Ethiopia
- Author:
- Senait Regassa, Christina Givey, and Gina E. Castillo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Climate variability in Ethiopia is not new—its diverse agro-ecological zones have brought a dazzling variety of micro-climates, and corresponding weather patterns, and people have developed ways to respond successfully to these challenges. But now, in addition to the usual struggles, Ethiopians living in poverty are additionally suffering the effects of climate change—both more variable climate and more extreme weather events. Women, men, families, and whole communities are struggling with how to understand this new variability, identify new patterns, and establish what resources they need to be able to move beyond reacting and coping to adapting to the new realities and being resilient. Policy makers, likewise, face the daunting challenge of how to refine policies, especially investments in and related to agriculture, to focus on poverty and vulnerability reduction in context of the new realities of climate change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
10632. Rhetoric and Reality: The Failure to Resolve the Darfur Conflict
- Author:
- Julie Flint
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Seven years after large-scale militia attacks signalled a change in the long- running but generally low-level conflict in Darfur, an unprecedented array of international instruments has been deployed, often chaotically, to address the conflict, including peacekeepers, peacemakers, special envoys, mediators, sanctions, embargoes, and criminal prosecution. Yet peace remains as elusive as ever. In the three and a half years since the Darfur Peace Agreement was precipitously concluded in Abuja and, rejected by most Darfurians, left to wither, the paradigm of government–rebel talks has persisted, despite stalemate. Time is not on Darfur's side: the longer the conflict continues, the more actors become involved and the harder it is to resolve. With national elections scheduled for April 2010 and a referendum on self-determination for Southern Sudan in 2011, the focus has moved away from Darfur. This Working Paper examines mediation efforts since Abuja and suggests why they have failed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Treaties and Agreements, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
10633. Uncertain Future: Armed Violence in Southern Sudan
- Author:
- Emile LeBrun and Claire McEvoy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- For the four-year-old Government of Southern Sudan, 2009 was a punishing year. It struggled to manage multiple financial, governance, and security crises while fighting for implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. Looming large were CPA-mandated legislative and executive elections scheduled for April 2010 and a referendum on Southern self-determination in January 2011. For much of the year, tensions between the ruling National Congress Party and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army were high, with mutual recriminations over stalled aspects of the peace process. Over the same period Southern Sudan experienced a wave of intense armed violence that swept through rural areas. The violence was well organized, involved multiple tribal groups, and exhibited a brutality not reported in recent years. By the end of the year, some 2,500 Southerners had been killed and 350,000 displaced, with no real progress made to address the conflicts. This Working Paper focuses on the violence of 2009, including its root causes and connections to political and power rivalries at the local and national levels. It highlights current and probable future sources of insecurity as the country moves to national elections and the referendum on Southern determination and beyond.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Armed Struggle, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Sudan
10634. Sufism in Northern Nigeria: Force for Counter-Radicalization?
- Author:
- Jonathan N. C. Hill
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- In light of the ongoing threats issued by Al Qaeda against the United States and its allies, the need to prevent the radicalization of young Muslim men and women remains as pressing as ever. Perhaps nowhere is this task more urgent than in the countries of West Africa. The global expanse of the ongoing war on terror places these territories in the frontline. With large Muslim populations that have hitherto remained mostly impervious to the advances of Islamism, the challenge now confronting the Nigerian government and the international community is ensuring that this remains the case. But in recent years, Islamist groups have been highly active in the region. The aim of this monograph is to assess the potential of Nigeria's Sufi Brotherhoods to act, both individually and collectively, as a force for counter-radicalization, to prevent young people from joining Islamist groups.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- United States, West Africa, and Nigeria
10635. Good Governance Lessons for Primary Education
- Author:
- Laetitia Antonowicz, Frédéric Lesné, Stéphane Stassen, and John Wood
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Transparency International
- Abstract:
- This report presents a regional overview of accountability and transparency in primary education management in seven African countries. It has been produced within the framework of Africa Education Watch (AEW). AEW is a three-year programme (2007-2010) implemented by Transparency International (TI) that focuses on governance in the management of public funds in the primary education system.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Education, Third World, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa
10636. Corporate Responsibility Anti-Corruption: the Missing Link?
- Author:
- Susan Côté-Freeman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Transparency International
- Abstract:
- While corporate responsibility initiatives have multiplied dramatically over the past 20 years there still is no universal understanding or unified approach when it comes to their concept or practice. At their worst, corporate responsibility programmes may be mere window-dressing exercises. At their best, these initiatives represent genuine attempts by companies working with stakeholders to address the great environmental, social and ethical challenges of our times.
- Topic:
- Corruption, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, and Governance
10637. Preventing Corruption in Humanitarian Operations: Handbook of Good Practices
- Author:
- Roslyn Hees, Marie-Luise Ahlendorf, and Stephanie Debere
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Transparency International
- Abstract:
- The idea for this handbook came from the massive humanitarian response to the Asian tsunami, when the huge levels of resources committed by the international community created concern about new opportunities for corruption. Many international development agencies have put in place corruption prevention polices tailored to development programmes, but there was a noticeable gap in policies for preventing corruption in emergencies. Based on extensive research within and beyond the humanitarian sector, as well as detailed input from the humanitarian community itself, this handbook aims to fill that gap. It offers a menu of good practice tools for preventing and detecting corruption in humanitarian operations.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Humanitarian Aid, Non-Governmental Organization, International Affairs, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Asia
10638. Health Expenditures in Pakistan: Cross-Checking Household Expenditure Data on Health for NHA and Adjustment with National Accounts
- Author:
- Christian Lorenz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- According to hitherto available data, health expenditures in Pakistan are relatively low in international comparison. Data2 published by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the year 2005 shows a lack of Pakistani health expenditures in most indicators, compared to other low-income countries (LIC). To answer the question whether these results reflect the real situation in Pakistan or whether they exist due to statistical problems, Pakistan, for the first time, developed its National Health Accounts (NHA) in 2009. Only the availability of good estimates of health expenditures allows for evidence-based policymaking and therefore for good governance.
- Topic:
- World Health Organization
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan
10639. The Digital Transformation of Services: From Economic Sinkhole to Productivity Driver
- Author:
- John Zysman, Kenji Kushida, Niels Christian Nielsen, Stuart Feldman, and Jonathan Murray
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- A fundamental transformation of services is underway, driven by developments in information and communications technology (ICT) tools, the uses to which they are being put, and the networks on which they run. Services were once considered a sinkhole of the economy, immune to significant technological or organizational productivity increases. Now, they are widely recognized as a source of productivity growth and dynamism in the economy that is changing the structure of employment, the division of labor, and the character of work and its location. Yet, the actual character of this transformation is often obscured by the increase in jobs labeled as services and by a focus on the digital technologies that, certainly, are facilitating this transformation. This transformation, central to the growth of productivity and competition in the economy, poses basic policy and business choices.
10640. Biofuels Development Strategy: A Case Study of the Dominican Republic
- Author:
- Brendan Luecke
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The Dominican Republic is well positioned to benefit from the development of an ethanol industry. It has adequate land resources and, under favorable market conditions, can produce ethanol cost-competitively for both domestic consumption and export.
- Topic:
- Biofuels
- Political Geography:
- Dominican Republic
10641. The Dissolution of Sectors: Do Politics and Sectors Still Go Together?
- Author:
- Mark Huberty
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- Technological change has altered firm behavior in ways that are rendering sectoral models of political economy inadequate for understanding the economic and political consequences of modern market evolution. I use cases from the computer and medical devices industries to demonstrate this process, its key variables, and consequences for firm preferences. Firms in both industries have moved into new sectors with integrated goods-services product strategies. In doing so, they have disrupted, or put into dispute, the political configurations that characterized those sectors in the past. I conclude with three suggestions on why the disintegration of sectors remains uneven across industries: that it may depend on the degree of information dependence in the industry; on the availability of suitable regulatory templates to guide firm action; or on the prior-existing role of services in the firm's home sector business.
- Topic:
- Markets
10642. Strict Liability for Medical Injuries? The Impact of Increasing Malpractice Liability on Obstetrician Behavior: Evidence from Taiwan
- Author:
- Brian Chen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Policy makers and academics have long debated the existence and extent of defensive medicine in the face of medical malpractice liability pressure. In this paper, I investigate how physicians' test-ordering behavior and propensity to perform cesarean sections were affected first by a series of court rulings in Taiwan that increased physicians' liability risks, and then by a subsequent amendment to the law that reversed the courts' rulings. I find that physicians faced with higher malpractice pressure increased laboratory tests as expected but unexpectedly reduced cesarean sections. The reduction in cesarean deliveries may be due to the fact that liability risks were more closely aligned with physicians' standard of care after the court rulings. After the law was amended to negate the court decisions, physicians reversed their previous behavior, reducing laboratory tests and increasing cesarean deliveries. This pattern of behavior strongly suggests that physicians in Taiwan practice defensive medicine.
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan
10643. A Guidebook on Bilateral Agreements to Address Health Worker Migration
- Author:
- Robert Kapp, Iradat Dhillon, and Margaret Clark
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- There is limited international structure to manage the ever important phenomenon of human migration and its associated challenges. This is particularly true with respect to the international migration of health workers, where bilateral agreements between sending and receiving nations have been repeatedly and urgently called for in the context of a global health workforce crisis. There remains, however, significant lack of clarity on the precise role, form, and content bilateral agreements should take to serve a health-related purpose. This Guidebook, including presentation of two model bilateral agreements, aims to provide guidance to further international cooperation around the critical and highly sensitive area of health worker migration.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Health, Migration, and World Health Organization
10644. Of the Press: Models for Transforming American Journalism
- Author:
- Michael Fancher
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- The idea of convening a forum to seriously examine the need to save American journalism would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. But in August 2009, the conversation seemed timely and urgent.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- America
10645. A Pillar's Progress: How Development's History Shapes U.S. Options in the Present
- Author:
- David Ekbladh
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Development is back. U.S. President Barack Obama has put it high on his strategic agenda. It is at the center of the State Department's much ballyhooed “Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review.” These aspirations come with real backing—Obama's fiscal year 2010 budget promises to double foreign aid to nearly $50 billion. Perhaps more importantly for supporters of development, across official Washington accord is growing that development must play a greater role not just in conflict zones but in general U.S. global strategy. It is not only the typical aid constituencies calling for greater attention. Even Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has urged a continuation of the emphasis on development that characterized policies of his last boss, former President George W. Bush. Almost assuredly, a pattern of bigger budgets, needed policy focus, and reform to the disjointed aid mechanisms within the U.S. government will emerge. Complementing (although not always supporting) this U.S. activity internationally is a collection of groups ranging from nongovernmental organizations (NGO)s to the United Nations (UN) and the World Bank. Overall, the place of aid U.S. foreign policy has not been so prominent or secure since the end of the Cold War. Development is once again, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton characterizes it, “a core pillar of American power.”
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Non-Governmental Organization, United Nations, Foreign Aid, and World Bank
- Political Geography:
- United States and Washington
10646. The State in A Double Bind: Staying Wealthy in a Changing Global Economy
- Author:
- John Zysman and Dan Breznitz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- Can Wealthy Nations Stay Rich In A Rapidly Changing Global Economy? This was the question with which we began our inquiry several years ago. The policy objective for governments is classic and enduring: sustain the growth of employment and productivity to assure expanding real incomes of the citizens. Success requires that—under free and fair market conditions, the community (firms and populace) can produce goods and services that meet the test of international markets while simultaneously expanding the real income of its citizens. I But the strategies required to achieve the goals and the debates about those strategies have evolved in two different directions, seemingly proposing alternate and contradictory priorities on governments.
- Topic:
- Government and Markets
10647. Cutting Through the Fog: Understanding the Competitive Dynamics in Cloud Computing
- Author:
- John Zysman, Dan Breznitz, and Kenji E. Kushida
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- Cloud Computing is growing rapidly, and it is likely to become part of the dominant computing infrastructure for individuals, start-up firms, small-medium businesses, and large enterprises. However, as it is still an emerging set of technologies and business models, discussions of Cloud Computing have not reached the level of clarity or shared conceptions of more mature areas of computing. The purpose of this document is threefold.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Science and Technology
10648. Fordism Light: Hyundai's Challenge to Coordinated Capitalism
- Author:
- Gregory W. Noble
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- Despite receiving a strikingly pessimistic evaluation in the acclaimed volume The Machine that Changed the World (Womack et al., 1990), the Hyundai-Kia group has overcome numerous crises to become the fourth largest auto producer in the world.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Markets
- Political Geography:
- South Korea
10649. Could Al-Qaeda Turn African in the Sahel?
- Author:
- Jean-Pierre Filiu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Since its founding in January 2007, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has continued the jihadi fi ght begun by its predecessor, the Salafi st Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), against the Algerian government. Algeria's ability to contain the jihadis has forced AQIM to develop networks in the Sahara and to cooperate with smuggling rings there. Its mobile commandos, already active in Mauritania, now represent a serious security threat in northern parts of Mali and Niger, where they have abducted Westerners and frequently clashed with government forces.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Algeria, and Mali
10650. A Two-State Solution Requires Palestinian Politics
- Author:
- Michele Dunne
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Successful Israeli–Palestinian negotiations, whether the indirect talks begun in May 2010 or direct talks, will require a Palestinian leadership that enjoys adequate support in the West Bank and Gaza. Building the institutions of a Palestinian state is also crucial and long overdue. Prime Minister Salam Fayyad's two-year plan for institution building, announced in August 2009, is laudable but has significant limitations. That plan, and Palestinian decision making, suffer from a common problem: the suspension of normal political life since the 2007 rift with Hamas and Gaza coup. Without a presidential election, legitimacy is draining away from President Mahmoud Abbas; without a functioning Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) and its ability to make laws, institution building is severely limited.
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Palestine