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11101. Sovereign Bankruptcy in the European Union in the Comparative Perspective

Author:
Leszek Balcerowicz
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper distinguishes four alternative sovereign debt resolution mechanisms: pure market solutions, modified market solutions, crisis lending by the IMF and other institutions, and the proposed Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (SDRM). It is hard to find—at the general level of analysis—the unique advantages of SDRM. The assessment of the European Stabilization Mechanism will ultimately depend on its operation, especially whether it will be a tool of subsidizing countries in debt distress or an instrument of fiscal crisis lending. The present fiscal problems in the eurozone are due to the erosion of fiscal discipline and not to the lack of strong compensatory transfers within the eurozone. The right model to look at the conditions for the stability of the eurozone is not a single state but the gold standard–type system, a system of sovereign states with a (de facto) single currency. Based on this analogy and considering modern developments, three types of measures are needed to safeguard the stability of the eurozone: (1) measures that would reduce the procyclicality of the macroeconomic policies and of the economy; (2) reforms that would help the eurozone economies grow out of increased public debt; and (3) steps to increase the flexibility of the economy so that it can deal with the future shocks in a better way.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

11102. Trade Disputes Between China and the United States: Growing Pains so Far, Worse Ahead?

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jared C. Woollacott
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This study covers the history of Sino-US trade relations with a particular focus on the past decade, during which time each has been a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Providing a brief history of 19th and 20th century economic relations, this paper examines in detail the trade disputes that have arisen between China and the United States over the past decade, giving dollar estimates for the trade flows at issue. Each country has partaken in their share of protectionist measures, however, US measures have been characteristically defensive, protecting declining industries, while Chinese measures have been characteristically offensive, promoting nascent industries. We also cover administrative and legislation actions within each country that have yet to be the subject of formal complaint at the WTO. This includes an original and comprehensive quantitative summary of US Section 337 intellectual property rights cases. While we view the frictions in Sino-US trade a logical consequence of the rapid increase in flows between the two countries, we caution that each country work within the WTO framework and respect any adverse decisions it delivers so that a protracted protectionist conflict does not emerge. We see the current currency battle as one potential catalyst for such conflict if US and Chinese policymakers fail to manage it judiciously.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and China

11103. Chief of Mission Authority as a Model for National Security Integration

Author:
Edward Marks and Christopher J. Lamb
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The inability of the President of the United States to delegate executive authority for integrating the efforts of departments and agencies on priority missions is a major shortcoming in the way the national security system of the U.S. Government functions. Statutorily assigned missions combined with organizational cultures create “stovepipes” that militate against integrated operations. This obstacle to “unity of effort” has received great attention since 9/11 but continues to adversely affect government operations in an era of increasingly multidisciplinary challenges, from counterproliferation to counterinsurgency in Afghanistan. Presidents have tried various approaches to solving the problem: National Security Council committees, “lead agencies,” and “czars,” but none have proven effective.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

11104. Drug Production and Trafficking, Counterdrug Policies, and Security and Governance in Afghanistan

Author:
Jonathan P. Caulkins, Mark A.R Kleiman, and Jonathan D. Kulick
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Drug production and drug trafficking are effects as well as causes of political instability. They flourish under weak states and sustain that weakness by financing insurgency and warlordism and by intimidating or corrupting the officials of enforcement agencies and security forces. Afghanistan is a primary instance of this complex of social and political pathologies.
Topic:
Security, Government, War on Drugs, Counterinsurgency, Narcotics Trafficking, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

11105. Globalization and Scarcity: Multilateralism for a world with limits

Author:
Alex Evans
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Globalization has improved the living standards of hundreds of millions of people – but growing resource scarcity means it risks becoming a victim of its own success. Left unaddressed, scarcity of food, energy, water, land and other key 'natural assets' has the potential to trigger intensifying zero sum competition between states – in the process, increasing poverty, state fragility, economic instability, inflation, and strategic resource competition between major powers.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Globalization, Natural Resources, Water, and Food
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11106. Conjuring Spirits from the Vasty Deep: A User's Guide to Proposals for Strengthening UN Civilian Capacity in Peace Operations

Author:
Eric Morris
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
Although civilian specialists in peace operations have been in short supply, the same cannot be said of proposals to alleviate the problem. Governments, non - governmental organizations, think tanks, and even the United Nations itself have issued reports to address the civilian deficit in peace operations. Most of these papers acknowledge that there has been halting improvement over time, but express concern over a wide array of gaps and shortages in response capacity. Almost all agree that demand will continue to outrun supply. Almost all warn that failure to close the gaps and address the shortages will call into question the credibility and legitimacy not only of international peace operations but also of the fragile national and local institutions that these operations hope to build.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Peace Studies, United Nations, and Peacekeeping

11107. North Korea's Yongbyon Nuclear Complex

Author:
Siegfried S. Hecker
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
On November 12, during my most recent visit to the Yongbyon Nuclear Complex with Stanford University colleagues John W. Lewis and Robert Carlin, we were shown a 25 to 30 megawatt-electric (MWe) experimental light-water reactor (LWR) in the early stages of construction. It is North Korea's first attempt at LWR technology and we were told it is proceeding with strictly indigenous resources and talent. The target date for operation was said to be 2012, which appears much too optimistic.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

11108. Beyond the 'New Horizon': Proceedings from the UN Peacekeeping Future Challenges Seminar, Geneva, 23–24 June 2010

Author:
Cedric H. de Coning, Thierry Tardy, and Andreas Øien Stensland
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The past decade has seen a nine-fold increase in UN peacekeeping operations. With over 123,000 deployed personnel across 16 missions, and at a cost of approximately USD 8 billion per year, the scale of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping today is unprecedented. While prior reforms have enabled growth and helped to define the core strengths of operations, UN peacekeeping now finds itself, once again, at a crossroads: 'The scale and complexity of peacekeeping today are straining its personnel, administrative and support machinery.' The peacekeeping partnership is under stress – among contributors, the Security Council, and the UN Secretariat. Several current peacekeeping missions are deployed beyond their doctrinal and capacity comfort zones.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Peace Studies, Regional Cooperation, United Nations, International Affairs, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
United States

11109. Cooperating for Peace: The Challenges and Promises of Partnerships in Peace Operations

Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In the over two decades since UN peacekeepers won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1988, the mechanisms and means for providing peacekeeping “supply” where it is needed continue to bedevil policy makers and those on the ground tasked with the difficult job of international intervention. Today, the peacekeeping agenda is packed with concerns such as the protection of civilians, peacekeeping when there is no peace to keep, managing spoilers, balancing humanitarian, peacebuilding and development imperatives, and the realization that vulnerability to relapse into conflict means that peacekeepers may be required for years and indeed decades to come.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, United Nations, and Peacekeeping

11110. Safety and Security in the Biotechnological Age

Author:
Marc Finaud and Sunjay Chandiramani
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In many ways, the world is at the beginning of what some are already calling the “Biological Century.” Discoveries in the life sciences have the potential to reshape the worlds of health, food production, energy, and climate change, to produce new fuels, heat- and drought-resistant food crops, and to eradicate deadly diseases. But biotechnological discoveries also have a dark side – potential immense harm may be caused through accidental or intentional release of designer pathogens. The globe is also facing a myriad of natural biological threats. Fifteen million people die each year of deadly infectious diseases, with new ones emerging every year, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Avian Flu. In a world of 700 million international air passengers yearly, and almost all on flights shorter than the incubation period of infectious diseases, national health has become only as safe as global health.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United Nations

11111. Sanctions and Weapons of Mass Destruction in International Relations

Author:
Masahiko Asada, Bernard Sitt, Anthony Aust, Mikael Eriksson, Edward Ifft, and Ambassador Arend Meerburg
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
How best to prevent or respond without force to unacceptable political behaviour in international relations has long been a difficult problem, and especially as regards violations of agreements and norms related to international security.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Sanctions

11112. Morocco's Experience With Poverty Reduction: Lessons for the Arab World

Author:
Lahcen Achy
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Morocco has made remarkable progress reducing poverty over the last decade. Today, less than 9 percent of its population is considered poor, compared with 162 percent a decade ago—a notable achievement for a country of 32 million people that lacks significant natural resources. This trend deserves closer examination to understand the reasons for the drop in poverty and identify policy lessons for other countries both in and outside the region.
Topic:
Poverty and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

11113. The Role of Transportation in Driving Climate Disruption

Author:
Deborah Gordon
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Earth's rapidly warming temperatures over the past several decades cannot be explained by natural processes alone. The science is conclusive: both man-made and natural factors contribute to climate change. Human activities—fossil-fuel combustion in transportation and other sectors, urbanization, and deforestation—are increasing the amount of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere. These record levels of greenhouse gases are shifting the Earth's climate equilibrium.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Environment

11114. Russia's Oil Exports: Economic Rationale Versus Strategic Gains

Author:
Adnan Vatansever
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia, the world's largest oil producer, is vigorously promoting the development of new outlets for oil exports. While the recent launch of a long-awaited cross-border oil pipeline between Russia and China has received most of the publicity, it is a part of a much larger Russian initiative aimed at developing new oil export infrastructure in almost every possible direction: Asia, the Baltic Sea region, the Black Sea region, and the Arctic. This export strategy will have considerable policy and economic implications for Eastern and Central Europe and even the United States.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

11115. A Place in the Sun or Fifteen Minutes of Fame? Understanding Turkey's New Foreign Policy

Author:
Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Turkey's vote against additional UN Security Council sanctions on Iran this year was viewed by many observers as a sign that Turkey is drifting away from the West. In reality, Ankara's relationship with the United States and the EU is much more complicated. Turkey's ambitious foreign policy and growing influence present the West with an opportunity to demand that Turkey play a more constructive role in the international community.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, Central Asia, and Turkey

11116. Reinterpreting China's Success Through the New Economic Geography

Author:
Yukon Huang
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China has in recent years capitalized on its huge, diverse population and geographical expanse to transform itself into the world's most efficient assembler and exporter of a wide range of manufactured goods. In achieving this development, it has followed a strategy essentially based on the New Economic Geography, which explains how lower transportation costs and concentration of economic activities foster economies of scale and explosive urbanization.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
China

11117. In Search of an "Action Principle"

Author:
Patrick J. Glen
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
Abstract:
In his seminal work on the history of scientific development, Thomas Kuhn described the structure of that development as revolutionary in nature, occurring at that point in time “in which an older paradigm is replaced in whole or in part by an incompatible one.” The impetus for this paradigm shift is malfunction—“scientific revolutions are inaugurated by a growing sense … that an existing paradigm has ceased to function adequately in the exploration of an aspect of nature to which that paradigm itself had previously led the way…. [T]he sense of malfunction that can lead to crisis is prerequisite to revolution.” Kuhn himself analogized his conception of the theory and operation of scientific revolutions to political revolutions, drawing out parallels in genesis, form and function between the two. The notion of revolutionary change, or paradigm shifts, itself provides a useful framework to judge the evolution, current state, and potential future of international human rights and criminal law. Although the analogy must necessarily be incomplete, as is the analogy between scientific and political revolutions, it does go a long way in explaining how the current system of international justice has reached its present state, and what may need to occur before that system can develop further.
Topic:
Crime, Human Rights, Human Welfare, International Law, and Political Theory

11118. Teaching Notes: Rights and Rebuilding in El Salvador

Author:
Susan Waltz and Elaine K. Denny
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
Abstract:
We have prepared this two-part case study with two pedagogical purposes in mind: (1) To develop an understanding of the concept (and political meaning) of human rights. (2) To facilitate discussion about processes of reconciliation and reconstruction and the importance of holistic conceptions of rights and security for future stability. Instructor notes are organized around these two themes. For each theme, we have provided some background commentary and discussion questions that can accompany both parts of the case study.
Topic:
Civil War, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and War
Political Geography:
Latin America

11119. Tunisia–The Imprisonment of Fahem Boukadous (Part One of a series)

Author:
Rob Prince
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
Abstract:
To most Americans with the exception of those few who, for whatever reason, have an attachment to the North African country of Tunisia, the name Fahem Boukadous, foreign to American ears, means nothing. It means a good deal more to "Reporters Without Borders” and to the US State Department that actually issued a statement (half way down the page) on his behalf, to the US intelligence agencies and military that have carefully followed the Spring, 2008 uprising in the Tunisian region of Gafsa–deemed the most extensive and militant social protest in that country's history in the past quarter century.
Topic:
Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Torture
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, America, Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

11120. Human Rights Education in Peace-building: A Look at Where the Practice Has Come from, and Where It Needs to Head

Author:
Tracey Holland
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
Abstract:
The world's peace-building and development organizations increasingly are incorporating human-rights frameworks into the myriad of activities now under their purview. Slower to develop, however, are the capacity-building programs designed to impart knowledge about human rights to citizens and communities. Field-workers throughout the world indicate that the lack of such guidance-giving education hinders them when it comes to monitoring activities, helping to rebuild public institutions, setting up and organizing electoral politics, building an unfettered media, protecting human security, setting up transitional justice mechanisms, and the myriad of other peace-building activities and democratization challenges they face in post-conflict situations. This paper not only explores this emerging field of the study and practice of human-rights education within the cross-national peace-building sphere by sharing the perspectives of educators around the world, but also considers a host of ideas that should help to advance the human-rights agendas of present and future post-conflict planners.
Topic:
Security, Development, Human Rights, Human Welfare, International Law, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping

11121. Chicago's Preparedness for Terrorism

Author:
Clark Kent Ervin
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
This is the third in a series of reports about various cities' preparedness for terrorism and/or natural disasters. It is the outgrowth of a series of discussions in 2007-2008 in New York, Los Angeles, Houston, New Orleans, and Chicago among key federal, state, and local government officials in each such city, as well as private sector stakeholders, and think tank/academic experts on homeland security and counterterrorism. The series was underwritten by a generous lead grant from the Ford Foundation, supplemented by additional grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, the McCormick Foundation, and the Houston Endowment. The goal in each city was to identify best practices that can be replicated around the country; to identify any gaps in preparedness; and to recommend to policymakers ways and means of closing any such gaps.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, New York, and Chicago

11122. Houston's Preparedness for Terrorism

Author:
Clark Kent Ervin
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
This is the fourth in a series of reports, underwritten principally by the Ford Foundation, and, in this particular case, additionally, the Houston Endowment, as to various cities' (namely, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, New Orleans, and Houston) preparedness for terrorism and catastrophic natural disasters. Our goal in each city was to identify best practices that can be replicated in other cities around the nation; to identify any gaps in preparedness; and to make recommendations to close any such gaps. We conducted these assessments primarily through roundtable discussions in each city in 2007-2009 with key local, state, and federal government officials, corporate and non-profit stakeholders, and academic and think tank experts, with some supplemental research and follow-up interviews. The audience for each roundtable consisted of representatives of funding organizations, congressional staff, policy experts, and students, all of whom were helpful in engaging the speakers in dialogue following their formal presentations.
Topic:
Security, Government, Terrorism, Natural Disasters, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, New York, and Chicago

11123. Reforming Medical Malpractice Liability through Contract

Author:
Michael F. Cannon
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This paper discusses the medical malpractice "crisis" and the potential of contract liability to reduce overall malpractice costs as well as improve the quality of and access to care. First, the paper describes the current medical malpractice liability "system" and some of the more common reforms offered. It then discusses the economic rationale of allowing patients and providers to agree in advance of treatment on how the patient will be compensated in the event of simple negligence on the part of providers, explaining how contract liability may offer improvements in the areas of costs, patient preferences, the pursuit of more efficient liability rules, and quality of care. The paper then critiques select objections to contract liability – those based on the superior bargaining power of providers, the lack of information available to patients, and possible reductions in quality – and forwards possible limitations on the right to contract that may allay such concerns.
Topic:
Health, Law, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
United States

11124. Has the Fed Been a Failure?

Author:
George A. Selgin, Lawrence H. White, and William D. Lastrapes
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
As the one-hundredth anniversary of the 1913 Federal Reserve Act approaches, we assess whether the nation's experiment with the Federal Reserve has been a success or a failure. Drawing on a wide range of recent empirical research, we find the following: (1) The Fed's full history (1914 to present) has been characterized by more rather than fewer symptoms of monetary and macroeconomic instability than the decades leading to the Fed's establishment. (2) While the Fed's performance has undoubtedly improved since World War II, even its postwar performance has not clearly surpassed that of its undoubtedly flawed predecessor, the National Banking system, before World War I. (3) Some proposed alternative arrangements might plausibly do better than the Fed as presently constituted. We conclude that the need for a systematic exploration of alternatives to the established monetary system is as pressing today as it was a century ago.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

11125. Do Vouchers and Tax Credits Increase Private School Regulation?

Author:
Andrew J. Coulson
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
School voucher and education tax credit programs have proliferated in the United States over the past two decades. Advocates have argued that they will enable families to become active consumers in a free and competitive education marketplace, but some fear that these programs may in fact bring with them a heavy regulatory burden that could stifle market forces. Until now, there has been no systematic, empirical investigation of that concern. The present paper aims to shed light on the issue by quantifying the regulations imposed on private schools both within and outside school choice programs, and then analyzing them with descriptive statistics and regression analyses. The results are tested for robustness to alternative ways of quantifying private school regulation, and to alternative regression models, and the question of causality is addressed. The study concludes that vouchers, but not tax credits, impose a substantial and statistically significant additional regulatory burden on participating private schools.
Topic:
Education, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

11126. Approaches to Solving Territorial Conflicts: Sources, Situations, Scenarios, and Suggestions

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Territorial disputes are notoriously difficult to resolve peacefully and enduringly. The outcome of adjudication on border issues is unpredictable, and political leaders are often unwilling to accept the risks of losing territory. Arbitration or mediation (nonbinding arbitration) provide a more flexible and balanced way to reach a satisfactory outcome, but their finality also makes politicians nervous.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, War, and Territorial Disputes

11127. Guide to Electoral Dispute Resolution

Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Electoral rights are based on fundamental human rights, namely the civil and political freedoms of opinion, expression, association, and peaceful assembly that are solidly established on a global and regional basis under numerous international conventions. The right to enjoy free and fair elections also derives from the right to participate in governance, both directly and through representatives, which is also established through these instruments. Finally, the treaties also require protection of electoral as well as other human rights through an effective system of appeal.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Treaties and Agreements

11128. Final Report: Limited Assessment Mission to the March 2010 Villagers Committee Elections in Yunnan Province, China

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
One of the most important democratic experiments of the last 25 years has been the movement in more than 600,000 villages across China toward open, competitive elections, allowing 75 percent of the nation's 1.3 billion people to elect their local leaders. For over a decade, at the invitation of the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs and the National People's Congress, The Carter Center has worked to help standardize the vast array of electoral procedures taking place in this new democratic environment and foster better governance in local communities. Since 1996, The Carter Center has observed numerous village elections, provided training to local government officials on electoral procedures, and helped conduct a nation-wide survey on villager self-governance.
Topic:
Communism, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

11129. Final Report : Observation Mission of the Bolivia Voter Registration 2009

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The Dec. 6, 2009, presidential and legislative elections were the first elections held under the new constitution of the Plurinational State of Bolivia. The high rate of citizen participation in the voter registration process and the general elections confirmed that the Bolivian people have a strong commitment to democratic life and that elections are regarded as a legitimate means to settle differences. The Carter Center mission in Bolivia was targeted, focusing on long-term observation of the voter registration process. As such, the mission did not conduct a comprehensive assessment of the entire electoral process. The Carter Center opened a field office in La Paz that operated from Aug. 15 to Dec. 15. During this time, voter registration was assessed through direct observation, as well as technical and legal analysis. The mission also included a limited observation of the Dec. 6 general elections. The mission was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Principles for International Election Observation. This report covers the findings of The Carter Center mission.
Topic:
Democratization and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia

11130. State of Affairs: Three Years After Nisoor Square: Accountability and Oversight of U.S. Private Security and Other Contractors

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
On September 16, 2007, Black water Worldwide (now X e) private security contractors working for the U.S. Department of State killed 17 unarmed civilians and wounded 24 more in an unprovoked incident in Baghdad's Nisoor Square. A political firestorm immediately ensued in Iraq, the United States and around the world. The incident exposed what had been clear for several years: The United States lacked a coordinated, systematic policy for overseeing private contractors abroad and holding them accountable for serious violent crimes. Now, the United States' reliance on private security contractors in zones of armed conflict is increasing as is the urgent need for effective contractor oversight and accountability. Private contractors continue to outnumber U.S. military forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and both the surge in Afghanistan and the drawdown in Iraq require additional support from private security and other contractors. It is estimated that up to 50,000 contractors will be required to support the Afghan surge and, with the military drawdown in Iraq, the Department of State plans to more than double the number of private security contractors it employs from 2,700 to 7,000. As Iraq and eventually Afghanistan move from military to civilian control and private contractors replace military forces there, the so-called jurisdictional gap over non-Defense contractors widens. If we learned anything from Nisoor Square it is that oversight and accountability gaps must be filled prior to increasing our private contractor force in conflict zones.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Human Rights, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Arabia

11131. Russia, the United States, and Cyber Diplomacy: Opening the Doors

Author:
Greg Austin and Franz-Stefan Gady
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Russia and the United States have been unable to establish a common understanding in their bilateral diplomacy on most aspects of cyber security. In spite of a 1998 declaration of their interest in joint leadership of global responses to cyber security challenges, the two countries have acted more often than not like enemies guarding sensitive national security secrets rather than as allies committed to protecting common interests in the global digital economy and the socially networked world.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

11132. Rights and Responsibilities in Cyberspace: Balancing the Need for Security and Liberty

Author:
Jody R. Westby, Henning Wegener, and William Barletta
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Cyber war has become the drumbeat of the day. Nation-states are developing national strategies, creating offensive and defensive cyber war capabilities, conduct-ing cyber reconnaissance missions, and engaging in cyber attacks, all with alarming frequency. What is blatantly apparent is that far more financial resources and intel-lectual capital are being spent figuring out how to conduct cyber warfare than are being spent figuring out how to prevent it. The lack of international dialogue and activity with respect to the containment of cyber warfare is simply stunning. As Winston Churchill famously noted, “It is bet-ter to jaw-jaw than to war-war.” It is time for governments to begin discussions aimed at assuring an agreed-upon level of geo-cyber stability through mutual cooperation and international law.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and War
Political Geography:
Moscow and Brussels

11133. Policy Matters But How? Explaining Non-Compliance Dynamics in the EU

Author:
Tanja A. Börzel, Tobias Hofmann, and Diana Panke
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
The European Union's infringement procedure is highly legalized. Nevertheless, as in other international institutions, non-compliance occurs on a regular basis and its transformation into compliance varies across EU infringement stages and over time. State of the art compliance literature focuses mainly on country-specific explanations, such as power, capacity, and legitimacy. In particular power-capacity models explain a good part of whether non-compliance occurs and how quickly it can be resolved. Yet, these approaches leave substantial parts of the empirical variation that we observe unexplained. This paper argues that policy and, in particular, rule-specific variables – although often neglected – are important for explaining non-compliance. Based on a quantitative analysis, we show that policy matters not only for the frequency with which EU law is violated, but also the persistence of non-compliance over time and over the different stages of the infringement procedure.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Law
Political Geography:
Europe

11134. Public Forum and Workshop on Securing Food Futures in the Asia-Pacific: Evaluating Regional Frameworks for Food Security

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Between 2005 and 2008, global food prices increased 83 per cent. The price of wheat rose by 127 per cent, rice by 170 per cent and that of maize tripled. As a result the number of people suffering from chronic hunger reached a historic high of 1.02 billion in 2009, with the Asia- Pacific region accounting for 63 per cent of that total (642 million people). Although the situation improved in 2010 due to a more favourable economic environment and a fall in both international and domestic food prices, the future remains daunting. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), for example, forecast that the average wheat and coarse grain prices over the next 10 years will increase by between 15 and 40 per cent in real terms compared to average levels during 1997–2006. These events and projections demonstrate the global nature of the food problem, and underscore the importance of deeper regional cooperation.
Topic:
Security, Globalization, and Food
Political Geography:
United Nations

11135. On Multilateralism -Ideas and Actions of a World Banker-

Author:
Hideaki Asahi
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:
The genesis of this essay was a series of conversations over the Internet with a long-time friend who made a whirlwind trip to Japan at the end of 2009. At the time, I felt compelled to write by his suggestion that the concept of multilateralism might well be understood and become more prevalent among not only policy-makers, but also the general public, and that this would serve the interests of Japan in changing international circumstances. Subsequently, I was requested to draft an essay for contribution to a forthcoming annual bulletin of the graduate course I was about to leave at the conclusion of tenure. The bulletin struck me as an opportune medium for the dissemination of an essay on multilateralism. With this backdrop in mind, it should be understood that the essay was neither a piece of academic research nor a policy advocacy piece targeted at the ordinary readers of public opinion journals. It is rather an attempt to weave together vivid memories and piece together remembered fragments of conversations held over the past three decades, an undertaking I have long considered worthwhile. The contents of this essay intentionally steered clear of stories concerning my friendship with this person already reported by well-known journalists in Japan. Instead, the essay is intended to examine the core elements of what he stands for, known as multilateralism, which may be paraphrased as liberal internationalism in the literature of international relations. Accordingly, I hope the essay will serve as a personal memorandum. I also hope that it will help the readers envisage how multilateralism works and deepen their understanding of what it is all about by connecting the concept of multilateralism to concrete images and offering food for thought.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and Asia

11136. Al Qaeda's Religious Justification of Nuclear Terrorism

Author:
Rolf Mowatt-Larssen
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
When legendary jihadist Abdullah Azzam was assassinated under mysterious circumstances in November 1989, suspects in his murder included Osama bin Laden and Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ) leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. After the Soviets were expelled from Afghanistan, Azzam sought to shift jihad to his homeland, Palestine. Zawahiri sought to focus the jihad on Egypt and the other secular Muslim states, in hopes of restoring the caliphate, the rule of Islamic clerics, which had ended after the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire in 1924. After Islamic rule had been re-established in the Islamic world, Zawahiri wrote, “then history would make a new turn, God willing, in the opposite direction against the empire of the United States and the world's Jewish government.”
Topic:
Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Palestine, Egypt, and Assam

11137. Climate Change Adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Jeannie Sowers
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The impacts of human-induced climate change are often considered a future prospect, yet in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), indications of a changing climate are clearly evident. Most of the predicted outcomes associated with international climate models are already occurring in the region, compounding existing problems of water scarcity, water pollution, desertification, salinization, and sea-level rise. Since most of the MENA region is arid and hyperarid, small changes in water availability and arable land have significant consequences for human security. Thus, “if mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water” (Clausen and Berg 2010). Particularly through effects on the variability and quality of scarce and degraded water resources, human-induced climate change exacerbates already existing problems affecting urban and rural development, human health, and economic productivity in MENA.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

11138. Iranian Youth in Times of Economic Crisis

Author:
Djavad Salehi-Isfahani
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Young people in Iran have emerged as important players on the country's political scene but remain marginal on its economic scene. They were a vital part of President Khatami's political base and contributed to his landslide victories at the polls, in 1997 and 2001. In June 2009 they again played a key role, this time in challenging President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's controversial reelection, which led to massive anti-government protests in the nation's largest cities. A year later the political crisis appears to have subsided, but the economic crisis that has engulfed the country since early 2008 has deepened, and with it the crisis facing Iran's youth. Youth unemployment is at record high levels and, for the majority of youth, marriage and family formation are increasingly becoming challenges to overcome rather than celebrations of reaching adulthood.
Topic:
Islam, Labor Issues, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Asia

11139. Controlling Behavior – Not Arms: Moving Forward On An International Convention For Cyberspace

Author:
Ramtin Amin
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The rapidly increasing occurrence of cyber attacks and the growing use of the cyber domain for politically motivated purposes during both times of war and peace by both state and non-state actors has precipitated a dire need of an international convention to control behavior in cyberspace. While arms control conventions exist for the nuclear, chemical, and biological modes of warfare occurring at land, sea, space, and air, no such treaty is in place for the latest domain, whose tactical importance is now of vital importance for the global communication infrastructure and domestic military capabilities. In this paper, I will first extrapolate upon the current legal landscape pertinent to cyber arms and crime, and explore the limitations of current international laws that have been most often cited during past instances of cyber attacks. I will further explore a number of arms control drafts that have been proposed over the years, and highlight some of the lessons learned, with the aim of providing a constructive analysis to aid international lawmakers and affiliated institutions who are less familiar with the meta-physical cyber domain, and the unique challenges it presents. Finally, I will analyze the following five essential elements of a future global cyber convention: terms and definitions regarding cyber arms; peaceful use of cyber technology; signatory obligations regarding private actors; attribution; and mechanisms for deterrence. In exploring these fundamental themes, I will demonstrate why and how a future convention for cyberspace should focus on controlling behavior, rather than dwelling on a counterproductive goal of arms control.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

11140. Art and Ecstasy in Arab Music

Author:
A.J. Racy
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Throughout history, the emotional power of music has concerned philosophers, scientists, educators, moralists, and musicians. Growing up in a small rural village in southern Lebanon, I observed such power first hand. When the mijwiz (a double-pipe reed instrument) was played, traditionally using the technique of circular breathing, I saw the local listeners succumb to the instrument's magic spell. Its irresistible Dionysian ethos seemed to compel them to sing and dance. Some villagers maintained that the mijwiz enabled the shepherds, who often played it, to entrance their goats and make them stand still and listen. As an ethnomusicologist who specializes in music of the Middle East, especially of the Arab world, I have come across other similarly compelling cases of musical transformation. When singers chanted their poetry at medieval Abbasid courts in Baghdad, the listeners, including the caliphs themselves, displayed a variety of strong reactions, including moving their feet, dancing, sobbing, weeping, and tearing their garments—or in some cases listening to the performers attentively and bestowing upon them lavish compliments. Meanwhile, medieval Arabic treatises, which in the ancient Greek tradition often treated music as a science, left us ample writings about music's extraordinary cosmological associations and therapeutic effects. And for the Sufi mystics, music and dance became an integral path to transcendence, or the attainment of spiritual ecstasy.
Topic:
Islam, Arts, and Culture
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon

11141. Regional Workshop on Dealing with Energy Vulnerabilities

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Much literature on energy security in East Asia has focused on the dynamics of competition over resources, and how conflicts could arise from this. While this analytical perspective identifies potential risks and is conducive to the proposing of pre-emptive solutions to likely problems, it also risks precluding necessary attention to the possibilities for cooperation between states in the region. While the themes of competition and conflict will continue to be relevant in discussions on East Asian states and societies, it ought to be a useful exercise to review case studies of how countries in East Asia have managed to overcome their respective vulnerabilities and thus meet their energy needs. Such knowledge can in turn contribute to the exploration of cooperation-based solutions for addressing energy security in the region.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Israel and East Asia

11142. The Impact of Migration and Remittances on Wealth Accumulation and Distribution in Rural Thailand

Author:
Filiz Garip
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper studies the impact of internal migration and remittance flows on wealth accumulation and distribution in 22 rural villages in Nang Rong, Thailand. Using data from 943 households, the study constructs indices of household productive and consumer assets with principal components analysis. The changes in these indices from 1994 to 2000 are modeled as a function of households' prior migration and remittance behavior while correcting for potential selectivity bias with propensity score matching. The findings show that rich households face a decrease in productive assets due to migration of their members, while poor households with migrants gain productive assets and improve their relative status in their communities. These results suggest an equalizing effect of migration and remittance flows on wealth distribution in rural Thailand.
Topic:
Migration, Poverty, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Thailand and Southeast Asia

11143. Discovering Diverse Mechanisms of Migration: The Mexico-U.S. Stream from 1970 to 2000

Author:
Filiz Garip
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Migrants to the United States are a diverse population. This diversity, captured in various migration theories, is overlooked in empirical applications that describe a typical narrative for an average migrant. Using the Mexican Migration Project data from about 17,000 first-time migrants between 1970 and 2000, this study employs cluster analysis to identify four types of migrants with distinct configurations of characteristics. Each migrant type corresponds to a specific theoretical account, and becomes prevalent in a specific period, depending on the economic, social and political conditions. Strikingly, each migrant type also becomes prevalent around the period in which its corresponding theory is developed.
Topic:
Migration and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico

11144. The Role of Women in Global Security

Author:
Valerie Norville
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Building lasting peace and security requires women's participation. Half of the world's population cannot make a whole peace. Ten years after the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1325 on increasing women's participation in matters of global security, the numbers of women participating in peace settlements remain marginal. While improvements have been made, women remain underrepresented in public office, at the negotiating table, and in peacekeeping missions. The needs and perspectives of women are often overlooked in postconflict disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR), as well as in security sector reform, rehabilitation of justice, and the rule of law. Many conflicts have been marked by widespread sexual and gender-based violence, which often continues in the aftermath of war and is typically accompanied by impunity for the perpetrators. A continuing lack of physical security and the existence of significant legal constraints in postconflict societies hamper women's integration into economic life and leadership. Best practices for increasing women's participation include deployment of gender-balanced peacekeeping units, a whole-of-government approach to security sector and judicial reform, and more intentional solicitation of the input of women at the community level on priori - ties for national budgets and international programs.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Globalization, and United Nations

11145. Breaking the Cycle of Electoral Violence in Nigeria

Author:
Ebere Onwudiwe and Chloe Berwind-Dart
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Nigeria's 2011 polls will mark the fourth multiparty election in Nigeria and, if a power transfer occurs, only the second handover of civilian administrations since the country's return to democracy in 1999. Past election cycles have featured political assassinations, voter intimidation, intra-and interparty clashes, and communal unrest. Party primary season, the days immediately surrounding elections, and the announcement of results have been among the most violent periods in previous cycles. Although the most recent elections in 2007 derived some benefit from local conflict management capacity, they were roundly criticized for being neither free nor fair. The 2011 elections could mark a turning point in the consolidation of Nigeria's democracy, but they could also provoke worsening ethnosectarian clashes and contribute to the continuing scourge of zero-sum politics. President Umaru Yar'Adua, who died in May 2010, kept his 2007 inauguration promise to create an Electoral Reform Committee (ERC) but failed to adopt key recommendations that the committee made. His successor, President Goodluck Jonathan, appointed a widely respected professor, Attahiru Jega, to head the Independent National Electoral Commission, inspiring hope that electoral processes will improve in 2011. The issue of “zoning,” the political elite's power-sharing agreement, has taken center stage in the current election cycle and will drive significant conflict if the debate around it devolves into outright hostilities. his unusual election cycle, local and international organizations and Electoral Management Bodies (EMBs) must redouble their efforts both to prevent and resolve conflicts and to promote conflict sensitivity. The near term requires an increasingly important role for the judiciary in combating electoral fraud, and the longer term requires the creation of the ERC–recommended Electoral Offenses Commission, which would specialize in the investigation and prosecution of crimes. Local agencies and respected community leaders must remain proactive and creative in violence-prevention programming, irrespective of international funding. Established local organizations with preexisting networks are best situated to perform early-warning and conflict management functions. High voter turnout and citizen monitoring are vital for ensuring that the 2011 elections in Nigeria are credible and civil.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

11146. Countering Radicalization in America: Lessons from Europe

Author:
Lorenzo Vidino
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The recent surge in the number of American Muslims involved in terrorism has led U.S. authorities to question the long-held assumption that American Muslims are immune to radicalization, and to follow the example of other Western democracies in devising a comprehensive counter radicalization strategy. Radicalization is a highly individualized process determined by the complex interaction of various personal and structural factors. Because no one theory can exhaustively explain it, policymakers must understand the many paths to radicalization and adopt flexible approaches when trying to combat it. The role of religion in the radicalization process is debated, but theories that set aside ideology and religion as factors in the radicalization of Western jihadists are not convincing. Policymakers who choose to tackle religious aspects should do so cautiously, however, cognizant of the many implications of dealing with such a sensitive issue. Policymakers need to determine whether a counter radicalization strategy aims to tackle violent radicalism alone or, more ambitiously, cognitive radicalism. The relation between the two forms is contested. Challenging cognitive radicalism, though possibly useful for both security and social cohesion purposes, is extremely difficult for any Western democracy.Finding partners in the Muslim community is vital to any counter radicalization program. In light of the fragmentation of that community, a diverse array of partners appears to be the best solution. There is the risk, however, that counter radicalization efforts could be perceived by Muslims as unfairly targeting them. Partnerships with nonviolent Islamists could provide results in the short term, but there are doubts as to their long-term implications. All aspects of a partnership with such groups should be carefully examined before any decision is made. Policymakers need to find ways to empirically measure their programs' effectiveness.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States and America

11147. The Experience of Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Integrated Financial Management Information System Reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa: What is the Balance Sheet?

Author:
Mfandaedza Hove and Andy Wynne
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
A Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and an Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) are two of the standard reforms promoted and supported by the World Bank and other aid agencies in almost every country in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper provides a balance sheet of the relative success, or otherwise, of these reforms over the last decade. The aims and objectives of the MTEF and the IFMIS are outlined, indicating the initial hopes for these reforms and the increasingly strident warnings that this promise was not being delivered. The paper then argues that it was the economic problems across Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in the late 1970s and early 1980s, resulting from external events, which led to a worsening of the quality of financial management and governance. This contrasts with the dominant view that it is poor governance that is holding back economic development across the continent. This leads to considerations of effective alternative approaches; the need for real country led reforms which build on the particular existing public sector financial management system in each country; and puts a priority on basic internal financial controls and reforms which have been clearly proved to be successful in similar environments.
Topic:
Debt, Reform, Public Sector, and Financial Management
Political Geography:
Africa, Rwanda, and Sub-Saharan Africa

11148. Currency Reforms in Zimbabwe: an Analysis of Possible Currency Regimes

Author:
George Kararach, Phineas Kadenge, and Gibson Guvheya
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ) adopted a multiple currencies regime (MCR) in February 2009 and demonetized the Zimbabwean dollar in July 2009 after almost a decade of economic crisis. The MCR strategy resulted in stabilizing the Zimbabwean economy; however, there are remaining concerns that need to be addressed. The purpose of this paper is to explore various options of currency regimes that could be adopted in the short and medium term in order to consolidate Economic stabilization and recovery in Zimbabwe. The paper proposes that the optimal choice of a particular currency regime be based on a framework that takes into account the following: (a) the advantages and disadvantages of a particular regime, (b) the need for correct timing and sequencing of policy tools and reform actions, (c) the prior capacity conditions in the country, and (d) the political commitment to undertake the necessary reforms. It is imperative to note that these reforms are no quick fixes for designing economic stabilization and recovery programs needed in Zimbabwe. The Zimbabwean authorities and stakeholders need to fulfill the aforesaid preconditions for successful currency reform, before collectively selecting from among the various options.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Reform, Central Bank, Fiscal Policy, Currency, and Safety Net
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

11149. Lifestyles and Preferences for (Public) Goods: Professional Football Goods: Professional Football Professional Footballin Munich

Author:
Gabriel Ahlfeldt, Wolfgang Maennig, and Michaela Ölschläger
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
This paper investigates the 2001 referendum on the Allianz-Arena, a professional soccer stadium in Munich, Germany, with respect to lifestyle-specific voter preferences. Using political party affiliation and milieu probabilities as proxy variables, we find that lifestyle-specific preferences, values and attitudes more significantly contribute to the explanation of voting outcome compared to traditional strata-orientated indicators of economic wealth. Thus, lifestyle, preferences, tastes and attitudes are not proportionally related to income. Results are robust to stadium proximity effects and spatial dependency.
Topic:
Sports, Referendum, Stadiums, and Lifestyle
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Munich

11150. Sectoral Labour Market Effects of the 2006 FIFA World Cup

Author:
Arne Feddersen and Wolfgang Maennig
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
Using the case of the 2006 FIFA World Cup, this study is the first to test the employment effects of a mega-sporting event on the basis of data that are both regional and sectoral. It is also the first study of sporting events to use a non-parametric test method. Earlier studies on the World Cup could not identify any employment effects. In contrast, we find a small but significant positive employment effect on the hospitality sector and a negative effect on the construction sector. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such a crowding-out effect of public investment on the occasion of a mega-sporting event has been found in an empirical analysis.
Topic:
Economics, World Cup, Labor Market, and FIFA
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

11151. Mega-Events and Sectoral Employment: The Case of the 1996 Olympic Games

Author:
Arne Feddersen
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
This paper contributes to the analysis of large sporting events using highly disaggregated data. We use the 1996 Olympic Games in Atlanta, which are also outstanding as one of the very few large sporting events where ex post academic analysis found significant positive effects. This paper extends earlier studies in several ways. First, monthly rather than quarterly data will be employed. Second, the impact of the 1996 Olympics will be analyzed for 16 different sectors or subsectors. Third, in addition to standard DD models, we use a non-parametric approach to flexibly isolate employment effects. Regarding the Olympic effect, hardly any evidence for a persistent shift in the aftermath of or the preparation for the Olympic Games is supported. We find a significant positive employment effect in the monthly employment statistics exclusively during the staging of the Olympic Games (July 1996). These short-term effects are concentrated in the sectors of “retail trade”, “accommodation and food services”, and “arts, entertainment, and recreation”, while other sectors showed no such effects.
Topic:
Economics, Employment, Sports, Olympics, and Sectoral Data
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

11152. The 2010 World Cup High-Frequency Data Economics: Effects on International Awareness and (Self-Defeating) Tourism

Author:
Stan Du Plessis and Wolfgang Maennig
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
Without a doubt, the 2010 World Cup of soccer in South Africa was a great experience for both soccer fans, who enjoyed a safe and efficiently-run tournament, and their South African hosts. The sporting and social spectacle was broadcast around the world and focused unprecedented media attention on South Africa. Despite the manifest success of the tournament, its short-term effects on international tourism, which are the nucleus of all other short-term positive effects on economic variables such as employment, income and taxes, have turned out to be of a much smaller magnitude than expected or even as reported during the tournament. This may be attributable to self-defeating prophecy effects. This study is a warning against the abuse of economic impact studies, especially those pertaining to major sporting events. It is also a call to use the “correct” arguments of measurable awareness effects and potential long-term development effects in discussing major sporting events. Methodologically, this study is innovative in its economic analysis of major sporting events because it (i) uses data from social networks and (ii) uses high-frequency daily data on tourism.
Topic:
Economics, Tourism, Sports, World Cup, Facebook, Social Networks, FIFA, and Google
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Global Focus

11153. Do Men Slow Down Faster than Women?

Author:
Wolfgang Maennig and Michael Stobernack
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
This paper is the first test of differences between age-related reductions in the performance of men and women. The assumption that men age faster is obvious, because men's life expectancy is generally lower. In addition to other studies on age-related reduction in human performance, this paper examines the data taken from competitions on rowing machines, which have been standardized worldwide and which are hardly affected by weather or temperature. A third innovation is that this study looks for any potential ageing processes specific to gender and physique. Fourth, fractional polynomials have been added to the testing methodology. Contrary to intuition, we find evidence that women are affected by faster age-related reductions in performance.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Women, Aging, Men, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11154. Perceived Externalities of Cell Phone Base Stations Stations – The Case of Property Prices in The Case of Property Prices in Hamburg, Germany Hamburg, Germany

Author:
Sebastian Brandt and Wolfgang Maennig
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
We examine the impact of cell phone base stations on prices of condominiums in Hamburg, Germany. This is the first hedonic pricing study on this subject for real estates in Europe and the first worldwide which examines the price impact of base stations within a whole metropolis. We distinguish between individual masts and groups of masts. Based on a data set of over 1,000 base stations set up in Hamburg, we find that only immediate proximity to groups of antenna masts is perceived as harmful by residents of nearby condominiums. For individual masts, however, no effect on residential property prices in the surrounding areas has been observed indicating that cell phone service providers should prevent installation of groups of masts in a single location. We control for spatial dependence and show that the influence of cell phone base stations on adjacent residential property prices can be overestimated, if other negative externalities that are typically correlated with the proximity to base stations are neglected.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Property, and Cell Phone Base Stations
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Hamburg

11155. On the Palestinian issue, how much credit should Europe get amongst Arab opinion for its economic and political support?

Author:
Ralitsa Trifonova
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The formulation in the Council of Ministers’ of the European Union statement, issued on 8 December 2009, that within “an agreed time-frame” an independent Palestinian state should emerge on the Middle East’s political map raised hopes for a breakthrough in the remaining unsolved more than 60 years Palestinian issue. Together with the statement of the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in Moscow in the late 2009, this formulation is viewed by members of the Palestinian National Authority itself as a sign, in being specific in contrast with previous statements excluding a set timeframe for the establishment of a viable independent Palestinian state. After the unveiled Israeli violations of the international law during the last war over Gaza, a lot of voices not only in Palestine, but from all over world are revealing the impatience, reaching its nadir as Israeli behaviour does not represent threat only to the Palestinian people, but to the whole international system, especially when it shelled the headquarters of one the United Nations agencies on 15 January 2009. Some analysts believe that after the continued over 60 year’s failure of the USA to reach any significant progress to the benefit of the Palestinian people, it is high time Europe entered the Middle East arena as the third party, which would lead the two parties of the IsraeliPalestinian issue to a balanced solution, which does not reply on forced compromise. As the distrust of the Palestinian people with the USA is growing, Europe would only play a positive role if it were a trust-worthy ally itself. In order to give this alternative a positive perspective, we need to go back to the beginning of the European involvement in the Palestinian issue, to follow its own history of internal development, to explore the character of its economic aid and the existence of political support to the Palestinian people in their most turbulent and crucial moments in last four decades.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Human Rights, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

11156. Europe in Yemen: Still Much to Do

Author:
Lorenzo Piras
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The international community is helping Yemen by providing support in many different areas, most notably in the governance sector and in the fight against poverty and hunger. The European Union, acting through the European Commission, is one of the main donors to Yemen, and the individual Member States are actively engaged in the country, both backing the government’s development and social plans and carrying out some autonomous projects. This article will examine the state of the art European intervention in Yemen, with regard to both EC-funded development programmes and, in a broader perspective, to the strategic goals of Brussels in the country. The weaknesses of the European action in Yemen and the criticism it drew, especially from other Middle Eastern countries, will then be anazlyzed. Lastly, this piece will try to highlight how and with which objectives European efforts should be structured in order to stabilize Yemen effectively
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Political stability, and Development Aid
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Yemen

11157. Jordanian Tribal Violence: Historical Context and Current Problems

Author:
Hayley Mohan
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan’s rich developmental history in both the political and social spheres have been complex and dynamic, ever since the country’s creation in the early 1920s. If any research pertaining to Jordan’s society is to be understood, it first must be placed in a historical context, and later examined on its own. Perhaps the most prevalent social issue facing this country is violence between tribes and dangerous infighting. While crime is considered low in Jordan,1 2009 started a seemingly peculiar upswing in the number of violent disputes between tribes. Although the problem itself is not new because Jordan has always been a tribally organized society, the statistics of 2009, which will be discussed later on, provide an interesting foundation for discussion. Using that year as a jumping-off point, we will ask several key questions to anchor our research: What is the historical background of tribes in Jordan? Has this changed over time? What made 2009 an unusual year? What can we conclude, or solutions can be suggested? Ideally, discovered case studies and examples will be able to help us glean an understanding of this complicated social issue.
Topic:
History, Conflict, Violence, Tribes, and Society
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

11158. The Jordan River Dilemma: A Basic Game Theoretical Approach

Author:
Maurice R. Wingo
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
Fresh water resources are scarce in Jordan, Palestine, Syria and Israel. The situation is expected to worsen in these countries as they expand by population and economy. Regional water scarcity and the resulting overdrafting of the Jordan River can be framed and analyzed in a Game Theory (GT) framework. An existing GT study of the Nile River Basin can act as a principle example and reference. The goal of this essay is to better understand how we can save a dying Jordan River, and possibly achieve a more efficient regional water diversion scheme.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, Scarcity, and Game Theory
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, Jordan, and Jordan Valley

11159. The Economic Condition of Displaced Iraqis Living in Jordan: A Study of Vocational Training

Author:
Farah Thalji
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The Iraqi War has garnered international attention as a traumatic conflict in many respects. Rising death tolls, expensive military operations, internal fragmentation and civilian suffering have all become hallmarks of the ongoing conflict. This often overshadows the distress of Iraqis scattered to neighboring countries by the war. This report focuses the lens on displaced Iraqis who have fled to the neighboring Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to seek refuge. Refugees are used as the instrument for measuring the impact of the conflict and its residuals on others in the region. The subsequent goal is to demonstrate the rippling effect of conflict in such a manner that goes beyond the surface to the longer-term effects that are often overlooked by the media in favor of shocking short-term events. One problem Iraqis face in Jordan is economic survival. There is a pervasive attitude that Jordan only harbors wealthy Iraqis. While this stereotype may apply to some Iraqis, it is certainly not a reality for many –particularly considering that seven years have passed since the start of the war and personal funds have been depleting. One of the troubles that Iraqis in Jordan now face is the inability to participate in the labor force due to legal restrictions. With an estimated population of somewhere between 450,000 to 700,000 Iraqis amongst Jordan’s population of 6 million, this poses a serious problem. An assessment of the situation attempts to understand the Iraqi effort for survival by focusing on vocational training and support for displaced Iraqis. The goal of such an effort is to capture the Iraqi attempt to transition into the labor market in Jordan. It also reflects that economic involvement in the Jordanian economy is becoming increasingly necessary as security continues to remain an issue in Iraq and the fear of return persists. Discussing the political and legal as well as the social status of Iraqis in Jordan forms a necessary foundation for the study of their economic situation and the subsequent merit of vocational training programs.2
Topic:
Economics, Refugees, Displacement, and Vocational Training
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Jordan

11160. Azerbaijan’s Accession to World Trade Organization (WTO); Pros and Cons

Author:
Vugar Bayramov
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD) together with Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) have published new policy paper titled as “Azerbaijan’s accession to the WTO: Assessing the macroeconomic consequences for the economy of Azerbaijan”. The paper analyzes the macroeconomic consequences for Azerbaijan’s economy in case the country joins the World Trade Organization (WTO ). Existing studies primarily draw on qualitative methods, while for this study a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the economy is calculated to simulate the consequences of WTO accession. The authors are able to generate numeric forecasts for macroeconomic variables as a measure for welfare and elaborate how WTO accession, interpreted as an external shock to the economy, would affect these variables. This study is, therefore, a unique contribution to the public and academic debate as it is the first study to quantitatively gauge the effects of accession beyond qualitative arguments. To contextualize the quantitative findings, several independent experts were interviewed to compile their opinions on WTO accession. The results of this study suggest positive welfare effects of WTO accession through increases in income, consumption and savings. However, the forecasts generated through our model reveal that exports would plummet as a consequence of accession. This must be of particular concern for the Azerbaijani economy with its oil and energy sector currently being the main driver of gross domestic product, foreign direct investment and exports. As a consequence, the Azerbaijani economy needs to diversify rapidly and decrease its dependence on oil to realize positive effects on general welfare that could be triggered through WTO accession. Whether these positive effects will materialize in the long run is hard to predict, although the qualitative evidence cited in this study suggests that accession would bring along important incentives for diversification.
Topic:
Economics, Oil, World Trade Organization, and Trade
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

11161. Fracture Lines: Will Canada's Water Be Protected in the Rush to Develop Gas?

Author:
Ben Parfitt
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto
Abstract:
On October 14, 2010, POWI released a discussion paper and held a conference on Fracture Lines: Will Canada’s Water Be Protected in the Rush to Develop Shale Gas? The conference and the discussion paper were the first major formal public discussion in Canada of the shale gas issue. As supplies of fossil fuel dwindle, oil and gas companies are increasingly looking to unconventional sources such as shale gas to supply energy needs. The Fracture Lines paper outlined the potential impacts of shale gas exploration and production on groundwater resources, and described the paucity of groundwater mapping and lack of effective regulatory oversight. With possible shale gas deposits in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick and a loud public outcry against shale gas drilling in Quebec, the conference attracted a wealth of attention. Because of its availability in both languages and its timeliness, the conference received extensive media coverage and over 500 logins to the webcast. In the wake of the conference, the research contained in the Fracture Lines report was determined to be a major factor in the decision to expand the terms of reference for a Parliamentary Committee studying offshore drilling issues in Canada. The Committee opted to include shale gas in its deliberations. The issue of how to protect groundwater resources from the impacts of shale gas exploration continues to be a burning issue, across Canada and around the world.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Oil, Water, and Gas
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

11162. After the Orange Era: Economic Prospects in Ukraine

Author:
Dmytro Boyarchuk, Kateryna Ruskykh, Olga Kravets, and Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
When Victor Yanukovich won Ukraine’s presidential election in February 2010, it marked the official end of the Orange Revolution. Soon after taking office, Yanukovich managed to form a loyal parliamentary coalition in a legally dubious way and, consequently, appointed his ally Mykola Azarov as Prime Minister. Indeed this decision may have made state governance more predictable and even provided for shortterm economic stability, but it may have come at the expense of Ukraine’s democratic freedom and long-term economic prospects.
Topic:
Development, Reform, Institutions, Economic Stability, Post-Soviet Space, and Victor Yanukovich
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

11163. Bulgaria’s Fiscal Expansion: Navigating Through Stormy Waters

Author:
Georgy Ganev
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
When the global economic crisis wreaked havoc across the world, most governments responded with a dramatic increase in spending. Their reactions had two main goals in mind: first, to bailout failing financial systems and second, to substitute the decline in private demand with a boost in aggregate public spending. For Bulgaria, fiscal stimulus programs proved to present their own unique set of challenges.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Bulgaria

11164. Will the U.S. Dollar Remain the Global Reserve Currency?

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The U.S. economy’s rapidly growing trade and current account deficits (2003-2007) and systematic weakening of the dollar against the Euro and other currencies raised several concerns about its future as the global reserve currency. The global financial crisis of 2007-2009, while reinforcing the U.S. dollar’s role as the most liquid and in demand currency (especially during periods of increased risk aversion) triggered a political debate on how the future global reserve currency system should be shaped.
Topic:
Finance, Economy, Currency, Dollar, and Euro
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

11165. Macroeconomic Surveillance Within the EU

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The new European Union (EU) economic governance package released by the European Commission on September 29, 2010 includes two major components, i.e., changes and amendments to the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and new regulation on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances within the EU and European Monetary Union (EMU). While the first piece offers a certain improvement in the EU fiscal surveillance rules the second one looks deeply flawed and operationally unenforceable.
Topic:
Debt, Financial Crisis, Governance, European Union, Macroeconomics, and European Monetary Union
Political Geography:
Europe

11166. Limits of Quantitative Easing

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"The recent decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) to increase its assets by purchasing $600 billion worth of Treasury bonds is unlikely to boost economic growth or employment prospects in the U.S. Instead, it will cause damage to the world economy and may even lead to another financial crisis (especially in emerging and developing markets), where the U.S. dollar remains a leading reserve and transaction currency."
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Economy, Macroeconomics, and Currency
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

11167. Revolutionizing Taiwan’s Security: Leveraging C4ISR for traditional and non-traditional challenges

Author:
Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
As a global leader in technology, Taiwan is yet to leverage the information revolution for its C4ISR needs. Faced with an array of security challenges, from China’s conventional and electronic attack to the risk of natural disasters, Taiwan’s defense and disaster management capabilities can be fortified with advanced sensor, communications and satellite technology. In doing so, Taiwan can significantly improve its security outlook.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

11168. China’s Nuclear Warhead Storage and Handling System

Author:
Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
China maintains its operational nuclear warhead stockpile through a centralized storage and handling system managed by the People’s Liberation Army’s Second Artillery. A preliminary examination indicates that Beijing adopts a responsible and serious attitude with regards to nuclear security and safety. Yet, an expanding ballistic missile infrastructure in the absence of significant growth in their nuclear warhead stockpile could indicate an extension of Second Artillery’s conventional strike mission.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Nuclear Safety
Political Geography:
China and Asia

11169. Strengthening ASEAN-India Relations in the 21st Century

Author:
Prashanth Parameswaran
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
One of the most overlooked yet promising relationships in Asia is that between Southeast Asia and India. The Asia-Pacific region as a whole would benefit from a closer partnership between ASEAN and India, particularly in the areas of counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics, climate change, and natural disaster relief. While the impetus for mutual cooperation is strong, forging a strong partnership in the 21st century will require ASEAN and India to overcome several formidable challenges and seize key opportunities with courage, vision and deftness.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Counter-terrorism, Partnerships, Regional Integration, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

11170. Evolving Aerospace Trends in the Asia-Pacific Region: Implications for Stability in the Taiwan Strait and Beyond

Author:
Mark Stokes and Ian Easton
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Aerospace power is unquestionably defining the future strategic environment in a region whose vast distances place a premium on speed and agility that defy the laws of gravity. This monograph addresses trends in China’s force modernization, strategy, and doctrine; development of conventional air force, air and missile defense, and long range precision strike modernization in Taiwan, Japan, India, and the United States; and options for countering the coercive utility of evolving PRC aerospace power, including cooperative threat reduction initiatives.
Topic:
Deterrence, Modernization, Strategic Stability, Military, and Aerospace
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia-Pacific

11171. The Next Steps in Japan-NATO Cooperation

Author:
Randall Schriver and Tiffany Ma
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The Japan-NATO relationship holds greater potential than has been realized to date. A more ambitious, more formal, and more active program for Japan’s involvement with NATO could include enhanced intelligence and information sharing, planning and exercising, defense technical cooperation programs, consultations on strategic deterrence, and a joint Arctic security initiative. While obstacles to closer cooperation are foreseeable, a stronger and closer Japan-NATO relationship will have strategic benefits that resonate beyond the trans-Atlantic region.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Intelligence Sharing
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Arctic

11172. Mirage or Reality? Asia’s Emerging Human Rights and Democracy Architecture

Author:
Kelley Currie
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The report examines the history, current status and future trends of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR), the Bali Democracy Forum (BDF), and the Asia Pacific Democracy Partnership (APDP). The report also looks at the role that key countries in and around the region are playing in the development of these mechanisms, as well as in shaping the broader context for improved human rights and democratic governance.
Topic:
Human Rights, Governance, Democracy, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Asia

11173. Issues In Fiscal Policy Management Under The Economic Reforms

Author:
Bright Okogu
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
Oil-dependent economies face two interrelated challenges in the management of oil resources: in the short run, there is the need to create a stable macroeconomic environment by delinking oil revenue earnings from public expenditures, while in the long run it is necessary to maintain a sustainable use of resources that ensures intergenerational equity. In most of the past three decades, Nigeria's management of oil resources was poor. The Nigerian economy has experienced significant macroeconomic volatility, driven largely by external terms-of-trade shocks, the country's large reliance on oil export earnings and poor policy choices in the management of oil revenues. By some measures, Nigeria ranked among the most volatile economies in the world for the period 19602000. Moreover, contrary to the received wisdom of increasing financial assets as a means of saving oil revenues, Nigeria had accrued significant domestic and foreign liabilities.
Topic:
Oil, Reform, Economy, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

11174. Implementing The Fiscal Responsibility Act At The State Level In Nigeria

Author:
Vanessa Ushie
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
Fiscal responsibility acts have become increasingly common tools to enhance fiscal prudence and public expenditure transparency in many countries. In Nigeria, fiscal profligacy at the sub-national level has emerged as a major contributor to state corruption and macroeconomic instability.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, Fiscal Policy, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

11175. Foreign Aid And The Real Exchange Rate In The West African Economic And Monetary Union

Author:
Eberechukwu Uneze
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the relationship between foreign aid and the real exchange rate to determine how the competitiveness of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) is affected by foreign aid.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Aid, Exchange Rates, Competition, and West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

11176. Is Corruption Really Bad for Inequality? Evidence from Latin America

Author:
Carlyn Dobson and Antonio Rodríguez Andrés
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper presents new evidence on the relationship between corruption and income inequality. Using a panel data methodology, we find that lower corruption is associated with higher income inequality in Latin America. This result is in contrast to other empirical studies but it makes sense in Latin America for a number of reasons. The finding of an inverse relationship between inequality and corruption suggests that institutional reform policies by themselves may be misguided.
Topic:
Corruption, Reform, and Income Inequality
Political Geography:
Latin America

11177. The Value of Water in Bolivia: An Economic Resource or a Human Right?

Author:
Enrique Castañón Ballivián
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
After the 2000 ‘Water-War’, access to water in Bolivia has become a major social demand and thus a prime and contentious political issue. The event has revealed an overwhelming opposition to neo-liberal approaches to water management and has allowed the articulation of a new discourse that sees water not as an economic resource but as a human right. In this context, the paper reviews the two contrasting positions within the debate about whether or not water should be treated as an economic resource. In doing so, it presents the arguments underpinning each position which then allows it to elaborate some relevant conclusions.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, War, Water, Culture, and Indigenous
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

11178. Public Expenditure Policy in Bolivia: Growth and Welfare

Author:
Carlos Gustavo Machicado, Paul Estrada, and Ximena Flores
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
It has been widely documented that fiscal policy can promote economic growth, when it is based on an efficient provision of pubic capital. But little work has been done, in Bolivia, in relation to the macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of increasing public investment in infrastructure. This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for a small open economy with five sectors: Non-tradable or services, importable or manufacturing, hydrocarbons, mining and agriculture. The model is parameterized and solved for the Bolivian economy and several interesting scenarios are simulated by changing government expenditures, taxes, country risk, Total Factor Productivity, effectiveness of public capital and terms of trade. This analysis is relevant for the Bolivian economy, because the government is using fiscal policy as one of its main tool to attack poverty and aims to put public investment as the foremost instruments to promote growth and welfare.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, and Public Investment
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

11179. The changing role of the international community in the MDG achievement in Bolivia

Author:
Massimiliano Calì and Luis Carlos Jemio
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Millennium Development Goal number 8 (MDG8) concerns those external flows (Official Development Assistance, trade and debt relief) that ought to help developing countries achieve the MDGs by 2015. This paper reviews the role of these MDG8- related external flows in the case of Bolivia. Riding on high international prices for its major exports, and on fiscal expansion, remittances and debt forgiveness, Bolivia has experienced solid economic performance in the past few years. This economic performance coupled with the recent increase in social public expenditures by the government has increased the likelihood that the country will achieve all of the MDGs by 2015, except probably for MDG 2. These advances have been achieved in a period of radical change in Bolivia’s dependence on MDG8-related external flows. The composition of external finance in public expenditure has shifted from domination by ODA and debt forgiveness in the first half of the decade to domination by trade, mainly through revenues from hydrocarbon exports. Our findings support the idea that the provision of additional financial resources may not be the priority with regard to organising support to MDG achievements. Spending efficiently and effectively seems to be a more important area for support in Bolivia. As far as trade is concerned, Bolivia already enjoys good market access in its main markets, thus better access through lower non-tariff barriers may be more relevant than improving access in terms of tariffs. Moreover access to markets would be easier if Bolivia were better integrated with world markets, with its regional neighbours in particular. This calls for the support of the international community through aid for trade (AfT), which has instead been worryingly dwindling in recent years. Finally, we argue that MDG8 could be pursued in Bolivia through support for improving access to technology and access to affordable drugs.
Topic:
Debt, Millennium Development Goals, Economy, Trade, and Development Aid
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

11180. Social Impacts of Climate Change in Brazil: A municipal level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on income, health and inequality

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen, Soraya Román, and Dorte Verner
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
The paper uses data from 5,507 municipalities in Brazil to estimate the relationships between climate and income as well as climate and health, and then uses the estimated relationships to gauge the effects of past and future climate change on income levels and life expectancy in each of these municipalities. The simulations indicate that climate change over the past 50 years has tended to cause an overall drop in incomes in Brazil of about four percent, with the initially poorer and hotter municipalities in the north and northeast Brazil suffering bigger losses than the initially richer and cooler municipalities in the south. The simulations thus suggest that climate change has contributed to an increase in inequality between Brazilian municipalities, as well as to an increase in poverty. The climate change projected for the next 50 years is estimated to have similar, but more pronounced effects, causing an overall reduction in incomes of about 12 percent, holding all other things constant. Again, the initially poorer municipalities in the already hot northern regions are likely to suffer more from additional warming than the initially richer and cooler municipalities in the south, indicating that projected future climate change would tend to contribute to increased poverty and income inequality in Brazil.
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, Income Inequality, and Social Impacts
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

11181. Social Impacts of Climate Change in Mexico: A municipality level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen and Dorte Verner
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper uses municipality level data to estimate the general relationships between climate, income and child mortality in Mexico. Climate was found to play only a very minor role in explaining the large differences in income levels and child mortality rates observed in Mexico. This implies that Mexico is considerably less vulnerable to expected future climate change than other countries in Latin America.
Topic:
Climate Change, Municipalities, Income, and Child Mortality
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

11182. Effects of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis on the Bolivian Economy: A CGE Approach

Author:
Martin Cicowiez and Carlos Gustavo Machicado
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Bolivian economy. The PEP 1-1 Standard Model has been employed to analyze the effects of a reduction in (i) the world export prices of mining and agriculture, (ii) the world demand of textiles, and (iii) transfers to households (i.e., remittances) from abroad. The model has been calibrated to a new 2006 SAM for Bolivia. The households have been disaggregated according to their location (urban and rural) and ethnicity (indigenous and non-indigenous). The factors of production have been disaggregated into skilled and unskilled labor, capital, and natural resources. Not surprisingly, our results highlight the relevance of the decrease in the export price of natural gas in explaining the negative effects of the Global Financial Crisis.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Gas, Economy, Forecast, and Simulation
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

11183. The Impact of Internet Use on Individual Earnings in Latin America

Author:
Lucas Navarro
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper uses matching techniques to examine the impact of internet use on individual earnings in six Latin American countries using recent household surveys data. Given their different internet use patterns and their implications, the analysis is done for salaried and self-employed workers separately. While salaried workers users mainly access the internet at work, self employed users access the internet mainly at other places. Therefore, the returns to internet use for salaried workers may be associated not only to individual but also to workplace characteristics. Results indicate a large effect of internet use on earnings for both groups of workers in most of the countries studied. These returns are high compared with estimates for industrialized countries. This could be explained by the much lower prevalence of internet use in the region for the international standards. Additionally, given that the estimations rely on cross-section data, they may not fully control for individuals’ characteristics before internet adoption. This calls for the need of panel-data on new ICTs diffusion in the region.
Topic:
Internet, Self-Employment, and Income
Political Geography:
Latin America

11184. Inflationary memory as restrictive factor of the impact of the public expense in the economic growth: lessons from high inflation Latin American countries using an innovative inflationary memory indicator

Author:
Ernesto Sheriff
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
A new inflationary memory indicator was developed and applied here. A panel was built with the selected countries considering the economic growth as dependent variable in function of the convergence hypothesis, the inflation rate, the public expense and, the recursive variance of the inflation (VARINF) as inflationary memory indicator. The expected results of the panel were that the inflation and their variability affect the growth negatively neutralizing the possible effects that it could have the public expense on the same one. Five Latin American countries with experiences of high inflation were included (Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Peru and Nicaragua).
Topic:
Economy, Economic Growth, Inflation, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Nicaragua, Peru, and Bolivia

11185. Insights from Bolivia’s Green National Accounts

Author:
Luis Carlos Jemio and Lykke E. Andersen
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
The purpose of the present paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of Green National Accounting by drawing out some interesting insights from the Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounts recently elaborated by the Institute for Advanced Development Studies for the case of Bolivia. The paper uses the Green National Accounts to show the importance of environmental inputs in 7 different productive sectors and compares the corresponding natural resource rents to the level of producer taxes in each sector. The paper also analyses the evolution of total productive capital, in order to judge whether Bolivia’s current development model can be considered sustainable. The paper finished with recommendations about interesting extensions that can be made to the Green National Accounts.
Topic:
Development, Environment, Natural Resources, and Economy
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

11186. Bolivian Sub-national Revenues: A Review

Author:
Beatriz Muriel H.
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This papers reviews main topics concerning sub-national revenues (intergovernmental transfers and taxes) and discusses some policy options to develop own sub-national revenues. The review covers the political-legal framework and the fiscal outcomes, finding that: i) intergovernmental transfers policies have expanded over time, generating inequity problems, principally at the departmental level; ii) sub-national revenues depend mostly on intergovernmental transfers; this has generated high levels of vertical imbalances, mainly for department governments whose revenues rely mostly on the hydrocarbons sector; and iii) lack of adequate tax policies that promote fiscal effort and equity led to large horizontal imbalances in municipal per capita tax collection, unrelated to poverty or human development differences. In this regard, policy options were discussed to increase own sub-national revenues, taking into account political and social discussions, the economic, fiscal and legal base, and relevant tax principles. The main recommendations are: i) to promote in-kind contributions (materials and labour) at the municipal level, especially in poor rural municipalities; ii) to improve municipal tax administration supporting the continuation of the RUAT’s work and improving the registry with the new census; and iii) to evaluate the possibility of redefining the RC-IVA as a personal income tax shared between the central government and the departments.
Topic:
Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, Decentralization, and Revenue
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

11187. Post-2012 U.S. Leadership and U.S. Policy toward East Asia

Author:
Young Kwon Sohn
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
2012 the United States will hold another presidential election, and it will surely be a referendum on the first term of the Obama presidency. As usual, the election will attract the attention of the public and the pundits alike, both at home and abroad, particularly at a time when an increasing number of people will be interested in how the election’s outcome will affect U.S. foreign policy and, related to it, the Sino-American bipolar configuration in East Asia. Since the Cheonan incident in the West Sea in the spring of 2009, particularly, the evolution and interaction of the Sino-American relationship in East Asia has become the focus of speculation among policy analysts and practitioners. That said, the outcome of the 2012 U.S. presidential election raises several questions. Will the 2012 presidential election bring a new leadership team to the White House? And will the outcome, new leaders or not, affect the overall tone of U.S. strategy in East Asia? If not, what other factors should be considered in forecasting the future of East Asia? Although a definitive answer to these questions cannot be had when we are still two years away from the 2012 presidential election, addressing them, nevertheless, is an intriguing mental exercise. We can say immediately that it is unlikely that the outcome of the 2012 election will be the dominant factor determining the United States’ strategy in East Asia as of 2013. Because of the rising power of China and the ever-hardening bipolarized structure of power in the region, significant changes in post-2012 East Asia are more likely to be triggered by changes from within East Asia itself, rather than from the United States. An ambitious China, taking a more aggressive posture toward both its neighbors and the United States, could be a potentially destabilizing factor in the region. Internal changes in North Korea could also be regionally destabilizing. The United States’ East Asian policy would thus be somewhat reactive in its general tone, although not passive. The U.S. stance could be firm and even assertive, however, depending on the situation, just as it was recently in dealing with China’s bid for expansion toward the South China Sea.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Leadership
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

11188. The Impact of North Korea’s Artillery Strike on Public Opinion in South Korea

Author:
Nae-Young Lee and Han-Wool Jeong
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
On November 23, 2010, North Korea launched a deadly artillery barrage on Yeonpyeong Island; a South Korean island situated 12km off the North Korean coastline. Although ROK Marines returned fire, two Marines and two civilians were killed in the attack by the North. There have been several incidents since the Armistice Agreement that brought an end to the Korean War was signed on July 27, 1953, but this has been the first time a military attack has killed civilians. The EAI/Han-Kook Research November Public Opinion Barometer, which was conducted after the North Korean attack on Yeonpyeong Island, reveals that 81.5% of respondents feel they are “concerned” about insecurity (34.9% “very concerned”+ 46.6% “slightly concerned”). This is the highest number since the survey first began in 2000.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Public Opinion, Conflict, Missile Defense, and Survey
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

11189. Economic Interdependence, Alliance Cooperation, and Sino-U.S. Complex Interdependence

Author:
Scott Snyder
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
China’s rising economic strength has highlighted a need to understand in greater detail the impact of complex economic interdependence on prospects for alliance cohesion, especially when an ally comes to depend on a potential adversary as its leading trading partner and engine for economic growth. This is an issue that did not come into play to any significant degree in analyzing alliance dynamics during the cold war era precisely because the development of security and economic relationships during that period were aligned with and served to reinforce each other, and the level of economic ties among potential cold-war adversaries was minimal. Analysis of trade relationships among security allies from that period shows a clear correlation of preferences for trading relationships with security partners versus adversaries, but it is not clear based on that data alone that there was necessarily causality between economic trade patterns and security alliances. In fact, structural differences between market economies (that tended to be allied with each other) and non-market economies were a significant deterrent to the development of economic relations with non-security partners during the cold war. In the post-cold war era, economically interdependent trade and investment relationships have been relatively unconstrained by political and security considerations, resulting in a situation where non-security partners such as China, a potential challenger to U.S. power, have become actively integrated in global supply chains as a leading manufacturer of goods for the global market. In considering this question, Dong Sun Lee and Sung Eun Kim have attempted to provide an empirical analysis of the influence of bilateral economic relations as a factor in shaping America’s Asian alliances, concluding that “economic ties do not markedly reinforce the security alliances of East Asia, because they have an asymmetrical structure”(Lee and Kim 2010, 4). But in making the argument that asymmetry matters, Lee and Kim assume that the economic consequences of interdependence are negative for dynamics within the alliance and that these negative consequences may cancel out positive effects of economic interdependence, even though the main argument of that the paper proves is that economic ties do not necessarily reinforce security alliances. The authors’ assertions regarding asymmetrical economic relations as having an impact on alliance dynamics are unproven and not dealt with to any significant degree by the evidence presented in the paper.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Alliance, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

11190. A Complex Strategy to Overcome the Yeonpyeong Incident

Author:
Young-Sun Ha
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Since North Korea’s deadly artillery barrage on Yeonpyeong Island, South Korea has been stepping up efforts in its defense posture and international cooperation. In preparing against any further provocation from the North, Seoul has been reinforcing forces on the island, strengthening defense and deterrence capabilities, and drastically increasing its defense budget. Somewhat belatedly, it has also been taking up actions to reexamine the strategies of the ROK-U.S. military alliance, demanding cooperation from China and Russia while maintaining the traditional trilateral cooperation with the United States and Japan. Of course, analyzing the causes of the weak response to the shelling and preparing to prevent further provocations are undoubtedly important. However, reading the bigger picture and formulating key strategies for the future is a far more critical task. The Kim Jong-il/Kim Jong-un leadership in November 2010 conducted two consecutive moves—revealing its uranium enrichment facilities and launching an artillery strike on Yeonpyeong Island. Understanding the situation of the whole East Asian region, while at the same time anticipating Pyongyang’s strategies and taking preemptive actions will be the main challenges ahead for Seoul. Firstly, it is important to understand the range of North Korea’s strategic options from aggressive diplomacy to peaceful diplomacy. The Korean Peninsula went through the Korean War in 1950 and following of the ceasefire, both Koreas were stuck between ‘hot war’ and ‘cold war.’ Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the world has passed the stage of ‘cold peace’ and moved towards a ‘hot peace.’ In spite of this global shift, North Korea has been frequently using combinations of ‘cold war,’ ‘hot war,’ ‘cold peace,’ and ‘hot peace’ on the international strategic chessboard. For example, during the Cold War period North Korea provoked the South in a number of cases: Rangoon bombing (1983), bombing of Korean Air Flight 858 (1987), attempted Blue House raid (1968), North Korean infiltration in the Uljin and Samcheok areas (1968). Even in the post-Cold War period, nuclear tests, naval battles in the Yellow Sea, the sinking of Cheonan naval ship and the shelling on Yeonpyeong Island ensued. At the same time, Pyongyang has been aggressively demanding for a peace agreement to this day. The possibility for limited warfare on the Korean Peninsula came dangerously close with the recent Yeonpyeong shelling, more so than the last North Korean provocation, the sinking of the Cheonan. As the pendulum of war and peace on the Korean Peninsula swung from the ‘cold war’ to ‘hot war,’ greater chaos arise. It is expected that the Kim Jong-il/Kim Jong-un regime will try to maximize the use of this pendulum of peace and war in order to strengthen Kim Jong-un’s weak power base. In spite of the dangers, merely worrying about the possibility of war is not going to help. Rather, we have to understand precisely why the North has raised the bar of aggression from acts of terrorism to that of a direct artillery attack on South Korean territory. It is likely that the North would pursue a ‘cold peace’ offensive to utilize the amplitude of the pendulum. A complex picture emerges when looking back on the recent comments made by top officials from North Korea, the United States, and China. Seoul and Washington have called for Pyongyang to engage in measures for active denuclearization and reengagement in inter-Korean relations as preconditions for resuming the Six-Party Talks. North Korea on the other hand has taken precisely the opposite measures. To read what the North Korean regime has in mind we have to think of the situation not as a motionless snapshot but as a moving footage. Furthermore, South Korea must do more than just respond to North Korea’s actions. Instead it should focus on making strategically preemptive moves. For this, it is necessary to examine why the North Korean regime expanded the pendulum’s amplitude and find measures to make the leadership pursue a survival strategy that does not include huddling around nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

11191. Calypso's Cosmopolitan Strategy: Race, Nation, and Global Culture in Postwar Canada

Author:
Michael Eldridge
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:
What I mean to do in this essay, then, is trace calypso’s trajectory across the historically porous U.S-Canada border, in order to take fuller measure of its international ambitions in the mid- twentieth century. In the process, I hope to shine a light on West Indian influence over the layout of the Canadian mosaic and the logic of Canadian multiculturalism, well before that word became a catchphrase of government policy and part of the mythology of Canadian identity. But I also want to puzzle out what Canadians’ embrace of calypso during this same period signified. That, more than anything, will help us understand what sort of symbolic work calypso was doing in the True North. Canadians, of course, are famously, chronically anxious to distinguish themselves from Americans, and so I’ll concede from the start that calypso per se may have played a less direct role in calming nerves about race and national identity north of Niagara than it did in the U.S. I want to argue nevertheless that the full story of calypso in Canada still involves considerable tension over those fraught topics. And so the more significant distinction to draw, I think, is that the Canadian jitters sprang from a very different set of demographics, as well as from a rather different relationship to the history of British Empire and Commonwealth, than their American counterparts. Before we evaluate Caresser’s job performance as Canada’s hired projectionist, then, we would do well to review some of the salient facts.
Topic:
Nationalism, Race, Culture, and Multiculturalism
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

11192. How Did a Domestic Housing Slump Turn into a Global Financial Crisis?

Author:
Steven B. Kamin and Laurie Pounder DeMarco
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The global financial crisis clearly started with problems in the U.S. subprime sector and spread across the world from there. But was the direct exposure of foreigners to the U.S. financial system a key driver of the crisis, or did other factors account for its rapid contagion across the world? To answer this question, we assessed whether countries that held large amounts of U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and were highly dependent on dollar funding experienced a greater degree of financial distress during the crisis. We found little evidence of such “direct contagion” from the United States to abroad. Although CDS spreads generally rose higher and bank stocks generally fell lower in countries with more exposure to U.S. MBS and greater dollar funding needs, these correlations were not robust, and they fail to explain the lion’s share of the deterioration in asset prices that took place during the crisis. Accordingly, channels of “indirect contagion” may have played a more important role in the global spread of the crisis: a generalized run on global financial institutions, given the opacity of their balance sheets; excessive dependence on short-term funding; vicious cycles of mark-to-market losses driving fire sales of MBS; the realization that financial firms around the world were pursuing similar (flawed) business models; and global swings in risk aversion. The U.S. subprime crisis, rather than being a fundamental driver of the global crisis, may have been merely a trigger for a global bank run and for disillusionment with a risky business model that already had spread around the world.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Global Financial Crisis, and Housing
Political Geography:
United States and North America

11193. Interest on Excess Reserves as a Monetary Policy Instrument: The Experience of Foreign Central Banks

Author:
David Bowman, Etienne Gagnon, and Mike Leahy
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper reviews the experience of eight major foreign central banks with policy interest rates comparable to the interest rate on excess reserves paid by the Federal Reserve. We pursue two main lines of inquiry: 1) To what extent have these policy interest rates been lower bounds for short-term market rates, and 2) to what extent has tightening that included increasing these policy rates been achieved without reliance on reductions in reserves or other deposits held at the central bank? The foreign experience suggests that policy rate floors can be effective lower bounds for market rates, although incomplete access to central bank accounts and interest on them weakens this result. In addition, the foreign experience suggests that tightening by increasing the interest rate paid on central bank balances can help reduce or eliminate the need to drain balances. These results are consistent with theoretical results that show that tightening without draining is possible, irrespective of whether excess reserves are large or small.
Topic:
Markets, Interest Rates, Central Bank, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11194. Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy

Author:
Steven B. Kamin
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper reviews the available evidence and previous research on potential effects of financial globalization, that is, the international integration of financial markets. In particular, we address the questions: Has financial globalization materially increased the influence of external developments on domestic monetary conditions? And, has it reduced the influence of central banks over financial and economic conditions in their own country? We find that central banks with floating currencies retain the ability to independently determine short-term interest rates and thus influence broader financial conditions and macroeconomic performance in their economies. However, domestic financial conditions appear to have become more vulnerable to a wide range of external shocks, complicating the task of making appropriate monetary policy decisions. Moreover, the financial crisis has highlighted the importance of cross-border channels for the transmission of liquidity and credit shocks. With financial transactions increasingly being undertaken in vehicle currencies such as dollars and euros, the liquidity provision and the lender-of-last resort functions of many central banks are being challenged. Accordingly, international arrangements for liquidity provision may become increasingly important in the future.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Interest Rates
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11195. Turkey's Maturing Foreign Policy: A View from the USA

Author:
Jessica Sims
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
In 2009, both the US and Turkey witnessed significant changes to both their domestic and foreign policies. After an examination of how key figures’ ideas have impacted the trajectory of the US and Turkey’s domestic policies, the article looks beyond the domestic context at how each country is pursuing its foreign policy. Within each country’s foreign policy schemes the most important emerging issues affecting both nations and the USTurkey relationship are discussed. Considering leaders’ statements and influential academics’ and journalists’ views, the article looks at whether US and Turkish policies converge or diverge on individual issues.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and United States of America

11196. The USA-Turkey Relationship After the 2003 Iraq Crisis

Author:
Şûle Anlar Güneş
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Turkey and the USA have been strategic allies since declaration of Truman Doctrine in 1947. This strategic partnership got worse due to the USA‘s politics towards Middle East after 9-11 tragedy and Turkey’s new changing domestic political situation through AKP in 2002. Specifically, 2003 Iraq crisis was milestone to decline the relationship between Turkey and the USA. In spite of deterioration of relationship, Turkey and the USA had to overcome this problem due to security, foreign, and economic concerns of both countries, and the process have advanced as expected. In this article, the US-Turkey relationship will be examined in the contexts of recent Iraq crisis, Turkey’s new approach to foreign policy, NATO, war on terrorism, European Union, and economic concerns in order to comprehend the new era of Turkey-US strategic partnership.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Economics, European Union, Crisis Management, and War on Terror
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

11197. The Integration of the Turks into German Society: Turks on Their Way to Parallel Societies or to True Integration?

Author:
Moritz Orendt
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Created as a nation-state in the beginning, Germany is not very prepared to deal with an increasing amount of people with different ethnic background. The largest group of non- German people is the Turkish one. Influenced by the media, many people doubt the possibility of true Turkish integration into the German society coexistence for mutual advantage in Germany. The subject of this essay is the examination of Turkish integration in Germany. First, the history of Turkish migration to Germany will be scrutinized in order to understand how the people, who live there now, initially came to Germany. Second, Turkish life in Germany will be examined and what moved them to stay. Third, we will look at the concept of integration and how it could be measured as objective as possible. Forth, the integration of the Turks in Germany will be evaluated referring to the concept from the section before. Finally, some proposals will be introduced in order to improve the Turkish integration which is actually in a bad shape.
Topic:
Migration, Minorities, Integration, and Society
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Germany

11198. The Bush Administration Fiasco from Hegemony to Empire and the Obama Restoration

Author:
Muharrem Ekşi
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
As the Bush administration started to implement the empire project, the US transformed from hegemony to an empire. However, since the project failed, the US, which could not be an empire either, passed into a revision period, as there is no way going back to hegemony. From that point on, the US lost its luxury to dictate “be either on our side or against us” like it did during Bush’s term. During the Bush administration the US tried to use its advantageous status in the changing world with its empire project and strived to shape the said change in favor of its own interests. However, it could not succeed and, on the contrary, ended up weakening its present effectiveness and lost its superiority in many fields. Subsequently the Obama administration will mostly clean up the mess left by the Bush administration and will go for a revision. To start with, the Obama administration has to be on good terms with the Islamic World because of the badly distorted relations during Bush’s term.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Globalization, Hegemony, Empire, and Neoconservatism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

11199. Multiculturalism in the Governance of the European Union and Contributions of Turkey's Accession

Author:
Cansu Arisoy
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Since 1920s Turkey and Europe have been in a continuous interaction. This active relationship has become more dynamic with the beginning of the accession process in the early 1990s. In this modern world where national borders are almost abolished with the impact of rising globalism the EU must show its authority as a consolidative power. In this respect EU can benefit from Turkey in many ways. In this article these benefits are discussed in terms of Turkey’s Muslim identity, population, energy and security. The benefits that will be provided by Turkey if it enters into the Union are handled on a socio-cultural basis.
Topic:
Globalization, Governance, Multiculturalism, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

11200. Means to What End? Policymaking and State-Building in Afghanistan

Author:
Sarah Parkinson
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
Afghanistan has been in “state-building” mode since 2001, and formal policymaking has been an important tool for focusing and coordinating the efforts of the Afghan government and its international supporters. This synthesis paper considers the role that high-level policymaking has actually played, through a comparative analysis of five different recent examples of policymaking including the drafting of the Afghan National Development Strategy and the controversial Shiite personal status law. It highlights both the high level of donor influence on shaping policy, and the limited effectiveness of policies themselves.
Topic:
Development, Nationalism, Governance, State Building, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East