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10401. Convergence Clubs in Latin America: A Historical Approach

Author:
Paola Andrea Barrientos Quiroga
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Literature on convergence among Latin American countries is still scarce compared to other regions. Almost none of the research connects convergence to the economic history of Latin America and the usual finding is one speed of convergence assuming one globally stable steady-state. In this paper I analyze 32 countries and 108 years, more observations than any other study, which allows me to use chronological events to explain, analyze and validate the historical convergence clubs in Latin America, assuming multiple steady-states. The chronological time-line is divided into three important known phases, from which I find two to three convergence clubs. Following Thorp (1998), the first phase, called “the exporting phase” goes from 1900 to 1930, the second, “the industrialization phase” from 1931 to 1974, and the last one, “the globalization phase” from 1975 to 2007. During the last two phases, I find strong evidence of convergence among those clubs that succeeded in industrializing and / or building good institutions. The reason may be that technology diffusion and capital accumulation is easier when these two phenomena occur. Furthermore, I find no evidence that geographical aspects nor integration processes helped countries to converge.
Topic:
History, Economic Growth, and Convergence
Political Geography:
Latin America

10402. Depressive mood and children: Europe and South Korea

Author:
Antonio Rodríguez Andrés, Rosemary L. Hopcroft, and Yong-Hwan Noh
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Using data for the third wave from the European Social Survey (ESS) and the Fourth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES), this research examines the relationship between having children at home and depression among men and women aged 18-75 years. Multilevel and probit regression models are applied. Our results show that there is a gender differential in depression. Having children at home improves psychological well-being for men only in 23 European countries and South Korea. In Europe we also find that depression tends to be lower in countries in which per capita income is higher. The results also show that household income is negatively associated with levels of depression in South Korea.
Topic:
Children, Mental Health, Depression, and Income
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and South Korea

10403. Determinants of Economic Growth in BRIC Countries

Author:
Rajeev K. Goel and Iikka Korhonen
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
We study economic growth in four emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC). Questions addressed are: (a) How do medium term growth determinants differ from short term determinants? (b) What are differences between growth effects of aggregate versus disaggregated exports? And (c) Does lower institutional quality hinder growth? Results show that while BRIC nations have higher growth, there are significant within-group differences. China and Russia mostly showed higher growth, while India sometimes showed positive growth, and Brazil did not outperform the rest. Policy implications are discussed.
Topic:
Corruption, Economic Growth, Institutions, Exports, and BRIC
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, and Brazil

10404. Rethinking Earnings Determinants in the Urban Areas of Bolivia

Author:
Beatriz Muriel H.
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the factors that explain earnings in levels and inequality in the urban areas of Bolivia, considering not only the usual individual characteristics (education, experience, gender, and ethnicity) but also firm characteristics. Given the information available at the firm level in the household surveys, two simple models were developed: one for independent workers (for which there is relatively detailed firm-level data), and the other for dependent workers (where firm variables were approximated by sector, size, and by the legal condition of the workers). The main econometric results show that: i) earnings regressions that include only individual variables present highly biased (overestimated) coefficients; ii) firm characteristics are fundamental factors for explaining earnings for independent workers, almost doubling R2 and explaining 45.5% of observed earnings inequality; and iii) firm proxies for dependent workers are also relevant; however, they explain wages at a lower percentage (11.8%), which may be due to non-detailed firm data and to the relatively higher importance of education for these workers. These new findings represent a contribution to the empirical literature on earnings determinants for urban Bolivia as well as to the vision of labor income and poverty problems.
Topic:
Inequality, Urban, Earnings, and Wages
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

10405. Foreign Aid – A Fillip for Development or a Fuel for Corruption?

Author:
Keith Blackburn and Gonzalo F. Forgues-Puccio
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
We present an analysis of the effects of foreign aid on economic development when the quality of governance may be compromised by corruption. The analysis is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model in which growth is driven by capital accumulation and public policy is administered by government-appointed bureaucrats. Corruption may arise due to the opportunity for bureaucrats to embezzle public funds which are otherwise used to provide productive public goods and services. Our main results may be summarized as follows: (1) corruption impedes economic development and compromises the effectiveness of aid programmers; (2) the incidence of corruption may, itself, be affected by both the development process and the donation of aid; (3) foreign aid is good for development when governance is good, but may be bad (perhaps very bad) for development when governance is bad; and (4) corruption and poverty may co-exist as permanent, rather than just transitory, fixtures of an economy
Topic:
Corruption, Development, Foreign Aid, and Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10406. Towards Universalism? The Obstructed Process of Healthcare Reform in Bolivia

Author:
Sebastian Sirén
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
In this article a process-tracing approach is used to explore how different factors have contributed to the development of healthcare policy in Bolivia, in light of the current proposal to introduce a unified public healthcare system. The main findings are that although international relations and state bureaucrats have been crucial to the process of formulating policies, the introduction of comprehensive reform will depend on the ability of groups who currently lack access to the healthcare system to form progressive coalitions promoting universalism, as well as the ability of those who benefit from the current arrangements to maintain the status quo. The ability to introduce comprehensive reforms is thus connected to the ongoing processes of decentralisation and democratisation of political decision-making in Bolivia. Although statecorporative welfare state institutions have been shown to be difficult to transform, low coverage levels in such systems combined with a process of increasing political inclusion of previously marginalised groups poses serious challenges to the status quo as the social aspect of citizenship is brought up on the agenda. In order to achieve universal coverage of the healthcare system, however, basic social rights of all citizens must be institutionalised at the same time as the scope and quality of services must be secured in order to avoid segmentation and to encourage the financial participation of the formal and middle income sectors.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Social Policy, and Institutions
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

10407. Employment and Labor Regulation: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in Bolivia, 1988-2007

Author:
Beatriz Muriel and Carlos Gustavo Machicado
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes employment in Bolivian registered manufacturing firms during 1988 to 2007, establishing its relationship with labor regulation. Estimating job flows, we find that firms with high temporary worker rates (less labor regulation costs) are those with both higher job reallocation rates and higher net employment growth, and only they contributed to employment growth during the country economic downturn, 1998-1999. In addition, estimating demand functions, we find the following effects of recent changes in labor norms: i) the compulsory basic salary rise in 2006-2009 entailed costs in terms of job losses, 5.6 percent for production workers and 4.8 percent for non-production workers; iii) the major labor costs derived from the new pension law, enacted in 2010, decreased employment demand around 1 percent; and, iv) labor protection policies decreased production workers demand.
Topic:
History, Labor Issues, Employment, Regulation, Business, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

10408. Fighting software piracy: which governance tools matter in Africa?

Author:
Antonio Rodríguez Andrés and Simplice A. Asongu
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This article integrates previously missing components of government quality into the governancepiracy nexus in exploring governance mechanisms by which global obligations for the treatment of IPRs are effectively transmitted from international to the national level in the battle against piracy. It assesses the best governance tools in the fight against piracy and upholding of Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs). The instrumentality of IPR laws (treaties) in tackling piracy through good governance mechanisms is also examined. Findings demonstrate that: (1) while all governance tools under consideration significantly decrease the incidence of piracy, corruptioncontrol is the most effective weapon; (2) but for voice and accountability, political stability and democracy, IPR laws (treaties) are instrumental in tackling piracy through government quality dynamics of rule of law, regulation quality, government effectiveness, corruption-control, and press freedom. Hence, the need for a policy approach most conducive to expanding development is to implement an integrated system of both IPRs and corollary good governance policies. Moreover, our findings support the relevance of good governance measures in developing countries wishing to complement their emerging IPR regimes.
Topic:
Intellectual Property/Copyright, Governance, Piracy, and Software
Political Geography:
Africa

10409. Emerging from Crisis: the Mediterranean Neighborhood

Author:
Leonor Coutinho
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"The financial crisis engulfed the entire world economy, but the impact was uneven across many regions and countries. Due to a lower degree of financial integration, many developing countries seem to have been far less affected. This apparent resilience has been observed among several of the EU's Mediterranean (MED) neighborhood countries. However, the region's underdeveloped financial markets may yet prove to be a long-term economic curse."
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Financial Crisis, European Union, Macroeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

10410. Fiscal Consolidation in the EU's New Member States

Author:
Daniel Daianu
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"The global financial crisis has triggered exceptional responses in the Euro zone and the U.S. A similar policy thrust should apply to the use of EU funds in the New Member States (NMS) of Central and Eastern Europe. The stakes are too high for vacillating. The bottom line is this: more capital has to flow into NMSs in order to fund the production of capital goods during a time when national budgets are extremely strained. This period may last for years, but inaction may lead to future political and economic instability in the region."
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Reform, European Union, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe

10411. Inflation Rather Than Austerity - Hungary's Economic Strategy

Author:
Peter Mihalyi
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"Since 1968, subsequent Hungarian governments have been less resilient to moderate inflation than others in the region. After the 1989-1990 market transition, inflation targeting became an even more important short-term policy tool. Since hyper-inflation was not allowed to gain momentum, there was no need to resort to fully-fledged currency reform. Instead, Hungarian governments have been ready to accept extra-inflation as an unavoidable price for reducing the fiscal deficit, choosing against Maastricht inflation targeting and economic coordination with Brussels."
Topic:
Reform, Macroeconomics, and Currency
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

10412. European Debt Crisis: What Is The Way Out

Author:
Charles Wyplosz
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"The current European debt crisis is just bringing to the fore well-defined cracks in the Eurozone’s construction. Fiscal discipline was left in the careless hands of national governments, banking regulation and supervision was delegated to national authorities more interested in promoting national champions than in completing the Single Market. Moreover, crisis management was masterminded not by the Commission but by national governments. This leaves panicked policymakers with the firm view that economics is largely useless and that any policy can be pursued if it makes good political sense."
Topic:
Debt, Globalization, Markets, Macroeconomics, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

10413. The Battle Over Private Pensions

Author:
Luca Barbone
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"Funded, compulsory pension funds are under attack in Europe and beyond. But are recent policy actions likely to improve the lot of future pensioners, or will they turn out to be short-term politically-motivated fixes that ultimately make life harder?"
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Social Policy, and Pension
Political Geography:
Europe

10414. Will IMF Intervention Help Belarus Solve Its Old Problems?

Author:
Alexander Chubrik
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
On May 31, 2011 the Government and National Bank of Belarus (NBB) announced that they would ask for a new stand-by loan from the IMF. The requests for external assistance followed several unsuccessful government attempts to overcome the serious macroeconomic crisis that has been developing in the country since the beginning of 2010. A key question arises, can external loans help Belarus to overcome its current crisis?
Topic:
Reform, Finance, Institutions, Macroeconomics, and IMF
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Belarus

10415. Egypt: Political Transition vs. Economic Challenges?

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"The revolutionary events of January and February 2011 opened the door for democratic transition in Egypt, but the road to a stable and sustainable democracy will be long and full of challenges. However, the macroeconomic environment post-revolution has become increasingly worrying as a result of past fiscal and monetary imbalances, revolution-induced shocks and unstable politics. This inability to address pressing economic challenges may hurt the nascent and fragile Egyptian democracy."
Topic:
Reform, Economy, Institutions, Macroeconomics, and Political System
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt

10416. The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Public Health Expenditures in the Economies of the Former Soviet Union

Author:
Roman Mogilevsky
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The financial crisis strongly affected the countries of the former Soviet Union1 (FSU) in 2008-2009. All of the countries experienced either a recession or a considerable slowdown in growth. The crisis also adversely affected government budget revenues, so governments had to adjust their expenditures to the falling revenues. Under such conditions, public expenditures on health were at risk of being cut. This brief explores whether or not this actually happened and why or why not.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Economy, Public Health, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

10417. Re-Establishment and Reform of the Justice System in Kosovo (1999-2011)

Author:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
While the research describe the development of justice system in the pre-independence period, the research team paid particular attention for the post-independence justice system focusing on the legal mandate of EULEX and problems in the North. Nevertheless, having in mind the complex sector and the diverse mechanisms, it was not the intention of the researchers to deepen the analysis in some specific areas of justice but rather to provide a broader overview. In fact, this research is expected to serve as the basis for upcoming research papers of KCSS aiming to address more specifically the important aspects in the broader field of rule of law.The paper shall serve as reliable source for the students, researchers and the policy makers willing to have a general picture on the developments in this sector. The original version is in English language and translated into Albanian Language.
Topic:
Security, Reform, Rule of Law, and Justice
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

10418. Lawful Interception of Telecommunications in Kosovo: Security Implications

Author:
Shpend Kursani
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
Building upon the current multitude security actor environment and legislative set-up, this paper assesses the interception of telecommunications in Kosovo as a sensitive, yet very effective measure of investigation. It elaborates in detail the current problems pertaining to interception of telecommunications which include the legislative gaps, the overlap created by poorly defined authority over the execution of orders of interception of telecommunications and the lack of cooperation not only between the domestic and international security institutions present in Kosovo but within the domestic security institutions as well. The analysis is not limited to the security institutions per se; the paper further extends on to the procedures and cooperation that exist between the security institutions and the telecommunications operators as well as their capabilities and infrastructural set-up which are important in preventing misuse of private data throughout the process of lawful interception of telecommunications. Based on the policy objectives that this paper draws, policy recommendations are provided which in general and among other things include the enhancement of the current legislation, the establishment of a central system that would boost cooperation between all the security actors, the introduction of new and advancement of current inspection and monitoring mechanisms. The implementation of the recommendations would ensure an effective lawful interception of telecommunications on the one hand and protection of privacy as a fundamental human right on the other hand.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, Privacy, Institutions, and Telecommunications
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

10419. Fearing a 'Shiite Octopus'. Sunni – Shi'a relations and the implications for Belgium and Europe

Author:
Jelle Puelings
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
During the last five years, and more specifically since the US invasion of Irak, different Sunni policy makers and religious actors have ventilated their concern for what they see as the rise of Shiite Islam. Although the condemnation of Shiism by more rigorous currents such as Wahhabism is hardly new, recently different governments in the Middle East have taken concrete measures against Shiite actors. The same 'Cold War scenario' the region witnessed immediately after the Iranian Revolution seems to appear again, making Arab Sunni voices reverberate up to Western policy makers, who start to worry themselves about the role of Iran and its allies. In this paper we will try to give an evaluation of this alleged shift in the Sunni-Shi`a power balance, and point out the possible consequences for Belgium and the EU emanating from this controversy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, Bilateral Relations, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and Belgium

10420. Polyphonic Country: A Peace Zone in Georgia and South Caucasus

Author:
Irakli Zurab Kakabadze
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
Abstract:
Since the breakup of the Soviet Union the South Caucasus region has been plagued with ethnic conflicts—some of them remnants from Soviet times. Armenia and Azerbaijan are in- volved in a lengthy confrontation over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, and Georgia struggles with Russia over the two separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These conflicts have caused multiple military confrontations between different parties and are still unresolved even today. In June 1997 Johan Galtung, founder of Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO), vis- ited three South Caucasian countries in his tour to promote the “Transcend Method” of conflict transformation and to conduct collaborative workshops with the students of Tbilisi State Univer- sity, Georgia; Yerevan State University, Armenia; and Khazar University, Azerbaijan. He held a large meeting with civil society representatives at the Caucasian Institute for Peace and Demo- cratic Development (CIPDD) in Tbilisi. It was at that roundtable discussion, chaired by CIPDD director Dr. Ghia Nodia, that Galtung proposed creating a Peace Zone and a new international airport at the border area between Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia—namely at the Red Bridge area, one of the centers for regional trade for the last fifty years of the 20th century. Dr. Galtung has suggested that creating a Peace Zone in the South Caucasus was the only viable alternative to the continuous state of war and ethnic conflict. Three years later, Ambassador John W. McDonald, Chairman and CEO of the Institute for Multi Track Diplomacy, attended a conference in Tbilisi, Georgia organized by the Georgia- America Business Development Council. At the conference, Ambassador McDonald also sug- gested creating a Peace Zone in Georgia, around the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, as a way of protecting Western energy interests through peace-building and economic development. Throughout the following nine years Ambassador McDonald continued to work with different Georgian governments on the formation of Peace Zones in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In 2003 the Vice-Speaker of the Georgian Parliament, Vakhtang Rcheulishvili, came to Washington, DC to support the idea of Peace Zones in conflict regions. He met various U.S. officials like Senator Tom Harkin, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, and Matthew Bryza of the National Security Coun- cil at the White House. In 2004 the new Prime Minister of Georgia, Zurab Zhvania, endorsed Ambassador McDonald’s plan for Peace Zones in conflict regions. State Minister Bendukidze and former Minister of Conflict Resolution Khaindrava were also very much supportive of this plan. After the Rose Revolution, when nonviolent protests brought down the corrupt government of Eduard Shevardnadze in November 2003, the idea of Peace Zones became a grassroots con- cept popular with certain segments of civil society and university students in Georgia. Proposals for establishing Peace Zones faced a setback when the militaristic policies of Georgian, Russian, and separatist governments led to renewed violence, and in August 2008, a full war between different parties in South Ossetia. They still remain however, one of the most promising means of breaking the cycle of violence in the South Caucasus. The purpose of this paper is to present the case for a Peace Zone in Georgia.
Topic:
Civil Society, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

10421. Lessons from the Cheonan Incident and South Korea’s Response

Author:
EAI Security Net
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Since the tragic sinking of the ROK Navy corvette, the Cheonan, on March 26 2010, there has been an unprecedented level of unconfirmed suspicion, speculation, and criticism over the incident. Not only has this focused on the cause of the sinking but also on the Lee Myung-bak administration’s handling of the incident and its response in the immediate aftermath. The major challenge ahead is to build a domestic consensus on how to perceive and characterize the Cheonan incident and muster global support to punish North Korea. Pyongyang’s sinking of the South Korean warship has raised fundamental questions in the five most critical areas of the state; the military, diplomacy, economy, politics, and intelligence. Rather than narrowly focusing on one single area within which to muster a response, the Lee administration needs to take a comprehensive approach across all five areas and prevent further provocations from threatening peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, Military Strategy, Sanctions, and Peace
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

10422. Kim Jong-il’s Visit to China and Its Implications

Author:
Dong Ryul Lee
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The North Korean leader Kim Jong-il embarked on a secretive trip to China on May 3, 2010. The five day visit was his first to China in four years and his fifth so far. Kim’s recent visit to China does not seem to be that much different from previous summit meetings between North Korea and China. Although North Korea’s nuclear test in 2009 did not provoke a longer than normal suspension in bilateral exchanges, in essence, progress has been made since the resumption of bilateral diplomatic visits in 2000. The key agenda of the recent summit has been consistent with the principle in which China provides economic assistance in exchange for North Korea’s return to the Six-Party Talks. This principle has been the backbone of Beijing’s North Korea policy, which has been in place since the outbreak of the second nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula in 2003. Furthermore, this secretive trip to China looks very similar to Kim Jong-il’s last four visits to China, where he toured the industrial regions that have benefited from China’s economic reform and opening. There has been a lot of controversy and diverse assumptions on the reason for Kim’s visit to China. This is particularly attributable to the complicated and delicate nature of inter-Korean relations even though this China-DPRK summit shares many similarities with those of the past. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the political and security environment of the Korean Peninsula in which Kim Jong-il decided to make such a critical strategic decision to travel to China. The visit and the resulting bilateral summit were a successful conclusion to the longest gap in China-DPRK relations since the revival of bilateral ties at the beginning of 2000. Similarly, this summit carries special meaning considering the current deadlock of the Six-Party Talks that has gone on for the past eighteen months. What is more significant is the fact that Kim Jong-il’s trip immediately followed South Korean President Lee Myung-bak’s official visit to China on April 30, amid the escalating tensions in inter-Korean relations over the North Korean torpedo attack on the Cheonan. Moreover, North Korea is facing dire domestic circumstances primarily caused by the health problems of Kim Jong-il, the succession issue, instability following the disastrous currency reform of late 2009, and its failing economy struggling under United Nations sanctions. The fact that the China-DPRK summit took place in such a complex environment indicates that a wide range of current issues were involved and it would have a greater impact for stability on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s actions immediately following the bilateral summit with China should be closely examined as it could help South Korea predict how the Cheonan incident will develop. There were no official reports or any specific details of the conversation available for the public due to the opaque nature of the talk. Therefore, it is necessary to scrutinize as well as analyze any subtle moves by both countries that might reflect any possible major agreements between the two sides. There are three major questions that need to be answered when evaluating this recent summit in China. First, what is the significance of the summit regarding China-DPRK relations and Beijing’s policy toward North Korea? Second, did North Korea and China agree on the North’s return to the Six-Party Talks in exchange for Chinese support for its regime? If so, what is the prospect for the resumption of the Six-Party Talks? Third, what impact will this summit have on ROK-China relations in light of the fact that the summit meeting took place while the South Korean-led international investigation into the cause of the Cheonan sinking was in progress?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and North Korea

10423. How Can an Inter-Korean Summit Contribute to the Denuclearization of North Korea?

Author:
Sung Bae Kim
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Only a few months ago, a third inter-Korean summit and the resumption of the Six-Party Talks both seemed likely. With contacts for an inter-Korean summit under way since last year and the Chinese proposals for the Six-Party Talks having been warmly accepted by the United States and North Korea, the prospects were positive. The sinking of the ROK Navy corvette Cheonan on March 26, 2010, however, destroyed this optimism. A two-month multinational investigation, led by South Korea, uncovered clear evidence of North Korea’s involvement, and the South Korean government imposed strong and comprehensive sanctions against the North on May 24. The punishments included the suspension of inter-Korean trade, the resumption of psychological warfare operations, and strengthening naval exercises in the Yellow Sea. In response, North Korea announced that it would sever all inter-Korean relations and threatened war with the South. The whole situation on the Korean Peninsula has been deteriorating day by day, worsening already high tensions so that even military clashes seem potentially possible. The prospects for the Six-Party Talks are now also very negative. The Cheonan incident has proved to be a black hole absorbing all other critical issues. Kim Jong-il 's visit to China in May 2010 seemed to signal that the Six-Party Talks might be resumed, but this possibility could not appease Seoul’s fury over the sinking of the Cheonan. Diplomatic efforts for the resumption of the talks have been replaced with new moves to initiate additional sanctions against North Korea. Of course, the North Korean nuclear crisis, which is after all an urgent problem with both regional and global consequences, cannot be forever tied to the Cheonan incident. After a cooling-off period, diplomatic mediations to resume the Six-Party Talks can be restarted by China. But the concern at this time is that North Korea, in light of the Cheonan incident, might insist on excluding South Korea from the talks. Given the current situation, is there any possibility for an inter-Korean summit? A summit might, paradoxically, be the only means of exit from the crisis. Interestingly, in 1993, when the first North Korean nuclear crisis had broken out and military tensions were extremely high, a proposal for an inter-Korean summit was accepted. The meeting was only canceled because of Kim Il-sung's sudden death on July 8, 1994. Today, for inter-Korean relations to resume, a whole new framework is needed, given that all existing North-South agreements have been nullified. Such a rebuilt relationship can only be achieved through a third inter-Korean summit. Moreover, progress on the North Korean nuclear issue is impossible until the current state of North-South relations is improved. Were the Six-Party Talks to resume that occurs, they would end up at best as a diplomatic battle between the two Koreas. In the end, the only solution is an inter-Korean summit, which could achieve a breakthrough both in relations between North and South and on the nuclear issue at the same time.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Conference, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

10424. Coping with the North Korean Survival Game: The Cheonan Incident and Its Aftermath

Author:
Seong-Ho Sheen
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
While on a routine patrol along the Northern Limit Line (NLL), a South Korean Navy corvette, Cheonan was hit by an external explosion and rapidly sunk at 9:22pm on March 26, 2010. Of the one hundred and four South Korean crew members on board, forty six were found dead or remain missing (Cha 2010). After weeks of a scientific investigation supported by an international team of twenty four American, British, Australian, and Swedish experts, the South Korean government announced on May 20, that the ship was sunk by a torpedo launched from a North Korean midget submarine. The South Korean government and the public are now weighing the various measures in how to respond to this major North Korean provocation. Experts, on the other hand, are trying to understand what might have been the cause of such a bold aggression by the North Korean regime. While some have suggested a combination of various reasons for the alleged attack, a prominent North Korean insider has argued that the Cheonan incident may have to do with the North Korean leadership succession issue. Cho Myung-chul, a former professor at Kim Il-sung University, has suggested that the Cheonan incident was the work of the emerging leadership surrounding the young and unknown Kim Jong-eun, the son of Kim Jong-il and possible future successor. The motivation then would be for Kim Jong-eun and his supporters to prove themselves to Kim Jong-il and North Korean people. Leadership succession in a dictatorship tends to create a lot of uncertainty, anxiety, and confusion for its governance and the state apparatus. There will be competition and rivalry among different groups and factions for survival and to take a lead in the power transition. In that process, hard liners tend to command a stronger voice. Given the mounting pressures of a deteriorating economic situation and diplomatic isolation since the famine of 1995-98, sinking a South Korean warship could score an important political victory domestically, inducing the North Korean people to be proud of its regime and new leadership. At the same time, it could teach a lesson to the Lee Myung-bak government which has insisted on linking the nuclear issue with North-South exchanges. Indeed, North Korea issued a series of warnings to South Korea after criticizing the Lee administration for refusing to restart the Mount Kumkang Tours that had been canceled after a South Korean tourist had been shot by a North Korean guard on July 11, 2008. Pyongyang was further upset by alleged contingency planning for a sudden collapse of the regime and the hosting of military exercises with the United States. In particular, just a couple of weeks before the Cheonan incident, the Korean People’s Army issued a statement that it would no longer remain bound by the Korean War Armistice or the 1992 North-South Non-Aggression Agreement, therefore it “will legitimately exercise their force for self defense, unhindered, just as they had determined to do.” The worry now is that such provocations may eventually be aimed at the Obama administration which has hardened its position toward North Korea since the second nuclear test on May 25, 2009. While not completely excluding the possibility for bilateral dialogue, the United States has insisted that Pyongyang must return to the multilateral Six-Party Talks by implementing its obligations under previous agreements. North Korean demands for nuclear arms control and a peace treaty in exchange for denuclearization has only strengthened Washington’s deep mistrust of Pyongyang’s true intentions. Considering that the Obama administration has adopted a policy of wait and see, or what it calls “strategic patience,” the North Korean leadership might have concluded that there is not much to gain from making a deal with Washington for now. Furthermore, President Obama’s designation of North Korea along with Iran as an outlier in his drive for a “World Without Nuclear Weapons” and a possible target of U.S. nuclear weapons in the recently published 2010 Nuclear Posture Review can only have made Pyongyang’s conviction even more pessimistic. The problem is that the sinking of the Cheonan may not be an isolated incident. North Korea may become more desperate and brazen as they face increasingly harsher measures from South Korea and the international community, particularly the United States. The race for completing succession by 2012 may further strengthen the voice of hardliners who wish to heighten tensions with South Korea and the United States. More importantly, the Cheonan incident could be a sign of increasing instability in North Korea. The regime there faces the critical question of Kim Jong-il’s health and the issue of succession amidst a deepening economic crisis and international isolation. The Cheonan incident not only presents the immediate challenge of crisis management but also poses a medium to long-term question about the regime’s future.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict, Missile Defense, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

10425. From “Primordial” to “Pragmatic” Identity: A Search for Regional Identity in East Asia

Author:
Jun-Seok Kim
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In 2009, two interesting proposals for community building in East Asia were put forward: Kevin Rudd, then serving as Australia’s prime minister, proposed the creation of an Asia Pacific Community (APC) and then-Japanese prime minister Yukio Hatoyama proposed an East Asian Community (EAC). Claiming that Australia should get more deeply involved in Asia, Rudd described his vision of what an APC should look like. Of the most importance, it should be all-embracing. All the major powers in the Asia-Pacific region should take part, including the United States, Australia, Japan, China, South Korea, India, and Indonesia. The APC should also focus on both security and economic issues. In the meantime, Hatoyama, in a New York Times op-ed, came up with the idea of an East Asian Community as the cornerstone of his administration’s Asia policy. While the idea of the EAC was not totally fleshed out, he indicated that the group would include China, Japan, and South Korea as its core members. Hatoyama did not make it clear whether the United States would be invited, although he made no secret of his perception that the era of U.S.-led unilateralism and globalism was coming to an end. In this new period of growing multipolarity, he seemed to believe, it was imperative for Japan to reconceptualize East Asia, the world’s fastest-growing region which now accounts for one quarter of the total GDP of the world, as its own “basic sphere of being.” Prime Minister Hatoyama tried his best not to give the impression that he favored East Asia over the United States (or over the West as a whole). But, it seemed quite obvious that he wanted to see Japan more consciously autonomous from the United States than had been the case under the prolonged rule of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) governments. What prompted Rudd of Australia and Hatoyama of Japan to propose the creation of Asia Pacific and East Asian communities upon taking office? A probable cause can be found in the shift in relative power, especially between China, Japan, and the United States, that has long been in progress over the last decade. Both Rudd and Hatoyama were aware of this change. Rudd, for instance, explained that global economic and strategic weight was now shifting to Asia. Hatoyama has also conceded that China would surpass Japan in economic size “in the not-too-distant-future.” One might suspect, therefore, that their initiatives were nothing more than temporary expedients designed to cope with the recently changed international environment. That might be the case—or not. But whatever the two leaders’ underlying intent, their initiatives no doubt constituted significant contributions to a series of efforts to bring about community-type regional organizations in East Asia. From 1989 on, when APEC was first created, and especially in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98, a succession of regional organizations came into being in East Asia, with the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in 1993, ASEAN+3 in 1997, and the East Asian Summit (EAS) in 2005 being the most representative. Since the first meeting of the EAS was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in 2005, in particular, interest in the possibility of building an East Asian Community has become widespread. Although controversies over the proper geographical scope of such a community remain far from settled, with some countries favoring extensive, elastic membership and others favoring a limited, restrictive one, community-building in East Asia is now looked upon as a goal that is worthy of being pursued for its own sake. Australia’s and Japan’s initiatives, probably spurred by geostrategic considerations and not immediately realizable, will surely strengthen the case for an East Asian Community. At the very least, two initiatives have demonstrated the continued interest in an East Asian Community among politicians and decision-makers of East Asian countries.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Community, and Identity
Political Geography:
Japan, China, East Asia, Asia, and South Korea

10426. The Comfort Women Case Reconsidered: Making Citizens Responsible for Historical Injustices

Author:
Jun-Hyeok Kwak
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The year 2010 marks the eighteenth anniversary of the first Wednesday Demonstration in Seoul. Over nine hundred times, former “comfort women” and other Korean citizens have assembled in front of the Japanese Embassy in Seoul to demand a sincere and official apology from the Japanese government. The door of the embassy, however, has remained firmly closed to the voices of the surviving victims and the citizen-led protests. The Korean government similarly disregards the protesters’ demands, citing the importance of maintaining a peaceful diplomatic relationship with Japan. A phrase used on the website of the Korean Council for the Women Drafted for Military Sexual Slavery by Japan (Korean Council hereafter) succinctly expresses the feelings of the survivors: “Our tears have not dried up yet.” In this respect, the idea that responsibility for historical injustices committed by a previous generation can be inherited by the next generation seems to apply to the “comfort women” case. First of all, with the passage of time, fewer and fewer perpetrators and victims are still alive. Without the theoretical basis of responsibility being passed down to the next generation, historical injustices like those experienced by “comfort women” will be buried and forgotten with the wounds of the victims left unhealed. Second, the principle of inherited responsibility is expected to guarantee that no similar inhumane deeds will ever be committed again. By recognizing the gravity of the injustices perpetrated in the past and the difficulty of healing the wounds, we can share the idea that we must try to do our best not to become either perpetrators or victims of the same kinds of crimes. However, the “comfort women” issue, in the context of inherited responsibility, remains stuck in the middle of contentions that have no viable solution. The Japanese government, which in this situation is the agent responsible for the wartime atrocities, tends either to deny the rationale for any collective responsibility or to limit the extent of such responsibility in terms of compensatory measures, either financial or nonfinancial. In contrast, South Korean victims and protesters, who have demanded from Japan an official apology and the acknowledgment of historical wrongdoings, have been too unilateral or nationalistic to shape a nonethnocentric deliberation for “thick” reconciliation with Japan. On the basis of these observations, analyzing the “comfort women” case in the context of inherited responsibility, I will suggest the concept of civic responsibility with reciprocal nondomination as a viable solution for the “comfort women” case in Northeast Asia. First, reviewing the theories of inherited responsibility, I argue that these are not sufficiently applicable to the “comfort women” issue. Two considerations are proposed in accordance with the “agent” bearing inherited responsibility and the “scope” of its recompense. Second, I propose reciprocal nondomination as a regulative principle for making citizens responsible for historical injustices in Northeast Asia. Here, reciprocal nondomination is presented as a future-centered regulatory principle that encourages both victims and wrongdoers to take a nonethnocentric deliberative stance.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Sexual Violence, Injustice, and Victims
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10427. Debunking Chinese Thinking on a Peace Agreement and Peace Regime for the Korean Peninsula

Author:
Jaewoo Choo
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
At least for the time being, China’s foreign policy goals are focused on the preservation of the status quo in its peripheries, including the Korean Peninsula. China sees its long absence of war or military conflict as evidence of the well-preserved peace and stability of its security environment. Conversely, it conceives that this status quo has been conducive to achieving its foremost national goal, economic modernization. It continues to strive to improve its security environment within the equilibrium. There seems to be one growing exception, however, in the case of the Korean Peninsula, however. China’s support for the replacement of the Korean War Armistice with a peace agreement and a peace regime is in stark contrast to its status quo policy. Given China’s long advocacy as a peace-loving nation, it seems only logical that putting an end to Korea’s current technically-at-war status would make sense. Beijing has its own reasoning and logic behind its supportive call for a new peace arrangement on the peninsula. A confrontational international structure around the peninsula, for instance, can only be overcome by a peace agreement, a precondition necessitated by the Armistice. Hence, a peace agreement before normalization of this structure is perceived to be path-dependent. However, serious challenges arise if a call for a peace agreement and regime is put forth without much thinking regarding the strategic implications. Chinese scholars and experts tend to overlook this factor in their appraisal. On the surface, theirs is a just and righteous call that a peace agreement must replace the Armistice. It is critical to the installment of “perpetual peace” on the peninsula. It is also logical that such peace can be guaranteed by forging a peace regime, an assurance mechanism that will supplement the “peace” endowed by the agreement. If Chinese claims are correct, why are they not embraced by others? There must be something wrong in what the Chinese widely believe. Although their analysis of the imperatives for a peace agreement and regime is undeniable, as we shall see, their call for a peace agreement and regime still remains contradictory to the status quo orientation of their mother country’s foreign policy. Moreover, their work seems to lack insight regarding the strategic and structural implications of the full implementation of such a peace arrangement. Furthermore, Chinese pundits must define the meaning of a new peace in a more articulated way in the context of a new regional order to effectively defend their nation’s support for a peace agreement and regime.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Political stability, and Peace
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

10428. On the Rocks: Korea and Japan Divided over the Dokdo Issue

Author:
D. Bong Youngshik
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
No serious observer of postwar relations between South Korea and Japan doubts that there is a bilateral issue between the two nations that is more persistent and volatile than their feud over the sovereign status of the two minuscule islets of Dokdo. This commentary examines the history of disputes over Dokdo, and attempts to argue that the starting point for a solution lies in the pragmatic and prudent approach, not in assertive diplomacy based on nationalistic sentiments. Since the end of World War II, Dokdo has been under the effective administrative control of the South Korean government. The Japanese government has protested at various official levels since then, arguing that the islets, which it calls Takeshima, belong to Japan in accordance with historical evidence and international law. The diplomatic feud over the territory did not flare up during the Cold War, because both countries involved in the controversy made security cooperation against the communist threat in Northeast Asia their top priority. It was only after concerns over the external regional security environment were lifted with the end of the Cold War that Japan began to fortify its claims to Dokdo in a far more assertive and diversified manner. South Korea responded to this change by making periodic departures from its traditional line of defense of “quiet diplomacy”—that is, taking the view that because its sovereignty over the islets is indisputable and its control over them remains complete, South Korea has no strategic interests in aggressively and emotionally reacting to Japan’s escalatory territorial policy. To do so would only reinforce Japan’s claim that there does exist an unresolved territorial issue between the two countries and the sovereign status of Dokdo is undetermined, when in fact South Korea’s position is the opposite.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and South Korea

10429. A Path Never Taken: The Options for Kim Jong-un and the Future of the Korean Peninsula

Author:
EAI Security Net
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Since Kim Jong-il’s health deteriorated in the summer of 2008, the question of his succession has drawn attention from all over the world. Finally, on September 28 2010, Kim Jong-un, Kim Jong-il’s third son, rapidly emerged with his guardianship group made up of the close personnel of the “dear leader” at the Third Meeting of the Workers Party of Korea (WPK) Representatives. The future direction of the succession process has generated tremendous interest from all over the world, because it is not only related to internal power transition in North Korea but also directly linked with the future of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. The political and diplomatic decisions of Kim Jong-il’s successor will crucially affect his own future, as well that of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis, Inter-Korean relations, and the international order of Northeast Asia. Kim Jong-un was promoted to the rank of daechang, the equivalent of a four-star general, and appointed vice chairman of the Party’s Central Military Commission, in essence holding the de facto post of second-in-command. He was named right after the four members of the politburo standing committee by North Korea's official news agency, Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), and his picture was revealed to the public for the first time. This formulated that he became the successor to his father. All in all, he was named as general on the 27th, appointed vice chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission on the 28th, and his picture released on the 29th, which shows precisely the elaborated staging and even hastiness on the part of the North Korean regime. On October 10, Kim Jong-il effectively declared his heir apparent at home and abroad when he attended a massive military parade with Kim Jong-un, commemorating the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Workers Party of Korea. This remarkable event was broadcasted live in North Korea with even foreign correspondents invited to attend. The succession process was a lot faster than expected, particularly when compared to Kim Jong-il, whose succession process only got off the ground six years after he was designated a member of the Politburo in 1974. It is premature to say which direction Kim Jong-un will go, but it cannot but be seen that his emergence puts more emphasis on ‘continuation’ rather than ‘severance’ or ‘transformation’ from the existing songun or military-first politics. Above all, it is noteworthy that Kim Jong-un took the position of vice chairman of the Party's Central Military Commission rather than positions within its Politburo or Secretariat. This is groundwork to make Kim Jong-un become the “royal” successor of the military-first politics system. Like his father, he will likely exercise the power to interpret the ruling ideology as the sole successor to the “bloodline of Mount Baekdu.” Holding onto the banner of military-first politics, Kim Jong-un will establish it as a “revolutionary” tradition that will form the basis of his succession. Secondly, it is also noticeable that Kim Jong-un’s guardianship group is filled with his father’s people. They were appointed to be heavyweights in the Party and military during the Meeting of Party Representatives. Kim Jong-il’s sister Kim Kyong-hui became a member of the Politburo, her husband Jang Song Thaek became an alternate member of the Politburo, member of the Central Military Commission, and a department director of the Party’s Central Committee, while Vice-Marshal Ri Yong Ho became a Standing Member of the Politburo and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. It is hard to find anyone that could be considered as Kim Jong-un’s people, which is to be understood considering his age and inexperience. There is a dilemma for Kim Jong-un in that he cannot completely rely on the military-first politics. Currently, Kim has not even been officially designated as successor; that will only come when he assumes position as a Standing Member of the Politburo. Such a move can only be possible if he accumulates considerable achievements as he has nothing to his name so far. Presumably, this process needs to be completed before the 7th Party Congress in 2012, leaving Kim Jong-un with little time. Establishing North Korea as an ‘economically strong power,’ one of the three pillars of gangseongdaeguk or strong and prosperous country is something that has yet to be achieved. Pyongyang has already claimed to have achieved the other two pillars of a strong political power and a strong military power. However, as long as the military-first politics is sustained, it is almost impossible for North Korea to pursue the path to economic recovery by itself.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Leadership, Succession, and Transition
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

10430. The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq

Author:
Radha Iyengar, Luke N. Condra, Joseph Felter, and Jacob N. Shapiro
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
A central question in intrastate conflicts is how insurgents are able to mobilize supporters to participate in violent and risky activities. A common explanation is that violence committed by counterinsurgent forces mobilizes certain segments of the population through a range of mechanisms. We study the effects of civilian casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan to quantify the effect of such casualties on subsequent insurgent violence. By comparing uniquely detailed micro-data along temporal, spatial, and gender dimensions we can distinguish short-run 'information' and 'capacity' effects from the longer run 'propaganda' and 'revenge' effects. In Afghanistan we find strong evidence that local exposure to civilian casualties caused by international forces leads to increased insurgent violence over the long-run, what we term the 'revenge' effect. Matching districts with similar past trends in violence shows that counterinsurgent-generated civilian casualties from a typical incident are responsible for 1 additional violent incident in an average sized district in the following 6 weeks and lead to increased violence over the next 6 months. There is no evidence that out-of-area events—errant air strikes for example—lead to increased violence, nor is there evidence of short run effects, thus ruling out the propaganda, information, and capacity mechanisms. Critically, we find no evidence of a similar reaction to civilian casualties in Iraq, suggesting the constraints on insurgent production of violence may be quite conflict-specific. Our results imply that minimizing harm to civilians may indeed help counterinsurgent forces in Afghanistan to reduce insurgent recruitment.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, Conflict, Violence, War on Terror, Civilians, and Casualties
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East

10431. Headscarf Ban and Discrimination

Author:
Dilek Cindoğlu
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The headscarf ban applied in institutions of higher education, in the public sector, and as this research has shown, in the private sector, reveals the perspectives of the state and its institutions and as well of the society on human, women’s and citizens’ rights. The restrictions and barriers to entry of women to study and work in institutions of higher education and public sector institutions, in place since the 1960s, rest on a mentality that views women’s choices to wear headscarves as an attack on the secular regime, instead of treating their choices as a manifestation of their freedom of religion and belief. Consequently, the practices that were initially violating freedom of belief gradually deteriorated to cause further violations of rights to education, to employment, to equal access to public life and of basic rights and liberties such as the right to equality. The headscarf ban in institutions of higher education has for many years been and remains to be a widely debated and contested issue. Though there is a wealth of analysis, dialogue, debate and research on the subject, it is largely restricted to whether the headscarf ban in universities is justified or not. The impact that the ban has had on headscarved women’s lives have, on the other hand, been absent in the debates and analyses on the headscarf ban. A question that has not been featured in research and public debates so far is despite the public sector ban on the headscarf what are the experiences of those headscarved women at work who were able to graduate from university, but did not abandon their choice to wear headscarf to practice their faith and without? In other words, what is the impact of the headscarf ban in the public sector on the professional lives of higher educated headscarved women? Does this ban, which applies to public sector institutions, also hinder or restrict professional headscarved women as they apply for or work in private sector jobs? What obstacles are there for professional headscarved women to entering job markets in Turkey and to advancing their careers? This report is a product of TESEV Democratization Program’s quest to answer these questions. It examines one of the greatest roadblocks on Turkey’s path to democratization, the headscarf ban, and the implications of the ban on public and private sector employment to document the myriad forms of discrimination and rights violations that headscarved women face immediately after they decide to become working professionals. Though some forms of workplace discrimination 6 that headscarved women face also affect non-headscarved professional women with similar socio-economic backgrounds, the headscarf is the primary source of the majority of discrimination faced by professional headscarved women. Again, this report shows that the ban on the public sector spilled over to the private sector. Cases of discrimination and rights violations that are believed to have diminished and to even have been reversed in favor of headscarved women during the two terms of the AK Party administration continue to be recorded, especially and more vehemently in the private sector.
Topic:
Democratization, Gender Issues, Religion, Women, Inequality, and Discrimination
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

10432. Fracture Lines: Will Canada's Water Be Protected in the Rush to Develop Gas?

Author:
Ben Parfitt
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto
Abstract:
On October 14, 2010, POWI released a discussion paper and held a conference on Fracture Lines: Will Canada’s Water Be Protected in the Rush to Develop Shale Gas? The conference and the discussion paper were the first major formal public discussion in Canada of the shale gas issue. As supplies of fossil fuel dwindle, oil and gas companies are increasingly looking to unconventional sources such as shale gas to supply energy needs. The Fracture Lines paper outlined the potential impacts of shale gas exploration and production on groundwater resources, and described the paucity of groundwater mapping and lack of effective regulatory oversight. With possible shale gas deposits in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick and a loud public outcry against shale gas drilling in Quebec, the conference attracted a wealth of attention. Because of its availability in both languages and its timeliness, the conference received extensive media coverage and over 500 logins to the webcast. In the wake of the conference, the research contained in the Fracture Lines report was determined to be a major factor in the decision to expand the terms of reference for a Parliamentary Committee studying offshore drilling issues in Canada. The Committee opted to include shale gas in its deliberations. The issue of how to protect groundwater resources from the impacts of shale gas exploration continues to be a burning issue, across Canada and around the world.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Oil, Water, and Gas
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

10433. Can the EU budget support climate policy in Central and Eastern Europe?

Author:
Anna Korppoo, Thomas Spencer, and Agata Hinc
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In October 2010 the Commission released the long-awaited review of the EU budget, setting out the parameters of the debate around the next financial perspective, 2014-2020. The Budget Re view outlined a rather conservative programme for reform of the Cohesion and Common Agricultural Policy, largely envisaging the preservation of existing objectives and instruments. However, policymakers have also called for a stronger integration of EU climate policy with EU fiscal policy, particularly with regard to the Central and Eastern European (CEE) Member States; the budget has also been proposed as a mechanism to compensate for the potential loss of surplus Assigned Amount Units under the Kyoto Protocol. Likewise, the 20/20/20 climate and energy targets were placed at the heart of the EU 2020 strategy. The question therefore arises: What role should the EU budget play in supporting climate policy in CEE Member States?
Topic:
Climate Change and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

10434. Combating Terrorism in Yemen Through the Committee for Religious Dialogue

Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Yemen's Committee for Religious Dialogue was established in September 2002. It was an innovative and timely step undertaken by the Yemeni Government towards terrorist rehabilitation. This report seeks to document the lessons learnt from the ICPVTR delegation's visit to Yemen from 17 to 21 July 2010. The visit sought to get an in-depth understanding of the rehabilitation efforts by the Religious Dialogue Committee that was founded by the Minister of Endowment and Guidance of Yemen, Judge Hamoud Al-Hitar. In addition, the visit also aimed at understanding the role of other Yemeni agencies in their efforts to combating terrorism.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

10435. The U.S. Senate and Iraq: Who Changed their Views, and Why?

Author:
Andrew Bennet and Andrew Loomis
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
Focusing on the evolving views of the 77 U.S. Senators who voted to authorize the use of force in Iraq in 2002, we seek to explain why some political leaders changed their views markedly from 2002 to 2008 and others did not. We argue that in view of the great preponderance of evidence that the initial premises of U.S. intervention in Iraq were not fulfilled, Bayesian updating cannot by itself explain the persistence of divergent views on Iraq. It is also puzzling that a half-dozen senators persisted in their support of Bush's position on Iraq even though this may have contributed to their electoral defeat. We use a combination of political and psychological variables, including ideology, party affiliation, safety of the senator's seat, military service, cognitive style, and presidential aspirations to explain why some senators changed their public positions on Iraq within a year, others did so by 2006, still others in 2007, and some changed very little in more than five years. We combine these variables into a typological theory and test it against a qualitative analysis of 20 senators' views on Iraq. We conclude that our model is relatively successful in predicting not only when senators' views changed but what rationales they gave for why their initial expectations were not borne out. We also note several senators who prove important anomalies for our model, including Senators Lieberman, who was the only Democrat who did not move toward opposing Bush's policies, and McCain, who thus far has not moved toward the political center on Iraq despite having effectively secured his party's nomination.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Arabia

10436. Juggling the New Triad--Energy, Environment and Security: A Case Study of the Canadian Oil Sands

Author:
Hendrik Spruyt
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
The desire to acquire reliable and cheap sources of energy has long been linked to security objectives. When the British fleet transferred from coal to oil, First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill saw to it that the British government acquired a controlling interest in the Anglo-Persian oil company (the forerunner of today's BP). In more recent years President Nixon argued for energy independence in the face of the Arab oil embargo and skyrocketing oil prices that increased twenty fold in less than a decade. And if the U.S. Department of Defense today were considered as an independent energy consumer similar to sovereign states it would outrank more than 100 countries, including such states as Sweden. Among the great powers, China in particular has linked geostrategic calculations with acquiring secure and affordable energy sources. Acquiring such sources is thus for most states a desirable objective which enhances a state's autonomy and security. Similarly, further development of such supplies is expected to correlate with enhanced security. Both objectives, however, stand in uneasy tension with new environmental concerns. Pending dramatic advances in renewable energy production, fossil fuels, such as oil and natural gas, remain key sources of energy. Indeed, in the United States 95% of the energy used in the transportation sector derives from oil. Consequently, the desire to become more energy independent or acquire reliable supplies of such energy will for the foreseeable future lead to the continued use and even further exploitation of fossil fuels. Yet, the consumption and production of fossil fuels has been one of the key sources of greenhouse gases.And if, environmental degradation in turn leads to conflict, as, for example, the work of Homer Dixon has suggested, then environmental concerns must also enter into the agenda that is usually reserved for traditional security calculations (Homer Dixon 1999).
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, Arabia, Sweden, and Persia

10437. Taming the Revisionist State: The Effects of Military Defeats on the War-Proneness of Germany vs. Iraq

Author:
Benjamin Miller and Moran Mandalbaum
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
Following the post - 2003 US intervention in Iraq, and with a potential US use of force against Iran, one key analytical question stands out, which has major policy implications: Does military defeat by the great powers have stabilizing or de - stabilizing effects on the aggressive behavior of revisionist states? Somewhat similarly to the pre - 2003 Iraq invasion debate, the great powers have a number of options for dealing with the potential Iranian nuclear threat: diplomatic engagement, deterrence, or resort to military power -- either to bring about a regime change, or to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities. Taking into account the possibility of resorting to force against Iran, an intriguing question emerges: what does IR theory lead us to expect -- and what does the historical record show -- with regard to the effects of military defeats on the war - propensity of revisionist states? In other words, why do some militarily defeated states become war - like, while others peaceful?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Germany

10438. Status, Identity, and Rising Powers

Author:
Deborah Welch Larson and Alexei Shevchenko
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
In the current era, the most striking development is the appearance of rising powers. These include Brazil, Russia, India, and China but also South Africa, Mexico, and South Korea. No longer can a small group of advanced states, the Group of Seven (G-7), manage the world economy. The G-7 has for all practical purposes been replaced by the G-20, which includes China, India, South Korea, Indonesia, and Australia. The emerging powers in Asia account for a growing share of the world's global domestic product. These powers are spending more on their military—India already has an aircraft carrier and plans to procure two more. China's growing navy is a major concern to the United States military.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, India, South Korea, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico

10439. Social Inclusion in Mumbai: Economics Matters Too

Author:
Robert M. Buckley
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper questions the accuracy and validity of the criticisms made by Ananya Roy on the approach of a Mumbai based NGO, the Society to Promote Area Resource Centers (SPARC) and its partner grassroots federations in Mumbai. This includes the suggestion that the focus on sanitation rather than on land tenure is an appeal to middle-class values about cleanliness and that the support for relocating those who lived right next to the railway tracks made them agents of the state. But SPARC's support for community toilets was in response to what grassroots organizations asked for and these also have high social returns. SPARC's support for resettlement for those living along the railway tracks was for those who were going to be moved and this support allowed those who were to be resettled to have far more influence on where, when and how the resettlement took place. Here too, the social returns from faster, safer trains meant costs saved that were more than the costs of providing good quality accommodation for those who had to move.
Topic:
Development and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
India, Asia, and Mumbai

10440. The United States Military as an Agent of Development: Counterinsurgency Doctrine and Development Assistance

Author:
Carol Messineo
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
The United States' national security objectives emphasize preventing terrorism through economic and social development in fragile states. Helping to create economic prosperity and legitimate and politically accountable institutions of governance in weak states poses many complex challenges that the international development community and US civilian aid agencies have struggled to address. New US military counterinsurgency doctrine defines “Phase Zero” non - combat development activities as a core military mission equal in importance to that of its combat missions. The US military lacks the development expertise to effectively engage fragile states, as demonstrated by its record in Iraq. The result is a narrow, instrumental understanding of the relationship between security and development that ironically undermines, rather than strengthens, a coherent and effective strategy for dealing with failed states.
Topic:
Security, Development, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States

10441. Discontent with the World Bank's Excursion into Economic Geography: Lions and Butterflies Once More?

Author:
Robert M. Buckley and Thomas D. Buckley
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
The World Bank's 2009 Reshaping Economic Geography has had overwhelmingly negative reviews by geographers. Why are they so unhappy with the Bank's excursion into economic geography? One answer is that they have some valid criticisms. Another explanation, one that we think is important, is that some of their criticisms are not valid. We think that this problem arises because of cross disciplinary problems, filled with ―venom and incomprehension. We attempt to put what we think are misunderstandings to the side to clarify the most effective criticisms. If this can be done, perhaps the Bank's foray into economic geography could be more usefully engaged by geographers and others.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and World Bank

10442. Security of Property Rights for Whom?

Author:
Terra Lawson-Remer
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
Although protecting the entitlements of some requires preventing others from claiming and controlling those same resources, much recent research regarding property rights and economic development treats the level of property rights security in a country as homogeneous. Widely used cross-national indices of institutional quality—initially designed to assess the property security of foreign investors—fail to consider marginalized groups. Using a new indicator that measures the property insecurity of ethno-cultural minorities, this article finds significant variation in the risk of expropriation faced by different groups in the same country. Findings also show that although secure property rights for elites ma y be positively related to development, aggregate long-run growth occurs in the presence of significant property insecurity for marginalized minorities.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Human Rights, and Social Stratification

10443. Obama's War: Prospects for the Conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Bruce Riedel
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
On coming into office, President Barak Obama immediately assembled a team to assess the US situation in Afghanistan and formulate a strategy for the mission. Heading up this team was Bruce Riedel, a former adviser to Presidents Clinton and Bush and a former CIA officer. This paper, based on a CIGI Signature Lecture given by Mr. Riedel in April 2010, discusses the history of the US war on terror since 9/11, specifically the actors involved in initiating the al-Qaeda declaration of war on the US and its allies, and the recent terrorist plots and attacks linked to al-Qaeda, which demonstrate that al-Qaeda and its allies continue to mount terrorist attacks despite the efforts of the US to thwart terrorism.
Topic:
Terrorism, War, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States

10444. The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA): Towards a New Era for Caribbean Trade

Author:
Diana Thorburn, John Rapley, Damien King, and Collette Campbell
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) signed in 2008 signalled a new era of trade relations between the European Union (EU) and the Caribbean Forum of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (CARIFORUM). Caribbean exporters previously had greater duty-free access to the EU market than European exporters enjoyed in the Caribbean, along with quotas that enabled them to avoid price competition with rivals from outside the Lomé ACP (Africa, Caribbean and Pacific) bloc.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Caribbean

10445. Obama's New Af-Pak Strategy: Can "Clear, Hold, Build, Transfer" Work?

Author:
C. Christine Fair
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
On entering the White House, US President Barack Obama aimed to put the war in Afghanistan at the forefront of his security agenda following eight years of neglect by a Bush administration preoccupied by the war in Iraq. The Obama administration spent nearly On entering the White House, US President Barack Obama aimed to put the war in Afghanistan at the forefront of his security agenda following eight years of neglect by a Bush administration preoccupied by the war in Iraq. The Obama administration spent nearly a year reviewing the situation in Afghanistan and vetting war options amid protracted interagency deliberation and partisan debate. By the end of 2009, President Obama affirmed his administration's commitment to degrading the capabilities of terrorist groups ensconced in Afghanistan and Pakistan and announced that, by the end of July 2011, the US would begin a conditions-based transfer of responsibility to the Afghan government and security forces, enabling the United States to diminish its kinetic military activities in favour of a more "typical" presence with Washington continuing to providing development and economic assistance, plus training for military and civilian personnel. Thus the counter-insurgency mantra of "clear, hold and build" became, under Obama, "clear, hold, build and transfer." This paper evaluates the viability of the "clear, hold, build and transfer" approach in light of the structural challenges to each element and the pressure to deliver results in a short time-frame amid difficult security conditions.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

10446. The Developmental State in Africa: Problems and Prospects

Author:
Peter Meyns (ed) and Charity Musamba (ed)
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Against the background of successful developmental experiences in East Asia this report discusses the relevance of the developmental state concept to conditions in Africa. In her contribution Charity Musamba reviews the main theoretical literature on the developmental state and identifies four key features which have informed successful implementation in East Asian countries. With regard to Africa, she challenges the “impossibility theorem” and supports African analysts who defend the need for a democratic developmental state in Africa. Peter Meyns analyzes the development path of an African country, Botswana, which – not withstanding certain weaknesses– can be seen as an example of a successful developmental state in the African context.
Topic:
Democratization and Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

10447. Toward Institutional Innovation in US Labor Market Policy: Learning from Europe?

Author:
Tobias Schulze-Cleven and Henry Farrell
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
What keeps US labor market institutions from more effectively helping the nation cope with the current economic crisis and secure its future prosperity? What is the scope for politically feasible innovation in US labor market policy? These are crucial policy questions. As a result of the global financial crisis, the US unemployment rate climbed into double digits and has remained higher than in many European countries. The US is experiencing the highest level of unemployment for a generation and the highest rate of long-term unemployment for more than half a century. American families are suffering from financial hardship without any fault of their own, and many of the currently unemployed will find it hard to re-enter the workforce during the recovery. Nor is the government easily able to use current programs to help those seeking work. Even though policymakers have launched new initiatives during the past year, the US remains almost uniquely weak among advanced industrialized democracies in its lack of policy programs to support the populace in successfully engaging with the labor market.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

10448. From Religion to Reality: Energy systems transformation for sustainable prosperity

Author:
John Zysman and Mark Huberty
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
There are compelling and varied arguments for moving to low-carbon, high-efficiency energy systems. Reducing emissions to limit or avoid climate change leads the public debate, but reduced dependence on imported energy, avoidance of conflicts over energy resources, and the rising price of fossil fuels also motivate action. Nevertheless, the potential cost and difficulty of making the transition to a new energy system have generated substantial opposition from entrenched economic interests and consumers alike.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and Markets

10449. Parliamentary War Powers Around the World, 1989-2004. A New Dataset

Author:
Dirk Peters, Wolfgang Wagner, and Cosima Glahn
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
War powers have been contested between governments and parliaments throughout the history of democratic politics and political theory. On the one hand, the authorisation of standing armies, of conscription and of taxes for the purpose of waging war has been the raison d'être of early modern parliamentarianism ever since the English nobility reached a constitutional settlement in the Glorious Revolution of 1688. Moreover, as few decisions potentially have a more severe impact on the lives of citizens than decisions regarding military missions, one can argue that no meaningful notion of democracy could possibly exempt them from parliamentary control (see Lord, 2008). On the other hand, theorists of democratic politics have been concerned that parliamentary influence over military deployments would threaten to undermine executive flexibility and thus hamper the effectiveness of military operations. Machiavelli, Locke, Montesquieu and de Tocqueville all argued that the executive should be able to decide autonomously over the deployment of armed forces (see Damrosch, 2002: 43; Owens and Pelizzo, 2009). Both arguments have survived significant changes in the nature of armed conflict, with self-defence and peace-support missions replacing war as legal and legitimate forms of military force (Neff, 2005).
Topic:
Democratization, Political Theory, History, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

10450. Parliamentary War Powers: A Survey of 25 European Parliaments

Author:
Sandra Dieterich, Hartwig Hummel, and Stefan Marschall
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
This paper presents a survey of parliamentary 'war powers' based on a comprehensive and detailed review of the degrees and institutional forms of parliamentary involvement in military security policy-making. As our original research project focused on the involvement of European Union (EU) states in the recent Iraq war, we present data for the then 25 member and accession states of the EU as of early 2003. This survey of parliamentary war powers covers the legislative, budgetary, control, communicationrelated and dismissal powers of the respective parliaments relating to the use of military force. Referring to this data, we distinguish five classes of democratic nation-states, ranging from those with 'very strong' to those with only 'very weak' war powers of the respective national parliament.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Governance, and Law
Political Geography:
Iraq and Europe

10451. Measuring Security Sector Governance – A Guide to Relevant Indicators

Author:
Ursula C. Schroeder
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The growing frequency and scope of externally supported security sector reform processes has sparked demand for tools to assess changes in security sector governance in states around the world. This paper takes a first small step towards this goal. By mapping the diverse indicator sets relevant for security sector governance, it provides an overview of currently available data about the quality of security provision and security sector governance among states. In its first part, the paper specifies its understanding of security sector governance and discusses the uses and limits of qualitative and quantitative indicators to measure security sector governance. The paper then provides a comprehensive overview of existing security- and governance-related indexes and assesses their contribution to measuring change in security sector governance over time and across cases. Finally, the paper's extensive 'source guide for security sector governance indicators' provides brief profiles of the discussed indicators and their data sources, and outlines variations in the scope, coverage and methodology of the various indicators
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Defense Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:
United Nations

10452. The Role of Penal Reform in Security Sector Reform

Author:
Megan Bastick
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Penal reform activities have been carried on in Europe and the United States since at least the late eighteenth century. Security sector reform (SSR), a much newer concept, is a governance-driven approach that looks to strengthen the roles of both state and non-state actors to deliver security to individuals and communities. As such, attention to the penal system is important in any comprehensive SSR process. However, much SSR programming overlooks penal elements, and lessons learnt through long experience in penal reform have not been applied to other SSR activities. There is limited discourse between the penal reform community of practice and the wider SSR community.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Law, and Prisons/Penal Systems
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

10453. Challenges for Integrated Border Management in the European Union

Author:
Otwin Marenin
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The expansion of the European Union has required a rethinking of how the external borders of the EU can best be protected against transnational crime, illegal immigration, trafficking in goods and people, non-legitimate asylum seekers and terrorist-related threats. The history, strategic logic, issues faced and current policies for securing the expanding external borders of the EU through the integrated border management (IBM) vision and strategy will be described and critically analysed. The paper is based on information in publicly available documents from EU institutions, scholarly writings on borders and the management of border controls, my own prior writings on border controls and police reforms, and a few interviews with participants involved in creating a new EU integrated border management system.
Topic:
Crime, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, and Immigration
Political Geography:
Europe

10454. ¿Víctimas o victimarias? Replanteando concepciones sobre mujeres terroristas suicidas

Author:
Helke Enkerlin Madero and Marcela Luis Zatarain
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
This article analyzes, through the lens of feminist theories, the motivations of women who engage in acts of suicide terrorism and question whether they are different from those of men. Their role in these organizations and their objectives are also examined. Finally, the article attempts to determine if the phenomenon of female suicide terrorism reflects increasing equality in their social context or is merely a way of exploiting the stereotypical image and traditional roles of women. In the course of research, three cases where women's participation is of note were analyzed: the palestinian-israeli conflict, the Black Tigresses of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and the so-called “black widows” of Chechnya.
Topic:
Political Violence, Gender Issues, Terrorism, Political Theory, and Armed Struggle

10455. Are Private Equity Firms in Emerging Markets Entrepreneurial? A Case Study of Egypt

Author:
Ayman Ismail
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Over the five year period from 2003 to 2008, private equity and venture capital investments have grown exponentially, both globally and in emerging markets, making private equity firms and funds increasingly important actors in emerging markets. In this paper, we examine the hypothesis that private equity firms in emerging markets are entrepreneurial-i.e., are more focused on creating new firms or growing and globalizing existing ones, based on a case study of Egypt.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

10456. Prevention and Control of Chronic Non-communicable Disease in Nine Pacific Rim Cities

Author:
Karen Eggleston, Meng Kin Lin, Kun Chen, Yunxian Yu, Sung-Il Cho, Sian Griffiths, EK Yeoh, Jamal Hisham Hashim, Masamine Jimba, Carl Anderson Johnson, Paula Palmer, Vu-Anh Le, Huu-Bich Tran, Ngoc-Quang La, and Bambang Wispriyono
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Populous, economically dynamic, and rapidly urbanizing, the Asia Pacific both reflects and strongly shapes trends in global public health. A comparative assessment of chronic disease prevalence, risk factors, and policy responses in nine Pacific Rim cities shows that chronic diseases are rapidly becoming the leading cause of morbidity and mortality even in the lower income cities of the Pacific Rim. Policy responses are heterogeneous, with few sufficiently funded or adequately informed by evidence. Much could be learned from comparative research and rigorous evaluation of prevention and control initiatives in this region.
Topic:
Globalization and Health
Political Geography:
Asia and Australia/Pacific

10457. The Effect of Coresidence with an Adult Child on Depressive Symptoms among Older Widowed Women in South Korea: An Instrumental Variable Estimation

Author:
Young Kyung Do and Chetna Malhotra
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to estimate the causal effect of coresidence with an adult child on depressive symptoms among older widowed women in South Korea. Data from the first and second waves of the Korea Longitudinal Study of Aging were used. Analysis was restricted to widowed women aged ? 65 years with at least one living child (N=2,449). We use an instrumental variable approach that exploits the cultural setting where number of sons predicts the probability of an elderly woman's coresidence with an adult child but is not directly correlated with the mother's depressive symptoms. Our models adjust for age, education, total assets, residence, functional limitations, self-rated health, and various illnesses. Our robust estimation results indicate that, among older widowed women, coresidence with an adult child has a significant protective effect on depressive symptoms, but that this effect does not necessarily benefit those with clinically relevant depressive symptoms. Future demographic and social transitions in South Korea portend that older women's increasing vulnerability to poor mental health is an important though less visible public health challenge.
Topic:
Demographics, Gender Issues, and Health
Political Geography:
Israel and South Korea

10458. The Imbalance between Patient Needs and the Limited Competence of Top-Level Health Providers in Urban China: An Empirical Study

Author:
Qunhong Shen, Liyang Tang, Yilin Feng, and Jenny Tang
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The increasing importance of patient satisfaction is a common trend for the global health delivery system. This development is one of the consequences of wider social movements toward consumerism (Sitzia and Wood 1997) and also is the result of the new public management (Christoffer 2002).
Topic:
Communism, Development, Government, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
China

10459. Perverse Incentives in the Chinese Health System and Assessment of the April 2009 Reform

Author:
Meghan Bruce
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Since 1978, China has been primarily market-focused in its provision of health care and social services. The market-driven health care system has been characterized by perverse incentives for individual providers, patients, and hospitals that are inducing improper provision of care: overprescription of pharmaceuticals and hightech testing, lack of effective primary care and gatekeeping, and competition for patients instead of referral. The national health care reform document that was made public in April 2009 recognizes this failure of the market in health care in China. The document suggests potential policies for improvement on the current system that are focused primarily on a targeted increase in government funding and an increased, changing role for the government. We assess the potential of this national health care reform to achieve the stated goals, and conclude that the reform as designed is necessary but insufficient. For the reform to meet its goals, the promised increase in funding should be accompanied by improved data collection, regional piloting, and a strong regulatory and purchasing role for the government in aligning incentives for individual and institutional payers, providers, and patients.
Topic:
Health and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Israel

10460. Patient Preferences, Concerns, and Satisfaction with Providers before the Chinese Urban Health System Reform: A Social Groups Analysis

Author:
Qunhong Shen and Liyang Tang
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Many Chinese express dissatisfaction with their healthcare system with the popular phrase Kan bing nan, kan bing gui ("medical treatment is difficult to access and expensive"). Critics have cited inefficiencies in delivery and poor quality of services. Determining the pattern of patient satisfaction with health services in China-and the causes of patient dissatisfaction-may help to improve health care not only in China but in countries in similar predicaments throughout the world.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Social Stratification, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
China

10461. Understanding the Expansion and Quality of Engineering Education in India (draft)

Author:
Rafiq Dossani, Martin Carnoy, and Jandhyala Tilak
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This is a study of higher education and quality in one of the world's largest developing economies. India. India is already an important global economic player, and, unusual for developing countries, its success is due in part to exports of information technology services. By mid-century, India could be an economic powerhouse, but one factor influencing whether it reaches this level will be how successfully it creates quality higher education to put its labor force at the cutting edge of the information society. It is difficult to imagine large economies reaching higher stages of development in the 21st century without high levels of innovative, well-trained, politically savvy professionals.
Topic:
Education and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

10462. Longevity, Capital Formation and Economic Development

Author:
Qiong Zhang
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Many researchers have concluded that longer life expectancies prompt increased investment in education, as a prolonged labor supply raises the rate of return on education. Besides explaining the empirical evidence behind this conclusion (at an absolute level), there is another issue to be discussed: does time spent in studying and working increase proportionally with higher longevity? Building on an extended life-cycle model with an assumption on a more realistic distribution of life cycle mortality rates, this article considers dynamic effects of prolonging longevity on economic development by directly introducing changes in longevity into the economy, which is more preferable than comparative static analysis that relies on changes in relevant parameters. It shows that prolonged life expectancy will cause individuals to increase their time in education but may not warrant rises in labor input. Later we show that higher improvement rate of longevity will also promote economic growth, even we exclude the mechanism of human capital formation, and only consider growth effects of higher improvement rate of life expectancy from physical capital investment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, Health, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

10463. Catastrophic Payments and Impoverishment Due to Out-of-Pocket Health Spending: The Effects of Recent Health Sector Reforms in India

Author:
Soumitra Ghosh
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Out-of-pocket payments are the principal source of health care finance in most Asian countries, and India is no exception. This fact has important consequences for household living standards. In this paper the author explores significant changes in the 1990s and early 2000s that appear to have occurred as a result of out-of-pocket spending on health care in 16 Indian states. Using data from the National Sample Survey on consumption expenditure undertaken in 1993-94 and 2004-05, the author measures catastrophic payments and impoverishment due to out-of-pocket payments for health care. Considerable data on the magnitude, distribution and economic consequences of out-of-pocket payments in India are provided; when compared over the study period, these indicate that new policies have significantly increased both catastrophic expenditure and impoverishment.
Topic:
Economics, Health, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
India

10464. The limitations of European Union reports on arms exports: the case of Central Asia

Author:
Mark Bromley and Paul Holtom
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
All European Union (EU) member states are required to submit information on arms export licences and arms exports for inclusion in the EU annual reports on arms exports. The example of Central Asia— Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—shows that the data in these EU annual reports has only a limited utility for monitoring exports of arms and military equipment. The specific case of Uzbekistan, which was subject to an EU arms embargo between 2005 and 2009, shows that certain transfers of apparent concern have been reported but not investigated, while other transfers have not appeared in the annual reports.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

10465. New Foreign Policy Actors in China

Author:
Linda Jakobson and Dean Knox
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
In contemporary China a cacophony of voices urges decision makers to pursue a variety of foreign policies. The continuing pluralization of Chinese society and China's growing interdependence with the international order have made decision-making processes more complex. These changes, taking place at a time when China's cooperation is increasingly vital to the resolution of key global issues, present a challenge to foreign policy makers. Effective engagement of China in the international arena requires an understanding of the interplay within and between not only the Communist Party of China (CPC), the Chinese Government and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) but also new foreign policy actors on the margins of the traditional power structure. These new actors include resource companies, financial institutions, local governments, research organizations, the media and netizens.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

10466. Sexual Violence in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Desk Review

Author:
Juan Manuel Contreras, Sarah Bott, Elizabeth Dartnall, and Alessandra Guedes
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:
The World Health Organization defines sexual violence as “any sexual act, attempt to obtain a sexual act, unwanted sexual comments or advances, or acts to traffic, or otherwise directed, against a person's sexuality using coercion, by any person regardless of relationship to the victim, in any setting, including but not limited to home and work” (Jewkes et al., 2002). A limited but growing body of evidence suggests that sexual violence is a serious problem throughout Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) – both as a public health problem and a violation of human rights. This document reviews what is known about sexual violence in the LAC region. It aims to explore the magnitude, patterns and risk factors associated with sexual violence, as well as the legal and policy frameworks, women's responses to sexual violence, access to services and service responses, promising interventions, research gaps and priorities for future research. Over two hundred published and unpublished documents were reviewed to prepare this document. Grey literature was identified through internet-based searches and from experts working in the region. The scope of this review is primarily based on research produced between 2000 and the present. While an effort has been made to cover the entire Latin American and Caribbean region, research is not available for all countries in the region. As such, this document should be considered the first phase in an ongoing process of consolidating the existing evidence and identifying research gaps and priorities for this culturally, racially and geographically diverse region.
Topic:
Health, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Developing World
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

10467. Sexual Violence Research Initiative: Report of Evaluation Findings

Author:
Stephanie M. Townsend
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:
The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI) is a global project that promotes research on sexual violence in order to improve policy and service delivery. In March 2010 the Global Forum for Health Research commissioned an external evaluation of the SVRI. This report details the methods and findings of that evaluation. Using archival review and key informant interviews, the evaluation assessed key progress indicators and six dimensions of the SVRI's performance:relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, institutional development, complementarity, and sustainability.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Health, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and International Organization

10468. The Sri Lankan Tamil Diaspora after the LTTE

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For the past quarter-century the Tamil diaspora has shaped the Sri Lankan political landscape through its financial and ideological support to the military struggle for an independent Tamil state. Although the May 2009 defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has dramatically reduced the diaspora\'s influence, the majority of Tamils outside Sri Lanka continue to support a separate state, and the diaspora\'s money can ensure it plays a role in the country\'s future. The nature of that role, however, depends largely on how Colombo deals with its Tamil citizens in the coming months and on how strongly the international community presses the government to enact constitutional reforms to share power with and protect the rights of Tamils and other minorities. While the million-strong diaspora cannot regenerate an insurgency in Sri Lanka on its own, its money and organisation could turn up the volume on any violence that might eventually re-emerge.
Topic:
Political Violence, Armed Struggle, Diaspora, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Sri Lanka

10469. An Undisciplined Defense: Understanding the $2 Trillion Surge in US Defense Spending

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
The rise in US defense spending since 1998 has no precedent in all the years since the Korean war. It most readily compares with two earlier, but lesser spending surges: the 1958-1968 surge of 43% and the 1975-1985 surge of 57%. The post-Cold War retrenchment of the US military reached its limit in 1998 with DoD's budget settling at an ebb point of $361.5 billion (2010 USD). If we treat the 1998 budget level as a “baseline” and project it forward to 2010 (adjusting for inflation), we find that the total amount of funds that have been given to DoD above this level during the years 1999-2010 is $2.15 trillion (in 2010 dollars). This figure constitutes what we call the post-1998 spending surge. (All told, DoD budget authority for the period was $6.5 trillion in 2010 dollars).
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
United States

10470. Democratization via Elections in an African "Narco-state"? The Case of Guinea-Bissau

Author:
Dirk Kohnert
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Recent development cooperation with Guinea-Bissau, focusing on good governance, state-building and conflict prevention, did not contribute to democratization nor to the stabilization of volatile political, military and economic structures. The portrayal of Guinea-Bissau as a failed “narco-state”, as we ll as Western aid meant to stabilize this state, are both based on dubious concepts. Certainly, the impact of drug trafficking could endanger democratization and state-building if continued unchecked. However, the most pressing need is not state-building facilitated by external aid that is poorly rooted in the social and political fabric of the country. Rather, it is grassroots nation-building that is a pre-condition for the creation of viable state institutions.
Topic:
Democratization and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea-Bissau

10471. Broadcasting in UN Blue: The Unexamined Past and Uncertain Future of Peacekeeping Radio

Author:
Bill Orme
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
For almost two decades, United Nations peacekeeping missions have routinely set up local radio stations that almost immediately have become the dominant national broadcasters of those post-conflict countries.
Topic:
Peace Studies, United Nations, and Mass Media

10472. Reforming Pakistan's Civil Service

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Decades of mismanagement, political manipulation and corruption have rendered Pakistan's civil service incapable of providing effective governance and basic public services. In public perceptions, the country's 2.4 million civil servants are widely seen as unresponsive and corrupt, and bureaucratic procedures cumbersome and exploitative. Bureaucratic dysfunction and low capacity undermine governance, providing opportunities to the military to subvert the democratic transition and to extremists to destabilise the state. The civilian government should prioritise reforms that transform this key institution into a leaner, more effective and accountable body.
Topic:
Corruption, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

10473. How Signifying Practices Constitute Food (In)security—The Case of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

Author:
David Shim
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues that the question of food (in)security in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is not necessarily indicative of the country's actual nutritional conditions but is rather constituted through meaning‐making behavior—signifying practices—predominantly on the part of humanitarian aid institutions working there. The argument is not intended to gloss over the food and nutritional situation in North Korea or to suggest that famine, starvation, or malnutrition do not exist. The paper nevertheless argues that humanitarian institutions are not external to or separate from the reality they observe, monitor, and measure, but are rather constitutive of the categories which produce that reality— in this case food (in)security in North Korea. The undertaking of nutrition surveys, food security assessments, and food‐aid monitoring as well as the issuing of consensus statements are examples of aid practices that signify North Korea in terms of vulnerability, emergency, and food insecurity. The paper's central argument is that it is through precisely these observations, assessments, and representations that food (in)security in North Korea comes into being.
Topic:
Agriculture, Human Welfare, and Food
Political Geography:
Israel and North Korea

10474. The Economist Intelligence Unit's Index of Democracy 2008

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
The results of the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index 2008 confirm that, following a decades-long global trend in democratisation, the spread of democracy has come to a halt. Comparing the results for 2008 with those from the first edition of the index, which covered 2006, shows that the dominant pattern in the past two years has been stagnation. Although there is no recent trend of outright regression, there are few instances of significant improvement. However, the global financial crisis, resulting in a sharp and possibly protracted recession, could threaten democracy in some parts of the world.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, International Political Economy, and Financial Crisis

10475. Regionale Ordnungen in politischen Räumen. Ein Beitrag zur Theorie regionaler Ordnungen

Author:
Nadine Godehardt and Oliver W. Lembcke
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Seit einiger Zeit stehen Regionen (wieder) auf der Agenda der Theoriediskussionen in den Internationalen Beziehungen. Es ist u.a. von einer „emerging regional architecture of world politics“ die Rede und von der Zukunft eines „multiregional system of international relations“ oder sogar einer „world of regions“. In dieser Perspektive geht es gegenwärtig nicht mehr allein um die Frage, welche Strukturvorgaben des internationalen Systems für eine neue Weltpolitik zu berücksichtigen sind. Vielmehr ist mit Blick auf die regionalen Ordnungen erforderlich zu fragen, wann und unter welchen Umständen die Strukturen und Akteurskonstellationen für regionale Kontexte überhaupt Bedeutung haben. Allerdings ist der politiktheoretische Status der Regionen in den Internationalen Beziehungen alles andere als klar. Mit diesem Beitrag werden zwei Ziele verfolgt: Einerseits wird die bisherige Diskussion mithilfe von drei Schlüsselkonzepten – Kooperation, Regionale Sicherheitskomplexe und Externalitäten – strukturiert; andererseits wird das konzeptionelle Verhältnis von Regionen, politischen Räumen und regionalen Ordnungen diskutiert. Dabei werden Kriterien – geografische Lage, politische Entscheidungen, Drittwirkungen dieser Entscheidungen – vorgestellt, die eine weiterführende Analyse verschiedener Typen regionaler Ordnungen ermöglichen.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Regional Cooperation, and Political Theory

10476. Abkhazia: Deepening Dependence

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The historically coveted region of Abkhazia has become even more dependent on Moscow since Russia's controversial recognition a year and a half ago. Russia is financing half the region's budget, and against vigorous Georgian protests, it is spending $465 million to refurbish existing and build new military installations in the picturesque Black Sea coastal area. Virtually the entire population holds Russian citizenship, and almost all trade is with the northern neighbour. It will take constructive, creative thinking on the part of Georgian, Russian, Abkhazian and international actors alike to restore even a modicum of confidence between the parties to the conflict. Given Abkhazia's unrealistic insistence that Georgia recognise it as independent and the equally unrealistic prospect that Sukhumi will acknowledge Georgia's sovereignty, the two parties should focus on creating economic and humanitarian links without status preconditions in order to benefit both, build stability and give momentum to a long reconciliation process.
Topic:
Economics and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia and Asia

10477. The Threat from Jammat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), a terrorist organisation, remains active and dangerous despite the decimation of its ranks over the last five years. Its links to the Pakistan group Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) remain a particularly serious concern. Since its coordinated bombing attack across the country on 17 August 2005, police have arrested hundreds of JMB members; they have also executed every member of its original leadership, including its founder, Shaikh Abdur Rahman. Its last successful attack was in January 2006. The state has succeeded in tackling the Islamist extremist threat to the extent that organisations such as JMB are struggling to survive. But the arrest of 95 JMB operatives since October 2008 and discoveries of huge caches of explosives demonstrate that JMB was able to regroup, recruit and raise funds. No one should take its demise for granted: the possibility of another attack remains, and the government should move quickly to create a planned policeled counter-terrorism force. It should also step up counterterrorism cooperation, particularly with neighbouring India.
Topic:
Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

10478. Iraq's Uncertain Future: Elections and Beyond

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As a rule, Iraq's post-Saddam elections have tended to magnify pre-existing negative trends. The parliamentary polls to be held on 7 March are no exception. The focus on electoral politics is good, no doubt, but the run-up has highlighted deep-seated problems that threaten the fragile recovery: recurring election-related violence; ethnic tensions over Kirkuk; the re-emergence of sectarianism; and blatant political manipulation of state institutions. The most egregious development was the decision to disqualify over 500 candidates, a dangerous, arbitrary step lacking due process, yet endorsed by the Shiite ruling parties. Under normal circumstances, that alone might have sufficed to discredit the elections. But these are not normal circumstances, and for the sake of Iraq's stability, the elections must go on. At a minimum, however, the international community should ramp up its electoral monitoring and define clear red lines that need to be respected if the results are to be considered legitimate. And it should press the next government to seriously tackle the issue – long-neglected yet never more critical – of national reconciliation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

10479. The WASH Factor: Oxfam's experiences with humanitarian coordination for water, sanitation, and health

Author:
Aimee Ansari and Bethan Montague-Brown
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) cluster is widely acknowledged to be among the best functioning within the humanitarian coordination system established in 2005. It is commonly believed that it is easier for the WASH cluster to function well because the standards are agreed, water and sanitation are fairly straightforward interventions, and outcomes are tangible and measurable. While these factors have helped the WASH cluster, they alone have not led to the relative success of the cluster.

10480. Reaching Tipping Point? Climate change and poverty in Tajikistan

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The people of Tajikistan, a small, mountainous country in Central Asia, are experiencing the impacts of climate change. More frequent droughts and heightened extreme weather conditions are hitting poor communities, eroding their resilience. The country's glaciers are melting, bringing the danger, in the future, of greater water shortages and even disputes in the wider region. Last summer's unusually good rains and consequent harvest brought some relief to rural communities across Tajikistan but the long-term trends are clear – and ominous.
Topic:
Climate Change and Environment
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Tajikistan

10481. The impact of the global financial crisis on women in Southeast Asia

Author:
Yada Praparpun
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This report analyses the impact of the current global economic crisis on women in five Southeast Asian countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. This research aims to provide up-to-date information and recommendations to policy makers in both the public and private sectors on how the economic crisis is affecting women workers in the aforementioned countries. The results of the research will be shared with civil society organizations, government agencies, regional and global institutions, academic institutions, trade unions, donor agencies, NGOs, and the media.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

10482. The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on the Pacific Region

Author:
Simon Feeny
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
At a macroeconomic level, the Global Economic Crisis (GEC) has had less impact on many Pacific countries than on most other developing countries across the world. However, this does not imply that Pacific country economies are performing well. Economic growth rates for most countries in the Pacific region are expected to be low for 2009 and 2010 and the majority of economies are likely to contract on a per capita basis in these years.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Poverty, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

10483. Gender Perspectives on the Global Economic Crisis

Author:
Richard King and Caroline Sweetman
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The global economic crisis was sparked in the financial engine-houses of the world's economy in 2008. This is a story many of us in the developed world are now painfully familiar with. Less familiar, perhaps, are the ramifications for those among us who live in developing and transition countries. As global financial fire fighting has concentrated on dousing the blazes in the developed world, many commentators argue that the initial flames have been put out and that green shoots of recovery are beginning to emerge across the charred financial landscape. However, unprecedented global integration means that the world's economies now have few remaining firebreaks. Though they took longer to ignite, many developing countries are still caught up in the inferno. With an extra 50 million women, men and children expected to have been pushed into extreme poverty by the end of 2009 as a direct result of the crisis, and with this number expected to rise to 89 million by the end of 2010, the developing world is being badly burned.
Topic:
Gender Issues and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America

10484. Trade and growth – again

Author:
Per Botolf Maurseth
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
A stylised fact from the large and growing literature on relationships between trade and growth is that liberal trade policies may stimulate growth. However, there is no academic consensus that liberal trade policies are either necessary or sufficient ingredients in growth promoting policies. In this paper, the relationships between trade policy and growth are investigated. The paper adds some new findings. My measure of trade policy is not only applied average tariff rates which have been used by others, but such tariff rates for agriculture and manufacturing separately. The results indicate opposite results of the two: Protection of manufacturing correlates negatively with growth, while tariffs on agriculture imports seem to have a weaker though positive correlation. These results are robust in the sense that they remain significant with the same sign independently of different specifications and inclusions of various control variables.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance

10485. The Protection of Aid Workers Principled Protection and Humanitarian Security in Darfur

Author:
Karoline R. Eckroth
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The changing nature of armed conflict has resulted in increased need to safeguard civilians, including humanitarian personnel, which is reflected in the emerging protection of civilians agenda. This report considers to what extent the issues raised in the recently updated OCHA Aide Memoire reflect the security needs of aid workers on the ground, by examining the case of Darfur
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Genocide, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
United Nations

10486. Dilemmas of Regional Peacemaking: The Dynamics of the AU's Response to Darfur

Author:
A. Sarjoh Bah
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The African Union's (AU) peacemaking efforts in Darfur exposed the limits of implementing its ambitious peace and security agenda, and the absence of an effective international system to support regional peacemaking efforts. This paper contends that the AU's efforts brought to the fore three critical issues: first, the gap between the AU's mandate to intervene in situations involving war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide as provided for in its founding charter, the Constitutive Act, and its capacity to do so; second, the absence of an international system to support regional peacemaking, especially when it involves deploying complex multidimensional peace operations; finally, it brought into sharper focus the inherent tensions and contradictions surrounding existing norms and emerging concepts such as sovereignty, the responsibility to protect (R2P) and internationalized justice through the International Criminal Court (ICC). The paper focuses on the AU's two pronged strategy in Darfur: Political and Military/peacekeeping.
Topic:
Security, Genocide, Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa

10487. A Field Based Review of the Peacebuilding Commission in Burundi

Author:
Shepard Forman, Rahul Chandran, and Gigja Sorensen
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Burundi was placed on the Peacebuilding Commission's (PBC) agenda in June 2006, as the peacekeeping mission (ONUB) was drawing down and the Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Burundi (BINUB) was starting up.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

10488. The State of the Humanitarian System

Author:
Abby Stoddard, Adele Harmer, Paul Harvey, and Glyn Taylor
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This report, commissioned under ALNAP's Humanitarian Performance Project, aims to provide a system-level mapping and assessment of international humanitarian assistance. To this end, the report 1) defines key criteria for assessing system performance and progress, 2) assesses the system's performance over the past two years against these criteria, 3) presents new, previously unavailable descriptive statistics and 4) highlights some new initiatives in policy and practice. The research team synthesised the findings of roughly 500 global survey responses, 100 recent evaluations, 89 interviews, staffing and budget information of over 200 aid organisations and a financial analysis of global humanitarian aid flows. The resulting report represents a pilot effort to broadly assess the 'state of the system' with the intent, if it is found useful, to repeat the exercise once every two years.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Disaster Relief, Human Welfare, and Humanitarian Aid

10489. Confronting the Long Crisis of Globalization

Author:
Alex Evans, Bruce Jones, and David Steven
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Globalization has entered a turbulent period. Over the past twenty years, the most significant threats to international security, stability, and prosperity have evolved rapidly. Global systems are now tightly interconnected, with risk proliferating freely across borders.
Topic:
Debt, Globalization, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and India

10490. Independent Oversight for Mining in the Eastern Congo?

Author:
Jason Stearns and Steve Hege
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The Center on International Cooperation (CIC) convened a group of leading non-governmental experts, on 3-4 December 2009, in a two-part discussion entitled: “Practical Mechanisms to Combat the Militarization of Natural Resources in the DR Congo.” This workshop aimed to facilitate constructive dialogue on the issue of natural resources and conflict in the DRC. Participants sought to identify common ground regarding existing and potential measures to combat the militarization of mining in the short to medium term. Over the course of these discussions, a clear consensus emerged surrounding the added value of independent oversight in order to both prevent mining from fuelling conflict as well to strengthen state capacity in the eastern Congo. In their most recent report, released days after this CIC event, the United Nations Group of Experts also included a recommendation for the establishment of such a mechanism. Through this concept note, CIC seeks to further develop how to operationalize this idea within the complex political and economic context of the eastern Congo.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

10491. Negotiations and Strategy: Understanding Sanctions Effectiveness

Author:
Michael Chaitkin
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Despite extensive and ongoing debate about economic sanctions, policy makers disagree about their effectiveness. This is to some extent surprising given the frequency and ceremony with which states sanction each other to achieve their policy goals. Analytically, this confusion is understandable; the multitude of factors that influence the outcome of a conflict involving sanctions confounds the task of evaluating the impact of sanctions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Sanctions

10492. The Italian Foreign Ministry on the way of reform

Author:
Raffaello Matarazzo
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Italian government recently approved a reform of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) which should take effect by the summer of this year . By bringing the structure of the MFA into line with those of Italy's principal European partners, the reform envisages: A reduction from 13 to 8 in the number of Directorates General (DGs). These will no longer be divided by geographical region but by main subject area; The creation of a stable, structured relationship between the MFA and the Ministry for Economic and Financial Affairs (MEF); The creation of “ambassador-managers” who will be called to manage the budgets of Italy's missions abroad in an increasingly autonomous and entrepreneurial manner.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

10493. Dynamics and evolution of the EU-Egypt relationship within the ENP framework

Author:
Michele Comelli
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Egypt, like the other Southern Mediterranean (SM) countries, was more of a recipient than a co-initiator of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) launched by the European Union (EU) in 2003. In fact, while being extended also to SM countries, the ENP was mainly intended for the EU's Eastern neighbours (Comelli, 2005). At that time, relations between the EU and Egypt were mostly conducted within the framework of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (Barcelona Process, launched in November 1995), and the related Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreement (AA), signed on 25 June 2001, had not yet entered into force.
Topic:
Disaster Relief
Political Geography:
Europe and Egypt

10494. The New Turkish Foreign Policy And The Future Of Turkey-Eu Relations

Author:
Emiliano Alessandri
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The article refutes the often-heard argument that Ankara's recent 'activism' in the Middle East indicates that Turkey is 'drifting away from the West'. Turkey's improving relations with its neighbors (not only in the Middle East), are mainly a result of the end of the Cold War and of domestic developments which have 'unlocked' Turkey, transforming it into a more open and democratic country with an even greater stake in EU membership. At the same time, the many international and domestic changes that have occurred since Turkey was granted candidate status call for a 're-foundation' of the Turkey-EU relationship. Lacking the latter, the future of Turkey-EU relations will indeed remain uncertain.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

10495. The Future of NATO

Author:
Whitney Shepardson
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
If the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) did not exist today, the United States would not seek to create it. In 1949, it made sense in the face of a potential Soviet invasion to forge a bond in the North Atlantic area among the United States, Canada, and the west European states. Today, if the United States were starting from scratch in a world of transnational threats, the debate would be over whether to follow liberal and neoconservative calls for an alliance of democracies without regard to geography or to develop a great power concert envisioned by the realists to uphold the current order.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, International Cooperation, International Organization, and International Security
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Canada, and Soviet Union

10496. Strengthening the IAEA: How the Nuclear Watchdog Can Regain Its Bark

Author:
Gregory L. Schulte
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The United States has a great interest in the success of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), given the important role it can play in reducing the risks of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. Stalled investigations of Iran and Syria have put the credibility of the IAEA at stake. The agency detected neither Iran’s hidden uranium enrichment facility near Qom nor the reactor being constructed by Syria near al Kibar. These examples underscore the importance of strengthening the agency’s verification capability, by both increasing its authority and sharing more information. The IAEA can also help shape the global growth of nuclear power, ensuring the highest levels of safety and security, while discouraging the spread of sensitive technologies that can be misused to build nuclear weapons. The IAEA Board of Governors’ recent decision to establish a nuclear fuel bank in Russia is a step in the right direction. Success requires a new “Spirit of Vienna”—a willingness of delegates to work toward consensus on even difficult topics—surrounding the agency’s important role in nonproliferation. It also requires a conscious effort by the new Director General to remove the politics from IAEA business and return the agency to its technical mandate.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iran, Syria, and Vienna

10497. U.S.-Mexico Homeland Defense: A Compatible Interface

Author:
Victor E. Renuart, Jr. and Biff Baker
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The United States and Mexico share a common history shaped by military incursions during the 19th and early 20th centuries. The bond between the American and Mexican people, however, has continued to grow closer over time despite occasional negative rhetoric from politicians in Washington, DC, and Mexico City. At local and state levels, relations solidified through the closely knit fabric of our border towns, intermarriage between families on each side of the border, and the development of infrastructure (to include water, wastewater, and gas and electricity utilities) that serves communities to the north and south. At the national level, our relationship became closer due to economic growth resulting from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which now accounts for almost $1 billion (U.S. dollars) in trade per day between the two countries.
Topic:
Security, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, America, Washington, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

10498. Avoiding a Crisis of Confidence in the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent

Author:
John P. Caves, Jr.
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The United States needs to modernize and ensure the long-term reliability and respon¬siveness of its aging nuclear deterrent force and nuclear weapons infrastructure. It cannot otherwise safely reduce its nuclear weapons, responsibly ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, confidently deter and contain challenges from rising or resurgent nuclear-armed near peers, and effectively dissuade allies and partners from acquiring their own nuclear weapons. Modernization is fundamental to avoiding a future crisis of confidence in the U.S. nuclear deterrent..
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

10499. Regional Power Shift s and Climate Knowledge Systems: South Africa as a Climate Power?

Author:
Babette Never
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In the international system, there has been a power shift towards regional powers, which can be illustrated by recent developments in climate governance. I argue that some of these regional powers are also climate powers, which benefit from an issue-specific power shift. The behavior and strategies of those climate powers are central for global climate governance. To analyze their strategies, a multi-level approach is required that captures the link between domestic climate governance and climate foreign policy. I develop such a concept of climate knowledge systems. It is based on Emanuel Adler's theory of cognitive evolution and communities of practice. A pragmatist philosophy such as this that allows for mixed methods research is most suitable for analyzing the proposed connection between knowledge, practices and change. It also presents the key to an extended regional powers framework, leaving the somewhat artificial boundaries of international relations in climate governance behind. The concept of climate knowledge systems is empirically applied to South Africa with some early tentative results of an online expert survey, as well as the analysis of data of the Carbon Disclosure Project.
Topic:
Climate Change and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
South Africa

10500. Behind the Curtain: Assessing the Case for National Curriculum Standards

Author:
Neal McCluskey
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The argument for national curriculum standards sounds simple: set high standards, make all schools meet them, and watch American students achieve at high levels. It is straightforward and compelling, and it is driving a sea change in American education policy.
Topic:
Development, Education, and Culture
Political Geography:
United States and America