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471. Deaths in Wars and Conflicts Between 1945 and 2000

Author:
Milton Leitenberg
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
Abstract:
"A Beastly Century": It was a phrase used by Margaret Drabble, a British novelist, in an address to the Royal Society of Literature in London, on December 14, 2000. But of course it was no more than a human century. In 1994, the historian Eric Hobsbawm wrote that 187 million people were "killed or allowed to die by human decision" in what he called the "short century"-a period of about 75 years from 1914 to 1991. The period chosen by Hobsbawm spanned the beginning of World War I to the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Soviet occupation of its Eastern European "allies." Given that Hobsbawm is a Marxist historian, his choice of the category "by human decision" was particularly significant. However, the sum that he provided was low by just about 29 million people for the full twentieth century, during which approximately 216 million people died in wars and conflict and, in very large numbers, "by human decision." The data to support this statement are presented in the following pages and in a detailed table beginning on page 43 of this document. The purpose of this study is to provide the derivation of the numbers in that table and to briefly discuss several instances in the past decade or so when large numbers of deaths could unquestionably have been averted by international action.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Peace Studies, and War
Political Geography:
Soviet Union and London

472. Toward a European Strategy for Iraq

Author:
Giacomo Luciani and Felix Neugart
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The Iraq crisis has been a disaster for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) of the European Union (EU). Member countries are very visibly split in their position towards the war against the regime in Baghdad. EU institutions have been unable to agree on more than the unconditional implementation of the relevant United Nations resolutions leaving the door open for widely diverging interpretations. The challenge of the Iraq crisis does not bode well for the future of a cohesive European Foreign Policy, and the CFSP requires a fresh approach.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and United Nations

473. From Laeken to Copenhagen European defence: core documents

Author:
Jean-Yves Haine
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The year 2002 was characterised by the stabilisation of Afghanistan, the prospect of war in Iraq, the suicidal, deadly impasse in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and North Korea's declared nuclear proliferation. There was thus a significant deterioration in the international environment. In these conditions of growing uncertainty, in both the short and long term, the Union, which now extends to the borders of the Russian and Arab-Muslim worlds, appears as a haven of stability and peace. The peaceful reunification of the European continent that the enlargement of both the Union and the Atlantic Alliance represents will stand out as one of the positive events of 2002. Yet this pacification of Europe has taken place in a world that is still suffering the consequences of the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. To start with, the United States has developed a conception of its security that is both more sovereign and more comprehensive. The new National Security Strategy includes pre-emptive war among its ways of fighting terrorism and seems to favour coalitions of convenience rather than institutionalised alliances. There is no doubt that this attitude has raised questions in Europe and led to transatlantic difficulties. But this unilateralist fever early in the year gave way to more realistic, pragmatic attitudes with President Bush's speech to the UN on 12 September 2002 and the subsequent adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1441.
Topic:
Terrorism and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Israel, North Korea, Palestine, and United Nations

474. Unproven: The Controversy over Justifying War in Iraq

Author:
David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, and Linda M. Gerber
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
The failure of U.S. and British forces in Iraq to find evidence of weapons of mass destruction has sparked controversy on both sides of the Atlantic and in the wider international community. Two contending explanations have been offered for why the Bush administration made apparently questionable claims about weapons of mass destruction. The first alleges an intelligence failure. The best analysts in the CIA simply had no foolproof way of discerning what Saddam had. They gave the administration a wide-ranging set of estimates, from benign to worst-case, and, given the way bureaucracies behave, the president's advisors adopted the worse case scenario. The second claim, more odious in form and substance, is that the administration inflated and manipulated uncertain data, possibly even requesting that material sent to it be redone to fit preconceived notions. The Bush administration has gone to great pains to reassert that it stands by its previous pronouncements that prohibited weapons will be located in due time.
Topic:
International Relations, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

475. Hidden Costs of War

Author:
William D. Hartung
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
The Bush administration's war on terrorism and its proposed military intervention in Iraq have sparked the steepest increases in military and security spending in two decades. Since September 11, 2001, the federal government has approved over $110 billion in increased military spending and military aid. Spending on national defense is slated to reach $399 billion in the Fiscal Year 2004 budget, and to rise to over $500 billion annually by the end of this decade. These vast sums do not include the costs of the ongoing war in Afghanistan or a war with Iraq. Steven Kosiak of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments estimates that only 5 to 10 percent of the Fiscal Year 2003 Pentagon budget is being set aside for anti-terror activities and homeland security.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Government, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East

476. The Progress of UN Disarmament in Iraq: An Assessment Report

Author:
David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, and Linda M. Gerber
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
After two months of increasingly intensive inspection activity, UN weapons monitors in Iraq, by their own account, have achieved considerable progress in establishing the disarmament process mandated in Security Council Resolution 1441 (2002). During his 27 January update to the Security Council, UN inspections chief Dr. Hans Blix reported that "Iraq has on the whole cooperated rather well so far" with UN inspectors. "It would appear from our experience so far that Iraq has decided in principle to provide cooperation on process, notably access." Although Baghdad has not fully disclosed its weapons activities as required by UN resolutions, and many unanswered questions remain, weapons inspectors have established an effective disarmament verification system in Iraq. They have asked for the "unified resolve" of the Security Council to support an ongoing inspection process. In contrast with the experience of UN weapons monitors during the early 1990s, the inspectors with the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have received unfettered access to Iraqi facilities and have been able to conduct more than 350 on-site inspections. They are employing the world's most advanced technology for detecting nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons and are installing an ongoing monitoring system that will provide permanent surveillance of Iraq's weapons activities.
Topic:
United Nations, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

477. Sustaining Global Democratization: Nation Building and Intervention

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
This panel on global democratization is part of an ongoing ISD effort to focus policy debate on a topic of growing importance. The first in this series of panel discussions was held shortly after 9/11, and was entitled "Sustaining Global Democratization: a priority now more than ever". That title could serve well for this panel also, as the connected issues of democratization and nation building are more timely and urgent than ever. In the new National Security Strategy, the President commits the U.S. to "extend the benefits of freedom across the globe." Democratization is no longer on the fringes of the policy debate. Uppermost on the agenda of policy maker and analyst are the open questions relating to Afghanistan, Iraq and the West-Bank/Gaza. How our democracy promoting goals are to be pursued and achieved in these and other cases is far from clear. Panelists today and at subsequent forums will bring the benefit of their wide experience to these issues. The problems that we discuss are global in nature. Today's panel will for the most part focus on the Middle East. Other regions will be the focus of attention at subsequent forums.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Gaza

478. Conflict Commodities: Addressing the Role of Natural Resources in Conflict

Author:
Natalie Pauwels
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The role that the availability of lucrative natural resources including gem stones, minerals and timber plays in the incidence of violent conflict in several countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, is the subject of significant policy debate and academic research. Indeed, it is generally recognised that the trade in certain commodities has played a role in the continuation of several wars, providing resources to both rebels and governments to finance their military campaigns.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Environment, and War
Political Geography:
America

479. The Wages of War: Iraqi Combatant and Noncombatant Fatalities in the 2003 Conflict

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
The motivating premise of this study is that nations cannot wage war responsibly or intelligently without careful attention to its costs. The broader context in which "Operation Iraqi Freedom" was conducted -- that is, the campaign against terrorism -- makes attention to the repercussions of war even more urgent. Effective action against terrorism depends in fair part on an effort to win hearts and minds. Success in this effort turns significantly on issues of legitimacy and responsible action, especially with regard to the use of force. And the first principle of responsible action is to take account of its effects.
Topic:
Human Welfare and War
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

480. The 1971 Smallpox Epidemic in Aralsk, Kazakhstan, and the Soviet Biological Warfare Program

Author:
Jonathan B. Tucker and Raymond A. Zilinskas
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
The heart of this occasional paper is a translation of an official Soviet-era document titled “Report on Measures Taken to Contain and Eradicate the Smallpox Outbreak Locale in the City of Aralsk, September/October 1971.” This previously secret report describes and analyzes an outbreak of smallpox that occurred in autumn 1971 in Aralsk, a small city on the shore of the Aral Sea in what was then the Kazakhstan Soviet Socialist Republic. Ten persons became infected with smallpox, and three died, before the outbreak was successfully contained by means of quarantine, mass vaccination in Aralsk, and other public health measures. A contagious disease that killed about a third of its victims, smallpox was characterized by high fever, prostration, and a painful pustular rash on the face and body that left survivors with disfiguring facial scars.
Topic:
Health, Terrorism, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction, World Health Organization, and Biosecurity
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kazakhstan