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  • Author: Roman Popadiuk
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: On June 1, 1996, the last strategic missiles were shipped from Ukraine to Russia, bringing to an end a contentious issue that had marred the early stages of U.S.-Ukraine relations. In welcoming this development, President Clinton stated, “I applaud the Ukrainian government for its historic contribution in reducing the nuclear threat .... We remain committed to supporting Ukraine through its ambitious and far-sighted reforms and to working with Ukraine and our European partners to promote Ukraine's integration into the European community.”
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: Europe, Johannesburg
  • Author: Ivelaw L. Griffith
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: This study assesses the Caribbean security landscape on the eve of the fast-approaching new century with a view to considering what the future portends in the security arena. Engaging in even guarded prospection during this period of history is particularly difficult, but also exciting, partly because of dramatic changes that the world began undergoing during the 1980s. These changes make scholars and statesmen approach the new century with a combined sense of expectancy and apprehension. The expectancy stems from the anticipated benefits of the end of the Cold War, among other things; the apprehension is driven by them may unknowns that tile dynamics of changing international relations hold for the future. This is true for the Caribbean as it is for other regions of the world, and it holds true for security as it does for other issue areas.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: Caribbean
  • Author: Donna Lee Van Cott
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The cycle of Indian rebellion and government repression that characterized the first centuries of contact between European and Amerindian peoples cannot yet be consigned to the history books. The eruption of an armed movement in southern Mexico, comprised primarily of destitute Maya Indians, as well as smaller demonstrations of resistance in Brazil, Ecuador, and elsewhere speaks eloquently to this fact. While the majority of conflicts between the estimated 40 million indigenous peoples in Latin America and the societies in which they live are now played out in the political arena, security issues continue to generate violent interethnic conflict. Since the Conquest, the interests of indigenous communities usually have conflicted with national governments' security policies. These include a dimension explicitly intended to control the autonomous tendencies of indigenous communities, suppress Indian political organizing, and erase the independent identity of Indian nations.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: Brazil, South America, Latin America, Central America
  • Author: Barry D. Watts
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Since the end of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, there has been growing discussion of the possibility that technological advances in the means of combat would produce ftmdamental changes in how future wars will be fought. A number of observers have suggested that the nature of war itself would be transformed. Some proponents of this view have gone so far as to predict that these changes would include great reductions in, if not the outright elimination of, the various impediments to timely and effective action in war for which the Prussian theorist and soldier Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) introduced the term "friction." Friction in war, of course, has a long historical lineage. It predates Clausewitz by centuries and has remained a stubbornly recurring factor in combat outcomes right down to the 1991 Gulf War. In looking to the future, a seminal question is whether Clausewitzian friction would succumb to the changes in leading-edge warfare that may lie ahead, or whether such impediments reflect more enduring aspects of war that technology can but marginally affect. It is this question that the present essay will examine.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, Government, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Soviet Union, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Ralph A. Cossa
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The political, economic, and security environment of the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century will be shaped in very large part by the interrelationships among the United States, Japan, China, and Russia. To the extent these four nations can cooperate, a generally benign environment can develop in which the challenges sure to develop in the region can be managed. Conversely, tensions and conflict among the four will have a profoundly destabilizing impact regionally, if not globally.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: Russia, Japan, China, Asia, Northeast Asia
  • Author: Alan L. Gropman
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: At a dinner during the Teheran Conference in December 1943, Joseph Stalin praised United States manufacturing: I want to tell you from the Russian point of view, what the President and the United States have done to win the war. The most important things in this war are machines. The United States has proven that it can turn out from 8,000 to 10,000 airplanes per month. Russia can only turn out, at most. 3,000 airplanes a month .... The United States, therefore, is a country of machines. Without the use of those machines, through Lend-Lease, we would lose this war.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Vietnam
  • Author: Steven Philip Kramer, Irene Kyriakopoulos
  • Publication Date: 03-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: When political observers talk about European security, they invariably refer to the challenges Western Europe faces on its peripheries from a renationalized Russia, conflicts in the Balkans, and Islamic fundamentalism in North Africa. Rarely do they imagine that the greatest dangers to the new Europe may come from within, that the kind of stability Europe has enjoyed since World War II could be merely a passing chapter in history, not a transcendence of history. Without suggesting that there is necessarily a worst case ending, this study will argue that there is indeed a series of crises converging on post-Cold War Europe that threaten its stability and that need to be addressed by European policy makers and taken into account by Americans.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, War
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, North Africa
  • Author: Mark Roberts
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: In her book, States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China (1979), revolutionary authority and sociologist Theda Skocpol states: The repressive state organizations of the prerevolutionary regime have to be weakened before mass revolutionary action can succeed, or even emerge. Indeed, historically, mass rebellious action has not been able, in itself, to overcome state repression. Instead, military pressures from abroad … have been necessary to undermine repression.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Religion
  • Political Geography: Russia, China, Middle East, France
  • Author: M.E. Ahrari, James Beal
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The dismantlement of the Soviet Union also brought about the liberation of six Central Asian Muslim republics—Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan (figure 1). Although Azerbaijan is part of the Caucasus region, it is included in this study because: The independence of that country, like that of the Central Asian states, was brought about as a result of the dismantlement of the Soviet Union. Azerbaijan, like its Central Asian counterparts, is a Muslim state, and faces similar politico-economic problems. Azerbaijan's conflict with Armenia involving Nagorno-Karabkh reminds one of a number of conflicts in the Central Asian region. These include a seething ethnic conflict in Kazakhstan (involving the Khazaks and the Slavs), the ongoing civil war in Tajikistan "along ethnic, national, and religious lines (since the Russian forces are "also involved in this civil war), and the ethnic conflict in the Fargana valley that cuts across the borders of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Like the economies of its Central Asian neighbors, the Azeri economy was largely dependent on the economy of the former Soviet Union. Consequently, like its other neighbors, Azerbaijan is also busy establishing economic self-sufficiency, along with strengthening its religious political, linguistic, and ethnic identities.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Religion
  • Political Geography: Central Asia, Middle East, Soviet Union
  • Author: John Leslie, Paul M. Lubeck, Georgi Derlugian, Elaine Thomas, Maria Todorova, Philip G. Roeder, Andrew Bell-Flailkoff, Nirvikar Singh, Daniel Chirot, Beverly Crawford, Ronnie Lipschutz
  • Publication Date: 03-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: This paper looks at the relationship between the rise of Islamic radicalism and changes in the global political and economic order. The author suggests that the major independent variable explaining whether Islamic radicalism can take power in a given state is the degree to which the state is able to articulate and then successfully pursue a national agenda. The success of such an agenda is in turn dependent upon the position of the state in the context of the global order. Thus, the author makes the claim that the creation of an integrated, global market exacerbates rather than suppresses Islamic radicalism because it interferes with the ability of any given state to pursue its own agenda. Economic liberalization weakens state authority, exposes its citizens to global competition and creates social and economic dislocation, providing an opportunity for Islamic radicals to position themselves as an alternative to further global integration.
  • Topic: Security, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Nationalism, Sovereignty