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501. Fear Athens Less and Washington More

Author:
Irwin M. Stelzer
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
There comes a tide in the affairs of men And the one sweeping from Greece, across Europe and into the United States is washing away support for austerity, in some cases reinforcing opposition to it, largely from the Left. President Obama is delighted at this support for his refusal to cut spending in the face of mounting deficits, and the Republicans are feeling beleaguered at what they see as the disinterment of the body of works of John Maynard Keynes. No longer must the President sit at G8 meetings (in this weekend's case, G7 since Vladimir Putin finds it necessary to stay at home to deal with an unpleasant spate of dissent) and hear only the voice of Germany's iron Chancellor, Angela Merkel, extolling the virtues of thrift, austerity and balanced budgets. Now he has France's new socialist President, François Hollande, to preach the virtues of spending, "the indispensable stimulation of the economy", and, even better, high taxes-- up to 75% on incomes in excess of $1.35 million per year, which makes the team of Buffett and Obama mere pikers at the soak-the-rich game. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed the administration's delight at Hollande's "different political approach Different voices may be louder on growth than they have been It's been our view that there needed to be adjustments to austerity, so that there could be growth, both for economic reasons and for political reasons President Obama and our economic team have been saying for some time that growth had to factor into a European recovery." Take that, Mrs. Merkel and all you Republicans who want to cut entitlement spending and retain the Bush tax cuts that benefit "millionaires and billionaires", Obama shorthand for families earning more than $250,000 per year.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Budget
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, Greece, and France

502. Future Marketplace: Free and Fair

Author:
Hanns Kuttner
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
In any market, buyers seek out the seller who offers the lowest prices and best terms. Government can distort markets by decreasing or increasing prices through subsidies, taxes or regulation. Compared to a free market, distortion means different sellers get the sale and at different prices.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Science and Technology

503. How Safe Is the U.S. Safe Haven?

Author:
Irwin M. Stelzer
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This version of the glorious sonnet composed by Emma Lazarus in 1883, and later engraved on a bronze plaque installed on the Statue of Liberty, calling the world's huddled masses to our shores, captures what it means these days to be a safe haven. Just as America proved to be such a safe haven for immigrants in the latter 19th and early 20th centuries, it is now seen as a safe haven for wealth attempting to escape Europe's tax collectors and financial chaos and recession in Europe, and for foreign central banks newly enamored of the dollar.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Immigration, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Germany

504. A Rapidly Changing Energy World, Or Perhaps Not

Author:
Irwin M. Stelzer
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Slow growth here and in China, and recession in Europe are reducing demand for oil. Inventories in the U.S. are at a 22-year high. The Federal Reserve Board's QEs that pumped paper money into the economy and drove up the nominal price of oil have come to an end. And the twelve OPEC oil cartelists, who between them supply 40% of the world's oil, are producing 1.6 million barrels in excess of the agreed daily quota of 30 million barrels. As a result, U.S. benchmark crude oil prices are now closer to $80 per barrel than to the $110 they reached only four months ago.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

505. Inheriting Recessions

Author:
Tim Kane
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Three of the last six U.S. presidents have inherited a recessionary economy: Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama. Let's define "inheriting a recession" as meaning that on the date a president is sworn into office, the economy is technically still in recession or enters one within a few months. Most economists would agree that presidents have little short-term control over the economy, but that their fiscal policies can be implemented quickly and affect macroeconomic performance after the first year. Reagan, inaugurated in January 1981, actually endured a double-dip recession-one that had been raging since early 1980 and a second that hit in July 1981-but the economy experienced a strong and sustained recovery that began in November 1982 during his second year in the White House. Bush was inaugurated in January 2001, and the economy entered recession just weeks later. Obama entered office in January 2009, like Reagan, after the United States had been in recession for a full year.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

506. Financial Reform after the Crisis: An Early Assessment

Author:
Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper aims to take stock of global efforts towards financial reform since the start of the financial crisis in 2007–08, and to provide a synthetic (if simplified) picture of their status as of January 2012. Underlying dynamics are described and analyzed both at the global level (particularly G-20, IMF, and FSB) and in individual jurisdictions, as well as the impact the crisis has had on these regions. The possible next steps of financial reform are then reviewed, including: the ongoing crisis management in Europe, the new emphasis on macroprudential approaches, the challenges posed by globally integrated financial firms, the implementation of harmonized global standards, and the links between financial systems and growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

507. Pharmaceutical Price Regulation: Macro-Level Evidence from China between 1997 and 2008

Author:
Qiong Zhang, Binzhen Wu, and Xue Qiao
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This paper uses macro-level data between 1997 and 2008 to evaluate the effects of China's pharmaceutical price regulations. We find that these regulations had short-run effects on medicine price indexes, reducing them by less than 0.5 percentage points. The effects could have been slightly reinforced when these regulations were imposed on more medicines. However, these regulations failed to reduce household health expenditures and the average profitability of the pharmaceutical industry, and firms on the break-even edge were worse off. Finally, although these regulations have no significant effects on the price of substitutes or complements for medicines, they increased expensive medicine imports.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Human Welfare, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China

508. The political economy of the fisheries sector in Uganda: ruling elites, implementation costs and industry interests

Author:
Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, Mesharch Katusiimeh, and Tom Mwebaze
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper sets out to explain policies, implementation arrangements and results (PIRs) in Uganda's fisheries sector. Industry actors wanted to be able to keep up with European standards in order to survive in the chilled and frozen fillet export industry. They put pressure on ruling elites to support the establishment of effective hygiene and testing procedures. This helped the fishing industry succeed to an extent that helped create interests in the status quo. Fishermen, their dependents, and the fish processors all wanted to maintain a high level of fish catches. It was politically costly for ruling elites to enforce fisheries management because strict enforcement was unpopular with fishermen, as well as with many fishermen and security agents who benefitted from illegal fishing. Therefore, the success was not maintained: a pocket of efficiency was established with regard to hygiene and testing, but not with regard to enforcing fisheries management. Overfishing and the near collapse of the fishing sector were the results.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and Europe

509. How Indonesia Sees ASEAN and the World: A Cursory Survey of the Social Studies and History textbooks of Indonesia, from Primary to Secondary Level

Author:
Farish A. Noor
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Over the past few years Indonesia's political landscape has altered somewhat as a result of the rise of new nationalist NGOs and mass movements, that have called upon the Indonesian government to take a stronger stand when defending Indonesia's national identity and position in ASEAN. Observers of Indonesian politics have asked if this marks the rise of hyper-nationalism in the country, and how this may affect Indonesia's relationship with its ASEAN neighbours. This paper looks at how Indonesia's school textbooks present the other countries and societies of ASEAN to ordinary school children in Indonesia, and looks at how Indonesian identity is framed in relation to the other countries around it. It argues that Indonesian school textbooks do indeed give a rudimentary but objective and correct view of the other countries in ASEAN, and that the rise of nationalism among some groups in Indonesia today cannot be attributed to the education that millions of Indonesian students are given on an annual basis.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Labor Issues, and Intellectual Property/Copyright
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

510. The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) Negotiations: Overview and Prospects

Author:
Deborah Elms and C. L. Lim
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a trade agreement currently under negotiation between nine countries in three continents, including Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States and Vietnam. In late 2011 three additional countries--Japan, Canada and Mexico--announced their intention to join as well. The TPP has always been called a "high quality, 21st century" agreement that covers a range of topics not always found in free trade agreements. This includes not just trade in goods, services and investment, but also intellectual property rights, government procurement, labor, environment, regulations, and small and medium enterprises. This paper traces the complex negotiations and evolution of the talks since the early 2000s to the present.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Labor Issues, and Intellectual Property/Copyright
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Malaysia, Canada, Israel, Vietnam, Latin America, Australia, Australia/Pacific, Mexico, Singapore, Chile, Peru, New Zealand, and Brunei

511. Still a Better Deal: Private Investment vs. Social Security

Author:
Michael Tanner
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Opponents of allowing younger workers to privately invest a portion of their Social Security taxes through personal accounts have long pointed to the supposed riskiness of private investment. The volatility of private capital markets over the past several years, and especially recent declines in the stock market, have seemed to bolster their argument.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

512. Dynamics of Inflation "Herding": Decoding India's Inflationary Process

Author:
Urjit R. Patel and Gangadhar Darbha
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Compared to immediately preceding years, that is, its own recent history, India's inflation became unhinged (thereby reversing creditable performance) from as far back as 2006. The paper puts forward an empirical framework to analyze the time series and cross-sectional dynamics of inflation in India using a large panel of disaggregated sector prices for the time period, 1994/95 to 2010/11. This allows us to rigorously explore issues that have been, at best, loosely posed in policy debates such as diffusion or comovement of inflation across sectors, role of common and idiosyncratic factors in explaining variation, persistence, importance of food and energy price changes to the overall inflation process, and contrast the recent experience with the past. We find, interalia, that the current period of high inflation is more cross-sectionally diffused, and driven by increasingly persistent common factors in non-food and non-energy sectors compared to that in the 1990s; this is likely to make it more difficult for anti-inflationary policy to gain traction this time round compared to the past. The paper has also introduced a novel measure of inflation, viz., Pure Inflation Gauges (PIGs) in the Indian context by decomposing price movements into those on account of: (1) aggregate shocks that have equiproportional effects on all sector prices; (2) aggregated relative price effects; and (3) sector-specific and idiosyncratic shocks. If PIGs, in conjunction with our other findings, for example, on persistence had been used as a measure of underlying (pure) inflationary pressures, the monetary authorities may not have been sanguine regarding the timeliness of initiating anti-inflationary policies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

513. Can Producer Associations Make Agriculture Sustainable? Evidence from Farmer Development Centers in India

Author:
Raj M. Desai and Shareen Joshi
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the impact of the Self- Employed Women's Association's (SEWA) farmer development center (FDC) initiative across five farming districts in Gujarat, India. The initiative provided a mix of training, information provisions, access to farming inputs, risk mitigation, and output. Controlling for a range of individual-specific, household, and village level factors, we find that SEWA membership primarily raised awareness of available opportunities among its participants, linked women to the financial sector and to diversified employment opportunities, including non-farm work. There is also evidence that the program's impact varied depending on the participants' socio-economic background. The poorest members experienced higher farm and non-farm incomes, increased food consumption, improved household and farm productivity, more self-employment opportunities, a greater likelihood of opening a bank account, higher crop harvests, and greater food security. These estimates suggest that the major comparative advantage of FDCs lies in improving access to credit and in expanding access to useful information.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
India and Gujarat

514. Africa: open for business The potential, challenges and risks

Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Africa is drawing increasing attention, not only from the perspective of businesses based in China and Europe, but also from operators in Africa itself. In particular, closer economic ties between Africa and China have been covered extensively by the media recently—with fairly mixed reviews. This paper highlights the potential, challenges and risks for doing business in Africa over the next few years.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Europe

515. Eschewing Choice: Ukraine's Strategy on Russia and the EU

Author:
Elena Gnedina and Evghenia Sleptsova
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Ukraine has long been castigated for its noncommittal attitude to cooperation with the EU, this being part of its 'multi-vector' foreign policy. Such a policy was widely attributed to the failings of domestic elites, which delay reform for fear of losing rents and power. This CEPS Working Document suggests, however, that the recent setback in EU-Ukraine relations highlights more complex reasons behind this. First, it asserts that a pro-European vector is not a self-evident choice for Ukraine, which is economically interdependent with both Russia and the EU. Second, it finds that the economic crisis has made the EU less attractive in the short term. In good times business was looking to Europe for opportunities to develop. But in times of crisis, it is looking to Russia for cheap resources to survive. Despite these unfavourable short-term trends, the authors conclude that an association agreement with the EU stands out as the only alternative that promises to put the shaky Ukrainian economy back on track towards long-term sustainable economic growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

516. The EU's Conditionality Policy: A New Strategy to Achieve Compliance

Author:
Fabienne Zwagemakers
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Through the inclusion of human rights and democracy clauses in the trade and association agreements of its common external trade policy, the European Union seeks to promote and transmit the values of human rights, democracy, and the rule of law globally. However, trade partners from the developing world often feel that these clauses offend their national sovereignty, and sometimes resort to alternative agreements offered by countries notorious for cutting corners. This working paper offers an assessment of the motives for non-compliance and sketches out how the EU could engender compliance. The paper concludes that there is a pivotal role to be played by education, civil society, business, and political parties in the nexus between economic growth, democracy, and the respect for human rights. The EU must target these factors directly, as they largely determine the domestic enforcement of HR clauses. In addition, the EU should develop a human rights strategy coordinated with global, regional, and local actors.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, India, and Sri Lanka

517. The structure and dynamics of cut flower export markets from Kenya and Ethiopia

Author:
Brian D. Perry
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This report is part of a broad study of trade preferences and market conditions between various developing countries and Norway, conducted under the auspices of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Norway's Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) was established in 1971. From 2002 Norway has provided duty and quota free market access (DQF-MA) for all goods from all the 50 least developed countries (LDCs3). In 2005 the results of a review of Norway's GSP were published (Melchior, 20054), which showed that agricultural products from developing countries other than LDCs were still subject to substantial tariffs, and this contrasted dramatically with advantages given to European trading partners. As a result, from 1 January 2008 changes were made to Norway's GSP5. An important adjustment was that 14 low income countries that were not part of the LDC group were included in the provision for duty and quota-free market access (DQFMA). Consequently, 64 low income countries now benefit from DQFMA to Norway for all their goods.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Norway, and Ethiopia

518. A case study of Norway's beef trade from developing countries

Author:
Arne Melchior, Karl M. Rich, and Brian D. Perry
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Norway has traditionally operated a rather closed, managed market for beef importsnder WTO-auspices, Norway operates a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for beef that allows the entry of a small amount of product at a relatively low tariff rate, with higher rates of duty imposed on imports over the quota. There are several different TRQs of relevance to boneless beef. The main quota is the WTO quota, which allows for the annual import of 1,084 tons of frozen beef at an in-quota duty rate of NOK 33,60/kg for boneless cuts. Countries with ordinary GSP access receive a 30 percent discount on this duty, so that the in-quota GSP tariff is NOK 23,52/kg. The WTO quota is administered once per year by an auction system – table 6 provides a list of the prices and volumes for the 2011 WTO quota. For imports outside the WTO quota, the duty is 119,01 NOK/kg, with GSP countries paying 10 percent less at NOK 107,11/kg.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Norway

519. The Caribbean Maritime Transportation Sector: Achieving Sustainability through Efficiency

Author:
Fritz H. Pinnock and Ibrahim A. Ajagunna
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The port structure of the Caribbean has been heavily influenced by global change over the last 200 years. The historical context — colonialism, piracy and slavery — meant that ports were originally designed to serve colonial interests. The advent of containerization and globalization have dramatically changed cargo shipping, while at the same time, cruise tourism has increased significantly — the Caribbean accounts for 50 percent of the global market — which means that cargo and cruise ships now compete for limited berth space.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Post Colonialism, Science and Technology, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:
Caribbean

520. Women's economic opportunity 2012: A global index and ranking from the Economist Intelligence Unit

Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Women are a key driver of economic growth. In the second half of the 20th century, the entry of women into the workforce helped to propel most of the world's developed economies. In the United States, an expanded pool of workers—from the emergence of the baby-boom generation and the rising number of women in the workplace—added nearly 2 percentage points a year to economic growth. Since 1995, the narrowing gap between male and female employment has accounted for a quarter of Europe's annual GDP growth. Today, women in the developing world are poised to have a similar impact—if they can be properly educated, equipped and empowered.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Gender Issues, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States

521. The Underachiever: Ukraine's Economy Since 1991

Author:
Pekka Sutela
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
When Ukraine became independent in 1991, there were expectations that it would in the near future become a wealthy free market democracy and a full member of the European and Euro-Atlantic communities. The largest country geographically wholly European, and the fifth-biggest European nation by size of population, it was hoped, would become a member of the European Union (EU), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Atlantic Ocean

522. Transportation and Communication Infrastructure in Latin America: Lessons from Asia

Author:
Barbara Kotschwar
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In Latin America, inadequate transportation infrastructure has been identified as an increasingly important impediment to the region's further integration in global trade and a significant factor preventing countries from properly taking advantage of the multitude of regional, plurilateral, and bilateral trade agreements signed in the past decade and a half. This paper examines transport and communications infrastructure initiatives in Latin American and Asian regional trade arrangements and finds several lessons Asia can teach Latin America.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Communications, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Asia and Latin America

523. Chinese Investment in Latin American Resources: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Author:
Theodore H. Moran, Julia Muir, and Barbara Kotschwar
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
China's need for vast amounts of minerals to sustain its high economic growth rate has led Chinese investors to acquire stakes in natural resource companies, extend loans to mining and petroleum investors, and write long-term procurement contracts for oil and minerals in Africa, Latin America, Australia, Canada, and other resource-rich regions. These efforts to procure raw materials might be exacerbating the problems of strong demand; "locking up" natural resource supplies, gaining preferential access to available output, and extending control over the world's extractive industries. But Chinese investment need not have a zero-sum effect if Chinese procurement arrangements expand, diversify, and make more competitive the global supplier system. Previous Peterson Institute research (see Moran 2010) and new research undertaken in this paper, show that the majority of Chinese investments and procurement arrangements serve to help diversify and make more competitive the portion of the world natural resource base located in Latin America. For a more comprehensive analysis, the authors conduct a structured comparison of four Peruvian mines with foreign ownership: two Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development-based, and two Chinese. They examine what conditions or policy measures are most effective in inducing Chinese investors to adopt international industry standards and best-practices, and which are not. They distill from this case study some lessons for other countries in Latin America, Africa, and elsewhere that intend to use Chinese investment to develop their extractive sectors: first, that financial markets bring accountability; second, that the host country regulatory environment makes a significant difference; and third, that foreign investment is a catalyst for change.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
China, Canada, Latin America, and Australia

524. Maritime Transport and Destabilizing Commodity Flows

Author:
Hugh Griffiths and Michael Jenks
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Maritime transport dominates international trade in licit and illicit goods. It accounts for the majority of seizures and suspect shipments of military equipment and dual-use goods (goods that have both civilian and potential military applications, including in the development of weapons of mass destruction and missiles) originating from or destined for embargoed states such as Iran and North Korea. It is the primary means of delivering shipments of conventional arms to actors involved in conflicts in c. Sea transport plays a major role in global flows of narcotics and associated chemical precursors. It is also the main mode of transport for other illicit and potentially destabilizing commodities, such as smuggled tobacco, oil and counterfeit goods.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Communications, Maritime Commerce, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Africa and North Korea

525. Socio-Psychological Motives of Socially Responsible Investors

Author:
Julia M. Puaschunder
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The 2008/09 World Financial Crisis underlined the importance of social responsibility for the sustainable functioning of economic markets. Heralding an age of novel heterodox economic thinking, the call for integrating social facets into mainstream economic models has reached unprecedented momentum. Financial Social Responsibility bridges the finance world with society in socially conscientious investments. Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) integrates corporate social responsibility in investment choices. In the aftermath of the 2008/09 World Financial Crisis, SRI is an idea whose time has come. Socially conscientious asset allocation styles add to expected yield and volatility of securities social, environmental and institutional considerations. In screenings, shareholder advocacy, community investing, social venture capital funding and political divestiture, socially conscientious investors hone their interest to align financial profit maximization strategies with social concerns. In a long history of classic finance theory having blacked out moral and ethical considerations of investment decision making, our knowledge of socio-economic motives for SRI is limited. Apart from economic profitability calculus and strategic leadership advantages, this article sheds light on socio-psychological motives underlying SRI. Altruism, need for innovation and entrepreneurial zest alongside utility derived from social status enhancement prospects and transparency may steer investors' social conscientiousness. Self-enhancement and social expression of future-oriented SRI options may supplement profit maximization goals. Theoretically introducing potential SRI motives serves as a first step towards an empirical validation of Financial Social Responsibility to improve the interplay of financial markets and the real economy. The pursuit of crisis-robust and sustainable financial markets through strengthened Financial Social Responsibility targets at creating lasting societal value for this generation and the following.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Sociology, and Financial Crisis

526. Bribe Payers Index 2011

Author:
Deborah Hardoon and Finn Heinrich
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Transparency International
Abstract:
This report presents the fifth Transparency International Bribe Payers Index. The index ranks 28 of the world\'s largest economies according to the perceived likelihood of companies from these countries to pay bribes abroad. It is based on the views of business executives as captured by Transparency International\'s 2011 Bribe Payers Survey. The countries and territories ranked in the Index cover all regions of the world and represent almost 80 per cent of the total world outflow of goods, services and investments.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Law Enforcement

527. Energy Risks in North Africa and the Middle East

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Any estimate of energy risk is highly uncertain. The reality can vary sharply according to national and global economic conditions, politics, war, natural disasters, discoveries of new reserves, advances in technology, unanticipated new regulations and environmental issues, and a host of other factors.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

528. Myanmar: White elephant or new tiger economy?

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
The new government in Myanmar has made a series of liberalising gestures over the past year, raising hopes that it is serious about meaningful political reform. Coming after national elections in November 2010, the release from house-arrest of the pro-democracy icon, Aung San Suu Kyi, and by-elections in 2012, many observers are concluding that Myanmar is finally embarking on a process of genuine democratisation. Aung San Suu Kyi is among those who have expressed optimism over future changes in the country, with her confidence bolstered by the release of hundreds of political prisoners in recent months. As ties with Western governments slowly thaw, there is now a high probability that sanctions and other restrictions on trade and investment will be lifted over the next year or so, and foreign investors are taking note of the opportunities that could soon present themselves.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Asia

529. Rising Democracies and the Arab Awakening: Implications for Global Democracy and Human Rights

Author:
Ted Piccone and Emily Alinikoff
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
As the emerging global order takes shape, debate is growing more intense around the trajectory of the rising powers and what their ascendency to positions of regional and international influence means for the United States, its traditional allies, and global governance more broadly. Commentary about these rising powers— often referred to in a generic way as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) but actually encompassing a dozen or so countries largely represented in the G-20—ranges from alarmist to sanguine. Pessimists argue that China, with its impressive economic growth and increasingly global reach, is well-positioned to challenge the United States' role of global superpower and to weaken the commitment of other rising powers, and various international organizations, to liberal values. More optimistic analysts insist that the rise of middle powers, most of which are democracies of varying stripes, bodes well for the world: millions are being lifted out of poverty, rule of law is taking hold and the international system is bound to be a more inclusive, representative one.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Globalization, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Arabia

530. Incentives for Life: Cash-on-Delivery Aid for Tobacco Control in Developing Countries

Author:
Amanda Glassman and Thomas J. Bollyky
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Fewer people are smoking in the United States, Europe, and most of the developing world. Excise taxes, bans on smoking in public places, and graphic health warnings are achieving such dramatic reductions in tobacco use in developed countries that a recent Citigroup Bank investment analysis speculated that smoking could virtually disappear in wealthy countries over the next thirty to fifty years.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Gender Issues, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

531. When Voicelessness Meets Speechlessness – Struggling for Equity in Chinese-Ghanaian Employment Relations

Author:
Karsten Giese and Alena Thiel
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In this article Chinese-Ghanaian employment relations are analyzed using the concepts of foreignness, the psychological contract, equity, and cross-cultural communication. Based on a qualitative study conducted in Accra, Ghana, we discuss the labor market in general and introduce the conditions under which Chinese sojourners operate their family trade businesses in the city. After discussing the phenomenon of Ghanaian employment within Chinese trade companies from a theoretical perspective, we explain how Chinese employers' and Ghanaian employees' culturally based perceptions of employment relations are contradictory and prone to conflict. We then show how, under the condition of the employers' foreignness, Ghanaian employees perceive their psychological contracts as being violated and Chinese employers regard the equity of exchange relations as distorted. We discuss how Ghanaian employees cope with this situation by means of voice, silence, retreat or destruction, while Chinese employers, who lack both sufficient language skills and effective sanctions, choose to endure perceived distortions of equity and in some cases ultimately terminate employment relations when inadequate cross-cultural communication results in a failure to mediate conflicts.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Ghana

532. China's Economic Restructuring: Role of Agriculture

Author:
Zhang Hongzhou
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
While China has achieved extraordinary economic success in the past decades, its economic structural risks have increased significantly as well. As Chinese top leaders have repeatedly emphasized, economic restructuring is a critical task facing China's economy. To restructure China's economy, the country needs to find a new engine for growth to replace the export and investment led growth model, address social inequality and protect the environment. The key approaches identified by the Chinese government include urbanization, upgrading the manufacturing sector and developing strategic industries. However, through in-depth analysis, this paper finds that the effectiveness of these measures remains in question as they fail to target at all the root causes of China's economic problems.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
China and Israel

533. America's Voluntary Standards System--A "Best Practice" Model for Innovation Policy?

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
For its proponents, America's voluntary standards system is a "best practice" model for innovation policy. Foreign observers however are concerned about possible drawbacks of a standards system that is largely driven by the private sector. There are doubts, especially in Europe and China, whether the American system can balance public and private interests in times of extraordinary national and global challenges to innovation.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and Governance
Political Geography:
China, America, and Europe

534. Filling the Values Vacuum: The Role of Western Business in Emerging Markets

Author:
James P. Cain
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Dubai markets itself as the place where “the developed world and the emerging world meet”. Judging by the diversity amongst the almost 500,000 visitors to the Dubai Mall one recent April Saturday, the label appears to fit. Teeming with Asians, Indians, Eastern and Western Europeans, West Africans, neighbors from the Gulf and even a few Americans, the mostly under-30 crowds displayed the commercial frenzy that has been in short supply in the West in recent years. Exploring the ground level of the Mall, just across from the famous Dubai fountains and the 163-story Burj Khalifa, I was delighted to discover that the most popular and packed restaurant concept did not showcase a Mediterranean, Italian, or French moniker but a uniquely American one—Texas Roadhouse. Hand-cut steaks, Texas-size rib combos, and country dinners filled patron’s plates while the line-dancing wait staff that propelled this Kentucky-based chain to popularity in the U.S. a few years ago delighted hungry customers this April afternoon. As growth, urbanization, and megacity development proceed in Asia, Latin America, the former Soviet states, the Middle East and even Africa, Western consumer and retail brands are being met with surprisingly robust popularity. At the recent Gulf Food show not far from the Dubai Mall, a medium-sized U.S. company was awarded “World’s Best New Halal Food”. There is an immensely important lesson here: as Western governments curb spending on foreign aid, development assistance and commercial programs, a “values vacuum” is developing into which institutions, cultures and governments are stepping to promote their own ideologies and cultural values, or lack thereof. Already the largest trading partner in many South American countries, China built and paid for a $105 million soccer stadium in Costa Rica, but only after government officials waived the country’s tough labor laws. Russian companies are gobbling up natural resources in Africa as well as energy, infrastructure and telecommunications assets in Ukraine and Kazakhstan. With influence from Venezuela and its ally Iran, the newly formed “Community of Latin American and Caribbean States” proudly excludes America and Canada.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

535. Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Author:
Etienne Gagnon, Benjamin R. Mandel, and Robert J. Vigfusson
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
A large body of empirical work has found that exchange rate movements have only modest effects on inflation. However, the response of an import price index to exchange rate movements may be underestimated because some import price changes are missed when constructing the index. We investigate downward biases that arise when items experiencing a price change are especially likely to exit or to enter the index. We show that, in theoretical pricing models, entry and exit have different implications for the timing and size of these biases. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) microdata, we derive empirical bounds on the magnitude of these biases and construct alternative price indexes that are less subject to selection effects. Our analysis suggests that the biases induced by selective exits and entries are modest over typical forecast horizons. As such, the empirical evidence continues to support the conclusion that exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices is low.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, Imports, and Price
Political Geography:
Global Focus

536. International Relative Price Levels: A Look Under the Hood

Author:
Jaime Marquez, Charles Thomas, and Corinne Land
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines the structure of international relative price levels using purchasing power parities (PPP) at the product-level from the 2005 World Bank’s International Comparison Program (ICP). Our examination is motivated by questions arising from two applications using economy-wide PPPs: the measurement of real effective exchange rates (REERs) and the correlation between prices and development. Specifically, how would our view on competitiveness be affected if one were to use PPP measures that exclude non-tradable categories? Is it the case that an increase in per-capita income raises the prices of non-tradable categories? These questions are not new. What is new here is the use of relative price levels (as opposed to indexes) at the product level for 144 countries that differ greatly in their level of development.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, Strategic Competition, and Price
Political Geography:
Global Focus

537. A Northern Tiger? Canada's Economic and Fiscal Renaissance and its Implications for the United States

Author:
Jeremy A. Leonard
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
As the United States struggles to find a politically acceptable and economically sensible solution to its severe fiscal crisis, hidden in plain sight just North of the 49th parallel is an example that ought to be considered more carefully. Quietly, but steadily, under governments of all political stripes, Canada has profoundly re-structured its economy, gotten its fiscal house in order, created a competitive business tax environment, and come into its own as a strong economic player in North America and beyond.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and Canada

538. A greener shade of grey: A special report on renewable energy in China

Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate China's energy mix, although renewable energy will carve out a bigger role. The large market for clean technology that this provides will give succour to firms in the sector—those, that is, that are able to survive their present difficulties.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
China

539. Watching a dragon's egg hatch: The makings of a Sinocentric world?

Author:
Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
As China's hard power is growing, the Party-state is keen to construct a new narrative which legitimizes China's position as a world leader also from the soft power perspective. It has even been suggested that a Chinese international relations theory or model will inevitably emerge as a consequence of China's growing role on the world stage on the one hand and the rise of traditional values in China on the other.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Power Politics, and Culture
Political Geography:
China and Israel

540. Capital Requirements under Basel III in Latin America: The Cases of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez, Arturo J. Galindo, and Marielle del Valle
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
A number of banks in developed countries argue that the new capital requirements under Basel III are too stringent and that implementing the proposed regulation would require raising large amounts of capital, with adverse consequences on credit and the cost of finance. In contrast, many emerging market economies claim that their systems are adequately capitalized and that they have no problems with implementing the new capital requirements. This paper conducts a detailed calculation of capital held by the banks in four Latin American countries—known as the Andean countries: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru—and assesses the potential effects of full compliance with the capital requirements under Basel III. The conclusions are positive and show that while capital would decline somewhat in these countries after they make adjustments to comply with the new definition of capital under Basel III, they would still meet the Basel III recommendations on capital requirements. More importantly, these countries would hold Tier capital to risk-weighted-asset ratios significantly above the 8.5 percent requirement under Basel III. That is, not only the quantity, but also the quality of capital is adequate in the countries under study. While encouraging, these results should not be taken as a panacea since the new regulations are only effective if coupled with appropriate risk management and supervision mechanisms to control the build-up of excessive risk-taking by banks. Further research into these areas is needed for a complete assessment of the strength of banks in the Andean countries.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Colombia, Latin America, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia

541. Maritime Security Sector Reform

Author:
John F. Sandoz
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Maritime security sector reform (MSSR) is a component of security sector reform (SSR). SSR is the complex task of transforming the institutions and organizations that deal directly with security threats to the state and its citizens. MSSR applies the same concepts to the maritime domain. It consists of comprehensive actions taken by littoral countries and a range of partners to improve the security, safety, and economic viability of maritime spaces by improving governance, infrastructure, and law enforcement capacity, creating a broader approach to SSR on the global stage. The globally connected economy relies on the oceans and adjoining littorals for fishing, access to natural resources, and the movement of much of the world's commerce. Effective governance of maritime spaces has become essential for both economic growth and regional security. Continued population growth in the coastal regions, or littorals, strains the maritime infrastructure and the capacity to govern, resulting in unmet security challenges from competing countries, transnational criminal organizations, and insurgent and terrorist groups that exploit instability in the maritime domain. MSSR may be undertaken to strengthen existing maritime governance, respond to specific instability or threats, or restore governance following conflict or natural disasters. MSSR involves a whole-of-government process to identify and address specific problems through collaborative approaches that coordinate the contributions of internal and external organizations. The MSSR process begins with a multidisciplinary assessment, ideally performed by representatives from private and public institutions. It must take into account a country's history, culture, and the aspirations of its citizens and government. MSSR is not the imposition of external organizations, plans, or processes. The U.S. government's role in MSSR, while often significant, must be closely coordinated with efforts by the United Nations, donor nations, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector. Achieving this level of coordination may be the most challenging aspect of successful MSSR.
Topic:
Security, International Trade and Finance, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:
United States and United Nations

542. India and Europe in a Multipolar World

Author:
Bernd von Muenchow-Pohl
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The image of India as an emerging power is widely held, but there is equal reason to see the European Union as an emerging power, too, even at the risk of raising eyebrows. Like India, the EU seeks to become a global political player on top of being a great economic power. As the global power dynamic shifts, both are trying to define their roles in an emerging multipolar world. The question arises whether closer cooperation can help the EU and India to achieve their ambitions. Though they have committed to a strategic partnership, in its present state the EU-India relationship has been likened to a “loveless arranged marriage.” With each increasingly absorbed by domestic problems, the prospects for closer ties are fading, notwithstanding the opportunities that would be lost.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Power Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, India, and Asia

543. America's Voluntary Standards System—A "Best Practice" Model for Innovation Policy?

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
For its proponents, America's voluntary standards system is a "best practice" model for innovation policy. Foreign observers however are concerned about possible drawbacks of a standards system that is largely driven by the private sector. There are doubts, especially in Europe and China, whether the American system can balance public and private interests in times of extraordinary national and global challenges to innovation.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

544. Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China-North Korea Integration

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country's foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although we cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange. Little trust is evident beyond the relationships among Chinese and North Korean state-owned enterprises. Formal networks and dispute settlement mechanisms are weak and do not appear to have consequences for relational contracting. Rather, firms rely on personal ties for identifying counterparties and resolving disputes. The weakness of formal institutions implies that the growth in exchange does not conform with the expectations of the engagement model and may prove self-limiting. The results also cast doubt that integration between China and North Korea, at least as it is currently proceeding, will foster reform and opening.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and North Korea

545. The Microeconomics of North-South Korean Cross-Border Integration

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Economic integration between North and South Korea occurs through three modalities: traditional arm's-length trade and investment, processing on commission (POC) trade, and operations within the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC). In order, these three modalities are characterized by decreasing exposure of South Korean firms to North Korean policy and infrastructure. Through a survey of 200 South Korean firms operating in North Korea we find that these modalities of exchange matter greatly in terms of implied risk. For example, firms operating in the KIC are able to transact on significantly looser financial terms than those outside it. We find that direct and indirect South Korean public policy interventions influence these different modalities of exchange and thus impact entry, profitability, and sustainability of South Korean business activities in the North. In effect, the South Korean government has substituted relatively strong South Korean institutions for the relatively weak Northern ones in the KIC, thus socializing risk. As a result, the level and type of cross-border integration observed in the survey is very much a product of South Korean public policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Israel and Korea

546. Competitiveness in Central America: The Road to Sustained Growth and Poverty Reduction

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez, José Luis Guasch, and Veronica Gonzales
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Over the last decade, Central American countries—Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua—have made significant progress in social and economic areas. In particular, they have stabilized their economies after decades of civil war and the economic volatility that plagued the region through the 1990s. Most countries in Central America have taken important steps to improve their business climates, particularly by enhancing macroeconomic stability, improving the soundness of their financial systems, making improvements in infrastructure services and trade facilitation, reducing red tape, and simplifying their regulatory and tax frameworks. As a result, before the 2008 financial crisis, GDP per capita in Central America grew at an average rate of 3 percent per year from 2003 to 2008, which, albeit modest, was the most robust and stable period of growth the region had witnessed since the early 1990s. However, despite this achievement, Central American economies are still lagging behind the rest of Latin America and other middle-income countries by per-capita growth rates of 0.5 to 2 percentage points. Even more worrying are the levels of poverty and inequality, which show the lack of inclusiveness in their growth models. Moreover, recent developments in the region show a number of red flags that are weakening macroeconomic and democratic stability. Significant structural changes are urgently needed to secure sustained and inclusive growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Latin America and Central America

547. The trade-off between Innovation and Defence Industrial Policy

Author:
Fulvio Castellacci, Martin Blom, and Arne Martin Fevolden
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper investigates the trade-off between innovation and defence industrial policy. It presents an agent-based simulation model calibrated for the Norwegian defence industry that compares different policy scenarios and examines the effects of a pending EU market liberalization process. The paper points to two main results. (1) It finds that a pure scenario where national authorities focus on, and provide support exclusively for, either a) international competitiveness or b) national defence and security objectives, is more Pareto efficient than a corresponding mixed strategy where policy makers simultaneously pursue both international competitiveness and defence and security objectives. (2) Under the conditions of the new EU liberalization regime, it finds that a stronger and more visible trade-off will emerge between international competitiveness and national defence and security objectives. Policy makers will have to choose which to prioritise, and set a clear agenda focusing on one of the two objectives.international competitiveness or b) national defence and security objectives, is more Pareto efficient than a corresponding mixed strategy where policy makers simultaneously pursue both international competitiveness and defence and security objectives. (2) Under the conditions of the new EU liberalization regime, it finds that a stronger and more visible trade-off will emerge between international competitiveness and national defence and security objectives. Policy makers will have to choose which to prioritise, and set a clear agenda focusing on one of the two objectives.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Europe

548. International Patenting

Author:
Per Botolf Maurseth and Roger Svensson
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
International patenting is increasing in importance. Patents protection is sought in the inventors' homeland but increasingly also in other countries. Globalization, high growth rates in high-tech industries, growing emerging markets and harmonization of patent institutions across countries have stimulated increased international patenting. We use a simple model of international patenting developed by Eaton and Kortum(1996) where the decision to patent in a country depends on country characteristics and the quality of the patented invention. With access to a unique database on Swedish firms' patents and patent behavior we are able to estimate some of these relations and test their validity. Our results indicate that the propensity to apply for international patent protection increases with indicators of the value of the invention and indictors of technological rivalry and market size in the markets where patent applications are submitted.
Topic:
Globalization, International Law, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Intellectual Property/Copyright

549. Taxation in Paraguay: Marginalization of small-scale farming

Author:
Déborah Itriago
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Paraguay's tax system is insufficient to provide the resource base to eradicate poverty in the country, and has done little or nothing to achieve a more equal distribution of income and wealth. Two major taxation reforms over the last decade have done little to alleviate the fiscal injustice that is generated partly by the low tax reciprocity of the soy agribusiness – Paraguay's main export crop. Meanwhile, programmes to support small- scale farming receive a level of public financing accounting for just 5 per cent of public expenditure. With one of the highest levels of unequal land ownership in the world, labour informality at very high levels and poor environmental regulation of soy producers, the livelihoods and ecosystems of Paraguay's small-scale producers are at risk. There are serious loopholes in Paraguay's tax system that must be addressed in order to deliver a fairer, progressive taxation system that will allow the country to meet its social objectives.
Topic:
Agriculture, Environment, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Latin America

550. A Flop and a Debacle: Inside the IMF's Global Rebalancing Acts

Author:
Paul Blustein
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Cooperation among major countries to shrink global imbalances in trade and capital flows is highly desirable for the sake of promoting a sustainable recovery from the financial crisis that erupted in 2008. The story that unfolds in this paper does not bode well for such cooperation. It is a detailed account of the initiatives, led by the IMF, to address imbalances prior to the 2008 global financial crisis.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:
China

551. Perspectives on the G20: The Los Cabos Summit and Beyond

Author:
James A. Haley
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The G20 leaders meeting in Los Cabos confront a number of challenges. Most prominent among these is the state of the global economy, which remains dangerously unbalanced, and in which the balance of risks is clearly weighted on the downside. These risks emanate from several sources.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China

552. Bahrain and the global balance of power after the Arab Spring

Author:
Lars Erslev Andersen
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The global balance of power is changing, and the role of the US as the only superpower is being challenged by emerging new powers and a still more powerful China. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Persian Gulf. This Working Paper by DIIS researcher Lars Erslev Andersen argues that if we are fully to understand the developments in the Persian Gulf we need to analyze the Persian Gulf as a regional security complex in its own right. The argument is developed empirically with reference to the case of Bahrain.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Middle East, Arabia, and Bahrain

553. Global food security index 2012

Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Global food prices rose twice as fast as inflation in the last decade, impoverishing millions at a time when poverty relief captured the world's attention. Huge price swings for wheat, maize, soybeans and rice—staple crops for much of the world—made matters worse, disrupting markets and harming both producers and consumers. The food riots that swept more than two dozen countries in 2008 and 2011 were the most visible effect of these trends, but they also point to a deeper and more lasting concern: chronic food insecurity.
Topic:
Agriculture, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Food

554. Best cities ranking and report

Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Earlier this year the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) teamed up with data sharing company BuzzData to host a competition offering users the opportunity to combine data from the Worldwide Cost of Living and Liveability surveys with other sources to provide a ranking of their own. Here Jon Copestake, the Editor of the EIU's Cost of Living and Liveability surveys, discusses his experience of the competition.
Topic:
Demographics, International Trade and Finance, Culture, and Urbanization

555. Myanmar: The Politics of Economic Reform

Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Myanmar has embarked on an ambitious program of sweeping reforms to end its isolation and integrate its economy with the global system. Closely entwined with its dramatic political transition, the end of longstanding Western sanctions is supporting this reconfiguration. If the reforms are done well, many across the country stand to benefit, but those who profited most from the old regime's restrictions and privileges will lose access to windfall profits and guaranteed monopolies. The crony businessmen, military and party elite will still do well but will need to play by new rules, meet domestic and foreign competition and even pay taxes. Perhaps recognising the opportunities a more vibrant economy in a fast-growing region will bring for all, there is no major pushback to these changes, rather attempts to adapt to the new economy. The challenges and risks are numerous for a government with little experience juggling the many changes required, but it cannot resist the pent-up political pressure for change it has already unleashed.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Globalization, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

556. U.S.-India Defense Trade

Author:
S. Amer Latif
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Over the past decade, the United States and India have built the foundations of a partnership that has the potential to be one of the more consequential relationships of the twenty-first century. Since President Bill Clinton's visit to India in 2000, the two countries have forged a relationship that is now defined by five pillars of cooperation that include strategic issues, energy and climate change, education and development, economics and trade, and science and technology. It is a wide-ranging partnership that holds the promise of collaboration on issues that are not only important to these two countries, but to many other countries as well.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, South Asia, and India

557. Enhancing U.S. Trade and Cooperation Relations with Middle-Income Countries

Author:
Daniel F. Runde and Amasia Zargarian
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Justifying traditional U.S. assistance to middle-income countries is an increasingly difficult proposition, and refocusing limited U.S. government development resources away from middle-income countries offers an efficient way to identify savings in the foreign assistance budget. This is not the first time that the U.S. government has faced such questions, and it can draw upon past transitions—not all successful—for a variety of valuable lessons for repurposing the United States' relationship with middle-income countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
United States

558. From Strength to Empowerment: The Next Generation of U.S.-Malaysia Relations

Author:
Murray Hiebert, Ernest Z. Bower, Elina Noor, Mahani Zainal Abidin, Gregory Poling, and Tham Siew Yean
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Relations between the United States and Malaysia are at an all-time high. Since President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Najib Razak entered office in 2009, both countries' governments have committed to a new beginning and moved to establish closer ties through increased political, economic, and people-to-people cooperation.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and Malaysia

559. Malaysia's China Policy in the Post-Mahathir Era: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation

Author:
KUIK Cheng-Chwee
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Malaysia's China policy in the post-Cold War era – as an instance of a smaller state's strategy toward a proximate and rising great power – has been characterized by three patterns. First, there was a shift from hostility and guarded rapprochement during the Cold War to cordiality and maturing partnership in the post-Cold War era. Second, despite the overall positive development, Malaysia's China policy has remained, in essence, a hedging approach that is driven by both a pragmatic desire to maximize benefits from a closer relationship with the neighboring giant and a contingent calculation to guard against any long-term strategic risks in the uncertain regional environment. Third, such a two-pronged approach, which took shape since the 1990s under Mahathir Mohamad, has endured beyond the Mahathir era. Indeed, under his successors Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Najib Tun Razak, Malaysia has continued to pursue a policy of dualism vis-à-vis China. What explains the enduring continuity of the hedging approach in Malaysia's China policy? This paper adopts a neoclassical realist perspective, arguing that the continuity is attributed to both structural and domestic factors. Domestically, the changing bases of political legitimation in the multi-ethnic country, which highlight the increasing salience of economic performance and political inclusiveness as key sources of moral authority to the UMNO-led coalition government, have necessitated the succeeding leaders to continue pursuing a pragmatic policy aimed at ensuring a stable and productive relationship with China, not least to gain from the steadily growing bilateral trade and the giant's growing outward investment. Structurally, Malaysia's position as a smaller state has compelled it to be constantly vigilant about the uncertainty of state intentions and inter-great power relations, which in turn demands it adopts contingent measures to hedge against longer-term risks. It is such structural and domestic determinants that have fundamentally shaped the country's policy towards China in general and the South China Sea issue in particular, which characteristically bears the mark of a delicate dualism, i.e. an explicit preference for engaging China through bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, but one that is backed by a low-key practice of maintaining and strengthening its traditional military links with its Western security partners.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Cold War, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Malaysia, and Israel

560. The Cost to Mexico of U.S. Corn Ethanol Expansion

Author:
Timothy A. Wise
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
More than 40% of U.S. corn is now consumed in the production of ethanol. With the United States by far the world's largest producer and exporter of corn, this represents an estimated 15% of global corn production. A recent survey by the National Academy of Sciences estimated that globally biofuels expansion accounted for 20 - 40% of the price increases seen in 2007 - 8, when prices of many food crops doubled. This had a dramatic impact on poor consumers and on net - food - importing developing countries. Expanding U.S. production and consumption of corn - based ethanol, which has been encouraged by a range of U.S. government subsidies and incentives, is considered one of the most important biofuel programs in putting upward pressure on food prices. Mexico now imports about one - third of its corn from the United States. Using conservative estimates from a study on U.S. ethanol expansion and corn prices, we estimate the direct impacts of U.S. ethanol expansion on Mexican corn import costs. We find that from 2006 - 2011, U.S. ethanol expansion cost Mexico about $1.5 billion due to ethanol - related corn price increases. Other methodologies suggest the costs could be more than twice as high, surpassing $3 billion over the period.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Development, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Food
Political Geography:
United States, Latin America, and Mexico

561. Business and Human Rights: Proposals from the Research Group on Private International Law and Human Rights

Author:
Nicolás Zambrana Tévar
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:
By means of Resolution 17/4 of 16 June 2011, the UN Human Rights Council has created a Working Group with the mission of implementing the UN “Protect, Respect and Remedy” Framework and its Guiding Principles. As part of its activities, the Working Group asked for input from stakeholders and convened a meeting with them, which took place in Geneva on 20 January 2012.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, Human Welfare, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Geneva and United Nations

562. Tankers on the horizon: Australia's coming LNG boom

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
The International Energy Agency speculates that we could be entering a “golden age of gas.” If that is the case Australia is set to be a key contributor to it. While much attention has been paid to the shale gas boom in North America and prospects for the spread of the “shale gas revolution” elsewhere, Australia has been positioning itself to emerge as a leading player in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market by the end of this decade.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Australia, Australia/Pacific, and North America

563. Inward FDI in Russia and its policy context, 2012

Author:
Alexey Kuznetsov
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Russia is potentially an attractive host economy for foreign direct investment (FDI), mainly due to its large market and rich natural resources. The Government has, however, been unable to make the radical changes needed in the country's investment climate for attracting FDI on a scale and to a range of industries in line with Russia's potential. Nevertheless, oil and gas, power generation and motor vehicles industries, as well as wholesale and retail trade and several other industries have recently received new and significant FDI. After a steep decline in 2008, inward FDI (IFDI) stock recovered, to reach US$ 491 billion in 2010, although there was a moderate fall again in 2011. IFDI flows fell considerably in 2009 but rose to US$43 billion in 2010 and US$ 53 billion in 2011. In 2008–2010, the largest number of significant greenfield projects were in power generation. Large mergers and acquisitions (M) took place in various industries, but the size of the largest deals was usually smaller in 2010 than in 2008 and 2009. High levels of corruption, lack of competition and a distorted dialogue between the state, business and society are main barriers to the rapid growth of inward FDI. The recent global financial and economic crisis has revealed weaknesses of the Russian model of development in the 2000s. It is doubtful whether the efforts currently under way by the Russian Government to “repair” the existing model without political and economic reforms will lead toward a major improvement of the investment climate as only slight changes are being made (e. g., the improvement of the Russian migration regime and the development of special economic zones). However, the federal elections in 2012 could lead to more efficient steps, although it is difficult to predict the scale of probable positive shifts in the investment climate.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia

564. Inward FDI in Uruguay and its policy context

Author:
Graciana del Castillo and Daniel García
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
An analysis of trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Uruguay is difficult due to data problems. Nevertheless, balance-of-payments data reveal that inward FDI (IFDI) increased sharply in the second half of the decade 2002-2011 under analysis. IFDI flows relative to GDP rose annually on average to close to 6% in 2005-2011. This compares favorably with annual average flows of only 1% in the decade before the banking crisis and the sharp devaluation of the Uruguayan peso in 2002. At the time, investment in natural resources, including in farmland and real estate in Punta del Este, became very attractive. IFDI flows peaked at 7.5% of GDP in 2006, with the investment in the construction of the first cellulose plant in the country by a multinational enterprise (MNE) from Finland. The rapid increase in IFDI in the second half of the past decade took place amid high rates of economic growth (averaging about 6% a year on average), in combination with an adequate policy and regulatory framework and fiscal incentives to foreign investors. So far, Uruguay remains primarily a host country for FDI, with outward FDI (OFDI) that has been and continues to be insignificant.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Latin America

565. Outward FDI from Hungary and its policy context, 2012

Author:
Erzsébet Czakó and Magdolna Sass
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The period of significant growth of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from Hungary was interrupted in recent years. The global financial and economic crisis has brought considerable changes with effects on Hungary's OFDI. The OFDI stock declined in 2010 after its impressive growth throughout 2000–2009, and the decline in OFDI flows that began in 2007 continued through 2010. However, recent data indicate a rise in both OFDI stock and flows in 2011. Hungary's OFDI stock of US$ 21 billion in 2010 continued to be highly concentrated in terms of the investing companies. These large multinational enterprises (MNEs) face the challenge of an international environment that is increasingly critical to their operations. Government policy and the institutional framework have changed to a great extent since 2010. In particular, the extent of state ownership in the most important outward investors has grown. In the policy field, the declared priorities focus on OFDI in new geographic areas and the promotion of the internationalization of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The main question for the future of Hungarian OFDI remains that of how its sustainability can be assured, especially in terms of broadening the company base of OFDI.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment

566. Azerbaijan in Transition

Author:
Jens Hölscher
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Azerbaijan has been the fastest growing economy of the world and it increasingly attracts the interest of foreign investors. This paper analyses the Azerbaijani economy in transition from communism to capitalism over the past decade with a focus on investment climate. Facts and figures of the apparent economic miracle are presented and a number of political obstacles considered. Azerbaijan's transition towards a market economy has not gone very far and it is mainly slowed down by low levels of trust and high levels of corruption. There are also human rights issues and freedom or press is limited. Unless and until Azerbaijan deals with these problems, shadows will continue to loom over its economic miracle.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Caucasus and Azerbaijan

567. A simple model of multiple equilibria and sovereign default

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper presents a simple model that incorporates two types of sovereign default cost: first, a lump-sum cost due to the fact that the country does not service its debt fully and is recognised as being in default status, by ratings agencies, for example. Second, a cost that increases with the size of the losses (or haircut) imposed on creditors whose resistance to a haircut increases with the proportional loss inflicted upon them.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

568. CELAC: a voice for Latin America and the Caribbean?

Author:
Carlos Portales
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This paper analyses the creation of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) in Caracas on 3 December 2011, locating it within the current context of cooperation and integration in Latin America and the Caribbean. This new body is based on an agreement that includes political cooperation functions and the task of seeking inter-governmental coordination of public policies.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

569. World Trade 1970-2010: Globalisation, Regionalisation and Reallocation

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Using data for more than 200 countries, split into nine regions, we study world trade in goods during 1970-2010. The largest changes are the declining relative importance of Western Europe, and the increasing role for Asia. The intra-regional trade of Asia grew particularly fast; from 4 to 16% of world trade. Due to growing intra-regional trade in Europe and Asia, world trade became more intra-regional until 1995. Manufacturing trade is more regionalised, whereas commodity trade is more globalised. After 1995, extra-regional trade flows grew faster so there was “globalisation” with trade travelling longer distances and a rising share for commodities. From 2000, smaller trade regions such as Africa and Latin America have increased their shares of world trade; reversing the trend over the 30 preceding years.
Topic:
Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Western Europe

570. Cereal Secrets: The world's largest grain traders and global agriculture

Author:
Jennifer Clapp, Sophia Murphy, and David Burch
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This report is composed of two parts. The first introduces the four big commodity traders – Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus – which are the focus of this study. Collectively, these trading companies are often referred to as 'the ABCD companies' because of the coincidence of their initials. Part 2 then looks at these traders in relation to a number of the global issues pressing on agriculture: the 'financialization' of both commodity trade and agricultural production; the emergence of global competitors to the ABCDs, in particular from Asia; and some of the implications of large-scale industrial biofuels, a sector in which the ABCDs are closely involved. It includes a discussion of how smallholders in developing countries are affected by some of these changes, and highlights some development policy implications, given the importance of the ABCDs in shaping the world of food and agriculture.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, and Food
Political Geography:
Asia

571. Climate Change Risks and Supply Chain Responsibility: How should companies respond when extreme weather affects small-scale producers in their supply chain?

Author:
Jodie Thorpe and Shelly Fennell
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
What role can companies play in strengthening the capacity of small-scale producers in developing countries to adapt to climate change, and in doing so, make their global value chains more resilient? While some leading companies have made progress in taking greater responsibility for what happens throughout their supply chains, there has been little discussion about the threat that climate change poses to the livelihoods of small-scale producers. Through interviews with three companies: Starbucks, Marks Spencer, and The Body Shop, the paper examines how smallholders involved in coffee production in Colombia, sesame in Nicaragua, and cotton in Pakistan have been affected by climate change and what it means for the companies' businesses . From this research, Oxfam identifies key actions for companies to begin to address the challenges to small-scale producers, and raises questions for further discussion.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Colombia

572. World Hyperinflations

Author:
Steve H. Hanke and Nicholas Krus
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This chapter supplies, for the first time, a table that contains all 56 episodes of hyperinflation, including several which had previously gone unreported. The Hyperinflation Table is compiled in a systematic and uniform way. Most importantly, it meets the replicability test. It utilizes clean and consistent inflation metrics, indicates the start and end dates of each episode, identifies the month of peak hyperinflation, and signifies the currency that was in circulation, as well as the method used to calculate inflation rates.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis

573. Still a Protectionist Trade Remedy: The Case for Repealing Section 337

Author:
K. William Watson
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Section 337 of the Tariff Act of 1930 gives the United States International Trade Commis¬sion (ITC) the power to exclude products from the United States that are imported pursuant to “unfair methods of competition.” The range of potential activities covered by the law is broad, but the most common claim brought before the ITC is patent infringement. In addition to fil¬ing a lawsuit in federal district court, U.S. pat¬ent holders can often use Section 337 to bring a second case over the same subject matter as long as the defendant imports the impugned product from abroad. This tactic has become increasing¬ly popular because the ITC renders its decisions relatively quickly and has the authority to order a very powerful remedy—total exclusion of the product from the U.S. market.
Topic:
International Organization, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States

574. Public and Private Regulation: Mapping the Labyrinth

Author:
Andrea Renda and Fabrizio Cafaggi
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Private governance is currently being evoked as a viable solution to many public policy goals. However, in some circumstances it has shown to produce more harm than good, and even disastrous consequences as in the case of the financial crisis that is raging in most advanced economies. Although the current track record of private regulatory schemes is mixed, policy guidance documents around the world still require that policy-makers give priority to self-and co-regulation, with little or no additional guidance being given to policymakers to devise when, and under what circumstances, these solutions can prove viable from a public policy perspective. With an array of examples from several policy fields, this paper approaches regulation as a public-private collaborative form and attempts to identify possible policy tools to be applied by public policy-makers to efficiently and effectively approach private governance as a solution, rather than a problem. We propose a six-step theoretical framework and argue that IA techniques should: i) define an integrated framework including both the possibility that private regulation can be used as an alternative or as a complement to public legislation; ii) involve private parties in public IAs in order to define the best strategy or strategies that would ensure achievement of the regulatory objectives; and iii) contemplate the deployment of indicators related to governance and activities of the regulators and their ability to coordinate and solve disputes with other regulators.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

575. Exports and Olympic Games: Is there a Signal Effect?

Author:
Wolfgang Maennig and Felix J. Richter
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
Rose & Spiegel (2011) find that Olympic Games host countries experience significant positive, lasting effects on exports. They interpret their results as an indication that countries use the hosting of such events to signal openness and competitiveness. We challenge these empirical findings on the grounds that a comparison of structurally different and non-matching groups of countries might suffer from a selection bias. We demonstrate that with an appropriate matching and treatment methodology, the significant Olympic effect disappears.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Olympics, and Exports
Political Geography:
Global Focus

576. Azerbaijan’s foreign trade; Comparative Analysis

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
The CESD report on Azerbaijan’s foreign trade analyzes challenges and current developments in this sector. The paper reviews how foreign trade relations changed particularly in terms of countries and commodities since the independency. Different sources are referenced in the report in order to comparatively illustrate existing circumstances in above mentioned sector,
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Oil, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

577. Arms Trafficking: The International and Domestic Legal Framework

Author:
Oona A. Hathaway, Elizabeth Nielsen, Chelsea Purvis, Saurrabh Sanghvi, and Sara Solow
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Legal Challenges, Yale Law School
Abstract:
The conventional arms trade,2 both legal and illegal, is vast in scope. As of 2001, there were an estimated half billion documented small arms in the world, more than one for every twelve people.3 International arms sales are a booming business, and the United States is the world’s largest exporter. In 2008, worldwide arms transfer agreements reached a value of $55.2 billion, of which 76.4% involved developing nations.4 The United States accounted for $37.8 billion, or 68.4%, of these worldwide arms transfer agreements,5 and U.S. activity falls into five categories: foreign military sales agreements between foreign governments and the Department of Defense, direct commercial sales to foreign buyers negotiated by U.S. companies, leases of military equipment by U.S. entities, excess defense materials, and emergency decreases of weapons stockpiles.6 An extensive legal regime has emerged at the international and domestic levels to regulate conventional arms trafficking. This report aims to provide an overview of that framework. It surveys existing international arms trafficking agreements and provides an analytic framework for distinguishing between them. It also surveys the domestic legal framework regarding arms trafficking. Together, these overviews provide a starting point for identifying the shortcomings of existing law, identifying gaps in the legal framework as it currently operates, and considering options to begin to address these shortcomings. This report begins in Part I by briefly outlining the scope of the problem of conventional arms trafficking. It then turns in Part II to identifying three fundamental axes on which international arms trafficking agreements differ. First, each agreement targets one or more points in a conventional arms life cycle: it targets the point of production; the point of domestic ownership and transfer; or the point of interstate transfer. Second, agreements differ in the scope of weapons they cover—they may target different classes of weapons (such as major conventional weapons, small arms and light weapons, and dual-use technologies) and different legal categories of weapons (for example, some cover both legal and illicit weapons, while others only focus on illicit weapons). Third, agreements differ in terms of their enforceability: some are legally binding while others set nonbinding goals. Part III of the report examines the ways in which the United States regulates arms trafficking through its domestic laws and international agreements. It shows that the United States places strong controls on interstate transfers of arms, but it has a more mixed record when it comes to regulating earlier stages of the arms life cycle. While U.S. law places a number of marking and recordkeeping requirements on arms producers and sellers, domestic ownership laws are lax compared to those of other countries. Part IV shows that there are three major gaps in extant arms trafficking agreements. First, the international agreements that are the most enforceable either fail to target arms trafficking at multiple points in the life cycle or fail to cover a broad scope of weapons. Second, arms trafficking agreements do not adequately regulate the illicit resale of arms in the black market after they are produced and sold for the first time legally. This is because there is no binding and enforceable agreement that requires states to track all domestic weapons transfers, from their initial sale to the final sale before their export. Finally, major arms suppliers, such as the United States, are not party to several major arms trafficking agreements. To address these shortcomings, this report offers three options available to U.S. policymakers for strengthening arms trafficking laws. First, the United States could increase multilateral engagement by ratifying the leading regional arms trafficking agreement, Inter-American Convention Against Illicit Manufacturing of and Trafficking in Firearms, Ammunitions, Explosives, and Other Related Materials (CIFTA). Doing so would likely require no changes in U.S. domestic law but would strengthen the U.S. ability to coordinate its arms control efforts with other countries while encouraging other countries to more effectively address arms trafficking. Second, the United States could increase bilateral programmatic assistance to address arms trafficking—at the very least by taking arms trafficking into account in existing assistance programs. Finally, the United States could engage more actively in leading negotiations over a robust and comprehensive arms trade treaty. Such an agreement would ideally aim to bring the international legal standards developed in CIFTA to the global stage. In leading the way toward such a comprehensive treaty, the United States could encourage universal adoption of the high standards the United States already has in place to ensure that arms are not transferred for illegitimate purposes—purposes that may directly affect U.S. security interests.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Arms Trade, Trafficking, Legal Theory, and Illegal Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

578. Capital Controls: Myth and Reality-A Portfolio Balance Approach

Author:
Carmen M. Reinhart, Nicolas E. Magud, and Kenneth S. Rogoff
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The literature on capital controls has (at least) four very serious apples-to-oranges problems: (i) There is no unified theoretical framework to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of controls; (ii) there is significant heterogeneity across countries and time in the control measures implemented; (iii) there are multiple definitions of what constitutes a "success" and (iv) the empirical studies lack a common methodology-furthermore these are significantly "overweighted" by a couple of country cases (Chile and Malaysia). In this paper, we attempt to address some of these shortcomings by: being very explicit about what measures are construed as capital controls. Also, given that success is measured so differently across studies, we sought to "standardize" the results of over 30 empirical studies we summarize in this paper. The standardization was done by constructing two indices of capital controls: Capital Controls Effectiveness Index (CCE Index), and Weighted Capital Control Effectiveness Index (WCCE Index). The difference between them lies in that the WCCE controls for the differentiated degree of methodological rigor applied to draw conclusions in each of the considered papers. Inasmuch as possible, we bring to bear the experiences of less well known episodes than those of Chile and Malaysia. Then, using a portfolio balance approach we model the effects of imposing capital controls on short-term flows. We find that there should exist country-specific characteristics for capital controls to be effective. From this simple perspective, this rationalizes why some capital controls were effective and some were not. We also show that the equivalence in effects of price- vs. quantity-capital control are conditional on the level of short-term capital flows.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Latin America and Southeast Asia

579. Integrating Reform of Financial Regulation with Reform of the International Monetary System

Author:
Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper links reform of the international financial regulatory system with reform of the international monetary system because as this recent global crisis demonstrates so vividly, the root causes can come from both the financial and monetary spheres and they can interact in variety of dangerous ways. On the financial regulatory side, I highlight three problems: developing a better tool kit for pricking asset-price bubbles before they get too large; shooting for national minima for regulatory bank capital that are at least twice as high those recently agreed as part of Basel III; and implementing a comprehensive approach to "too-big-to-fail" financial institutions that will rein-in their past excessive risk-taking. On the international monetary side, I emphasize what needs to be done to discourage "beggar-thy-neighbor" exchange rate policies, including agreeing on a graduated set of penalties for countries that refuse persistently to honor their international obligations on exchange rate policy.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis

580. G7 to G8 to G20: Evolution in Global Governance

Author:
Gordon S. Smith
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper provides a brief history of the evolution of the Group of Seven (G7) from its origins in the aftermath of the 1971 breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of exchange rates and the oil crisis in 1973. It then discusses Russia's participation at summits after the fall of the Berlin Wall, formally joining the group in 1997, thus becoming the Group of Eight (G8). The paper gives a concise account of the formation of the Group of Twenty (G20) finance ministers and central bank governors in the late 1990s, in the wake of financial crises in Asia and Latin America, which was elevated to a leaders' summit forum at the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. The paper wraps up with a discussion of the differences in the G8 and G20 models, concluding that the G20 process is still the best option for meeting the challenges of complex global governance issues.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, Asia, and Latin America

581. Leading Without Followers: How Politics and Market Dynamics Trapped Innovations in Japan's Domestic "Galapagos" ICT Sector

Author:
Kenji E. Kushida
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Despite global leadership by Japanese firms in sectors such as automobiles, precision equipment, and various high tech components, Japanese firms in the telecommunications sector have followed a persistent pattern of leading without followers. While leading the domestic market to ever-high levels of sophistication, sometimes beyond that of most other advanced industrial countries, Japanese ICT companies have retreated dramatically from international telecommunications-related markets. Moreover, in technology after technology, Japanese ICT firms invest heavily, undertake extensive R, and for network technologies, deploy infrastructure rapidly, only to find that global technological trajectories shift in a different direction. While globally successful Japanese industries were able to use their domestic market as a springboard into international markets, Japan's telecommunications sector became decoupled from global markets, trapping Japanese firms in the domestic market.
Topic:
Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan and Israel

582. Venture Capital and Clean Technology: Opportunities and Difficulties

Author:
Martin Kenney and Andrew Hargadon
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
In the last half - century, venture capitalists have financed many of the most important new U.S. technology-based firms and industries. Most recently, venture capital has been touted as a key investor and driver of a new clean technology future. This paper examines the characteristics of successful venture capital investing and the structure and dynamics of clean technology markets to predict whether venture capital is the best model for financing a clean technology transition. We identify the following three key characteristics of technologies and markets in which venture capital can be successfully invested. First, the firm's markets must be large and rapidly growing. Second, the firm's solutions must be scalable, with the particular characteristic that a firm's growth in revenue (and valuation) significantly outpaces the capital cost of achieving that growth. Third, there must be the potential for large and rapid payoff, as either a public stock offering or acquisition by another firm. In the U.S. clean technology market, with the exception of energy being a large market, in nearly all cases these characteristics do not hold. For these reasons, a venture capital model for funding clean technology innovation is unlikely to be successful and the imposition of venture capital goals on clean technology firms may even be harmful to their survival. The current Obama Administration's strategy of providing enormous loan guarantees to a few chosen venture capital ‐ financed firms is misguided because it is likely to truncate the chaotic business model search that characterizes the formation of new industries.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets

583. Diffusing the Cloud: Cloud Computing and Implications for Public Policy

Author:
John Zysman, Kenji E. Kushida, and Jonathan Murray
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Cloud Computing is rapidly emerging as the new information technology platform. It is, however, much more than simply a new set of technologies and business models. Cloud Computing is transforming how consumers, companies, and governments store information, how they process that information, and how they utilize computing power. It can be an engine of innovation, a platform for entrepreneurship, and driver of corporate efficiency. While an increasingly commonly term, confusion remains over what exactly constitutes Cloud Computing, how the markets are unfolding, and what forces will drive their evolution and diffusion. This paper provides an overview and conceptual tools for business leaders, policymakers, and non-specialist scholars to identify, distill, and easily understand the core aspects of how Cloud Computing service markets are developing, and how an array of policy issues will influence how this new computing platform unfolds across the world.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Science and Technology

584. Who Captures Value in Global Supply Chains?

Author:
Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö, Petri Rouvinen, Timo Seppälä, and Pekka Ylä-Anttila
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Available statistics tell us little about the economic consequences of increasing global dispersion of production processes. In order to shed light on the issue, we perform grass roots detective work to uncover the geography of value added in the case of a Nokia N95 smartphone circa 2007. The phone was assembled in Finland and China. In the case when the device was assembled and sold in Europe, the value-added share of Europe (EU-27) rose to 68%. Even in the case when it was assembled in China and sold in the United States, Europe captured as much as 51% of the value added, despite of the fact that it had rather little role in supplying the physical components. Our analysis illustrates that international trade statistics can be misleading; the capture of value added is largely detached from the physical goods flows. It is rather services and other intangible aspects of the supply chain that dominate. While final assembly – commanding 2% of the value added in our case – has increasingly moved offshore, the developed countries continue to capture most of the value added generated by global supply chains.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Finland

585. Barcode Empires: Politics, Digital Technology, and Comparative Retail Firm Strategies

Author:
Bartholomew C. Watson
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Like other service sectors, information technology has dramatically altered the growth and character of the retail trade sector in the affluent economies. Nevertheless, significant variation exists in the typical strategies of retail firms in different countries. This article explores this variation and proposes both an ideal type and an explanation. It argues that the problems of markets and hierarchies in retailing were set in motion by a series of political fights starting in the 1960s and 1970s. This demonstrates that once again that technical outcomes are not determined by the technology itself, but by social and political rules. Future technology platforms, such as e-commerce of mobile commerce, should be expected to follow similar political logics. As retailing firms spread around the globe, this has important implications for national competition policy.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, and Communications

586. Structuring the Smartphone Industry: Is the Mobile Internet OS Platform the Key?

Author:
Martin Kenney and Bryan Pon
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Until the introduction of the iPhone, cellular telephony and the Internet were essentially separate. The Internet was a PC-based service, while mobile telephony was conducted on a telephone. Though there were mobile products that provided communication services such as email, web access and other Internet services were either unavailable or inferior to those available on a PC. The “smartphone” category re defined by Apple meant the convergence of traditional mobile telephony, Internet services, and personal computing. As these sectors merge into a single device, formerly separate industry architectures and their constituent firms are being forced into direct competition. We test theories of industry architecture and technological platforms regarding their ability to explain the strategies of key entrants in navigating the transition. We analyze in detail the actions and strategies of four major competitors, including Apple, Google, Microsoft, Nokia, and, more briefly, Research in Motion and HP/Palm, from the framework of technological platform theory. Our analysis suggests that currently some competitors are following traditional platform strategies, but that Google and Apple appear to have adopted strategies at odds with platform literature. We examine how the dynamics of this convergence may lead to a reconsideration of certain tenets of platform theory.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, and Communications

587. The New Digital Economy: How it will transform business

Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
International leaders face an era of unprecedented change. The recession and financial crisis that ended in 2009 caused a seismic shift that has reshaped the global business landscape. The world economy is now characterized by sluggish growth in the West, a shift in power to the East, and value-driven customers and rising risks everywhere. At the same time, the downturn has hastened the adoption of key technologies—mobility, cloud computing, business intelligence and social media—that are transforming businesses and sparking a new wave of wealth creation, particularly in the emerging world.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Science and Technology

588. Balancing growth and stability in EU financial reform

Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The financial crisis has forced a reappraisal of the regulatory architecture, globally and in the EU and its member states. Around the world, policymakers are proposing significant changes to rules governing the financial sector, with the goal of making the financial system more resilient. Given the large and visible costs of financial instability for Europe, it is natural for European policymakers to make the avoidance of financial crises a high priority. But it is also important to recognise that regulation carries a range of costs that can dilute the economic benefits of a competitive and dynamic financial services sector. The academic literature has robustly established that financial development is not only the consequence of economic growth but also a driver. If the EU is to achieve the ambitious goals for unleashing private enterprise and creating jobs set out within the Europe 2020 agenda, then it cannot afford to overlook the role of the financial system in fostering innovation and growth. As supervisory authorities consider a broad set of proposals to strengthen the regulatory infrastructure, a n important quest ion that arises is how to assess the aggregate impact of these various measures. Although each may look sensible in isolation, they could still impose a larger - than - expected burden on the financial system when take n in the aggregate. The focus of policy reforms should be on forcing financial institutions to internalise the social costs of their risk - taking decisions rather than suppressing financial innovation. Credible policies to allow the failure of financial institutions would encourage market monitoring of risk - taking, reducing the need for additional prudential regulation and minimising costs to the taxpayer in the event of bankruptcy. Policymakers should aim to put in place an objective, sustainable and flexible regulatory regime, as the design of the regulatory framework will play a significant role in the future development of both the financial industry and the wider economy. International consistency in the regulatory reform agenda is also important so as not to risk fragmentation of global capital markets, which bring significant economic benefits to companies and consumers alike. The economic and social purpose of financial markets is the efficient allocation of capital, and the regulatory agenda must be framed around this goal. At a time when the European economy is struggling to recover lost ground, changes to the regulatory regime should not unduly restrict the potential of the financial sector to contribute to the continents future prosperity.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

589. Inward FDI in Malaysia and its policy context

Author:
Rajah Rasiah and Chandran Govindaraju
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Malaysia is still perceived as an important destination for foreign direct investment (FDI). Deregulation by the Malaysian government in 1986 with a new round of Pioneer status tax holidays, tax allowances for expansion projects, liberal rules for firms operating in free trade zones (FTZs), and tax exemptions are encouraging stronger FDI inflows (IFDI). IFDI flows reached a peak in 1988-1993 as export-oriented foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) relocated manufacturing production operations to Malaysia to benefit from cheap labor, government incentives and liberal conditions for manufacturing FDI. After 1996, due to the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998, IFDI flows into Malaysia decreased and subsequently recorded the lowest level in 2001 as a result of the world trade recession. Following steady growth in 2002-2007, IFDI in Malaysia fell dramatically in 2008 and 2009 due to the global economic crisis. However, a strong resumption in the first quarter of 2010 and government efforts, including continued liberalization of manufacturing and services, the Government Transformation Programme, promoting new key economic areas, and the active role of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), contributed to an increase in inward FDI flows in the second quarter of 2010.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Malaysia and Southeast Asia

590. Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations

Author:
Samuel W. Bodman, James D. Wolfensohn, and Julia E. Sweig
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Brazil has transcended its status as the largest and most resource-rich country in Latin America to now be counted among the world's pivotal powers. Brazil is not a conventional military power, it does not rival China or India in population or economic size, and it cannot match the geopolitical history of Russia. Still, how Brazil defines and projects its interests, a still-evolving process, is critical to understanding the character of the new multipolar and unpredictable global order.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, Brazil, and Latin America

591. Service Innovation and the Proximity-Concentration Trade-off Model of Trade and FDI

Author:
Fulvio Castellacci
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper introduces service innovation in the proximity-concentration trade-off model of trade and FDI (Helpman, Melitz and Yeaple, 2004). The idea is that innovation will have two main effects on service firms' choice between exports and FDI. First, innovative firms will on average have higher productivity levels than non-innovative enterprises. Secondly, innovators will have to pay a higher relational distance cost for undertaking export activities, and they will therefore prefer to avoid (or reduce) these costs by choosing a FDI strategy instead. We test the empirical relevance of this idea on a new survey dataset for a representative sample of firms in all business service sectors in Norway. The results show that firms are more likely to choose FDI rather than export the greater their productivity level and the higher the relational distance costs they face.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment

592. Better Factories Cambodia: An Instrument for Improving Industrial Relations in a Transnational Context

Author:
Raymond Robertson and Arianna Rossi
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Globalization of production has created an environment for labor-management relations that involves international actors and spans countries, going beyond the boundaries of the traditional workspace. The dramatic changes brought about by globalization led to the emergence of new cross-border forms of industrial relations. This paper analyses the case of the International Labour Organization's Better Factories Cambodia (BFC) project as a transnational instrument to create the institutional space for industrial relations in Cambodia. Based on the principle of social dialogue among the social partners (the national Government and workers' and employers' organizations) as well as with global buyers, BFC's multistakeholder approach reaches beyond the workplace and may be a key instrument of industrial relations because it bridges the gap between the sphere of production and that of consumption. The empirical results reveal some of the particular strengths of the program.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Cambodia and Southeast Asia

593. Restrictions of Passage, Accidents and Oil Transportation Norms: Impact on Supply Security

Author:
Giacomo Luciani
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper looks at restrictions of passage, accidents and oil transportation norms as causes of interruption in oil supplies. The key 'chokepoints' are discussed in detail: the Straits of Hormuz, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, the Canals of Suez and Panama, the Turkish Straits and the entrance to the Baltic Sea. It is concluded that in most cases the danger of closure can only be temporary; nevertheless, investment in bypasses and alternatives is highly desirable, and in the case of the Turkish Straits, has not been forthcoming. The discussion then turns to threats to navigation outside the chokepoints, such as piracy and oil spills in enclosed seas, particularly the Mediterranean. The final section looks at changing international norms, especially the entry into force of the requirement of double hulls for oil tankers. The paper's main conclusion is that there is no scenario of interruption of maritime oil and gas transportation that may cause a severe physical shortage of oil, in general or specifically for Europe. In almost all cases potential tensions could be easily allayed if responsible governments took the necessary steps to create alternatives (notably pipeline bypasses) or to curb illegal activities. The main factor preventing the required investment in transportation alternatives is the lack of a well-functioning market mechanism for burden sharing. Where passage must be paid for, the resulting income stream supports investment to increase capacity and accommodate growing demand.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Oil, Maritime Commerce, and Piracy
Political Geography:
Turkey

594. Is the EU internal market suffering from an integration deficit? Estimating the 'home-bias effect'

Author:
Consuelo Pacchioli
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
As an alternative to measuring the extent of market integration, 'home-bias' indicates the degree to which economic agents 'over-prefer' to transact with domestic agents rather than agents from other EU countries. Such an exclusive preference is measured against a benchmark of (ideal) market integration and is called 'home-bias'.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

595. Adjustment Difficulties and Debt Overhangs in the Eurozone Periphery

Author:
Daniel Gros and Cinzia Alcidi
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper describes four key drivers behind the adjustment difficulties in the periphery of the eurozone: The adjustment will be particularly difficult for Greece and Portugal, as two relatively closed economies with low savings rates. Both of these countries combine high external debt levels with low growth rates, which suggest they are facing a solvency problem. In both countries fiscal adjustment is a necessary condition for overall sustainability, but it not sufficient by itself. A sharp cut in domestic consumption (or an unrealistically large jump in exports) is required to quickly establish external sustainability. An internal devaluation (a cut in nominal wages in the private sector) is unavoidable in the longer run. Without such this adjustment in the private sector, even continuing large-scale provision of official funding will not stave off default. Ireland's problems are different. They stem from the exceptionally large losses in the Irish banks, which were taken on by the national government, leading to an explosion of government debt. However, the Irish sovereign should be solvent because the country has little net foreign debt. Spain faces a similar problem as Ireland, although its foreign debt is somewhat higher but its construction bubble has been less extreme. The government should thus also be solvent, although further losses in the banking system seem unavoidable. Italy seems to have a better starting position on almost on all accounts. But its domestic savings rate has deteriorated substantially over the last decade.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Spain and Ireland

596. Taking Stock: EU Common Commercial Policy in the Lisbon Era

Author:
David Kleimann
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The first 16 months of the EU's common commercial policy (CCP) in the post-Lisbon period provide indicative insights into how the European Parliament, the European Commission and the Council of Ministers interpret their respective roles under the new legal framework introduced by the Lisbon Treaty. This paper analyses the amendments, the institutional capacities to respond to the reform challenges and the evolving institutional balance applying to Lisbon-era common commercial policy. Against this backdrop, the paper gives an overview of the changing dynamics of EU trade and investment policy in a context of enhanced politicization resulting from the European Parliament's involvement in the decision-making process. Particular importance is given to the question whether enhanced EP involvement in decision-making has the potential to lead to a scenario resembling the policy process in the United States, where congressional responsibility for trade and investment policy has resulted in the capture of the policy agenda by special interest groups and snail-paced policy progress (if any) in recent years. Accordingly, the paper scrutinizes the political preferences that the European Parliament is introducing into current European trade policy debates as well as the framework legislation and trade agreements. Finally, it is argued that parliamentary involvement in making common commercial policy has the potential to narrow the gap between European public political preferences and perceptions, on the one hand, and actual EU trade policies on the other, and to place EU trade and investment policies on a foundation of renewed public political support. In the author's view, however, it is imperative that such an achievement is based on well-informed, responsible, sustainable and clearly communicated policy proposals from the MEPs, who respond to and seek to balance the multiplicity of interests of CCP stakeholders in European civil society and respect the Union's international obligations.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

597. The New Stability and Growth Pact: Primum non nocere

Author:
Claudio Vicarelli and Marco Fioramanti
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The recent economic and financial crises have shown the weakness of EU economic governance. A process of strengthening macroeconomic and fiscal surveillance started in the course of 2010; among other proposals, the European Commission suggested a new binding criterion of debt reduction: debt-to-GDP ratio is to be considered sufficiently diminishing if its distance with respect to the 60% of GDP reference value has reduced over the previous three years at a rate of the order of one-twentieth per year.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

598. The EU and China's engagement in Africa: the dilemma of socialisation

Author:
Liu Lirong
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
China's engagement in Africa has obliged the EU to re-evaluate its own relationship with Africa. Since 2008, in an attempt to resolve the conflicts of norms and interests, the EU has proposed establishing a trilateral dialogue and cooperation mechanism between the EU, China and Africa, which so far has not yielded any substantial results. The differences between China's and the EU's Africa policies are mainly visible in two areas: aid and security. The contradiction between their respective aid policies lies in China's 'no-strings-attached aid' versus European 'conditionality' or emphasis on 'fundamental principles'. The contradiction between their security approaches in Africa lies in China's non-interference policy and the European concept of human security. Promoting common normative values and principles is at the core of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), which is important for the EU's self-construction at present. China's non-interference policy is related to its domestic security and stability and in this context it engages in its own rhetoric. In matters of principle it is difficult for both sides to make compromises or accept limitations imposed by the other.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Europe

599. State of the union Can the euro zone survive its debt crisis?

Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
In the run-up to the global financial crisis, the euro area looked very much like a microcosm of the world economy. The region as a whole grew in line with its long-term trend, and its trade position with the outside world was broadly in balance. However, the euro area's aggregate position masked large variations across the member states. In some parts of the region (notably countries on the geographical periphery), demand grew consistently faster than output; in others (like Germany), the reverse was the case. Profligacy in the periphery was funded by thrift in the "core". This arrangement suited both sides.for a time at least. While countries in the periphery enjoyed debt-fuelled booms, countries such as Germany, where domestic demand was weak, could rely on exports to keep growing.
Topic:
Debt, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

600. China and the United States: Core Interests, Common Interests, and Partnership

Author:
Wu Xinbo
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In an era of increased economic interdependence and shared security issues, it is vital that China and the United States become genuine partners, based not on shared ideology or traditional geopolitical interests, but on the needs of global governance. This, however, requires both countries to respect the other's legitimate core interests; if they do not, the resulting distrust and misinterpretation of intentions make cooperation less likely. To date, China has emphasized protection of its core interests, while the United States has emphasized developing areas of common interest while maintaining its expansive approach to foreign policy. This difference in emphasis has set up both areas of friction and possibilities for greater interaction. China's interests in Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang lies at the heart of its national security concerns and their management is considered fundamental to the country's survival and development. As China has declared, continuing U.S. involvement with these issues is viewed as a challenge to China's core interests. If the United States eases its policies toward China's core interests, this could, in turn, encourage China to respect U.S. core interests and foster cooperation as China's material power and international influence are both growing. Developing common interests, meanwhile, can create more momentum for the two countries to manage and resolve their differences. Potential areas for successful cooperation include building a permanent peace mechanism on the Korean Peninsula; helping to secure strong, sustainable, and balanced global economic growth; and bringing about a global arrangement on creating an international environmental regime.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, and Sinai Peninsula