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  • Author: Stefano Micossi
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Many observers take it for granted that the European Union suffers from a lack of democracy: in the dual sense that common policies have diverged from voters' preferences (output legitimacy) and that decision-making mechanisms appear to lack the basic requirements of transparency, accountability and democratic involvement (input legitimacy). Stefano Micossi, Director General of Assonime, argues in this paper that once the Union is recognised for what it is – an innovative polity, where power is shared by a large number of players with many participation and influence-wielding mechanisms, – it becomes apparent that on the whole it complies with democratic legitimisation standards no less than do member states, even if multiple, and potentially conflicting legitimisation channels and principles may confuse observers. The member states and EU citizens continue to turn to the Union to seek solutions to problems that cannot be solved nationally, and there is an extraordinary proliferation of subjects and channels providing participation in European debates and decisions, in new and ever-changing ways. Through this continuous adjustment process, the Union has designed new legitimisation solutions that may well represent the future of democracy in a world of diverse but increasingly interconnected communities.
  • Topic: International Relations, Democratization, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Daniel Gros
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper provides background information on the likely challenges the rise of China and India will pose for the economy of the EU. The purpose is mainly descriptive, namely to spell out what kind of trading partner China and India will represent for the EU in the foreseeable future. A first observation is that India is several times smaller than China in economic terms. Moreover, because its investment rates in both human and physical capital are much lower than in China, its growth potential is likely to remain more limited. China's export structure has already become rather similar to that of the EU and this 'convergence' is likely to result in the rapid accumulation of human and physical capital. If current trends continue, the Chinese economy is likely to have a capital/labour ratio similar to that of the EU. In terms of human capital, China has already caught up considerably, but further progress will be slowed down by its stable demographics and the still low enrolment ratio in tertiary education. In both areas India will lag China by several decades. The rapid accumulation of capital suggests that the emergence of China will put adjustment pressures mainly on capital-intensive industries, not the traditional sectors, such as textiles. Another source of friction that is likely to emerge derives from the abundance of coal in China, resulting in a relatively carbon- and energy-intensive economy.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: China, Europe, India
  • Author: Nathalie Tocci
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This is the second in a series of papers from a new project entitled “Who is a normative foreign policy actor? The European Union and its Global Partners”. The first paper – entitled Profiling Normative Foreign Policy: The European Union and its Global Partners, by Nathalie Tocci, CEPS Working Document No. 279, December 2007 – set out the conceptual framework for exploring this question. The present paper constitutes one of several case studies applying this framework to the behaviour of the European Union, whereas the others to follow concern China, India, Russia and the United States. A normative foreign policy is rigorously defined as one that is normative according to the goals set, the means employed and the results obtained. Each of these studies explores eight actual case examples of foreign policy behaviour, selected in order to illustrate four alternative paradigms of foreign policy behaviour – the normative, the realpolitik, the imperialistic and the status quo. For each of these four paradigms, there are two examples of EU foreign policy, one demonstrating intended consequences and the other, unintended effects. The fact that examples can be found that fit all of these different types shows the importance of 'conditioning factors', which relate to the internal interests and capabilities of the EU as a foreign policy actor as well as the external context in which other major actors may be at work.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, China, Europe, India
  • Author: Dirk Nabers
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: The leadership of powerful states in processes of regional institutionalization is a significant, though still widely ignored topic in the field of International Relations (IR). This study asks about the theoretical conditions of effective leadership in international institution- building, using China's and Japan's roles in East Asian regionalism as an empirical test case. It addresses the question of what actually happens when states perform the role of leader. Specifically, it focuses on the process of negotiating leadership claims, and different hypotheses are presented as to the requirements of effective leadership in international affairs. The findings point to the fact that leadership is effective and sustainable when foreign elites acknowledge the leader's vision of international order and internalize it as their own. Leadership roles are often disputed and are constituted of shared ideas about self, other, and the world, relying on the intersubjective internalization of ideas, norms, and identities.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Organization, Politics
  • Political Geography: Israel, East Asia
  • Author: Lael Brainard, Vinca LaFleur
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: The international development community as we have known it for sixty years is undergoing an extreme makeover. If its roots go back to the Marshall Plan and the founding of the Bretton Woods institutions, its modern incarnation has branched both up and out— dramatically altering the landscape of humanity's efforts to alleviate poverty.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Poverty
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Shulong Chu
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: China, Japan, and the United States are the most important powers in Asia now and for the future. The relationships among them are the foundation of international relations, peace, and stability in East Asia, but may also become the major source of strategic conflict in the region. What Asia is now and will become in future decades depends very much on the three countries and their relationships.
  • Topic: International Relations, Diplomacy
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Indur M. Goklany
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The state-of-the-art British-sponsored fasttrack assessment of the global impacts of climate change, a major input to the much-heralded Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, indicates that through the year 2100, the contribution of climate change to human health and environmental threats will generally be overshadowed by factors not related to climate change. Hence, climate change is unlikely to be the world's most important environmental problem of the 21st century.
  • Topic: International Relations, Climate Change, Environment, Globalization
  • Political Geography: Britain
  • Author: Harvey Sapolsky, Christopher Preble, Benjamin Friedman
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: Foreign policy experts and policy analysts are misreading the lessons of Iraq. The emerging conventional wisdom holds that success could have been achieved in Iraq with more troops, more cooperation among U.S. government agencies, and better counterinsurgency doctrine. To analysts who share these views, Iraq is not an example of what not to do but of how not to do it. Their policy proposals aim to reform the national security bureaucracy so that we will get it right the next time.
  • Topic: International Relations, Oil
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Stanley Kober
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is beginning to fracture. Its members, sharing the triumphalism that underpinned U.S. foreign policy after the Cold War, took on burdens that have proved more difficult than expected. Increasingly, they are failing to meet the challenges confronting them.
  • Topic: International Relations, Defense Policy, NATO, International Organization
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 03-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: The policy of isolating Hamas and sanctioning Gaza is bankrupt and, by all conceivable measures, has backfired. Violence is rising, harming both Gazans and Israelis. Economic conditions are ruinous, generating anger and despair. The credibility of President Mahmoud Abbas and other pragmatists has been further damaged. The peace process is at a standstill. Meanwhile, Hamas's hold on Gaza, purportedly the policy's principal target, has been consolidated. Various actors, apparently acknowledging the long-term unsustainability of the status quo, are weighing options. Worried at Hamas's growing military arsenal, Israel is considering a more ambitious and bloody military operation. But along with others, it also is tiptoeing around another, wiser course that involves a mutual ceasefire, international efforts to prevent weapons smuggling and an opening of Gaza's crossings and requires compromise by all concerned. Gaza's fate and the future of the peace process hang in the balance.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Gaza
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: Four years after Timor-Leste gained independence, its police and army were fighting each other in the streets of Dili. The April-June 2006 crisis left both institutions in ruins and security again in the hands of international forces. The crisis was precipitated by the dismissal of almost half the army and caused the virtual collapse of the police force. UN police and Australian-led peacekeepers maintain security in a situation that, while not at a point of violent conflict, remains unsettled. If the new government is to reform the security sector successfully, it must ensure that the process is inclusive by consulting widely and resisting the tempation to take autocratic decisions. A systematic, comprehensive approach, as recommended by the UN Security Council, should be based on a realistic analysis of actual security and law-enforcement needs. Unless there is a non-partisan commitment to the reform process, structural problems are likely to remain unresolved and the security forces politicised and volatile.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Development
  • Political Geography: United Nations, Australia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Martin Beck
  • Publication Date: 10-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: The region of the Middle East is highly conflict-loaded. The absence of one distinct regional power may be considered both cause and consequence of this structural feature. At the same time, there are significant power gaps between states in the Middle East, with Israel among the most powerful actors and accordingly defined as a potential regional power. Due to the specific empirical setting of the Middle East region, an analytical design emphasizing relational and procedural dynamics is required. In attempting to develop such a design, this paper utilizes three well-established schools of thought of international relations: (neo)realism, institutionalism, and constructivism. These three schools of thought are further used for developing hypotheses on both Israeli regional policy and its effects on the Middle East. After illustrating these hypotheses in relation to four periods in the contemporary history of Israel, theoretical lessons to be learned for the analysis of regional powers in other world areas are presented.
  • Topic: International Relations, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Palestine
  • Author: Matthew J. Sheiffer
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Military Academy, Department of Social Science
  • Abstract: The use of simulation exercises in undergraduate international relations courses is not new. Yet, many instructors faced with large classes full of students with little experience in the subject matter avoid this tool in favor of more traditional classroom techniques. This paper reports on the results following the introduction of a simulation exercise into a large, introductory undergraduate course in international relations in order to explore the validity of views that simulations are inappropriate tools for large undergraduate courses.
  • Topic: International Relations, Education
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: C. Christine Fair, Clay Ramsay
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United States Institute of Peace
  • Abstract: Over the past year, Pakistan has endured a series of traumatic events that have brought increasing stress to its people and its political classes, as well as to American policymakers and the international community.
  • Topic: International Relations, Political Violence, Islam
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, United States, Asia
  • Author: Daniel Pinkston
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
  • Abstract: North Korean ballistic missiles are a direct threat to Northeast Asian security, and North Korean missile proliferation poses a threat to other regions, particularly the Middle East and South Asia. North Korea is an isolated and authoritarian one-party state; the political system is based upon an extraordinary personality cult that idolizes current leader, Kim Jong Il (Kim Chŏng-il), and his deceased father, Kim Il Sung (Kim Il-sŏng). Several factors have contributed to Pyongyang's chronic insecurity including national division, the Korean War, the international politics of the Cold War, and doubts about the commitments of its alliance partners.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Law, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: South Asia, Israel, North Korea
  • Author: Don Snider
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
  • Abstract: Vice Admiral James Stockdale, Vietnam prisoner of war and Medal of Honor recipient, once said, “Even in the most detached duty, we warriors must keep foremost in our minds that there are boundaries to the prerogatives of leadership, moral boundaries.”
  • Topic: International Relations, War
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Andrew M. Dorman
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
  • Abstract: The author examines the extent to which the United Kingdom (UK) has transitioned to effects-based operations to ascertain: (1) Areas where the U.S. Army could draw lessons from UK policies; (2) Areas where the U.S. Army and the British Ministry of Defence could develop integrated or complementary approaches and doctrines towards transformation for future alliance/coalition operations; and (3) Implications for the U.S. Army for working with the UK. This monograph is subdivided into four parts. Section 1 is a review of the evolution of British defence policy since the end of the Cold War and evaluates the degree to which it has adopted an effects based approach. Section 2 examines the British operational experience since the end of the Cold War including an analysis of the lessons learned and its experiences of working with allies. Section 3 analyses the UK's capability development through its doctrine and acquisition strategies. Section 4 evaluates the implications of these findings for the U.S. Army and makes 17 main recommendations.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom
  • Author: Henry Sokolski
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
  • Abstract: Raise the issue of Pakistan's nuclear program before almost any group of Western security analysts, and they are likely to throw up their hands. What might happen if the current Pakistani government is taken over by radicalized political forces sympathetic to the Taliban? Such a government, they fear, might share Pakistan's nuclear weapons materials and know-how with others, including terrorist organizations. Then there is the possibility that a more radical government might pick a war again with India. Could Pakistan prevail against India's superior conventional forces without threatening to resort to nuclear arms? If not, what, if anything, might persuade Pakistan to stand its nuclear forces down? There are no good answers to these questions and even fewer near or mid-term fixes against such contingencies. This, in turn, encourages a kind of policy fatalism with regard to Pakistan.
  • Topic: International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, War
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, India, Asia
  • Author: W. Andrew Terrill
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
  • Abstract: One of the most important and longstanding strategic relationships for the United States within the Arab World has been with Jordan. The value of this relationship has increased significantly since 2003 as the result of ongoing U.S. difficulties in Iraq and the wider Middle East. Jordan's longstanding ties with the West, ongoing counterterrorism efforts, and moderate policies toward Iraq and Israel suggest that it may become a central target of violent extremism in coming years. Moreover, Jordan's strategic location within the Middle East (bordering Israel, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the Palestinian West Bank territory) make it an especially attractive target for any revolutionary group with region-wide aspirations.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, Syria
  • Author: Richard Betts
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
  • Abstract: Since Huntington wrote, major changes have occurred in the United States' external security environment and domestic political institutions. These have not fundamentally changed the nature of civil-military relations. The enduring issues are tensions over the military preference for overwhelming force, and over the boundary between military expertise and political authority. Since Huntington wrote, the problem of civil-military relations has proved more modest and manageable than many feared it would be, not clearly worse or more dangerous than conflicts between political leaders and other government bureaucracies. The realistic solution is not a rigid application of either of Huntington's ideal types, but pragmatic compromises that tilt in favor of "objective control." Critics of objective control have neglected the extent to which civilian mistakes in making strategy rival the military's. They have neglected to confront the arguments against subjective control, in part because they focus on limitations of objective control for optimizing the functional imperative, or because they misjudge the dangers posed by newly overt partisanship of the officer corps, dangers that would only become acute if subjective control becomes the norm.
  • Topic: International Relations, Defense Policy, Civil Society
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Robert Jervis
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
  • Abstract: The US will leave Iraq at some point, and needs to plan for this eventuality. There are many uncertainties involved, but taking them seriously is the first step toward being able craft a policy that will reduce the damage to us, Iraq, and the region. Even if the US stays until the violence is brought down, its departure will lead to the reopening of local and regional bargains because of the lack of enforcement. The greatest danger is that heightened civil war will lead to intervention by Iraq's neighbors, but the very possibility of large-scale violence creates possibilities for arrangements to avoid it because all of the parties know that they could lose badly if things get out of control.
  • Topic: International Relations, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America, Middle East
  • Author: Pablo Pinto
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
  • Abstract: Political leaders in troubled democracies around the world have resorted to an anti-foreign rhetoric to justify the adoption of policies restricting foreign imports, and the free flow of capital and people, allegedly in defense of the national interest. And this rhetoric has resonated positively with large sectors of the electorate in those countries. A similar trend, exploiting a nationalistic sentiment for economic purposes, is observed in campaigns in the United States to buy American. Most studies to date have analyzed the causes and consequences of economic nationalism at the state level. However, there is good reason to believe that sources of economic nationalism should be traced at the individual level: some individuals might be willing to embrace economic nationalism purely on self-interest, yet others will be forced to trade off material and ideational preferences in order to support the national industry. The existence of this tradeoff at the individual level has important implications for coalition formation on trade, investment and migration policy-making. While recent studies suggest that cultural and ideational interests are likely to influence individual attitudes towards trade, one of the central policy dimensions in economic nationalism, the empirical content of the tradeoff between material and non-material preferences remains untested to date. Using data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP 2003) we explore whether the effect of nationalism on attitudes towards protectionism varies with the individual's position in the economy. We find preliminary evidence that nationalism systematically affects attitudes towards trade in the United States, but less so in the Philippines. We also find that the effect of nationalism is conditional on individuals' skill, or position in the economy.
  • Topic: International Relations, Democratization, Economics, Nationalism
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Philippines
  • Author: Roy Licklider
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
  • Abstract: The theory of transitional justice, usually either war crimes tribunals and/or truth commissions, rests on the assumption that after internal conflict societies must learn and accept the truth of what sort of violence has occurred in order to build a functioning, united society and that any solution which omits such policies should be rejected. There is no empirical support for this assumption. Moreover, acting on it often implies that civil war should be continued. Conflict resolution theory asserts that all major players, including those who have committed atrocities, must be involved in the settlement if it is to be stable. This is not likely to happen unless some people are promised amnesty. Despite its drawbacks, this seems a more appropriate strategy, especially when dealing with someone else's country and war.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Human Rights
  • Author: Jack Snyder, Edward Mansfield
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
  • Abstract: Many observers have argued that promoting democracy abroad promotes peace. Mature, stable democracies have not fought wars against each other, and they rarely suffer from civil wars. But the path to the democratic peace is not always smooth. We argue that during the initial phase of a democratic transition, states face a heightened risk of civil war. When authoritarian regimes break down, a panoply of elite factions and popular groups jockey for power in a setting in which repressive state authority has been weakened, yet democratic institutions are insufficiently developed to take their place. This can lead to civil war through the lack of institutional means to regulate or repress factional strife. We test this argument by conducting a statistical analysis. The results indicate that countries in the initial stages of democratization are more than twice as likely to experience civil war as are stable regimes or regimes undergoing a transition to autocracy. Then we discuss the causal mechanisms linking democratization and civil war in cases drawn from the statistical analysis. These findings underscore the risks in trying to promote peace through democratization in countries that lack the institutions to contain factional and communal conflicts.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Democratization
  • Author: Daniel Heradstveit, G. Matthew Bonham, Michiko Nakano, Victor M.Sergeev
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper focuses on how leaders in Western countries talk about the “war on terrorism.” The paper discusses the difficulties of defining “terrorism,” because, unlike Marxism or capitalism, “terrorism” is not an ideology. Instead the term may be used to designate actions that are used by members of non-governmental organizations against civilian targets. In the case of the “war on terrorism,” the signifier, “terrorism,” is used widely. However, the signified, the perpetrators and what they do, are quite different. Because the designation of the signified depends upon the speaker, the concept of terrorism seems to be subjective and fluid. The signified switches radically both by context and over time, while the only aspect that is stable is the signifier, “terrorism.” The paper goes on to analyze the “war on terrorism” as an ontological metaphor. The paper concludes by arguing that although figures of speech contribute to the cognitive dimension of meaning by helping us to recognize the equivalence to which we are committed and suggesting new equivalences, metaphors like the “war on terrorism” raise problems and do little to increase our understanding. Considering different cultural codes and world views, this type of metaphor is highly counterproductive for communication on the global level.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, International Cooperation, Terrorism
  • Author: Niels Nagelhus Schia, Ståle Ulriksen
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Despite major institutional differences regarding mandate, roles and membership, the UN, the EU and NATO all face common security challenges and operate together in several theatres throughout the world. There is now broad consensus that today's security challenges can be most effectively addressed through an integrated approach. This has led to a process where the organisations have acknowledged the necessity and efficiency of cooperation within and with each other. In turn, international and regional organisations such as the UN, NATO, the EU and the AU, all have developed integration approaches. These include models and concepts such as NATO's 'the comprehensive approach' and 'Effects-based Approach to Operations (EBAO)', 'whole-of-government' approaches, and the UN's 'integrated missions' concept.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, International Cooperation, Non-Governmental Organization
  • Author: Howard Loewen
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: Whereas the European Union (EU) favors a formal, binding, output-oriented, and to some extent supranational approach to cooperation, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is based on informal, non-binding, process-oriented intergovernmental forms of cooperation. This article addresses the question of whether these differences between European and Asian cooperation norms or cultures can account for interregional cooperation problems in the areas of democracy and human rights within the institutional context of EU-ASEAN and the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM). The author argues that a clash of cooperation cultures basically occurs in both forms of interregional collaboration between Asia and Europe, with slight differences due to the institutional context: while disagreements over the question of democracy and human rights between the EU and ASEAN have led to a temporary and then a complete standstill in cooperation, the flexible institutional mechanisms of ASEM seem, at first glance, to mitigate the disruptive effects of such dialogues. Yet informality does not remove the issues from the agenda, as the recurrent disputes over Myanmar's participation and the nonintervention norm favored by the Asian side of ASEM clearly indicate. Antagonistic cooperation cultures thus play a significant role in explaining the obstructive nature of the interregional human rights and democracy dialogue between Asia and Europe.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Human Rights, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Asia, Myanmar
  • Author: Thomas F. Lynch
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
  • Abstract: There are significant and little appreciated differences in the trajectory of Sunni extremist terrorism and that of Shi'a extremism. The differences exist across six key areas that impact American policy considerations, especially in light of steadily escalating tensions with Iran. First and foremost, Sunni radicals and Shi'a extremists differ in the overall approach and main objectives for their use of terror. The former tend to operate in a continuous, mid-to-high intensity manner, seeing war against infidels and apostates as a perennial condition featuring overlapping waves. Outside of an ongoing and seemingly open-ended campaign against Israel, terrorist attacks by Shi'a groups have by and large featured discrete terror campaigns tethered to state and organizational objectives. Second, Sunni terrorists and Shi'a extremists manifest different patterns for recruiting terrorist operatives and developing terrorist missions. Shi'a terrorists, unlike their Sunni counterparts, enjoy direct state support and for that reason are far more likely to originate from Iranian embassies, consulates and state‐run businesses. Third, despite holding a minority viewpoint within the wider Sunni Islamic community, Sunni extremists, especially Salafi-Jihadis, rely more extensively on the support of their coreligionist expatriate communities in facilitating terrorist activities. Fourth, while employing similar tactics and methods, Shi'a terrorist groups have shown a much greater propensity to kidnap innocents to barter, while Sunni extremists more frequently abduct to kill. Fifth, Shi'a terror groups exhibit a much higher incidence of targeted assassinations for specific political gain, rather than the high-casualty killings featured in Sunni terrorism, and particularly of the Salafi-Jihadist variant. Finally, each sect's extremists manage publicity and propaganda differently. The Sunni approach to information management tends to feature doctrine and resources geared to take immediate credit and widely amplify a terrorist event. Shi'a terrorists, while not averse to normal media publicity and amplification, by and large take a much lower-key approach.
  • Topic: International Relations, Islam, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: America, Middle East
  • Author: Patrick Keller
  • Publication Date: 11-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: NATO Defense College
  • Abstract: Barack Obama was elected to the presidency of the United States on the promise of “hope” and “change.”2 Although somewhat vacuous, these promises worked because the people in America – and across the globe – overwhelmingly long for an end of the Bush era which stands for wrong wars (or at least wars gone wrong), hubris, and an overall decline of U.S. economic power, political influence, and moral standing. All presidents seek to leave their lasting imprint on foreign affairs, their doctrine. Most of them, however, merely oscillate between continuity and change: in the absence of major interfering events such as 9/11, institutional inertia, political constraints, and the wisdom of tradition most often push presidents to maintain the status quo while only tinkering with the edges. Revolution, in democratic systems, is a very slow process.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Japan Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The state of Afghanistan remains fragile despite seven years of international assistance. Since 11 September 2001, the international community has focused on state-building and reconstruction in Afghanistan in the hopes of winning the "war on terror". However, in reality, anti-government forces have gained influence over the southern and eastern parts of the country, empowering the terrorist elements. The people's lives remain difficult, with weak government and rampant corruption. The initial confidence and hopes that people had toward the government and the international community have drastically diminished, leading them instead to rely reluctantly on anti-government forces for security and livelihood.
  • Topic: International Relations, NATO, Diplomacy, Terrorism, War
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Japan
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Japan Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Nuclear energy has two facets. When it is used for peaceful purposes such as power generation, medical services, agriculture and industry, it can make a contribution to the betterment of the quality of life. However, it also could be used for military or criminal purposes. Thus, there are both great opportunities and great risks.
  • Topic: International Relations, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Japan, Asia
  • Author: Josef Bucher
  • Publication Date: 09-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
  • Abstract: The world has become smaller as a result of globalization tendencies, making the establishment of a global order more important than ever. Nations have become closer. Hence, the intensive relations between countries must be increasingly protected by legal security. In order to stabilise this global order, also intra-state relations must be subjected to the protection of the law. The rule of law has thus become a central element of successful globalisation on two different levels.
  • Topic: International Relations, Civil Society, Globalization, Human Rights, Human Welfare, International Law
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: David C. Kang
  • Publication Date: 10-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
  • Abstract: Between 1368 and 1841 – almost five centuries – there were only two wars between China, Korea, Vietnam, and Japan. These Sinicized states crafted stable relations with each other, and most of the violence and instability arose between these states and the nomadic peoples to the north and west of China and Korea. Building on the “new sovereignty” research in international relations, I argue that the status quo orientation of China and established boundaries created a loose hierarchy within anarchy that had much to do with the period of peace. Built on a mix of legitimate authority and material power, the China-derived international order provided clear benefits to secondary states, and also contained credible commitments by China not to exploit secondary states that accepted its authority. Korean, Vietnamese, and even Japanese elites consciously copied Chinese institutional and discursive practices to craft stable relations with China, not to challenge it. International systems based on legitimacy and hierarchy are not unique to early modern East Asia, and incorporating these insights into our theories of international society has implications for the contemporary world as well.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, War, International Security
  • Political Geography: Japan, China, Israel, Asia, Vietnam
  • Author: Ian Hurd
  • Publication Date: 11-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
  • Abstract: The conventional separation in IR theory between instrumental behavior and legitimated norms as explanations for state action has discouraged the study of phenomena that include both. As a result important practices including hypocrisy, norm violation, and the strategic reinterpretation of rules and laws are under-examined. The source of the problem is the idea of 'internalization' of external rules and norms, which has come to define the distinction between rationalism and constructivism in IR, and between the logics of appropriateness and of consequences. I argue that internalization is problematic for empirical research in IR because it eliminates the possibility of strategic thinking by states in relation to international norms and rules. It leaves no room for instrumentalism around norms and so cannot account for norm violation, the strategic manipulation of norms, and the productive process of norm innovation. This is a problem equally for rationalism and constructivism. I argue for an alternative model that focuses on the practice of invoking international norms and rules and show that this approach allows new insight into the agent-structure problem, the relation between states and rules in world politics, and the relation between rationalism and constructivism.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Political Economy, Sovereignty, Political Theory
  • Author: Robert Jackson
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
  • Abstract: Writing in the late 18th century Edmund Burke characterized the British East India Company as "a state disguised as a merchant." What, in these terms, is the United States? Is it an empire disguised as a republic dis guised as a democracy? What is Canada? Is it an international system disguised as a confederation disguised as a federation? What, finally, is the European Union? It is somewhat ambiguous. But I shall argue that it is an international organization thinly disguised as a political community.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Organization, Political Theory
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Europe
  • Author: John Ravenhill
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Australian National University Department of International Relations
  • Abstract: In the decade since the financial crises, East Asia has become the most active site in the world for the negotiation of preferential trade agreements. Region-wide functional collaboration now goes substantially beyond trade, however, ranging across such areas as financial cooperation, disaster management, transborder crime, tourism, energy and environmental issues.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Israel, Asia
  • Author: Emma Hutchison
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Australian National University Department of International Relations
  • Abstract: This paper examines how traumatic events can influence the constitution of identity and community in international relations. It demonstrates that emotions are central to how individuals and societies experience and work through the legacy of catastrophe. Often neglected in scholarly analysis of international relations, emotions can become pivotal sites for the renewal of political stability and social control. Key to this process are practices of representation. They provide individual experiences of trauma with a collective and often international dimension. They often smooth over feelings of shock and terror and unite individuals in a spirit of shared experience and mutual understanding. The paper illustrates the ensuing dynamics by examining the media's portrayal of the Bali bombing of 12 October 2002. Focusing on photographs and the stories that accompany them, the paper shows how representations of trauma may provide a sense of collective solace that can, in turn, underwrite the emotional dynamics of a political community.
  • Topic: International Relations, Political Violence, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Israel, Australia/Pacific
  • Author: MURIELLE COZETTE
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Australian National University Department of International Relations
  • Abstract: The realism school of thought in international relations is often accused of presenting politics as an autonomous sphere which does or should exclude ethical considerations, and of providing a tragic vision of politics which precludes any belief in progress. These accusations are particularly misplaced when applied to Raymond Aron, a leading classical realist whose insights are rarely investigated in the discipline. The article challenges the perception of Aron as a 'mainstream' classical realist and emphasises the distinctiveness of his formulation of realism by focusing on his views on ethics, politics and progress. It demonstrates that Aron promotes a 'morality of wisdom' which gives a central place to the defence of values alongside considerations of power. He also provides a definition of survival which stresses the importance of shared values for the existence of political communities, and consequently the need to uphold them even though ethical perfection cannot be achieved in the political sphere. Aron's ideas are finally underpinned by Kantian elements. Advocating not so much faith in a determined future, but rather hope sustained by reason, his realism provides a middle ground between moralism and cynicism. Aron therefore provides a very distinctive European version of realism which demonstrates the richness of realist arguments upon morality, politics and progress.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, International Political Economy, Politics, Political Theory
  • Author: Satish Chand, Michael Clemens
  • Publication Date: 09-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: Does the emigration of highly-skilled workers deplete local human capital? The answer is not obvious if migration prospects induce human capital formation. We analyze a unique natural quasi-experiment in the Republic of the Fiji Islands, where political shocks have provoked one of the largest recorded exoduses of skilled workers from a developing country. Mass emigration began unexpectedly and has occurred only in a well-defined subset of the population, creating a treatment group that foresaw likely emigration and two different quasi-control groups that did not. We use rich census and administrative micro data to address a range of concerns about experimental validity. This allows plausible causal attribution of post-shock changes in human capital accumulation to changes in emigration patterns. We show that high rates of emigration by tertiary-educated Fiji Islanders not only raised investment in tertiary education in Fiji; they moreover raised the stock of tertiary educated people in Fiji—net of departures.
  • Topic: International Relations, Education, Markets, Migration
  • Political Geography: Asia, Australia/Pacific
  • Author: Arvind Subramanian, Aaditya Mattoo
  • Publication Date: 10-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: There is a fundamental shift taking place in the world economy to which the multilateral trading system has failed to adapt. The Doha process focused on issues of limited significance while the burning issues of the day were not even on the negotiating agenda. The paper advances five propositions: the traditional negotiating dynamic, driven by private sector interests largely in the rich countries, is running out of steam; the world economy is moving broadly from conditions of relative abundance to relative scarcity, and so economic security has become a paramount concern for consumers, workers, and ordinary citizens; international economic integration can contribute to enhanced security; addressing these new concerns–relating to food, energy and economic security-requires a wider agenda of multilateral cooperation, involving not just the WTO but other multilateral institutions; and despite shifts in economic power across countries, the commonality of interests and scope for give-and-take on these new issues make multilateral cooperation worth attempting.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Privatization
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: Richard Dalton(ed.)
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: The dispute over Iran's nuclear programme is deadlocked. Five years of negotiations, proposals, UN resolutions and sanctions have failed to achieve a breakthrough. As diplomacy struggles and Iran continues to advance its nuclear capabilities, the issue becomes ever more grave and pressing.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Oil, Weapons of Mass Destruction, International Security
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Kiran Klaus Patel
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Comparing the rise of transnational history in the United States and Germany is difficult, mainly because of the many connections between these historiographies. Still, the article argues that the paths into a transnational historiography were quite different on both sides of the Atlantic. Apart from similarities and connections, the text therefore highlights the intellectual as well as institutional differences of the debates in the U.S.A. and Germany.
  • Topic: International Relations, Political Theory
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Europe, Germany
  • Author: James Cronin
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
  • Abstract: The so-called “special relationship” has been a fixture of international relations since at least 1940, but it seemed of declining significance during the 1960s and 1970s. It has nevertheless been revived, even refounded, since then; and it has served as the strategic base on which a new Anglo-American vision of the world has been articulated. At the core of the new connection, and the vision to which it gave rise, is a strong preference for the market and a set of foreign and domestic policies that privilege markets and see their expansion as critical to peace, prosperity and the expansion of democracy. This essay examines the origins of this new paradigm as a response to a set of interrelated crises in the 1970s, its elaboration and application during the 1980s under Reagan and Thatcher, its curious history since the end of the Cold War, and the way it evolved into the failed policies of the post-9/11 era.
  • Topic: International Relations, Cold War, Political Theory
  • Political Geography: America, Europe
  • Author: Barbara G. Haskel
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
  • Abstract: This paper attempts to explain how an intergovernmental process among four countries to “harmonize” the “architecture” of their higher education systems in under ten years turned into an “OMC-type” process with a full role for the European Commission and a membership of forty-six countries, a system which appears to have had some substantial results. The paper argues that the speed of the process is accounted for by a “coordination imperative,” and that the sustainability (institutionalization) of the process has been a product of the initiatives for goals, instruments, support structures, and measurements generated by an “entrepreneurial alliance” composed of the Commission and the European Universities Association as “drivers” of the process and as solver of a collective action problem among social actors interested in university re-form, in the context of a permissive consensus of the member states.
  • Topic: International Relations, Education
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Bahri Yilmaz
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
  • Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to examine the foreign trade patterns and/or specialization in foreign trade of three EU member countries – namely, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and candidate country Turkey – and to compare the foreign trade patterns with the EU/12 in the period 1995- 2005. The paper is divided into seven main sections. The first section summarizes the export and import developments of the countries in question between the years 1995 and 2005. The second section describes the methodology and data sets. Empirical analysis is found in the third section, where in five subsections we investigate international competitiveness and trade specialization using different indices. In the fourth part of the research we compare the dynamic products in world exports with dynamic products in the exports of the four countries. The final section gives brief conclusions drawn from the results and considers the future position of Turkey within the enlarged EU. In this research we do not intend to explain why the foreign trade patterns are different in the considered countries. We simply try to show whether and where there are any differences in foreign trade specialisation among the four countries and EU/12.
  • Topic: International Relations, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Europe, Turkey, Spain, Portugal, South Sudan
  • Author: Rosalind Latiner Raby
  • Publication Date: 09-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute of International Education
  • Abstract: U.S. students and teachers are going abroad in growing numbers, gaining the international exposure and cross-cultural knowledge that will prepare them for their future role in an interconnected world. According to the Open Doors 2007 Report on International Educational Exchange, 223,534 U.S. students studied abroad for academic credit in 2005/06, an increase of 8.5 percent over the previous year, and a 150 percent increase over the past decade. Still, only a small percentage of U.S. students study abroad during their college years. The late Senator Paul Simon urged that America send abroad as many of our students as those coming to the U.S. from abroad, currently 583,000 and rising. IIE shares this goal of doubling the number of U.S. students abroad. It is imperative that efforts to expand the number of students studying abroad make efficient use of existing resources and insure that access to education abroad is available to all, including students of underrepresented economic and social groups.
  • Topic: International Relations, Education, Globalization, Government
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Robert Gutierrez, Rajika Bhandari, Daniel Obst
  • Publication Date: 05-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute of International Education
  • Abstract: According to the Institute of International Education's most recent data, over 223,000 U.S. students annually study abroad for academic credit, and there are widespread calls to double, triple or even quadruple that number in the coming decade, sending students to more diverse destinations around the globe. Where would another 300,000-700,000 Americans go to study abroad? Which university systems, especially in the non-traditional destinations, have the capacity to absorb large increases when countries like India, China, Egypt, Turkey and Brazil are struggling to accommodate the demand for higher education by their own citizens? To begin addressing these important questions, the Institute of International Education launched Meeting America's Global Education Challenge, a focused policy research initiative which explores from multiple perspectives the challenge of substantially expanding the numbers and destinations of U.S. students studying overseas. In May 2007, IIE published its first White Paper in this series, Current Trends in U.S. Study Abroad the Impact of Strategic Diversity Initiatives.
  • Topic: International Relations, Education, Globalization
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Europe, Turkey, Brazil, Egypt
  • Author: Monty G. Marshall
  • Publication Date: 10-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: A public debate over the threat posed by weak, fragile, failing, and failed states and what can or should be done about them has become increasing visible and vocal since the attacks of September 11, 2001. As President George W. Bush declared in his 2002 National Security Strategy report: “America is now threatened less by conquering states than ... by failing ones.” This debate has grown particularly acute as the United States' prolonged military response to the war on global terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq has revealed the difficulties of controlling militancy and extremism by direct military intervention and enforced democratic change. The challenges associated with weak or failing states have garnered increase d attention by the policy community, but major differences about how to assess the level of risk in any given case remain.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Development, Diplomacy, Government, International Security
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, America
  • Author: Daniel S. Hamilton, Joseph P. Quinlan
  • Publication Date: 11-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: Globalization is changing all of our lives as the pace of economic interdependence grows between developed and emerging countries. Debate thrives about whether globalization has been good or bad for European consumers, workers, companies and governments and what are the prospects in the future. In a dynamic and uncertain world currently beset by a global financial crisis and a looming recession can Europe act to take advantage of the opportunities created by globalization and mitigate its challenges?
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Germany
  • Author: Richard W. Soudriette
  • Publication Date: 11-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Academy of Political Science
  • Abstract: As President-elect Obama prepares to assume office on January 20, 2009, it is important for the incoming Administration to consider keeping America's long standing bipartisan commitment to promoting democracy worldwide. President-elect Obama spoke eloquently about the need to engage America's allies and friends to address global challenges. To continue promoting democracy in the future, the United States must engage other democracies and tap multilateral resources such as the Community of Democracies.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States