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  • Author: Dmitri V. Trenin
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: This report compares Russian and Chinese security perceptions and explains how they shape the two countries' policies towards each other. It argues that the modern relationship between the two countries, formed in the late 19th and 20th centuries, was turned on its head at the start of the 21st century. China has now become a powerful factor affecting a whole range of Russian policies, both domestic and foreign. The paper also argues that, while Russia is not central to China's foreign relations, and non-existent in China's domestic politics, good relations with Moscow are an important supporting element in Beijing's overall strategy of reclaiming China's 'rightful place in the world'. It concludes that while both countries need each other and would benefit from a stable political relationship and close economic ties, both Moscow and Beijing lack the long-term strategies to create such a bond.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: Russia, China, Asia
  • Author: Heidi Reisinger
  • Publication Date: 06-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: NATO Defense College
  • Abstract: NATO's decision to withdraw combat troops from Afghanistan has forced the Alliance to think long and hard about the "how" associated with such a withdrawal. As a result the strategic importance of the five Central Asian states Kazakhstan, Kyrrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, a politically neglected region, mostly seen as a supplier of raw materials and energy, is likely to increase significantly. During the past ten years the ISAF mission has focused its attention on Afghanistan itself. The only neighboring country taken into serious consideration has been Pakistan, as emblematically shown in the US AfPak policy approach. North of Afghanistan, the Central Asian states have been left on the sidelines and their strategic and political role has been underestimated. However, they are now back on the political agenda as an indispensable transit ground.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, Natural Resources
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan
  • Author: Karl-Heinz Kamp
  • Publication Date: 09-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: NATO Defense College
  • Abstract: The dispute about who will become a new NATO member and when is set to make it back on the transatlantic agenda. Debates in the Alliance have for years been dominated by the operations in Afghanistan or the evolution of NATO's partnership approach, but now the enlargement question is coming up again and might lead to strong disagreements among the allies. All NATO nations certainly concur that the door for new members should remain open; the question is which countries should join the Alliance, and when?
  • Topic: International Relations, NATO, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan
  • Author: Jean-loup Samaan
  • Publication Date: 10-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: NATO Defense College
  • Abstract: Eight years after NATO initiated its engagement with Gulf countries through the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI), the results have been modest, not to say disappointing. True, some recent achievements are worth mentioning: the participation in 2011 of the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in Operation Unified Protector in Libya, or the appointment, the same year, of the first UAE Ambassador to NATO, which represented an unprecedented and innovative way to strengthen the partnership.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Reform
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Libya, Arabia, United Arab Emirates
  • Author: Patrick Keller
  • Publication Date: 10-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: NATO Defense College
  • Abstract: The American President is still the most influential actor in international affairs. Despite the talk of American decline and the evidence of rising powers, despite the new complexities of globalization and the increased relevance of non-state actors, the U.S. President continues to play a special role. As head of the strongest of all national economies, commander in chief of the mightiest armed forces in the history of the world, and leader of the present-day democracy with the oldest constitution, his policies and his bearing shape international politics more than those of any other actor. It is thus understandable that not just the American people but also U.S. allies in NATO and the world at large follow the current presidential campaign with keen interest. Given that the United States is first among equals in the Alliance, strategists in NATO member states have a particular desire to discern the future President's stance on international security affairs because they will need to plan accordingly. However, in contrasting the positions of President Barack Obama and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, they encounter three basic problems.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Regime Change
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: James Boutilier
  • Publication Date: 12-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: NATO Defense College
  • Abstract: NATO is at a crossroads. This is not the first time that Brussels has been faced with critical decisions about the direction, character and raison d'être of this unique and remarkable organization. But this time the stakes are even higher. The major centers of global power are all weak simultaneously for individual and inter-connected reasons. The greatest power on earth and NATO's banker, the United States, is confronting almost insurmountable levels of debt and talk about the end of the American empire has become commonplace. The European community is reeling from the cumulative effect of debt crises. And China, the 21st century's "workshop of the world" (and in the eyes of some a potential savor of ailing economies in Europe) has begun to see its economy slow disturbingly. At the same time, two other phenomena are unfolding; the rapid and profound shift in the global centre of economic gravity from the Euro-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region and the winding down of NATO's involvement in Afghanistan. The latter, of course, raises the inevitable question: "What next?" The former raises a related question: "Does NATO's future lie in Asia?"
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, Hegemony
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, China, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Rohan Gunaratna Gunaratna
  • Publication Date: 01-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: Transnational terrorism is likely to remain the most profound threat in 2011. Politically motivated groups that seek to legitimize their thinking and actions by using, misusing and misinterpreting the religious text , will continue to dominate the global threat landscape. While homegrown and group terrorism are likely to remain at the forefront, homegrown terrorism in particular will continue to be a formidable challenge for security. There will also be more pressure for Western military troops in Afghanistan, both in combat and support roles, to return home due to the decreasing public support for the war and domestic political considerations.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Terrorism, International Security, Counterinsurgency
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Afghanistan
  • Author: Tim Wegenast, Georg Strüver
  • Publication Date: 04-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: According to conventional wisdom, strategic natural resources like oil are harmful to international peace. Nonetheless, there is little empirical quantitative work on the link between resource abundance and interstate conflicts. Analyzing the impact of oil on militarized interstate disputes on a monadic level of analysis, this paper shows that oil in fact influences the conflict potential between countries. Results of logistic regressions suggest that a high absolute oil production is associated with an increased risk of dispute initiation. Per capita oil production, in contrast, does not seem to influence a country's propensity to start militarized conflicts. We also find that while very small oil-rich countries are more frequently the object of military actions, large oil producers seem to be generally spared from foreign attacks. We conclude that specific causal mechanisms such as an increased military capacity or the indulgence of the international community (rather than domestic political conditions inherent to the rentier state) might be particularly useful to explain our findings.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Oil, War, Natural Resources
  • Political Geography: Russia, Georgia
  • Author: Janne Bjerre Christensen
  • Publication Date: 04-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This report offers a critical examination of Iran's influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Two points are made: that Iran's top priority is its own regime's survival and its regional policies are directed by its national security concerns. Secondly, that Iran's engagements in Afghanistan are clearly guided by the presence of the US. Iran's predominant interest is in stabilizing Afghanistan, but as long as Afghanistan is neither safe nor stable, Iran will play a double game and engage with its regional neighbours according to the US–Iran equation. Deterrence, counter-containment and competition are the keywords in these complex relations. The report outlines Iran's reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan, its political platform and 'soft power', and the bonds of mutual dependency in terms of water rights, refugees and drug trafficking. It examines Iran's alleged military interventions and the reasons for playing this double game. Lastly, the report discusses Iran's tense relationship with Pakistan with regard to both Afghanistan and the troubled region of Baluchistan.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, Power Politics, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iran
  • Author: Alexander Wilner
  • Publication Date: 05-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: With the assistance of Adam Seitz of the Marine Corps University, the Burke Chair has compiled a series of chronological reports that focus on Iranian perceptions of national security and assess Iran‟s intentions concerning competition with the US.
  • Topic: International Relations, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iran, Middle East
  • Author: Sakiko Fukuda-Parr, Carol Messineo
  • Publication Date: 04-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper reviews the concept of human security, its use in policy debates and the academic literature on the concept as an idea in international relations. We argue that in spite of the controversy, human security is an important concept that should not be ignored as a significant discourse in contemporary debates about the world order. It opens up new lines of analysis, gives voice to new actors. Its value added in the security field is that it focuses attention on human beings and integrates non-military mechanisms as means to security. Its value added in the development field is to focus attention on downside risks.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Human Rights, Human Welfare
  • Author: Lawrence Woocher
  • Publication Date: 06-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United States Institute of Peace
  • Abstract: A wide consensus has emerged in recent years that successful policymaking and programming in conflict situations must start with an accurate understanding of local context, conflict actors, causes, and the dynamic relationships among them. This recognition has led to a plethora of new analytic initiatives, but little evident effort to exploit potential synergies between conflict assessment and national security intelligence analysis. Conflict assessment and intelligence analysis have different origins, aims, and methods but also a number of important elements of commonality. They both aim to enhance understanding of complicated sociopolitical situations to support better decision making and face many common challenges, including accuracy, precision, timeliness, and relevance. Conflict assessment is marked by its action orientation, its flexibility, and its emphasis on collaborative methods to elicit views on the conflict from diverse perspectives. These attributes may lead conflict assessment processes to be especially able to pick up "weak signals" and to promote cooperation and enhance understanding of the "other side's" perspectives. These strengths of conflict assessment may at times come at the cost of analytic rigor, precision, and sensitivity to the possibility that some stakeholders could provide misleading information. Intelligence analysis is designed to produce objective assessments for government national security decision makers through rigorous evaluation of "all source" data (including classified information) in a competitive environment. Intelligence analysts' independence from policymakers and their adherence to explicit standards of analytic tradecraft should help lead to high-quality analytic products. Potential pitfalls of intelligence analysis include being too reliant on data from clandestine and highly technical sources, being subject to political pressure, and being insufficiently collaborative. Three important global trends tend to push conflict assessment and intelligence analysis toward convergence: the changing nature of national security, the increasing salience of "open source" information, and the growing recognition of the limitations of lone analysts. Deliberate efforts to draw on the methods of both conflict assessment and intelligence analysis will yield fuller and more useful analysis, which should in turn improve the formulation of conflict management, peacebuilding, and national security strategies. Using tools of conflict assessment and intelligence analysis in tandem is one specific step toward fully realizing the complementarity of these two analytic approaches.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Intelligence
  • Political Geography: Germany
  • Publication Date: 06-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: On September 23, 2010, the United Nations Security Council held a summit meeting on the maintenance of international peace and security, which is the primary responsibility of the Council. The summit was initiated by Turkey, a nonpermanent member of the Council in 2009-2010 and holder of the rotating presidency for September 2010. It was attended by nine heads of state and government and six ministers, and chaired by Abdullah Gul, President of the Republic of Turkey. The resulting presidential statement (S/PRST/2010/18, reproduced in the Annex to this report) reaffirmed that international peace and security require a more comprehensive and coherent approach. The Council also pledged to continue to strengthen the crisis-management toolbox at its disposal, including preventive diplomacy, peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding, and to adapt it to changing circumstances. In addition, the statement reiterated the Council's support for the protection of civilians and its commitment to strengthening strategic partnerships with regional and subregional organizations and other relevant players. Further, it reaffirmed the importance of women in all aspects of prevention and resolution of conflicts and underlined the importance of addressing the root causes of conflict.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Peacekeeping
  • Political Geography: Turkey, United Nations
  • Author: J.W. Sanders, Ukachukwu Ndukwu
  • Publication Date: 08-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: Reasoning about a distributed system that exhibits a combination of probabilistic and temporal behaviour does not seem to be easy with current techniques. The reason is the interaction between probability and abstraction, made worse by remote synchronisation. In this paper the recently proposed language ptsc (for probability, time and shared-variable concurrency) is extended by constructs for interleaving and local block. Both enhance a designer's ability to modularise a design; the latter also permits a design to be compared with its more abstract specification, by concealing appropriately chosen design variables. Laws of the extended language are studied and applied in a case study consisting of a faulty register-transfer-level design.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, International Organization, United Nations, Political Theory
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Max G. Manwaring
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
  • Abstract: From the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 to the end of World War II and beyond the Cold War period, the prevailing assumption was that interstate warfare would continue to be the dominant threat to global peace and prosperity. Today's wars, by contrast, are intrastate conflicts that take place mainly within—not across—national borders. As a consequence, the disease of intrastate conflict has been allowed to rage relatively unchecked across large areas of the world, and has devastated the lives of millions of human beings. At the same time, indirect and implicit unmet needs (e.g., poverty) lead people into greater and greater personal and collective insecurity.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: This is the fourth edition of the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy index. It reflects the situation as of the beginning of December 2011. The first edition, published in The Economist's The World in 2007, measured the state of democracy in September 2006; the second edition covered the situation towards the end of 2008; and the third as of November 2010. The index provides a snapshot of the state of democracy worldwide for 165 independent states and two territories—this covers almost the entire population of the world and the vast majority of the world's independent states (micro states are excluded). The overall Democracy index is based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism; civil liberties; the functioning of government; political participation; and political culture. Countries are placed within one of four types of regimes: full democracies; flawed democracies; hybrid regimes; and authoritarian regimes.
  • Topic: International Relations, Civil Society, Democratization, Government, Politics
  • Author: Andreas Bøje Forsby
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: What are the implications of China's rapid rise for international order? This report seeks to answer the question from an identity perspective. The key argument is that China is currently undergoing an identity shift towards Sino-centrism, that is, a self-centering tendency to turn narrative attention towards the internally generated, specifically Chinese hallmarks associated with China's civilizational past and cultural heritage.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Culture
  • Political Geography: China, Israel
  • Author: Anna Di Lellio
  • Publication Date: 08-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
  • Abstract: Serbia, Kosovo, and Turkey, all European Union applicants, recognize that the possibility of European belonging as historical reality is a crucial attribute for acceptance. These countries have all built national stories rooted in the Medieval Ottoman conquest of the Western Balkans and distanced themselves from the “Orient” and from Islam. By doing so, they have engaged in a debate with a “thick,” rather than a “thin” conception of Europe; they have tried to measure up to Europe as a traditional community of values defined by its Christian character, rather than the dynamic cosmopolitan Europe of law and standards which is officially embodied by the Union. Paradoxically, the revival of these national memories not only anchors a particular configuration of national time and space for Serbs, Albanians, and Turks. It mirrors a concern with identity, very present at the core of Europe, which is often resolved through the affirmation of an allegedly authentic and coherent European Christian tradition.
  • Topic: International Relations, Nationalism, Religion, History
  • Political Geography: Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans
  • Author: J. Jackson Ewing (ed), Alistair D.B. Cook (ed)
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies
  • Abstract: The year 2011 has seen the further prioritisation of nontraditional security (NTS) issues throughout research and policymaking circles in the Asia-Pacific region. Regional trends and events have highlighted the need for strategies that can help people, communities, states and organisations address multifarious security challenges, thus propelling the NTS platform to a higher stratum of political and institutional discourse.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Health, Poverty, Natural Disasters, Food
  • Political Geography: Asia, Australia/Pacific
  • Author: Nele Noesselt
  • Publication Date: 04-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: With the beginning of the post-Maoist era, the focus of Chinese foreign policy shifted from ideology and revolution to pragmatism and reform. Chinese scholars in the field of International Relations (IR) are now encouraged to develop abstract scientific analyses of China's international environment. This requires not only the handling of IR theories and methods of foreign policy analysis (FPA), but also a sound knowledge of the organizational structures and policy principles of other states.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: China, Europe
  • Author: Jochen Hippler
  • Publication Date: 06-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Development and Peace
  • Abstract: Western foreign policy is increasingly attempting to influence and reform the internal political situation and societies in target countries (for example to achieve democratization or economic reform), instead of restricting itself to inter-governmental exchange. The record of success in this regard is hardly encouraging. Does Western foreign policy have the necessary strategies and instruments to achieve these goals? This paper will analyze the mix of foreign policy interests involved, the development of strategy, and its instruments. It then focuses on the necessary preconditions for success in the target countries, both in society and the political system. In a next step the paper analyses the problems and limits of a policy of external reform by Western governments. Finally it offers a series of short policy recommendations.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, International Security, Foreign Aid
  • Author: Sally Khalifa Isaac
  • Publication Date: 03-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: NATO Defense College
  • Abstract: This paper was researched and written before the upheaval in the Arab world. It highlights many aspects of the limitations in NATO's relations with its Arab partners. It argues that the current settings governing NATO-Arab relations feature no concrete cooperation schemes.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Africa, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Daniel Flemes, Thorsten Wojczewski
  • Publication Date: 02-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: Given the importance of the assertion or prevention of regional leadership for the future global order, this paper examines the strategies and resources being used to assert regional leadership as well as the reactions of other states within and outside the respective regions. Secondary powers play a key role in the regional acceptance of a leadership claim. In this article we identify the factors motivating secondary powers to accept or contest this claim. Three regional dyads, marked by different degrees of “contested leadership,” are analyzed: Brazil vs. Venezuela, Indis vs. Pakistan, and South Africa vs. Nigeria. The research outcomes demonstrate that the strategies of regional powers and the reactions of secondary powers result from the distribution of material capabilities and their application, the regional powers' ability to project ideational resources, the respective national interests of regional and secondary powers, and the regional impact of external powers.
  • Topic: International Relations, Globalization, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Africa, South Asia, India, Brazil, South America, Venezuela, Nigeria
  • Author: Nadine Godehardt, Oliver W. Lembcke
  • Publication Date: 02-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: Seit einiger Zeit stehen Regionen (wieder) auf der Agenda der Theoriediskussionen in den Internationalen Beziehungen. Es ist u.a. von einer „emerging regional architecture of world politics“ die Rede und von der Zukunft eines „multiregional system of international relations“ oder sogar einer „world of regions“. In dieser Perspektive geht es gegenwärtig nicht mehr allein um die Frage, welche Strukturvorgaben des internationalen Systems für eine neue Weltpolitik zu berücksichtigen sind. Vielmehr ist mit Blick auf die regionalen Ordnungen erforderlich zu fragen, wann und unter welchen Umständen die Strukturen und Akteurskonstellationen für regionale Kontexte überhaupt Bedeutung haben. Allerdings ist der politiktheoretische Status der Regionen in den Internationalen Beziehungen alles andere als klar. Mit diesem Beitrag werden zwei Ziele verfolgt: Einerseits wird die bisherige Diskussion mithilfe von drei Schlüsselkonzepten – Kooperation, Regionale Sicherheitskomplexe und Externalitäten – strukturiert; andererseits wird das konzeptionelle Verhältnis von Regionen, politischen Räumen und regionalen Ordnungen diskutiert. Dabei werden Kriterien – geografische Lage, politische Entscheidungen, Drittwirkungen dieser Entscheidungen – vorgestellt, die eine weiterführende Analyse verschiedener Typen regionaler Ordnungen ermöglichen.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Regional Cooperation, Political Theory
  • Author: Whitney Shepardson
  • Publication Date: 02-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: If the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) did not exist today, the United States would not seek to create it. In 1949, it made sense in the face of a potential Soviet invasion to forge a bond in the North Atlantic area among the United States, Canada, and the west European states. Today, if the United States were starting from scratch in a world of transnational threats, the debate would be over whether to follow liberal and neoconservative calls for an alliance of democracies without regard to geography or to develop a great power concert envisioned by the realists to uphold the current order.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, NATO, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Security
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Canada, Soviet Union
  • Author: Hakan Altinay
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: “Civics” often refers to the familiar constellation of rights and responsibilities emanating from citizenship in a nation-state. But what about global civics? Would this be feasible—or even desirable?
  • Topic: International Relations, Civil Society, Economics, International Cooperation
  • Author: Bohdana Dimitrovova
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This Working Document explores the implications of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) as an ambitious EU foreign policy for the development of a European political community. It suggests that the ENP can be viewed as an attempt to reconcile two potentially contradictory processes. The first – 'border confirming' – is about confirming border areas of demarcation and division, in which borders are conceived as boundary lines, frontier zones or barriers that protect the European Union and its citizens. The second – 'border transcending' – consists of a challenge to open EU borders and involves the transformation of the EU's external boundaries into zones of interactions, opportunities and exchanges, with the emphasis on the transcendence of boundaries. To unravel some of the contradictions surrounding the highly contested phenomena of mobility in the neighbourhood, this paper analyses three bordering strategies: state borders, the imperial analogy and borders as networks. Each corresponds to different forms of territoriality and implies a different mode of control over the population.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Organization, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Michael A. Levi, Katherine Michonski
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Climate change has become a top-tier subject for international negotiation and debate, not only for environment specialists but also for people and institutions focused on economics, development, energy, technology, and other pressing international issues. Yet most discussions of institutions and governance for climate change remain narrow. Observers often focus on the negotiation process under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including the Kyoto Protocol (and more recently the Copenhagen Accord), along with its associated institutions, equating success and failure in combating climate change with success and failure in those arenas. Efforts to broaden the multilateral governance discussion beyond climate-specific forums still tend to emphasize how climate efforts fit within broader environment challenges and institutions.
  • Topic: International Relations, Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, International Affairs
  • Author: Jeffrey Mankoff
  • Publication Date: 04-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Like much of the world, Russia has been in the midst of a serious economic crisis since the late summer of 2008. Although the worst appears to be over, Russia will continue to feel its effects longer than many other industrialized countries, largely because of a rigid economy burdened with an overweening state role. The recognition that Russia faces serious long-term challenges has emboldened President Dmitry Medvedev and others to call for far-reaching economic restructuring. If successful, their economic policies could undermine the semi-authoritarian, state-capitalist model developed under Prime Minister and former president Vladimir Putin. Although concrete reforms have so far been limited, Medvedev's demands for change (seconded in some cases by Putin) have acquired increasing momentum in recent months. The speed of Russia's recovery and obstacles along the way will play a major role in determining both the success of Medvedev's call for modernization and the course of Russia's foreign policy since a quicker recovery would diminish the pressure for fundamental reform and lessen the need for caution internationally.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Affairs, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Daniel P. Erikson
  • Publication Date: 04-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: The presidency of Barack Obama ushered in a welcome honeymoon period in US-Latin American relations following eight years of the Bush administration's polarizing policies towards the region. Early optimism has been tempered by the reappearance of tensions in hemispheric relations. They include the rise of Brazil as a regional power, the role of Venezuela and the continued strain in US-Cuban relations. Regional relations are further complicated by China's growing economic presence in Latin America, increased ties with Iran and Russia, different US and Latin reactions to the June 2009 coup in Honduras, and the crisis response to the January 2010 earthquake in Haiti. Still, the US has potential to advance a strategy of substantive, issue oriented engagement designed to rekindle the early goodwill that resulted from Obama's election to the White House.
  • Topic: International Relations, Diplomacy
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, China, Latin America, Haiti
  • Author: Jennifer L. Hochschild
  • Publication Date: 01-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
  • Abstract: One possible outcome of the economic crash of 2008 was that the majority or mainstream members of a society would direct their anger and fear against the minority or marginal members of their society. Commentators on television or the radio would claim, "it's all the fault of the immigrants!" or "if we didn't hand over so much of our tax dollars to the poor, the economy would not have deteriorated so much," or "social benefits to African Americans [or German Turks] have distorted the housing market." Citizens would come to believe these assertions, politicians would echo them – and the upshot would be not only a deteriorating national and international economy but also increased hostility and fear among racial, ethnic, or nationality groups in a country. Social solidarity would decline, perhaps irrevocably.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Politics, Social Stratification, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Africa, America, Europe, Germany
  • Author: Hakan Altinay
  • Publication Date: 04-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: Worldwide, there has been a recent increase in expressions of cynicism. We are reminded that all power is hard power, and that being loved or respected is no substitute for being feared. The great power game of nations always continues, we are forewarned, even when a higher goal or rhetoric is evoked. Superpowers are selfish, arbitrary, and dangerous nations, and they should not be embarrassed to be so and not feel constrained by international legitimacy and laws. We are cautioned against assuming that the rise of the world's emerging powers is doing anything to the status of United States as the sole superpower. Naturally, it would be a folly to think that global public opinion is in effect a “second superpower,” or even a crucial factor. Such concerns are the Lilliputians binding an unsuspecting Gulliver. Anyone harboring naïve views needs to be told that good intentions are at best a distraction and a nuisance, and at worst a recipe for disaster, given their imprudence. Cynics prefer to be unconcerned about the achievements of transnational normative action, such as abolishing the slave trade or establishing the International Criminal Court.
  • Topic: International Relations, Emerging Markets, Governance
  • Political Geography: Russia, China, India, Brazil
  • Author: Sven Behrendt
  • Publication Date: 05-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have become dominant players in global finance and world affairs, controlling considerable financial assets. Their investment behavior continues to resonate across the world economy and their increasingly extroverted investment policy prompted a political backlash in mature economies. Reacting to this backlash, in October 2008 a group of 26 SWFs commit-ted themselves to transparency, good governance, and accountability standards by signing a voluntary code of principles, the “Generally Accepted Principles and Practices,” for SWFs (GAAP), also known as the “Santiago Principles.”
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Sovereign Wealth Funds
  • Author: Liu Yongtao
  • Publication Date: 02-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: Using “speech act” theory as its starting point, the article ponders the sources of hostility and conflict in global politics, arguing that discourse as a social practice is an increasingly crucial but a more or less neglected source of (in)security culture, postuating that greater attention should be taken to it in international relations studies. The article states that the politics of (in)security, conventionally accepted as “objec Using “speech act” theory as its starting point, the article ponders the sources of hostility and conflict in global politics, arguing that discourse as a social practice is an increasingly crucial but a more or less neglected source of (in) security culture, postuating that greater attention should be taken to it in international relations studies. The article states that the politics of (in)security, conventionally accepted as “objective” and “natural”, are in fact a socially, politically and lexically (re)constructed and (re)interpreted by nation-States. Discourse and meanings, in turn, can help (re)produce the effects of hostility and conflict between Nation-States. This article illustrates the importance of designing a language policy in international relations by taking U.S. president George W. Bush's rhetoric of “axis of evil” as an example and thus revealing the extents of causal links between the improper use of language and the construction of antagonistic tensions between the U.S. and its lexically targeted counter-parts.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Communications
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Glenn R. Gassen
  • Publication Date: 05-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Since Paavo Lipponen left the Prime Minister's Office in 2003, Finland's relationship with Germany seems to have grown more distant. While Lipponen had a markedly pro-German attitude, the present government has adopted a more sober and pragmatic approach. But does this change in rhetoric indicate a different approach? A decade ago, it seemed self-evident that for Finland, Germany was considered “as an important – if not the most important – partner in Europe.”1But what importance does Germany hold for Finland today?
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: Europe, Finland, Germany
  • Author: Irfan Shahid
  • Publication Date: 01-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies
  • Abstract: The tragic events of Black September, 2001, the year that opened the twenty-first century and the third millennium, more popularly called 9/11, is now a landmark in American history that is deeply carved in the psyche of the American people and is annually perpetuated by commemorative anniversaries. It practically destroyed the bridges that had been constructed between America and the Arab-Muslim world. What had been America's main adversary in the Cold War, namely Communism, has now become the Arabs and the Islamic world, which, ironically, had been America's allies against Communism.
  • Topic: International Relations, Islam, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Erik Beukel
  • Publication Date: 01-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The South China Sea is subject to competing claims of sovereignty by the littoral states. Due to the number of claimants and the complexity of claims, it is called the “mother of all territorial disputes”. China is far the biggest country in the region and claims sovereignty over almost all the South China Sea. This Working Paper elaborates the claims and considers the implications for China's neighborhood relations and the alignments in the Asia-Pacific. The focus is on two faces of power in China's policy, military power and soft power, after China's seizure of Mischief Reef in 1995 that upset its neighbors. China attaches great weight to developing good neighborhood relations and has become an advocate of soft power. However, when it concerns the South China Sea the soft power approach is combined with a continuing use of military power to strengthen its position. It is concluded that the two faces of power present China with new unwieldy challenges.
  • Topic: International Relations, Territorial Disputes
  • Political Geography: China, Israel, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Hannes Meissner
  • Publication Date: 05-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: Although much attention is paid to the Caspian region with regard to energy issues, the domestic consequences of the region's resource production have so far constituted a neglected field of research. A systematic survey of the latest research trends in the economic and political causalities of the resource curse and of rentier states reveals that there is a need for context analysis. In reference to this, the paper traces any shortcomings and promising approaches in the existent body of literature on the Caspian region. Following on from this, the paper then proposes a new approach; specifically, one in which any differences and similarities in the context conditions are captured. This enables a more precise exploration of the exact ways in which they form contemporary post-Soviet Caspian rentier states.
  • Topic: International Relations, Democratization, Development, Political Theory, Natural Resources
  • Political Geography: Central Asia, Caspian Sea
  • Author: Jean-Michel Severino, Olivier Ray
  • Publication Date: 07-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: The development business has become much more complex in the past decade, with actors proliferating and collaboration fragmenting. This trend is characteristic of the change from collective action to what the authors term hypercollective action. Such a shift brings new energy and resources to international development, but also more difficulty managing global public policy. Severino and Ray use the lessons of the Paris Declaration—the first large-scale effort to coordinate hypercollective action—as a starting point for envisioning a new conceptual framework to manage the complexity of current international collaboration. They offer concrete suggestions to improve the management of global policies, including new ways to share information, align the goals of disparate actors, and create more capable bodies for international collaboration.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Political Economy
  • Author: Augusto Varas
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre
  • Abstract: Significant changes have taken place in the distribution of political power in Latin American countries over the past decade, at both national and hemispheric level. A growing trend toward trans-regionalisation is evident in the political and trade relations of these countries. Changes in regional power dynamics have been further hastened as Latin American countries have distanced themselves from the United States. Moreover, the weakness of US hemispheric policy, resulting from the loss of strategic regional influence, has been compounded by the political and ideological changes in Latin America over the past decade.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Globalization, Political Economy, Power Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Latin America
  • Author: Lorraine Elliott
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies
  • Abstract: Efforts to understand the connection between climate change and national, regional and international security have fuelled something of a climate security industry, evidenced in a range of reports from governments, international organisations, and non-governmental organisations. In much of this, particularly those works produced by defence agencies and individual governments, the focus has been on threats to national security through civil unrest and violence that derive from competition for resources, access to environmental services, and the unregulated movement of people in the face of ecosystem collapse. This paper reinstates a human security approach.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Political Violence, Climate Change
  • Author: James Cotton
  • Publication Date: 08-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Australian National University Department of International Relations
  • Abstract: Although he was an original member from 1951 of the Department of International Relations at the Australian National University (ANU), Michael Lindsay's contribution to the discipline and to the ANU is rarely acknowledged. He is probably best known from the brief account given in the official ANU history of the second appointment to the chair. The candidate in question was Martin Wight, then reader at the London School of Economics. Having accepted the position, Wight later withdrew in controversial circumstances. In the official history it is claimed that Lindsay 'wrote to him in terms that scared him away'. In the contemporary international relations discipline, Wight, by contrast, is regarded as one of the most influential figures of his generation. For those with any awareness of this episode, Lindsay's role as, apparently, the person responsible for this path not taken is generally regarded as negative. The account offered in the official history has obscured two important points. First, setting aside issues of personality, it can be shown that Lindsay's correspondence with Wight and any differences they might have had were based upon a coherent view on Lindsay's part of the discipline and also of the work that was most appropriate to the new institution. Second, the record shows that, as he was the acting head of the Department for much of the 1950s, Lindsay played a large role in establishing its character, and was indeed immensely active, despite his junior status, in fostering interest in the discipline in the ANU and the wider community. This paper shows Lindsay to have played a strong and creative role in the discipline, one which should be more remembered and celebrated today.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Political Economy, Politics, Political Theory
  • Political Geography: Australia
  • Author: Robert Kappel
  • Publication Date: 09-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: A number of regional powers are becoming important international actors and are changing the coordinates of world politics and the global economy. The political and economicshift in favor of these regional powers has been accompanied by the relative loss of importance of the US, Japan, and the EU. The latter countries are increasingly challenged by the economic growth and the geostrategical actions of the regional powers. As the conception of and debates on regional powers have been led by political science, this paper aims to contribute to the discussion from an economics perspective. Based on the discussion of different concepts of economic power–such as those of Schumpeter, Perroux, Predöhl, or Kindleberger–concepts of technological leadership, and the global value chain approaches, the paper develops a research framework for the economics of regional powers. This framework is then tested using descriptive statistics as well as regressions analysis, with a focus on the four regional powers Brazil, China, India, and South Africa. As economic power is relational, the relationship of regional powers to other nations in the region is analyzed. According to the findings, only limited conclusions on the economics of regional powers are possible: a regional power can be described as an economy with a relatively large population and land area which plays a dominant role in trade within the region and in the regional governance. The regional power develops its technological capacities, and its businesses act regionally and globally with increasing strength.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, Power Politics
  • Political Geography: China, India, Brazil
  • Author: Bill Ristow
  • Publication Date: 09-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: National Endowment for Democracy
  • Abstract: In Ghana, a reporter goes to a press conference, and inside her press packet, there's a brown envelope containing the equivalent of a $20 bill. Not surprised, she slips it into her purse before heading back to the office to write up the event.
  • Topic: International Relations, Corruption, Crime, Mass Media
  • Author: Peter Cary
  • Publication Date: 10-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: National Endowment for Democracy
  • Abstract: A core principle of the United States is that a free and independent press is vital to the formation and maintenance of democracies. During the Cold War, the State Department's media outreach into the former Soviet Union and other Communist- leaning nations was largely limited to the broadcasts of the U.S. Information Agency (USIA). With the fall of the Berlin Wall, the effort broadened: USAID began to encourage and develop independent media in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. In the early 1990s, when the Balkans erupted in conflict, that region became the focus of assistance for media development.
  • Topic: International Relations, Cold War, Development, Mass Media, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Berlin
  • Author: Roberto Aliboni
  • Publication Date: 09-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Istituto Affari Internazionali
  • Abstract: The author examines problems related with the political identity of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), its relations with the EMP's Euro- Mediterranean "acquis" and the functioning of its institutions. While the UfM has been designed to give new momentum to the EU's cooperation with Mediterranean countries, results have hardly met ambitions so far. There is a lot the EU can do to increase the UfM profile: revise its institutional settings; create a parallel, but connected, multilateral dimension in the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy; quickly implement large-scale regional projects; expand cooperation to agriculture; and scale back the ambition that the UfM can promote political solidarity in the short- to mediumterm.
  • Topic: International Relations, Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Daniel Lemus Delgado
  • Publication Date: 08-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
  • Abstract: El presente artículo analiza la ceremonia de inauguración de los XXIX Juegos Olímpicos de Beijing y el desfile conmemorativo del 60 Aniversario del establecimiento de la República Popular China. Estos eventos son parte de la estrategia del gobierno comunista para construir la imagen de una "Gran China". Este análisis parte de un enfoque constructivista de las Relaciones Internacionales. Por lo tanto, se asume que las identidades colectivas son importantes, porque contribuyen a moldear las estructuras materiales del escenario internacional. Así, estos eventos mediáticos fortalecen la identidad colectiva del pueblo chino y con ello, la posibilidad de que el Estado chino tenga cada día un rol más importante en la arena mundial.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Communism, Mass Media
  • Political Geography: China, Israel, Asia
  • Author: Kevin Ummel
  • Publication Date: 12-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: This paper provides high-resolution estimates of the global potential and cost of utility-scale photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies and uses a spatially explicit model to identify deployment patterns that minimize the cost of greenhouse gas abatement. A global simulation is run with the goal of providing 2,000 TWh of solar power (-7% of total consumption) in 2030, taking into account least-cost siting of facilities and transmission lines and the effect of diurnal variation on project profitability and required subsidies. The American southwest, Tibetan Plateau, Sahel, and Middle East are identified as major supply areas. Solar power consumption concentrates in the United States over the next decade, diversifying to Europe and India by the early 2020's, and focusing in China in the second half of the decade—often relying upon long-distance, highvoltage transmission lines. Cost estimates suggest deployment on this scale is likely to be competitive with other prominent abatement options in the energy sector. Further development of spatially explicit energy models could help guide infrastructure planning and financing strategies both nationally and globally, elucidating a range of important questions related to renewable energy policy.
  • Topic: International Relations, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Globalization, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Middle East, Sahel
  • Author: Paul Romita, Vanessa Wyeth
  • Publication Date: 06-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Peace Institute
  • Abstract: In recent years, donor governments and international organizations such as the UN and the World Bank have developed a number of frameworks and tools to assess governance, conflict, and fragility. This report argues that there are multiple, and often contradictory, objectives underlying the development and use of such assessment tools. Underpinning this multiplicity of objectives are deep assumptions, many of which remain unstated. Different agencies tend to define the problem through their own institutional lens, and the assessment tools they create reflect these biases. As the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development—Development Assistant Committee's (OECD-DAC's) work on governance assessments has pointed out, assumptions underlying governance assessment methodologies are usually not explicit, but tend to measure governance against existing norms in OECD countries. Similarly, the different approaches to conflict assessment adopted by major bilateral and multilateral actors demonstrate conceptual and intellectual differences in their understanding of the nature of conflict; the same may be said for various donors' approaches to assessing state fragility.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Relations, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Author: Anthony Olcott
  • Publication Date: 06-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
  • Abstract: Speaking in China on November 16, 2009, President Barack Obama said, “I think that the more freely information flows, the stronger the society becomes, because then citizens of countries around the world can hold their own governments accountable. They can begin to think for themselves” [video—transcript]. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton quoted most of the same phrase two months later in her own ringing endorsement of Internet freedom, delivered in a speech at the Washington, DC, Newseum on January 21, 2010.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Globalization, International Security, Power Politics
  • Political Geography: China, Washington